October 13th, 2023: Stanton, Florial, Front Office, Mailbag

Thank you for hanging in there while I get my bearings following this annoying Patreon update. I’m going to use today’s intro to conduct a brief experiment:

This text was copied over from Google docs and should be bold.
This text was edited in Patreon and should be bold.

This text was copied over from Google docs and should be in italics.
This text was edited in Patreon and should be in italics.

Hopefully that works and I can go back to copying over from Google docs without having to format every piece of bold or italicized text in Patreon afterward. It’s too late in the game to switch to Substack, so I really need to iron this all out. Thanks again for sticking with me. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Assessing Stanton’s season (and future). There is no one single reason why the Yankees went 82-80 and missed the postseason. There are many reasons, and at the top is an offense that ranks 14th in runs scored since 2021. The Yankees have scored three fewer runs than the Giants and their massive home ballpark the last three years. That’s not gonna cut it.

The biggest (but not the only) offensive culprit this season was Giancarlo Stanton, the DH who didn’t H. Stanton slashed .191/.275/.420 (89 wRC+) in 415 plate appearances this year, which would be bad for an elite defensive center fielder and is terrible for a DH. He did hit 24 home runs, so that’s nice, but the rest of it is not. Stanton turns 34 next month and the trend is obvious:

“There’ll be a lot of changes,” Stanton told Greg Joyce about the upcoming offseason. “I’ve talked about how bad the year has been, so not much more to touch on that, but there will be a lot in the lab in the offseason. Everything will be taken a look at.”

The Yankees owe Stanton $98M through 2027, so, for better or worse, he’s not going anywhere. A trade is a pipe dream, and even if another team wants him, Stanton has a no-trade clause and has shown he will use it. He vetoed trades to the Cardinals and Giants before accepting his trade to the Yankees. There’s no reason to think he wants to leave. Giancarlo’s here to stay.

With that in mind, let’s dig into Stanton’s season and try to figure out what went wrong, and how he and the Yankees can (attempt to) fix it.

Defense and baserunning

Might as well start here. Once upon a time Stanton was above average defensively (+45 DRS from 2010-17!), though those days are long gone. He played only 565 innings in the field the last two years, or roughly 63 games worth, and in those 565 innings he was a -7 DRS and -5 OAA defender. Giancarlo’s a liability in the outfield now. It’s obvious when you watch him.

As for his speed (or lack thereof), Stanton ranks near the bottom of the league in sprint speed and average 90-foot time, though he holds back to prevent injury. His top sprint speed of the season was 26.6 ft/s, just a touch below the 27 ft/s league average, and it came on the play he hurt his hamstring in April. After that, Stanton never ran full speed because he doesn’t want to get hurt again.

Without getting into specifics, Boone told Joyce he and Stanton have spoken about changing his physique to get more athletic. Giancarlo is many things but out of shape is not one of them. He’s built like a Greek god and that muscular body type doesn’t always work well in baseball. Getting a little more trim and flexible could help him in a number of ways, not just running.

I think Stanton’s lack of speed gets a little too much attention – the .191/.275/.420 (89 wRC+) line is the big problem here – but it is an in-your-face weakness, and it does hurt the Yankees that he can’t move when he reaches base. The same goes in the field. He’s a liability when the Yankees put him out there, so he’s stuck at DH, which limits roster flexibility.

A realistic hope is Stanton, through changes to his body and getting over the mental block of worrying about injury whenever he busts it down the line, can get back to being a below average runner rather than one of the worst in the game. Chances are his foot speed is a lost cause though. Players this age and with this injury history typically don’t get faster.

Trouble with the fastball

There is one graph that neatly sums up Stanton’s decline as a hitter. It is this graph:

Stanton went from hammering fastballs his entire career to doing very little against them in 2023. His SLG against fastballs, wOBA against fastballs, xwOBA, you name it, those graphs all look like that one. Giancarlo went from being a fearsome fastball hitter, truly one of the best in the league, to being well below average. Here now are Stanton’s numbers vs. 95+ mph heaters:

Against sub-95 mph heaters, Stanton’s still really good! This season he slugged .600 with a .680 xwOBA against sub-95 mph fastballs. Anything above that though and Stanton really struggles, and is getting increasingly worse. Velocity continues to go up – the average four-seam fastball was 94.2 mph in 2023 – so this is a significant problem.

