October 20th, 2023: Rotation Depth, Marlins, Mailbag

It has been nearly three weeks since the Yankees last played a game and we’re still waiting on someone from the organization to say something. Season’s over dudes. Maybe say something about it? Whatever man. Why do I even care. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. The rotation depth chart and pitching pipeline. This is not a good offseason to need starting pitching. I mean, there’s no such thing as a good offseason to need starting pitching, but this offseason is especially bad. The free agent market was thin to begin with, and so many of the top available starters saw their stock take a hit in 2023. Consider:

• Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch next season after elbow surgery.
• Julio Urías is certain to be suspended under the domestic violence policy.
• Aaron Nola showed worrisome declines in velocity and strikeout rate.
• Lucas Giolito was straight up bad (4.88 ERA and 5.27 FIP).
• Sonny Gray said he might retire (?!?).

Among guys at the top of the market, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell are the only MLB starters who raised their stock in 2023, and Snell led baseball in walks. How much do you trust that guy? Like really trust him? I would bet a shiny nickel more than a few teams rank Nola ahead of Snell internally (to be fair, Nola’s been great in the postseason). Yoshinobu Yamamoto is gonna get “buy an island” money this winter.

The Yankees are starting from a great position with their rotation: Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher in baseball and he makes everything okay every fifth day. The rotation behind Cole was shaky at times and that might be generous. Then again, if we take away Cole, it’s only fair that we take away the worst performers too, right? The quick numbers:

• NYY SP: 4.44 ERA and +9.8 WAR
• NYY SP minus Cole: 5.06 ERA and +2.3 WAR
• NYY SP minus Rodón and Severino: 3.96 ERA and +12.1 WAR

Take away the best pitcher and the numbers are worse. Take away the worst pitchers and the numbers are better. News at 11. Point is, the Yankees get to start their rotation with Cole, and only a few teams have comparable pitchers. The Yankees are already ahead of the game when it comes to building out next season’s starting rotation.

The rotation behind Cole is a little less certain and that’s what I want to tackle today. The current rotation outlook as well as what’s coming internally. Pitcher development has become a strength for the Yankees. At least in the minors. Things don’t always go according to plan in the Bronx. Anyway, let’s dive into the rotation depth chart.

Rotation locks: Cole and Rodón

Cole is Cole, and like it or not, Carlos Rodón will be in the rotation next year and will almost certainly start Game 2 of the regular season. The Yankees will chalk up his bad 2023 to injuries and hope a normal Spring Training gets him back on track. We caught a few glimpses of the dominant Rodón this year, but only glimpses. Not much more to say here. Onward.

Deserve a longer look: King and Schmidt

King’s late-season audition was so exciting, wasn’t it? He made nine starts total, but only the last seven were on a normal five-day routine, and in those seven starts he had a 2.02 ERA (2.41 FIP) with 31.9% strikeouts and 5.0% walks in 35.2 innings. Opponents hit .231/.277/.346 against him. Is it fair to expect King to do that across a full season? No. Did King do enough to earn a rotation spot and a longer audition in 2024? Absolutely.

Schmidt’s season was up and down. Down then up then down again, really. He started poorly, had a great summer, then limped to the finish. Slicing his season into unequal thirds:

• First 9 starts: 6.30 ERA (4.30 FIP) and 4.4 IP/G
• Middle 18 starts: 3.86 ERA (3.85 FIP) and 5.2 IP/G
• Last 5 starts: 5.11 ERA (5.38 FIP) and 4.9 IP/G

Those last five starts could be attributed to fatigue seeing how Schmidt set a new professional high in innings by 68.1 (!). He picked up a cutter in Spring Training and had trouble harnessing it early on, but, by the end of the season, it was his most used pitch. Here’s what Schmidt told David Laurila about his cutter in September:

“The reason they wanted me to add the cutter was lefties. The idea was that I could throw a fastball to lefties and be able to induce either A) weak contact or B) a swing-and-miss. That was the real reason, and then once I started throwing it we realized that my arm action was built even more for a cutter than they thought. The metrics on my cutter are really good. Analytically it became one of my best pitches, which is why they were like, ‘Why don’t we up the usage of this?’

“I started throwing it to righties as well as to lefties, and it’s really helped play up my sinker a little bit. I mean, it’s hurt my sinker in that I’m losing some [arm-side] horizontal, because I’m trying to cut the ball so much, but it’s been playing up because it’s hard for a hitter to determine if it’s going to be a cutter or a sinker.”

I answered a mailbag question last month about trading Schmidt and I’m not opposed to it, and I don’t think the Yankees are either. His value may never be higher given the season he just had, his health (i.e. he’s not hurt right now), and the poor free agent market. Schmidt also did a better job limited hard contact after that post. He’s still not good at it, but he no longer ranks near the bottom of the league in exit velocity and all that.

