October 17th, 2023: Judge, Rizzo, Cortes, Trevino, Hot Stove Rumors, Bold Predictions

I think the Patreon formatting issues are a web Gmail issue. Everything looks like it should on the Patreon site and on the Gmail app, but not when I open the post email on my computer. Anyone having issues with other email services? Or am I just going crazy? This should be bold and this should be in italics. I hope to get this sorted out soon. Let’s just get to today’s post.

1. Injury updates. When the regular season ended, the Yankees had 15 players on the injured list, including eight players on the 60-day injured list. The Baseball Prospectus Injury Ledger says the Yankees were third in man-games lost to injury and first with +13.4 WARP lost to injury. The Astros were a distant second at +10.7 WARP lost. Every year with this team, I swear. Two days after the regular season ended, Aaron Boone said there were no new injuries to report, but we’ll see what happens when the Yankees hold their official end-of-season press conferences. Those occasionally bring injury news. Here’s the latest.

Judge not expected to have surgery

During the final days of the regular season, Boone reiterated Aaron Judge is not expected to require surgery on his injured toe. Judge has a torn ligament and said he was playing through pain several times after returning. The Yankees really should have shut him down once they fell out of the race to get a head start on the healing process, but what’s done is done.

“I’ve kind of felt that way for a while. I think the relief is in that it’s gone as well as it has since he’s come back,” Boone told the Associated Press about Judge not needing surgery. “The hope was that he would even improve as it’s gone along, and that’s been the case too. That’s what I’ve seen, the way he’s been able to move around the bases and things like that. I think there’s been a steady improvement the whole time and I think that’s what’s been encouraging.”

When he first returned, Judge had a noticeable limp and was not running well at all. It did appear to improve as the season went on, though he never looked 100%. Sprint speed can be helpful here. It measures a player’s top speed (his fastest one-second window, more accurately) and tells us about Judge at his fastest. Here are his sprint speeds by month (MLB average is 27 ft/s):

• April: 26.5 ft/s average (28.4 ft/s max)
• May: 27.1 ft/s average (28.8 ft/s max)
• August: 25.5 ft/s average (27.7 ft/s max)
• September: 25.8 ft/s average (28.1 ft/s max)

I’m ignoring June and July because Judge got hurt on June 3rd and returned on July 28th, so those are tiny samples. There was definitely a step back after the injury, but come September, Judge’s max sprint speed wasn’t too far behind April and May. There were more 27s in September than in August too, so yeah, Judge was running better by the end of the year.

I have a hard time trusting the Yankees with injury matters these days and my fear is we hear “Judge is fine, we’re just taking it slow early in camp out of an abundance of caution” on Day 1 of Spring Training. I’d like to think the Yankees acted with the big picture in mind seeing how their franchise player just completed Year 1 of his nine-year contract, but who knows with this team.

Long-term, I have no idea if or how the injury will affect Judge. I just know you need a strong base underneath you to hit, and healthy feet and toes are imperative. The fact Judge hit for so much power after returning (18 homers in 57 games, or a 52-homer pace) makes me feel a bit better. Fingers crossed the captain actually avoids surgery and there are no long-term effects.

Rizzo expects to have normal offseason

I am still flabbergasted Anthony Rizzo was allowed to play with post-concussion symptoms as long as he was. I know concussions are not always easy to diagnose, but Rizzo was the worst hitter in baseball those 10 weeks between the collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. and when he was finally placed on the injured list. Here are his numbers during those 10 weeks:

• AVG: .172 (203rd out of 203 players with at least 150 plate appearances)
• OBP: .271 (190th)
• SLG: .225 (203rd)
• wRC+: 44 (202nd)

Somehow no one managed to think Rizzo’s head might not be right during those 10 weeks, even after he complained of fogginess in Baltimore in late July (they kept him in the lineup another few days after that!). Good grief. Anyway, late last month Rizzo said he felt back to normal and was on the verge of being cleared to resume full-fledged baseball activities.

“I’m definitely feeling back to myself. I’m feeling a lot clearer and pretty strong,” Rizzo told Dan Martin, adding he expects to have a normal offseason. “... I don’t think I’m technically cleared yet, but I’m right on the verge of it. I feel great. Everything is good. I’m back to normal.”

Rizzo was fantastic before the collision – .304/.376/.505 (146 wRC+) in 229 plate appearances – and the Yankees badly need that guy next season. They could sign Cody Bellinger, trade for Juan Soto, watch Austin Wells become the hitter his mustache says he could be, and they’d still need Rizzo to come back strong. The offense needs that much help. Feel better soon, Tony.

