Quick thoughts after Yoshinobu Yamamoto heads to the Dodgers
Added 2023-12-22 04:48:30 +0000 UTC
The YamaSoto dream is dead. According to multiple reporters, Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto has agreed to a 12-year, $325M contract with the Dodgers. The contract includes a $50M signing bonus and no deferrals. It is the richest pitching contract in history, narrowly edging out Gerrit Cole’s $324M deal. The posting fee will be $50.625M. That’s $375.625M all-in.
(I thought my 10-year, $250M contract in the Offseason Plan was out there. Sheesh.)
On one hand, you can’t be too surprised Yamamoto went to a 100-win Dodgers team that has won 10 of the last 11 division titles and just signed the coolest player on Earth over the 82-80 Yankees. I mean, I’d sign with the Dodgers too. They’re just a better run team at this point. The proof is in the standings and in the rosters. The Dodgers are just better.
On the other hand, we can be mad the Yankees missed out on yet another prime-aged star. So many high-end 20-somethings hit the free agent market the last few years and precisely zero wound up in pinstripes. Bob Nightengale says the Yankees offered 10 years and $300M. Why trade for Juan Soto if you’re going to come up two years short for Yamamoto?
Where the Yankees turn now, I do not know. The alternatives to Yamamoto aren’t great. The Yankees are said to have interest in a reunion with Jordan Montgomery. Blake Snell is still unsigned too, but I really don’t want to watch him every five days. His starts are such a slog. Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes, and Dylan Cease are the big names on the trade market.
Like I said the other day, the Yankees should call up White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf and see what kinda discount he’ll give them on Cease if they take on the $29M owed to Yoán Moncada in 2024. Reinsdorf is a major payroll hawk. You might be able to get two years of Cease at a lower prospect cost than one year of Burnes if you take on Moncada. Might as well call and ask.
As things stand, the rotation depth chart is currently this:
1. RHP Gerrit Cole (amazing)
2. LHP Carlos Rodón (injured and ineffective in 2023)
3. LHP Nestor Cortes (injured and ineffective in 2023)
4. RHP Clarke Schmidt (set a new career high by 66 innings in 2023)
5. RHP Clayton Beeter
6. RHP Will Warren
That rotation is not one Frankie Montas prove yourself contract away from being reliable, and I’m high on Warren. There’s also talk the Yankees could load up the bullpen – the bullpen needs help regardless – and build their pitching staff that way, but they’ve tried the super bullpen thing in the past, and it didn’t really work. They need actual starting pitchers. At least one, preferably two.
Spring Training is still two months away, so the Yankees have time to reinforce the rotation and build up their pitching depth. There’s no sugarcoating it though, losing Yamamoto is a big blow and a massive bummer. Players this young and this talented do not become available very often, and when they do, the Yankees have made a habit of missing out.
Comments
LOL. But how do you REALLY feel about Snell? Maybe don't post until you've time to reflect for a minute. You're better than this.
Jon
2023-12-22 20:24:20 +0000 UTCBullet dodged. 12 years and $325M for a pipsqueak who has never thrown a pitch on American soil is lunacy. Dodgers can afford it because they actually have a functioning farm system to replace him when his arm falls off.
pkmuldy
2023-12-22 17:35:14 +0000 UTCSadly, Yamamoto likely preferred LA from the start, but the Yankee and mets did a good job driving up the price the Dodging ended up paying.
Peter S
2023-12-22 16:39:09 +0000 UTCAgree
Peter S
2023-12-22 16:30:45 +0000 UTCYamamoto agent used the yankees, mets to get the deal he wants and sign with the dodgers, these Japanese players are very good at not revealing their cards,Yamamoto to the yankees was never an option if the price was matched
ramez hanna
2023-12-22 16:02:27 +0000 UTCMy main reaction to this signing - which showed the immense value of youth on the free agent market- is that Harper and Machado were absolutely robbed in 2019. Hal should never live down failing to even try to pursue them.