Normally I’d say a decline against velocity points to a decline in bat speed, but we know Stanton has the highest average bat speed in the league. By a lot too. We’re still learning about bat speed and what correlates to what, but physically, Stanton generates bat speed and power (93.3 mph exit velocity and 15.7% barrel rate in 2023) as well as anyone. Better than anyone, really.

“It’s about timing,” Stanton told Bob Klapisch last month and yeah, that’ll do it. Top of the line bat speed is nice, but if you’re not on time, it won’t do you much good. Here’s Stanton turning around two similar fastballs:

Don’t read anything into the toe tap. Stanton has used it on and off for years, including this year. To me, 2021 Stanton looks a little more upright and a little more closed. I think his hand position is slightly different too? His hands look a bit higher and closer to his face in 2023, though it’s possible I’m seeing things and looking for something that’s not there.

“When he was one of the best players in this league, it was more of an upright position, more of a load with his hands,” Sean Casey told Gary Phillips last month. “There was more of a dance in the batter’s box, I like to say. I think right now, G is maybe a little careful. Kind of spread out. He’s so big, if he touches the ball, it still goes 120 mph.”

The poor timing also shows up against breaking balls. Stanton’s whiff rate has held steady, though his chase rate against breaking balls shot up to 41% this year after sitting around 32% from 2017-22. Those ugly swings Stanton takes, when it looks like he decided ahead of time he was going to swing? Those aren’t new, right? They just happened more often this season.

Performing worse against 95+ mph heaters and becoming more prone to chasing breaking balls suggest the hitter is losing bat speed and cheating. We know Stanton still has elite bat speed, but maybe it is on the decline anyway? Perhaps this year’s 77.2 mph average bat speed was 79.4 mph last year and 81.3 mph the year before that. It’s possible, though the data’s not public, so we can't confirm.

It’s encouraging Stanton still has the best bat speed and hard-hit ability in the league. Those are natural gifts he still possesses. Giancarlo crushes the ball when he makes contact, and while his 29.9% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging strike rates this season were in line with his career averages, there’s an imbalance now. Stanton feasts on lower velocity heaters and mistake breaking balls. Anything else gives him trouble.

Now, everyone has trouble with higher end stuff, Stanton’s not unique there, though he was more productive against the average hitter against 95+ mph fastballs and all breaking balls throughout his career. That ability has faded the last two years. Is it because his skills are eroding, or is it a mechanical issue he can fix to get his timing on track? I fear it’s the former given his age.

What about his offense when he plays the field?

The last few years the narrative – the statistically supported narrative! – was Stanton hit better when he played the field. Being a DH isn’t easy. You take an at-bat, sit around for a few innings, then take another at-bat. Playing the field keeps you engaged and lets you take your mind off hitting for a bit. Watching so much video and taking so many swings between at-bats can be counterproductive. It gets to be paralysis by analysis real quick.

“If we give him a chance to keep in the outfield a little bit longer, keep him moving, I think that’s really the biggest thing,” Aaron Judge told Joyce last month. “Because I’ve been DHing a couple of these days, man, it’s tough to go from just sitting on the bench (to) hitting. You’re not really in the game as much as you are when you’re playing defense. So I think if there’s a way we can find a way to mix him in the outfield a little bit more, keep him moving, I think that’ll help him out.”

