December 29th, 2023: Florial, Morris, Imanaga, Mailbag

Welcome to the final post of 2023. I’m glad 2023 is almost over. The Yankees were boring and mediocre, I had to say goodbye to my cat, and I had to cancel my first real vacation in forever because I got COVID the day before I was supposed to leave. Bad year, this 2023. I’m looking forward to better things in 2024. Let’s now get to today’s post.

1. Florial traded to Guardians. For the third time this month, the Yankees have made a trade involving an outfielder. Perpetual prospect Estevan Florial was sent to the Guardians for righty Cody Morris on Tuesday, the Yankees announced. Not exactly as notable as the Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo trades, but a third December trade involving an outfielder nonetheless.

Florial turned 26 last month and he just spent a third consecutive season in Triple-A, slashing .284/.380/.565 (130 wRC+) with 28 homers in 101 games. There was basically no improvement in his strikeout (29.9%) or swinging strike (15.4%) rates, however. Florial hit .230/.324/.311 (83 wRC+) with 28.2% strikeouts in 19 games with the Yankees in September.

It seems likely Florial will be Cleveland’s fourth outfielder behind Steven Kwan, Ramón Laureano, and Myles Straw. Straw is a strong defender and is owed $19.25M from 2024-26, but the guy’s hit .229/.296/.284 (68 wRC+) with one home run in over 1,100 plate appearances the last two years. At some point enough is enough. Perhaps Florial can wrestle the center field job away from Straw in 2024.

(I’ve mentioned this before but it’s worth repeating: Cleveland’s outfielders hit .250/.312/.342 (84 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 1,997 plate appearances in 2023. An entire outfield hit 18 homers. Incredible. Other than the skeleton crew Athletics, there was probably no better landing spot for Florial. Any outfielder who hits even a tiny little bit will stay in the lineup in Cleveland.)

Florial is out of options and he’s already been outrighted off the 40-man roster once before (this April), so he has the right to elect free agency the next time he’s put through waivers. I don’t think the Guardians traded a living, breathing pitcher for Florial just to cut him and lose him at the end of Spring Training. He presumably has the inside track on a big league roster spot. I wish him luck.

The Yankees imported three left-handed hitting Major League outfielders in recent weeks (Soto, Verdugo, Trent Grisham), which all but confirmed Florial was a goner. That was obvious enough when guys like Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero, and Billy McKinney got called up ahead of him this summer. Clearly, the Yankees no longer have high hopes for Florial.

I first ranked Florial as a top 30 prospect in 2017 and he was on every one of my top 30 prospect lists from 2017 right through 2023. Too bad it didn’t work out. Maybe the Yankees wouldn’t have made the Harrison Bader/Jordan Montgomery trade if it did. Anyway, I have more to say about this trade than I thought I would, so let’s get to it.

Florial finally traded

The Yankees have developed a reputation for holding onto their prospects too long, and then not getting much when they finally do trade them. Florial joins a group that includes Chance Adams, Miguel Andújar, Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Deivi García, and others. And, for the sake of accuracy, only Adams and Florial were actually traded from that group. The rest were released or waived, so the Yankees got nothing in return.

Anyway, I don’t think that reputation is entirely fair because every single team has prospects and young players die on the vine. The Rays should’ve traded Brent Honeywell, Brendan McKay, and Luis Patiño. The Braves should have traded Ian Anderson and Touki Toussaint. The Mets should’ve traded Matt Allan. The Dodgers should’ve traded Kody Hoese. On and on we could go.

That isn’t to say the Yankees not getting much out of their young players (particularly their young hitters) isn’t a problem. It obviously is, and it’s arguably the single biggest reason they’re coming off an 82-80 record and their worst season in three decades. Prospects are gonna bust and not work out though. It happens to every team and that’s just the way it goes in this business.

The Yankees have earned and deserve a lot of criticism, particularly with their hitter development and specifically with getting young hitters to translate their minor league success into sustainable MLB success. I just think the “they should have traded him when his value was high!” stuff is a bit unfair, and textbook hindsight and revisionist history. Feels like low hanging fruit. Shrug.

(Dig through Florial’s MLBTR archive and you’ll see he was only mentioned in trade rumors involving Sonny Gray and Giancarlo Stanton, who wound up in pinstripes anyway. I’m certain the Yankees had other opportunities to trade Florial that we don’t know about, of course.)

Who is Morris?

Considering Florial cleared waivers earlier this year and can elect free agency the next time he goes through waivers, getting anything for him is a good outcome, and Morris might even qualify as a great outcome. Morris was a seventh round pick in 2018 and he overlapped with Matt Blake in 2019, when Blake was Cleveland’s minor league pitching guru. Safe to assume Blake had input into the trade.

Morris, 27, made his MLB debut in Sept. 2022 and pitched well enough (2.28 ERA and 4.34 FIP in 23.2 innings) to earn a spot on the postseason roster. You may remember him throwing two perfect innings in Game 4 of the ALDS*, his only appearance of the series (video). His return to the big leagues in 2023 did not go well. Morris allowed six runs and 16 baserunners in eight innings.

* Not for nothing, going six up and six down against the Yankees in the 2022 postseason isn’t exactly some big accomplishment lol.

The Yankees are willing to assume injury risk to get upside and that’s Morris. He’s missed a lot of time with injuries. Morris threw 242 innings from 2018-23 (he spent the 2020 pandemic season at home) and he’s never made it through a full pro season healthy. His career high is the 89 innings he threw between the two Single-A levels in 2019. Here’s the injury history:

• 2015: Tommy John surgery as a high school senior.
• 2019: Missed two weeks in July with a back strain.
• 2021: Missed first three months with a lat strain.
• 2022: Missed first three months with a teres major strain.
• 2023: Missed first 2.5 months with another teres major strain.