This much is clear: Schmidt deserves a rotation spot next season and a chance to build on what he did this year. Maybe that opportunity comes with another team after the Yankees trade him, but Schmidt deserves the chance. Until the Yankees trade him, or until they add significantly to the rotation, we should pencil Schmidt into next year’s starting five.

It’s complicated: Cortes and Germán

Complicated for very different reasons. Cortes is coming off a pair of rotator cuff injuries, and although his rehab is going well, you can never be sure with shoulder trouble. Regardless, Nestor is in next season’s rotation until his health or performance say otherwise. Going from 2022 Nestor to 2023 Nestor was one of the biggest bummers of the season.

As for Germán, gosh, who knows? The Yankees have stuck with him this long, and given the lack of quality free agent pitching, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them stick with him again next season. Remember, Germán (and Schmidt) was only in the rotation this year because Rodón and Luis Severino got hurt in Spring Training. They could bring German back as a swingman again.

There have been no updates on Germán since he left the Yankees to seek treatment for alcohol abuse. I think the Yankees are done with him but I’m not overly confident in that. Even if they keep Germán, I can’t imagine they would give him a rotation spot outright. I would expect him to be penciled into the bullpen as a long man who can make starts if necessary.

First line of depth: Brito and Vásquez

Brito the starter and Brito the reliever were two very different pitchers last season. The numbers bear that out …

• as SP: 6.32 ERA (6.33 FIP) with 16.4 K% and 9.1 BB% in 52.2 IP
• as RP: 1.43 ERA (2.51 FIP) with 24.3 K% and 5.0 BB% in 37.2 IP

… and so did the eye test. Brito was more aggressive and had better body language as a reliever. He looked more confident, and not just in the “he’s confident because he’s pitching well” way. I’m sure the Yankees will bring Brito to Spring Training as a starter. There’s no reason not to. Jhony does give off that “some guys are just made for the bullpen” vibe though.

We really didn’t see a whole lot of Vásquez this year. He made five big league starts, but never two in a row on a normal five-day schedule, and then he finished the season working multiple innings in relief because that was the best way to get him work. Vásquez’s 2.87 ERA was nice and shiny. The underlying numbers were not:

• Strikeout rate: 19.9% (MLB average: 22.7%)
• Swinging strike rate: 6.9% (MLB average: 11.2%)
• Walk rate: 10.8% (MLB average: 8.6%)
• Ground ball rate: 36.4% (MLB average: 42.5%)

Vásquez is a rookie and it was only 37.2 sporadic innings, but he has a history of not missing as many bats as the visual evaluation of his stuff would lead you to believe. It dates back to Double-A (I noted this in my top 30 prospects post). Ryan Weber, who is no one’s idea of a bat-misser, had a 7.1% swinging strike rate this year. Vásquez’s 6.9% ranked 470th among the 476 pitchers who threw at least 30 innings in 2023. Hmmm.

To me, Vásquez is a textbook “send him to Triple-A and call him up when we need a spot starter” type, not someone the Yankees should pencil into their Opening Day plans. Brito should be given every opportunity to be in next year’s bullpen. The perfect world scenario is King sticks in the rotation and Brito replaces him as the high leverage multi-inning guy. Point is, we’re now at the point on the depth chart where guys are not assured MLB roster spots.

Triple-A arms: Beeter, Spence, and Warren

Pitching coach Matt Blake mentioned Clayton Beeter and Mitch Spence by name in September when asked who was next in line to make MLB starts should a need arise. Spence spent the entire season with Triple-A Scranton and pitched well given the offensive environment. Beeter got to Triple-A in late June and had a hard time with the automatic strike zone (13.9% walks).

Beeter and Spence have to go on the 40-man roster this winter and I’m not sure Spence will get a spot. Beeter will. Spence is more up in the air. Either way, they both fall into the “we could call them up tomorrow if we need an arm” category, though having to start either guy every fifth day for an extended period of time might not go so well. A lot's probably gone wrong in that case.

Will Warren was promoted to Triple-A a few weeks before Beeter and he was so, so good down the stretch. He was the International League Pitcher of the Month in September and things clicked for him in July. To wit:

• First 11 Triple-A starts: 5.52 ERA (5.96 FIP) with 22.9 K% and 12.9 BB% (44 IP)
• Final 10 Triple-A starts: 2.10 ERA (4.04 FIP) with 27.9 K% and 9.2 BB% (55.2 IP)

“(Triple-A hitters are) very good at finding your mistake and not missing it. I think that was the biggest difference early. You could see that with (the automated strike zone). They’re trying to pull you into the middle so they can do damage,” Warren told Mark Sanchez (subs. req’d) last month. “Not being too fine and nibbling on the corners, and trusting my stuff’s better than the guy in the box, I think that’s been the biggest difference (the last) couple of weeks.”

