November 21st, 2023: Bauers, Non-Tenders, De Los Santos, Yamamoto, Margot, Bummer, Anderson, Britton, Higashioka, Mailbag

Reminder: I am skipping this Friday’s regularly scheduled post. I’ll cover any significant breaking news, otherwise I’m going to take it easy during the long Thanksgiving weekend. I hope you all have a great Turkey Day. Thanks as always for reading and your support. Let’s now get to today’s post as Aaron Judge’s No. 29 is retired at Fresno State.

1. Latest roster moves. The hot stove is beginning to heat up and the Yankees made their first notable move of the offseason late last week. Notable does not mean significant or important, we’re still waiting for something that meaningfully changes the Yankees’ outlook, but it’s not even Thanksgiving yet. Give it time. Here are the latest roster moves.

Bauers traded to Brewers

The Yankees managed to get two living, breathing players for Jake Bauers mere hours before they were going to non-tender him, and send him into free agency. Bauers was traded to the Brewers for outfield prospects Jace Avina and Brian Sánchez on Friday. Milwaukee non-tendered Rowdy Tellez, so I guess Bauers will step in as their lefty platoon first baseman and DH.

Bauers, 28, joined the Yankees in a cash trade with the Reds in June 2022, then re-signed with the team as a minor league free agent last offseason. He began this season in Triple-A, mashed (.359/.485/.897 and 227 wRC+ in 24 games), then got called up late April, once the Yankees had seen enough of Franchy Cordero. Here’s what Bauers did as a Yankee:

• May, June, July: .232/.314/.497 (120 wRC+) with 9 HR and 31.4 K% (172 PA)
• August, September: .154/.220/.275 (26 wRC+) with 3 HR and 41.0 K% (100 PA)

For a little while there it looked like Bauers could be a legit platoon option, especially because he was hitting the ball harder than at any point in his career (seven of the 13 hardest hit balls of his career came in 2023). Then it all fell apart. At one point in the second half Bauers went 3-for-46 (.065) with 24 strikeouts. And it’s not like he was a good defender at first or in the outfield either.

MLBTR projects a $1.7M salary in 2024, and although the Yankees need left-handed bats, there’s just no way they were going to keep Bauers at that price. Not when he’s out of options and can’t be shuttled down to Triple-A. Getting two warm bodies for him is better than the nothing the Yankees would have gotten had they non-tendered him. So long, Jake. Thanks for this.

In return for Bauers, the Yankees received two players in the low minors, including Milwaukee’s 14th round pick in the 2021 draft. That would be Avina, who hit .233/.373/.442 (134 wRC+) with 14 homers and a 29.6% strikeout rate in 399 Low-A plate appearances this year. MLB.com slotted him in at No. 30 on their Yankees’ prospects list. Here’s part of their write-up:

Avina shows double-plus raw power from the right side, and he’s capable of crushing some absolute moonshots to the pull side. It’s that slugging potential that made him command the attention of scouts and fans alike in his first taste of the Minors. What soured many was that the blasts came with more-than-unhealthy strikeout rates around 35 percent. The right-handed slugger would get swing-happy in search of his next dinger and expand the zone so much that he would still punch out when pitchers wouldn’t dare throw him a strike … A 6.7 60-yard runner in high-school showcases, Avina should keep enough speed to feature well at all three outfield spots.

Another boom or bust-y exit velocity guy. Avina did kinda sorta get his strikeout rate under control this past season (33.3% in his first 50 games and 26.3% in his last 49 games), though the track record of guys who strike out that much in Low-A isn’t great. That said, the Yankees got Avina for Bauers at the non-tender deadline. They weren’t exactly in position to demand a huge return.

Sánchez, 19, slashed .297/.414/.446 (129 wRC+) with no home runs and nearly as many walks (15.6%) as strikeouts (18.0%) in 33 Dominican Summer League games this year. The Brewers signed him as part of their 2023 international class in February, so the kid is less than one calendar year into his pro career. I have no other information on Sánchez. Sorry.

Getting something for Bauers, even two lottery tickets in the low minors, is better than nothing, so good work getting Avina and Sánchez. Maybe one or both will develop into a legit prospect, maybe they’ll never play above High-A, or maybe they’ll have value as the third or fourth piece in a trade. Keep adding dart throws and eventually you’ll hit the bullseye.

Abreu, Misiewicz, Trivino non-tendered

There were no surprises at Friday’s non-tender deadline. Bauers was traded and the Yankees non-tendered lefty Anthony Misiewicz and righties Albert Abreu and Lou Trivino. Trivino was projected to make $4.1M in 2024 and it’s tough to justify that when you already know he’ll miss at least half the season with Tommy John surgery rehab, and will be a free agent next offseason. Sorry, Lou.

