November 27th, 2023: Yamamoto, Montgomery, Imanaga, Lee, Ausmus, Bellinger

The Thanksgiving weekend is over and MLB’s Winter Meetings are a week away. It’s time to get back to business. The hot stove is beginning to heat up and I hope the Yankees do something soon, mostly because I’m bored. The Jake Bauers trade can only hold me over so long. Here now is Tuesday morning's post Monday afternoon. I'm publishing early because it's the time of year when things can happen quickly, and I don't want to have to rewrite anything tonight.

1. Latest hot stove rumors. The Tigers signed Kenta Maeda to a two-year, $24M contract over the weekend. He turns 36 in April, he threw 104.1 innings this past season because of Tommy John surgery and a triceps injury, and he hasn’t thrown even 110 innings in a season since 2019. With every one of these second and third tier free agent starter signings (Maeda, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, etc.), I grow more and more okay with a Frankie Montas reunion. Assuming it’s a one-year "prove yourself" contract, of course. The pitching market, it’s beginning to heat up. Here are the latest Yankees-related hot stove tidbits.

The latest on Yamamoto

This is Day 7 of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 45-day posting period and, as far as we know, there have been no developments or any real movement. Joel Wolfe, Yamamoto’s agent, spoke a few days ago and provided some non-updates. Here’s my breakdown of Yamamoto and here’s what Wolfe said last week, via Jim Allen and the Kyodo News:

• 11-14 teams inquired last Tuesday, the first day Yamamoto could speak to teams. "This is by far the player with the most interested teams that I have ever seen at the beginning of free agency," Wolfe said.
• One team told Wolfe they might drop out on Yamamoto if they land Shohei Ohtani. It’s easy to think Dodgers, but that really could be any team. Cubs, Giants, Mariners, Mets, even the Yankees.
• Yamamoto will not attend the Winter Meetings in Nashville next week. He’ll meet with teams after that. Yamamoto was at the Lakers game last Wednesday but has returned to Japan, or will very soon.
• A report going around last week about Yamamoto wanting to play with another Japanese player is incorrect. He’s open to it, but it’s not a must.

For what it’s worth, Andy Martino says Yamamoto will conduct his initial meetings with teams on Zoom this week, then narrow down his list, and begin face-to-face meetings after the Winter Meetings. I suppose that means we could find out whether the Yankees make it to the second round soon-ish, as in later this week. Don’t take my worth for it though. I’m just speculating.

I was reminded that, when Masahiro Tanaka was posted, he did not visit teams or tour cities. He made teams come to him and make their pitch at his agent’s office in Los Angeles. Tanaka never did visit Yankee Stadium before signing with the Yankees. Maybe Yamamoto will do the same? You come to me, I don’t need to see your operation firsthand? I dunno.

"It's what we call a perfect storm, where you have one of the finest young pitchers in the world who also is just 25 years old," Wolfe told the Kyodo News. "It's generational. Something like this only happens once every 10-15 years."

This didn’t occur to me when I wrote the case for keeping Kyle Higashioka last week, but Higashioka speaks Japanese. It would be nice to have a catcher who can speak to Yamamoto in his first language during his first season in the United States, no? It’s not imperative because teams can use interpreters, but still. It’s the kinda thing that can only help.

Anyway, it sounds like Yamamoto and Wolfe will get down to business this week, then really dive in after the Winter Meetings. There are rumblings Ohtani could sign by the end of next week, so maybe Yamamoto and Wolfe are waiting for Ohtani to sign so they can have the top of the market to themselves? Yamamoto's posting period closes at 5pm ET on Thursday, Jan. 4th. Clock’s ticking.

(The Cardinals signed Sonny Gray on Monday, adding him to Gibson and Lynn. That probably takes them out of the running for Yamamoto? I didn’t expect St. Louis to win a bidding war against the Yankees and Dodgers and Mets, but they were in on Yamamoto, and it seems they’re out now.)

Yankees have interest in Montgomery

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees have interest in a reunion with Jordan Montgomery. They are in on Yamamoto and had interest in Aaron Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, plus the rumblings about a Montas reunion persist. We haven’t heard anything about interest in Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Snell, or any other notable free agent starters (yet).