That’s nice in theory, but Stanton didn’t hit in any role this season. His numbers:

Stanton as DH, 2021: .267/.351/.491 (132 wRC+) in 467 PA
Stanton as OF, 2021: .302/.374/.635 (173 wRC+) in 107 PA

Stanton as DH, 2022: .189/.290/.438 (108 wRC+) in 287 PA
Stanton as OF, 2022: .259/.316/.524 (137 wRC+) in 158 PA

Stanton as DH, 2023: .199/.297/.436 (109 wRC+) in 277 PA
Stanton as OF, 2023: .181/.230/.402 (69 wRC+) in 135 PA

Perhaps this year was just a blip. It’s only 135 plate appearances, after all. The “Stanton hits better as an outfielder” thing sounds plausible and the numbers backed it up from 2021-22, but it is a bit chicken or the egg-y. When does Stanton play the field? When he’s healthiest. So does he hit better because he’s playing the field or because he’s healthy?

Ultimately, I’m not sure this matters, because Stanton’s defense is close to unplayable. You can hide him for a few innings in Yankee Stadium’s small right field behind, say, Gerrit Cole, who gets a lot of strikeouts and lazy fly balls, and that’s really it. Stanton’s a DH whether he and Judge like it or not. He has to figure out a way to be the best version of himself in that role.

What happens next?

It’s pretty obvious what happens next: Stanton will remain in the lineup, likely hitting fourth or fifth, and get the Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks treatment. We’re going to spend the next few years listening to Boone say a turnaround is right around the corner and the MVP version of Stanton is still in there. Heck, he’s already saying it.

“I absolutely believe it’s still in there for him to be what we need him to be in the middle of our lineup,” Boone told Joyce. ”He’s going to be one of those guys that has to have a really strong winter. He and I have already spoken about that and have some thoughts. But I absolutely believe it’s in there for him to be the factor we need him to be. He believes that, he knows that, and I think he is uber-focused on making sure he’s the guy we need him to be next year.”

There is no chance – zero – Hal Steinbrenner okays eating the $98M owed to Stanton so the Yankees can release him this winter. And, frankly, after watching Hicks go to the Orioles and hit .275/.381/.425 (129 wRC+), I can’t say I blame Hal for being unwilling to release Stanton. If I were him, I’d want to know why my hitting instructors couldn’t get that out of Hicks before I let some other team have Giancarlo on my dime. Blaming it on the boos isn’t a good enough answer.

I don’t know the best way to describe it – outdated? narrow-minded? – but the Yankees’ offensive approach is ineffective, and the good news is they acknowledged that reality when they fired hitting coach Dillon Lawson in July. Have they taken the proper steps to fix it? Beats me, but step one in fixing a problem is acknowledging the problem, and the Yankees have acknowledged it.

Stanton will be back next season and all throughout Spring Training we’re going to hear he looks great and the Yankees are excited about the work he did over the winter. Blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda. All that matters is how he performs in games, and I don’t mean Grapefruit League games. I mean regular season games when pitchers are competing, not working on things.

I do want to note Stanton’s contract, specifically the payments owed by the Marlins, is structured in such a way that releasing him becomes more feasible in a few years. Here’s the breakdown:

• 2024: $32M salary (Marlins pay $0)
• 2025: $32M salary (Marlins pay $0)
• 2026: $29M salary (Marlins pay $10M)
• 2027: $25M salary (Marlins pay $10M)
• 2028: $10M option buyout (Marlins pay $10M)

Stanton’s luxury tax hit will remain $22M each year from 2024-27, but in terms of actual dollars, the Yankees will pay $64M of the $98M they owe him from 2024-25. Then it’s only (“only”) $34M from 2026-27. The Yankees ate roughly $27M when they released Hicks, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Alex Rodriguez. That seems to be their threshold for dead money. Stanton will be over that come 2026, but in two years $34M could be the new $27M.

Point is, you can see how the money makes releasing Stanton after 2025 easier for the Yankees to swallow. The issue is getting to that point. How will Giancarlo perform in 2024, nevermind 2025? He’s been on a downward trend the last few years and is at an age when downward trends are hard to reverse. A new hitting coach and offensive philosophy could help. It’s also possible, and maybe even likely, Stanton’s skills are beyond the point of no return.

“The game’s about adjustments,” Stanton told Phillips last month. “And I just gotta make some and be back on it.”