Cortes throwing bullpen sessions

A pair of rotator cuff injuries limited Nestor Cortes to 12 mostly ineffective starts this season (4.97 ERA and 4.99 FIP), and he made just one start after May 30th. Cortes was also slowed by a hamstring injury in Spring Training. The good news is he started a throwing program toward the end of the regular season and recently started throwing bullpen sessions.

“I’ve been throwing bullpens. I feel good,” Nestor told Randy Miller recently. “The plan has been to throw a couple weeks after the season at home in Miami, then shut it down. I want to make sure I start my offseason program on time and then have no setbacks. I’ll probably start throwing in mid-November. I’ll have a good six-week build up, then go into bullpens. I don’t know what the Yankees want, but my goal is to be almost ready to throw two or three innings when I get to Spring Training instead of starting up. Spring Training is six weeks, but at the end of the day you always feel like you’re rushed the whole time.”

The Braves and Brewers were both dealt the worst case scenario with their injured pitchers last week. Kyle Wright and Brandon Woodruff, who were limited to 31 and 67 innings by troublesome shoulders, respectively, required surgery and will miss next season. Next year is Woodruff’s last year of team control and MLBTR projects an $11.6M salary. The Brewers will probably non-tender him now.

Wright and Woodruff are a harsh reminder that you just never know with shoulders. Both spent several months on the injured list, went through a careful build up period and rehab assignment, got back to the big leagues and pitched well, and then their shoulders acted up again. I’m glad Cortes is doing well and throwing. I’m still a little nervous given the nature of the injury though.

Trevino will begin hitting soon

Jose Trevino’s rehab from wrist surgery is going well and late last month he said he expected to begin hitting soon. For all I know, Trevino may have started hitting already. He initially hurt his wrist in Spring Training, though he played through the injury until it became too painful. Trevino last played July 17th and had surgery to repair a ligament on July 29th.

“I feel really good where I’m at. A couple of weeks, I’ll be hitting. I feel really good,” Trevino told Gary Phillips last month. “They’re doing a phenomenal job between the trainers here – they bust their butt all the time, they’re checking in with me – and then between my hand specialist in San Antonio. So it’s been a really, really good process.”

Trevino spent some time rehabbing close to home in Texas, though he was around the Yankees a bunch in September. He was an extra coach, essentially. Trevino helped with game-planning and during pitcher/catcher meetings and all that. He and Kyle Higashioka really took Wells under their wing in September. The veterans went above and behind to help the rookie.

Anyway, wrist injuries tend to sap offensive production, particularly power, but that isn’t Trevino’s game. He was excellent in the first half last year and it earned him a spot in the All-Star Game. It was also a massive outlier compared to the rest of his career.

• 2019-21: .245/.270/.366 (66 wRC+) in 511 PA
• April, May, June of 2022: .263/.313/.436 (113 wRC+) in 144 PA
• Rest of 2022: .238/.263/.356 (75 wRC+) in 209 PA
• 2023: .210/.257/.312 (58 wRC+) in 168 PA

Wells handled himself well defensively in September, much better than I expected given the scouting reports, and the bat came around too (11-for-31 with three doubles and four homers in his last eight games). A healthy Trevino would be a nice defense-first veteran backup behind the bat-first Wells next season. Either way, good news Jose’s doing well.

Miscellany

Jonathan Loáisiga’s latest elbow injury is significant enough that he would have been shut down several weeks had it happened in the middle of the season, Boone told Phillips last month. I’m not sure what that means for his availability come Spring Training. Loáisiga missed most of this season after having a bone spur removed from his elbow, though apparently this new injury is unrelated. He was shut down on Sept. 12th. Loáisiga is so, so good when healthy. He’s just hurt for weeks at a time every single year … Trystan Vrieling, my No. 21 prospect, faced six batters (by design) in his Arizona Fall League debut this past weekend. He missed the entire regular season with an unspecified elbow injury, though now we know the specifics: Vrieling had a fracture, he told Jesse Borek. So there you go. No ligament or soft tissue damage. Vrieling also said the big leaguers who rehabbed alongside him in Tampa were very helpful. I assume that means Scott Effross, Frankie Montas, and Lou Trivino (pitching coach Matt Blake praised Montas for taking care of the kids) … And finally, there is no update on Jasson Domínguez’s Tommy John surgery rehab because there’s nothing to update yet. It’s early in the process and, as of last week, Domínguez was still in the big mechanical brace to limit range of motion. El Marciano had surgery Sept. 20th and six weeks out is typically when they begin elbow strengthening exercises, so figure that’s still two weeks away.

