August 17th, 2023: Braves Series, Old Timers’ Day, Mailbag

UPDATE (Aug. 18th): I had to correct something I wrote in the Everson Pereira mailbag question answer. The update is below.

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Reminder: I will be on vacation next week. I’ll have a post Monday morning – I’m going to include mailbag questions in that one, so send ‘em in – and that’ll be it for the week. Even if there’s breaking news, it’ll have to wait, not that I expect there to be any breaking news. The trade deadline has passed and I doubt another coach or Aaron Boone or Brian Cashman will get fired in the middle of August. Things will be back to normal the following week. Thanks for reading and thanks for your support. Here is Friday’s post Thursday afternoon since the Yankees have an off-day. Only four more off-days the rest of the regular season, you know.

1. Swept in Atlanta. There are times throughout the season when you just get your ass kicked. A few weeks ago the Yankees went to Toronto, took three of four, and beat the Blue Jays so bad their manager resorted to complaining about base coaches. It’s a long season and every so often even the best teams get stomped. That’s just baseball.

The series in Atlanta was not just an ass kicking though. It was a reckoning. Three days of the Yankees seeing they are not in fact a championship-caliber team, because the team in the other dugout is what an actual championship-caliber operation looks like. The Braves are better than the Yankees at player development, making trades and signing free agents, allocating payroll, coaching, and basic fundamentals like running the bases. The Braves are better than the Yankees at everything and I don't think that's an exaggeration.

The Yankees were outscored 16-3 in the three games and they didn’t just fail to score in their final 18 innings. They didn’t get a single runner to third base in the last two games. Tuesday night they were held to one hit, made two errors, and grounded into four double plays. The starting pitchers went 2.1 innings, 4 innings, and 3.1 innings in the three games. The Yankees have struck out 93 times in their last nine games, or 27.8% of their plate appearances.

Following Tuesday’s one-hit shutout loss, the Aarons made comments that were more critical of the team than anything I can remember them saying during their time in pinstripes. Reality is setting in and frustration is mounting. The Yankees are going to miss the postseason and it seems they are coming to that realization in the clubhouse.

“We’re not showing up. That’s what it comes down to,” Judge told Greg Joyce after Tuesday’s game. ”We’re not showing up when we need to, especially down the stretch right now. We got every opportunity to keep ourselves in the race. We’re not capitalizing when we need to.”

Boone added (per Joyce): “We’re scuffling our asses off and we need to do better. We need to take some personal pride. It’s not fun getting knocked down and getting beat up, especially when you wear this uniform ... We’re just simply not playing well enough. That starts with me and on down, we gotta be better.”

At 60-61, the Yankees are under .500 this late in the season for the first time since they were 60-61 in 1995. That means we’re in for a weekend of “the 1995 Yankees went on a huge run to make the postseason, why can’t the 2023 Yankees?” commentary from the three different networks broadcasting the three games of the Red Sox series. But we all know they won’t go on a run. This is the third straight season we’re waiting for the Yankees to right the ship and rise to the occasion in the second half, and they’re just not going to do it.

The Yankees are 24-36 – that’s a 65-win pace in a 162-game season – since peaking at 11 games over .500 (36-25) on June 4th. That was the day after Judge crashed into the Dodger Stadium wall. The Yankees are 12-23 since the admittedly arbitrary date of July 4th. Only the Athletics (10-24), Diamondbacks (11-24), and White Sox (11-23) have a worse record since then. The postseason odds are now closer to 0% than 5%.

And you know what bothers me most? The Yankees have tried nothing to get their season back on the rails. No changes at all. Well, no, they did fire their hitting coach at the All-Star break, and they replaced him with someone who had zero coaching experience and isn’t even sure he wants to coach beyond this season. Sean Casey is a freshman undecided on his major, trying a little of everything to see what he likes before making a commitment.

The Yankees have leaned on the same underperforming players since Opening Day, waiting for something to change, and nothing’s changed. Oswald Peraza and either Estevan Florial or Everson Pereira should be in the lineup Friday. Greg Allen and Billy McKinney aren’t the guys holding the Yankees back, but they’re not part of the future either, and the Yankees have reached the point where they need to try something new. The status quo had led them to 60-61.