Montgomery, 31 next month, has a 3.17 ERA (3.44 FIP) since the Yankees traded him away. His strikeout (22.0%) and ground ball (44.8%) rates are average, his walk rate (5.9%) excellent, and his home run rate dipped to 0.86 HR/9 (9.8% HR/FB) with the Not Yankees. With the Yankees, it was 1.13 HR/9 (12.6% HR/FB) from 2021-22. Blame the stupid Yankees for being stupid if you want, but the homer rate seems like a potential Yankee Stadium/AL East thing.

It was a whole big thing when Montgomery got to the Cardinals last year that they had him throw his four-seamer more often, though that didn’t last. Montgomery was back to using the sinker as his primary fastball this season. Watching him in the postseason, it seems the biggest difference for Montgomery is better poise and execution, not a new pitch or different pitch selection.

It has become the prevailing narrative, but Brian Cashman never said Montgomery wouldn’t be in the postseason rotation last year. If Montgomery holds a grudge and won’t sign with the Yankees, then whatever. I would be surprised if that’s the case though. He hasn’t said anything bad about the organization since being traded away, and he has friends on the team. It’s a business, and like everything else in business, money has a way of solving problems.

The real question is whether signing Montgomery to a large free agent contract is a smart move. A few weeks ago I said I consider him the second best free agent starter behind Yamamoto, and I still feel that way. That has much to do with the free agent class as it does Montgomery though. Here are the various contract projections:

• The Athletic (subs. req’d): 5 years and $105M
• ESPN (subs. req’d): 5 years and $106M
• FanGraphs: 5 years and $105M
• MLBTR: 6 years and $150M

Hammer the over this offseason. The free agent class is very thin, and when demand outweighs supply, the few actually good players wind up with larger than expected contracts. Case in point: Nola’s average contract projection was six years and $150M. He got seven years and $172M. Montgomery’s getting six years. (Will he really get fewer years than Carlos Rodón?)

You have to remove emotion from these decisions. I didn’t like the trade at the time, but there is no unringing that bell – Montgomery would have been a free agent this offseason with or without the trade – and signing him now doesn’t correct that mistake. Also, don’t get caught overvaluing postseason performance. What happened this October doesn’t tell us much about the future.

(Montgomery had a weird postseason, statistically. A 2.90 ERA in 31 innings is obviously great, but he had only 17 strikeouts in those 31 innings, and opponents hit .291/.316/.416 against him.)

Assuming Montgomery gets six years, do you really want to pay him $20M+ a year for his age 31-36 seasons? Was any Yankees fan up for that before the trade? I think Montgomery’s a good candidate to age well given his deep arsenal and pitchability, though he already works with an average fastball. What happens when natural age-related velocity loss has him at 90-91 mph? There are some “pay great pitcher prices for a good pitcher who happened to have the best few months of his career at the right time” vibes here.

Of course, there’s more to consider than just Montgomery. What’s the rest of the offseason look like? Signing Montgomery for the sake of signing a pitcher is different than, say, the Yankees using their financial might by signing Montgomery so they can turn around and trade Mike King and/or Clarke Schmidt for Juan Soto (or some other impact outfielder). I like that plan. The Montgomery + Soto plan. Let’s do that and prioritize 2024.

My hunch is the Yankees view Montgomery as a backup plan to Yamamoto and the timing there might not work. Yamamoto won’t meet with teams face-to-face until after the Winter Meetings, and his 45 days aren’t up until Jan. 4th. Montgomery probably won’t wait around that long. He could sign at the Winter Meetings next week. That’s when so many top free agents sign.

The Yankees need offense more than they need pitching, but they need pitching too, and there is no correct order to these things. You can address your second biggest need before your first. If the Yankees remain in the mix, Montgomery is worth a deeper dive. My guess is the Yankees are focused on Yamamoto, and Montgomery will sign elsewhere within a week or two.

Imanaga posted for MLB teams

Yokohama DeNA BayStars lefty Shōta Imanaga has been posted for MLB teams, according to the Kyodo News. His 45-day posting period begins 8am ET on Tuesday (i.e. tomorrow) and closes at 5pm ET on Thursday, Jan. 11th. Imanaga is one week behind Yamamoto. Yamamoto’s 45 days end Jan. 4th and Imanaga’s a week later.