2. Florial and the center field situation. After Harrison Bader slugged five home runs in nine postseason games last year, we all hoped it would carry over into this season, and he would contribute offensively. That never happened. Bader was a far below average hitter when he wasn’t hurt, and the fill-ins didn’t stand out either. The Yankees’ center field ranks:

• AVG: .237 (20th in MLB)
• OBP: .288 (26th)
• SLG: .376 (22nd)
• wRC+: 83 (26th)
• DRS: +2 (13th)
• OAA: +12 (6th)
• WAR: +1.7 (23rd)

Jasson Domínguez gave the Yankees a nice shot in the arm the week between his call up and his injury, otherwise the center field situation was bleak. Unless you count Aaron Judge’s 78 games in center in 2022, the Yankees have not had even an average center fielder since Aaron Hicks had his last good year in 2020, which was a short and bizarre season.

Perpetual prospect Estevan Florial (still prospect-eligible!) got a look in September only because Domínguez got hurt, and didn’t really stand out. He did work a lot of deep counts, but in the end, a .230/.324/.311 (83 wRC+) slash line and 28.2% strikeout rate (and occasionally weird routes in center) didn’t exactly show the Yankees they were wrong to keep him in Triple-A all year.

“I think he’s done a good job of seeing pitches here,” Aaron Boone told Mark Sanchez last month, which is the faintest of praise. “He’s been getting on base a little bit, which has been nice.”

Other than Domínguez, who will miss the start of next season, Florial is the only natural center fielder on the 40-man roster. The Yankees could put Everson Pereira in center if need be, though he only played left after being called up, and he played about twice as much corner outfield as center field in the minors this year. He’s better suited for left at this point.

The Yankees need a center fielder this offseason and that’s underselling it. They need a starting center fielder, a backup center fielder*, and a Triple-A center fielder. They need three new players atop the center field depth chart. I suppose Brandon Lockridge could play center in Triple-A, but I imagine the Yankees want someone with MLB experience in that spot, just in case there are injuries and they have to call that third center fielder up (think Billy McKinney this year).

* I assume the Yankees don't want to put Aaron Judge out there unless absolutely necessary. They didn't want to do it this year. They only did it because Bader got hurt.

Florial could, in theory, fill the backup center fielder’s spot. He shouldn’t start unless the Yankees go full rebuild (nope) and there’s no sending him to Triple-A because he’s out of minor league options and has already cleared waivers once, meaning he can elect free agency if he clears waivers again. I’m sure Florial would do exactly that and look to join a team that offers a greater MLB opportunity.

The thing is, we know how the Yankees feel about Florial. They don’t consider him a viable big leaguer. We know that because he was passed over multiple times this season, and if Domínguez hadn't gotten hurt, Florial would have stayed in Triple-A all year. His late season call up was the epitome of “well, we’re out of excuses now, might as well give him a shot.”

There are three possible outcomes with Florial this offseason. In order of likelihood, I’d rank them:

1. Released or non-tendered to open 40-man roster space.
2. Traded for not a whole lot, also to open 40-man roster space.
3. Hang around all winter and come to Spring Training as depth.

No. 3 almost feels cruel. The Yankees are not going to give Florial a real opportunity – “To complain was not going to solve anything,” Florial told Sanchez about being passed over so many times – and they’re at the end of the line with his roster flexibility. If he’s not on the MLB roster next year, he either gets claimed on waivers or elects free agency. Those are the only two possibilities, MLB roster or goner.

Nineteen games and 71 plate appearances (the same number as Franchy Cordero!) was never going to be enough for Florial to show he belongs, and he didn’t perform particularly well anyway. The Yankees need two MLB center fielders and one Triple-A center fielder this winter, and it seems the only healthy center fielder on their roster is not a candidate for any of the three jobs.

3. Coaching staff and front office thoughts. It has been 12 days since the Yankees played their last regular season game and we’re still waiting for them to come out of hiding and say something official. Several other teams went to the postseason, got eliminated, and held their end-of-season press conferences already. There has been radio silence from the Yankees, and that speaks volumes. If they were going to fire Brian Cashman or Aaron Boone, or make some other significant change, it would have happened already. Anyway, I have a few thoughts on some recent front office and coaching staff happenings, so let’s get to ‘em.

