November 7th, 2023: Mendoza, Volpe, Narvaez, Lee, Montas

Site note: I’m planning to skip the regularly scheduled post on Friday, Nov. 24th. That is two weeks from this Friday and it is the day after Thanksgiving. If there is breaking news, I will happily cover it, otherwise I’m going to lay low during the long holiday weekend. Let’s now get to today’s post as Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman will finally hold press conferences Tuesday and acknowledge the season has ended.

1. Mendoza to become Mets manager. Carlos Mendoza has finally landed a managerial job. Aaron Boone’s bench coach is leaving the Yankees to manage the Mets. Craig Counsell is not staying with the Brewers though. He’s going to the Cubs. Makes sense, right? They’re giving him a record contract (five years and $40M!) and he gets to stay close to Milwaukee, his hometown.

(David Ross was fired to open the job for Counsell. Tough business, but Ross will land on his feet. A team admitting its broadcaster-turned-manager wasn’t working out? What a concept!)

For about 20 minutes Monday afternoon it seemed like Counsell might be joining the Yankees. Ken Rosenthal reported Counsell was going to an unknown team that already had a manager in place, and earlier in the day the Yankees announced Hal Steinbrenner will hold a Zoom call Tuesday. Folks started to connect the dots. (Brian Cashman will also speak Tuesday, though that’s part of the normal GM Meetings media availability.)

Ultimately though, Counsell to the Yankees never passed the sniff test. The Yankees are happy with Boone and Hal’s not doing a Zoom call to discuss Counsell. Come on. They’d make a huge show of it with a big press conference at Yankee Stadium. Hal’s not the type to pay top dollar for a manager either. That was one reason the Yankees replaced Joe Girardi with Boone.

Anyway, Mendoza, 43, is a Yankees lifer. He played in the farm system from 2006-09, then began coaching in the lower rungs of the minors. Mendoza managed and/or coached at every level as he climbed the ladder, and was eventually promoted to the Major League staff after the 2017 season. He was infield coach from 2018-19 and bench coach from 2020-23.

"His day is coming without a doubt,” Cashman told Max Goodman about Mendoza in March 2021. “He is going to manage a Major League team and I think he's gonna be really good at it.”

Mendoza interviewed with four teams this offseason: Giants, Guardians, Mets, and also the Padres according to Kevin Acee. He interviewed with the Red Sox, Tigers, and White Sox in previous offseasons. I can’t imagine many guys have interviewed with seven different teams before getting their first managerial job. Congrats to Mendoza. He had to take the long road here (unlike some managers who shall remain nameless).

As for the Yankees, they now need a new bench coach in addition to a new hitting coach (Sean Casey has already said he’s not returning). Just to lay it all out, here is the coaching staff at the moment:

• Manager: Aaron Boone
• Bench coach: vacant
• Hitting coach: vacant
• Assistant hitting coaches: Casey Dykes and Brad Wilkerson
• Pitching coach: Matt Blake
• Assistant pitching coach: Desi Druschel
• First base coach: Travis Chapman
• Third base coach: Luis Rojas
• Bullpen coach: Mike Harkey

Perhaps the Yankees will move Rojas, a former manager (Mets from 2020-21), to bench coach and hire a new third base coach? I imagine we’ll hear a lot of Don Mattingly and Buck Showalter speculation over the next however many days or weeks. Either would stun me. Showalter wants to continue managing and Mattingly’s already been there, done that as Yankees bench coach.

In my dumb blogger opinion, the best candidate to replace Mendoza is Joe Espada, who is currently the Astros bench coach. He’s interviewed for several managerial jobs in the past and is said to be in the running for Houston’s job this offseason, though Jeff Bagwell has owner Jim Crane’s ear and there’s some belief he’ll convince Crane to hire Brad Ausmus, his former teammate.

Espada, 47, was a special assistant to Cashman in 2014 and the Yankees third base coach from 2015-17 before leaving for Houston. He played in the minors, managed and coached many years in the minors with the Marlins, has worked in a front office, and coached at the MLB level with high level teams for almost a decade now. Espada checks an awful lot of boxes.

