July 31st, 2023: Judge, Cole, Kiner-Falefa, Trade Deadline

The trade deadline is a day away and the Yankees begin a series Monday night against the Rays at Yankee Stadium. I assumed the series was at Tropicana Field because, you know, teams go on road trips after homestands, but nope. It’s in the Bronx. The Yankees played five games at home, then three in Baltimore, and now they’re back home for another seven games. Huh. Anyway, here is Tuesday’s regular post on Monday so I can spread the trade deadline workload out a bit, and also chime in on a few things before they become irrelevant. There will of course be a trade deadline recap post, likely sometime Wednesday but I reserve the right to push it to Thursday if the Yankees are very active.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees are 1-5-2 in their last six series and that series win came against a Royals team on pace to lose 114 games. They have a +41 run differential against the Athletics and Royals and a -32 run differential against everyone else. The Yankees look like a team that is trying to flip the switch but doesn’t know how, which is exactly what they looked like down the stretch in 2022, 2021, and also 2020. Baseball is a flat circle. A few thoughts on the last few days.

The Captain returns

The king is back. I was worried the lack of a proper rehab assignment meant we would spend the next two weeks watching Aaron Judge try to find his timing, but nope. The captain drew three walks in his return Friday night, then went 3-for-4 with a 442-foot bomb to dead center Saturday (video). The guy missed close to two months, played all of two simulated games, then reached base six times in nine plate appearances against a first place team. What a legend.

“I felt alright. I think I was a little jumpy to begin with,” Judge told Bryan Hoch following Friday’s game. “After my second at-bat, swinging at a high fastball, I told myself to take it easy a little bit. Just put a good at-bat out there, and if you have a good pitch to hit, take your swing.”

Judge did not start Sunday’s game and Aaron Boone said the plan is to play him 9-10 times during this 13 games in 13 days stretch, which suggests a two days on, one day off schedule. On one hand, it’s frustrating, because the offense stinks without Judge and the Yankees had a chance to win a series in the middle of a postseason race, yet they sat their best player. I really thought Judge was going to play Sunday after coming out of Saturday’s game early.

On the other hand, Judge is playing through a major injury. He probably wouldn’t (shouldn’t?) be playing if the Yankees had a huge lead or were far out of the race and playing lower stakes games. They’re desperate though, and Judge and the Yankees are taking a risk as it is, and having him two out of every three days these first two weeks is better than having him no days.

“As much as I want him in there, we’ve got to be smart,” Boone told Hoch. “... We've gotten the benefit of Aaron Judge the last two days, when maybe normally that would have been done in Somerset or somewhere else.”

Judge looked like he was in midseason form at the plate and I didn’t see him favoring the toe on the bases or in the field. Statcast’s sprint speed, which essentially measures a player’s top speed once underway, is a surprisingly useful indicator of health and overall athleticism. Starling Marte’s sprint speed percentiles suggested a decline was coming, for example:

Judge’s average sprint speed has hovered in the 27.0 feet-per-second range the last few years, which is the league average and good for such a big guy. Before the toe injury, Judge had a 26.9 ft/s average sprint speed this year. Statcast has recorded five individual sprint speeds since Judge returned. In chronological order: 21.3 ft/s, 23.2 ft/s, 21.9 ft/s, 21.8 ft/s, and 23.2 ft/s. It may look like Judge is running fine, but he’s definitely being careful on that toe.

I am as down on the 2023 Yankees as anyone but I sometimes think I walk among the crazies with some of the reactions I saw to Judge sitting Sunday. It’s the end of July, not the end of September. There is still a lot – A LOT – of season remaining and these games, while important, aren’t must-wins. It is not worth pushing Judge on his torn toe ligament on July 30th in Year 1 of his nine-year contract. It’s a bummer when he’s not in the lineup and there will be a time to put the pedal on the floor, but the Yankees aren’t there yet.

“I understand it. I’m not happy about it,” Judge told Hoch about sitting Sunday. “That’s a discussion we’ll have on our own. We’ll see the schedule we come up with and go from there.”

The Yankees are as healthy as they’re going to get on the position player side. We’re not waiting for anyone else to come off the injured list and, realistically, the Yankees can only do so much at the trade deadline. This is it, and “it” involves Judge playing through pain. He’s gonna sit more than we like. That’s just the reality of the situation. At least Judge stepped right back into the lineup and didn’t miss a beat. He looked great at the plate in Baltimore.