The Yankees got Misiewicz in a July waiver claim from the Tigers and he spent most of the rest of the season with Triple-A Scranton, though he did get called up in September, when the bullpen was decimated by injuries. Misiewicz appeared in three games with the Yankees and all three were eventful.

• Sept. 10th: Got the win in the game the Yankees were no-hit into the 11th inning by the Brewers (video).
• Sept. 12th: Struck out Adam Duvall to strand two runners in the RailRiders bullpen game at Fenway Park (video).
• Sept. 15th: Exited after taking a line drive to the head in Pittsburgh (video).

I haven’t seen any updates on Misiewicz since he was released from the hospital the day after he was hit by the comebacker. He was alert and joking with his teammates as they carted him off the field, so I guess it can’t be too bad. Hopefully all is well now.

I thought the Yankees might keep Misiewicz because their lefty bullpen depth is non-existent now that Wandy Peralta is a free agent. It’s Matt Krook and Nick Ramirez. That’s it. Maybe they’ll try to re-sign Misiewicz to a minor league deal. We’ll see. No offense Anthony, but the next time I spell your last name correctly on the first try will be the first time. Hope the head’s okay.

Abreu was overhated as the last guy in the bullpen. That isn’t to say Abreu was good, only that teams need a mop up guy who doesn’t get regular work and can still give them 2-3 innings at a time when called upon. Everyone will complain about the next guy who gets that job as much as they complained about Abreu. It is the baseball circle of life.

After the Bauers trade and the three non-tenders, the Yankees have four open 40-man roster spots, and they could easily open a few more. Krook, Ramirez, and Estevan Florial are all DFA candidates when a spot is needed, plus the Yankees will move one or more of the six catchers on the 40-man. There’s plenty of roster flexibility right now.

No “pre-tender” signings for Yankees

The Yankees did not sign any players to “pre-tender” contracts prior to the non-tender deadline. Sometimes a team will make a fringe roster guy an offer, say take it or we’re non-tendering you, and get him signed early and below his projected salary. Not every pre-tender signing is like that, sometimes a deal just comes together quickly, but many are take or leave it contracts.

The lack of pre-tenders is neither a good thing nor a bad thing. It’s just a thing, and I wanted to note the Yankees haven’t signed any of their guys yet. They came into the offseason with 17 arbitration-eligible players and are down to eight. The eight and their MLBTR projected salaries:

• Gleyber Torres: $15.3M (fourth time eligible as Super Two) ($9.95M in 2023)
• Clay Holmes: $6M (third time eligible) ($3.3M in 2023)
• Nestor Cortes: $3.9M (second time eligible) ($3.2M in 2023)
• Jose Trevino: $2.7M (second time eligible) ($2.36M in 2023)
• Mike King: $2.6M (second time eligible) ($1.3M in 2023)
• Clarke Schmidt: $2.6M (first time eligible as Super Two) ($740,475 in 2023)
• Jonathan Loáisiga: $2.5M (third time eligible) ($2.2625M in 2023)
• Kyle Higashioka: $2.3M (third time eligible) ($1.4625M in 2023)

The deadline to exchange salary figures – the date the vast majority of arbitration-eligible players will sign one-year contracts for 2024 – is Jan. 12th, so still a ways off. My not-so-bold prediction is at least one of those eight players will not be a Yankee come the Jan. 12th filing deadline. The smart money is on Higashioka, but who knows? Maybe the Yankees will actually trade Torres.

Yankees sign De Los Santos

The Yankees have signed righty reliever Yerry De Los Santos, his representatives announced on Instagram. I assume it’s a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. De Los Santos, 26 next month, has a 4.14 ERA (4.02 FIP) in 50 career big league innings, all with the Pirates. That includes a 3.33 ERA (4.04 FIP) in 24.1 innings in 2023. He has two minor league options remaining, should he find himself on the 40-man roster at some point.

De Los Santos is a career reliever – he hasn’t started a game since he was in the Dominican Summer League in 2015 – and he has a Yankees-esque sinker/slider/changeup arsenal. He throws the mid-90s sinker about 60% of the time, and last year he threw the slider and changeup almost equally. The sinker in action (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Based on that two-pitch GIF, I feel like I’ve seen this exact pitcher come out of the Yankees' bullpen a couple dozen times in the Matt Blake era. De Los Santos averaged about 1,600 rpm of spin on his changeup this year, well below the 1,789 mph league average, and generally speaking you want low spin on changeups. Low spin creates that tumbling action downward.

De Los Santos hasn’t missed bats (20.4% strikeouts and 7.7% swinging strikes) or avoided ball four (11.1% walks) at the MLB level, though he has kept the ball on the ground (53.8%). The Yankees have more than earned the benefit of the doubt with rando relievers. That doesn’t mean they’ll all work out. Only that these seemingly uninteresting signings should never be overlooked. The next Ian Hamilton is only a minor league deal away.