2. Latest hot stove news. October is really boring when the Yankees miss the postseason, isn't it? They haven’t even bothered to hold their end-of-season press conferences yet. At least that would give us something to talk about. Anyway, here are a few scattered hot stove nuggets.

Middleton hopes to re-sign with Yankees

Keynan Middleton, who pitched well after coming over at the trade deadline, hopes to re-sign with the Yankees. “Honestly, there’s not too many other places I’m looking at. After being here, I don’t know why you wouldn’t want to be here. If it ends up working out, I’d love to come back here. But we’ll see what happens,” he told Greg Joyce (subs. req’d) recently.

Middleton, 30, had a 3.38 ERA (4.20 FIP) in 50.2 innings with the White Sox and Yankees this season. He allowed three runs and struck out 17 in 14.1 innings with the Yankees, and two of the three runs came in his final appearance, when he returned from his shoulder injury without a rehab assignment and looked rusty. There’s good and bad among the peripherals:

• Strikeout rate: 30.2% (good)
• Walk rate: 10.8% (bad)
• Ground ball rate: 56.6% (good)
• Home run rate: 1.42 (bad)
• Average exit velo: 85.3 mph (good)
• wOBA vs. RHB: .321 (bad) (more like average-ish)
• wOBA vs. LHB: .260 (good)

Pairing that home run rate with that ground ball rate is something else. Nearly one out of every four fly balls Middleton allowed left the park. His 23.5% HR/FB rate in 2023 was far above his 11.5% career rate entering the season. Yankee Stadium is a home run ballpark, though there is reason to believe Middleton’s homer rate will come back to Earth next season.

Even before the Yankees acquired him, I noted Middleton made changes to his pitch mix with the White Sox, specifically using his very good changeup more often. That suggested his newfound success wasn’t a fluke. The Yankees actually cut back on his changeup usage a bit, and helped him add a little more sweep to his slider. Either way, Middleton was legit good.

“The first day I got here, we tweaked some pitch grips,” Middleton told Joyce (subs. req'd). “We went through some metrics I’ve never seen before, and I feel like that gave me the confidence to just go out there and do my thing and not worry so much.”

Middleton had to settle for a minor league contract each of the last two offseasons and he’s never made $1M in a season. After the season he just had, and given the typical middle reliever shelf life, this is very likely his best chance at a nice free agent payday. Middleton would like to re-sign with the Yankees. Enough to pass up a larger offer elsewhere? Eh, I doubt it, and I wouldn't advise it either.

Here’s what a few relievers similar to Middleton (journeymen types with an injury history coming off a strong year) received the last two offseasons:

• Brad Boxberger, Cubs: 1 year and $2.8M
• Luis García, Padres: 2 years and $7M
• Trevor Gott, Mariners: 1 year and $1.2M
• Shelby Miller, Dodgers: 1 year and $1.5M

Boxberger and García are most relevant to Middleton because they spent their entire contract year in the big leagues and pitched at a similar level, though they signed their deals when they were several years older than Middleton is now. Does the García contract work? Two years at $3.5M a pop? I like Middleton, though I’m not sure I’d go much higher than that. If they can work a deal out, great. If not, the Yankees will fill out their bullpen some other way.

“I learned a lot and I loved it,” Middleton told Joyce (subs. req’d) about his time with the Yankees. “Before I even got drafted, (Giancarlo) Stanton was one of my favorite baseball players. Being able to play with him was cool. I didn’t know too much about (Aaron) Judge, but getting to know him, he became easily one of my favorite players. There’s other guys around here – Gerrit Cole, Clay Holmes, Michael King – it’s just pure greatness. Being around these guys and being able to learn from them has been huge for me.”

Matsui exploring move to MLB

Yuki Matsui, not Hideki. Yuki, the longtime star closer of the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan, exercised his international free agency rights and will explore a move to MLB. The Golden Eagles are said to be ready to offer a four-year contract worth approximately $11M, so Matsui may stay in Japan, but he will see what MLB teams have to say.

Although he turns only 28 later this month, Matsui already has 10 years of service time in Japan, so he’s a true free agent. He doesn’t have to be posted. The left-hander had a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in 57.1 innings this year. That’s in a league with a 19.2% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate. Those numbers are in line with Matsui’s career averages.

"A lot of teams like him, and so the time (to come to MLB) is now,” a scout told the Kyodo News prior to the World Baseball Classic (Matsui appeared in one WBC game). “He's an unusual pitcher and that works in his favor. He's been a dominant closer in Japan but it will be interesting if his pitches will play against MLB hitters. The fastball is a concern.”