Cole as good as ever

The East Coast Angels were on full display Friday. Judge reached base three times in his return and Gerrit Cole dominated, but the supporting cast didn’t pull their weight, so the Yankees lost despite the strong play of their two all-world stars. We’ve seen it before and I’m sure we will see it again. Cole was marvelous though. Seven shutout innings and he did not allow a single runner to make it to third base.

“Man, he’s been so good,” Boone told Mark Sanchez after Friday’s game.

A few weeks ago I noted Cole is evolving as a pitcher. He’s using his fastball more, particularly when ahead in the count, which has led to fewer strikeouts (still 27.3% though) but also less dangerous contact. Cole’s getting more weak pop ups and fly balls, and missing more barrels in general. He can still overpower hitters when necessary. He just doesn’t need to as often.

Two weeks ago I offhandedly mentioned Clarke Schmidt is one of the few players on the roster I feel better about today than I did on Opening Day. Cole is one of them too, and I felt really good about him on Opening Day. He’s in total control every start. His stuff is obviously very good, though his execution is top notch as well, and so is his ability to turn the page. We saw some tough breaks snowball on him last year.

When the Yankees signed Cole, I said he struck me as a candidate to age well because, among other things, he’d already shown the ability to adapt and make adjustments. He’s done it this year and he’s as good as he’s ever been. You never really know with pitcher health, but as long as he stays healthy, it sure seems like Cole will age gracefully. What a stud.

IKF’s big night

Since May 16th, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is hitting .301/.373/.474 (135 wRC+) in 153 plate appearances, and that coincides perfectly with his most recent leg kick changes. He was outstanding Saturday. A recap of his night:

• Second inning: 1-2 count to a 10-pitch walk.
• Third inning: Second pitch ground out.
• Fifth inning: Seven-pitch walk.
• Sixth inning: 0-2 count to a 10-pitch at-bat, bases-clearing double (video).
• Ninth inning: 0-2 count to a seven-pitch strikeout.

The three-run double to break the game open is obviously the headliner, but, other than that third inning ground out, every at-bat was a battle. Kiner-Falefa saw 36 pitches, his most in a game in his career (by five!), and he fouled away 10 pitches with two strikes. That is also a career high and tied for the fourth most by a Yankee in the Statcast era (since 2015):

1. Gary Sánchez: 13 two-strike fouls (Aug. 11th, 2012 vs. Braves)
2. Gary Sánchez: 11 (Sept. 6th, 2019 vs. Red Sox)
3. Anthony Rizzo: 11 (June 23rd, 2022 vs. Astros)
4. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 10 (July 29th, 2023 vs. Orioles)
5. Marwin Gonzalez: 10 (July 14th, 2022 vs. Reds)

“(The three-run double) was a big time moment for me,” Kiner-Falefa told Sanchez. “... I haven’t been playing much, so I was just trying to see as many pitches as I can, and after the first at-bat I felt pretty locked in for the whole day.”

This begs the question: should Kiner-Falefa play more? The left field situation is a mess, though Kiner-Falefa has contributed to that mess, and there is a chicken or the egg thing going on here. Does Kiner-Falefa deserve to play more because he’s hitting well, or is he hitting well because he’s being used in moderation and this is how you get the most out of him? I dunno.

I’m inclined to believe this is the right amount of Kiner-Falefa. We’ve seen him as an everyday player and it wasn’t great, and I’d rather not revisit. There is for sure a chance things are finally clicking for Kiner-Falefa, who is still only 28 and in his physical prime. For now, I just want to give him props for a monster game Saturday and a great two and a half months.

Miscellany

Nestor Cortes will return sometime next week and who he should replace in the rotation depends whether Domingo Germán or Luis Severino started most recently. Germán has stunk lately and Severino has somehow been worse. Six runs in the first six batters Sunday – it was the first time the Yankees allowed six runs before recording an out since Aug. 19th, 1997 – and 50 runs in his last 10 starts and 46.1 innings. At this point Severino needs to go to the bullpen when Nestor returns, at least until we see Germán make his next start. It’s difficult to string together wins with these two making 40% of your starts … I am not ready to say DJ LeMahieu is capital-B Back, but he looks as close to being back as he has at any point in the last two months. He is 14-for-43 (.326) with 10 walks (.453 OBP) and nine strikeouts since the All-Star break, and his at-bats in general look a lot better. Is it time to put LeMahieu back in the leadoff spot and bump Gleyber Torres down into a more traditional RBI spot? I think it might be … Tommy Kahnle has a great changeup, but he was too predictable Friday and got burned. Eight pitches, eight changeups. Never once showed the Orioles a fastball. Anthony Santander sat on the changeup and went down to get it for his walk-off homer. This isn’t a terrible location …

… but when the hitter can safely assume a changeup’s coming, it’s easier for him to wait back and reach down to scoop that pitch into the seats. Kahnle has thrown close to 70% changeups this year. During his 2018-19 heyday, it was closer to 50% changeups. Gotta mix in a few more heaters, Mr. Tightpants … And finally, Ron Marinaccio went nine up, eight down Sunday. He struck out four and got seven misses on 15 swings. It was the best he’s looked in a month (though his velocity was still down). Hopefully that game is a sign Marinaccio is coming around and not just a random blip with a lopsided score.

