July 24th, 2023: Royals Series, Trevino, Trade Deadline

The Yankees are 3-0 in the Starr Insurance jersey patch era. That’s analytics, baby. This is their first three-game winning streak since a four-gamer at the end of May. That was the last two games of the Padres series and the first two games of the Mariners series in Seattle. It was so long ago that Nestor Cortes and Ryan Weber pitched in the fourth of the four wins. Anyway, here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon since the Yankees have an off-day.

1. A Royal sweep. Well, at least we know the Yankees are better than the Royals. That the weekend sweep was the Yankees’ first series win since taking two of three from the Athletics (the other worst team in baseball) last month tells you all you need to know about the last few weeks. It was good to see the Yankees go out and sweep a team they’re supposed to sweep.

“It’s no secret we’ve been struggling,” Aaron Boone told Mark Sanchez following Sunday’s win. “... We still got a long way to go. We feel like we have a chance to be a really good team. We’re incomplete without question, but we do feel like there’s some things on the horizon that are going to fortify us.”

Also, Anthony Rizzo hit a home run (video)! His first homer since May 20th was a short porch job – Statcast says it would not have been a homer in any other park – but who cares. Whatever it takes to build confidence and get Rizzo on track. He was so desperate to right the ship that he ditched his batting gloves for two at-bats Saturday and changed his walk up music Sunday. Those are classic “I’ll try anything at this point” moves.

“To see him get going the way he did today, it means a lot to us,” Harrison Bader told Bryan Hoch about Rizzo’s big game Sunday. “We pull for each other. We support him. We support everybody. It’s a big day. More important than the results are how he’s been battling through it, staying positive, staying focused. It’s awesome to see him pop one.”

Rizzo went 4-for-4 with the homer Sunday, DJ LeMahieu (14-for-45 in his last 12 games) and Giancarlo Stanton (six homers in his last 11 games) are showing signs of life, Luis Severino had his second straight good start (minus the final batter homer), and Gleyber Torres continues to be the Yankees’ best healthy player. He’s hitting .325/.357/.532 (143 wRC+) in July. There are good signs and positive trends here.

(Hopefully Gleyber’s hip tightness is nothing serious. He said he was fine following Sunday’s game, but we’ll see. With another off-day coming Thursday, it wouldn’t be out of character for the Yankees to play it safe and hold Torres out until Friday.)

As for Aaron Judge, he faced Jonathan Loáisiga in live batting practice Sunday, so that’s double good news. Judge faced live pitching and Loáisiga faced live hitters. Still no timetable for the captain, who has a few more hurdles to clear, but he continues to make progress. Same with Loáisiga. He has been missed in the bullpen. Nestor Cortes made a rehab start Sunday too (video). Guys who weren’t hitting are starting to hit and guys who are hurt are starting to get healthy.

“It’s not going to be pain-free, but we’ll just get as close to manageable as we can,” Judge told Hoch about his toe.

All in all, a good weekend for the Yankees, even though all three games were closer than you’d like (going from an early 5-0 lead to a 5-3 nail-biter late Sunday was particularly annoying). One series shouldn’t drastically change your outlook on any team. Take it for what it is: a good series against a bad team by a team that has had too many bad series against bad teams lately.

The schedule toughens up now – Mets, Orioles, Rays, Astros are next up – so we’ll get a better read on the Yankees soon. Those are essentially must-win series too. When you lose series to bad teams (Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, etc.), you back yourself into a corner and have to beat good teams. The Royals series needs to be the start of something, not just a random good series against a bad team, like the A’s series last month.

“A lot of great at-bats, a lot of tough outs, and that’s what builds games like this,” Stanton told Peter Sblendorio on Sunday. “That’s what builds three, four, five, six-run games. We’ve got to keep it going.”

2. Trevino’s injury and the catching situation. We now know why Kyle Higashioka had been getting more starts behind the plate. Jose Trevino has a torn triangular fibrocartilage complex ligament in his right wrist and needs season-ending surgery. It typically comes with a 12-week recovery, so Trevino should be ready for the start of Spring Training.