Matsui is listed at 5-foot-9 and 163 lbs., so he’s undersized, and he comes almost straight over the top. Here’s some video and here is FanGraphs’ scouting report:

Matsui has viable big league relief stuff, sitting 92-94 mph with flat angle and carry thanks to his height and vertical arm slot. He also has a plus, upper-80s splitter and a late-moving slider. He's one of the more successful young closers in Japan and posted the second-highest swinging strike rate in NPB in 2022 … (Because of) his 40-grade arm strength, he might not be sought after enough to make a move (to MLB).

Other than Koji Uehara, who was a starter before shifting to the bullpen in his second MLB season, the most effective Japanese relievers have been guys who came over with little fanfare (Hideki Okajima, Akinori Otsuka, Takashi Saito). Here are the most recent MLB contracts for free agent Japanese relievers:

• Yoshihisa Hirano, Diamondbacks: 2 years and $6M (age 34)
• Hirokazu Sawamura, Red Sox: 2 years and $3M (age 33)
• Shun Yamaguchi, Blue Jays: 2 years, $6.35M (age 32)

Matsui is still so young and it sounds like he’s willing to stay in Japan. Would he take a one-year contract? Or maybe two years with an opt out? Something that allows him to cash in big next offseason if things go well, and also return to Japan if they don’t? I dunno. Even the best Japanese relievers don’t get huge contracts when they first come to MLB though.

Wandy Peralta is a free agent and the Yankees have little lefty bullpen depth. It’s Matt Krook, Anthony Misiewicz, and Nick Ramirez. Misiewicz is interesting in a Lucas Luetge kinda way, but I’m not comfortable with any of those dudes as the high leverage lefty. The Yankees have to re-sign or replace Wandy this winter. The top free agent lefty relievers by 2023 WAR:

1. Aroldis Chapman: +1.8 WAR
2. Josh Hader: +1.7 WAR
3. Brent Suter: +1.3 WAR
4. Will Smith: +1.1 WAR
5. Scott Alexander: +0.7 WAR

A Chapman reunion ain’t happening and I can’t see the Yankees meeting Hader’s asking price, which I assume is in the Edwin Díaz neighborhood (five years and $102M). Everyone else falls into the “could be great, could get DFA’d by June” category. Point is, the Yankees need a lefty, and another one just hit the market. (Maybe Masahiro Tanaka, Matsui's teammate with the Golden Eagles, will put in a good word for the Yankees.)

Yankees have scouted Rodriguez

The Yankees were among the teams to scout Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez during his recent showcase in the Dominican Republic, according to Francys Romero. I mentioned Rodriguez back in April, when it was first reported he was trying to get out of his contract with the Chunichi Dragons in Japan. He ultimately sat out the season. Chunichi released him two weeks ago.

Rodriguez, 27 in March, has been one of the top setup men in Japan the last few years. He had a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate in 54.2 innings in 2022, the last time he pitched for the Dragons. Rodriguez served as Cuba’s No. 1 starter in the World Baseball Classic and pitched well in his two starts: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 6 BB, 10 K while on WBC pitch limits. Here’s video.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Rodriguez the No. 8 prospect not under contract with an MLB team in the WBC. Here’s their scouting report:

Rodriguez was a soft-tossing righthanded starter with an 87-90 mph fastball in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, but his stuff has ticked up dramatically since he moved to Japan in 2020. He’s settled in as a top setup man for Chunichi and posted a career-best 1.48 ERA in 56 appearances last season. Rodriguez’s four-seam fastball velocity has increased markedly and now sits 93-96 mph and touches 98 in relief. He also has a two-seamer that runs in on batters and a hard slider with vertical bite that flashes average. Rodriguez only learned how to throw a splitter last year and is still gaining a feel for the pitch, but it’s usable and has a chance to improve the more comfortable he gets throwing it. Rodriguez’s delivery and arm action are slightly effortful and his control is fringy, but his growing arsenal and history of starting have some teams interested in him as a potential fifth starter. He continues to get better every year and is trending up.

Limited WBC Statcast data indicates Rodriguez has top of the line spin on both his fastball and slider. If he can’t hack it as a starter, it seems like he has the stuff to be a bat-misser out of the bullpen. Rodriguez sat out this season and that creates some uncertainty, though teams have so much pitch data these days that it might not hurt his market much, if it all.

I’m not sure what an appropriate contract for Rodriguez looks like. The Reds gave Raisel Iglesias seven years and $27M in 2014, but that was a decade ago, and Iglesias then was three years younger than Rodriguez is now. The Yankees have not signed a Cuban player to a Major League contract since Jose Contreras. This isn’t a market they usually dabble in.