It’s not even Thanksgiving. To sign De Los Santos this early in the offseason, the Yankees had to consider him a priority target, which suggests they have a plan to help him improve. He doesn’t get much horizontal break on his slider, so maybe he’s a sweeper candidate? I dunno. We’ll find out in Spring Training. Welcome, Yerry. Baseball needs more Yerrys.

2. Latest hot stove rumors. We have our first Content Graveyard entry of the offseason. I wrote a blurb on the Yankees’ rumored interest in Aaron Nola, then he re-signed with the Phillies over the weekend. Seven years and $172M. The Nola deal presumably takes Philadelphia out of the running for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, so one fewer competitor there. Anyway, the Nola blurb is in the Content Graveyard. Here now are the latest hot stove nuggets.

Yamamoto officially posted

At long last, Orix Buffaloes ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto has officially been posted. MLB signed off and informed teams he is available Monday. Yamamoto’s 45-day posting period opens at 8am ET on Tuesday (i.e. today) and closes at 5pm ET on Thursday, Jan. 4th. He can sign any time within those 45 days, though it sounds like Yamamoto will explore his options and is in no rush.

Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar, Yamamoto’s World Baseball Classic teammate, posted video of the two of them playing golf last week, so I think Yamamoto is in the United States? Shohei Ohtani, Kodai Senga, and Masahiro Tanaka visited teams when they were posted, and I guess Yamamoto is doing the same. If he is, we’ll get word of a Yankee Stadium visit before long.

Here’s my Yamamoto breakdown. Short version: He’s great and the Yankees should sign him. Basically every big market contender is interested in him though, as well as some other clubs. The Dodgers and Mets figure to be the stiffest competition, and the Dodgers could be focused on Ohtani. Either way, Yamamoto has been posted. The 45-day clock is ticking.

Yankees interested in Margot

According to the never to be doubted Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Yankees have “engaged the Rays in multiple conversations this offseason” about outfielder Manny Margot. Their interest in Margot is not new. We first heard the Yankees had interest in him at the 2021 trade deadline. I’m pretty sure Margot was a thing at this last year’s trade deadline too.

Including arbitration projections, Tampa already has $125.8M on the books next season, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That would be the largest payroll in franchise history by roughly $40M, so yeah, they’ll shed money this winter. Tyler Glasnow ($25M in 2024) is likely to be traded, ditto Margot ($12M), who is at best their fourth outfielder behind Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, and Jose Siri.

Margot, 29, is one of those guys the Rays have maxed out by optimizing his skills and his usage, specifically his ability to get the bat on the ball on pitches down in the zone with his golfy swing. It’s not just a lefty/righty matchup thing. Margot is most effective against sinkers and pitchers who pound the bottom of the zone in general. His 2021-23 contact heat map:

There’s a hole up and away, but anything down, Margot will get to it, so the Rays match him up against guys who pitch down in the zone. Margot hit .265/.310/.376 (93 wRC+) with four home runs in 336 plate appearances around an elbow injury this season. He’s always been a low walk (5.4% in 2023), low strikeout (16.4% in 2023) guy who is more effective against lefties.

• 2021-23 vs. RHP: .250/.299/.362 (88 wRC+) with 18.1 K% and 6.3 BB%
• 2021-23 vs. LHP: .290/.348/.409 (115 wRC+) with 13.7 K% and 7.8 BB%

Defensively, the numbers say Margot is good in the corners and at best average in center, and likely worse than that. It's a classic role player skill set. A corner outfielder who can play center in a pinch, and is on the light side of the platoon. He’s most effective against pitches down too, so you really have to thread the needle to put Margot in the best position to succeed.

Brian Cashman said the Yankees want two left-handed hitting outfielders this offseason, and if they get them, there could be a place on the roster for someone like Margot as a righty complement. But geez, would they really trade something to get him and then pay him $12M next year ($10M salary plus $2M option buyout)? The Yankees can afford high-priced bench guys, but that’s excessive.

To me, Margot is a worse version of Harrison Bader. Bader’s strikeout rate (17.2% in 2023) is in the same range as Margot’s, his platoon splits are similar to Margot’s (82 wRC+ vs. RHP and 114 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2021), and he’s a much better defender. Bader only costs money too, and he’ll likely cost less money in 2024 than Margot. Am I missing something here?

Margot is stretched as an everyday player, particularly offensively. The Rays recognized that and used him accordingly. As a bench guy who fills a specific role (lefty masher/low ball hitter), he is useful, though he’s pricey and you have to trade something to get him. It really depends what else the Yankees do this offseason, but at a glance, Margot gets a great big ehhh.