Morris has a nasty habit of developing an injury near his shoulder in Spring Training, and missing the first half of the season. It’s happened each of the last three years. There are some Jonathan Loáisiga vibes here as a guy with a really good arm who can’t stay healthy. Morris doesn’t have Loáisiga’s stuff, few do, but Morris similarly leaves you hoping he stays healthy.

In 85.2 career Triple-A innings, Morris has a 35.3% strikeout rate and a 16.4% swinging strike rate, and his walk rate is 8.9% away from the automated strike zone. His overall MLB numbers aren’t anything special: 3.41 ERA (5.30 FIP) with 23.2% strikeouts, 13.0% walks, 13.0% swinging strikes, and 37.5% grounders in 31.2 innings. Here’s Baseball America (subs. req’d) on Morris entering 2023:

(When) he's been healthy he's been impressive … Morris has a strong build and a powerful arm. His fastball reaches the upper 90s and sat at 95 mph in 2022. He mixes in a changeup, a sharp curveball and a cutter, which he added to his arsenal in 2021. His changeup is above-average and his cutter has quickly become a crucial pitch, accounting for about a third of his pitches. He pitches with average control, but when he's at his best, he shows even better command … (He’s) gotten to the big leagues and shown he can have success at the level. He has the stuff to start, but (the injuries mean) a role in the bullpen may be where Morris fits best.

In January, Eric Longenhagen wrote: “Morris is ready right now. Deploying him in relief allows him to make an immediate impact on a competitive big league club and might help keep him healthy, and you can still ramp up his workload over time via a multi-inning relief role that gives him a long-term path to being a starter.” That didn’t happen in 2023 though I suppose it’s still doable.

Unlike most pitchers the Yankees acquire these days, Morris is not a sinker guy. The underlying pitch data is very good – Morris can really spin his fastball and his changeup has good tumble down and away from lefties – and, at least prior to 2023, there’s a solid track record of throwing strikes. The cutter gives him an effective third pitch. It seems like, as long as Morris stays healthy, he belongs on a contender’s pitching staff somewhere. That’s a huge if though.

General rule of thumb: you’re not gonna outsmart the Guardians with pitchers. They’re the best in the business at coaching up pitchers (the Rays got a little too cocky with the Aaron Civale trade), so Morris likely is what he is. Similar to the Nick Burdi signing, keep this guy on the field and he can help, though the track record says he’ll miss time. With any luck Morris will replace the innings earmarked for Jhony Brito and/or Randy Vasquez.

Morris is still rookie and prospect eligible, though I’m not sure where a 27-year-old with his injury history fits into a top 30 prospects list at the moment. More importantly, Morris has two minor league options remaining. The Yankees need pitching and they just landed an optionable depth pitcher who can relieve and maybe start, and all it cost them was waiver fodder. Nice move.

Closing the book on the 2014-15 IFA class

Florial was the last remaining member of the well-intentioned but ill-fated 2014-15 international spending spree, and he wasn’t even a high profile signing on July 2nd, 2014, the first day of the signing period. The Yankees didn’t sign Florial until March 2015 because of a paperwork issue. It then took a few years for Florial to really jump onto the map as a prospect.

The Yankees spent more than $30M on bonuses and penalties during the 2014-15 signing period and that ushered in the bonus pool hard cap era. The Yankees made a mockery of the soft cap system and the Padres did the same thing two years later, so MLB put an end to it. Now teams can not exceed their bonus pool. Back then, you could exceed it and pay a tax on the overage.

Anyway, the Yankees gave out seven $1M+ bonuses that signing period – Florial was a $200,000 signing – and only two of those seven players reached the big leagues, and neither in a meaningful way. Here are the seven seven-figure bonuses:

1. 1B/3B Dérmis Garcia ($3.2M): 39 games with 2022 Athletics.
2. 3B Nelson Gomez ($2.25M): Never made it above Low-A.
3. OF Jonathan Amundaray ($2M): Never made it out of rookie ball.
4. OF Juan De Leon ($2M): Never made it above High-A.
5. IF Wilkerman Garcia ($1.35M): Never made it above High-A.
6. IF Hoy Jun Park ($1.2M): 1 game with Yankees, 67 games with Pirates.
7. C/1B Miguel Flames ($1M): Never made it above Low-A.

Garcia signed with the A’s as a minor league free agent two years ago, then got some big league run that summer. They dropped him from the 40-man roster in April and he spent the entire 2023 season in Triple-A. Park has bounced from the Yankees to the Pirates to the Red Sox to the Braves to the A’s. The other five players have all been out of baseball since at least 2021.

This is what the Yankees got out of the 2014-15 international signing period:

• IF Hoy Jun Park ($1.2M): 1 MLB game with Yankees, then he was half of the Clay Holmes trade.
• IF Diego Castillo ($750,000): No MLB games with Yankees, the other half of the Holmes trade.
• OF Estevan Florial ($200,000): 48 MLB games, then traded for Morris.
• RHP Miguel Yajure ($30,000): 3 MLB games with Yankees, then he was included in the Jameson Taillon trade.

Holmes rules, though I think we can safely assume the Yankees were expecting to get more from that $30M investment than 3.5 years of a great reliever, the fourth piece in a trade package for two years of a mid-rotation starter, and whatever Morris gives them. Leveraging their financial might into a massive international class was a smart move, but sheesh, it did not work out.