The Yankees helped Warren add a cutter late last season and it fully took hold this year. Even after shelving his curveball, he’s still a legit five-pitch guy (four-seamer, two-seamer that’s really a one-seamer, sweeper, changeup, cutter) who can pitch east-west and north-south, and has weapons for righties and lefties. And now he’s got some Triple-A success under his belt.

If the Yankees need a spot start next season, Beeter and Spence are fine options. If the Yankees need a more permanent fill-in, someone to start every fifth day for several weeks, then Warren is the best man for the job. Ahead of Vásquez, I think. Warren has more weapons and, on top of missing more bats, he was better at limiting hard contact with the RailRiders.

Warren’s biggest obstacle may be 40-man status. He doesn’t have to go on the 40-man until next offseason, whereas Vásquez is on it right now (and Beeter will be added in a few weeks). If he’s the best pitcher for the job, then the Yankees should add Warren and pitch him, yeah, I know, but that’s simplistic. Roster spots are finite. They have to be managed carefully, and once Warren is on the 40-man, he stays on, and the Yankees lose a little flexibility.

That’s why Beeter and Vásquez figure to be first in line for a spot start and may be given the first crack at sticking in the rotation. I expect to see Warren at some point next season and I think he is the best bet to come up from the system and give the Yankees at least average innings in a starting role, if not above average innings. Warren is the next prospect arrival to look forward to.

(For what it’s worth, Warren led Triple-A in Stuff+ (what’s that?) among pitchers with at least 1,000 pitches at the level. He’s just ahead of Tyler Glasnow if you drop the minimum to 100 pitches. Spence is sixth and Vásquez is seventh on the 1,000-pitch minimum leaderboard.)

Double-A arms: Fitts, Hampton, Thorpe

Drew Thorpe, my Minor League Player of the Year and MiLB’s Prospect Pitcher of the Year, is both very good and difficult to decipher. He dominated this season, though he did it with a low-90s fastball, and pitchers with great changeups tend to manhandle hitters in the low minors. I think the perception of what Thorpe is outpaces reality, but still, he’s very good.

Anyway, Thorpe got to Double-A in August and threw only 30.1 innings at that level. He’ll head back to Somerset to begin 2024 and has a chance to move quickly. Thorpe could get to Triple-A by June, in which case we could be talking about an MLB call up in September. Then again, Thorpe is two years away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility. He runs into the same obstacle as Warren.

Chase Hampton’s trajectory aligns closely with Warren's. They were both unheralded mid-round draft picks who, after going to the pitching lab after the draft, showed up the next year with more velocity and a greatly improved breaking ball. Warren was great in eight High-A starts to begin 2022, then things didn’t come quite as easily after being promoted to Double-A.

Hampton was great in nine High-A starts to begin 2023, then things didn’t come quite as easily after a promotion to Double-A. He was good with Somerset – 4.37 ERA (3.80 FIP) with 27.4% strikeouts and 8.5% walks – but not as otherworldly as he was in High-A. Hopefully Hampton’s 2024 looks like Warren’s 2023, meaning things click right away in Double-A and he’s moved up to Triple-A a few weeks into the season.

Unlike Hampton and Thorpe, Richard Fitts spent the entire season in Double-A, and I expect him to open next season in Triple-A. He threw 152.2 innings (third most in the minors) with a 3.48 ERA (3.92 FIP) and strong strikeout (25.9%) and walk (6.8%) rates. Fitts is a definite big leaguer. He might be a reliever long-term, but he’s a big leaguer, and maybe a big leaguer as soon as 2024.

Those 152.2 innings Fitts threw this year set him up well to pitch deep into next season, and that’s not nothing. That could determine who gets called up in September. Here are the 2023 workloads of the prospects I’ve mentioned here:

• Spence: 163 IP (led the minors)
• Fitts: 152.2 IP (third in the minors)
• Thorpe: 139.1 IP
• Beeter: 131.2 IP
• Warren: 129 IP
• Hampton: 106.2 IP

Those guys all stayed healthy and racked up a ton of innings this season. That is unlikely to happen again next year. I’m not being a buzzkill. It’s just reality. Pitchers get hurt and you have to figure one or two – hopefully only one or two and not more – of these guys will miss time in 2024, and fall out of call up consideration. That’s just baseball. That’s just pitching prospects.