Yankees will probably sign Vilorio

The 2024 international signing period opens Jan. 15th and MLB.com recently released their top 50 prospects list. They no longer say where each player is expected to sign though. Seems the league’s media arm finally realized it shouldn’t report on early contract agreements that are against the rules.

Anyway, something tells me the Yankees will sign Dominican OF Francisco Vilorio, MLB.com’s No. 15 prospect, when the signing period opens. Call it a hunch.

Not exactly subtle, eh? MLB.com won’t list where the player will sign, but they will post photos of the kid in the team’s garb. No. 1 prospect Leo De Vries is going to the Padres, No. 2 prospect Paulino Santana is going to the Rangers, No. 3 prospect Jose Perdomo is going to the Braves, on and on you can go through the pictures and the top 50 list.

Here is MLB.com’s scouting report on the soon-to-be 17-year-old Vilorio (here’s video):

Vilorio is a tall, projectable outfielder with power potential and the ability to impact the game in various ways. The athletic teen has a solid bat tool and has a chance to hit for average and power in the future. He already shows emerging raw power and more strength should come as his body matures … Overall, he projects to be a middle-of-the-order bat and an offensive threat if he continues to develop at the expected pace. His offensive potential makes him valuable, but he’s also improving on the other side of the ball. On defense, Vilorio is toolsy enough to start in center field and just might stay there. There’s also a chance he outgrows the position and moves to a corner spot … Currently, he shows the arm strength and the bat tool to profile as a right fielder, which bodes well for the team that signs him.

The Yankees have a $4.6522M bonus pool, according to Carlos Collazo. Teams can acquire an additional 60% of their bonus pool, so the Yankees can max out at $7.45952M. The Yankees didn’t make any bonus pool trades last year as far as I know, but they’ve done it in the past, so they could do it again. (They forfeited $1M to sign Carlos Rodón, remember.)

Three times in the last four signing periods the Yankees gave almost their entire bonus pool to one player: Jasson Domínguez in 2019, Roderick Arias in 2022, and Brando Mayea in 2023. The 2020 signing period got pushed back into 2021 and the Yankees spread the money around that year, most notably landing LHP Henry Lalane and IF Keiner Delgado.

Both approaches – one big signing vs. spreading the money around – have their advantages and disadvantages, but if you want one of the best prospects in the class, you’re gonna have to give him $4M+. That’s just the market these days. Based on the little I know about Viloria, it seems the Yankees are going with the spread the money around approach next signing period.

(Just to cover every base: Matsui and Rodriguez are not subject to their international bonus pool. The age cutoff is 25 and they’re both over it.)

3. Reviewing my 2023 bold predictions. All things considered, this was not a wild and wacky season that brought many surprising moments. Domingo Germán threw a perfect game, Isiah Kiner-Falefa stole home, and Jasson Domínguez went deep on his first swing as a big leaguer (against Justin Verlander, no less). That’s really it? Nothing that would have sounded ridiculous in a bold predictions post.

As I’ve done every season since 2017, I cobbled together bold predictions for the 2023 Yankees just before Opening Day. Some were educated guesses and others I pulled out of thin air. I laid out 10 bold predictions and got a few right this year. Last year I went 5-for-10 after going 1-for-20 combined from 2018-21. Let’s review my 2023 bold predictions, shall we?

1. Judge will cut his strikeout rate to 22%

Swing and a miss right out of the gate, no pun intended. Judge finished the season with a 28.4% strikeout rate, his highest since 31.5% in 2019. I thought maybe I would be able to blame the toe injury, but nope. Here are the before and after strikeout rates:

• Before the injury: 29.6% in 213 PA
• After returning: 27.3% in 245 PA

I based this bold predictions on two things. One, Judge cut his strikeout rate from 31.5% in 2019 to 28.1% in 2020 to 25.0% in 2021. It stayed at 25.1% in 2022. I was betting on another big year-to-year improvement like 2020 to 2021. And two, Judge picked up a no-stride two-strike approach from Paul Goldschmidt over the winter, and the early returns in Spring Training were promising.

As is the case with so many Spring Training adjustments, it didn’t last. Judge struck out 12 times in his first 31 plate appearances (38.7%) and dropped the no-stride approach. It was gone less than two weeks into the regular season. Kinda funny how guys will spend all winter and all spring working on something, then give up on it completely so early in the regular season.

“I kind of thought maybe I’d use the no-stride a little bit more with that two-strike approach,” he said at the time. “We’ll keep the (mental) approach, but some of the mechanical adjustments I was trying to make with that, we kind of scratched that. Still a lot of improvement I can make on that. Still striking out a couple too many times, but we’re eight, nine games in. We’ll get it down.”