The 2014-15 spending spree had a negative impact beyond the wasted money too. For starters, it contributed to the bonus pool hard cap era, though I suspect that was coming no matter what. Maybe the Yankees just brought it on a few years sooner. Also, the Yankees were limited to $300,000 bonuses during the 2015-16 and 2016-17 signing periods as part of the penalties for going so far over their bonus pool during the 2014-15 signing period.

Maybe that $300,000 limit didn’t hurt too much? The Yankees did sign Oswaldo Cabrera, Deivi García, and Luis Medina during the 2015-16 signing period, and Roansy Contreras, Yoendrys Gómez, and Oswald Peraza during the 2016-17 signing period. Contreras was the headliner in the Taillon trade, Medina was part of the Frankie Montas trade, and the other guys all helped the Yankees in one way or another over the years (some still have a chance to help in the future).

Ultimately though, the 2014-15 spending spree was close to a total dud. What was expected to be a transformational international class for the farm system and organization turned into not much at all. The best thing to come out of the signing period was Holmes. Hopefully Morris is another win. So long, Estevan. Watch out for the midges.

(Using FanGraphs’ calculations, Holmes has given the Yankees about $23.5M in surplus value thus far, and it’ll be over $30M by the end of 2024 as long as he has another typical Holmes year. By the surplus value > total cost logic, the 2014-15 spending spree was a good investment. Obviously that is not the kinda ROI the Yankees had in mind though.)

2. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Shōta Imanaga. After parting with Mike King (and Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez) in the Juan Soto trade and missing out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Yankees’ No. 1 priority between now and Spring Training is pitching. Their rotation behind Gerrit Cole is heavy on injury risk and uncertainty. Reinforcements are a must.

“We’re in the market for pitching. Rotation, bullpen, combo, all of the above,” Brian Cashman told Mark Sanchez at the Winter Meetings. “... It’s not going to be just (Soto and Alex Verdugo). We got to continue working at what else we can add to this roster.”

The free agent class wasn’t great to begin with and it’s been thinned out further in recent weeks. Yamamoto signed, Aaron Nola signed, Eduardo Rodriguez signed, and so did second tier guys like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. The trade market is appealing (Corbin Burnes, etc.), but, if the Yankees can solve their problems with money, they should just do that and keep their prospects.

One thing this free agent class has is international players. Yamamoto and Korean center fielder Jung-Hoo Lee headlined the class. There’s also Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez, who the Yankees are said to have interest in, a handful of relievers, and also Yokohoma DeNA BayStars lefty Shōta Imanaga. According to projected 2024 WAR, Imanaga is one of the top free agent starters still on the market:

1. Blake Snell: +3.3 WAR
2. Jordan Montgomery: +3.2 WAR
3. Shōta Imanaga: +2.6 WAR
4. Marcus Stroman: +2.6 WAR
5. Lucas Giolito: +2.3 WAR

It’s easy to think Imanaga is Kei Igawa 2.0, the diminutive lefty the Yankees overpay after missing out on the top guy. Back then it was Daisuke Matsuzaka. This year it was Yamamoto. That’s not fair though. Igawa has no bearing on Imanaga, plus teams have so much more information about Japanese players now. Pitch data, batted ball data, more scouting looks, etc.

The Yankees scouted Imanaga throughout this past season (they scout everyone though) and, a few weeks ago, it was finally reported they have interest in him. They see him as a backup plan to Yamamoto, along with several other teams. Imanaga's MLBTR archive indicates the Cubs, Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Tigers, and pre-Yamamoto Dodgers all have interest in him as well.

Now that the Yankees have missed out on Yamamoto, it’s time to take a deep dive into Imanaga, and see how he stacks up and whether he makes sense for the Yankees. Let’s get to it.

Background

Imanaga, 30, was a first round pick in the 2015 NPB draft and a full-time rotation member the next year. He pitched very well as a rookie and again as a sophomore (combined 2.86 ERA with 294 strikeouts in 299 innings from 2016-17), but he struggled in 2018 (4.68 ERA in 140.1 innings), so much so that he went to the Australian Baseball League in the offseason to get more work.

During his six-start ABL stint, Imanaga allowed two earned runs in 35 innings. He struck out 57 and walked one, and he still holds the ABL single-season records in WHIP (0.42) and walk rate (0.3 BB/9). The extra work paid off: Imanaga threw a career high 170 innings with a 2.81 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 2019. That earned him his first All-Star Game selection.

An injury (more on that later) and the pandemic cut Imanaga’s 2020 season short. Here’s what he’s done over the last three full seasons:

Imanaga threw a no-hitter in 2022, led the league in strikeouts in 2023, and is a two-time All-Star (2019 and 2023). He’s never won the Eiji Sawamura Award*, NPB’s Cy Young equivalent, mostly because Yamamoto is on another level and kept winning it during Imanaga’s best seasons. Imanaga has been among NPB’s top strikeout pitchers his entire career.

* NPB names separate MVPs for the Central League and Pacific League, but the Sawamura Award is one award covering both leagues. Weird.

Japan had a full four-man rotation for the World Baseball Classic – Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, Yamamoto – so Imanaga worked out of the bullpen. He did, however, draw the start in the Championship Game against USA. Japan piggybacked Sasaki and Yamamoto against Mexico the day before to get to the Championship Game, and they wanted to use Darvish and Ohtani in relief in the title game.

Imanaga allowed a solo home run to Trea Turner (video) in two otherwise clean innings of work in the Championship Game. It was a planned bullpen game for Japan, plus Imanaga was not stretched out after pitching in relief earlier in the tournament, hence only two innings. All told, he allowed two runs in six innings in the WBC, and struck out seven. He walked zero.