“I knew what I was getting myself into. I knew at some point that it was going to come to a point where I couldn’t take the pain anymore,” Trevino told Bryan Hoch. “I will say, the training staff and strength coaches did everything they could to get me right every time I was out on the field. It’s just tough to play through that kind of stuff.”

Trevino said he’s been playing with discomfort since Spring Training (I assume this is when he first hurt it) and it got to the point where they couldn’t manage the pain anymore. Playing hurt is admirable but so rarely worth it. These guys are all wired that way, I know that, but three-plus months with a wrist injury? Really? Feels like Trevino and the Yankees should have pulled the plug weeks ago.

“It’s very frustrating. I want to be out there,” Trevino told Hoch. “I want to play, I love to play, I love to catch, I love to wear the pinstripes. There’s nothing more I want to do than go out there and play, but at this point I’m not helping anybody.”

Trevino will remain with the Yankees rather than rehab in Tampa, and he’ll essentially serve as an extra coach. “I plan on sticking around for whatever they need me for. I just don’t want to take up space, but I’ll be around for the pitchers, the hitters, whatever they need,” he told Laura Albanese. That’s good. Trevino can still help a great deal with game planning and whatnot.

Ben Rortvedt started behind the plate for Triple-A Scranton on Thursday night, then was pulled in the fifth inning, so I guess that was when Trevino’s decision to have surgery (or the determination Trevino needs surgery) was made. I have more to say about Trevino’s injury and the fallout than I expected, so let’s go through it all now.

Trevino’s (lack of) offense

Even by his very modest pre-2022 standards, Trevino was having a poor season offensively, and there can obviously be a correlation between wrist injuries and not hitting. Here are the numbers on Trevino’s offense:

• 2019-21: .245/.270/.366 (66 wRC+) in 511 PA
• April, May, June of 2022: .263/.313/.436 (113 wRC+) in 144 PA
• Rest of 2022: .238/.263/.356 (75 wRC+) in 209 PA
• 2023: .210/.257/.312 (58 wRC+) in 168

The first three months of last season are an outlier. I’m not sure that guy is ever coming back, healthy wrist or not. Trevino’s numbers this season are down relative to 2019-21 and the final three months of 2022 though, and they were getting worse too. He’s hit .194/.255/.276 (49 wRC+) since May 1st. Even for a catcher, that’s dreadful.

“Oh, no question,” Aaron Boone told Albanese when asked whether the wrist injury hampered Trevino at the plate. “For the most part, he was still competitive and mostly able to get through it, but it definitely had an impact.”

Wrist injuries are known to sap power even after the player completes his rehab and is cleared to return, and I suppose the good news is power is not a big part of Trevino’s game. Even at his best, he’s a hacker who dinks and dunks the other team to death. You certainly need strength in your wrists to do that too, but we’re not talking about a 20-homer guy possibly losing power here.

In a perfect world the wrist injury would explain Trevino’s poor season, and he’ll return next year as the April, May, and June 2022 version of himself. That guy ruled. I think we should expect the same 65-70ish wRC+ guy next season though. That’s what the larger track record says he is. Even for a catcher, that’s not good, though Trevino’s platinum glove makes it tolerable as long as everyone else hits. This year, the bat was below tolerable, and the wrist likely explains it.

Cole’s personal catcher

Gerrit Cole has had a reputation for being particular about his catchers since his days with the Pirates. Trevino’s caught 18 of his 21 starts this season, and 30 of his last 35 starts dating back to last year, postseason included. Higashioka caught Cole twice when Trevino was on the injured list with his hamstring injury in May, then Rortvedt caught Cole on Saturday.

“I thought it was really fun working with Ben. We made a lot of good pitches. We worked out of a jam in the fifth, kept the damage low,” Cole told Zach Braziller following Saturday's game. “Fortunately I’ve been able to work with him in the spring. He’s a high aptitude player and a good player. Trevy was very much involved today. He helped Ben quite a bit and really for the most part we were pretty seamless. He called a great game and did a nice job.”