In this group, Fitts is the best bet to help the 2024 Yankees, though Thorpe continuing his meteoric rise and forcing the issue late in the season can not be ruled out. Hampton’s ascent figures to be a little slower, meaning he’ll get to the big leagues in 2025, a year before he has to go on the 40-man. That’s really, really good. The Yankees have a wave of arms coming, at least on paper.

Who’s trade bait?

The Yankees also had a wave of pitching prospects coming two years ago, then they gutted their Triple-A rotation at the deadline. Hayden Wesneski was traded for Scott Effross, and Luis Medina, JP Sears, and Ken Waldichuk were traded for Frankie Montas. Add in the Jordan Montgomery trade and the Yankees dealt five upper level arms at the deadline. (The effectiveness of those trades is another matter for another time.)

The 2022 deadline is a reminder not all these guys will stick around, and the Yankees internally rank some higher than others. And, frankly, the Yankees don’t miss anyone they traded. Medina’s stuff plays down because he has poor command, Waldichuk is homer prone (I noted this in last year's top 30), Wesneski has nothing to get lefties out (.411 wOBA allowed this year), and Sears is fine. The Yankees know things about their players we don’t.

I am most curious about Thorpe because, as good as he was this year, it is a low-90s fastball, and how do things go when more advanced hitters don’t chase the changeup as much? I can’t help but wonder whether the Yankees will move him while his value is at its peak, before Triple-A hitters and the automated strike zone ding him in a way Single-A hitters did not.

There’s a “pump and dump” aspect to the Yankees and their pitching prospects. They grab guys like Waldichuk and Wesneski in the middle rounds, coach them up, then trade them for established MLB players. Why can’t Hampton and/or Warren be next? The Yankees are pretty good at developing pitching prospects. It is an area of depth they have traded from repeatedly. Do not be surprised if it happens again this offseason.

* * *

Assuming the Yankees cut ties with Germán and Brito remains in the bullpen, the rotation depth chart currently looks something like this:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Carlos Rodón
3. LHP Nestor Cortes
4-5. RHP Mike King and RHP Clarke Schmidt
6. RHP Randy Vásquez
7-8. RHP Clayton Beeter and RHP Mitch Spence
9. RHP Will Warren
10. RHP Richard Fitts
11-12. RHP Chase Hampton and RHP Drew Thorpe

Squint your eyes and you can see that being one of the best rotations in baseball. Cole is Cole, Rodón and Cortes stay healthy and bounce back, King proves he’s for real, Schmidt takes a step forward, and someone like Warren performs well when called upon. You also don’t have to try real hard to see how things could crumble. There’s a lot of “ifs” in there.

Yamamoto should be the No. 1 target this offseason. Yes, the Yankees need offense (badly), but you don’t pass up 25-year-olds with elite talent. The Yankees have enough uncertainty in the 2-5 rotation spots (Rodón’s health and performance, Nestor’s health, King doing it for a full season, Schmidt’s huge workload increase) that bringing in another starter would be wise.

“I’ve always said it’s almost more fun and more of a challenge if they do sign a couple guys, and in Spring Training, (I'm) coming in and saying, ‘You’re going to realize that I’m better than what you’re  putting out there,'" King told Greg Joyce last month. “That sounds cocky, but that’s the approach you gotta have when you’re trying to get the spot you want.”

There are also enough interesting young arms that you could argue the Yankees should leave a clear path for guys like Thorpe and Warren, to which I say: no. There will always always always be room for young pitchers. And if there’s not, just wait a few weeks, and then there will be. Worst case scenario is (gasp!) you have a few surplus young pitchers to trade.

Near MLB-ready pitching prospects are an organizational strength and I get the sense the Yankees will dip into it to improve their offense this offseason. They’ve done it before and it’s an area they have some depth, and you can’t keep all these guys. Picking who to keep and who to trade isn’t easy, though I suspect the rotation depth chart will look quite a bit different than what I have laid out above come Spring Training .

2. Scouting the Trade Market: Miami Marlins lefties. It is not a top priority, but the Yankees must re-sign or replace Wandy Peralta this offseason, and I’d say replace is more likely than re-sign. Magic Wandy was a damn good Yankee, though his newfound issues with righties and control suggest it's best to go in another direction, and find a new high leverage lefty.

Unless you think the Yankees will reunite with Aroldis Chapman (no thanks) or pay big for Josh Hader (probably not the best idea), the free agent market doesn’t have much to offer. The trade market may be the best (only?) way to capably replace Peralta, and no team got more innings from lefty relievers in 2023 than the Marlins. It’s not particularly close either:

1. Marlins: 291.1 IP from LHRP
2. Rangers: 268.2 IP
3. Athletics: 234 IP
4. Giants: 214.2 IP
5. Tigers: 212 IP

Miami made headlines earlier this week when GM Kim Ng left the team and, not for nothing, that team is a bit of a mess. Their recent drafts have been terrible, they can’t develop hitters, and they already have $107.4M on the books for next year. That would be the second highest payroll in franchise history and up significantly from this year’s $92.6 million payroll.