I haven’t done a deep dive into Imanaga the way I did Yamamoto mostly because I don’t think the Yankees will pursue him. Contract projections put the 30-year-old in the five-year, $85M range, which is reasonable given the five years and $75M the Mets gave Kodai Senga just before his 30th birthday last offseason. Here’s R.J. Anderson:

Imanaga is a fastball-heavy pitcher, slinging his rising low-90s heater close to 60% of the time. He's thrown just one other pitch more than 15% of the time this season: his low-80s slider. Imanaga does have a ton of other pitches that play cameo roles, including a low-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. He does a good job of generating chases with his fastball, while his slider has coerced nearly 40% whiffs.

Imanaga is said to have premium carry on his fastball, which is something the Yankees value (Rodón, Gerrit Cole, even Andrew Heaney and J.A. Happ), though they just don’t play in the “multi-year contract for non-elite starters” sandbox. Imanaga would be against the grain, and frankly, given their ages, Yamamoto has to be the priority. Anyway, Imanaga is officially on the market. Another arm for a thin free agent class.

(Nippon Ham Fighters right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa has also been posted. His 45-day posting period ends on Jan. 11th, the same day as Imanaga’s. Here’s what I wrote about Uwasawa a few weeks ago. Short version: he’s viewed as a low-upside innings guy.)

Lee to be posted in early December

Kiwoon Heroes center fielder Jung-Hoo Lee is on track to be posted in early December, reports Jee-Ho Yoo. The KBO reviewed Lee’s medical records before formally submitting his posting to MLB. The medical review is notable because an ankle injury that required surgery effectively ended Lee’s season in July. Once MLB does its thing, Lee will be officially posted.

Also, Yoo says Lee will have a 30-day posting period, not 45 days like Yamamoto and Imanaga. MLB’s posting agreement with KBO had a shorter posting period for whatever reason. Given the expected timing of his posting, Lee’s 30 days figure to end right around the time Yamamoto’s 45 days end. That first week of January could be a busy one on the international players front.

For what it’s worth, Jon Morosi reports the Yankees are “expected to show interest” in Lee, and boy, what a nothing rumor. Expected to show interest? Hot stove jargon continues to find new ways to be inane. The Yankees did scout Lee during the season, for what it’s worth. Here’s my breakdown of the 25-year-old bat control freak. Like every other player, there are a few red flags.

2. Ausmus named bench coach. The Yankees have filled their bench coach vacancy. Last week they officially named Brad Ausmus their new bench coach. He replaces Carlos Mendoza, who left the Yankees to become Mets manager earlier this month. Ausmus is Aaron Boone’s third bench coach after Mendoza (2020-23) and Josh Bard (2018-19).

Ausmus, 54, is a Connecticut native and he began his professional career with the Yankees. They selected him in the 48th round of the 1987 draft and lost him to the Rockies in the 1992 expansion draft, when he was a Triple-A player. Ausmus had an 18-year big league playing career with four teams from 1993-2010. Here is his post-playing career:

• 2011-13: Padres special assistant in baseball operations
• 2014-17: Tigers manager
• 2018: Angels special assistant to GM Billy Eppler
• 2019: Angels manager
• 2022: Athletics bench coach

I’m not sure what Ausmus did from 2020-21 (stayed home during the pandemic?) or in 2023, but he’s generally kept himself busy since he stopped playing. Ausmus took over after Jim Leyland retired and caught the tail end of those great Tigers teams, plus the Angels are a mess, so his career managerial record is an unimpressive 386-422 (.478).

Ausmus didn’t stand out as a manager (I remember he was bad with the media in particular) so perhaps the No. 2 seat suits him better. Having a former manager at bench coach could create some “Boone has to look over his shoulder!” awkwardness whenever the Yankees slump, but it’ll be manufactured. The next time the Yankees indicate Boone is in danger will be the first.

He’s the bench coach and not a hitting coach, but the Ausmus hire is a blend of the Sean Casey (former MLB player) and James Rowson (experienced MLB coach) hires. When Dillon Lawson was fired, the Yankees admitted connecting with players was an issue, and now they’re going heavy on guys who’ve been there, done that in big league clubhouses. Ausmus fits.