Because of injuries, Rortvedt has not taken a single at-bat or caught a single inning in Grapefruit League games with the Yankees, so I assume Cole means Rortvedt caught him in bullpen sessions and live batting practice when he says “I’ve been able to work with him in the spring.” Anyway, Cole’s career numbers are a bit better with Trevino than Higashioka …

• with Higashioka: .219/.266/.389 with 32.3 K% and 6.0 BB% in 255 IP
• with Trevino: .206/.261/.346 with 30.4 K% and 6.3 BB% in 258.1 IP

… though they’re excellent either way. I’m sure Cole will be fine working with Higashioka. And hopefully Saturday was a sign he and Rortvedt are already on the same page. I can see it now though, Cole will pitch to a still excellent 3.30 ERA the rest of the way rather than continue with a 2.78 ERA, finish third in the Cy Young voting, and losing his personal catcher will be cited as a reason his performance “declined in the second half.” Take it to the bank.

“They’ll be fine,” Trevino told Albanese about the Higashioka/Rortvedt catching tandem. “Higgy’s been with this staff a long time and Ben’s going to work right in. He’s going to be fine.”

Rortvedt’s playing time

Rortvedt started one game over the weekend and it was the day game Saturday after the night game Friday. It was also against righty Brady Singer, who has a lot of trouble with lefties. It was a pretty obvious day to start him. Boone indicated the Higashioka/Rortvedt playing time split will be similar to the Higashioka/Trevino playing time split, but we’ll see. Not sure I believe that.

“Obviously Ben’s up. He’s done a great job down (in Triple-A) this year. Swinging the bat well and a really good defender,” Boone said about Rortvedt (video), who did a fine job behind the plate Saturday while going 0-for-3 with a strikeout at the plate.

Rortvedt hit .286/.395/.505 (126 wRC+) with six homers in 124 plate appearances with Triple-A Scranton this year – he missed the start of the season after having surgery to treat an aneurysm in March, you may recall – and his contact quality was basically league average. Small sample and all that, but Rortvedt really only did damage in one small part of the strike zone:

Give him something midde-away and let him get his arms extended, and Rortvedt will punish it (like this). Anything else though, no dice. At least that was the case in Triple-A. Rortvedt’s best contact came in that red blob in the middle of the strike zone. The blue is bad and there’s a lot of it. That’s where Rortvedt made the kind of poor contact that typically leads to poor results.

The automated strike zone has inflated Triple-A offense – the International League slash line is .263/.358/.443 this year after .241/.336/.414 last year – and Rortvedt has never hit this much in his career previously. He entered 2023 with a .238/.316/.360 (95 wRC+) line in over 1,300 minor league plate appearances. Rortvedt performed well in Triple-A this year and that’s great, though we should keep our expectations grounded.

That said, I want Rortvedt to play and play a lot. A 50/50 playing time split isn’t enough. I would rather see something like 60/40 or even 70/30 in favor of Rortvedt. Other than day game after a night game stuff, there’s no reason for him to not be in there against righties. Perhaps he’s a typical late-blooming catcher and his year’s Triple-A performance is a sign he’s figuring it out.

With all due respect, we know what Higashioka is. He’s 33, and he gets exposed every time he’s given a starter’s workload. Rortvedt turns 26 in September. Let’s see what happens when he’s given regular playing time for the first time as a big leaguer. It could get ugly, sure, but the catching situation has been ugly all year anyway. Why not change things up?

The Mets series should give us an idea what the catcher playing time split actually will be rather than what Boone says it will be. Monday’s an off-day, Tuesday and Wednesday are night games, then there’s another off-day Thursday. The same catcher can easily start both Subway Series games and would suggest that guy is the starter. If Higashioka and Rortvedt split the two games, then maybe it really will be a 50/50 split. We’ll find out soon enough.