The Astros passed over Espada when they replaced A.J. Hinch with Dusty Baker. If they pass over him again this offseason, perhaps he’ll say enough is enough, and look for an opportunity with another team. You don’t have to try too hard to see how “Yankees bench coach in 2024” could become “Yankees manager in 2025” with another non-World Series season.

Espada is my preferred bench coach candidate and I say that as an uninformed outsider. We’ll see which way the Yankees go (watch then bring Boone’s buddy Phil Nevin back). The Yankees need a bench coach and a hitting coach. With Hal and Cashman set to speak Tuesday, we should finally find out whether any other changes are being made as well.

(For what it’s worth, Erik Boland says James Rowson is in the mix for the hitting coach job. He worked in the farm system as a roving hitting coordinator from 2006-11 and 2014-16, and I know Aaron Judge loves him. Rowson, a local guy from Mount Vernon, spent the last few seasons as the Twins hitting coach, Marlins bench coach, and Tigers assistant hitting coach.)

2. Volpe wins Gold Glove. For the first time ever, a Yankees rookie has won a Gold Glove. Anthony Volpe was named the AL Gold Glove winner at shortstop over the weekend. He beat out Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, the other two finalists. See? The Yankees were smart to pass on all those free agent shortstops and go with the kids!

“I never really had goals or anything like that going into the season, numbers-wise,” Volpe told Bryan Hoch this summer. “But when you can put yourself in Yankees history, that’s pretty crazy.”

Volpe is the first Yankees rookie to win a Gold Glove and he’s only the second rookie shortstop to win one, joining Jeremy Peña last year. The only other Yankees shortstop to win a Gold Glove is, of course, Derek Jeter. Jeter’s defense was not as good as his five Gold Gloves would lead you to believe, but I can only care so much. No need to relitigate Jeter’s defense in the year 2023.

As for Volpe, there were questions about whether he could handle shortstop at the Major League level, mostly because his arm isn’t great, then he went out and won a Gold Glove as a rookie. That is kinda sorta what Volpe does. He gets doubted, then he proves people wrong. Volpe has been called undersized, lacking power, not good enough defensively, etc.

Volpe did not have the offensive season we all hoped he would. With any luck, he’ll take a step forward next year thanks to experience and the new hitting coach, whoever the Yankees wind up hiring. Volpe has a Gold Glove though, and he might not even be the best defensive shortstop on the roster. Oswald Peraza is damn good there too. If nothing else, the kids catch the ball.

Congrats to Volpe on his mildly historic Gold Glove. Anthony Rizzo, the only other Yankee among the Gold Glove finalists, did not win at his position. Nate Lowe is the AL Gold Glove winner at first base. Here are all the Gold Glovers. (Platinum Glove voting is open, if you’re so inclined.)

3. Narvaez added to 40-man. The Yankees announced Monday that catcher Carlos Narvaez has been added to the 40-man roster. He was scheduled to become a minor league free agent this offseason, so the Yankees had to add him to the 40-man Monday and couldn’t wait until the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline next week. Andrés Chaparro was in the same boat as Narvaez and was not put on the 40-man, so he's a free agent.

(Not sure anyone will believe me or even cares, but I added Narvaez to the 40-man roster in the upcoming Offseason Plan. The Rule 5 Draft protection section is already written. I swear I didn’t just copy the Yankees and add Narvaez.)

Narvaez, 25 later this month, reached Triple-A for the first time this year, slashing .240/.373/.387 (97 wRC+) with 10 homers in 359 plate appearances with Scranton. He set a new career high in homers each of the last three seasons and is billed as a solid defender and a good clubhouse guy. The Yankees originally signed him as an international amateur free agent way back in July 2015.

I think Ben Rortvedt will qualify for a fourth option next season, though I don’t know that for certain. This fourth option stuff is tricky. If Rortvedt doesn’t have a fourth option, then you have to figure he’ll be playing in another organization come Opening Day, in which case Narvaez will take over as the optionable third catcher. The Yankees may have also added Narvaez to the 40-man just to trade him a la Donny Sands two years ago. That’s better than losing him for nothing as a minor league free agent.