I don’t have much more to say about the bench coach. I don’t expect Ausmus to whisper sweet nothings into Boone’s ear and turn him into a master tactician, because that’s not really the bench coach’s role anymore. The front office handles game-planning and it’s on the coaches to execute those plans. Ausmus will help keep Boone on track more than influence individual moves.

The coaching staff is now technically full, though Rowson said no decision has been made about assistant hitting coaches Casey Dykes and Brad Wilkerson. They could be shown the door and replaced by people Rowson brings in. I can’t imagine that will drag on much longer. I bet we get word about the assistant hitting coaches when Boone speaks at the Winter Meetings next week, if not sooner.

3. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Cody Bellinger. Thanksgiving is in the rear-view mirror and the Winter Meetings are a week away. The hot stove is about to heat up and the Yankees need, among other things, a center fielder. A left-handed hitting center fielder who doesn’t strike out excessively is the ideal addition, and Cody Bellinger checks all those boxes.

“You’ve got a five-tool player,” Scott Boras told Gary Phillips about Bellinger at the GM Meetings. “Obviously, in the years prior to coming to the Cubs, he had a partial performance due to just lack of strength. He had (shoulder) surgery, broken leg, all those things. But I think it’s pretty evident that when you have youth and you’re 28, you’re a rare free agent. You have a lot of options … Cody’s played in major markets, so he just wants to play on a winning team.”

Bellinger, 28, slashed .307/.356/.535 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers, 20 steals in 26 attempts, and very strong strikeout (15.6%) and swinging strike (9.3%) rates with the Cubs in 2023. I wrote about him as a possible trade deadline target at the All-Star break and noted all the red flags in his underlying numbers. Needless to say, I’m an idiot:

• First half: .298/.355/.491 (126 wRC+) with 9 HR and 17.6 K%  (218 PA)
• Second half: .313/.357/.552 (141 wRC+) with 17 HR and 14.1 K% (281 PA)

Bellinger’s underlying numbers did improve in the second half. His average exit velocity went from 86.6 mph in the first half to 88.8 mph in the second half. His hard-hit rate went from 27.9% to 34.0%. His barrel rate jumped from 5.1% to 7.0%. That’s a notable uptick in hard-hit ability. It’s also still well south of what usually supports a batting line like Bellinger’s.

Here again is what I wrote about Bellinger at the deadline. I’m not going to go through that entire song and dance again (background, injury history, etc.), so instead let’s drill down into certain aspects of his game, and try to figure out whether Bellinger is a worthwhile investment or a potential Jacoby Ellsbury redux. Let’s get to it.

About those underlying numbers

Bellinger’s unimpressive hard-hit ability is no secret (Mike Petriello wrote about it too) and it’s not something only the dumb and overly reliant on analytics Yankees are looking at. The teams that will seriously pursue Bellinger are big market contenders and every big market contender has an analytics department that will look at him and say hmmm, what’s going on here?

For example: Bellinger’s 31.4% hard-hit rate (the percentage of batted balls at 95+ mph) ranked 122nd among the 133 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His 6.1% barrel rate is 101st and his 109.2 mph max exit velocity, his hardest hit ball, was 112th, just ahead of old pal Andrew Benintendi (109.1 mph). Hitting the ball hard is undeniably a good thing and Bellinger didn’t do it all that often in 2023.

Here are Bellinger’s Statcast expected stats, which are based on the quality of his contact:

• .307 AVG vs. .270 xAVG
• .525 SLG vs. .437 xSLG
• .370 wOBA vs. .331 xwOBA

Bellinger’s contact quality improved as the season went on and his expected stats followed along. He went from a .248 xAVG and .392 xSLG (.308 xwOBA) in the first half to a .287 xAVG and .472 xSLG (.348 xwOBA) in the second half. Again, that’s a significant uptick, but also short of the contact quality that typically supports a batting line like Bellinger’s.

The 88-point gap between Bellinger’s SLG and xSLG is very large. Set the minimum at 400 plate appearances, and it’s the 27th largest gap (in favor of the hitter) between SLG and xSLG in the Statcast era (since 2015). That’s out of 1,652 player seasons. In terms of SLG minus xSLG, Bellinger just had something like a top 2% outlier season since 2015.