Pitch mix

I can tell you one thing: the algorithms love Imanaga. He led all WBC pitchers in Stuff+, which grades a pitcher’s stuff based on velocity, spin, movement, and all that. Imanaga was ahead of Ohtani, Sasaki, Yamamoto, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo López, and everyone else who pitched in the WBC. Small sample, of course, but pitch traits tend to stabilize very quickly.

Similar to Yamamoto, Imanaga is on the small side (listed at 5-foot-10 and 190 lbs.) and he uses his height to his advantage to get tremendous carry on his fastball. Aram Leighton has the fancy stats on Imanaga’s four-seamer and found the best MLB equivalent is 2022 Nestor Cortes. 2023 Imanaga and 2022 Nestor had similar velocity, release points, movement, etc. on their four-seamers. Here’s more from Leighton:

The most similar fastball to Imanaga’s is that of Cortes, also sitting a half tick below 92 MPH, but misses plenty of barrels by averaging more than 19 inches of induced vertical break. While there’s no doubting the value of a fastball sitting in the mid 90s rather than the low 90s, shape can be equally, if not more, important.

According to Driveline, four seam fastballs at 91 MPH with between 18-20 inches of induced vertical break will pick up the same amount of whiff as a four seamer at 97 MPH with 12-14 inches of induced vertical break. Just as pitchers can touch higher velocities, they can also throw fastballs that flash more elite characteristics. Despite averaging around 19 inches of IVB, Imanaga will mix in plenty of fastballs with 20+ inches of IVB.

Imanaga has been touted as an elite fastball carry guy and the data backs it up. His four-seamer has more “rise” than most in the same velocity range, which really just means it does not drop as much as expected, so hitters swing under it. Imanaga’s fastball command is said to be elite – his nickname is “The Throwing Philosopher” – so despite below average velocity, it’s a great pitch.

Opinions on the secondary pitches vary. Baseball America (subs. req’d) and Leighton say the splitter is Imanaga's best secondary pitch while FanGraphs prefers his slider. The splitter is a low-80s pitch with low spin (i.e. good downward action) and Imanaga can vary the break on his low-80s slider, so it can be a traditional slider or a big ol’ sweeper. Here’s video. The behind the plate view at the 0:30 mark is fantastic. I’m jealous they have this in NPB and we don’t in MLB.

The four-seamer, splitter, and slider are Imanaga’s top three offerings. He also features a low-80s changeup that isn’t consistent and might be worth shelving entirely since he already has the splitter, a mid-80s cutter he should probably throw more often, and a loopy low-70s curveball that he’ll flip in for the occasional surprise called strike. Here’s Leighton’s summation:

With multiple variations of both of his secondary offerings [splitter and changeup, slider and sweeper], there could be a feeling out process for Imanaga as he gets used to which pitches are easiest for him to command with the less-tacky MLB baseball as well as simply seeing what gets more whiffs against MLB competition. The good news is it’s great to have options, and he can probably get away with 60% fastball usage in spurts. That said, his fastball and splitter have each looked like plus pitches through stretches, and the sweeper variation of his slider appears to be a well above average offering to get same-handed hitters out. Mix in a traditional slider along with a cutter, changeup, and curveball, and you get a unique arsenal capable of making Imanaga a strong middle-rotation option in the toughest league in the world.

Leighton is the high man on Imanaga. Baseball America (subs. req’d) and FanGraphs both say he fits best as a No. 4-5 starter who shifts to the bullpen come postseason time. “Perhaps I’m underrating the impact Imanaga’s command will have on his overall performance, but I think most of his value will be in the volume of innings he works rather than his pound-for-pound impact,” says the FanGraphs scouting report.

There are two primary concerns, as best I can tell. One, Imanaga already works with below average fastball velocity – 92 mph in 2023 was his career high average fastball – and that’s pitching on a once a week schedule in Japan. What happens when he pitches every fifth or sixth day? And he gets a little deeper into his 30s? Imanaga’s fastball plays better than its velocity because of the rise and his command, but that will only go so far. Velocity equals margin of error.

And two, the home runs. NPB had something of a dead ball year in 2023 – Yamamoto allowed two (2) home runs in 171 innings – and Imanaga’s 1.02 HR/9 was well above the 0.69 HR/9 league average. Excluding the 2020 pandemic season, Imanaga’s career best is a 0.79 HR/9 in 2022. That was almost exactly the NPB average (0.81 HR/9) that season. His best home run prevention year was a league average home run rate.

There were 1,270 home runs hit in NPB during the entire 2023 season. There were 1,071 home runs hit just this August in MLB. These are two extremely different home run environments. NPB is a contact league, and despite that, Imanaga has been homer prone, relatively speaking. Also, Imanaga pitched in the Central League. That’s the non-DH league. The Central League is the only high level pro league in the world where pitchers still hit. (He’s a career .185/.207/.213 hitter, by the way.)

Imanaga had a 36% ground ball rate in 2023 and the NPB average hovers in the 45% to 50% range each year. Not all fly balls are bad, Cole and (when healthy) Cortes get a lot of weak fly balls that aren’t hit all that deep, but if Imanaga at his best in NPB is still giving up that many home runs, it’s fair to wonder how that will translate to MLB, a league with less forgiving ballparks (including Yankee Stadium) and more powerful hitters.

The pluses are great command and premium bat-missing ability despite playing in a league that prioritizes contact. The negatives are questions about how Imanaga’s stuff will translate to the MLB ball and schedule, and the dingers. You can be both a good pitcher and home run prone (see: Cole in 2022) but it is a difficult needle to thread.