William
2023-12-22 15:58:38 +0000 UTCGuardians like high-contact, BABIP variant guys. Periera's hit tool is too weak for them to want him.
Vismay Pandia
2023-12-22 15:41:00 +0000 UTCDude. Yanks were PLAYED. I bet they weren't even given the chance to match. He used Mets number (good enough for his agent) and told Dodgers to match.
Hearn
2023-12-22 15:38:07 +0000 UTCDodgers absolutely needed him. Their staff was worse of than the Yankees.
Big Davey88
2023-12-22 15:04:37 +0000 UTCI don’t blame Hal here. Once Ohtani signed with LA and did it with that huge salary deferral I thought it was a bad sign. LA makes more sense for him in that he has a fellow Japanese teammate, a better team, shorter flight home and nicer weather despite all the insanity going on in California. Its a hit but the guy never pitched in MLB and pitchers break. I’ll only be very disappointed if Yankees don’t land another of quality FAs. Never wanted Montgomery traded so I hope for a reunion
JimBearNJ
2023-12-22 14:39:29 +0000 UTCHaha exactly. Not what I would do but we'll see
Ben Stewart
2023-12-22 13:48:19 +0000 UTCSucks. No way around that. But I’ll wait to pass judgement on the offseason. Still time to pivot to good options but we shall see if they are able to go with plan B (Burns or Cease) or if they have to go plan C or lower, or the worst possible scenario is wait until the deadline.
The Original Drew
2023-12-22 13:25:36 +0000 UTCRed Sox fan with a bad opinion? I for one am SHOCKED
The Original Drew
2023-12-22 13:16:41 +0000 UTCYeah thanks so much Mike, your posts are both informative and entertaining. Definitely the best thing going in Yankeeland. Also, kudos to the commenters! Best. Comment section. Ever.
Bob from Manalapan
2023-12-22 13:13:27 +0000 UTCYeah there's no team that needed him less than the dodgers and they went and got him, I have to tip my cap to them while also wanting to fire Hal into the sun
Milky Joe
2023-12-22 12:25:57 +0000 UTCAnother classic Hal Steinbrenner half measure....do just enough so he can tell himself he's making a difference, but at the end of the day you know he just wants payroll down. The 'why are they mad' interview last year tells you all you need to know about him...and his actions as owner confirm it.
Milky Joe
2023-12-22 12:24:15 +0000 UTCThis was not what I wanted to wake up to.
DontCallMeLorney
2023-12-22 11:53:06 +0000 UTCA buddy of mine (he’s a Red Sox fan) thinks that the Dodgers are hurting baseball because they are creating an imbalance and that no one is going to see these two Japanese phenoms because how late they play on the east coast. (He knows that the Dodgers are playing by the rules). I’m not sure how I feel about this. Thoughts?
Mark P in VT
2023-12-22 11:50:41 +0000 UTCI want to kill the load up on bullpen idea with fire. Feels very 2017-2023 Cashman. The Yankees organizational development program seems to do 2 things really well. Manufacture effective bullpen arms and develop mid rotation starters for trade purposes. They could deal for Burnes AND Cease. Which means they’ll sign 3 relievers, Montgomery and Montas (who I didn’t think was a great fit for Yankee Stadium BEFORE he got injured)
Michael Taylor
2023-12-22 11:02:05 +0000 UTCThanks Mike for your outstanding work, you’re a treasure for us. I tought it would be the Dodgers since the Ohtani farce was revealed. At that point the only chance the Yankees had was to offer much more, in the 350/10 or 400/12 range. They didn’t do it.
Max P.
2023-12-22 09:11:42 +0000 UTCAs I alluded to elsewhere, why are Yankee fans so sure that he wanted to be a Yankee and matching the Dodgers offer would have done it?