The Marlins GM job is not especially attractive (low payroll, tough division, etc.), but there are only 30 of these jobs, so someone will take it. And whoever that someone is, they’ll have to navigate a bloated payroll (if not cut payroll) while improving the team. The Marlins went 84-78 this year and went 33-14 in one-run games. Kinda feels like a step back is coming, but I digress.

Trading from the lefty bullpen depth could help the Marlins get their payroll in order and also bring back talent. If nothing else, they have enough lefty relievers that the Yankees should give them a call, and see what’s what. Let’s dig through Miami’s bullpen southpaws.

LHP Andrew Nardi

2023 stats: 2.67 ERA (3.60 FIP), 30.8 K%, 8.9 BB%, 43.8 GB% in 57.1 IP (video)
Contract status: Pre-arb in 2024 and 2025, arb-eligible from 2026-28

The Yankees drafted 11 big leaguers in 2017 (Matt Sauer can make it 12) and Nardi is one of them. He did not sign as their 39th rounder, got drafted in the 39th round by the Nationals in 2018, then got drafted in the 16th round by the Marlins in 2019. Nardi reached the big leagues last August and stuck for good this season.

The 25-year-old Nardi is a mid-90s fastball/slider guy with unremarkable spin, yet that 30.8% strikeout rate came with some of the softest contact allowed in the big leagues. Nardi made the Statcast machine go brrr this season:

Between the performance and years of control, Nardi has the most trade value among Miami’s lefties. The Yankees typically don’t do the “trade for a reliever when his value is at its highest” thing. They usually try to find cheap guys they can coach up, but there is precedent for such a trade: Scott Effross. He was in the middle of a great season and had five years of control left when the Yankees got him last summer.

The Yankees gave up Hayden Wesneski, an MLB-ready starting pitching prospect, for Effross. Would they give up, say, Clayton Beeter for Nardi? Would the Marlins do it? Or are they looking for a bat? They need offense more than they need pitching, but they need pitching too (Sandy Alcantara just had Tommy John surgery and it’ll be hard to replace all those innings).

Nobody wants to trade prospects and we’d all rather the Yankees wave their magic bullpen wand and turn some scrap heap pickup into the next great reliever, but it’s not easy. It’s okay to pay the price to get the best player sometimes. Without doing a deep dive, Nardi strikes me as the type the Yankees might be willing to pony up to acquire.

LHP Steven Okert

2023 stats: 4.45 ERA (4.09 FIP), 29.6 K%, 9.7 BB%, 23.6 GB% in 58.2 IP (video)
Contract status: Arb-eligible from 2024-26 (projected $1.2M in 2023)

The 32-year-old Okert is the least desirable of Miami’s bullpen lefties. He was not overly effective against lefties the last two seasons (.327 wOBA allowed), he tends to give up hard contact in the air, and he spams hitters with his low-80s slider. Okert throws it about 65% of the time. He is a quintessential second lefty in the bullpen type. A Nick Ramirez replacement more than a Wandy replacement. (That means the Yankees will pick him up on the cheap and turn him into Andrew Miller 2.0, probably.)

LHP A.J. Puk

2023 stats: 3.97 ERA (3.59 FIP), 32.2 K%, 5.4 BB%, 44.2 GB% in 56.2 IP (video)
Contract status: Arb-eligible from 2024-26 (projected $1.9M in 2023)

Last offseason the Marlins traded the No. 4 pick in the 2019 draft (JJ Bleday) for the No. 6 pick in the 2016 draft (Puk), which is the kinda trade that should be exciting, but was instead a great big meh. Bleday stalled out because the Marlins can’t develop hitters and Puk’s injuries and early career control issues landed him in the bullpen full-time.

Puk, 29 in April, can not possibly be a comfortable at-bat. He’s huge (listed at 6-foot-7 and 248 lbs.), his delivery is all arms and legs, he throws very hard (mid-to-upper 90s), and he doesn’t always know where it’s going. The Marlins taught him a sweeper this season and Puk now has two pitches (fastball and sweeper) with well above average whiff rates.

The downside is a long arm injury history and a knack for high leverage meltdowns. Puk has high leverage stuff and he’s been given several opportunities to close, but things didn’t go well and he kept getting bumped back to low leverage, where he’s pitched his best. Maybe that’s a fatal flaw, maybe it’s something he can overcome down the road. I dunno.