Bummer traded to Braves

Re-signing or replacing Wandy Peralta is on the offseason to-do list (it’s not at the top of the list, but it’s on there) and one of the better lefty reliever trade candidates changed teams over the weekend. The White Sox sent Aaron Bummer to the Braves for five (!) players. Here are the five and my best estimation of the Yankees equivalent:

• RHP Mike Soroka: RHP Jonathan Loáisiga (one year of a very injury prone pitcher)
• LHP Jared Shuster: RHP Randy Vásquez (MLB-ready-ish starting pitcher)
• IF Nicky Lopez: No good comp (two years of a glove-only infielder)
• IF Braden Shewmake: UTIL Oswaldo Cabrera (utility guy who may or may not hit)
• RHP Riley Gowens: RHP Josh Grosz (2023 late round pick with good pitch data)

The trade looks like the Braves went to the Trade Values site and kept adding players until the numbers matched up, and new ChiSox GM Chris Getz said yes. It’s quantity over quality. The White Sox get a reclamation project and possible deadline trade chip (Soroka), a possible No. 4-5 starter (Shuster), a possible No. 8-9 hitter (Shewmake), a lottery ticket (Gowens), and also Lopez for some reason.

I don’t know what the package of names would have looked like, though I’m sure the Yankees could have cobbled together four or five players they wouldn’t miss to get Bummer. Bummer, a former Yankees draft pick (31st round in 2011, but did not sign), had an ugly 6.79 ERA in 58.1 innings in 2023, though the under-the-hood numbers were much more impressive:

• Strikeout rate: 29.2% (MLB average: 22.7%)
• Walk rate: 13.5% (MLB average: 8.6%)
• Ground ball rate: 58.2% (MLB average: 42.5%)
• Barrel rate: 2.7% (MLB average: 8.1%)

Too many walks, no doubt about it, but that’s an awful lot of strikeouts and ground balls and weak contact. That’s a strong foundation for a late-inning reliever. Among the 357 pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched in 2023, Bummer had by far the largest gap between his ERA and FIP, and ERA and xFIP (in a good way). Here are the leaderboards:

ERA minus FIP
1. Aaron Bummer: 3.21 (6.79 - 3.58)
2. Shintaro Fujinami: 2.57 (7.18 - 4.61)
3. Zach Davies: 2.42 (7.00 - 4.58)

ERA minus xERA
1. Aaron Bummer: 3.29 (6.79 - 3.53)
2. Shintaro Fujinami: 2.38 (7.18 - 4.80)
3. Connor Seabold: 2.29 (7.52 - 5.23)

The White Sox as a team had -59 DRS and -17 OAA this year, and poor Bummer got saddled with a .299 BABIP on ground balls. The league average is .244, and remember, Bummer had a 58.2% ground ball rate. Ground balls and a poor defense are a bad combination.

Bummer, 30, is a mid-90s sinker/slider guy. The Yankees’ thing is taking relievers who haven’t been good previously and making them good (Peralta, Clay Holmes, etc.), and Bummer was pretty darn good from 2019-22. You can see how a sinker/slider lefty with better underlying numbers than surface stats could appeal to them though.

(Bummer has an affordable contract too: $5.5M in 2024 with a $7.25M club option for 2025 and a $7.5M club option for 2026.)

Maybe the Yankees tried for Bummer and the White Sox liked Atlanta’s offer better, or maybe the Yankees didn’t want to trade anything when they can simply buy a lefty reliever for money. And I’m not saying the Yankees were dumb to not get him. Bummer just stood out as a possible trade target and he got traded elsewhere. He was a possible fit, for sure.

(The Braves signed righty Reynaldo López to a three-year, $30M contract Monday. They’ve invested a lot in their bullpen these last few weeks between Bummer, López, Joe Jiménez, and Pierce Johnson. They have their core signed so affordably and have so much flexibility, yet we’re still waiting for The Big Move. Maybe Atlanta will drop the hammer and sign Ohtani or Yamamoto.)

Yankees had interest in Anderson

The Yankees had interest in right-hander Nick Anderson prior to the non-tender deadline, reports Joel Sherman. They also tried to sign Anderson last offseason, after the Rays non-tendered him. The Braves sent Anderson to the Royals for $100,000 in a cash trade Friday afternoon (per the Associated Press), a few hours before the non-tender deadline.

Anderson going to the Royals for $100,000 tells me either the Yankees didn’t want him that badly, or the Braves just didn’t want to trade him to the Yankees. Maybe they were worried they’d run into him in the World Series or something. I dunno. My guess is the Yankees like Anderson but don’t love him. Not enough to offer Atlanta more than $100,000, anyway.

Now 33, Anderson was a MFer for a few years with Tampa, pitching to 2.77 ERA (2.15 FIP) with a 42.2% strikeout rate from 2019-20. Like most Rays pitchers though, Anderson got hurt, and he missed most of 2021 and all of 2022 with the internal brace procedure. The Rays non-tendered him last offseason and the Braves signed him to a one-year deal worth $875,000.