MikeD
2023-12-22 08:04:11 +0000 UTCIchiro didn't sign with the Mariners because he liked the stadium
Sam Forman
2023-12-22 08:02:01 +0000 UTCIf you offer 10/300, then going 12/325 is no big deal. They just didn't want to give Yamamoto 1 million more than what they give to Cole. Dodgers and Mets knew the Yankees had this major weakness of not wanting to upset their ace. Cashman and Hal just proved they are dumb and stupid.
Bruno Nakata
2023-12-22 07:21:06 +0000 UTCThat's only been a thing with Ohtani. Wasn't an issue until then.
Nick Fugitt
2023-12-22 06:48:46 +0000 UTCAlready seeing major cope. "Dodged a bullet," "Yankees offered more AAV!" etc. Reality is between the opt outs and the years being a luxury tax dodge, the Dodgers simply offered more. Plus, the Yankees have dodged a lot of bullets in recent years and look where it's gotten them.
Nick Fugitt
2023-12-22 06:47:43 +0000 UTCLoading up on the pen or giving some dumb contract to Montgomery or Snell would be a massive waste of resources. Which is probably why that is exactly what Cashman will do.
Alex G
2023-12-22 06:13:21 +0000 UTCYup, you have seen a complete evolution with the Dodgers. Guggenheim and Friedman have become what George and Stick were in the 90s: building championship rosters on the backs of elite player development, savvy moves, and signing young superstar players. Meanwhile, Hal and Cashman are doing their best impersonations of Arte Moreno and the Wilpons.
Alex G
2023-12-22 06:09:29 +0000 UTCHonestly, all of this ends up coming down to Cashman being horrific at his job. Him and Hal have done massive damage to the Yankees reputation and brand, both domestically and abroad. In terms of what the org should do next, here's what they CANNOT do: make panic signings. They need to stay far, far away from Snell or Montgomery unless they are willing to take higher AAV, short-term deals. I would engage every team with a high-end starter potentially on the trade market, with a particular emphasis on Corbin Burnes, and in the meanwhile consider signing Imanaga to a reasonable deal.
Alex G
2023-12-22 06:05:02 +0000 UTCI was confident he was going to the Mets because Cohen would outbid everyone. It wasn’t until early this evening, when I heard Jack Curry sound optimistic, that I began to believe he was trending toward being a Yankee. Then, boom, within an hour, he was a Dodger. Mike, here's the one thing you have to take into account that maybe you fully didn't. Where did he want to play? This probably is not a case of the Yankees coming up short. This could be a case of Yamamoto wanting to be on the West Coast and being a Dodger. The Yankees matching the money doesn't do it. What perhaps, maybe even likely, happened is the Yankees and Mets, and maybe another team, were in at $300MM+, and the agent then went back to Yamamoto's preferred team, the Dodgers, and hammered out the deal. The Yankees coming back at 12/325, or even 10/325, likely doesn't get the deal done. The Dodgers offer seemingly was in reaction to what the Yankees (and Mets) offered, so Yamamoto pushed the Dodgers higher in dollars by adding in some additional years. Just as Judge last year got the deal he wanted from his preferred team, the Yankees, Yamamoto got the deal he wanted from the Dodgers. The Yankees weren't going to win this bid as long as the Dodgers were committed and Yamamoto had them as his preferred team. This is very different than Harper, Machado and Seager when the Yankees weren't even bidding on those players.
MikeD
2023-12-22 05:55:04 +0000 UTCMike-I really hope you're right about the Yankees calling Jerry Reinsdorf. Taking a glass half full approach to this, if they could take on Moncada and he has a Gio Urshela-like season, that's not half bad. He's a 28 year-old switch hitter, and finished strongly last year. Of course, the prize would be Cease, but it's not unfathomable that both could produce next season.