The trade deadline

A week ago Mark Feinsand reported the Yankees were looking for catching help at the deadline (among other things) and now we know it’s because Trevino was playing through a major wrist injury, not because they were unhappy with their catcher production. Now that Trevino’s done for the year, do the Yankees ramp up their efforts to add a catcher? The deadline is a week away.

Trading for a catcher in the middle of the season is difficult enough, plus teams don’t like doing it because the new catcher has to learn an entirely new pitching staff. Who’s even available? I had Travis d’Arnaud in my super early Offseason Plan notes, but he just signed an extension to stay with the Braves, so forget him. Three names jump to mind:

• Yan Gomes, Cubs: Still productive enough (93 wRC+) and Chicago is carrying three catchers (also Miguel Amaya and Tucker Barnhart). Amaya’s a touted prospect who will play a lot in the second half, with or without Gomes.
• Yasmani Grandal, White Sox: The White Sox are terrible and Grandal is a competent hitter (99 wRC+) who’s defense has declined significantly now that he’s in his mid-30s.
• Omar Narváez, Mets: Narváez missed two months with a calf strain and hasn’t played much since returning. Francisco Álvarez is the unquestioned starter and the Mets have Tomás Nido stashed in Triple-A as a ready-to-step-in backup.

All three will be free agents after the season, though Gomes has a club option ($6M with a $1M buyout) and Narváez has a player option ($7M). The Mets are in “we’ll eat every dollar as long as you give us better prospects” mode and that is a) not something the Yankees should do, and b) something I could totally see the Yankees doing (see: 2021 trade deadline).

White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is notoriously frugal and they might give Grandal away as long as you take on the $6M or so he’s owed the rest of the year. If the Yankees are going to bring in rentals, that’s the way to do it. Pay the money, give up little in return, keep the prospects. Given the recent luxury tax rumblings, I can’t say I’m optimistic this is how they’ll operate.

I’ve already seen some Salvador Perez speculation and hoo boy, that’s a firm no. He’s been a good player for a long time (and still is a good player), but a 33-year-old catcher with over 10,000 innings on his legs? Do the Yankees not have enough declining veterans? Perez is owed $44M from 2024-25 and he rates as an atrocious defender. With all due respect, Perez is not what the Yankees need, and I’m not sure he wants to leave Kansas City anyway (he has 10-and-5 no-trade protection).

Without really diving into these guys, Gomes seems like the most sensible trade target given his offense, defense, and contract status. But really though, I say play Rortvedt. There’s a chance he’s part of the future, even if it’s only a small chance at a small role (backup catcher?). Just play Rortvedt and figure out what you have with him already. No rental veteran catcher will move the needle much.

40-man roster situation

Just some quick roster housekeeping: Trevino’s a 60-day injured list candidate now, so he’ll be transferred over whenever the Yankees need a 40-man spot. They put Josh Donaldson on the 60-day injured list last week and added Matt Bowman, who triggered an opt out in his minor league deal, to the 40-man. They then optioned him to Triple-A, so Bowman is shuttle-able depth.

The 40-man is now full and the Yankees will need 40-man spots for Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loáisiga in a few weeks. The trade deadline is coming up too, and we’ll see what happens then. Just wanted to note Donaldson’s 40-man spot has already been taken, and Trevino will go on the 60-day injured list as soon as the Yankees need another 40-man spot.

Wells promoted to Triple-A

Donaldson had to get hurt for the Yankees to call up Oswald Peraza and Trevino had to get hurt for the Yankees to call up Rortvedt and promote Austin Wells to Triple-A. Better late than never, I guess. Wells is 3-for-11 with a double (that should have been caught) and six strikeouts in three games with Scranton thus far. Here is the updated organizational catching depth chart:

• MLB: Kyle Higashioka, Ben Rortvedt (Jose Trevino injured)
• Triple-A: Rodolfo Durán, Carlos Narvaez, Austin Wells
• Double-A: Josh Breaux, Mickey Gasper, Ben Rice (Anthony Seigler injured)
• High-A: Juan Crisp, Rafael Flores, Antonio Gomez, Agustin Ramirez
• Low-A: Omar Martinez, Jesus Rodriguez

Similar to Peraza, Wells was in a slump at the time of his promotion. He hit .200/.284/.320 (64 wRC+) in his final 26 games with Somerset, dragging his season line down to .237/.327/.443 (107 wRC+). All told, Wells authored a .248/.343/.460 (118 wRC+) line with 23 homers, 11.4% walks, and 23.1% strikeouts in 510 Double-A plate appearances dating back to last year.