In other roster news, everyone who was placed on outright waivers last week – Matt Bowman, Franchy Cordero, Jimmy Cordero, Domingo Germán, Billy McKinney, Ryan Weber – cleared and elected free agency, as expected. Germán’s time in pinstripes is officially over. Also, the Yankees did not issue any qualifying offers prior to Monday’s deadline, because duh (seven players got a qualifying offer). By my count the Yankees have two open 40-man roster spots.

4. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Jung-Hoo Lee. The Yankees enter the offseason with a long to-do list. Longer than they’d like and maybe longer than they can reasonably address in one offseason. Near the top of the list is center field. Jasson Domínguez will miss the first few months of 2024 as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, and Estevan Florial ain’t it.

[insert quote here about the center field situation from the postmortem press conference the Yankees never bothered to hold]

Cody Bellinger is a free agent and potentially a worthy target depending how you feel about the difference between his 2023 production (very good) and ball-tracking data (weirdly bad). There’s also Kevin Kiermaier, who remains a premium defender and wasn’t a zero with the bat this past season. I suppose we shouldn’t rule out a Harrison Bader reunion either.

There’s also Kiwoon Heroes center fielder Jung-Hoo Lee, who, from a mystery box perspective, is the most interesting center field candidate. Lee turned only 25 in August and he’s been the best player in the Korea Baseball Organization the last few years, and again, he’s only 25! He may not even be in his prime yet. Back in January, the Heroes said they will post him this winter.

“The team has been giving me so much support since I was a rookie, and I was able to start dreaming about playing overseas because the team has helped me grow as a player," Lee said in a statement at the time. "First and foremost, I will concentrate on the upcoming season. I will put aside personal ambitions and try to help the team win the Korean Series."

An ankle injury effectively ended Lee’s season in July, and there was speculation he would stay in KBO another year rather than come over right after the injury, but that won’t happen. Lee was activated for a ceremonial farewell at-bat in the Heroes’ final home game (video). He’s coming to MLB. (For a guy three months out from ankle surgery, Lee got down the line pretty well.)

“Pure spectacle,” an agent told Andrew Baggarly (subs. req’d) about Lee’s farewell at-bat. “Obviously (Giants GM Pete Putila) wasn’t there to scout one at-bat. But that is what will tug at Lee’s heartstrings. He’s a superstar there. The teams that have a chance to sign him will be the ones that treat him like a star player.”

Not including Rob Refsnyder, who was born in Seoul and adopted by a California family as an infant, the Yankees have had three Korean players in their history: Ji-Man Choi, Chan-Ho Park, and Hoy-Jun Park. None held a prominent role with the Yankees or even stuck around for a full season. Korean players are a talent pool the Yankees have yet to really tap into.

The Yankees scouted Lee earlier this season. Whether that was sincere “time to dig in and really get a look at this guy” interest or merely due diligence is unknown, but the Yankees have scouted Lee. Let’s now dive in the best we can and see what Lee has to offer, and whether he makes any sense for a Yankees team that currently lacks a center fielder (and a left fielder, for that matter).

Background

Lee’s father, Jong-Beom, is a former KBO MVP and widely considered one of the best players in league history. He still holds KBO’s single-season stolen base record (84 in 1994), and his 510 steals were second on the all-time list when he retired in 2011. Jong-Beom was nicknamed “Son of the Wind” for his speed. Naturally, Jung-Hoo’s nickname is “Grandson of the Wind.”

Lee the younger became the first player to skip the Futures League (KBO’s minor league) and make the jump from high school straight to KBO. He hit .324/.395/.417 (112 wRC+) with nearly as many walks (9.6%) as strikeouts (10.8%) as an 18-year-old rookie in 2017. Not surprisingly, that earned Lee the KBO Rookie of the Year award.

