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October 2nd, 2023: Season Wrap-Up, Rodón, Montas, Awards

Sad news: Tim Wakefield passed away over the weekend. He was only 57 and commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed Wakefield had cancer in his statement. Wakefield was a fixture during the most intense years of the Yankees vs. Red Sox rivalry – I swear, it felt like he pitched every other game against the Yankees from 1996-2011 – and by all accounts he was a wonderful guy. Cancer sucks, man. Here now is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon because I want to get this published before the Yankees make any news (if they even make any news this week).

1. Weekend thoughts. The 2023 regular season is in the books and you know what bugs me the most? That this is the year the Yankees finished in fourth place, a year in which the American League is so wide open. The Astros haven’t been this vulnerable in years, the Orioles and Rays have like 3.5 starting pitchers between them, and the Twins are the Twins and the Rangers are the Rangers. This year was maybe the best chance for the Yankees to break through and escape the ALCS. Instead, they’re already on vacation. Sucks. Here are a few thoughts on the season’s last few games.

The winning season streak lives

Saturday night the Yankees won their 82nd game and clinched their 31st consecutive winning season. The Yankees haven’t had a losing season since going 76-86 in 1992, the year they drafted Derek Jeter, and this is the second longest such streak in baseball history. It’s the third longest in the history of the four major North American sports leagues.

1. 39 seasons: 1926-64 New York Yankees
2. 32 seasons: 1952-83 Montreal Canadiens
3. 31 seasons: 1993-2023 New York Yankees (and counting)

"We're going home tomorrow so that's inevitably the takeaway from our season,” Aaron Boone told Max Goodman after the 82nd win. “We expect to be playing in October and the fact that we're not going to be doing that beyond tomorrow is tough."

I’m glad the Yankees kept the winning season streak going, never being bad (like bad bad) is something to be celebrated. So many teams are bad on purpose these days. I understand the “the worse the Yankees are, the more likely they are to change things” sentiment. I just don’t think it was ever possible for this team to be so bad that ownership would be forced to act.

All that said, the Yankees went 82-80, their worst record since 1992, and the pennant drought is up to 14 years. That’s tied with 1982-95 for the second longest in franchise history behind 1903-20 (18 years), which began during the Highlanders years. The offense was not just one of the worst in baseball (25th in runs scored), it was one of the worst in franchise history. Let’s use “+” stats to compare across eras:

AVG+
1. 1914: 89
2. 1913: 90
3. 1968: 90
4. 1915: 91
5. 2023: 92

OBP+
1. 1925: 91
2. 1990: 92
3. 1969: 93
4. 1965: 93

12. 2023: 96

SLG+
1. 1913: 84
2. 1914: 86
3. 1967: 87
4. 1968: 90

13. 2023: 96

wRC+
1. 1913: 81
2. 1914: 82
3. 1990: 85
4. 1967: 85

14. 2023: 95

Over 100 years of Yankees baseball and, relative to the league average, this was one of the 15 or so worst offenses the franchise has ever had. Batting average is way down these days – only nine qualifiers hit .300 this year – and the Yankees are still bad at hitting for average compared to the rest of the league. The offense began to slip in 2021 and it landed us here. Here now are the Yankees’ 2023 positional WAR rankings:

The Yankees are not 1-2 pieces away from being a legitimate World Series contender. This isn’t a “sign Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and we’re good to go” offseason. The Yankees need structural changes. They have to change how they evaluate and develop players as well as the skills they prioritize, and they must must must improve fundamentally. This team is so bad on the bases (and not just because they’re slow) and with the basics defensively. How long have we watched outfielders throw to the wrong base? It’s gone on far too long.

“There’s some bigger picture ideas and philosophies that I think maybe need to change,” Judge, who continues to call the front office out in the least controversial way possible, told Bryan Hoch on Sunday. “... I think it’s just about how we use (analytics) and how we value them is an aspect that we just maybe need to look at again. The Yankees are top notch in the numbers we get. I think we’re the best in the game at that. I think it’s about funneling those down to the players in the right format. I wouldn’t say (we are) overloaded. I think it’s just looking at the right numbers. I think maybe we might be looking at the wrong ones. We need to value some other ones that people might see as having no value.”

I have a hard time taking the front office audit seriously. It’s apparently not important enough to start right away, and Sean Casey told Greg Joyce the Yankees have already asked him to return* next season. They’re making personnel decisions before this supposed deep dive into the organization has even started. When this audit produces actual results, I’ll give the Yankees credit. Until then, I don’t want to hear about it.