Injury history

Imanaga has had one significant injury in his career. He was hampered by a shoulder issue in 2020 and was eventually shut down that August. That October, Imanaga underwent a clean up procedure that kept him out the first few weeks of 2021. Shoulder surgery is never good, though Imanaga’s had no issues with the shoulder since, and the fact he set a new career best in average fastball velocity in 2023 suggests he’s healthy and his shoulder is sound.

Contract projections

For the most part contract projections for pitchers have been low this offseason because the demand greatly outweighs the supply. That was especially true with Yamamoto, though he’s a special case given his age and pedigree. No other free agent pitcher will clear his contract projections by nine figures. Here are the projections for Imanaga:

• The Athletic (subs. req’d): 4 years and $52M ($13M per year)
• ESPN (subs. req’d): 4 years and $68M ($17M per year)
• FanGraphs: 4 years and $66M ($16.5M per year)
• MLBTR: 5 years and $85M ($17M per year)

I would be surprised if Imanaga only gets four guaranteed years in this free agent class. Five years is more likely (maybe with an opt out). Unlike Yamamoto, we have a good benchmark for an Imanaga contract: Kodai Senga. The Mets gave Senga five years and $75M a few weeks before his 30th birthday last offseason. Imanaga turned 30 in September, so they came over at roughly the same age.

Senga was a much more accomplished pitcher in NPB – Imanaga has only one season with an ERA (2.04 in 2022) lower than Senga’s career ERA in NPB (2.42) – and his contract looks like a bargain now. That said, Senga is recent evidence a 30-year-old NPB pitcher can come over here and have success right away. That plus the thin pitching market works to Imanaga’s advantage.

I think Imanaga will beat Senga’s contract and $100M is not out of the question, especially if the Giant are serious. They seemingly have to offer an outsized contract just to get their foot in the door with a free agent these days. Imanaga should be able to beat five years at $15M a year – Senga’s contract – given the lack of quality free agent alternatives.

(Assuming he signs a contract worth more than $50M, the posting fee owed to the BayStars will be $9.375M plus 15% on everything over $50M. An $85M contract would have a $14.625M fee.)

Imanaga’s 45-day posting window ends at 5pm ET on Thursday, Jan. 11th. Exactly one week after Yamamoto’s would have ended. That's not a coincidence. Alex Speier says Imanaga’s representatives intentionally delayed his posting so it would not overlap exactly with Yamamoto’s. They want to capitalize on the market when all the desperate teams that miss out on Yamamoto turn to their Plan Bs.

Speier adds Imanaga is planning to come to the United States after New Years. I have to think he will have his list whittled down to a few finalists by then. That’ll give him 7-10 days to meet with teams in-person and/or visit ballparks. Since he’s not coming stateside until the middle of next week at the earliest, Imanaga’s free agency could go right down to the final day.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

I can’t shake the home run heebie-jeebies. NPB is the best league in the world outside MLB and Imanaga was very successful there, but he’s also been home run prone throughout his career, and that’s in a league that prioritizes contact. What happens when he faces an MLB lineup with 6-7 (8-9?) hitters looking to launch the ball with every swing? In Yankee Stadium, no less?

Imanaga is left-handed, which would limit short porch cheapies to some extent, and NPB pitchers have a track record of coming to MLB and missing more bats given the different hitting styles. Senga had a 27.4% strikeout rate in Japan in 2022 and a 29.1% strikeout rate with the Mets in 2023. Masahiro Tanaka’s strikeout rate jumped from 22.3% to 26.0% when he made the move. On and on we could go.

Imanaga has been a premium bat-misser in Japan – his 29.5% strikeout rate this past season was better than Yamamoto’s (26.7%) – so he could run up some big strikeout totals in MLB. That could curb the home run issues some, assuming of course his velocity and overall stuff doesn’t take a step back working every fifth or sixth day rather than every seventh.

I’m intrigued by Imanaga and I think he would be a worthwhile investment for another team with a different ballpark in another situation. The Giants make a lot of sense given their pitching needs and spacious home run suppressing ballpark. Maybe the Mets too? Citi Field still plays somewhat big and their rotation is thin. The Padres would work if they weren’t cutting payroll.

For the Yankees, I don’t think Imanaga’s a fit. His homer issues are worrisome in Yankee Stadium, first and foremost, plus they need certainty in their rotation. Cortes is coming off a pretty serious shoulder injury, Carlos Rodón was hurt and ineffective this year, and Clarke Schmidt had a huge workload increase. Feels like the Yankees have already met their quota for uncertainty. They need reliable innings, something I’m not sure Imanaga offers.