Puk is a stathead darling and the Yankees love hard-throwers, and are willing to accept injury risk to get big upside. I could totally see them having interest in Puk. I’m not sure what three years of a good but also somewhat enigmatic reliever is worth on the trade market (not many guys like this have been traded in recent years), but yeah, Puk is a Yankees’ type, for sure.

LHP Tanner Scott

2023 stats: 2.31 ERA (2.37 FIP), 33.9 K%, 7.8 BB%, 50.9 GB% in 78 IP (video)
Contract status: Arb-eligible in 2024 (projected $5.8M)

These four lefties have some pretty big strikeout rates, huh? Here are the best lefty pitcher vs. lefty hitter strikeout rates in baseball this season (min. 50 lefties faced):

1. Tanner Scott, Marlins: 39.0 K% vs. LHB
2. A.J. Puk, Marlins: 38.2 K%
3. Taylor Rogers, Giants: 37.9 K%
4. Andrew Nardi, Marlins: 35.3 K%
6. Chasen Shreve, Tigers and Reds: 35.1 K%
7. Steven Okert, Marlins: 34.7 K%

Having four lefties who strike out lefties at such a high rate is useful when you play in a division with Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Kyle Schwarber, eh? Anyway, you may remember Scott from his time with the Orioles. He’s always thrown very hard – Scott touches 100 mph regularly – but it was not until this season that he threw strikes consistently.

Scott goes 50/50 with his upper-90s fastball and 90-ish mph slider, and both have very high spin rates. It’s premium stuff. Always has been, and now that Scott figured out how to throw strikes (for at least one season), he emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball. There’s more to life than Statcast sliders but sheesh:

Scott has one year of control and he’s projected to make close to $6M through arbitration. He is exactly the kinda player a small market team moves when they have to trim payroll. We don’t know the Marlins have to trim payroll yet, I’m just assuming they will because, well, they’re the Marlins, and they basically never spend as much as they have on the books for 2024 right now.

What does one year of a great reliever, albeit one with a hefty salary and a limited track record of being this good, fetch in a trade? There are very few recent examples. Raisel Iglesias returned Noé Ramirez in a salary dump. A year and a half of Paul Sewald brought back three spare parts. Rental David Robertson was traded for a top 10-ish team prospect at the deadline. The trade packages are all over the place.

Scott does everything the Yankees like (throw hard, miss bats, get weak contact) and there’s a chance (probably only a small one) the Marlins move him at a discount because they’re desperate to shed salary. In that case, yes, the Yankees should be all over him. If the Marlins ask for two prospects like, say, Everson Pereira and Richard Fitts, then no thanks. Either way, the Yankees have to at least call and ask about him.

* * *

The Marlins are loaded with lefty relievers, so they’re a natural trade partner for the Yankees. The Yankees would be paying top dollar for anyone other than Okert, which is not ideal, but that’s life this offseason. My preference is Scott because it’s one year and a big-ish salary, which will keep the trade cost down (in theory). And, if it goes well, the Yankees could always re-sign him. Nardi and Puk are appealing in their own ways as well.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Tonys are up for Gold Gloves. Anthony Rizzo is a finalist at first base and Anthony Volpe is a finalist at shortstop. Rizzo is up against Ryan Mountcastle and Nate Lowe. He played only 92 games at first base this season, so I assume he won’t win. Volpe is up against Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. He might actually win that. I expected DJ LeMahieu to be a finalist at utility, but nope. Mauricio Dubón, Zach McKinstry, and Taylor Walls are the utility finalists. My heart is broken. LeMahieu and Jose Trevino won Gold Gloves last year. If Rizzo or Volpe wins this year, it’ll be the first time the Yankees have a Gold Glover in back-to-back years since Mark Teixeira’s heyday from 2009-10 … The Reds re-signed backup catcher Luke Maile to a one-year contract earlier this week. He got $3.5M. If Maile got $3.5M, the Yankees should have no trouble finding a trade partner for Kyle Higashioka at his projected $2.3M arbitration salary. At the same time, the Reds no longer need a backup catcher, so there's one fewer potential suitor out there ... And finally, Oswaldo Cabrera will play winter ball. He and his older brother Leobaldo, who longtime readers may remember from DotF way back in the day (Leobaldo was part of the 2014-15 international spending spree), will play for Tiburones de La Guaira back home in Venezuela. I’m glad. Oswaldo didn’t play much this year (376 plate appearances), and, when he did play, he wasn’t good. Go get some at-bats and hopefully get on track at the plate, then carry it over into Spring Training. The various winter ball leagues either began play this week or will very soon.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

(Patreon is still being a pain with the formatting, so I put “ANSWER” in front of my answers to help break things up in case the questions aren’t showing up bold.)