Given his plate discipline, Wells might be a 16% walk rate guy with the automated strike zone in Triple-A (he was at 17.7% with the automated zone in Low-A). Mostly though, I’m just glad Wells is now in Triple-A and can continue his development against more advanced competition. Now we’ll see how much he catches. So far it’s one game at catcher and two at DH.

3. Scouting the Trade Market: Miscellaneous Targets. Things have been weirdly quiet this trade season, no? Rumors are scarce with the deadline eight days away. I am checking Twitter and refreshing MLB Trade Rumors every 10 minutes like a maniac, and yet nothing. More injury updates than trade rumors to this point, and injury updates are boring.

Things will pick up eventually. I think? I hope. Until then, I feel like I’m in a weird place because there are no rumors to analyze, we’ve talked about the big names already, and we don’t really know what the Yankees will do. I mean, they’re obviously going to buy. They’re only two games behind the third Wild Card spot. But buy to what extent? Aggressively? Cautiously? I dunno.

Since the market has not yet picked up, here are a few miscellaneous trade targets I had on my list that I might as well cover before they get traded to the Not Yankees. Let’s dig in.

IF Vaughn Grissom, Braves

2023 stats: .320/.398/.465 (119 wRC+) with 14.5 K% and 10.2 BB% in 324 PA (Triple-A)

The Braves aggressively promote prospects – Vaughn and Michael Harris II were called up straight from Double-A last year – and Vaughn was very productive filling in when Ozzie Albies got hurt last season. He hit .281/.353/.440 (121 wRC+) in 41 games, and he was in the mix to take over at shortstop when Dansby Swanson signed with the Cubs.

Instead, Orlando Arcia won the job in Spring Training, earned himself a three-year extension, and went to the All-Star Game this month. Grissom will play the entire season at age 22 and he spent a few weeks with the Braves when Arcia got hurt earlier this year. Otherwise he’s been stuck in Triple-A, where he’s played very well. The surface numbers are better than the underlying numbers, for what it’s worth:

• Average exit velocity: 87.8 mph (Triple-A average: 87.7 mph)
• Hard-hit rate: 36.9% (Triple-A average: 37.0%)
• Barrel rate: 15.5% (Triple-A average: 17.5%)

Arcia’s emergence (he’s still only 28), along with Albies and Austin Riley being locked into long-term contracts, mean Grissom is a man without a role. I suppose the Braves could put him in left field next year, after Eddie Rosario becomes a free agent, though they aren’t preparing him for that. Grissom has only played second and short this year. He’s never played the outfield. I guess he could be a DJ LeMahieu-esque tenth man?

In addition to aggressively promoting prospects, the Braves aggressively trade prospects too, particularly prospects down a ways on the depth chart. These guys were all traded within the last two years:

• C Shea Langeliers: No. 9 pick in the 2019 draft, but he was stuck behind William Contreras and Travis d’Arnaud, so he was included in the Matt Olson trade.
• OF Cristian Pache: Former top 20 global prospect. Once it became clear Harris was the center fielder of the future, Pache was sent to the A's in the Olson trade.
• C William Contreras: The Braves traded Langeliers because he was behind Contreras, then they traded Contreras because Sean Murphy was available.
• LHP Kyle Muller: Multiple time top 100 prospect who was likely to be relegated to long relief given Atlanta’s depth. He was part of the Murphy trade.
• OF Drew Waters: Like Pache, Waters became expendable once Harris emerged in center field. He was sent to the Royals for a Competitive Balance draft pick.