If the projections are accurate and Imanaga’s looking at five years and $15M to $17M a year, then the Yankees should just go the extra mile and sign Snell or Montgomery, and get someone with an MLB track record. We have a pretty good idea what those guys are and what they offer. If Imanaga were, say, 25 instead of 30, then I’d be more interested. If the Yankees are willing to sink 5+ years into a 30-something, then I say go for the known commodity with Snell or Montgomery.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Two notable Blue Jays signings this week. First, they brought back Kevin Kiermaier on a one-year contract worth $10.5M. I gave him one year and $10M with a vesting option as part of the Offseason Plan, so I was in the ballpark. Obviously Kiermaier was no longer a fit for the Yankees after the Trent Grisham, Juan Soto, and Alex Verdugo trades. And second, the Blue Jays signed old pal Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year contract worth $15M, with another million bucks in incentives. Good for him. It’s not his fault the Yankees misevaluated him as an everyday shortstop. The Yankees had interest in a reunion with Kiner-Falefa and they have an open bench spot, but two years and $15M? Thanks but no thanks. I suppose Toronto could still sign Cody Bellinger and rotate their outfielders through the DH spot (until Kiermaier and/or George Springer get hurt), but they aggressively pursued Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and missed out on all three. They are dangerously close to running it back with the same team in 2024, only with a Kiner-Falefa/Cavan Biggio platoon at third base instead of Matt Chapman. After the last few years, I would be less than thrilled with that if I were a Blue Jays fan. Not my problem though … And finally, the Dodgers designated Bryan Hudson for assignment to clear 40-man roster space for Yamamoto earlier this week. I mentioned him a few weeks ago as someone the Yankees should have interest in whenever Los Angeles cut bait. Hudson, 26, is a 6-foot-8 lefty with a low-to-mid-90s fastball that averaged close to 20 inches of induced vertical break in Triple-A this past season, meaning it plays better than the radar gun reading. He has two minor league options remaining and he had a 35.7% strikeout rate and 12.2% swinging strike rate in Triple-A in 2023 (here’s video), and the Yankees have two open 40-man roster spots and a thin lefty reliever depth chart. Hudson’s worth jumping the waiver line with a cash or player to be named later trade. Not sure he’ll make it to the Yankees on waivers. (It says a lot about the state of the two organizations that the Dodgers are DFAing guys the Yankees should pick up because they have open multiple open 40-man spots as New Years approaches.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Geoff asks: The obvious drawback with Blake Snell is that he doesn't go deep into games (you've mentioned his habit of nibbling and running up pitch counts multiple times). Why does he do this? Does he need this approach to have success? It clearly reduces the impact he can have on any one game. Do you think it could work for the Yankees to sign him, and then work with him on being more efficient with his pitch counts, i.e. attack the strike zone and trust his nasty stuff?

Throwing strikes is hard! If anyone could do it, or even an additional 50% could do it, there would be a lot less offense than there is now. Snell’s stuff is so good that he can miss bats in the strike zone consistently, which is the kinda thing that separates great pitchers from good pitchers, but he doesn’t pitch in the zone enough. Some of it is by design (to get chases). A lot of it is not.

For what it’s worth, Snell is fully aware of his walk problems, and he said he’s accepted they are just part of who he is as a pitcher. He began to focus on himself and what he can control, and stopped worrying about what everyone says about him. From Kevin Acee in September:

“I’m pitching,” he said. “And if I run out of pitches, I run out of pitches. I’m here to pitch. I’m not here to, ‘Oh, let me navigate and get to seven, eight, nine.’ That’s not me.”

…

“It’s never enough,” Snell said. “Like what I’m doing right now — doesn’t matter. ‘He needs to get the walks down.’ That’s highlighted with everything I’m doing. ‘Doesn’t matter! The walks!’”

…

“I don’t look at them as a bad thing,” Snell said of walks. “I used to think of them as bad. I used to think about what would happen and turn that into a negative. What you visualize anything as is what is going to happen.”

I’ve said this before but I think Snell has become underrated. There is so much attention on the walks and I get it, but he’s a lefty with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball and two swing-and-miss breaking balls, and truly elite bat-missing ability. Snell has a career 29.7% strikeout rate and 14.1% swinging strike rate. Those are great numbers for a reliever, and he’s doing it as a starter.

Snell pitched to a 3.85 ERA (3.44 FIP) with a 31.9% strikeout rate in the four seasons between his two Cy Young awards. When he’s on, he’s as good as anyone. When he’s not, he’s still an above-average starter, albeit one who walks too many and doesn’t pitch deep into games. (Who pitches deep into games these days anyway? Forget 200 innings. Only 25 pitchers threw even 180 innings in 2023, including Snell.)

Two things can be true: Snell is a very good pitcher who has demonstrated the ability to be great for long stretches of time – the guy allowed 19 runs in his final 23 starts this year – and Snell is a tough watch. Just aesthetically, it’s a lot of deep counts and long innings. It’s like watching the Yankees version of Sonny Gray, only that’s who Snell is all the time, even when he’s at his best. Clearly though, Snell would make the Yankees better. He has the ability to dominate.

Whichever team signs Snell will try to get him to cut down on the walks, I’m sure of it, but I’m not sure it’s possible. At this point, this may just be who Snell is, and he’s accepted that and he’s thrived with that mindset. That doesn’t mean I have to accept it too. The watchability component of baseball matters to me more with each passing year and Snell’s not all that watchable. Very good pitcher – an underrated pitcher – but not someone I enjoy watching. It is what it is.

(If the Yankees sign Snell, they have to sign his personal catcher too, right? He just won the NL Cy Young! You can’t deny him his personal catcher!)

Adam asks: With the CF depth chart being as shallow as it is, do you think it would be prudent for the Yanks to give Peraza some reps in CF during spring training? With the infield being full, I was trying to figure out a way to get Peraza in the lineup more frequently - by doing this, they could eventually possibly platoon Grisham and Peraza in CF (if the DH spot opens up) based on lefty/righty matchups. Oswaldo Cabrera could potentially fit in this scenario as well but I'm more eager to see Peraza play close to every day in positions that can take advantage of his great defense.

Yeah, they might as well, right? We know Oswald Peraza can play the infield. It’s not like he needs more work there (though obviously you can always get better, etc.). He’s speedy and he seems to have good defensive awareness. Peraza might just be a natural in center field, which would create the possibility of more playing time at the very least. That’s not a bad thing.