On Showalter

On the final day of the regular season, the Mets fired Buck Showalter, though it was presented in such a way that it made it seem like he had a say in the matter. He did not. The Mets told him they were going in another direction and they could either can him and announce it in a press release, or he could announce it himself with some dignity, so he did the latter.

Soon thereafter, Joel Sherman laid out the case for the Yankees hiring Showalter, but not as a manager or coach. As a quality control person to dig into the organization. I didn’t think much of the idea initially, but it’s grown on me, and now I’m for it. From Sherman:

What the Yankees would be appealing to if Showalter would even consider this is that at his core he is a Yankee. That the organization that drafted him and gave him the first chance to manage in the minors and majors remains his true home base, and putting the franchise back on a championship path would be ultra-meaningful to him. And that he has a relentless passion to improve the quality of players combined with as keen an eye for what is working and what is not as anyone in the game. And that this role might be his last best shot to make a difference for a major league team and win an elusive World Series ring, albeit not in the dugout.

Steinbrenner and Cashman would need to clearly define the role — we will meet weekly to take seriously all of your recommendations as you travel the system and offer what you think is valuable, but you cannot turn negative if each of them is not applied. I think Showalter still has a lot to offer, especially to a minor league group without much major league experience to know what works in the bigs. I think he cares greatly down deep about the Yankees. And I think if unleashed to provide insight into what is and isn’t working and how to fix it, his creative mind would be engaged and incredibly helpful.

The Yankees badly need a fresh set of eyes and new ideas, I’ve been writing it since at least 2021 if not before that, and Showalter would bring a new perspective. Let him dig into the farm system and player development, the Major League coaching staff, everything. Hire him to, essentially, conduct the organizational audit we thought the Yankees were doing, but really aren’t.

Showalter supposedly wants to continue managing, so much so that he’s said to be interested in an Angels team that looks to be years from contention. That’s not going to work for the Yankees and, honestly, I don’t want Showalter as manager either. I think he’s a better manager than Aaron Boone but also behind the times in some respects. We saw it the last two years.

That doesn’t mean Showalter doesn’t have a lot to offer. He can be very helpful in other ways, and if he’s open to whatever you want to call his quality control position, I say go for it. The Yankees can’t stay on their current path. New ideas are necessary and part of that is bringing in outside people to see the things you’re missing.

(To be clear, even if Showalter is open to it, I have zero expectation of the Yankees doing this. Less than zero, if that’s possible. Also, it would not be fair to Boone to make him look over his shoulder and listen to people say Showalter should replace him all year. Boone and Showalter are said to be close. Buck may not take a job with the Yankees for that reason.)

Eppler resigns

Soon after the Mets named David Stearns their new president of baseball operations, GM Billy Eppler resigned even though he was expected to remain with the team and in a prominent front office role. Turns out MLB is investigating Eppler for improper use of the injured list. I’m not sure if it had anything to do with his resignation, but he is being investigated.

Eppler has a history with the Yankees. He started with the team as a scout in 2004 and worked his way up the ladder, and was Brian Cashman’s top lieutenant from 2012-15, before leaving to take over as Angels GM. Things didn’t go well during his five years in Anaheim and eventually Eppler landed with the Mets. He spent two seasons in Flushing.

The thought crossed my mind Eppler could (should?) rejoin the Yankees for one reason and one reason only: Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Eppler has a history of acquiring top Japanese players. He was front and center when the Yankees landed Masahiro Tanaka. He signed Shohei Ohtani with the Angels and Kodai Senga with the Mets, and he was all over Yamamoto this summer.

When you’re trying to land a premium free agent in a competitive marketplace, any little advantage can help, and Eppler’s greatest successes are Japanese players. Signing these guys is what he does best. I’m sure he could help with Yamamoto who, in my opinion, should be the Yankees’ No. 1 priority this offseason. 25-year-olds with this kind of ability aren’t available often. Opening the wallet for primed aged players is good business.

