October 24th, 2023: Rodón, Gil, Gómez, Peraza, Rortvedt

Remember the external front office audit? It hasn’t started yet. Bob Klapisch says it’ll begin after the World Series. Isn’t that cutting it close with Thanksgiving though? Then the holidays and New Years are right around the corner, and a lot of people in the industry unplug and take vacation in January. Might be better to wait for those two weeks in February before pitchers and catchers report. The offseason is off to an inspired start. Let’s get to today’s post. I apologize it’s shorter than usual, but there’s nothing going on right now, plus I’ve been plugging away at the Offseason Plan. Spoiler: Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge will be back.

1. Assessing Rodón’s season. Carlos Rodón’s first season with the Yankees was at best a disaster and at worst a catastrophic move that will hamstring the team for another five years. The Yankees gave last offseason’s free agent prize a six-year contract worth $162M and were rewarded with a 6.85 ERA (5.79 FIP) in 64.1 innings around injuries, plus a few headaches.

“I’m not going to make any excuses about starting off the season with an injury,” Rodón told Bryan Hoch last month when asked to evaluate his season. “My job is to show up and compete when I’m available. Unfortunately, that was halfway through the season. There were some okay starts sprinkled in, but mostly, it was pretty bad.”

Rodón is the latest in a string of high profile moves that just haven't worked out. Harrison Bader, Joey Gallo, Josh Donaldson, Frankie Montas, and now Rodón were brought in to be difference-makers and were anything but. The players deserve some of the blame, no doubt, but enough moves have not worked out now that the finger should be pointed at the Yankees.

Unlike Bader, Donaldson, Gallo, and Montas, we can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel with Rodón. There is no upcoming escape hatch. Those other four became free agents within two years of joining the Yankees. Rodón is signed through 2028. A trade isn’t realistic, so the Yankees have to buckle down and figure out a way to get Rodón on track next season.

With the preamble ramble out of the way, let’s dig into Rodón’s season, and try to figure out what went wrong and what can be done to make it right.

Injuries, injuries, and more injuries

The Yankees are willing to accept injury risk to get upside. Rodón is the perfect example but there’s also Montas, Giancarlo Stanton (he had plenty of injuries with the Marlins), picking up Luis Severino’s 2023 option, Jonathan Loáisiga, and even Aaron Judge. The Yankees aren’t alone. The Dodgers and Rays are also in the “we prefer 120 elite innings to 180 good innings” club.

Rodón joined the Yankees with a lengthy injury history that included shoulder surgery (2018) and Tommy John surgery (2019), plus multiple injured list stints with arm soreness. He made one Spring Training start with the Yankees before having to be shut down. Here’s a timeline of Rodón’s 2023 injuries:

• March 5th: Suffers forearm strain in first Grapefruit League start.
• April 20th: Shut down from throwing with back stiffness.
• May 5th: Received a cortisone shot for what the Yankees called a “chronic” back issue.
• July 7th: Made his Yankees debut.
• Aug. 6th: Suffered a hamstring strain in his sixth start back.
• Aug. 22nd: Returned from the hamstring injury.

A pitcher with a history of arm injuries suffering a forearm strain is worrisome, as is a back injury for any player. As I understand the word “chronic” can be scarier than what it really means, but at the end of the day, it’s an issue that could pop up from time to time. Backs usually don’t get better on their own. Ask Anthony Rizzo. He’s had on-and-off back trouble his entire career.

There is a point where there’s just nothing you can do. Pitchers get hurt, and some, like Rodón, get hurt more than others. The Yankees positively stink at keeping their players on the field and Rodón’s injury history combined with their inability to keep players healthy is a poor match. They’re stuck with each other now though. Will Rodón get healthier as he ages? Probably not. The Yankees must get better at injury prevention. They’ve had to for years now.

A decline in fastball whiffs

From 2021-22, Rodón was legitimately one of the best pitchers in the game and arguably the best left-hander in the sport. Those two seasons he threw 310.2 innings with a 2.67 ERA (2.42 FIP) and a stellar 33.9% strikeout rate. That’s the kinda strikeout rate you expect from a top flight closer. Rodón did it as a starting pitcher across two seasons.