Atlanta’s championship window is as open as it’s gonna get – out of the 30 teams, they have the best shot at becoming a dynasty, right? – and GM Alex Anthopoulos knows it. He’s very willing to trade prospects and young players for MLB roster help, even if it’s to get an upgrade at the same position (like trading Contreras for Murphy). No reason to think Anthopoulos will behave differently now.

The Braves have the NL East sewn up (64-34 with an 11.5-game lead), so their deadline moves will be geared toward October. They have a clear need in the bullpen, especially with Nick Anderson (shoulder) and A.J. Minter (elbow) on the injured list. The Braves could use another high leverage reliever. Maybe two. Would Anthopoulos part with Grissom to get high-end bullpen help?

The Yankees can assist the Braves with their bullpen needs and Clay Holmes or Mike King should be on the table to get access to a young player like Grissom. Heck, why not discuss Holmes and King as part of a larger trade? At least be open to it, you know? Building bullpens is an organizational strength. Trading relievers for young position players is one way to leverage that strength.

Another right-handed hitter would not be ideal, but when it comes to getting a 22-year-old with a lively bat, you shouldn’t be picky. The Yankees should get the talented young player and address roster needs (i.e. lefty bats) in other ways. Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote about Grissom last June:

Grissom’s bat-to-ball skills are advanced, enabling him to limit his strikeout rates to the 13-14% range. He can turn on inner-half pitches with over-the-fence power, while he takes more of a take-what’s-given approach on pitches out away from him, knocking pretty, hitterish singles to right field … Grissom has a high-confidence hit tool. He likely doesn’t have the raw thunder power for stardom but is tracking like a bat who will play most days at a few positions toward the middle of the defensive spectrum.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) says Grissom pairs his “natural bat-to-ball ability with a solid understanding of the strike zone” and “his top-end exit velocities stack up with some of the better sluggers in the system (113.2 max EV).” Not many folks outside the Braves organization believe Grissom can stay at short. He’s viewed as more of a second or third baseman.

The Yankees aren’t displacing Anthony Volpe at shortstop anytime soon, though making room for Grissom wouldn’t be tough. Gleyber Torres is a trade candidate (either at the deadline or in the offseason) and the Yankees don’t have an obvious long-term third baseman. Trading from the bullpen to get a young player like this has to be a consideration.

I have no idea whether the Braves are willing to trade Grissom. I’m only mentioning him because he fits the trade candidate mold as a “good young Braves player who is blocked.” The Braves are very willing to trade players like this for impactful upgrades and the Yankees have impactful relievers to peddle. You needn’t try hard to connect the dots.

(The Braves acquired two relievers in minor trades Monday – Taylor Hearn from the Rangers and Pierce Johnson from the Rockies – though they’re depth options more than difference-makers. I can’t imagine Anthopoulos would be against adding Holmes, King, etc.)

(Shortstop Braden Shewmake, the No. 21 pick in 2019, could be another Braves target. He’s not much of a hitter though – .222/.302/.410 and 73 wRC+ while repeating Triple-A – and I don’t think he’s enough to part with a late-inning reliever.)

RHP Keynan Middleton, White Sox

2023 stats: 3.41 ERA (4.02 FIP), 30.3 K%, 10.3 BB%, 53.6 GB% in 34.1 IP

The White Sox are expected to trade their rentals (Lucas Giolito, Yasmani Grandal, Lance Lynn, etc.) and Middleton is among them. The journeyman righty has been sneaky good this year and why would the White Sox keep a sneaky good reliever when he’s going to be a free agent in two months? Middleton, 30 in September, is an obvious trade candidate.

Middleton sits mid-90s and has touched 99 mph this season, though he only throws his fastball about 27% of the time. He’s 43% changeups, 30% sliders, 27% fastballs. At his previous stops, Middleton was told to use his slider against righties and his changeup against lefties. He got to White Sox and they said no, your changeup is really good (video), so use it against everyone.

