December 26th, 2023: Rodriguez, Soler, González, Burdi

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone. I hope Santa left you something better than the Josh Donaldson trade under the tree. What a gift that was, eh? Let’s get today’s post. I was tied up with Christmas and family stuff over the weekend, so I stuck to the latest news and kept today’s post a little shorter than usual.

1. Latest hot stove rumors. The Yankees are one of six teams to commit $0 to Major League free agents this offseason. The others: Blue Jays, Cubs, Marlins, Rockies, and Twins. That’ll change soon enough, and of course the Yankees traded for Juan Soto (and Alex Verdugo), but yeah, zero dollars spent on MLB free agents so far. Here’s the latest from the rumor mill.

Yankees didn’t want to pay Yamamoto more than Cole

I thought I was done with the Yoshinobu Yamamoto ranting but I guess not. Over the weekend Jon Heyman reported two things of note. First, the Yankees declined to match the $325M winning bid by the Dodgers because they felt $300M was the “right” offer. Unfortunately for them, players decide what the “right” offer is in free agency, not the Yankees.

And second, the Yankees didn’t offer more because they don’t believe Yamamoto should have a larger contract than Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young winner and the sport’s best pitcher. Yamamoto’s $325M contract narrowly edges out Cole’s $324M deal as the largest pitching contract in history. Yamamoto has a lower average annual value because his deal is stretched out over 12 years rather than nine, but it is more total dollars.

I seriously doubt Cole cares about his contract record being broken. He’s a hardcore union guy who thanked Curt Flood during his introductory press conference and was on the MLBPA’s executive board for years. Cole’s smart. He understands contract inflation over time, and as a union leader, he’s presumably happy to see the contract bar moved up. Plus I’m pretty sure Cole wants a ring and wants the Yankees to get better above all.

The Yankees offered the guy $300M, so obviously they think Yamamoto’s the real deal. They wouldn’t go higher and they have their reasons. The Yankees are in damage control mode now and I suspect they threw the Cole thing out there as fan service, because a big chunk of the fan base will say yeah that’s right, you can’t pay a guy who hasn’t thrown a pitch in MLB more than Cole. But dragging Cole into it is weak. Just take the L. Own up to making the third best offer and leave your players out of it.

(The Yankees will pick up their club option to void Cole’s opt out next year, turning his nine-year, $324M contract into a 10-year, $360M contract. He’s getting the record back anyway.)

Yankees interested in Rodriguez

Count the Yankees among the teams with interest in Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez, according to Francys Romero. They attended his showcase a few weeks ago. Free agency and the pitching market in particular should pick up now that Yamamoto has signed, and once the holidays are over. Rodriguez will turn 27 in March. His age alone makes him appealing.

Rodriguez has been one of the top setup men in Japan the last few seasons, though he did not pitch in 2023. He asked the Chunichi Dragons to let him out of contract so he could sign with an MLB team after the World Baseball Classic, and after they said no, Rodriguez broke his contract and went home for the season. Chunichi released him a few weeks ago.

From 2021-22, Rodriguez pitched to a 2.29 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate in 148.2 innings. He went from a 12.1% walk rate in 2021 to an 8.3% walk rate in 2022. Rodriguez served as Cuba’s No. 1 starter in the WBC and there is some thought he can start. Here is Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d) from earlier this month (here’s video):

Rodriguez is an aggressive power pitcher whose stuff and performance keep improving. His four-seam fastball is now a plus pitch that sits 94-96 mph and touches 100 with natural cut. He also has a 93-96 mph two-seamer with hard armside run. Rodriguez’s main secondary pitch is an above-average, 83-86 mph slider with vertical bite and solid depth. He primarily throws his fastballs and slider and is able to dominate with them. Rodriguez lacks touch on his softer offerings. He has inconsistent feel for his fringy splitter and below-average curveball and rarely throws them. Rodriguez is a volatile, highly emotional pitcher prone to overthrowing and struggles to throttle down. He has an effortful delivery and arm action and fringy control overall … Rodriguez will get a chance to start, but his arsenal and demeanor fit best in relief. He projects to be a hard-throwing but inconsistent No. 5 starter or seventh-inning setup man.

The FanGraphs updated scouting report notes Rodriguez was ineffective as a starter in Japan earlier in his career, though “he was nasty across 65-to-70 pitches in each of his two WBC starts,” holding his velocity and stuff throughout. They liken him to Pete Fairbanks minus a little velocity as a reliever, and note he’s untested as a regular rotation member.

There is definitely something to be said for learning how to get outs in the bullpen and then using that experience to get outs as a starter. Luis Severino did it after 2016 and, more recently, Mike King did it as well. King as a starter was pretty ordinary in 2020 and early in 2021. He moved to the bullpen, figured things out, and looked much better as a starter late in 2023.