* Casey later walked back his comments, saying there was no offer and he only spoke to Boone about the possibility of coming back. I assume the Yankees did ask Casey to come back, but he wasn’t supposed to say anything.

The change has to start at the top, with Hal Steinbrenner being willing to make tough decisions. So far there’s little to suggest he is. Hal’s not a bad owner, his heart’s just not in it, which is bad in its own way. The front office has lost its fastball – I can’t imagine any other GM surviving the Harrison Bader, Josh Donaldson/Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Gallo, and Frankie Montas trades – and I’m not sure why I would expect it to come back. I'll believe it's back when I see it.

And the thing is, this team could totally make the postseason next year. The Yankees finished seven games out of a postseason spot this year, not 17. Keep Judge and Anthony Rizzo on the field, get more from the non-Gerrit Cole starters*, make a few smart moves in the offseason, and the Yankees are right back in the race next year. It’s not a long shot. It is 100% doable. The question is do they get there with band-aids, or by making systematic changes that set the franchise up better for long-term success?

* Starters other than Cole had a 5.06 ERA and +2.3 WAR this season. Egads.

I’m glad the winning season streak lives on but do not mistake that for me saying things are okay. As currently constructed and operated, the Yankees have a ceiling, and that ceiling is getting pantsed in the postseason by a team that operates the same way, only better. This season was not the Yankees’ floor though. There is still a long way to fall if things remain status quo.

Rodón’s historically bad start

Good news for Luis Severino: he didn’t finish the season with the highest ERA in the rotation. Thanks to quite literally the worst start in Yankees history, Carlos Rodón finished his first year in pinstripes with a 6.85 ERA in 64.1 innings around multiple injuries (Severino had a 6.65 ERA in 89.1 innings). Eight runs and zero outs against a 106-loss Royals team that scored the eighth fewest runs in 2023.

“It’s pretty disappointing,” Rodón told Hoch after Friday’s game. “There’s not much else to say about it. Whenever your performance is bad, it’s never easy to flush.”

Rodón became the ninth pitcher in history to allow at least eight runs and not record an out, and the first since Steven Matz did it with the Mets in April 2016. Here are the most runs allowed with zero outs recorded in Yankees history:

1. Carlos Rodón: 8 runs vs. Royals (Sept. 29th, 2023)
2. Bob Kammeyer: 8 runs vs. Cleveland (Sept. 18th, 1979)
3. Jonathan Holder: 7 runs vs. Red Sox (Aug. 2nd, 2018)
4. Many tied with 6 runs (most recently Albert Abreu in 2021)

Jonathan Holder! Remember him? He was in Triple-A with the Angels this season. Allowed 46 runs in 66.2 innings in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League (.272/.369/.453 league slash line!). Holder had shoulder surgery two years ago and has not pitched in the big leagues since 2020, when he was still with the Yankees. I hope he makes it back to the show at some point.

Anyway, Kammeyer did it in a relief appearance (it proved to be his final big league game), so Rodón’s game is the worst start in Yankees history. Only two other Yankees starters allowed even six runs without getting an out prior to Rodón: Catfish Hunter in 1978 and George Pipgras in 1928. Pipgras came up last month because he was the last Yankee to start back-to-back games before Ian Hamilton did it as an opener. Baseball is a flat circle.

And because allowing eight runs without getting an out isn’t bad enough, Rodón turned his back on Matt Blake in the middle of a mound visit. What the hell is this?

For what it’s worth, Rodón owned up to it after the game: “Really embarrassing and then doing that with Matt coming out trying to help me, I turned my back. I was not in the right mind. That’s on me,” he told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d). Blake said: “He’s frustrated. That’s a big part of it. There’s a remorseful side and an apologetic side to it, but you can’t act like that.”

Reporters in the clubhouse said Boone called Rodón into his office after the game and the two had a closed door meeting. But then, on Saturday, Boone said disciplining Rodón “possibly would’ve been on the table” had it been earlier in the season, according to Chris Kirschner. Apparently you get a get out of jail free card when you act out late in the year? Good to know.

What a joke. A player disrespecting a coach like that – on the mound for all to see! – should not be tolerated and Rodón should be disciplined. Game 1, Game 162, doesn’t matter. There is a lack of accountability throughout the organization. No one faces consequences for anything. The Yankees have talked endlessly about setting an example for the kids – Judge said it was the reason he kept playing on his injured toe – but I guess that doesn’t apply here.