“Where the game is at nowadays, other teams are making moves to try to attack the pitcher that’s on the mound, and having a guy that’s platoon neutral makes things a lot easier,” ChiSox pitching coach Ethan Katz told James Fegan (subs. req’d) in May. “In the past, he’s been told different messages about his changeup. We highly value it, and it’s something that’s been delegated to left-handed hitters. We think it’s a weapon to both sides of the plate. We want to utilize one of his best weapons and not just limit it to one side.”

In 2016, the Yankees traded away Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller at the deadline, but they also brought in Tyler Clippard to backfill the bullpen. Could they do something like that again this year? Trade a core reliever for help elsewhere on the roster (cough King for Grissom cough) and bring in a guy like Middleton to replenish the bullpen and cover important innings? It’s worth considering, no?

Non-elite rental relievers don’t fetch much at the trade deadline. Last summer Michael Fulmer and Mychal Givens were traded for fringe top 30 team prospects and that’s about all I’d give up to get Middleton. Maybe a Rule 5 Draft eligible prospect on the 40-man roster bubble, like Elijah Dunham? I dunno. Maybe I’m wrong and there will be a heated bidding war for Middleton.

Also, Middleton has had to settle for minor league deals the last two offseasons and he’s never made $1M in a season. If you bring him in and he pitches well, and you decide he’s worth keeping around, Middleton might jump at a cheap extension, say one year and $3M or two years and $5M. He is a rental, technically. Turning it into a multi-year arrangement seems doable though.

The bullpen has been great overall but shaky lately, and there’s always always always room for another good arm out there. Middleton’s changeup usage (44% this year after only 14% from 2021-22) is a tangible reason to believe in his success. I don’t think he’s a fluke. Also, Middleton hates the cheatin’ Astros, which can’t hurt his standing with the fan base.

LHP Sam Moll, Athletics

2023 stats: 4.50 ERA (3.20 FIP), 27.4 K%, 10.6 BB%, 50.5 GB% in 36 IP

A smart team is gonna trade for Moll in the next few days and turn him into an MFer almost overnight, kinda like when Ryan Pressly went to the Astros (and Holmes came to the Yankees). Moll is a little guy (listed at 5-foot-9 and 190 lbs.) who throws sidearm and has the least amount of extension in baseball*, which smart people tell me makes his stuff appear to move more than it really does, leading to a lot of defensive swings and uncomfortable at-bats.

* Extension is a weird one. You want to be on the extremes. Big extension (think 7 feet) means you’re releasing the ball closer to the plate and it gets on the hitter quickly. A shallow release point, like Moll (4.8 feet of extension), means the ball comes out earlier than the hitter is used to and it messes with his timing. Average extension isn't bad, but big or small extension can be advantageous.

As for his stuff, Moll sits 93-96 mph with his four-seamer and sinker, and has a big 3,000 rpm sweeper. His thing is keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact (3.8% barrel rate the last two years) more than missing bats (9.5% swinging strikes). Moll gets a lot of called strike threes just because his pitches move in ways hitters don’t expect (video).

The walks and the big platoon split (.240 wOBA vs. LHB and .346 wOBA vs. RHB) are the concerns and what Moll’s next team will try to fix. The Yankees fixed exactly those issues with Holmes and Wandy Peralta, so while it’s a big ask, it’s doable. There’s definitely some “really, that guy? … *three weeks later* … hell yeah that guy!” potential with Moll, again similar to Holmes and Wandy.

Last week the A’s gave away Shintaro Fujinami, who pitched to a 3.26 ERA (3.64 FIP) from June 1st until the trade. Traded him for a soon-to-be 27-year-old Triple-A reliever. That was a salary dump and Moll, 31, has another pre-arbitration year remaining, so he might not come as cheap, but why not ask? Oakland’s made several terrible trades lately. Might as well see if they’ll take a spare part Triple-A player for a lefty who may be a tweak or two away from dominating.