More accolades followed. Lee was named Playoff MVP in 2019 – he and his father are the only father-son duo to win the award –  which is equivalent to MLB’s Championship Series MVP, and he was named KBO MVP in 2022. Lee helped the Heroes reach the Korean Series in 2019 and 2022, though the franchise is still looking for its first championship. Here are Lee’s stats:

That’s a career .340/.407/.491 (141 wRC+) line with 9.7% walks and only 7.7% strikeouts. The KBO averages this year were a .263/.339/.374 batting line with 17.7% strikeouts and 9.1% walks, for reference. Lee’s career AVG is higher than the league’s 2023 OBP. He’s also represented Korea internationally many times. Lee’s an elite performer with elite baseball bloodlines.

Offense

As you can see in the table above, power is not really Lee’s game. Those career high 23 homers in 2022 are more than his two next best home runs seasons combined, and his 2023 home run pace was more along the lines of 2020-21 than 2022. Lee’s game is getting on base and contact rates that are top of the line (and doing things like this). His KBO numbers are as good as you could possibly want.

My pal R.J. Anderson got his hands on some KBO fancy stats, and says the lefty hitting Lee “whiffed on just 9% of the swings he took overall, including only 3% of the time versus fastballs” this season. Sounds impressive! And it is. For reference, here are the lowest whiff-per-swing rates in MLB this season:

All pitches (min. 2,000 pitches seen)
1. Luis Arraez: 7.8%
2. Steven Kwan: 11.1%
3. Nico Hoerner: 12.4%
(MLB average: 25.7%)
(Jung-Hoo Lee: 9% in KBO)

Fastballs (min. 500 fastballs seen)
1. Luis Arraez: 6.5%
2. Nico Hoerner: 6.6%
3. Jeff McNeil: 6.8%
(MLB average: 20.4%)
(Jung-Hoo Lee: 3% in KBO)

Lee’s whiff rates against fastballs and all pitches are Arraez-ian, though Arraez did it against MLB pitching and Lee did it against KBO pitching. With all due respect, KBO pitching is not especially close to MLB pitching, particularly velocity-wise. According to Ted Baarda, the average KBO fastball was approximately 89 mph in 2022. That’s a soft-tosser in MLB.

(Last year FanGraphs noted Lee "faced 109 pitches of 93 mph or greater and slashed .226/.273/.419 against them." That was during Lee's MVP season in 2022. The MLB average was .255/.341/.416 against 93+ mph in 2023. But also, Lee only say 109 pitches at 93+ mph in a full season! That's a week in MLB. For real.)

Three years ago Kyle Glaser polled scouts and front office people, and the consensus was KBO falls somewhere between Double-A and Triple-A. Based on that, let’s now compare Lee’s whiff rates to Triple-A hitters in 2023:

All pitches (min. 2,000 pitches seen)
1. Nick Dunn: 13.0%
2. Justin Foscue: 17.7%
3. Alejo Lopez: 18.0%
(Triple-A average: 27.5%)
(Jung-Hoo Lee: 9% in KBO)

Fastballs (min. 500 fastballs seen)
1. Justin Foscue: 11.2%
2. Angelo Castellano: 11.6%
2. Nick Sogard: 11.9%
(Triple-A average: 22.8%)
(Jung-Hoo Lee: 3% in KBO)

The automated strike zone complicates things, and again, there’s more velocity in Triple-A than KBO (the Triple-A average four-seamer was 92.9 mph in 2023), but Lee’s contact ability was better than anyone in Triple-A this year. Significantly better. Lee has been billed as a special bat-to-ball hitter and the whiff rates are on par with that scouting report.

Of course, there is a difference between making a lot of contact and being a good hitter. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has consistently posted low strikeout rates, though he doesn’t impact the ball much, so his contact results in a lot of weak ground balls and soft line drives. The ideal hitter looks a lot like 2019-20 DJ LeMahieu. Few strikeouts and lots of hard contact.

I don’t have access to KBO exit velocity data. What we do know is Lee frequently puts the ball on the ground, particularly to the pull side. If the shift were still a thing, it would give him trouble.