Between this and the blown kiss in Anaheim, Rodón is quickly developing a reputation for lashing out at others when things go poorly. That leads to the “he can’t handle New York” and “headcase” labels, and boy, those are hard to shake. Pitching to a 6.85 ERA (5.79 FIP) and missing a bunch of time with injuries is bad enough. Now Rodón is being a pain in the ass on top of it.

So what do the Yankees do now? The only thing they can do: hope it goes better next season. Hope Rodón stays healthy and pitches effectively, if not like he did from 2021-22. We saw that guy for a few innings here and there this season, but not nearly often enough, and so far the headaches outnumber the good performances. Until he proves otherwise, Rodón is a problem.

“Hopefully he’ll give (fans) lots of reasons to cheer,” Boone told Gary Phillips after Friday’s game. “You can quiet those things and turn those things around in a hurry with consistent performance. And that’s what we gotta get to.”

Rodón’s first season with the Yankees was part Carl Pavano, part Kenny Rogers, and part Ed Whitson. It was every big name Yankees pitching bust of the last 40 years smushed together into one mustachioed left-hander who talks a big game and doesn’t back it up. Rodón now gets to stew on Friday’s disaster all offseason long. To which I say: good. Don’t like it? Pitch better.

Montas returns

Montas having a better season than Rodón is the ending 2023 deserves. Frankie the Yankee made his season debut over the weekend and he looked okay. Two hits, one walk, and one strikeout in 1.1 innings. He got the win too. Montas looked like a pitcher making a rehab appearance in the big leagues because that's what he was. He made only two Triple-A rehab starts (three innings total), remember.

“I had a lot of nerves. It felt like my first time pitching in the big leagues,” Montas told Hoch. “I felt pretty good. The pitch shapes were good. My shoulder feels really, really good. I’m just trying to enjoy this moment as much as I can.”

Blake went out of his way to praise Montas – “He’s a good clubhouse guy. He’s done a lot for our young guys down in Florida, really helping them along the way and teaching them to be professionals in the Tampa environment,” Blake told Phillips – and Frankie sounded genuinely appreciative of pitching Saturday. “(I wanted to) do this for me, mentally,” he told Pete Caldera.

Montas told Joyce he is “looking forward to the future, hopefully it’s here,” and Boone didn’t shoot down the idea of a reunion (granted, it’s not up to him). Jack Curry wondered aloud if the Yankees would offer Montas an incentive-laden one-year contract. No one is more plugged in than Jack. When he mentions something like that, I can’t help but wonder if it’s happening.

The fan part of my brain says no, the Yankees need a major vibes adjustment and re-signing Montas would be the opposite of that. Just take the L and move on. The more rational part of my brain says Montas is pretty good when healthy, there’s no such thing as too much pitching, and the free agent class stinks. Plus the Yankees now have a better grasp of him and his medicals.

There are worse rolls of the dice on a one-year contract than Montas. I’d rather the Yankees look elsewhere, but I can understand why they’d go this route, if they do in fact go this route. For now, Frankie’s 2023 season consisted of seven batters faced and 26 pitches, all after the Yankees were eliminated from postseason contention. A disaster any way you slice it.

Miscellany

I was hoping Mike King would escape the season before the home run regression monster bit him. Alas. King gave up three homers in four innings Sunday after giving up one homer in his first 36.1 innings as a starter. That wasn’t gonna last. I’m not gonna read anything into King having a rough Game 162. I’m looking forward to him as a starter next season … Has Kyle Higashioka played his final game as a Yankee? It’s not hard to envision the Yankees going with a Jose Trevino/Austin Wells tandem at catcher next season. Higashioka is the organization’s longest tenured player (drafted in 2008), but he’ll turn 34 in April, and the Yankees have younger and cheaper options behind the plate. I tend to overhate the backup catcher (it’s my only flaw), but Higashioka’s been a good Yankee. Whenever he’s done playing, I expect to see him back in the organization as a coach or scout or whatever he wants to do … There were a lot – A LOT – of bullpen innings available the last few weeks because of injuries and Greg Weissert had a nice September. He had one bad outing against the Brewers (three runs in one inning), and otherwise allowed two runs in 10.1 innings while striking out 11. I wouldn’t say Weissert did enough to pitch his way into the 2023 bullpen. He just had a nice September, and he has a minor league option remaining, so maybe he moved himself to the back of the line when the Yankees inevitably need to clear 40-man roster space this offseason … And finally, the Yankees didn’t even use Rodón’s disaster start to play Isiah Kiner-Falefa at all nine positions Friday. Position players can only pitch when the team is down eight runs or up 10 runs, and the Yankees were down 9-0 in the first inning. SMH Yankees, you had the perfect opportunity.