In an effort to do something more than say SLG > xSLG = bad, I rounded up the players who had at least an 80-point difference between SLG and xSLG, and looked at what they did the following season (I ignored anything involving the shortened 2020 pandemic season). The sample is only 35 individual player seasons (27 different players), which speaks to how unique Bellinger’s season was. Here are the averages:

• Year 1: .511 SLG vs. .419 xSLG (the outlier year)
• Year 2: .468 SLG vs. .426 xSLG (the follow-up year)

xSLG more or less held steady. The relatively small seven-point xSLG difference between Year 1 and Year 2 suggests our group’s core hard-hit ability was mostly unchanged. Our group’s actual SLG decreased 43 points from Year 1 to 2 Year though. Our group still outperformed xSLG in Year 2, by a lot too, but not nearly as much. Among these 35 individual player seasons:

• 8 beat their xSLG by at least 80 points again in Year 2
• 12 beat their xSLG by at least 50 points in Year 2
• 5 players underperformed their xSLG in Year 2

Eight guys beat their xSLG by 80 points in back-to-back years! On the other hand, 23 players, or roughly two-thirds of our sample, did not outperform their xSLG by a considerable amount in Year 2 (I’m arbitrarily defining “considerable amount” as 50+ points). The majority of our sample came back to Earth in Year 2, or came closer to Earth, anyway.

There is a skill to outperforming expected stats/contact quality. It is not a coincidence José Ramírez shows up three times in those 35 individual seasons. Know who else shows up three times? Old buddy Didi Gregorius, who outperformed his xSLG by at least 80 points three times with the Yankees. Here is Sir Didi’s career home run spray chart:

Gregorius did not hit a single opposite field home run in his career. He pulled a lot of fly balls and line drives, and as a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium, that meant a lot of short porch homers. Short porch homers are great for actual SLG, but not so much for xSLG. Ramírez is another extreme pull hitter when it comes to fly balls and line drives. He outperforms xSLG for a similar reason.

The hitters who consistently outperform xSLG tend to be guys who pull a lot of balls in the air, like Ramírez and Gregorius, and also Brian Dozier and Scooter Gennett and Dustin Pedroia. They all had seasons with an 80-point difference between SLG and xSLG. The current Rays have a few guys who do this as well (Isaac Paredes is the best example).

Bellinger pulled 35.2% of his fly balls and line drives with the Cubs this season, which is above the 32.8% MLB average for lefty hitters. By comparison though, Ramírez pulled 48.0% (!) of his fly balls and line drives as a lefty batter the last three years, during which he posted a .508 SLG and .459 xSLG. The biggest xSLG overperformers typically reside in the 40%+ range.

During his heyday with the Dodgers from 2017-19, Bellinger pulled 40.1% of his fly balls and line drives, and he paired that with some of the hardest contact in the league. He’s done it before. We are a long way from 2017-19 though, and since then Bellinger has had major right shoulder surgery (his front shoulder when hitting, the power shoulder), so maybe he just can’t hit the ball like he once did? And this new low whiffs version is how he’s compensating?

On that note, Bellinger’s swing is geared for contact down in the zone, and his very best contact came middle-in:

Bellinger can be pitched up in the zone. Leave a pitch middle-in and forget it, Bellinger will park it halfway up the second deck, but he can have trouble getting to stuff above the belt. Guys who do their damage in one specific part of the strike zone make me a little nervous, not that I know what I’m talking about. It just suggests he has a smaller margin of damage as a hitter.

The recent history – the small sample recent history – of players who outperform their expected stats and contact quality as much as Bellinger did this season tells us he’s likely going to take a step back next year, and merely be good instead of great. The Yankees could try to get him to pull the ball more, but that necessarily changes his entire approach, and that opens a whole can of worms. His contact quality probably isn’t good enough to prop up an increased strikeout rate.

Bellinger did make some swing adjustments this year and he did change his two-strike approach specifically, so that 15.9% strikeout rate and 9.3% swinging strike rate isn’t a fluke. He worked at it. I’m just worried that signing Bellinger means buying sky high, and paying .307/.356/.525 prices for a player who might be closer to a .270/.330/.450 true talent hitter (which is still really good!).