Ultimately, Peraza needs to hit. Versatility and defense only go so far. Peraza didn’t stand out at the plate late this season (though this shows there’s legit pop in his bat) and he’s a career .216/.298/.306 (75 wRC+) hitter in 248 big league plate appearances. And, frankly, Peraza’s .268/.357/.479 (108 wRC+) line in Triple-A this year doesn’t stand out either. Not when he was repeating the level and Triple-A offense was inflated as much as it was.

If Peraza hits, the Yankees will find playing time for him, be it at third base or in center field or wherever. He’ll turn only 24 in June, so he’s still a young man, but 2024 feels like a big year for Peraza. He’s done all he needs to do in the minors and we know he can defend. Now Peraza has to show the Yankees he can hit and deserves a lineup spot. Giving him a look in center is a fine idea. In the end, it’ll only matter if he hits more than he has.

Sam asks: Which player in baseball is the most value from a trade perspective (ignoring no-trades)? Who would fetch the biggest package in trade? So taking into account contract, years of control, position, injury history, etc. Have to ignore free agents for this purpose. If the Dodgers decided to flip Shohei tomorrow, would they get a bigger package of prospects than if say the Yankees decided to trade Jasson? Is Jose Ramirez on a team friendly deal worth more? Maybe one of the Braves locked up young stars?

There’s a correct answer to this question: Ronald Acuña Jr. has the most trade value in baseball. Usually you can debate who has more trade value, who is the better prospect, etc., but not in this case. The most valuable trade commodity in baseball is pretty clearly Acuña. Consider:

• He hit .337/.416/.597 (170 wRC+) with 41 homers, 73 steals, and nearly as many walks (10.9%) as strikeouts (11.4%) in 2023.
• In six MLB seasons Acuña’s a career .292/.381/.437 (143 wRC+) hitter who’s averaged 32 homers and 36 steals per 600 plate appearances.
• The Braves owe him $17M a year from 2024-26 with $17M club options for 2027 ($10M buyout) and 2028 (no buyout).
• Acuña turned 26 11 days ago.

Prime age, superstar performance, a contract that pays him about a third of what he’s worth. Not sure how a player can be more valuable than that. Acuña would have been a free agent this offseason had he not signed his extension and had the Braves not manipulated his service time. What would he have gotten this offseason? $50M a year for 14 years? Acuña might’ve been the most sought after free agent in baseball history. I don’t think that’s hyperbole.

It might not even be possible for a team to put together a trade package good enough to get Acuña. Well, that’s not true. The Braves would listen if the Mariners put Julio Rodríguez and George Kirby on the table, or the Diamondbacks offered Corbin Carroll and Zac Gallen, but how realistic is that? Not very. Point is, offering your top two prospects for Acuña doesn’t even get your foot in the door.

Carroll and Rodríguez are the only other players I’d consider for the top trade value spot. Carroll has a team-friendly contract ($100M through 2030 with a club option for 2031), but he has just one full MLB season under his belt and a nasty shoulder injury history. Julio is awesome. Just not Acuña awesome. There’s also real risk in his contract with that five-year, $100M player option in 2030 if things unexpectedly go south. It can happen (see: Sizemore, Grady).

The trade value tiers to me are Acuña, then Carroll and Rodríguez, then Yordan Alvarez, Gunnar Henderson, and Adley Rutschman in some order. José Ramírez is up there, though he turned 31 in September, so he’s not young anymore. With Sandy Alcantara’s elbow giving out, I’d go with Logan Webb as the pitcher with the most trade value, narrowly ahead of Spencer Strider.

Juan Soto has the most trade value among Yankees and that’s not exactly a good sign for the organization seeing how he’s a year away from free agency. Anthony Volpe is next and he was not good offensively in 2023. Jasson Domínguez had a great week in the big leagues and that’s all it was, a great week. Anyone can have a great week (Franchy Cordero had a great week in April!). Jasson had a .702 OPS in Double-A as late as July 1st. El Marciano’s still got some proving to do.

Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge make too much money for too many years to have significant trade value. In a straight trade, with the Yankees eating no money, I bet they’d get better offers for Gleyber Torres or Clarke Schmidt than Cole or Judge. They’d have to pay down money to trade Cole or Judge because there’s nothing MLB teams hate more than paying market rate for production. To answer the original question, it’s Acuña, and I don’t think it’s up for debate.

Eric asks: If the Yankees really wanted to be the Yankees again could you see them using the money they were going to commit to Yamamoto and spinning that into a Jordan Hicks and Josh Hader signing then trading for either Cease or Burnes to be a #2 behind Cole? Yes I am crazy and no chance this happens but wouldn't that really put this team in the conversation for a championship again.

Jordan Hicks, yes. I wrote about him a few weeks ago and can see that happening. Josh Hader? Eh, I’m not sure the Yankees are going to venture into $100M territory for a reliever. Edwin Díaz’s deal with the Mets is the reliever record for total guarantee ($102M) and average annual value ($20.4M), and as good as Díaz has been, Hader’s had fewer ups and downs in his career. I would guess he wants to at least match Díaz’s contract, and more likely beat it.

The Yankees are not against setting reliever contract records. Mariano Rivera was the highest paid reliever basically every year from 2000 through the end of his career. If you want to exclude Rivera as a special case, the Yankees gave Aroldis Chapman five years and $85M, which was the reliever record before Díaz’s contract. Give the Yankees a truth serum though, and I think they’d tell you they regret the Chapman deal. He was volatile and, at the end, a headache.