This season Rodón’s strikeout rate cratered to 22.4%, almost exactly league average. His swinging strike rate also dipped (14.5% to 12.5%), as did his fastball whiff rate. Hitters simply did not swing through Rodón’s heater like they did the previous two years. Here are the biggest strikeout rate and fastball whiff rate declines from 2022-23:

Strikeout rate (min. 60 innings in both 2022 and 2023)
1. Andrew Heaney: -11.9% (35.5% to 23.6%)
2. Carlos Rodón: -11.0% (33.4% to 22.4%)
3. Cristian Javier: -10.0% (33.2% to 23.1%)
4. Luis Severino: -8.7% (27.7% to 18.9%)
5. Carlos Carrasco: -7.7% (23.6% to 15.8%)

Fastball whiff rate (min. 600 four-seamers in both 2022 and 2023)
1. Gerrit Cole: -6.2% (28.9% to 22.7%)
2. Carlos Rodón: -6.1% (27.9% to 21.8%)
3. Logan Gilbert: -6.0% (23.7% to 17.7%)
4. Shane Bieber: -5.8% (15.5% to 9.3%)
5. Colin Poche: -5.0% (27.0% to 22.0%)

Cole had the biggest decline in fastball whiff rate, eh? He did change his fastball usage this year, specifically using it more when ahead in the count, which could explain the decline in whiff rate. Cole also has more weapons than Rodón. Rodón is essentially a two-pitch pitcher. Has been his entire career, and he went from a top of the line fastball whiff rate to average this season.

“You can tell that this year, it’s different,” Rodón told Greg Joyce in July. “The hitters are hunting me. They’re hunting my strengths and what I do best, and they’re doing damage. I fall behind in counts, they’re sitting fastball, I throw fastball. They know that.”

The thing is, Rodón’s four-seamer still checks out analytically. Everything is in line with 2021 and 2022. Here’s his fastball the last three years (negative horizontal break just means the pitch is moving left to right, not right to left):

The top end velocity wasn’t quite there this season, though Rodón still flirted with 100 mph a few times, and his 90th percentile fastball velocity was better than average. He had plenty of velocity, and everything movement-wise was where it was last season, when his fastball whiff rate was roughly 25% higher. That suggests location issues. Rodón’s fastball location heat maps:

More heaters in the middle of the plate this season. To put it another way, Rodón had a 55.9% in-zone rate and a 47.2% edge rate with his fastball last year. This year those numbers were 55.9% and 41.5%, respectively, so he threw fastballs in the zone at the same rate as last season but hit the corners less often, which means more pitches in the middle of the plate.

“I think the consistency of the delivery is a piece of it,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Joyce last month. “Being able to command the fastball up and to the arm side, where he’s had a lot of success. Up and in to righties. Being able to land some of the breaking balls in certain areas. But there’s certain things in the lower half that we want to see on a consistent basis that we’ll kind of dive into.”

It’s encouraging Rodón’s average fastball velocity and spin and movement and all that was in line with 2021-22. The shape of the pitch seems okay. The location issues could be tied to his injuries. Either Rodón’s mechanics were off and he couldn’t control his fastball, or he was rusty after the long layoff and the starts and stops with his back. I dunno, but location was an issue.

“When we have looked at the metrics on his fastball and slider, they have been in line with where they were with San Francisco and Chicago,” Blake told Tom Verducci last month. “They’ve been in the range where they should be. That’s been reassuring. So is it a matter of command? Of being too predictable?”

Whatever the reason, Rodón’s fastball got hammered this season. The whiff rate cratered and opponents put up a .295 AVG and .550 SLG against his heater. Last year it was a .213 AVG and .358 SLG, and the year before that it was a .199 AVG and .336 SLG. Rodón went from having arguably the best fastball in the game to one of the least effective.

The home run problem

An uptick in home runs was expected. Despite a tiny 34.1% ground ball rate, Rodón managed a 0.61 HR/9 and 6.5% HR/FB rate in 2022. He played his home games in Oracle Park, one of the worst home run ballparks in baseball, and the NL West is fairly pitcher friendly outside Coors Field. The NL West is a great place to be a fly ball pitcher.