Based on the public information about the investigation, I don’t view it as disqualifying. Eppler was a little too brazen with the phantom injured list and got caught. Every team uses it to, say, rest a young pitcher or avoid cutting a veteran a few days before a roster spot opens up. This is more of a “you got caught? you dumbass” slap on the wrist thing than a serious infraction.

Mostly, I just connected the dots between Eppler’s history with the Yankees, Eppler’s history of successfully signing top Japanese players, and the Yankees’ expected pursuit of Yamamoto. You don’t need Eppler to offer Yamamoto a big bag of cash, but it helps to have someone who knows how to successfully navigate that market. There’s much more to it than “here’s our offer.”

Yankees likely to suggest Boone get tougher

According to Jon Heyman, the higher-ups are likely to suggest to Aaron Boone he be tougher and instill more discipline moving forward. It’s pretty obvious Boone is coming back at this point, though the Yankees can not stick with the status quo. Things have to change the way they do things (many things). Anyway, I have two quick thoughts on this idea that the Yankees want a tougher version of Boone.

First, the Yankees absolutely need more discipline, and I don’t mean pulling someone who jogs out a ground ball. I mean more discipline on the field. Fewer careless mistakes defensively and on the bases. They have plagued this team since Boone took over and it is losing baseball. Every single night the Yankees have to overcome the other team and their own stupid mistakes.

And second, good grief you idiots. If you want a tougher manager, then hire a tougher manager. Don’t try to make Boone into something he’s not. He’s laid back, that’s who he is, and Boone has been the manager for six years now. He has a long history with most of the roster. Players will see right through an inauthentic tough guy act. I’m not sure it’s going to register and might even be counterproductive.

It feels like everything the Yankees are doing right now, from asking Boone to be tougher to the phony front office audit, is being done in service of placating the masses and giving off the impression of taking action. They want the manager to behave differently but they’re not going to change the manager. They want us to think they’re reviewing the front office, but they’re keeping the same general manager.

There is a very straightforward solution to the problems the Yankees are either trying to fix or want us to believe they are trying to fix (bring in new people), and they’re just not doing it. I do not understand it. The Yankees are trending down and have been for several years, and everything they’re doing (or not doing) feels like a half-measure. Shrug.

“We’re going to be making some changes. Some may be more subtle than others. But I think we’ve uncovered certainly things we can do better,” Hal Steinbrenner told Ron Blum earlier this week. “Possibly personnel (changes), but not necessarily personnel. It could be practices.”

Guardians want to interview Mendoza

And finally, Sherman says the Guardians have contacted the Yankees about bench coach Carlos Mendoza. They want him to interview for their managerial opening now that Terry Francona has retired. Can you believe Francona managed Cleveland (11 years) nearly as long as he managed the Phillies (four years) and Red Sox (eight years) combined? Where does the time go?

Anyway, this will be Mendoza’s fourth managerial interview. He previously interviewed with the Red Sox and Tigers during the 2020-21 offseason, and the White Sox last offseason. Mendoza has been with the Yankees since 2009. He started as a minor league coach and worked his way up the ladder, and has been Boone’s bench coach since Nov. 2019.

I have nothing against Mendoza, I just want the Yankees to change the way they do things, and if it takes Mendoza leaving for a managerial job elsewhere to kick start those changes, then great. For his sake, I hope he gets the Cleveland job and advances his career. For the Yankees sake, I hope he does too. It would force them to go in a different direction.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Frank asks: I don’t really have a question, but if you want to commiserate in my misery every time Harper hits a big homer in the playoffs. Feel free to vent in your response. I don’t want to exaggerate or anything, but has there ever been a more perfect player suited to wear the pinstripes as Harper? We should be celebrating his career but I’m just bitter.

I am going to be a whiny baby about the Yankees passing on Bryce Harper until he retires, and probably even longer than that. Beyond the perfect on-field fit – a prime aged lefty power hitter! – Harper thrives in the limelight and plays with an attitude, and confidence that ventures well into cockiness, and he backs it up. The Yankees need that. In addition to the roster deficiencies, the Yankees are a pushover. At best, they lack a killer instinct, and at worst, they're soft.