The long-term positional fit

Bellinger started 81 games in center field and 44 games at first base this past season, including only 13 starts in center in his final 46 games. All the first base time late in the year had everything to do with Chicago’s roster construction and nothing to do with Bellinger being a deficient center fielder. The guys the Cubs ran out there at first base most of the season positively stunk:

• Eric Hosmer: .234/.280/.330 (67 wRC+) in 100 PA
• Trey Mancini: .234/.299/.336 (74 wRC+) in 263 PA
• Matt Mervis: .167/.242/.289 (46 wRC+) in 99 PA

Former Yankee Mike Tauchman was a pleasant surprise (.252/.363/.377 and 107 wRC+) and the Cubs were hanging around the postseason race late in the season. The best possible team they could put on the field had Tauchman in center and Bellinger at first, so that’s what they did. Bellinger’s lack of center field time was a roster construction issue, not a Bellinger issue.

Historically, Bellinger has rated very well in center field (career +11 DRS and +22 OAA), though he did just have his worst season at the position (-3 DRS and +4 OAA). Small sample? Just a blip? A sign his defense is slipping? Aging out as a center fielder at age 28 is on the young side, though it wouldn’t be completely unprecedented. I’m inclined to trust the track record more than one year of defensive stats, especially for a player at Bellinger’s age.

Talking specifically about the Yankees, they could put Bellinger in center field in the short-term and then move him to first base once he slows down. The downside is Aaron Judge may finish his career as a first baseman, but hopefully that’s a few years off. That’s a “let’s try to win now and we’ll worry about all that other stuff when we have to” problem, I think. Bellinger also has left and right field experience, so maybe the path forward is center to left to first.

Signing Bellinger and then having him show he’s no longer a capable everyday center fielder in 2024 would be very, very bad, but I would be surprised if that happened. He’s still young and he’s so athletic, and he looked good based on my eye test this year. I think it’s reasonable to believe Bellinger can play center from, say, 2024-26, before sliding down the defensive spectrum.

What does he do well?

I’m as guilty of it as anyone, but we get so caught up in the things a player can’t do and all the ways he could negatively regress that we sometimes forget to step back and appreciate what he does bring to the table. In Bellinger’s case, that is:

• A left-handed bat who no longer swings and misses excessively.
• There’s still enough juice in his bat that he hit 26 homers in 2023.
• 20-steal speed and a history of excellent extra-base taken rates.
• Good center field defense (historically) with some versatility.
• The smarts and adaptability to change his swing this year.
• Big market chops and MVP pedigree.

The gap between Bellinger’s actual stats and expected stats is large and it’s likely to shrink, but it can shrink two different ways, right? His actual stats could drop and/or his expected stats could get better, and they did get better (a lot better) in the second half. Bellinger’s young and as far as we know he’s healthy. Perhaps regression comes in the form of better contact quality, not worse results.

Boras called Bellinger a five-tool player and it’s not a stretch. He does so many things to help his team (hit, run, defend, etc.). We’ve seen the downside and it’s ugly – Bellinger hit .193/.256/.355 (69 wRC+) in 900 plate appearances from 2021-22 – though the most recent information is a very good all-around player who does all the things the Yankees sorely lack.

Contract projections

Bellinger took a one-year contract last offseason hoping he would do exactly what he did in 2023, and that is have a monster season that set him up for a huge payday this winter. My money's on Bellinger getting the third largest guarantee behind Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto this offseason, and Bellinger beating Yamamoto wouldn’t completely surprise me.

Here are the various contract projections:

• The Athletic (subs. req’d): 6 years and $162M
• ESPN (subs. req’d): 7 years and $147M
• FanGraphs: 6 years and $144M
• MLBTR: 12 years and $264M

The MLBTR crew typically has a great handle on these things but sheesh, 12 years!? The thing is, I can see how it would happen. Bellinger is 28. A six-year contract takes him to 34, and free agents usually don’t get paid well at that age. If you’re Bellinger, you want a short-term deal that lets you go back into free agency at 29 or 30, or 31 at the latest, or a long-term deal that covers the rest of your career. (The ideal contract is long-term with an early opt out.)

Bellinger already did the short-term contract thing and, realistically, there’s no way he can improve his free agent stock. This is the time to cash in. Maybe he only gets six-year offers. It’s possible, though I’m inclined to think Boras will find at least eight years for Bellinger. Do not doubt the agent who got Hosmer eight years, or convinced the Tigers to move Miguel Cabrera to third base so they could give Prince Fielder nine years. Boras is the best for a reason.