Yankee Stadium and the AL East are not. This year Rodón’s home run rate jumped to 2.10 HR/9 and 15.2% HR/FB. He allowed 15 home runs in 64.1 innings this year after allowing 12 homers in 178 innings last year. The thing is, it wasn’t just Yankee Stadium. Rodón was more homer prone on the road than in the Bronx.

• Home: 7 HR in 33.2 IP (1.87 HR/9 and 14.3% HR/FB)
• Road: 8 HR in 30.2 IP (2.35 HR/9 and 16.0% HR/FB)

Rodón allowed more contact this season and the contact he allowed was much harder. He didn’t miss many barrels this year. There were some Yankee Stadium cheapies along the way (like this one), that comes with the territory, but Rodón gave up more home runs because he deserved to give up more home runs. This wasn’t merely an Oracle Park to Yankee Stadium thing.

Rodón got squared up so much this season that he would have given up more home runs – a lot more home runs – in any ballpark. He could’ve gone back to San Francisco and he would have still been looking at a 1+ HR/9 with that contact quality allowed. That’s what concerns me. Rodón didn’t just allow more contact. He allowed more hard contact. Much, much more.

The ideal version of Rodón looks like Cole. Cole allows a lot of fly balls, but they’re typically weak fly balls, so he makes it work. That’s who Rodón was from 2021-22 and not who he was in 2023. Missing over the plate with the fastball explains the loud contact and homer trouble. Everything comes down to location. How can Rodón get back to dotting the edges and up in the zone? And if he can’t, what can he do to compensate?

What’s next?

In an effort to get things right, Rodón cut back on his slider in September, and incorporated more curveballs and changeups. He threw roughly 90% fastballs and sliders from 2021-22 and in his first two first months as a Yankee as well. In September, Rodón threw about 82% fastballs and sliders. They are still his go-to pitches, but we did see more curveballs and changeups.

“We thought maybe he was too predictable as mainly a two-pitch pitcher,” Blake told Verducci last month, following Rodón’s solid start at Fenway Park. Throwing more curveballs and changeups seems worthwhile, but they are Rodón’s third and fourth best pitches. By a lot too. Rodón will forever be a fastball and slider guy. Those two pitches have to be more effective than they were in 2023. The curveball and changeup will only help so much.

Also, Rodón needs an attitude adjustment. Blowing a kiss at heckling fans is dumb and not that big of a deal on its own, but turning you back on the pitching coach during a mound visit is something a team shouldn’t tolerate. Rodón was not disciplined – Aaron Boone said they would have considered discipline if it wasn’t so late in the season, which is impressively feckless – but that can’t happen. These are the sorta things that make a bad situation (i.e. pitching poorly) an even bigger headache and a bigger distraction. Rodón needs to get it together.

We saw a few glimpses of the dominant 2021-22 Rodón this season but only a few. The injuries are going to happen. They seem unavoidable given his career to date. The more pressing issue is Rodón pitched to a 6.85 ERA when he was healthy, and he was a pain in the ass on top of it. If he’s only a 120 innings a year guy, so be it, but those 120 innings need to be really good. One year into a six-year contract, there is a lot of work to be done here. More than you’d like for a $27M a year pitcher.

“Now that we’ve had a full year together, I think we know more about each other and what the rhythm of conversation needs to look like,” Blake told Joyce. “Obviously having some of the struggles this year, there are more things we want to stay on top of in the offseason to make sure we’re heading in on a good path to Spring Training. There’s a better rhythm to the conversation, whereas last year it was kind of an introduction of, ‘Hey, Carlos Rodón is coming on.’ Just being in touch with him. Now you know what he needs.”

2. Attempting to figure out fourth options. As is the case every year, the Yankees have several players who have exhausted their minor league options, and can not easily be sent to Triple-A next season. For out of options players, it’s the MLB roster or waivers. They have to pass through waivers to go back to the minors, like Estevan Florial this past April.

Every player gets three option years, meaning they can be sent up and down five times per year for a maximum of three years. Some players qualify for a fourth option year, however, and the rules aren’t always clear. Here’s what MLB.com’s glossary says about fourth options:

Players typically have three option years, but those who have accrued less than five full seasons (including both the Major and Minors) are eligible for a fourth if their three options have been exhausted already. For the purposes of this rule, spending at least 90 days on an active Major League or Minor League roster during a given season counts as one full season. Players also earn a full season if they spend at least 30 days on an active Major League or Minor League roster AND their active-roster and injured-list time amounts to at least 90 days in a given season.