Lee had a 57.5% ground ball rate the last four seasons. That is astronomical. Only one qualified MLB hitter had a ground ball rate that high this year (Tim Anderson at 61.1%), and over the last four years, only Raimel Tapia (60.6%) is at that level. When you’re putting the ball on the ground 60% of the time, your power output will be very limited.

"I talk to our analysts often and they told me my bat speed has gone up,” Lee told Yonhap News in 2020. “The exit velocity on my line drives has increased from (90 mph) last year to (96 mph) this year. I've always wanted to hit the ball hard, and I've been able to do just that this year because I listened to our data department and coaches, and adjusted my training accordingly.”

(For reference, the MLB average exit velocity on line drives was 94.0 mph in 2023. It was 93.0 mph in Triple-A.)

That was 2020, the year Lee cranked double-digit homers for the first time. Two years later he set a new career high with 23 homers. Hitting the ball hard is something he’s worked to improve. Lee is still beating the ball into the ground though, and you can only be so productive with a ground ball rate approaching 60%. Look at the MLB averages in 2023:

• Ground balls: .243 AVG and .267 SLG
• Fly balls + line drives: .399 AVG and .773 SLG

It’s possible Lee is an outlier contact freak like Ichiro Suzuki. During his heyday from 2001-11, Ichiro ran a 56.1% ground ball rate, with two seasons at or above 59%. Ichiro made it work because he was a once in a generation bat-to-ball guy. Maybe even once in a lifetime. I hate comparing players to Hall of Famers, but perhaps Lee can make it work in a similar way?

“Lee has exceptional hand-eye coordination,” Keith Law (subs. req’d) wrote in his top 50 free agents list. “... He’s strong enough for doubles power but has to muscle up so much to get to over-the-fence power that it takes him out of his usual swing and approach.”

The best Korean-born hitter in MLB history is Shin-Soo Choo (by a lot) and he had a more traditional development path. He signed with the Mariners out of high school as an international free agent and came up through the minors. Choo didn’t begin his career in KBO. Here are the two most recent highly regarded KBO hitters to make the jump to MLB:

The Padres used Kim in a utility role in 2021 and he really struggled as a part-time player. Once they put him in the lineup full-time in 2022, he began to flourish, and he was even better this year (112 wRC+). And, even while he struggled at the plate, Kim provided value with his glove. Kang came over and produced right away. There was basically no adjustment period there.

Kang and Kim were consistent 20-homer threats in KBO who had career years the season before they came over. That’s not a coincidence. They had their breakout seasons and decided to cash in. In KBO, Kim put the ball in the air much more often than Lee, though Lee struck out significantly less than Kim and Kang. They all ran league average or better walk rates.

If you accept being relegated to a utility role as a reason for Kim’s poor 2021, then I think these two are encouraging. They came over and performed well. Not at the level they did in KBO, but they were better than league average hitters, and in Kim’s case, his Gold Glove caliber defense carried over too. Kang and Kim were more or less as advertised. (Tim Britton (subs. req’d) did the research and found, on average, KBO hitters were 80% of their KBO selves in MLB.)

Everyone is different, and Kang’s and Kim’s success does not mean Lee will step into an MLB lineup and perform immediately. All Kang and Kim do is show it is possible for the best player in KBO to come to MLB, and perform well pretty much right away. Lee’s bat-to-ball ability is as good as it gets. The ground ball rate is worrisome. If he’s close to a 60% ground ball guy against KBO pitching, what happens when he’s facing MLB pitchers and all that velocity?

Defense and baserunning

Defensively, we’re at the mercy of scouting reports. Sports Info Solutions polls reporters to put together NPB and KBO defensive awards, and Lee did not get the nod in center field in 2022. That doesn’t mean he’s a poor defender. It only means the reporters who voted in the SIS poll didn’t consider Lee the best defensive center fielder in KBO in 2022.

Here’s what Law (subs. req’d) says about Lee’s glove:

He’s a capable defender in centerfield but isn’t a burner and doesn’t have huge range, so he may end up in a corner in MLB.

Here’s Baseball America (subs. req’d) from the World Baseball Classic:

Lee has the speed and athleticism to stay in center field and is playable at all three outfield positions, although his fringe-average arm strength would be stretched in right field.