Contract projections put Rodriguez in the 3-4 years at $8M to $12M a year range. I have no idea how to value a guy like this. He’s young and all indications are his floor is a good reliever, though he also might be able to start. Do you give him three years and $10M a year with incentives tied to starts, and boost his salary that way? $10M a year is high-end setup man money these days.

It only takes one team to believe in Rodriguez as a starter and give him a rotation spot no questions asked, and pay him accordingly. Free agents don’t sign the average contract offer or the average contract projection. They take the offer that’s bigger than the rest, and I’m willing to bet at least one of the 30 teams is willing to commit to Rodriguez as a starter. Maybe it’ll even be the Yankees.

I’m not sure what to make of Rodriguez or what’s an appropriate contract. The Yankees need help up and down the pitching staff, so I’m sure he’d fit in somewhere. It’s just a question of where, exactly, and how you price out that uncertainty. Anyway, expect the Rodriguez market to pick up soon. Wouldn’t surprise me if comes off the board quickly given his age.

Soler on the radar (?)

This is a weird one. According to Romero, the Yankees have shown interest in Jorge Soler. Soler, 32 in February, slashed .250/.341/.512 (126 wRC+) with 36 home runs with the Marlins in 2023. He then declined his $13M player option to enter free agency. Soler’s greatest accomplishment is making me look smart after I picked him to win World Series MVP in 2021. He’s forever cool with me.

Anyway, this is a weird rumor not because Soler isn’t good, but because there’s no obvious fit with the Yankees. There are only two ways this rumor makes sense:

• The Yankees showed interest in Soler weeks ago, before the Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo trades solved the outfield problem.
• The Yankees are planning to release Giancarlo Stanton and want Soler at DH.

Needless to say, the first bullet point is much more likely than the second. It is a near certainty the Yankees will one day release Stanton, but I do not think that day is imminent. He has four years remaining on his contract and I think we’re in for a few “we think he’s close” years before the Yankees cut Giancarlo. The DFA Stanton watch figures to begin in earnest in 2026.

Soler can really hit. He’s gotten his strikeout (24.3% in 2013) and swinging strike (11.0%) rates down to manageable levels and he’s above-average against everything. Fastballs, breaking balls, the works. I picked Soler to win World Series MVP for two reasons: to be different and go against the grain, and also because he can handle anything. That plays in October.

The downside is Soler is an awful defender (-17 DRS and -12 OAA the last three years) and a negative on the bases. He’s a DH who can play the outfield in a pinch. He’s also one of the best DHs in the game. Start your lineup like this …

1. Juan Soto
2. Aaron Judge
3. Anthony Rizzo
4. Jorge Soler

… and you’re going to lead the league in first inning runs and make a lot of pitchers miserable. The Yankees have an open bench spot alongside Trent Grisham, Oswald Peraza, and Jose Trevino. Would they bench Stanton – he hit .265/.315/.618 (149 wRC+) against lefties in 2023, so platoon him with Verdugo? – and bring in Soler to be the full-time DH? Hmmm.

Both MLBTR and FanGraphs project a three-year contract in the $15M a year range for Soler. I know the Yankees need pitching more than anything, but there’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength. Signing Soler and either benching or releasing Stanton would make the offense better. It also feels like something that won’t happen. Methinks this rumor predates the Soto trade.

2. Latest roster moves. It’s that time of year and the minor league contracts continue to roll in. Here are the latest non-roster signings in addition to Yerry De Los Santos, Anthony Misiewicz, Oddanier Mosqueda, Dennis Santana, and Duane Underwood Jr.

Yankees sign González

The Yankees have their Billy McKinney replacement. According to Ken Rosenthal, the Yankees have signed lefty hitting outfielder Luis González to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training. Luis González, huh. Were there no Bill Mazeroskis available? Maybe the Yankees will get lucky and González will have an out-of-nowhere 57-homer season.

ANYWAY, this Luis González spent the last few years with the Giants. The 28-year-old made a name for himself in 2022, when he slashed .254/.323/.360 (97 wRC+) in 350 plate appearances with San Francisco. He won NL Rookie of the Month in May 2022 thanks to a .368/.410/.500 (160 wRC+) line. González then hit .210/.294/.300 (74 wRC+) the rest of the season.

González finished 2022 on the injured list with a back strain and it popped up again early in Spring Training. He couldn’t play for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic because insurance wouldn’t cover him, then González needed surgery to repair a herniated disc in March. That shelved him until late July. González hit .255/.355/.362 (80 wRC+) in 27 Triple-A games in 2023.

The scouting report on González says he’s a classic ‘tweener. Good bat-to-ball guy with a sound approach, though his power is limited (double-digit homers once in nine pro seasons), and although he can play center, he fits better in a corner defensively. González doesn’t have enough bat for a corner nor enough glove for a center. Classic Quad-A, emergency outfielder skill set.