That’s the dumbed down version. Rule 7(c) clarifies that the “spend at least 30 days on an active Major League or Minor League roster AND their active-roster and injured-list time amounts to at least 90 days in a given season” thing must happen in a specific order. The player has to spend at least 30 days on the active roster and then go on the injured list for that to apply. That ensures players who begin the season healthy, then get hurt a few weeks in, still get credit for a full year.

We know with certainty several Yankees are out of options: Florial, Albert Abreu, Jake Bauers, Franchy Cordero, Kyle Higashioka, and Billy McKinney. Some of them will get dropped from the roster over the winter, so it won’t matter anyway, but those guys are out of options. A few others should be out of the options, but might not be. They might have fourth options.

What follows is my attempt to figure out which Yankees have a fourth option for 2024. I can not guarantee I’m correct here, this stuff is tricky, but I’m going to try my best. Let’s get to it.

RHP Luis Gil

Gil was added to the 40-man roster in Nov. 2019 and he burned his three option years in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Earlier this year it was reported the Yankees were given a fourth option for Gil. It has to do with MLB and the MLBPA agreeing to not count 2020 as a full minor league season (i.e. 90 days on an active roster) for players who spent the season at the alternate site, like Gil.

So, Gil has a fourth option. He spent the entire 2023 season on the MLB 60-day injured list, collecting big league pay and service time, and thus did not use his fourth option. It is still valid for 2024, which is nice for roster flexibility purposes. The Yankees don’t have to force Gil onto their MLB roster in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery.

Now 25, Gil got into a few rehab games with Low-A Tampa in September. As far as we know, all went all well and he has completed his Tommy John surgery rehab, and Gil will be ready to go in Spring Training. I’m not sure he’ll ever throw enough strikes to be a starter, but Gil has premium stuff and can be a shutdown reliever, perhaps as soon as 2024.

RHP Yoendrys Gómez

Gómez is the Yankees’ most complicated fourth option case. The Yankees added him to the 40-man roster in Nov. 2020 even though he spent the pandemic season at home. He was optioned to the minors in 2021, 2022, and 2023, though he has spent a ton of time on the injured list over the years. Let’s do the math, starting with 2021:

• April 1st: Optioned to minors (Opening Day)
• June 2nd: Activated by Low-A Tampa after being out with a “sore arm”
• July 27th: Placed on minor league injured list with season-ending elbow injury

Gómez made his Grapefruit League debut that March 4th and then just disappeared. It was later reported he had what was described as a “sore arm,” though he was not placed on the injured list after being sent to the minors. Gómez had to be in Extended Spring Training, which as far as I know does not count toward being on an active roster, but I can’t say that for certain.

Anyway, Gómez eventually got healthy and officially joined an active roster on June 2nd. He then hurt his elbow in late July and needed the internal brace procedure, the Tommy John surgery alternative. June 2nd to July 27th is 56 days on the active roster, short of the 90 days needed for a full minor league season, and he wasn’t on an active roster to begin the season. That should mean 2021 does not count as a full season and Gómez gets a fourth option. Now here’s 2022:

• April 8th: Optioned to minors and placed on Low-A injured list (Opening Day)
• June 17th: Activated off minor league injured list and sent to High-A Hudson Valley
• Aug 31: Promoted to Double-A Somerset
• Sept. 18th: Double-A regular season ends

Gómez’s elbow surgery rehab carried over into 2022 and, after a brief rookie ball rehab stint, he was sent to High-A Hudson Valley on June 17th and activated. June 17th to Sept. 18th is 94 days on the active roster. Did the Yankees really miss the 90-day cutoff by four days? Gómez was definitely activated on June 17th. There were no minor league rehab shenanigans as far as I can tell. Gómez spent 94 days on active rosters in 2022. Hmmm.

As for 2023, Gómez was optioned to Double-A on Opening Day and placed on the injured list with a shoulder injury. He was activated on May 28th and stayed healthy the rest of the season, so Gómez spent more than 90 days on active rosters this year. If Gómez qualifies for a fourth option, it will be because of his 2021 injuries, not 2022 or 2023. And, if Gómez doesn’t qualify for a fourth option, I don’t know who will. This guy's missed a ton of time.