Moshe asks: Where did this thing that the Yankees said Monty couldn't pitch in the postseason come from? That's not what happened. Cashman expressly said they robbed peter to pay paul, and there is no doubt that at the time of the deal, Monty was their 5th best starter, and there's a decent argument he was 6th (Taillon and Monty had near identical ERAs at the time). And it worked! Bader was great in the postseason last year and they didn't miss Monty at the time (Monty also would not have prevented them from signing Rodon).

I get we want to be critical of a regime that has made mistakes, but I make that deal again 10 out of 10. You wrote a mea culpa in December and I fall into the same camp: I didn't like the deal at the time but looking back at in the offseason, it made a ton of sense. This season did not work out, but I don't know how we look at the offensive talent on this team and say you don't trade a good but not great starter for an elite defensive center fielder with power. A trade that doesn't fully work out (and I'd say this one was 50/50) is not a bad trade. And the whole narrative around it (they didn't think he could handle the postseason) is absurd.

The more relevant issue is whether this a career year for Monty or he leveled up for coaching reasons that the Yankees were unable to help him with. The data is unclear, but Monty seems to think so. If so, that's a whiff by Blake and his team, but they've earned some leeway.

ANSWER: Brian Cashman never explicitly said Jordan Montgomery would not make the 2022 postseason rotation. It was implied at times but it was never stated plainly. I can’t find where it started but it wasn’t a direct quote, and it’s since taken on a mind of its own. The closest Cashman came to saying Montgomery was not in the postseason rotation plans was on Michael Kay’s show a few days after the trade deadline:

"It came down to playing the long game, which was propelling our mindset into October and what the roster would look like in October, and how Harrison Bader and his talents could impact our manager choices in October as compared to Montgomery.”

Immediately after the trade deadline, Cashman said, “I didn’t acquire Montas so I could move Monty … We have to wait on (Bader), we get that. But it came at the expense of a quality choice we already had.” A few weeks later he said, “We made some tough decisions and some tough recommendations … You gotta rob Peter to pay Paul sometimes.”

I did not like the trade at the time and I wrote as much, though I did wind up writing a mea culpa in December after seeing what it cost to get a center fielder last offseason (i.e. A LOT). I also doubled down in a mailbag answer in June, saying the Yankees needed Bader’s bat (and glove) more than Montgomery’s arm. Here’s part of what I wrote in December:

The Yankees were proactive, and while giving up Montgomery hurt, they were able to replace him with Frankie Montas immediately. That didn’t work out as hoped, Montas was ineffective and injured with the Yankees, but you can understand how Bader + Montas > Montgomery + prospects + being desperate for a center fielder this offseason. And yes, I’m comfortable saying the Yankees would have been desperate for a center fielder. The in-house options weren’t great.

I get Bader was never going to do what he did last postseason across a full season, but he was so bad this year it was shocking. He hit .240/.278/.365 (76 wRC+) overall and .208/.243/.267 (40 wRC+) against righties, and he hit one home run after May. Maybe we can attribute his lack of production to the Yankees’ ineffective offensive philosophy. I dunno. Maybe he’s just bad.

There are two ways to judge every move: what we know at the time and what we know now. What we knew at the time was the Yankees needed a center fielder and Montgomery was a good but not great starter. Trading a good starter for a guy in a walking boot was, at best, bad optics, but the Yankees got their center fielder, and Bader did perform last October. Give him that.

What we know now is Bader didn’t hit outside those nine games last October, was hurt in between his periods of hot hitting, and Montgomery leveled up as soon as he left the Yankees. Is this season a career year for Montgomery? I dunno. I can do a deep dive in the unlikely event the Yankees re-sign him this offseason, otherwise that monkey is in some other team’s circus.

I didn’t like the trade at the time but I understood the logic. Ultimately, this is a results-based business and that trade did not provide enough results, like too many recent moves. I’m guessing it would be easier to swallow if, say, Montas worked out, or Joey Gallo worked out, or all these other things that contributed to the Yankees going 82-80 this year didn’t happen.

Steve asks: Why did the Yankees fire Kevin Long? He’s the one that got away.

ANSWER: For the same reason most coaches get fired: they needed a scapegoat. Long began his coaching career in the Royals system before joining the Yankees in 2004. He worked in the minors from 2004-06, then was promoted to the Major League staff in 2007. Long was the hitting coach for the 2009 World Series title. He held the job from 2007-2014.