Anderson started 2023 well enough, then things began to fall apart, and a shoulder injury ended his season in July. He had a 3.06 ERA (3.09 FIP) with a 25.5% strikeout rate. As Ben Clemens wrote in June, Anderson’s stuff wasn’t the same after his elbow surgery. Specifically, his elite bat-missing fastball didn’t have the same life and didn’t get as many whiffs.

The Royals aren’t going to contend next season and likely not in 2025 either (Anderson has two years of team control remaining). Would they flip Anderson to the Yankees? Like, right now, and not wait until the trade deadline? Maybe they’d trade him for a Grade C prospect and essentially buy a prospect. Anyway, the Yankees had interest in Anderson. Instead he went to the Royals. So it goes.

Britton calls it a career

It’s official: Zack Britton has retired. Britton, who last pitched in 2022, told Britt Ghiroli (subs. req’d) he is retiring because he wants to spend more time with his family. He rushed back from Tommy John surgery because he wanted a ring and to help the Yankees late last season, and wound up walking six of the nine batters he faced in September, and injuring his shoulder.

“My last outing was against the Orioles. I threw a ball to the backstop as my last pitch (video). I think about that and it sucks,” Britton told Ghiroli (subs. req’d). “It might not have been perfect from a career standpoint or going out on a high note, but you don’t always get to pick. My gut was telling me it was time to see what life was like on the other side.”

Still only 35, Britton of course began his career with the Orioles before joining the Yankees at the 2018 trade deadline. He was terrific with the Yankees from 2018-20 (2.14 ERA with a 76.3% ground ball rate), before his elbow began giving him trouble in 2021. Britton had a 2.95 ERA in 18.1 postseason innings with the Yankees as well. He was damn good from 2018-20.

“Putting on that uniform and walking into the clubhouse, the history of it hits you,” Britton told Ghiroli (subs. req’d) about his time with the Yankees. “The whole experience of being a Yankee is impressive. You are playing for one of the most recognized sports teams in the world. The way they treat you and the things you get, I wouldn’t trade that experience for the world. I wish I had won a World Series there. I wish I hadn’t been injured as much as I had. That was special.”

I kept waiting for word to come down that the Yankees had re-signed Britton last offseason, but it never came. I figured it would be a cheap one-year deal, and you could talk yourself into him being effective as he got further away from surgery. Plus the Yankees loved him and he loved being a Yankee. I thought a reunion was inevitable. Instead, Britton sat out the season.

It kinda sucks, but I will remember Britton for three things, and none of them were good for him. First, the Yankees scored 12 runs in the first inning in a game Britton started against them back in 2011 (video). It was his 19th MLB game. Second, I’ll remember Buck Showalter leaving Britton in the bullpen in the 2016 AL Wild Card Game. He had a 0.54 ERA that season! Sheesh.

And third, I’ll remember Britton giving up a walk-off homer in the Field of Dreams Game. He told Aaron Boone to take him out of the closer’s role after that. Britton told Ghiroli (subs. req’d) he knew he needed Tommy John surgery at the time, but kept pitching because Aroldis Chapman was hurt and the Yankees were short-handed in the bullpen. Admirable, but not exactly smart.

Britton retires with 154 saves and a career 3.13 ERA in 641 innings, and a ridiculous 66.7% ground ball rate. That is the highest career ground ball rate on record (min. 500 innings, batted ball data goes back to 2002). From 2014-20, Britton was on the short list of the game’s most dominant relievers. He was likable and funny too. Enjoy retirement, Zack.

3. The case for keeping Higashioka. Several backup catchers found themselves looking for work after Friday’s non-tender deadline. The Cardinals non-tendered Andrew Knizner (projected $2M in 2024) even though their pitchers are said to prefer throwing to him. The Marlins moved on from Jacob Stallings ($3.6M), who got way too much attention as a possible Gary Sánchez replacement a few years ago. The Padres also cut ties with Austin Nola ($2.35M).

The Yankees opted to keep Kyle Higashioka ($2.3M) even though they currently have six – six! – catchers on the 40-man roster: Higashioka, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Trevino, Austin Wells, and the recently added Carlos Narvaez and Agustin Ramirez. There’s little chance the Yankees carry six 40-man catchers into the season, so expect a trade or two (or three!) this winter.

“It’s not a strong position in the game,” Brian Cashman told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) last week. “It’s not a deep position in the game. A lot of teams are knocking on our door about our catching depth. It’s an area of strength for us.”

Higashioka is the obvious candidate to go. He will turn 34 in April and is the oldest of the group – Higashioka is a year older than Brian McCann was when the Yankees traded him to make room for Sánchez – and he’s a year away from free agency. He also has a seven-figure salary. The oldest player with a (relatively) big salary and the least amount of team control is usually first to go, yeah.