The Yankees are 6.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot and 9.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot. The new postseason format is the only reason this team’s postseason odds are as “good” as they are. The Yankees are bad – legit bad – and stale, and the worst part is it doesn’t seem to bother them. The higher-ups, I mean. Not the players on the field. It may not look like it, but the players care, and they’re trying. The Braves series was bad and the people running the organization seem way too comfortable with the way things are going.

“Got to (keep the faith). We have a quarter of the season left and we got to keep working to try and figure it out. It’s what we do,” Boone told Gary Phillips after Wednesday’s loss. “I’ve told you, I’m 50 years old. I’ve been in this game my whole life. It doesn’t always go the way you script it or hope, and you got to keep fighting. And that’s what we’ll continue to do.”

2. Old Timers’ Day. Old Timers’ Day is unusually late this season – Saturday, Sept. 9th, before that afternoon’s game against the Brewers – and the Yankees are using it to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the 1998 Yankees, the best team I’ve ever seen. Fittingly, Derek Jeter will make his first Old Timers’ Day appearance. Here is the 2023 Old Timers’ Day roster:

The Yankees are really gonna send Boone out there to get booed into next week, huh. I know he hit one of the most iconic home runs in franchise (really baseball) history, but can no one in this organization read the room? I’ll say it again: I’m willing to be the guy who sits in on meetings and says “that’s a bad idea, don’t do that.” The Yankees lack common sense nowadays.

Unless Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner are gonna march out there side by side with Boone (lol), this is just wrong. No one deserves that level of humiliation. If the Yankees go through with this, I hope they send Boone out first to get it over with, and immediately follow him with O’Neill or someone else guaranteed to turn the boos into loud cheers very quickly. I swear, this team is hellbent on having bad vibes.

Anyway, I know it will be a 1998 Yankees celebration, but geez, that list is short on non-1998 Yankees. Old Timers’ Day regulars like Chris Chambliss, Al Downing, Jason Giambi, and Lee Mazzilli won’t be there. Neither will noted 1998 Yankee Bernie Williams, though I assume that’s a scheduling conflict. He’s been to Yankee Stadium a bunch the last few years. Too bad.

Also, they’re not playing the Old Timers’ Game. They didn’t play it last year either. It will be replaced by a “new question and answer roundtable format in which the former Yankees greats will share memories of their days in pinstripes.” Michael Kay, John Sterling, and Suzyn Waldman will moderate. Last year they replaced the Old Timers’ Game with video tributes.

If I wanted to watch a bunch of former Yankees reminisce about their time in pinstripes, I’d put on a Yankeeography. I want to watch Coney groove fastballs so Matsui and Posada and Strawberry can hit dingers. I want to see Jeter at short, the El Duque leg kick, and 74-year-old Mick the Quick scoot around the outfield. I don’t know who the audience is for a roundtable, but it ain’t me.

There was no Old Timers’ Day in 2020 and 2021 because of the pandemic, and last year’s was watered down. I was hopeful it would be back to normal this year, but no dice. I guess I’ll have to hold out hope for next year. I don’t know why Old Timers’ Day is so late (usually it’s in June or July) or why the Old Timers’ Game won’t be played. Can’t say I’m a fan though.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Bill asks: Any idea how often a guy will appear at all nine defensive positions in a single year? IKF is at seven this year, all but first base and catcher. Since he's the emergency catcher and first base is first base, Boone shouldn't have any trouble accommodating him, if he wants it. It's nothing important, but there isn't much else even slightly interesting about this year.

If the Yankees continue on their current trajectory and are out of postseason contention in late September they should  – nay, must – play Isiah Kiner-Falefa at all nine positions in a game. It’s tricky now with limited September call ups, but it’s doable. He’s the perfect player to do it and It would bring a little levity to the end of an otherwise disappointing season.