2. Trade deadline latest. The trade deadline is 6pm ET Tuesday and there was a bona fide blockbuster over the weekend: Max Scherzer is a Texas Ranger. The Mets ate a ton of money (about $35M) to make it happen and netted a prospect (Luisangel Acuña, Ronald’s kid brother) roughly equivalent to Oswald Peraza. Nice trade for both teams, I’d say.

Old buddy Jordan Montgomery joined Scherzer in Texas – the Rangers are really going for it, eh? good for them – which means there’s a chance a postseason game (or series!) is decided by a Montgomery vs. Harrison Bader matchup. An extremely small chance, but a chance nonetheless. Given Bader’s numbers against lefties, I’d take it. Gotta get there first though.

Things remain quiet around the Yankees. They’re 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and they’re obviously going to buy, but the question is how aggressively? We’re going to find out within the next 36 hours. A left fielder is the top priority, though the Yankees could also use a lefty corner infield bat and pitching depth (because every team could use more pitching depth).

“(Brian Cashman) gave me a little overview. They’re in the war room fielding all these calls,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce about the deadline over the weekend. “Things build, things go away, but until something’s imminent – like, ‘This might be a reality’ – we got (games) to worry about. We have the Orioles and trying to get a victory.”

I had hoped to avoid putting something in the Content Graveyard by running this post Monday instead of Tuesday, but no luck. I wrote a quick thing on the Yankees’ interest in Jordan Hicks before he got traded to the Blue Jays, so that’s in there now. The Yankees still have six games remaining with Toronto, a team they’re chasing for a Wild Card spot. Hicks and his 104 mph sinker against this lineup will not be fun, will it?

Anyway, what will the Yankees do before the deadline? Beats me, but they’ll do something. I have a hard time believing Wednesday’s roster will look exactly the same as today’s roster. Here’s the latest on the trade rumor circuit, which ain’t a whole lot as far as the Yankees are concerned.

Cubs pull Bellinger off the market

According to Jesse Rogers, the Cubs have pulled Cody Bellinger off the trade market now that they’re back in the postseason race. Chicago had an eight-game winning streak snapped Sunday – it was their longest winning streak since an 11-gamer in 2016 – and they’re only 3.5 games out in the winnable NL Central. They’re gonna buy instead, with bullpen help a priority.

Here’s my Scouting The Market post on Bellinger. He’s having a monster July – .413/.447/.717 (209 wRC+) with eight homers entering Sunday – and his value is at its absolute peak. Even as a rental, it would have taken a good prospect package to get him, especially in this seller’s market. Bellinger definitely would have helped the Yankees. Would it have been worth giving up those prospects to help this team though? You know where I stand.

Angels get Grichuk (and Cron)

Bellinger is off the market and so too is Randal Grichuk. He was traded to the Angels along with C.J. Cron on Sunday night, the team announced. The Rockies received two pitching prospects roughly equivalent to Justin Lange and Juan Carela. Two lower minors lottery ticket arms more touted upper level guys. The price for rental bats remain low.

The Angels are keeping Shohei Ohtani and they doubled down by adding Lucas Giolito last week. They have been hammered by position player injuries and need offense. Look at this injury list:

• OF Jo Adell (oblique strain)
• IF Brandon Drury (shoulder contusion)
• C Logan O’Hoppe (shoulder surgery)
• 3B Anthony Rendon (shin bone bruise)
• C Max Stassi (hip strain)
• OF Mike Trout (hamate surgery)
• OF Taylor Ward (facial fractures)
• IF Gio Urshela (broken pelvis)

That’s their top two catchers, three regular infielders, one everyday outfielder, their top Triple-A outfielder, and best player of this generation. Drury will start a rehab assignment next week and could return fairly soon. No one else is particularly close though, so yeah, the Angels needed bats for their postseason push. Grichuk and Cron were both originally drafted by the Angels too. Neat.