Keep in mind it’s not about years either. It’s about age. Elite players, which Bellinger was once upon a time and might be now (and Boras will surely market him as), get signed through age 37+. Here’s how long the active players with the 10 largest contracts are signed:

• Through age 40 season: Manny Machado
• Through age 39 season: Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge
• Through age 38 season: Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout
• Through age 37 season: Gerrit Cole Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager
• Through age 36 season: none
• Through age 35 season: Fernando Tatis Jr.

Players at the top of the market get signed through age 37, and more often than not through age 38. A 10-year contract takes Bellinger through age 37. Age is the important number. Premier free agents typically get locked up deep into their 30s and you can be sure Boras will want the same for Bellinger, the best full-time position player on the open market this winter.

And, if you’re willing to give Bellinger eight years, why not stretch it out to 9 or 10 (or 12!) years to lower the luxury tax hit? Chances are the end of that contract will be some other GM’s problem, and a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Push the money as far back as possible. The Dodgers did this with Betts, the Phillies did it with Harper, and the Yankees did it on a smaller scale with Aaron Hicks and DJ LeMahieu.

I’m not saying this will definitely happen with Bellinger. I’m just saying don’t be surprised if it does. Don’t apply rationality to a free agent market that is often irrational. Players take the largest offer, not the sensible offer, and it only takes one team to believe 2023 Bellinger is the real Bellinger for 8+ years to suddenly be on the table. Maybe that one team will be the Yankees.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Bellinger makes me yearn for simpler times. When I wrote about Nick Swisher as a possible trade target in Nov. 2008, the extent of my analysis was “he had a career high line drive rate and a career low BABIP this season, so he’s a good bounceback candidate” because that’s as deep as we could go at the time. And that’s pretty much exactly what happened, right? Swisher came to the Yankees and reverted back to his pre-2008 self.

Now we have to think about exit velocity and contact quality and all that, and it’s important stuff, but good gravy, it can make your head spin. It’s so easy to get lost in the weeds and go looking for something that’s not really there, and that’s especially true with a guy like Bellinger, who was very good in 2023 but maybe not in a way that is repeatable according to the underlying data.

To answer the question in the title, I think yes? Then again, I have little faith in the Yankees being able to improve hitters right now. Maybe new hitting coach James Rowson will get their hitter development on track, but we’re in “I need to see it to believe it” territory. The Yankees have lost the benefit of the doubt from me. Bellinger comes with contact quality concerns on top of the blanket “are the Yankees going to screw him up?” concerns.

The “yes” answer to the question depends on the rest of the offseason too. Trading for Juan Soto makes it easier to pass on Bellinger, for example, though Bellinger does a lot of things the Yankees need, and he’s played his entire career in big markets. I’m not worried about him in New York (Dodgers and Cubs fans are insane in their own way, and I say that affectionately). We also have to acknowledge that signing Bellinger this offseason makes it less likely the Yankees pony up for Soto next offseason. Nothing happens in a vacuum.

The simple Swishered down version is Bellinger is young and very talented, and other than his injury-plagued 2021-22 seasons, Bellinger’s been one of the best players in the league. He plays a position of great need for the Yankees, he has skills the Yankees lack, his second half was much better than the first (both on the surface and under the hood), and he can be acquired for money (and draft picks and international bonus money). Bellinger is pretty clearly a fit for the Yankees. They need a guy like him. They really do.

I’m not gonna lie though, Bellinger makes me nervous. I also recognize Gerrit Cole turned 33 in September and Aaron Judge will turn 32 in April. They only have so many prime years remaining. The Yankees are where they are in part because they just didn’t do the obvious thing, like sign Bryce Harper or a shortstop. Signing Bellinger is the obvious thing.

Is Bellinger risky? Absolutely. Incredibly so for a 28-year-old with an MVP on his resume. The risk exists in Year 1 too. When you spend big on a free agent, you usually have a pretty good idea what you’re going to get in Year 1. It’s Years 4+ that are scary. Bellinger is a question right out of the gate. But, because the Yankees passed up so many obvious things in recent years, they have to take risks now. It’s really all they can do given the available talent.