And here’s MLBTR:

One evaluator told MLBTR that Lee is unlikely to stick as a center fielder, which would put more pressure on his bat.

Lee is returning from a major ankle injury and it’s possible his speed and range won’t be what it was moving forward. The reports on his defense are mixed. They indicate he’s not a shutdown defender in center field, though that doesn’t mean he can’t play the position adequately next season and beyond. I was expecting “Lee’s great in center” and that’s not what we got.

On the bases, Lee has never been much of a stolen base threat, and I have no idea how he is going first-to-third and things like that. The scouting reports suggest Lee is a premier bat-to-ball guy who will take some walks, has limited power, and is good more than great in the field and on the bases. For what it’s worth, Jon Morosi says Lee has gotten Ender Inciarte comps. Inciarte at this 2015-19 peak was a 96 wRC+/12.2 K% hitter and a defense heavy +3 WAR player.

Injury history

Lee has had two significant injuries in his career. First, he needed labrum surgery after injuring his left shoulder diving for a ball during the 2018 postseason. He had surgery Nov. 7th and the Heroes announced a six-month recovery, though Lee returned ahead of schedule, and played on Opening Day 2019. As far as I can tell, the shoulder hasn’t given him any trouble since surgery.

"I just assumed I wasn't going to suffer any major injury," Lee told Jee-Ho Lee in Feb. 2019. "Now I see the need to make plays in ways that won't cause injuries. My most important goal of 2019 is to be on the field from start to finish."

For what it’s worth, it’s unlikely the shoulder injury muted Lee’s power production. He hurt his left shoulder, his back shoulder when hitting, and the front shoulder is the power shoulder. Hitters who injure their front shoulder tend to lose power for a bit (Adrián González is a good example). There’s no real history of guys losing power after hurting their back shoulder.

And second, there’s the ankle injury this season. Specifically, Lee needed surgery to repair the “extensor retinaculum surrounding tendons in his left ankle,” whatever that is. There was no single play that caused the injury. Lee complained of discomfort one day, the Heroes sent him for tests, and they found the injury. I guess it was a wear-and-tear thing?

Contract projections

Lee hired Scott Boras earlier this year and you know Boras will want to beat Hyun-Jin Ryu’s record $36M guarantee for a Korean player. Boras also figures to want a contract that gives Lee another shot at free agency at age 28 or 29. Does that mean a three or four-year contract, or a six or seven-year contract with an opt out(s)? I’d want the latter, but who knows.

The Giants, Padres, and Tigers are among the teams most closely linked to Lee in recent weeks. Here are the various contract projections:

• The Athletic (subs. req’d): 4 years and $56M
• MLBTR: 5 years and $50M

As I get ready to schedule this post Monday night, FanGraphs has not yet released their top 50 free agents list and contract projections, so we only have those two. Four or five years at $10M to $14M a year sounds about right but is also an annoyingly wide range. That’s Avisaíl García/Chris Taylor money. It’s close to Andrew Benintendi’s contract minus one year.

I had five years and $50M with an opt out after the third or fourth year in my mind. That is kinda sorta the natural next contract level for Korean-born players. Ryu holds the guaranteed money record at $36M and Kim received four years and $28M three years ago. Lee, with his youth and accolades and bloodlines, figures to bump KBO players up to $10M a year.

How does the posting system work?

The KBO posting system is identical to the NPB posting system and Lee will have 45 days to negotiate a contract once he is posted. That is at least 7-10 days away. The best-of-seven Korean Series begin Tuesday and the Heroes won’t post Lee until that’s over. The posting fee is based on the size of the contract. Here’s the posting fee structure:

• Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of guaranteed value
• Contract worth $25M to $50M: $5M plus 17.5% on everything over $25M
• Contract worth $50M or more: $9.375M plus 15% on everything over $50M

The posting fee does not count against the luxury tax payroll, though it is a payment that has to be made right away. Give Lee a $50M contract and you have to cut the Heroes a $9.375M check. It’s a real expense. Lee turned 25 in August, so he is no longer subject to the international bonus pools. He can sign a contract of any size.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

I’m less enthusiastic about Lee now than I was coming into this exercise, mostly because that ground ball rate is scary high and the defense doesn’t seem to be highly regarded (even before factoring in the ankle injury). I still think he’s worth pursuing, though he's not longer a must have for me. Lee does have special bat-to-ball ability, and hitters with elite tools tend to be outlier performers, plus he's only 25. He's nine months younger than Florial!