Only 10 players are known to have played all nine positions in a single season though it's likely more have done it. Record keeping was spotty in the early days of the sport and outfielders were just “outfielders” for a time in the 1800s, not right or center or left, and players back then moved around much more than they do now. Here are the 10 players known to have played all nine positions in a single season:

• Andrew Romine, 2017 Tigers (played all nine in a single game) (Austin’s brother)
• Jake Elmore, 2013 Astros
• Shane Halter, 2000 Tigers (single game)
• Scott Sheldon, 2000 Rangers (single game)
• José Oquendo, 1988 Cardinals
• César Tovar, 1968 Twins (single game)
• Bert Campaneris, 1965 Athletics (single game)
• Jack Rothrock, 1928 Red Sox
• Gene Paulette, 1918 Cardinals
• Jimmy Walsh, 1911 Phillies

Elmore, Romine, and Sheldon are the only ones to play all nine positions as well as DH in one season. Kiner-Falefa has never DHed with the Yankees, but once the Yankees are fully out of the race, there’s no reason he can’t get a start there just to check off that box.

Hell, the Yankees should let Kiner-Falefa play all nine positions and DH in a single game. They’d have to start him at DH and then forfeit the DH the rest of the game because you can’t move players from the field to DH, but who cares? All nine positions and DH has never been done in a single game. I now want this to happen. I’m invested. Do it, Yankees. Don’t let me down again.

Dave asks: Because the other options to replace Sevy in the rotation aren’t on the 40, who are the guys who need to be added to the 40 this off-season that could be added and pros/cons of adding them now (like having to take guys off 60DL)

There aren’t many pitchers who have to be added to the 40-man after the season. I mean, a lot have to be added, but only a few have to be added, if you know what I mean. Here are the notable minor league pitchers who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason:

• Righties: Clayton Beeter, Carson Coleman (injured), Matt Sauer, Mitch Spence
• Lefties: Edgar Barclay

Beeter is the only lock to be added to the 40-man. Pitching coach Matt Blake mentioned Spence by name when asked about call up candidates – “I think Beeter would be in the conversation. I think Mitch Spence would be in the conversation,” Blake told Gary Phillips earlier this week – and Barclay keeps getting outs. If you’re left-handed and you get outs, someone will give you a look.

Neither Barclay nor Spence is a highly regarded prospect but they figure to have big league utility as depth arms. Spence is 25 and he’s made 32 starts and thrown 171.2 innings at Triple-A the last two years. The Yankees could plug him into the rotation tomorrow, if necessary. Barclay’s more of a bullpen guy, though he can throw 2-3 innings at a time.

Beeter’s someone you call up when you are ready to give a young pitcher a legitimate audition. Spence is more of a “we need innings” guy, but who knows? Maybe he surprises, carves out a role, and sticks around despite not being a top prospect like Shane Greene and Iván Nova. You have to give players a chance to show they’re better than you believe, you know?

The 40-man is in good shape. It’s full right now, though Nestor Cortes can go back on the 60-day injured list, Franchy Cordero and Anthony Misiewicz are easily droppable, and none of the guys currently on the 60-day injured list (there are seven of them) are coming back this year. Opening spots for Beeter and/or Spence and/or Barclay would be a piece of cake.

There’s no 40-man downside to calling up Beeter because he’s going on the 40-man in a few weeks anyway. Will Warren, however, doesn’t have to go on the 40-man until next offseason. Call him up in September and that 40-man spot is tied up earlier than necessary. If the Yankees were in the race and Warren was the best option, then yes, call him up, but circumstances are a little different now. Retaining that little bit of roster flexibility is worthwhile.

I think there’s a good chance we see Beeter in September. Cortes and Domingo Germán aren’t coming back and Luis Severino has been terrible. There’s clearly a need for pitching and there’s no harm in letting him make a few starts down the stretch. It’s a good opportunity to expose him to the highest level, learn what he needs to improve, and then go work on it in the offseason (this also applies to Everson Pereira).

Kevin asks: I get the argument of Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge being in their prime but doesn't retooling a bit next year seem like a better option? Obviously free agents are no guarantee but going after Juan Soto and Munetaka Murakami, who will both be 26 when they start their contracts, the next two years is better than giving Cody Bellinger a ton of money or trading prospects for an imperfect solution this winter. Two years from now theoretically Dominguez and a lot of their pitching prospects will be ready, and we'll have a season of seeing what Peraza is capable of or if Volpe is any good. It'll be easier to fill the team with cheaper talent around the big contracts in 2025. Feels short sighted to compound the mistakes they've made with this depleted Free Agent crop instead of being patient to (potentially) get themselves out of this mess faster.