Hader, 30 in April, is similar to Chapman as an extreme strikeout lefty (36.8% in 2023) who walks too many (13.0% in 2023) and prefers to be used as an old school three outs closer. He flat out refused to make himself available to get four outs in a game in September. Flexible bullpens are nice, but having a great closer is nice too. Having that set guy you can count on in the ninth inning gives you peace of mind and that’s Hader. He’s a three-out closer. No more, no less.

The Yankees can afford a $20M a year closer. The money is not an issue. I just question whether they want to lock themselves into another long-term, big money reliever after the Chapman experience. Can you get Hicks and Robert Stephenson on identical 3-4 year contracts at $10M a year? I’d rather spend $20M a year on those two than Hader given a) comparable performance, and b) how many bullpen spots you have to fill each year. We haven’t heard anything connecting the Yankees to Hader yet. This late in the offseason, that’s usually a sign they’re not interested.

Paul asks: There are rules around how many pitchers/position players you're allowed on a roster. Shohei had his own set of rules that allow him to count as both. What is required for someone to count as both? Do they need to play a certain amount in each capacity? Will Shohei only count as a position player in 2024, since he won't be pitching?

The 26-man roster has a 13-pitcher maximum. A team can carry 12 pitchers and 14 position players, but not 14 pitchers and 12 position players. Every player must be designated as a pitcher or position player unless they qualify as a two-way player. Two-way player status allows the team to slot him into either a pitcher or position player roster spot.

To qualify as a two-way player, the player must do the following in the current or previous season:

• Throw at least 20 innings.
• Get at least three plate appearances in 20 games.

MLB had to come up with the two-way designation because of Ohtani. He’s the only player in the league who meets the criteria (duh) and the Angels put him into a position player roster spot, allowing them to carry 13 pitchers plus Ohtani the last few years.

Ohtani will lose his two-way status after 2024 because he won’t pitch next year. That just means he’ll open 2025 as a position player, then regain two-way status after four starts or so, when he's still occupy a position player spot and the Dodgers will carry 13 actual pitchers. Essentially, the two-way designation allows teams to carry 14 pitchers. It’s a way to shift a pitcher into a position player roster spot.

Brian asks: With a lull in the Hot Stove, I wanted to write about Posada's HOF candidacy. I know he was quickly off the ballot, did he not get a fair shake? I saw a graphic on Twitter over the weekend that had Baseball Reference comparisons between Posada, Posey and Mauer and Jorge and Posey were remarkably similar. Posey is considered a shoo-in. Seems unfair to me and I think catchers should be compared to other catchers in the HOF not to the average HOF'er at any position, no?

It was easier to find that Baseball Reference graphic than I expected. Here it is (full-size image):

I would vote for Mauer and Posey, though I’m not sure I agree Posey’s a shoo-in. Then again, as I write this Thursday afternoon, Mauer’s at 81% on the Hall of Fame tracker with 16% of ballots known. That’s not a huge sample and the non-public ballots tend to drag down everyone’s voting percentage, but Mauer is doing better than I expected. Maybe Posey really is a shoo-in.

I was disappointed Posada was one and done on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2017. He deserved better than that given his impactful bat and longevity. Then again, if you don’t think a guy is a Hall of Famer, what difference does it make if he’s one and done? The Hall of Fame is binary. Either you’re in or you’re out. The path you take there is ultimately irrelevant.

Posada is one of the best hitting catchers ever. For starters, only 43 players have at least 5,000 plate appearances as a catcher, and Posada is one of them. Here are his ranks among those 43 players (these are stats as a catcher only, no DH time or anything like that):

On a rate basis, Posada is one of the five best hitting catchers ever, and his 12,876 innings behind the plate are 20th all-time. Those are just regular season innings too. Posada caught another 996.1 innings in the postseason, or roughly 111 games worth. That’s close to another full season's workload for a starting catcher, and postseason games are intense, physically and mentally.

Posada is a top five hitting catcher on a rate basis and he has a top 20 workload. No, he was not a great defender, though he was average-ish most of his career. It wasn’t until he was deep into his 30s that his defense became an issue. Five All-Star Games, five World Series rings (a key player for four of them), five Silver Sluggers, two top six finishes in the MVP voting. Not bad for a second baseman drafted in the 24th round.

Jay Jaffe’s JAWS says Posada is below the established Hall of Fame standard for catchers in career value but is right there in peak value. He’s 19th all-time in JAWS, ahead of a few Hall of Famers (Rick Ferrell, Ernie Lombardi) but behind several non-Hall of Famers, including Mauer (seventh all-time in JAWS), Posey (14th), Thurman Munson (12th), and Gene Tenace (13th). Jason Kendall is right there with Posada in JAWS, Russell Martin isn’t too far behind them, and J.T. Realmuto is gaining.

There are only 19 catchers in the Hall of Fame. They are underrepresented. It’s crazy to me that Ted Simmons, an eight-time All-Star who hit .300/.370/.471 (132 OPS+) during his peak from 1972-80 and finished with +50.3 WAR in his career, fell off the ballot in his first year of eligibility in 1994. He didn’t get into the Hall of Fame until one of the eras committees put him in 2020.

Catchers don’t get a fair shake come Hall of Fame voting time – the beating these guys take is unbelievable, it’s a miracle any of them hit .200 considering they all have hamburger for hands – and I would have voted for Posada. I would vote for Mauer, Munson, Posey, and Yadier Molina too. Posada is a top 20-25 catcher in baseball history. I believe the Hall of Fame standard for catchers is too high and Posada belongs in Cooperstown. Maybe an era committee will let him in one of these years.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)