Various Diamondbacks

There has to be a trade match between the Yankees and D’Backs. Has to be. Even after trading Daulton Varsho, Arizona is overloaded with MLB-ready left-handed hitting outfielders. They have more of these guys than roster spots. Realistically, the D’Backs can’t keep them all. Corbin Carroll is untouchable. We know that. There are still all these guys though:

• Dominic Canzone: 26 next month, 150 wRC+ while repeating Triple-A, got called up for the first time earlier this month (I answered a mailbag question about him recently).
• Dominic Fletcher: 26 in September, 114 wRC+ while repeating Triple-A, had a 112 wRC+ in a 102-plate appearance cup of coffee earlier this year.
• Jake McCarthy: Hasn’t repeated last season (87 wRC+ in 2023 after 116 wRC+ in 2022) but is trending up, does a lot on the bases and in the field too.
• Pavin Smith: The oldest (27) and worst (career 91 wRC+ in MLB) of the bunch. The No. 7 pick in 2017 has failed to stick despite numerous MLB opportunities.
• Alek Thomas: The youngest of the group (23) is a recent top 100 prospect who’s still trying to find his way in the big leagues (career 74 wRC+).

Arizona has cycled through all these guys this season and, about a month ago, they settled on Carroll in left, Thomas in center, and McCarthy in right. That seems like a “they’re our best and most talented players, so they’re gonna play” decision. Canzone is currently riding the big league bench and Fletcher and Smith are biding their time in Triple-A.

GM Mike Hazen recently said the D’Backs plan to be aggressive but not reckless at the deadline, with pitching their primary focus. Prospect for prospect trades are rare because everyone loves their kids more than they love everyone else’s, but Hazen has done them. Most notably, he sent Jazz Chisholm to the Marlins for Zac Gallen a few years back (Gallen had some MLB time with Miami but was still technically a prospect at the time.)

Since the D’Backs want pitching, does something like Randy Vásquez for Fletcher work? It’s a soon-to-be 25-year-old pitcher with some MLB success for a soon-to-be 26-year-old outfielder with some MLB success. Each comes with six full years of team control. Need for a need. My spare Triple-A pitcher for your spare Triple-A outfielder. From Longenhagen last month:

Fletcher has worked to become incredibly strong (his arms are gigantic for a person his size) [listed at 5-foot-6 and 165 lbs.] while retaining fluidity in his hips and shoulders, both of which are evident as he finishes his swing. The sweeping nature of his bat path means Fletcher does most of his extra-base damage against slow stuff he can scoop at the bottom of the zone. He inside-outs a lot of fastballs the other way, and pitchers can limit his damage by approaching him with heat. Fletcher is an average runner from home to first, and his routes in center field are direct and polished, but he doesn’t have the pure speed to play out there regularly. And so he still has a tweener’s skill set, falling short of everyday power and on-base output to profile in a corner, and not quite swift enough to play center unless it’s necessary. He’s not a player you’re going to win because of, but he is a player you can win with as part of your outfield picture.

Vásquez fits the “not a player you’re going to win because of, but he is a player you can win with” mold too, no? With all due respect, his upside with the Yankees is something like Domingo Germán’s role. A steady arm for the back of the rotation who occasionally performs better than that, but likely won’t ever be one of the team’s preferred rotation options heading into the postseason.

I pulled Vásquez for Fletcher out of thin air. The larger point is the D’Backs have more lefty hitting outfielders than roster spots and it’s decision time. Either trade one (or two) of them now or risk them stagnating in Triple-A. These guys may not be The Answer for the Yankees, but they can help. Surely there’s a match to be made here, right? (This is at least the third time I’ve written about the Yankees and these D’Backs outfielders and hopefully the last, one way or another.)

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Bob Klapisch reports the Yankees have hired Andy Pettitte in some kind of pitching advisory role. Pitching coach Matt Blake isn’t in jeopardy. Pettitte’s role will be to pop in now and then to help out and be a sounding board, and that’s about it. He won’t be a full-time member of the staff, though he was in uniform and with the Yankees over the weekend. Honestly, I thought Pettitte was already on the payroll as an advisor. Guess not. Anyway, good move. Not much more to add here. Having Pettitte, who served as USA’s pitching coach in the World Baseball Classic, around more often can’t hurt.

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