Retooling does seem like a better option, though I’d argue Major League free agents (even in a poor free agent class like this winter’s) are less risky than counting on Jasson Domínguez and Oswald Peraza and a bunch of pitching prospects to pan out. I wanted the Yankees to sign a shortstop not because I didn’t like Anthony Volpe, but because Volpe’s prime doesn’t line up with Cole’s and Judge’s. How long will it take Domínguez to settle in as an above-average player?

Let’s be real here, as bad as the Yankees have been this season (and especially lately), they could go to the postseason next year. They’ve got two superstars, some good complementary players, and there are 12 postseason spots. Reinforce the roster wisely (something they have failed to do in recent years, of course) and they can absolutely challenge for a postseason spot next season. They could do it without blocking Domínguez, et al, and without taking themselves out of the running for Soto and Murakami* down the line.

I don’t think it's an either/or. I think the Yankees can retool while still competing with Cole and Judge at the height of their powers. The real question is can Brian Cashman and this front office pull it off? I’ve lost confidence in them. And, of course, if the Yankees do decide to treat 2024 as a retool year without prioritizing contention, can the front office pull that off? I’d rather they try to compete in 2024. Taking a short step back with an eye on 2025 has too many unknowns.

* Murakami’s have a down season, by the way. His .256/.373/.488 line isn’t bad, though the guy hit .318/.458/.711 last year. His .860 OPS is his worst since he was a 19-year-old in 2019.

Michael asks: In last Monday's post you mentioned Tony Kemp as a poor man's Brett Gardner. At this point, do you think dusting off actual Brett Gardner would result in better production than what the Yankees have been rolling out in LF? If so, what prevents a reunion, assuming Gardner has stayed in baseball shape? Gardner's pride? Cashman's pride? The appearance of desperation?

You know, left field hasn’t been that bad lately, mostly because Isiah Kiner-Falefa has played well the last few months and Billy McKinney has played well more recently. Since June 1st, Yankees left fielders are hitting .243/.335/.461 (120 wRC+). I kid you not. For the season, the left fielders are at .233/.313/.412 (100 wRC+). The MLB average at the position is .252/.329/.417 (104 wRC+). Left field defense has obviously been a major problem though.

To answer the question, no, I don’t think Gardner would outperform the current left field situation, and I felt that way even before this recent left field hot streak. Gardner, 40 next week, hit .222/.327/.362 (93 wRC+) in his final season, remember. That includes .212/.321/.380 (95 wRC+) against righties. He wasn’t even a good platoon option at the end. I could buy Gardner being a better defender than most of the guys the Yankees have run out there though.

As for what’s standing in the way of a reunion, I think it’s just that the guys the Yankees have now are better options than soon-to-be 40-year-old Gardner. Gardy rules, but he was clearly nearing the end of the line in 2021. He reportedly wanted to continue playing, it was essentially a forced retirement, though lots of guys get forced into retirement. After nearly two years of retirement, maybe he’s happy at home and isn’t interested in playing again.

Ray asks: Who says no? Andrew Benintendi for LeMahieu and prospect in the 20-30 range to compensate for the age difference? Weird I know but the (bad and indifferent) Yankees need a left handed left fielder and the White Sox seem to be … not well run.

DJ LeMahieu says no. His 10-and-5 no-trade protection kicks in after this season – the trade deadline was the last chance to move him without his permission – and I can’t imagine he would okay a trade to the dysfunctional White Sox. The Yankees aren’t exactly a well-run operation at the moment, but they’re not the White Sox either. I’d reject a trade to the ChiSox too.

As for the hypothetical trade, I think the Yankees would say no? The Yankees would get the much younger player who fills a pressing roster need, though they would take on the longer contract (Benintendi is signed through 2027, LeMahieu through 2026) and have to give up a prospect in the Anthony Hall/Agustin Ramirez range. The White Sox get the older player, but they also get the money off the books sooner and add a prospect as well.