2. The Yankees and 2023’s awards. The regular season is over and the postseason begins Tuesday. Here’s the fancy postseason bracket our people at CBS put together. The 1990s expansion committees must be proud.

The Astros managed to get a Wild Card Series bye with 90 wins and two 84-win teams made it (Diamondbacks and Marlins). None of those Wild Card Series deserves a prime time slot. MLB is forcing Brewers vs. D’Backs into the 7pm ET slot and Marlins vs. Phillies into the 8pm ET slot. Yeesh. There are too many damn postseason teams. Go back to four per league.

I guess I’m rooting for the Phillies this postseason. Fun group of players. I can’t pull for the Blue Jays, Orioles, or Rays for AL East rivalry reasons, plus I don’t want to see a team rewarded for tanking as hard as the O’s. I just can not get on board with being bad on purpose. Also, screw the Astros. That goes without saying. I have no feelings about the Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, or any of the other teams. If they win the World Series, whatever.

Anyway, the regular season is over and so is awards voting season. MLB’s major awards – MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year – are regular season awards. The votes are already in and nothing that happens in October matters. I’m in favor of a Postseason MVP either in addition to or instead of World Series and Championship Series MVP, but it doesn’t exist yet.

I don’t have an awards vote this season and I’ve never had one, and I don’t expect to get one anytime soon. The BBWAA’s New York chapter is huge and the awards votes rightfully go to the long-tenured beat reporters who cover a team full-time, not schmucks like me who parachute in every now and then. I do get my first Hall of Fame vote next year though (!). I’m looking forward to that.

With the regular season complete, let’s go through the major awards and figure out where the various 2023 Yankees fit in, shall we? We shall. Let’s get to it.

Cy Young

Let’s start with the easy one: Gerrit Cole will win the Cy Young. He should win it unanimously, though you can never be sure. Two voters found a reason to not vote Aaron Judge for MVP last season, after all. Cole would be the first unanimous Cy Young winner since, well, Sandy Alcantara and Justin Verlander last year. I knew Alcantara won unanimously. Didn’t realize Verlander did too.

Cole put an exclamation point on his season with last Wednesday’s two-hit shutout, and he’s at or near the top of the American League in everything that matters. Here are his ranks among AL pitchers with enough innings to qualify for ERA title:

As I have noted time and time again, the league leader in Baseball Reference WAR has won 10 of the last 14 Cy Youngs, and was the runner-up on two other occasions. It’s the best single stat Cy Young predictor at the moment. Cole’s bWAR lead is enormous. Blake Snell is second with +6.0 bWAR and Sonny Gray is a distant second in the AL at +5.4 bWAR.

In addition to passing the bWAR test, Cole leads the league in innings and ERA. In the Cy Young era (since 1956), 20 pitchers have led their league in both innings and ERA, and 18 won the Cy Young. The two exceptions: Freddy Garcia in 2001 (third in the voting behind Roger Clemens and Mark Mulder) and Johan Santana in 2008 (third behind Tim Lincecum and Brandon Webb). Cole is now the 21st member of that club.

Cole’s Cy Young case should satisfy statheads and traditionalists alike. I mean, will anyone really vote Gray or Kyle Bradish or Luis Castillo over Cole? I can see Shohei Ohtani over Judge in last year’s MVP voting. I don’t agree with it but I can see it. But those guys over Cole this year? Nah. Cole was the best pitcher in baseball this year. He’s a lock for the Cy Young and will be the first Yankee to win it since Clemens in 2001.

Will any other Yankee get a Cy Young vote? Seems unlikely. The thought crossed my mind that Mike King, whose 2.75 ERA was fourth lowest among the 127 pitchers with at least 100 innings, could get a down ballot vote given his excellence in the bullpen and (briefly) the rotation, but nah. The Cy Young ballot is only five names deep. I don’t think a voter will see King as one of the AL’s five best pitchers in 2023, no matter how electric he looked in September.

Most Valuable Player

The toe (and hip) injury put an end to Judge’s MVP defense. He missed too much time to repeat even though he played at an MVP level while on the field. I mean, the guy hit 37 home runs in 106 games. That’s pretty nuts. Excluding pitchers, here are the fewest games played by MVP winners in non-strike and non-pandemic seasons:

1. Gabby Hartnett, 1935 Cubs: 116 games
2. George Brett, 1980 Royals: 117 games
3. Joe DiMaggio, 1939 Yankees: 120 games
4. Roy Campanella, 1955 Dodgers: 123 games
5. Mickey Mantle, 1962 Yankees: 123 games

Brett played 117 of 162 team games in 1980, or 72.2%. That’s a lower rate than Hartnett (116 of 154, or 75.3%). All Brett had to do to win MVP that year was hit .390/.454/.644 with more homers (24) than strikeouts (22). He even led baseball with +9.4 WAR despite missing all those games with an ankle injury. Point is, Judge rules, but the injuries ruined his MVP chances. Sucks.