There is a case for keeping Higashioka, however, and it’s not some convoluted argument that requires you to squint your eyes and envision six different things happening first. It’s pretty straightforward, I think. The case for keeping Higashioka goes like this:

• Trevino is coming back from season-ending wrist surgery. Can we make sure his wrist is healthy and he’s capable of swinging a bat in competitive games first?
• Wells might need more time in Triple-A. He looked good in late September, but it was only late September, and Wells has 33 career games at Triple-A. That’s nothing.
• Rortvedt might actually be out of options. I think he has a fourth option, but this stuff is tricky, and I don’t know that for certain. Rortvedt could be a roster casualty.
• Ramirez isn’t MLB depth. He’s one season removed from rookie ball and has only 31 career games at Double-A. In 2024, Ramirez is an emergency call up option only.

Also, the Yankees are not hurting for roster space. They have four open 40-man roster spots at the moment and can easily move on from Estevan Florial, Matt Krook, and Nick Ramirez when more space is needed. Jasson Domínguez can go on the 60-day injured list once camp begins as well. Trading a catcher is not imperative for roster flexibility purposes.

It’s possible the Yankees misread the market and the Knizner, Nola, and Stallings non-tenders indicate the backup catcher market isn’t all that hot. That seems unlikely, but even if that’s what happened, it’s not the end of the world. Worst case scenario is the Yankees release Higashioka at some point to clear the way for a Trevino and Wells tandem, and have to eat a little money.

Higashioka’s trade value (or lack thereof) factors into the equation as well. The catching position is weak around the league, but it’s one year of a backup catcher. You can only expect so much in return. The Reds got a non-top 30 team prospect for one year of Tucker Barnhart not too long ago. Keeping Higashioka doesn’t mean passing up a significant (or even decent) trade haul.

There’s a nightmare scenario in which the Yankees trade Higashioka, cut Rortvedt because he’s out of options, then Trevino’s wrist starts barking and Wells shows he’s not quite ready to be the No. 1 catcher at the big league level. In that case the Yankees would be in trouble with or without Higashioka, though with Higashioka they’d at least have a viable big league catcher.

Catchers get hurt all the time. Wells broke a rib in Spring Training this year and missed the start of the season. Trevino originally hurt his wrist in Spring Training too. It is a punishing position and you don’t trade MLB-caliber catching depth just because. And in Higashioka’s case, he’s catching depth who knows the pitching staff and is popular in the clubhouse. Those are pluses.

The Yankees have a much better handle on Trevino’s wrist and Rortvedt’s option status than we do, and I suspect they will only trade Higashioka once they’re comfortable with the other guys they have in-house (or they get blown away with an offer). In that sense, keeping Higashioka could be a tell. It could indicate Trevino’s not 100% yet and/or the Yankees aren’t ready to go all-in on youth behind the plate.

I expect Higashioka to get traded at some point and I’m not against it. As long as Trevino’s wrist is okay, I think the Yankees will be fine behind the plate. I’m just laying out the case for keeping Higashioka, because it’s not all that crazy. The Yankees won’t get a huge return and there are some questions with their other catchers. Trading him would be fine, but it’s not imperative.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Mike asks: Should the Yankees sign Woodruff? Are there any other non-tenders the Yankees should take a look at?

The Brewers non-tendered Brandon Woodruff, which wasn’t surprising after it was announced he had shoulder surgery last month and will miss most, if not all, of 2024. MLBTR projected an $11.6M salary next year, his final year of team control, and no team was going to pay Woodruff that much to rehab and then become a free agent. Especially not the small market Brewers.

Woodruff, 31 in February, has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last four years, and even this year he had a 2.28 ERA (3.60 FIP) in 67 innings around his shoulder trouble. He’s the guy fans of every team want this winter. Give him two years, let him rehab in 2024, then turn him loose in 2025. That kinda thing. Teams do that all the time with Tommy John surgery guys.

Shoulder surgery, specifically the capsule surgery Woodruff had, is much more serious than Tommy John surgery though. Capsule surgery has ruined many careers. John Danks, Mark Prior, Rich Harden, Johan Santana, etc. They all came back greatly diminished. There have been a few success stories (namely Julio Urías), but capsule surgery is usually very bad news.

I’m not sure what an appropriate contract is here – $2M in 2024 and $10M in 2025 with another $10M in bonuses tied to innings? – but sure, Woodruff is worth a look given his pedigree and the perpetual need for pitching. There’s a chance this is a “everyone wants him, then he has a 6.50 ERA in 34 innings in 2025” situation, but there are worse rolls of the dice, and the Yankees can afford to burn money on an injured pitcher with upside (they have offseason 40-man roster flexibility too).