At the same time, it is very hard to be a productive hitter with a ground ball rate like Lee’s, and he did that against KBO pitching. In the last three seasons only two Major Leaguers had a ground ball rate as high as Lee’s 2023 KBO ground ball rate, and they had a 75 wRC+ (Raimel Tapia in 2021) and a 60 wRC+ (Tim Anderson in 2023). His ground ball rate is extremely high.

You don’t want Lee aiming for the short porch every swing, he’s not that kinda hitter, but you do want him to get the ball over the infielders consistently. Lee can be a quality hitter with only 8-10 homers. He’ll probably need to hit a few more line drives though. Are the Yankees a team that can get those additional line drives out of Lee (or any hitter)? I have my doubts.

Lee’s upside might look like the good version of Benintendi. A batting average around .300, few strikeouts, a decent amount of walks, maybe 15 homers, and the occasional steal. That guy is a borderline All-Star in center. The downside is a sub-.350 SLG corner outfielder. Someone who shouldn’t be in the lineup unless he’s saving 20 runs with his glove and/or stealing 40 bags. Indications are Lee is not that kinda runner or defender.

There is more to Lee than what he does on the field. He will open new revenue streams for his MLB team. There will be Korean sponsors, new Korean baseball fans, etc. The Yankees have never had a high profile Korean player, but they’ve had several big name Japanese players. They know exactly how much revenue a player like this can generate. Lee’s value to a franchise will transcend what he does on the field. That absolutely factors into the decision to sign him.

Bottom line, 25-year-old center fielders with 80 contact ability (on the 20-28 scouting scale) are rare, and they’re basically never available for nothing but money. As a left-handed hitter, Lee is an especially good fit for the Yankees. There are red flags, that ground ball tendency is real, but we can get too caught up in the things a player can not do rather than focus on what he can do. Lee has an elite skill, great bloodlines, and youth. The Yankees have to at least see what he and Boras want.

(For what it’s worth, ZiPS projects Lee as a .282/.342/.412 (108 OPS+) hitter and +2.2 WAR player in 2024. Mark Canha had a 108 OPS+ with +2.2 WAR in 2023, though Canha got to that production in a much different way than Lee would.)

5. A potential Montas reunion. Late in the regular season there was speculation (not legit rumors) the Yankees could reunite with Frankie Montas on a one-year prove yourself contract. Montas missed just about the entire season with shoulder surgery, returning only to face seven batters in a meaningless Game 161. Maybe it was a show of good faith by the Yankees.

“I wanted to come here and show what they got, the type of pitcher they got,” Montas told Greg Joyce that final weekend in Kansas City. “I wasn’t able to do that last year and this year because of my surgery. But I’m looking forward to the future, hopefully it’s here.”

This offseason’s free agent class is so bad, and every time I look at it, I am more and more okay with re-signing Montas. And I hate it! The Yankees need a major vibes shift and re-signing Montas would not be that. I would be a continuation of 2022-23. Just let Montas leave, take the L on the trade, and find rotation help elsewhere. Surely the Yankees can do that, right?

“Find rotation help elsewhere” is much easier said than done, of course, and there are valid reasons to bring Montas back. And valid reasons to let him leave too. Let’s break down a potential Montas reunion pros and cons style.

Pro: Montas does offer upside. He turns 31 in January, so we’re not trying to squeeze water out of a 35-36 year old rock, and he pitched to a 3.67 ERA (3.55 FIP) with solid peripherals in 331.1 innings from 2021-22. That includes his rough stint in pinstripes. Montas with a healthy shoulder is a pretty good pitcher, and that shoulder is healthy now.