Neither guy has been great this season – LeMahieu is at 92 wRC+ and +0.5 WAR, Benintendi is at 91 wRC+ and +0.6 WAR – though the 29-year-old Benintendi is more likely to bounce back in the future than the 35-year-old LeMahieu. Benintendi’s performance has to worry you in Year 1 of a five-year contract though, right? What’s his 2027 outlook? (The Yankees did have interest in re-signing Benintendi, though they reportedly would only go four years max.)

That said, who cares about 2027? The Yankees want to win in the short-term, before Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge age out as elite players. The money is a wash*, the Yankees would get a much younger player who fills a need, and clear the infield logjam as well. Maybe they do it after all. This might be one that makes sense for both sides. But again, LeMahieu has veto power, and I’m not sure he’s eager to join the White Sox at this point in his career.

* It’s not, actually. Benintendi’s contract is frontloaded. He’s owed $64M from 2024-27, or $16M a year. Slightly more than the $15M average annual value of his five-year, $75M contract. Trading LeMahieu’s $15M luxury tax hit for Benintendi’s $16M luxury tax would add money to the books, though not a ton.

Vinny asks: When is the earliest they can call up Pereira and not lose his rookie eligibility? Assuming they’re just waiting for rosters to expand.

This Saturday, Aug. 19th. Call Everson Pereira up that day and he will finish the season with 44 days of service time, one fewer than the 45-day rookie threshold. He would also have to finish the season with 130 at-bats or fewer to retain rookie eligibility next season. The benefit to doing that is keeping Pereira eligible for a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick in the future.

To be clear, that Aug. 19th date has no bearing on arbitration or free agency or anything like that. Pereira and every other player who has never been in the big leagues has already been in the minors plenty long enough this season to push back free agency and Super Two status. Waiting until Aug. 19th is about retaining rookie and PPI pick eligibility. Nothing more.

UPDATE: I misread the rookie eligibility rules. Players lose rookie eligibility when they exceed 45 days of service time, not when they reach 45 days of service time. So today, Aug. 18th, is the earliest the Yankees can call up Pereira and keep his rookie eligibility intact for next season. A few top prospects have already been called up today (Cardinals and Masyn Winn, Angels and Noah Schanuel) and this is why. They will still be rookie eligible next year. My bad.

Bob asks: It seems to me that the Yankees have given up an inordinate amount of infield singles this year. Do you have any stats on that?

Yankees batters have 95 infield hits this year, fourth fewest in baseball. That’s not a surprise, is it? The Yankees are the slowest team in the league. On the pitching side, the Yankees have allowed 109 infield hits this year, the 16th most in baseball. Middle of the pack.

Gerrit Cole (13) and Clarke Schmidt (11) lead the Yankees in infield hits allowed. That’s because they lead the Yankees in innings, not because they’re especially prone to infield hits. Poor Nick Ramirez is third on that list though. He’s allowed nine infield hits in only 33.2 innings. The MLB leader in infield hits allowed is Alex Cobb at 22. Only a few others have allowed even 18.

The Yankees are very good at turning ground balls into outs. They’ve allowed a .209 BABIP on grounders, the lowest in baseball and well below the .244 league average. That’s all ground balls, including hard-hit grounders that go through the hole. Look how the Yankees have fared turning weak grounders at different exit velocities into outs though:

• Sub-70 mph: .120 BABIP (MLB average: .128)
• Sub-60 mph: .205 BABIP (MLB average: .159)
• Sub-50 mph: .235 BABIP (MLB average: .166)

The weaker the ground ball, the harder it is to turn it into an out. That’s true both league-wide and with the Yankees, though the Yankees allow more hits on weak grounders than the rest of the league. The Yankees have allowed the sixth most sub-70 mph grounders, the 13th most sub-60 mph grounders, and the fourth most sub-50 mph grounders. They generate a lot of weak contact on the ground and weak grounders can become infield hits.

Do the Yankees allow an inordinate number of infield hits? No, not really. They’re firmly in the middle of the pack among the 30 teams. Considering how many weak ground balls their sinker heavy pitching staff generates, I’m surprised the Yankees don’t allow more infield singles.