Richard K
2023-12-22 05:52:05 +0000 UTCDidi, Odor, and Benintendi all wore 18…
Dan G
2023-12-22 05:39:14 +0000 UTCThe little brother yankees
kyle
2023-12-22 05:36:05 +0000 UTCI also feel like the West coast has such a huge advantage for signing Japanese players just because of the proximity. If only Britain was good at baseball...
brian m
2023-12-22 05:30:56 +0000 UTCGood thing Cashman personally flew out there to watch his perfect game, and kept #18 reserved for him since 2014. Maybe we can give that number to the ball boy now
brian m
2023-12-22 05:25:12 +0000 UTCI was wrong about him signing for less than $300M. Though "So many high-end 20-somethings...precisely zero wound up in pinstripes" is not true. Jason Heyward (26 the following season) Aroldis Chapman (29) --- pinstripes Kenley Jansen (29) Eric Hosmer (28) Manny Machado (26) Bryce Harper (26) Patrick Corbin (29) Gerrit Cole (29) --- pinstripes Corey Seager (28) Trevor Story (29) Javier Báez (29) Carlos Correa (28) Dansby Swanson (29) Edwin Díaz (29) Shohei Ohtani (29) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (25) Cody Bellinger (28) If Cole doesn't count as prime-aged, then the sample size is 4.
chuangeUp
2023-12-22 05:22:18 +0000 UTCOver $1B committed to two players. I thought owners were poor?
Dan G
2023-12-22 05:20:32 +0000 UTCSays it all about this ownership group that you didn’t trust them to actually do it.
Zack
2023-12-22 05:18:33 +0000 UTCSame but TBH it’s same AAV they gave Rodon who’s 5 years older with a sketchy record and injury history
Dan G
2023-12-22 05:16:30 +0000 UTCHonestly, I’m not even mad. Hats off to the Dodgers for being the team the Yankees used to be: actually committed to winning a championship through great player development, smart trades, using their huge market advantage to sign the best players.
Mottpott
2023-12-22 05:12:30 +0000 UTCMike, do you think Bieber could be had for a package built around Everson Periera? Cleveland's outfield was historical inept offensively and they're known to sell low if it saves them money. Between that and your Cease/Moncada idea, perhaps there's a path to landing them both without giving up too much.
Gregory B
2023-12-22 05:10:36 +0000 UTCHe would have needed to sign with Mets for that to happen.
Gregory B
2023-12-22 05:06:00 +0000 UTCAt this I'm half-expecting the Yankees to be trading Soto to the Dodgers at the deadline when they're 10 games under .500 and tied for last with Boston.
Gregory B
2023-12-22 05:05:30 +0000 UTCMike, other than Judge hitting 62 last year, reading your posts is the only thing I've liked about this team for many years now. I appreciate you, sir. Thanks for riding out the tough times with us.
Gregory B
2023-12-22 05:03:10 +0000 UTCIt doesn’t but I do appreciate you, happy holidays man
Tamir
2023-12-22 04:58:04 +0000 UTCIf it makes you feel better, I had nothing written up in case the Yankees signed him.
Michael Axisa
2023-12-22 04:57:21 +0000 UTCI am devastated, I almost want to read the post you had written up for if we did sign him. I’m just in denial.
Tamir
2023-12-22 04:56:43 +0000 UTCYou think he's going to defer $313,000,000 of it so that they can sign Blake Snell, too?! 😭
Gregory B
2023-12-22 04:53:23 +0000 UTCSucks losing out on him but I never really felt good about $300m on a pitcher who has never pitched in MLB. I expect the Yanks to sign Montas and Monty then load up on the pen as their fallback
Ben Stewart
2023-12-22 04:52:01 +0000 UTCAt this moment I’m bitter as hell and I hope he bombs terribly. Like, Igawa level. Hope he’s out of the league in 3 years. Maybe I’ll change my kind but right now this just sucks. Maybe the Yanks can sign Aaron Small.
Jingling Baby
2023-12-22 04:51:48 +0000 UTCMore half measures from Hal and Cashman
Mike
2023-12-22 04:51:20 +0000 UTC