4. Mining the news. There are a few small news items I want to touch on quickly, so let’s do that now to wrap up today’s post.

Marchan given fourth option

Phillies third catcher Rafael Marchan has been given a fourth minor league option, reports Corey Seidman. I bring this up only because it’s an indication teams are now aware who has a fourth option for 2024, which for the Yankees means Yoendrys Gómez and Ben Rortvedt. I think they have fourth options, but man, who really knows?

If Rortvedt is out of options, he could be a candidate to go the Estevan Florial route, meaning the Yankees keep him and then try to pass him through waivers a day or two into the season, after everyone has set their Opening Day roster and is less likely to make a claim. Gómez probably won’t make it through waivers because teams always need pitching, but a catcher with no experience with the pitching staff? Maybe Rortvedt sneaks through.

Anyway, Marchan is an indication teams know who has and does not have a fourth option for next season. When will we find out? Beats me, but the Yankees likely know, and of course that will factor into their offseason activity. Particularly Rortvedt given the position he plays and the depth the Yankees have at catcher at the moment.

Hall of Fame ballot released

The 2024 Hall of Fame ballot was released last week. Here’s the 26-player ballot. Votes are due by the end of the year (I’m only a year away from a vote!) and the Hall of Fame class will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 23rd. Here are the former Yankees on the ballot (some more prominent Yankees than others), and last year’s voting percentages:

• Andruw Jones: 58.1% (this is his 7th year on the ballot)
• Gary Sheffield: 55.0% (10th)
• Carlos Beltrán: 46.5% (2nd)
• Alex Rodriguez: 35.7% (3rd)
• Andy Pettitte: 17.0% (6th)
• Bobby Abreu: 15.4% (5th)
• Bartolo Colon: 1st year on ballot
• Matt Holliday: 1st year on ballot

Beltrán is trending toward induction. It may take another year or two, but players who receive that much support in Year 1 typically get in. Sheffield is unlikely to get in this year, his final year on the ballot. Going from 55.0% to 75% in one year is a huge jump. A-Rod will never get in and Pettitte hasn’t gained any steam in his first five years on the BBWAA’s ballot.

Todd Helton (72.2% last year) and Billy Wagner (68.1%) are good bets to get in this voting cycle, and even if they don’t, they’ll be on the ballot again next year. Adrián Beltré is on the ballot for the first time and is a slam dunk given his 3,166 hits, 477 homers, and +93.5 WAR. I’m curious to see how much support first-timers Joe Mauer and Chase Utley get. Both had incredible peaks, but maybe fall short on longevity.

Also, the Contemporary Baseball Era Non-Players Committee results will be announced Sunday, and as part of the Offseason Calendar, I neglected to mention Bill White is on the ballot. White called Yankees games from 1971-88 and was the first African-American to work as a full-time broadcaster for a major sports team. He also had a successful playing career and served as president of the National League. White and Lou Piniella, who fell one vote short the last time he was up for consideration, are the two men on this year's ballot with ties to the Yankees.

MLB cancels Paris Series

MLB has canceled the 2025 Paris Series because the league couldn’t find a promoter, according to Ron Blum. Teams had not yet been selected, though the Yankees (and Dodgers) made it clear they wanted to go. There’s no word on whether MLB will look to play those games somewhere else, or scrap that two-game international series entirely.

There are four international series on the schedule in 2024:

• March 9-10: Rays vs. Red Sox in Dominican Republic (Spring Training)
• March 20-21: Dodgers vs. Padres in Seoul (regular season)
• April 27-28: Astros vs. Rockies in Mexico City
• June 8-9: Mets vs. Phillies in London

MLB still has series in Tokyo, Mexico City, and Puerto Rico on the schedule for 2025. The Yankees did the Opening Series in Tokyo thing back in 2004, so I’d rather see them go to Mexico City, just because it’ll be something new. That said, if the Yankees sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers sign Shohei Ohtani, you might as well book a hotel room in Tokyo now.

MLB is sending teams to wherever they think they’ll make the most money, though I’d like to see them play games in Italy or the Netherlands. The Netherlands has produced many big league players over the years, including stars like Andruw Jones and Xander Bogaerts, and baseball is reasonably popular in Italy. I mean, the Italian Baseball League has been around since 1948. Maybe go and promote the game there, MLB.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)