Con: We don’t know whether Montas can be that same guy after shoulder surgery. He pitched in two Triple-A rehab games and one MLB game this year, and that’s it. It’s been a long time since Montas pitched in a game with stakes, gone through a lineup a second time, or taken the ball every fifth day for several weeks at a time. The best predictor of future injury is past injury and Montas is coming off a pretty serious injury.

Pro: It’ll be a one-year contract (I seriously doubt any team will guarantee Montas multiple years so soon after shoulder surgery) which means no long-term risk. If things don’t work out, the Yankees can walk away after the season, or even release Montas during the season. It’s not often you can get a pitcher with Frankie’s track record on a one-year deal.

Con: A one-year contract is not risk-free. Releasing Montas if he pitches poorly is a fine idea, but a) you’re going to lose games if he does pitch poorly, and b) teams are never as quick to release underperforming players as fans would like. I can see it now: Montas has a 5.75 ERA on June 30th and Aaron Boone is saying, “We don’t think he’s far off.”

Pro: With a strong bounceback season, Montas could become a qualifying offer candidate, and net the Yankees a draft pick down the line. It wouldn’t be a high draft pick given their luxury tax status (it would be a pick after the fourth round), though the Yankees have had success turning mid-round picks into quality pitching prospects (Chase Hampton, Ken Waldichuk, Will Warren, etc.). They’d get another bite at the apple.

Con: Although he can be pretty good when healthy, Montas is probably not the difference-maker the Yankees need. Basically, every dollar they give Montas is a dollar they can’t give Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is six years younger and has a better chance to be an impact pitcher (because he’s younger and not coming back from major shoulder surgery).

Pro: Montas is good with young players, according to Matt Blake. “He’s a good clubhouse guy. He’s done a lot for our young guys down in Florida, really helping them along the way and teaching them to be professionals in the Tampa environment,” Blake told Gary Phillips last month. The Yankees will inevitably have young pitchers on the roster at times next year (Jhony Brito, Luis Gil, Randy Vásquez, etc.) and Montas will take care of them.

Con: Bad vibes, man. Can’t the Yankees just turn the page on the last two years? Javy Vazquez seemed like a good idea the second time too!

On paper, the Yankees have five starters for five rotation spots: Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Mike King, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt. Cole’s the only sure thing though. Cortes is coming off a pair of rotator cuff injuries, King has never started for a full season, Schmidt is coming off a career high workload, and Rodón was hurt and ineffective in 2023.

Montas would be another question mark in a rotation full of question marks. Then again, we just watched two teams with 2.5 starters each compete for the World Series. You don’t need four aces to win in October anymore. Add Montas to that non-Cole foursome and you have five guys with uncertainty, but also a good amount of upside. (And, in theory, enough depth to trade King or Schmidt in a Juan Soto package, not that a Soto trade should hinge on re-signing Montas.)

For me, re-signing Montas would be one of those “I understand it but I don’t like it” situations. To put it another way:

I’d rather the Yankees turn the page, but I understand this free agent class stinks and alternatives are lacking. The contract won’t be exorbitant ($10M? $13M?) and there are (much) worse one-year rolls of the dice in free agency this offseason. I am begrudgingly on board with a Montas reunion as long as he’s a depth addition and not THE rotation addition.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will indeed be posted for MLB teams. This was expected, but the Orix Buffaloes officially announced it over the weekend. Give it a few days for the paperwork to go through and MLB to formally declare him a free agent, then he’ll be free to sign. Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate a contract once he officially hits the market … And finally, I forgot to mention this last week: Aaron Judge won the Roberto Clemente Award. It’s a very prestigious honor given to the player who goes above and beyond in the community. Judge’s ALL RISE Foundation has all sorts of programs to help folks in the Bronx and in his California hometown. He’s the fourth Yankee to win the award, joining Ron Guidry (1984), Don Baylor (1985), and Derek Jeter (2009). MLB opened the Roberto Clemente Award to fan voting a few years ago and the most popular player on the most popular team won it, but I doubt Judge cares. It’s still a tremendous honor. Congrats to him.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)