With any luck Judge will get back down to a 25% strikeout rate next year, though I would accept a 29% strikeout rate if it means avoiding injury. I’m not convinced the Yankees would’ve made the postseason had Judge not crashed into the Dodger Stadium fence, but it definitely took the wind out of their sails. The Judge-less offense was so, so bad.

2. Three Yankees will have 10+ saves

This is one of those “what was I thinking?” bold predictions. I bought into Aaron Boone saying he intended to mix and match in the late innings rather than have a dedicated closer. I figured there was a path to Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Mike King, and Wandy Peralta each winding up with a good number of saves. Instead, Holmes was the closer all year. The saves leaderboard:

1. Clay Holmes: 24
2. Mike King: 6
3. Wandy Peralta: 4
4. Ian Hamilton: 2
5. Tommy Kahnle: 2
6. Ron Marinaccio: 2
7. Jhony Brito: 1
8. Deivi García: 1
9. Nick Ramirez: 1
10. Ryan Weber: 1

Uh, what I really meant is 10+ Yankees would have a save! Not buying it? Okay then. Ten players with a save isn’t even a franchise record. The record is 12 set last year. The Dodgers and Red Sox each had 11 different players record a save this season, the most in baseball. The 2021 Mariners are the last team with three pitchers with 10+ saves each.

Brito and García picked up their saves by throwing the final three innings in a blowout. Ramirez’s save came in the RailRiders game at Fenway Park. Webdog’s save was a legit save. He got the last three outs with the automatic runner at second base in extra innings in Cincinnati. The other non-Holmes guys picked up stray saves throughout the summer. I’m 0-for-2.

3. The Yankees will still 150 bases

My most laugh out loud incorrect bold prediction, maybe of all-time. I thought the new rules combined with adding youthful legs to the lineup would lead to an uptick in stolen bases. It did not. The Yankees somehow managed to steal fewer bases in 2023 (100) than 2022 (102). Good job, good effort. Here’s where the Yankees ranked in various stolen base categories:

• Stolen bases: 100 (21st in MLB)
• SB attempts: 130 (22nd)
• SB success rate: 76.9% (26th; MLB average: 80.1%)
• SB attempt rate: 6.4% (15th; MLB average: 6.5%)

When the Yankees had a stolen base opportunity (i.e. the next base was open), they attempted to steal at a league average rate. But, because of their team .304 OBP, the Yankees didn’t have many opportunities. And, when they did run, they had a low success rate. The Yankees were not the worst stolen base team in baseball this season, but they were close.

Anthony Volpe led the Yankees with 24 steals in 29 attempts, though his stolen base success tailed off as the season progressed. Harrison Bader was the team’s most efficient basestealer at 17-for-19 (89%). Kiner-Falefa went 14-for-19 (74%) and Gleyber Torres went 13-for-19 (68%). No other Yankee attempted even 10 stolen bases this season.

Thanks to the new rules (larger bases, limit on disengagements, etc.), stolen bases shot up significantly this year. MLB had 3,503 steals at an 80.2% success rate in 2023. Last season, those numbers were 2,486 and 75.4%. Stolen bases increased approximately 40% league-wide and yet the Yankees managed to steal two fewer bases than last season. Good grief.

This really drives home just how poorly equipped the current roster is for the modern game. MLB changed the rules to promote more action on the bases and the Yankees lacked the personnel to take advantage. Three bold predictions in, I am 0-for-3.

4. Cabrera will play seven different positions

Nailed it! And all it took was the Yankees botching the trade deadline so badly that they put Bader on waivers to dump salary, and had to play a man short the day he got claimed. Here is Oswaldo Cabrera’s defensive workload:

• LF: 325 innings
• RF: 263.1 innings
• 3B: 112.1 innings
• SS: 39 innings
• 2B: 30 innings
• 1B: 1 inning
• CF: 0.2 innings

Count ‘em up, that’s seven different positions. This is my first correct bold prediction, so I’m 1-for-4. Cabrera is the fourth player in franchise history to appear in at least one game at every position other than pitcher and catcher in a single season, joining Wid Conroy (1905), George Moriarty (1907), and Clay Bellinger (2000). What a collection of names.

Oswaldo got his inning at first base on April 30th. He started in right field and DJ LeMahieu started at first base, the Yankees got blown out 15-4 by the Rangers, and Boone got LeMahieu off his feet in the bottom of the eighth inning. Cabrera shifted to first base and Willie Calhoun came off the bench and went to right field. That’s how Cabrera got his inning at first base.