Cole will get the most MVP support among Yankees and, as good as he was, I don’t think he had the kind of transcendent pitching season that gets MVP consideration. Verlander threw 251 innings with a 2.40 ERA (2.99 FIP) the year he won MVP. Clayton Kershaw had a 1.77 ERA (1.81 FIP) his MVP year. Cole was amazing, though he's a notch below “pitcher wins MVP” level.

Alcantara and Verlander both finished tenth in the MVP voting last year. I could see Cole finishing in the 6-8 range, and figure Judge is a few spots lower. The only other Yankee with a chance to get down ballot MVP votes is Gleyber Torres and his upside is a tenth place vote from a New York writer. Maybe someone overly reliant on WAR will give Anthony Volpe a vote. I seriously doubt it.

Thanks to Judge and DJ LeMahieu, the Yankees had a top four finisher in the MVP voting every year from 2019-22 (and all but one year from 2017-22). That streak will end this season. Judge got hurt and Cole won’t finish that high in the voting, even with the season he had. It is what it is. Fourth place teams usually don’t fare all that well in the MVP voting.

Ohtani, even with the elbow injury that ended his season early, figures to win his second MVP in three years. Led baseball in WAR (+10.1), led the AL in homers (44), threw 132 innings with a 3.14 ERA. He’s incredible. Corey Seager seems like the favorite to be the runner-up. After him you have Cole, Julio Rodríguez, Marcus Semien, Kyle Tucker, and Yandy Díaz. They all should finish in the top 10 of the voting.

Rookie of the Year

Not-so-fun fact: Rookie-eligible Yankees hit .203/.273/.360 (76 wRC+) in 1,003 plate appearances this year. The majority of those plate appearances (601, to be exact) went to Volpe, who hit a disappointing .209/.283/.383 (84 wRC+) even while going 20/20. Rookie-eligible Yankees had a 4.26 ERA in 206.2 innings. That’s better. Jhony Brito led the group with 90.1 innings.

Here are this year’s rookie-eligible Yankees by WAR:

1. Anthony Volpe: +3.2 WAR (2nd among AL rookies, 6th among MLB rookies)
2. Ian Hamilton: +1.2 WAR (yep, he was rookie-eligible this season)
3. Randy Vásquez: +1.0 WAR
4. Jhony Brito: +0.7 WAR
5. Jasson Domínguez: +0.2 WAR
6. Greg Weissert: +0.2 WAR
7. Austin Wells: +0.1 WAR
8. Yoendrys Gómez: +0.1 WAR
9. Deivi García: +0.0 WAR
10. Oswald Peraza: -0.5 WAR
11. Everson Pereira: -0.6 WAR

Volpe’s +3.2 WAR is all defense. His slash line is textbook replacement level stuff. Voters are much more aware of defense these days, but not enough to overlook the batting line and give Volpe serious Rookie of the Year consideration. There are three spots on the Rookie of the Year ballot and Volpe may get 1-2 third place votes, though I’m not sure he gets even that many.

Gunnar Henderson will appear on every ballot and win Rookie of the Year. The other two ballot spots will be split between Tanner Bibee, Yennier Cano, Triston Casas, Yainer Diaz, and Josh Jung. Japanese players are eligible for Rookie of the Year, though Masataka Yoshida underwhelmed, so much so that he was getting lifted for pinch-hitters late in the season. Henderson will win.

The Yankees haven’t had a player get Rookie of the Year votes since Torres and Miguel Andújar in 2018. I don’t expect that to change this year. I know most Yankees rookies weren’t called up until late in the season, but it’s probably not great that a 28-year-old middle reliever who signed a minor league contract finished second among rookie-eligible Yankees in WAR.

Manager of the Year

Aaron Boone snapped his two-year drought last year and received Manager of the Year votes for the first time since 2020. He got one second and one third place vote, and finished fifth overall. I’m not sure who will win Manager of the Year this year (I guess Orioles skipper Brandon Hyde?), but it won’t be Boone. I know what a Manager of the Year season looks like and it ain’t this.