After missing the postseason in 2013, the Yankees spent a ton of money on Carlos Beltrán, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Brian McCann (while losing Robinson Canó), then missed the postseason again in 2014. They won one fewer game and scored 17 fewer runs. Long was fired after the season. For no reason in particular, here’s who led the 2014 Yankees in plate appearances:

1. Brett Gardner
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. 40-year-old Derek Jeter
4. Brian McCann
5. Mark Teixeira the year after major wrist surgery
6. 37-year-old Carlos Beltrán
7. 40-year-old Ichiro Suzuki
8. 36-year-old Brian Roberts
9. Yangervis Solarte
10. 38-year-old Alfonso Soriano

“The 2014 season, as we all know, we struggled from start to finish producing consistent runs. Kevin spoke to it at the end of the season. He tried everything. I don’t think anyone works harder,” Brian Cashman told Dan Martin after Long was fired. “... Despite turning the roster over, we still struggled on the offensive end. The one issue we couldn’t fix was the offense.”

The big complaint at the time was McCann and Teixeira became extreme pull hitters who were susceptible to the shift, as if that was a problem unique to the Yankees. The Mets hired Long a few weeks after the Yankees fired him and he was the hitting coach for their 2015 pennant. He was also hitting coach for the 2019 Nationals and 2022 (and 2023) Phillies.

Long is one of the few hitting coaches who has demonstrated a repeatable skill. He helps contact guys tap into their power. He did it with Canó and also Daniel Murphy and Howie Kendrick. More recently, Long tweaked Brandon Marsh’s stance, and he had a breakout season this year, his first full year with the Phillies. Hard to argue with Long’s resume. Four pennants with four different teams, two rings, and a whole bunch of hitters who took their game to the next level.

Hitting coaches have a very short shelf life. In January, Cody Stavenhagen (subs. req’d) found the average tenure of the 30 hitting coaches entering 2023 was 2.4 years, and 17 teams changed hitting coaches during the 2021-22 offseason. Long was scapegoated because the Yankees had an old roster and thought Ellsbury was better than he was. It is what it is.

Steven asks: I noticed looking at the AFL stats leaderboard that two of the top 20 players in AVG were former Yankees farmhands, Oliver Dunn (lost in MiLB R5 Draft) and Kevin Alcántara. That got me thinking: Of the prospects the Yankees have dealt in recent years that haven't yet reached the Majors, who would NYY regret dealing the most? Alcántara is interesting in that regard because he's a solid prospect but the Yankees have gotten a lot back for him with Anthony Rizzo, who they presumably don't bring back in 2022 and beyond w/o acquiring him in '21.

ANSWER: Alcántara is the easy answer here and maybe the only answer if we’re going to limit this to guys yet to make their MLB debut. He’s popped up in the 85-100 range on a few top 100 lists already, he reached Double-A as a 21-year-old in September, and he hit .284/.345/.465 (125 wRC+) in 435 plate appearances this year. Here’s what FanGraphs wrote about him in July:

Alcántara’s power has started to arrive, with nearly half (48%) of his contact leaving his bat at 95 mph or higher (the big league average is 39%) … There’s definitely hit tool risk here, but athletic, 6-foot-6 outfielders who can rotate like Alcántara can are rare. He is loose and fluid in the box, but there are some swing-and-miss concerns, which is standard for a hitter with levers this long. He sometimes has trouble turning on hittable fastballs and tends to pepper the right-center field gap, which is an indication he might struggle to catch up to big league heat at all. The good news is that Alcántara already has enough pop to do damage to the opposite field and will probably grow into much more as his frame continues to fill out.

Chandler Champlain (Andrew Benintendi trade) had a good season, throwing 135.1 innings with a 3.33 ERA (4.43 FIP) with 22.8% strikeouts and 7.8% walks. He’s probably going to wind up in the bullpen. Beck Way and T.J. Sikkema, the other two guys the Yankees sent to the Royals in the Benintendi trade, combined to allow 115 runs in 152 innings this season. Yeah.

For all the bad trades the Yankees have made lately, they haven’t given up many prospects they miss. Those trades are bad because the guys the Yankees acquired were ineffective, not because they gave up prospects who haunt them. Ezequiel Duran (Joey Gallo trade) was a big thing in the first half, then he hit .226/.295/.314 (68 wRC+) in the second half. Cooper Bowman (Frankie Montas trade) hit .262/.358/.425 (111 wRC+) around an injury in Double-A. Meh.

As for Dunn, the 2019 11th round pick was an organizational guy with the Yankees, getting into 108 games at four levels while playing second, short, third, and left from 2021-22. The Phillies grabbed him in the minor league Rule 5 Draft last offseason and Dunn hit .271/.396/.506 (148 wRC+) with 21 home runs in Double-A. He’s also 26 and had a 27.5% strikeout rate. Maybe he carves out a career as a bench guy. I wouldn’t sweat losing him though.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)