As for center field, that happened on Aug. 31st. The Reds claimed Bader that morning and the Yankees played with a 25-man roster that afternoon. Cabrera started at third base, Kiner-Falefa started in center field, and Jake Bauers started in right field. Here’s how it went down:

• 8th inning: Oswald Peraza pinch-hit for Bauers against lefty Tyler Holton. Peraza stayed in and played third base with Cabrera shifting to right.
• Top of 10th: Judge pinch-hit for Kiner-Falefa, then stayed in the game and played his usual right field. Cabrera shifted to center.
• Bottom of 10th: The Yankees got walked off with two outs (remember this?), hence Cabrera’s 0.2 innings in center.

Seven innings at third base, two innings in right field, and two-thirds of an inning in center. That’s how Cabrera’s day went. Hey, whatever it takes. Cabrera played seven different positions – the seven positions I specified in my bold predictions – and that’s a win for me.

Also, allow me to quickly point out Kiner-Falefa also played seven different positions this season. He played all three outfield spots, the three non-first base infield positions, and he also pitched (four times!). That wasn’t in my bold predictions. I just wanted to give Kiner-Falefa props for moving around as much as he did this year.

5. Volpe will hit for the cycle

I went oddly specific with this one and said Volpe will do it on Wednesday, June 7th, against the White Sox. It would have been the first regular season cycle at the new Yankee Stadium. Volpe did not get a hit that day. No Yankees did. Neither did any White Sox. June 7th was the game that got postponed because of poor air quality stemming from the wildfires in Canada.

The game was made up as part of a single admission doubleheader the next day, June 8th. The first game was the makeup game and no, Volpe did not hit for the cycle. He didn’t even start the game. Cabrera started at short and Volpe eventually pinch-ran for Josh Donaldson in the ninth inning of a one-run game. He did not get an at-bat, then he went 0-for-3 in the second game of the doubleheader.

The Yankees have not had a cycle since Melky Cabrera did it against the ChiSox on Aug. 2nd, 2009. Twenty-four of the other 29 teams have had a cycle since then. Only the Royals (George Brett in 1980), Cubs (Mark Grace in 1993), Tigers (Carlos Guillen in 2006), Athletics (Mark Ellis in 2007), and Mariners (Adrián Beltré in 2008) have longer cycle droughts. I’m 1-for-5.

6. Abreu becomes the next great Yankees reliever

Nope. Albert Abreu certainly doesn’t lack stuff, and I rolled the bold prediction dice on his much improved strike-throwing ability after rejoining the Yankees last season. It didn’t stick and he finished the season with 13.1% walk rate in 59 innings, not to mention a 4.73 ERA (5.26 FIP). Even the strikeouts (22.8%) and grounders (46.1%) were meh.

Abreu’s numbers took a beating in the second half. He was sitting on a 2.87 ERA (4.00 FIP) through 37.2 innings on July 5th, which is plenty good enough for a last guy in the bullpen type, then he allowed 20 runs in his final 21.1 innings. Abreu finished the season on the injured list with a hamstring injury and did not pitch after Sept. 7th. He’s a non-tender candidate.

The correct answer to this season’s “so and so becomes the next great Yankees reliever” bold prediction – there’s always a correct answer with this team, every single year – is Ian Hamilton. Hamilton went from non-roster invitee to a 2.64 ERA (2.82 FIP) with strong strikeout (28.9%) and ground ball (55.3%) rates in 58 innings around a pair of groin injuries. I’m 1-for-6.

7. Torres will be traded for an outfielder

I could have gone with “the Yankees will trade for an outfielder” without giving specifics and I still would have been wrong. Well, no, that’s not true. They picked up Greg Allen in a cash trade. Here is a complete recap of the Yankees’ trade activity in the 2023 calendar year:

• March 30th: Acquired Colten Brewer from Rays for cash.
• May 19th: Acquired Allen from Red Sox for cash.
• Aug. 31st: Acquired Keynan Middleton from White Sox for Juan Carela.
• Aug. 31st: Acquired Spencer Howard from Rangers for cash.

Inspired stuff. The front office really put their best foot forward this season. Regarding my bold prediction, the Yankees didn’t trade for an everyday outfielder – I specified an MLB outfielder who would step into the lineup immediately in the bold predictions post – and they certainly didn’t trade Gleyber. I’ve hit on one of seven bold predictions so far.