Comeback Player of the Year

Unless I’m missing someone obvious (very possible), there isn’t a great Comeback Player of the Year candidate in the AL. Cody Bellinger is a lock in the NL, but in the AL? I have no idea. Maybe Tyler Glasnow? He made two starts last September after Tommy John surgery, and this year he threw 120 innings with a 3.53 ERA (2.91 FIP). I guess it could be Seager. He hit “only” .245/.317/.445 (115 wRC+) last year.

For as much as we complained about the home runs last season, Cole isn’t a Comeback Player of the Year candidate. I mean, come on. He had 3.50 ERA (3.47 FIP) in 200.2 innings and led baseball with 257 strikeouts a year ago. Hamilton’s not really a comeback player, right? He’s a regular old breakout player. I don’t see a good Comeback Player of the Year candidate on the Yankees. Onward.

Gold Gloves

The Yankees came into the season with no fewer than five Gold Glove candidates: LeMahieu, Harrison Bader, Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rizzo, and Jose Trevino. Donaldson barely played between getting hurt and getting released. Bader missed a bunch of time with injuries and was then let go on waivers. Rizzo and Trevino played 154 games combined.

LeMahieu won the first ever utility player Gold Glove last year and I don’t see why he wouldn’t be a candidate for it again this year. Here’s his playing time distribution:

LeMahieu really only played 72 innings at second base, huh? That’s eight nine-inning games and he didn’t play the position at all after July 5th. I guess that makes sense though. The need was at third base early in the season and first base late in the season, plus Gleyber’s a one-position guy, so he was the man at second base. Still, only 72 innings? That surprised me.

I’m not even sure who LeMahieu would be up against for the utility Gold Glove. Mauricio Dubón was primarily a second baseman and center fielder, with a handful of innings elsewhere. Willi Castro played six positions (seven if you count pitcher), including at least 200 innings at third base, left field, and center field. There’s always Whit Merrifield. He played nearly 600 innings at second and in left. Seems to me LeMahieu has a chance to win again.

The only other Yankee with a shot at Gold Glove is Volpe. Boone stumped hard for him – “I think he’s a Gold Glover. He’s been that good defensively,” he told Bryan Hoch in early September – and it’s not unreasonable. Here’s what the numbers say:

The numbers, particularly DRS and dWAR, love Volpe’s glove. They think he’s one of the very best defenders in the game. OAA and UZR aren’t quite as bullish, though they agree he’s above average. The eye test agrees. I saw a very good defensive shortstop (one who got better and more comfortable as the season progressed) who was a notch below truly elite at the position.

DRS and OAA are the two most popular defensive stats and, looking at the competition, Volpe might win the Gold Glove by process of elimination. Here are AL shortstops:

DRS
1. Wander Franco, Rays: +16 (they can’t possibly give him an award right now)
2. Anthony Volpe, Yankees: +14
3. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles: +10 (doesn’t have enough innings to qualify for Gold Glove)
4. Trevor Story, Red Sox: +8 (doesn’t have enough innings to qualify for Gold Glove)
5: Jeremy Peña, Astros: +7

OAA
1. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: +14
2. Wander Franco, Rays: +12 (persona non grata)
3. Javier Báez, Tigers: +9
4. Trevor Story, Red Sox: +7 (doesn’t qualify)
5. Anthony Volpe, Yankees: +2

Kinda feels like it’s going to come down to Báez, Peña, Volpe, and Witt. Peña won it last season and Báez had a Gold Glove on his resume too, and reputation matters for this award. There is a statistical component now, but it’s only 25%. The other 75% is voted on by league managers and coaches. A lot of them will look at the ballot and say, “man, Witt had a terrific year, I’m voting for him,” even though it’s supposed to be a defense-only award.

(It should also be noted Volpe’s 17 errors are sixth among all players at all positions, and second to Báez’s 19 among AL shortstops.)

I expect LeMahieu and Volpe to be among the three Gold Glove finalists at their positions, and I think LeMahieu has a better chance to win than Volpe. Volpe’s odds are good though. Are any other Yankees Gold Glove candidates? Maybe Cole? The pitcher Gold Gloves sneak up on you. Jameson Taillon was a finalist last year and I don’t think anyone saw that coming.

Also, there’s a team Gold Glove now, and the Yankees won the AL version last year. This year they rank tenth with +25 DRS (sixth among AL teams) and 12th with +4 OAA (seventh in the AL). The Yankees are third overall and first in the AL with .704 Defensive Efficiency, which in English means they turned 70.4% of balls in play into outs. I don’t think they’ll win the team award again, but who knows with Gold Gloves.