What Harper did in Game 3 the other night was legendary. He made a baserunning mistake to end Game 2, Orlando Arcia talked trash after the game – “Haha attaboy Harper!” Arcia yelled in a clubhouse full of reporters – then Harper went out the next day and smashed two homers and stared Arcia down as he rounded the bases. This look is louder than anything that came out of Arcia’s mouth:

“(My teammates) looked at me and they were like, ‘What are you going to do?’” Harper said after Game 3 when asked what he thought about Arcia’s comments, and, well, he did that. The Phillies outscored the Braves 12-2 the rest of the series after Harper’s go-ahead homer (and stare) in Game 3. He broke them. Crushed their spirit. They came at the king and missed.

I think the Yankees not signing Harper was 10% not wanting another long-term contract and 90% the Yankees having their head so far up their own ass about what it takes to succeed in New York. They saw a brazen 26-year-old and said nope, that won’t work here! We’re the Yankees and Very Professional. They failed to recognize this guy was raised in the spotlight. No player has ever been more made for New York.

Maybe the Yankees would have ruined Harper. Maybe he would have been uncomfortable being himself in the Yankees' corporate atmosphere and been a lesser player, or maybe he would have gotten too pull conscious with the short porch. I think Harper’s talent and swagger are transcendent and, if anything, we would have seen the very best version of Harper in pinstripes.

Every postseason I watch Harper hit huge homers and rise to the occasion, and I get mad all over again about the Yankees passing on him. They didn't even talk to him in free agency. I will never forgive the Yankees for robbing me of this. Harper should be on his way to Monument Park and a Hall of Fame cap with the interlocking NY. The Yankees have never made a bigger free agent mistake in my lifetime. They are right where they belong because of it.

Gregg asks: In your opinion, from what you have seen do you feel that Brian Cashman truly sees the need for a change in philosophy? To me, it seems like he is doing just enough to try to placate fans (and Hal). Also, curious if you feel that the Yankees truly understand how angry (turning towards apathy) their fans are. Thanks!

There is evidence Cashman and the Yankees see the need to change their team-build approach. Omar Minaya and Brian Sabean were brought in before the season to provide a more old school perspective. Firing Dillon Lawson midseason was an enormous step. It was the first time the Yankees fired a coach during the season since 1995. They didn’t do it to placate fans. They did it because they believed it was an important step toward fixing their problems on offense.

Also, there have been attempts to diversify the lineup with lefties (Andrew Benintendi, Joey Gallo, Anthony Rizzo) and contact-oriented hitters (Benintendi, Rizzo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa). Most of those moves didn’t work out but the intentions were good. The Yankees just went about it in a bad way, which speaks more to their player evaluation issues than their philosophy. There’s a difference between saying I want contact hitters and identifying good contact hitters, you know? They’ve shown a willingness to change, but their efforts to change have been ineffective.

As for the Yankees being aware of how upset and/or apathetic the fan base is becoming, Hal Steinbrenner told us himself, right? He said he was “confused” about why fans were upset in June. Hal’s priorities and loyalties are different than the fan base’s. Fans want championships, or at least a team capable of competing for a championship. You can’t win every year, we know that, but we can tell the difference between a team with a chance and a team without one.

Hal’s priority is keeping his investors happy and his loyalty is to his 29 business partners. As long as the Yankees are making money and reasonably competitive, he’s happy. Winning a World Series would be icing on the cake, but clearly, it’s not the No. 1 priority. It hasn’t been in some time. I think Cashman has lost his fastball, but I also think he’s gone along with Hal because hey, if the boss wants to lower expectations and make my life easier, who am I to argue?

Steve asks: Does this year’s postseason validate the Yankees philosophy? For example, the postseason is determined by home runs, an ace, a dominant bullpen and solid defense. Add to that the idea that winning your division doesn’t really matter. If it does validate their philosophy, then why bother making drastic changes?