Here is the full list of 63 non-tenders and here are a few other than Woodruff who caught my eye:

IF Luis Guillorme (Mets): A gifted defender with a knack for flashy plays, Guillorme posted some of the lowest strikeout and swing and miss rates in the league up until this past season (14.1% strikeout rate and 4.4% swinging strike rate from 2021-22). He’s a lefty bat with a backup infielder’s skill set. Possible bench candidate in the event the Yankees trade Oswald Peraza.

LHP Tim Hill (Padres): The Yankees had interest in Hill back in the day and, for the most part, he’s been an effective lefty matchup guy over the years. For whatever reason though, his strikeout rate cratered the last two seasons …

… though he’s been a consistent 60% ground ball rate guy throughout his career. The Padres are not the best at improving pitchers. I’d be interested to see what Matt Blake could do with the 33-year-old sidearmer (video). The Yankees do need a lefty to replace Wandy Peralta, though I see Hill as more of a second lefty in the bullpen than the go-to guy in high leverage situations.

LHP Brandon Hughes (Cubs): A converted position player, Hughes has interesting pitch data. He spams hitters with a big sweepy slider (video) and has held lefties to a .227/.309/.291 (.275 wOBA) line with a 30.9% strikeout rate in relatively limited MLB time. Hughes had knee surgery in June and I’m not sure what his status is (the non-tender suggests the knee status is not great), but he’s only 28 and he has all three minor league options remaining. Unless his knee is a complete mess, Hughes seems like a worthwhile target.

LHP Angel Perdomo (Braves): I had Perdomo on my list of minor league contract candidates for the Offseason Plan, but the Braves claimed him on waivers after the Pirates designated him for assignment, so he never actually became a free agent (until now). Anyway, Perdomo is a 6-foot-8 lefty who has touched 100 mph (video). He had Tommy John surgery in October, so you have to sit on him for a year, but big lefties who throw hard are always worth a minor league deal. (Former Twins lefty Jovani Moran can really spin his curveball. He recently had Tommy John surgery as well and is another southpaw you’d have to sit on for a year.)

RHP Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Not everyone regains their stuff after Tommy John surgery and Turnbull came back this year down a grade on the radar gun, and with less bite on everything. It was only 31 innings though, and perhaps he can regain his 2019-21 league average-ish form (4.13 ERA and 3.67 FIP) as he gets further away from surgery. Turnbull could be a fit as a No. 6 starter/swingman type.

The Tigers also non-tendered Austin Meadows and the Yankees do need a lefty hitting left fielder, though Meadows stepped away from the Tigers in April to focus on his mental health. It was his second straight year leaving the team. I haven’t seen any updates and, given the non-tender, I assume Meadows isn’t planning to play anytime soon. He’s not really an option right now.

Colin asks: Obviously Soto is the top left handed outfielder on the trade market and the Cardinals are often brought up as a team with surplus OF'ers, but is there any chance that Cashman may look to target one of the Reds outfielders? Specifically Friedl, Fraley or Benson. I feel like Fraley is exactly the kind of guy Cashman would target: Not the obvious solution, often injured and is left handed - what’s not to like? But in all seriousness - of those three which do you think Cincinnati might trade and which would be best fit for the Yankees? And would any of them be realistic?

Someone floated the Reds to me as a sleeper team for Juan Soto recently. They have pitching prospects to trade, an exciting young core at the MLB level, little money on the books now that Joey Votto’s contract has expired, and the NL Central is winnable. Reds ownership has occasionally gone out and spent big (Votto, Mike Moustakas, etc.), so Cincinnati paying a huge salary for one year of Soto isn’t completely crazy.

Anyway, the Reds have three left-handed hitting outfielders in Jake Fraley, Will Benson, and MVP tenth place vote-getter TJ Friedl (not even from a Cincinnati writer!). Benson is a strict platoon guy. The Reds barely used him against lefties and he hit .297/.389/.549 (147 wRC+) against righties. Between Benson and Nolan Jones, the Guardians gave away some good young outfielders last offseason, at a time when their outfield is really weak. Two whiffs there by the typically sharp Cleveland front office.

Fraley gets platooned even more heavily than Benson. Only 41 of his 380 plate appearances this year came against lefties, and while he hit .268/.348/.467 (115 wRC+) against righties, he started very well and then really cooled off in the second half, so much so that he began to lose his regular lineup spot. And, like Colin says, Fraley gets hurt fairly often.

Friedl hit 18 homers this year, which is about 15 more than was expected during his prospect days. He was billed as a no power slash-and-dash type. Friedl hit .279/.352/.467 (116 wRC+) and went 27-for-33 (82%) stealing bases in addition to hitting those 18 homers. He also posted strong strikeout (16.2%) and swinging strike (6.8%) rates. Friedl had a hell of a season.