González finished the season healthy and I assume he’s healthy now seeing how the Yankees signed him. The MLB outfield is Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Alex Verdugo. The Triple-A outfield is González, Everson Pereira, Oscar Gonzalez, maybe Oswaldo Cabrera, and possibly Elijah Dunham and Brandon Lockridge. The outfield depth chart appears set.

Yankees sign Burdi

According to Jack Curry, the Yankees have signed righty reliever Nick Burdi to a minor league contract. He also gets an invite to Spring Training. I didn’t realize Burdi pitched in the big leagues this past season. He allowed three runs in three innings with the Cubs. It was his first MLB action since the shortened 2020 pandemic season.

Burdi, 31 next month, was a rare high draft pick as a college reliever (No. 46 overall in 2014). It has never been a question of arm talent with Burdi. His fastball averaged 98.0 mph and topped out at 101.4 mph in his limited MLB time in 2023 – Burdi had a 41.7% whiff rate on his heater – and his slider is a hard upper-80s breaker with big spin. Here’s video. It’s high leverage stuff.

The issue with Burdi is health, or lack thereof. It’s all arm injuries too. The injury recap:

• 2016: Season-ending bone bruise in his arm in April.
• 2017: Tommy John surgery in May.
• 2018: Tommy John surgery rehab.
• 2019: Season-ending Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery in April.
• 2020: Missed almost the entire shortened season with an elbow injury. Had his second Tommy John surgery in November.
• 2021: Tommy John surgery rehab.
• 2022: Tommy John surgery rehab, then surgery to treat a nerve issue in his elbow.
• 2023: Appendectomy in May, then another nerve issue in his elbow in August.

That’s … a lot. Burdi was supposedly healthy going into the offseason, and I’m sure the Yankees confirmed that when they dug through his medicals before signing him. There’s no risk with a minor league contract, but still, you want to sign healthy players.

There are always ways to get better, though Burdi doesn’t necessarily fit the “reliever Matt Blake can coach up” archetype only because his stuff is already so good. It’s just a question of health. And, frankly, the Yankees are not good at keeping their players on the field. Still, it’s only a minor league contract. Essentially a free trial in Spring Training and Triple-A.

It’s only 15.1 innings spread across four seasons, but Burdi has a 36.0% strikeout rate and a 16.7% swinging strike rate in the big leagues. Those results are in line with the quality of his fastball and slider, and it’s encouraging Burdi’s stuff was as lively as it was with the Cubs this year, after two Tommy Johns and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery.

Hopefully Burdi stays healthy and gives the Yankees some quality innings. It takes a village to get through 162 games. If Burdi can soak up even 25 innings, that’s a win. Chances are he won’t stay healthy and I’ll feel silly for writing this many words about him, but as far as I’m concerned, guys like Burdi are always worth a minor league deal. Premium arm, just hope he stays healthy.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB’s competition committee announced a series of adjustments to the pace of play rules last week. Nothing earth-shattering. Here are the adjustments:

• Pitch clock: It’s now 18 seconds with men on base rather than 20. It’s still 15 seconds with the bases empty. Also, the clock now resumes when the pitcher receives the ball, not when he steps back on the mound.
• Pitcher warm up: If a pitcher goes out to the game mound to warm up before an inning, he must face a batter. No more warming up, then replacing the pitcher after a pinch-hitter has been announced.
• Mound visits: Teams now get four per game (plus one for every extra inning), not five.

We’ll barely notice these changes. Most pitches with men on base were delivered with more than two seconds remaining on the clock this year, and the “let a pitcher warm up, then replace him after a pinch-hitter is announced” move happened only 24 times in 2023. Feels like more, but 24 times it is. I know people get mad about anything and everything these days, but come on, no one is truly upset about watching fewer mound visits. I accept I’m an old man yelling at clouds with pace of play issues. Anything that speeds the game up and reduces the downtime between pitches gets a thumbs up from me … And finally, MLB’s calculations are complete and the luxury tax bills are in. Ron Blum says the Mets will pay a record $100.8M in tax. That’s based on a $374.4 million luxury tax payroll and is more than double the previous record tax bill ($43.6M by the 2015 Dodgers). The Yankees owe $32.4M in tax on a $298.5M payroll. They’ve paid roughly $390M in luxury tax since the system was put in place in 2003. The Dodgers are a distant second at $234M. Also, thanks to their late season waiver salary dumps, the Angels finished only $28,654 under the $233M threshold. That is about eight days worth of the league minimum. Because of that, they’ll get a compensation draft pick before the third round rather than after the fourth round for Shohei Ohtani. A record eight teams will pay luxury tax this year, including the World Series champion Rangers. Checks are due to the commissioner’s office by Jan. 21st. Most of the money goes toward funding player benefits and pensions. The rest is redistributed to non-luxury tax paying teams that meet certain local revenue growth conditions.

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