Chris asks: Morale is low, but with the news that Boone is likely to be scapegoated (not undeservingly so), I’m starting to think about the next Manager era. Who would be your strongest candidates? Could you envision Craig Counsell leaving Milwaukee? He’s in his final contract year, but from reading a little, it sounds like he is well-compensated and laid roots in the Midwest.

Counsell is widely regarded as one of the best managers in the game. I haven’t watched enough Brewers baseball over the years to have an informed opinion about him as an in-game manager, but everyone says he’s very good, so who am I to argue. FanGraphs preseason projections go back to 2016, the year after Counsell was hired, and Milwaukee has beat their projection every year except 2020 and 2022, and 2020 was a fake season.

This is the final year on Counsell’s contract and the Brewers offered him an extension in Spring Training, but he turned it down and has been noncommittal about his future. He’s a local guy who grew up in Milwaukee, so he’s got a great setup, though he’s expressed an interest in spending more time with his family. Maybe that’s just a negotiating ploy though.

“I don’t know if there’s really much to add. I’m not trying to dodge. I just don’t think anything has changed. We’ll talk about it at the appropriate time. We love him here. I think it’s still status quo,” GM Matt Arnold told Adam McCalvy about Counsell’s future last month. “... If we end up working something out, great. If not, we’re going to have to play games in March and April. I love him to death. I just don’t know if there’s anything to add. He’s been great.”

It’s no secret Steve Cohen covets David Stearns, who led the Brewers’ baseball operations from 2016-22 before stepping down over the winter and moving into an advisory role for 2023, the final season on his contract. It’s expected Cohen will throw a big bag of money at Stearns, and it has been speculated Stearns will then hire Counsell to manage. Sounds plausible, no?

As for the Yankees, I would think Counsell will be at or near the top of their list of candidates if they do move on from Aaron Boone. Counsell will be a free agent and they would have to at least bring him in for an interview. If nothing else, Counsell will want to interview to use the Yankees as leverage against the Brewers and Mets and whatever other teams come after him.

The Yankees have a thing for inexperienced coaches and managers. Everyone on staff except bullpen coach Mike Harkey and third base coach Luis Rojas was hired with no prior big league coaching experience. That goes back to previous hitting coaches Marcus Thomas and Dillon Lawson too. Part of me thinks the Yankees are doing this because rookie coaches are cheaper than veterans, though it’s also possible they were trying to be the smartest team in the room and hiring the next great coaches.

Anyway, replacing Boone with another rookie manager seems unlikely. Firing him would be an admission the whole rookie manager thing didn’t work. Doesn’t mean they can’t hire another rookie manager down the road, but it’s hard to see them following Boone with another rookie. His replacement will have experience, so Counsell fits. Based on his reputation, it seems like he would be a great hire. Whether Counsell’s really open to joining the Yankees or any team other than the Brewers is another matter.

Matt asks: How much do you think the Yankees have benefited from the new, balanced schedule this year in their pursuit of keeping the consecutive seasons over .500 streak alive? It seems that the schedule change has been kind to them, so they have less of the AL East and replace it with lesser competition. Seeing that they are only 2 games over .500 (60-58) at the time of this email, I can’t help but wonder if their recent might be a couple games worse if not for the change this season.

I hadn’t considered this. The Yankees are 15-21 (.417) against the AL East and 45-40 (.529) against everyone else this year, so yeah, I’d say the new schedule has helped. The new schedule includes 13 games against each division rival, not 19, so that’s 24 fewer games against AL East teams this year. Some quick math using those winning percentages:

• 52 AL East games and 110 non-AL East games (new schedule): 80-82 pace
• 76 AL East games and 86 non-AL East games (old schedule): 77-85 pace

Assuming the .417 AL East winning percentage and .529 non-AL East winning percentage is the Yankees’ true talent level and they continue at those paces, the difference between last year’s schedule and this year’s schedule is three wins. That’s pretty significant! Significant enough that it may keep the winning season streak alive. If the Yankees win, say, 82-84 games, we’d have to say the new schedule was a factor, absolutely.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)