Silver Sluggers

Unlike Gold Gloves, there is no playing time minimum for Silver Sluggers, so Judge is very much eligible to win one. And he will win one, I think. Here are the best hitters in baseball this season (min. 400 plate appearances):

1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels: 180 wRC+
2. Aaron Judge, Yankees: 174 wRC+
3. Ronald Acuña, Braves: 170 wRC+
4. Yordan Alvarez, Astros: 170 wRC+
5. Corey Seager, Rangers: 169 wRC+

The outfield Silver Sluggers are not position-specific. Three right fielders can win it, or two left fielders and one center fielder. Seems pretty clear to me Alvarez, Judge, and Tucker (140 wRC+) should get the three outfield Silver Sluggers in the AL. There’s a big gap between those three and everyone else. Judge should get a Silver Slugger this year. It would be his fourth.

There is a utility Silver Slugger now, but eh, not sure LeMahieu’s .243/.327/.390 (101 wRC+) line will cut it there. He was much better in the second half (128 wRC+) than the first (77 wRC+), but it is a full season award. I don’t think LeMahieu is a serious candidate. Torres is the only other Yankee who deserves Silver Slugger consideration. Here are AL second basemen:

1. Jose Altuve, Astros: 157 wRC+
2. Marcus Semien, Rangers: 124 wRC+
3. Gleyber Torres, Yankees: 122 wRC+
4. Brandon Lowe, Rays: 107 wRC+
5. Andrés Giménez, Guardians: 99 wRC+

Looks like the Silver Slugger is Altuve’s to lose. Injuries limited him to 404 plate appearances, but if we’re gonna say Judge deserves Silver Slugger, we kinda have to say Altuve does too. And, if they don’t give it to Altuve, I would guess Semien and his 29 homers will get it over Gleyber and his 25 homers. Judge should be a Silver Slugger lock. LeMahieu and Torres not so much.

(Like Gold Gloves, there’s a team Silver Slugger award now. The Yankees will not win that lol.)

* * *

Cole has the Cy Young in the bag. Otherwise the only awards the Yankees might bring home are Gold Gloves (LeMahieu, Volpe) and Silver Sluggers (Judge, LeMahieu, Torres). Judge didn’t play enough to get serious MVP consideration and Volpe didn’t hit enough to be part of the Rookie of the Year race. Still, Cole winning the Cy Young is pretty cool. He was the best part of 2023.

3. RAB in the offseason. This is when I usually say the regular Tuesday-Friday format goes out the window in the postseason, and there will be posts as necessary. That typically meant daily posts to go over the previous night’s game and look ahead to the next one. We don’t have to do that this year. There are no postseason games to recap or look forward to, unfortunately.

It will be business as usual around these parts – posts on Tuesday and Friday, with extras for special occasions – though I’m not planning anything in-depth for this Friday and will play it by ear the next few days. I don’t want to write a bunch of stuff for Friday and then have to write a bunch more if something happens (someone gets fired, end-of-season press conferences, etc.). Let’s see what happens the next few days.

I’m not planning a teamwide season review – I did midseason grades in July only because I had the itch, that wasn’t an regular thing – though there are several players I want to hit on and really look at. Those are coming the next few weeks. As for the regular RAB offseason features, here’s what’s in store:

My sense is we’re in for a busy offseason. Then again, I thought that last year too, so what do I know? It just feels like the “run it back” approach has run its course and the Yankees know it, and they’re going to do something about it. Maybe they screw things up further! It’s possible. Either way, I think they’re gonna be pretty active this winter. For now, thanks for reading and for another season of support. I wish things with the Yankees would’ve gone better.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)

Comments

Regarding "the audit," I understand your sentiment, but a true audit with a set deliverable is going to take months. They don't need to be issuing recommendations in advance of the Yankees internal meetings in Tampa next week, they need to be part of those meetings to understand how decisions are made. I've worked with outside consulting firms, such as McKinsey, in my prior corporate jobs, and these are not quick fixes. Sometimes they actually break things worse if they don't truly understand the space. MLB is very insular. I'd love to know who they're hiring and their expertise. Regardless, they're not going to come in and say "fire Boone" (that's for fans), but a true audit could take the entire offseason, and then they have to issue reports and recommendations, and then the Yankees have to act upon them. No way should we want the Yankees to be paralyzed awaiting a report months on. Business as usual, and that's what the consulting firm should be looking at. If we hear a report and recommendations have come back in a month's time, then it's trash. All for show. No substance. Either that, or it was such a narrow and small request that I doubt it will have much impact. They're not making recommendations on who should be the head of baseball ops, or who should manage, or which free agents to sign. They should be looking at how does the Yankees front office operate, how do they make decisions, how do integrate analytics with traditional scouting, how does this compare with other successful organizations, are they focused on the right numbers, do they need to streamline how the information is delivered to players. Based on what I read, I think fans totally misinterpreted what's happening here, and that could be because of Hal's less-than-specific comment. This might be specifically focused on the analytics side. We'll never know the outcome, beyond maybe a few small snippets. This will be proprietary. Good things may come from it, but it won't be immediately obvious. They're not coming in to say "replace Cashman." For all we know, Cashman may have lobbied for an outside view and Hal only recently committed to spending the money. Assume nothing. You won't be disappointed that way.