In all seriousness, Gómez being out of options would force a decision next year. He’s yet to play in Scranton, so he’d have to skip over Triple-A to stick on the MLB roster, and maybe that’s not a big deal. Gómez could replace Abreu as the last guy in the bullpen we all complain about. More likely, he would get moved in a minor trade this offseason. I think Gómez has a fourth option because of his 2021 injuries though. We’ll find out for sure in Spring Training.

IF Oswald Peraza

Peraza is out of options. He was added to the 40-man roster in Nov. 2020 and he was optioned down in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Other than a 10-day stint on the big league injured list with an ankle injury this past May, Peraza was healthy from 2021-23, so he spent more than enough time on active rosters to burn his options. It’s MLB or waivers for him in 2024.

What does that mean for his place with the Yankees? I’m not sure. Assuming the Yankees stick with Anthony Volpe at short (there’s no reason to think they won’t), Peraza could fill a utility role next season, or they could stick with him as the full-time third baseman. Not sure I’d love that, but it’s possible. The Yankees could also trade Gleyber Torres and open an infield spot that way.

I’m not sure what the future holds for Peraza but I am pretty confident – as confident as I can be with this stuff – he is out of options, and can’t return to Triple-A in 2024. The Yankees have to keep him on their MLB roster or put him on waivers, which they obviously will not do. It’s decision time for Peraza. Possibly even make or break time (nah, not really, but we’re getting there).

C Ben Rortvedt

A Jose Trevino/Austin Wells catching tandem seems likely next season, though we can’t rule out Wells returning to Triple-A (only 33 games there) and Trevino pairing up with Higashioka again. Either way, there’s no room in the Bronx for Rortvedt, who is a perfectly cromulent depth catcher. The kinda guy who gets shuttled up and down to fill in while the team deals with injuries.

The Twins added Rortvedt to the 40-man roster in Nov. 2020 and he used his three option years in 2021, 2022, and 2023. It sure seems like he’ll qualify for a fourth option given his injuries (and the sequencing of those injuries) in 2022. Here’s his 2022 timeline:

• April 7th: Placed on MLB 10-day injured list with oblique injury (Opening Day)
• May 7th: Begins rehab assignment
• May 18th: Pulled off rehab with a knee injury and has surgery
• July 12th: Begins rehab assignment
• Aug. 2nd: Activated off MLB injured list and optioned to Triple-A (burns option)
• Sept. 9th: Called up when Trevino went on the paternity list
• Sept. 11: Sent down after Trevino returned (option year already burned Aug. 2nd)
• Sept. 28th: Triple-A regular season ends

Rortvedt suffered the oblique injury during the lockout and the Yankees knew about it at the time of the trade. He then tore a meniscus during his oblique injury rehab assignment and needed surgery, so he was on the injured list the first four months of the season. Aug. 2nd to Sept. 28th is 57 days on active rosters. This means:

1. Rortvedt did not spend 90 days on active rosters.
2. Rortvedt began the year hurt, so he did not spend 30 days on the active roster before going on the injured list.

As far as I can tell, Rortvedt did not meet the active roster criteria in 2022, and will be given a fourth option in 2024. That’s a pretty big deal! The Yankees would get to keep him around as their optionable depth catcher next year. It’s always nice to have that shuttle-able catcher who knows the pitching staff (particularly Gerrit Cole) and can easily fill in when there’s an injury.

As for 2023, Rortvedt began the season on the MLB injured list after having surgery to treat an aneurysm in Spring Training. He also missed a little more than a week with an unknown injury in Triple-A in June. I have Rortvedt at 134 days on active rosters in 2023. If he qualifies for a fourth option, it will be because he started 2022 on the injured list and missed the first four months.

* * *

Gil reportedly has a fourth option and it looks like Gómez and Rortvedt do as well, so they can all be sent to Triple-A next year without requiring waivers. Peraza definitely does not have a fourth option. He has to stick on the MLB roster. How the Yankees handle that, I do not know, and it’s not something to worry about now. Let’s see how the offseason and Spring Training go first.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)