Friedl is 28 with five years of control remaining. Fraley is 28 with three years of control. Benson is 25 with five years to go. Defensively, Friedl rates above average in the corners. The other two are below average defenders (Benson is pretty rough from what I saw this season). Friedl’s offensive skill set is very Gardnerian, though Brett was the superior left field defender.

My guess is the Reds prefer to move Fraley given the fewer years of team control and salary that isn’t close to the minimum (MLBTR projects $2.2M in 2024). Friedl had a great season, though he outperformed his contact quality significantly (.467 SLG vs. .321 xSLG), and this might be the best time to move him. There’s a case for selling high before the regression hits.

SLG minus xSLG (min. 250 plate appearances)
1. TJ Friedl: .146 (.467 - .321)
2. Isaac Paredes: .124 (.488 - .364)
3. Elehuris Montero: .115 (.429 - .314)

The Reds could use a starter and bullpen help, and right now, Fraley’s not even guaranteed a lineup spot. Their projected outfield is Friedl, Benson with a platoon partner, and Spencer Steer, who hit .271/.356/.464 (118 wRC+) as a rookie. Do the Reds want a prospect or an MLB pitcher? Clayton Beeter for Fraley works for me, which likely means the Reds would say no.

A lefty platoon bat with an injury history, a below average glove, and a seven-figure salary does not have a ton of trade value. An injury and/or a down year at the plate and Fraley’s a non-tender candidate. I think we all hope the Yankees aim higher than various Reds outfielders, though there is a potential match here. I suspect the asking price will be so high on Friedl that he’s not worth pursuing. Benson is fine. Fraley is the Reds outfielder most likely to go.

Brian asks: What are the odds that instead of going big on Yoshinobu (as they should) the Yankees go with Shota Imanaga who is due to be posted? He's older, probably not quite as good, and a lefty. I can just see them not spending the big bucks on the star and instead going with this signing and spinning it as a big upgrade for the team. I haven't seen anything about Shota to know how good he is.

By all accounts, this is not a Kei Igawa situation, where the lesser of the two Japanese pitchers posted in the same offseason comes with questions about his MLB viability (Igawa was posted the same offseason as Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was a Very Big Deal). Yoshinobu Yamamoto is clearly the top prize this winter. Imanaga is pretty darn good in his own right.

Imanaga, 30, had a 2.66 ERA with a 29.5% strikeout rate in 159 innings this season. That’s in a league with a 19.2% strikeout rate, and it’s better than Yamamoto’s 26.7% strikeout rate. Imanaga has consistently ranked among the strikeout leaders in Japan thanks to a fastball with elite metrics. It gets a ton of whiffs up in the zone. Here’s more from R.J. Anderson:

Imanaga is a fastball-heavy pitcher, slinging his rising low-90s heater close to 60% of the time. He's thrown just one other pitch more than 15% of the time this season: his low-80s slider. Imanaga does have a ton of other pitches that play cameo roles, including a low-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. He does a good job of generating chases with his fastball, while his slider has coerced nearly 40% whiffs.

The best MLB comp for a lefty with a whiff-heavy fastball and so-so everything else is a former Yankee: Andrew Heaney. Heaney didn’t pitch well with the Yankees, but his fastball is excellent, and it’s not a coincidence the very smart Dodgers signed him two offseason ago. Imanaga is cut from the same cloth and, not coincidentally, the Dodgers are said to be the top suitor for him.

Imanaga is good, but Yamamoto has to be the priority given his age. For better or worse, the Yankees don’t do multi-year contracts for non-elite free agent starters, and Imanaga is in that bucket. The various contract projections have him in the five-year, $85M range. If the Yankees miss out on Yamamoto, I think they would sign an MLB starter who’s a safer bet, not Imanaga.

Dan asks: How far away is Gerrit Cole from the Hall of Fame right now?

Cole is maybe 70% of the way to the Hall of Fame now? He’s had the Hall of Fame peak – the Cy Young certainly helps, but was not imperative for Hall of Fame purposes – and now he needs to work on the longevity component. JAWS rates Cole’s current Hall of Fame worthiness behind contemporaries like Jon Lester, Chris Sale, Adam Wainwright, and even Jacob deGrom.

As long as he stays healthy, Cole is good bet to reach 200 wins (currently 145) and 3,000 strikeouts (currently 2,152). He’s at +40.7 WAR, and +60 WAR is when the serious Hall of Fame discussion begins (CC Sabathia retired at +61.8 WAR, for example). I think Cole needs at least two more ace-caliber seasons, and then a gentle decline to get into Cooperstown.

Hall of Fame cases are most often derailed by injuries in the player’s 30s. Cole’s on the Hall of Fame track right now and he's done the hard part already (being one of the best in the league for 5-6 years). Now he just has to stay healthy and compile a bit. And if he does get into the Hall of Fame, Cole will go in as a Yankee. His No. 45 is a good bet to be retired either way.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)