I don’t buy that winning the division doesn’t matter. It gives you a chance at a Wild Card Series bye and the bye is very valuable. You get to skip an entire round! The layoff is one day longer than the All-Star break. It’s not excessive. All the complaining I’ve seen has come from whiny Braves fans and media. That team can never lose and own it. It’s always someone else’s fault. If the bye is that big of a problem, let teams pick between the bye and playing in the Wild Card Series. We all know how that would go.

(The sample size with this postseason format is 1.5 years. Everyone needs to chill out and stop making sweeping declarations about what is and what isn’t working. The Dodgers and Orioles lost because they went into the postseason with weak rotations. Those were known issues. The Braves lost because they played a great team and sometimes you just lose.)

As for the philosophy, what Steve is describing is be great at everything, right? A home run is the best outcome for an at-bat, an ace is one of the best pitchers in the sport, a dominant bullpen is one of the best in the game, so on and so forth. The more good things you have, the better your chances of winning. There will always be some element of luck and randomness involved in short postseason series, but you can overcome the crapshootiness with talent.

Like I said in the last question, I’m not sure the Yankees have the wrong philosophy as much as they implement that philosophy poorly, particularly on offense (they’re pretty good with pitching these days). There is no magic formula. The only “right” way to build a team is be good at as many things as possible. The Yankees are sometimes so laser focused on one thing that they forget the rest, like prioritizing exit velocity because high exit velocity correlates well to positive outcomes, but accepting excessive strikeouts and swings with exploitable holes to get it.

James asks: Last week’s mailbag question got me thinking. If Soriano’s HR in Game 7 was the game winner, do you think the Yankees would’ve still have traded for ARod? Two reasons I’d say no; first, it would be tough to trade a World Series MVP two seasons later. Also, the Yankees might not have made the big swing move for ARod with another WS win in 2001. What say you?

The Yankees absolutely still would have traded Alfonso Soriano for Alex Rodriguez. They let John Wetteland and Hideki Matsui leave as free agents immediately after they were named World Series MVP. I have no reason to think the Yankees would not have been willing to trade Soriano two years after he won the award. For the best player in baseball, no less.

Remember, when the Yankees traded for A-Rod, he was only 28 and he had hit .305/.395/.615 (156 wRC+) while averaging – averaging – 52 homers in the three prior seasons. While playing Gold Glove defense, no less. Also, the Rangers ate $67M of the $179M left on his contract. The Yankees got A-Rod’s age 28-34 seasons at $15.6M a pop (though he opted out at age 31).

Say what you want about the decision to re-sign A-Rod in 2008. The end of that contract was ugly, but it did help the Yankees win their most recent World Series, so who am I to complain? The trade was a slam dunk though. As good as Soriano was, you give him up to get a heavily subsidized in-his-prime MVP candidate. Even with a World Series MVP trophy on his mantle, Soriano was a goner. The Yankees weren’t passing up the A-Rod trade.

Mike asks: Have curveballs become antiquated? Statcast search (only date backs to 2019) shows there were 11 pitchers who's curveball had a pitch value of 10+ in 2019. 23 (without rounding up) had a whiff rate > 40%. This season, 6 pitchers threw a curveball with a PV of 10+ and 16 had a whiff rate > 40+%.

Fastball and curveball usage is going down, slider usage is going up, and changeup usage is holding steady. Here are the numbers for the last five 162-game seasons (lumping sweepers in with sliders and splitters in with changeups):

It’s kinda amazing fastball velocity inches upward every season and yet fastball usage is trending down. It makes sense though. Pitches that break are harder to hit.

Anyway, the old adage is anyone can throw a slider, but you either have a curveball in your wrist or you don’t. Modern pitching supports that, no? Everyone goes into the pitching lab and comes out with a big new slider, not a new curveball. Gerrit Cole and Domingo Germán are the only Yankees who use curveballs regularly, and for Cole, it’s his third pitch.

The obsession with sliders is probably cyclical, like most things in this game. Sinkers were big in the 1990s and 2000s, then teams skewed toward four-seamers during the 2010s, now they’re back to sinkers. I think eventually – and this could happen within the next few years – sliders will get to be overused and have diminishing returns, and curveballs will make a comeback.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)