8. The Yankees will not have a top 10 offense

In hindsight, this wasn’t bold enough. I should have gone with “the Yankees will have a bottom 10 offense.” Here’s where they ranked in the important offensive categories:

• AVG: .227 (29th in MLB)
• OBP: .304 (27th)
• SLG: .397 (22nd)
• HR: 219 (9th)
• wRC+: 94 (20th)
• Runs: 673 (25th)

The Yankees hit a good amount of home runs. Not a ton, but an above average amount. That’s the only thing they did remotely well offensively. They ranked near the bottom of the league in everything else, so I nailed this bold prediction. I’m 2-for-8 thus far.

I will say that, while I wasn’t overly optimistic about the offense coming into the season, it was worse than I expected. I figured they would be closer to 15th in wRC+ and runs scored, not in the 20s. I thought the Yankees had a middle of the pack offense, not one the worst in baseball. They have so much work to do. More than might be possible in one offseason, really.

9. The Yankees will use 17 different starters

Remember what the rotation looked like coming out of Spring Training? Carlos Rodón was hurt, Luis Severino was hurt, and Nestor Cortes was a question mark because he hurt his hamstring early in camp. Severino got hurt in late March and the Yankees didn’t have time to rearrange their rotation, so Clarke Schmidt had to start the second game of the regular season.

The rotation was already a mess, and I figured between spot starters and openers, and the injured guys coming back, the Yankees would get to 17 different starters. It’s a big number but not unprecedented. The franchise record is 18 in 1946 and eight teams – eight! – used at least 17 starters in 2023, including the 100-win Dodgers and 99-win Rays.

The Yankees used 12 different starters this season, matching their average from 2014-22 (not including the 2020 pandemic season). Here’s the games started leaderboard:

1. Gerrit Cole: 33
2. Clarke Schmidt: 32
3. Domingo Germán: 19
4. Luis Severino: 18
5. Carlos Rodón: 14
6. Jhony Brito: 13
7. Nestor Cortes: 12
8. Mike King: 9
9. Randy Vásquez: 5
10. Ian Hamilton: 3
11: Luke Weaver: 3
12. Jimmy Cordero: 1

This season was the first time since 2014 the Yankees had only two pitchers make 20+ starts (again, not including 2020). Hiroki Kuroda (32) and Masahiro Tanaka (20) led the Yankees in starts in 2014. David Phelps was third with 17. The Yankees had at least four pitchers make 20+ starts every year from 2015-22 minus 2020 (duh) and 2021 (three).

I’m now 2-for-9 with my bold predictions and this is one I’m happy to get wrong. A constant revolving door of starting pitchers and openers and bullpen games is no fun to watch, plus it usually means the team is performing poorly. Now, for the last bold prediction …

10. Domínguez finishes 2023 as a top five prospect in baseball

Was Domínguez’s first swing homer the highlight of the season? It’s certainly up there along with Cole’s final start shutout and Germán’s perfect game. El Marciano hit .258/.303/.677 (162 wRC+) with four homers in eight big league games before his elbow blew out. What an absolute kick to the groin that was. Other than Cole, we couldn’t have anything nice in 2023.

As for Domínguez finishing as a top five prospect, the answer is no. Here’s where he finished in the various end-of-season top 100 lists:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 55
• FanGraphs: No. 32
• MLB.com: No. 74

Domínguez probably would have been a few spots higher without the elbow injury, but not high enough to jump into the top five, so I’m taking the L here. I went 2-for-10 in my bold predictions. That makes me a .200 hitter. I’d fit right in with the 2023 Yankees.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Kim Ng is out as Marlins GM and it was her decision. She declined her half of a mutual option and the team is moving in another direction. Last month I listed Ng, who has a history with the Yankees, as a possible candidate to replace Brian Cashman, but it doesn’t sound like Cashman is going anywhere, so why am I even bothering? Just figured I’d circle back and mention this. The Red Sox need a top baseball operations person, and the Mets need someone to replace former GM Billy Eppler. Ng could land there, or she could go back to the commissioner’s office … And finally, baseball (and softball) is returning to the 2028 Olympics. Baseball was not played during the 2012 and 2016 Olympics, it returned in 2020 on what amounted to a trial basis, and they’re bringing it back in 2028. International baseball connoisseur Shawn Spradling hears MLB players may be allowed to participate in the next Olympics. In the past, only amateurs and non-40-man roster players were allowed to be on Olympic rosters. Olympic participation would have to be outlined in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement come 2026, but it sounds like it is being considered. The 2028 Olympics will be in Los Angeles, so travel and all that would be a piece of cake. The real question is would MLB shut down for two weeks at midseason? We’ll see. 2028 is a long ways away. That will be Gerrit Cole’s age 37 season and Aaron Judge’s age 36 season. Still, there are rumblings about MLB players in the Olympics. I'm sure we'll hear more about this in the coming years.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)