MikeD

With the Blue Jays and the Rays both already eliminated (a lot of trash talk from two teams that lasted a couple days longer than the Yankees!), the only team I want to see bumped now is the Astros. Not sure I care beyond that who wins. I'll eventually settle on some team. Right now I'm rooting against certain teams.

MikeD

I think they will because King could be one of the five starters on the cheap. They're always looking to save money on one part of the roster so they can spend elsewhere.

MikeD

No hate for Wakefield. Met him at a Yanks/Sox game at Fenway and got to heckle him about game 7 (this was in 04 early season) and he was cool about it. That, and my lifelong obsession with knuckleballs has him marked cool in my book.

Tabasco_Larry

Volpe with a 3.2 WAR? The defense component of WAR needs to be lowered.

DocBob

Hell no, they tanked hard to get where they are. Go (perennial postseason failures) Twins!

DocBob

Rays only drew 19,000 to Game 1 today. Lowest post-season attendance since 1919 (Black Sox WS). That is embarrassing.

Sammy C

I'm rooting for Orioles. They're the only AL East team I'm okay with and I've always had a good time at Camden. I have a bad feeling the Astros will wiggle their way into another pennant, though. Screw the Rangers for collapsing like that. I'm fine with bringing back Montas on a cheap deal.

John G

Yeah makes sense. Hopefully the Yanks braintrust, such as it is, agrees!

I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For

I would say so. Cole, Rodon, King, Schmidt. Even if they bring in another starter, there's room for King. Even if they bring in two starters and make King and Schmidt compete for a spot, King probably wins.

Michael Axisa

Thanks as always Mike. Question though - is there any realistic scenario wherein the Yankees would *not* use King as a SP next year? Meaning, did he 100% sew up his role?

I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For

100% the same.

I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For

Great job all year. Love this site.

Michael Mazzullo

Thanks for another great season Mike. I’ve been reading your content for over a decade now and it is by far the most in-depth and thoughtful sports coverage I’ve seen across any team or sports. RAB 4 Lyfe

Greg Lawrence

Great work this season Michael. Much better than almost all the players. I hope to see lots of changes this off-season. I'm sick of seeing this lot continue to fail and hearing Boone huffing and puffing about how hard they are all working.

Brian

i probably read more RAB than watched actual games this year. the yankees should put you on payroll just for keeping my sorry ass interested in the 2023 team

mike mousalis

As bad as Rodon has pitched, and as much of a baby as he looked like the other night, at least the guy cares. Who else among this listless, entitled bunch gives you even a hint of that? How could Boone slap him down for showing a little fire after spending all season coddling and placating all the other half-assers and malingers on the team? Speaking of which, how was Jogcarlo allowed to sit this whole weekend while Judge, Gleyber, DJ, etc all suited up? According to Boone, he isn't injured. Even Rodon offered to pitch Sunday to help out in the pen. Meanwhile, our $25M DH with the .191 batting average was busy planning his vacation. What a joke.

pkmuldy

Thanks, Mike. Nobody writing about baseball even touches what you're doing. A must read for anyone who cares about the team. Keep banging the drum for the changes we all know have to come, from Cashman down.

pkmuldy

I definitely spent more time reading Mike's post than time spent watching games this year lol

Big Davey88

I second this wholeheartedly.

The WallBreakers

Thanks Mike, even if the Yankees suck your thoughts are always top notch. Can’t wait for the Offseason Plan, my favourite post of the year!

Federico Triulzi

Mike it's been a pleasure reading your posts, and now it's time to add, "all these years". All the best to you.

Kevin Parlato

Mike, thank you for another great year. I looked forward to your posts as much as I didn’t look forward to watching this team in the second half.

Zack

Thanks for everything this season, Mike! Through the loss of a pet, covid, and the Yankees being not great this year, you provided world class coverage. You're the best out there!

Hunter Agett


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