The Yankees had been connected to Grichuk in recent days, and while the bar in left field is on the floor, he only barely clears it. He hit .247/.289/.441 (90 wRC+) from 2020-22 and his defense has slipped significantly this year. The Yankees are currently playing two kids in a trench coach in left field, so Grichuk would have helped, but meh. Can’t say I’m broken up about missing out.

With Bellinger and Grichuk off the market, the best outfield trade candidates are Mark Canha, Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, and various Cardinals. I will be very surprised if the Yankees walk away from the deadline without an outfielder. It might just be a Grichuk type rather than a needle-mover, but the current left field situation is untenable. They kicked the can down the road far enough.

Marlins still want Gleyber

The Marlins remain interested in Gleyber Torres, reports Randy Miller. They wanted him at last year’s trade deadline (surely you remember their Torres and Oswald Peraza for Pablo López and Miguel Rojas proposal) and Miami does stand out as a potential landing spot for Torres. They can put Gleyber at second and move Luis Arraez to first, his best position defensively.

Miller says the Yankees have set a very asking price for Gleyber. They supposedly want righty Edward Cabrera, lefty Braxton Garrett, and two unnamed prospects. That’s a big ask, but it is a seller’s market, and the Marlins just gave up a really good prospect for rental David Robertson*. You’re never gonna get Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano if you don’t ask!

* The two New York teams selling to the Marlins would be high comedy.

Miami is said to want rotation help and Cabrera, a control-challenged hard-thrower, and Garrett, a low velocity sinkerballer, are currently in their rotation. Subtracting two starters to add a second baseman seems unlikely, though perhaps the deal could be expanded to include, say, Domingo Germán or Luis Severino. Or maybe Germán and Severino. Who knows?

For the Yankees, a Torres trade would (finally) open an everyday lineup spot for Oswald Peraza, though it would also take away their second best hitter at a time when they need all the offense they can get. Trading Gleyber for controllable pitching would be a) perfectly reasonable, and b) a clear sign the Yankees are prioritizing 2024 and beyond more than 2023.

Assuming this report is true, the huge ask leads me to believe the Yankees are not eager to trade Torres right now. Blow them away with a big offer and sure, they’ll take it, but they’re not going to give him away just to clear a spot for Peraza. Bottom line, the Yankees are still in the race and trading Torres hurts a lot in the short-term even if it could help in the long-term.

Padres listening on Soto (and Hader and Snell)

The 52-54 Padres are at least willing to listen to offers for Juan Soto, reports Jon Heyman. The same goes for Josh Hader and Blake Snell. Hader and Snell are rentals. Soto will remain under team control next season. I am against the 2023 Yankees trading good prospects for rentals, so I’m a no on Hader and Snell. Soto’s a different animal. He’s exactly what the Yankees need.

I don’t want to spend too much time on this because we all know Soto rules, and also because I don’t think he’s actually obtainable. San Diego’s entire core is locked up and in its prime, so they will try to contend next year, and subtracting Soto makes them worse. This strikes me as a “go ahead and make us an offer, but you’ll have to blow us away to get him” situation. I’d love Soto and would trade anyone in the system to get him. I just don’t see this as particularly realistic.

Yankees asked about Ohtani

From the no duh department: Andy Martino reports the Yankees asked about Ohtani before the Angels pulled him off the market last week. The Yankees wanted Ohtani when he first came over from Japan and they made a “serious offer” for him at the deadline last summer. Why wouldn’t they check in again this year? We’ll do this all again in the offseason, I’m sure.

Calhoun designated for assignment

Gonna wrap up with a quick roster note: Willie Calhoun was activated off the 10-day injured list and designated for assignment Friday. He performed okay with the Yankees, mostly by hitting .256/.324/.432 (108 wRC+) against righties, but Jake Bauers is a better hitter and Billy McKinney is a better defender, so they stay and Calhoun goes. Between the Calhoun DFA and Jose Trevino being a 60-day injured list candidate, the Yankees have the two open 40-man roster spots they’ll need for Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loáisiga (pending trade deadline activity).

I think there’s a small (but not zero) chance the Yankees trade Calhoun before Tuesday’s deadline. The Brewers stand out as a DH-needy contender, maybe the Marlins too if they’re willing to put Jorge Soler in the outfield. The return would be negligible (DFA’d players only fetch so much) but maybe Calhoun gets traded rather than lost for nothing on waivers or as a free agent after he’s released. Either way, it’s been real, Willie. I’ll remember you for Immaculate Grid.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)