May 29th, 2023: Severino, Offense, Vásquez, Kiner-Falefa, Boone, Injuries, Volpe

It's Memorial Day, traditionally an important mile marker on the baseball calendar (I wrote a Memorial Day thing at CBS, if you’re interested), and the Yankees are on pace to go 94-68. Pretty good! Especially considering all the injuries. But in the AL East in 2023, a 94-win pace means you’re in third place. Here is the AL postseason bracket at the moment:

• Byes: Rays and Rangers
• Wild Card: Yankees at Twins
• Wild Card: Astros at Orioles

The best place to be is atop the division with one of the two best records in the league. That gets you a Wild Card Series bye. Outside that, the Yankees are where you want to be. They’re in the third Wild Card spot, which gets them a date with the AL Central winner rather than the second or third best AL East team. Still a lot of season to play, of course. It’s just so screwed up that the third Wild Card spot is the most preferable, at least on paper.

Anyway, I want to get this published so I can relax the rest of the day, plus the Yankees are in Seattle this week and my days of waiting for West Coast night games to end to finish posts are over, so here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon. It stinks the Yankees are playing a late night game on Memorial Day, but a night game after a cross country flight is a Collective Bargaining Agreement thing. What can you do?

1. Weekend thoughts. Did you enjoy the day game Sunday? I hope so, because it’ll be a while until the Yankees play another day game. Monday’s series opener against the Mariners is the first of 21 straight night games for the Yankees. They’re the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game each of the next three weekends (groan) and their next afternoon game is a 4pm ET start against the Rangers on Saturday, June 24th (they have a 1:30pm ET game the next day). For all I know the Yankees could have played 21 straight night games last year, I’m not gonna check, but 21 straight night games seems like a lot, no? Yuck. The schedule is the schedule though. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Severino dominates (and a plea to stay healthy)

I gotta say, I absolutely did not need to see this Saturday afternoon:

In his second start off the injured list, Luis Severino airmailed a pitch to the backstop, then bent over and put his hands on his knees. It looked like he got hurt, potentially seriously, and another Severino injury would be such a bummer. Fortunately, he’s fine. Severino said he bent over like that because he was frustrated with the pitch as he neared the end of his outing.

“It was just a bad pitch. I was mad at myself,” Severino told Zach Braziller after the game. “I thought (Aaron Boone) was going to take me out. I said, ‘No, one more hitter.’”

Pitch to the backstop aside, Severino was dominant Saturday, striking out five and holding the Padres to one hit (a Fernando Tatis Jr. homer) in 6.2 innings. He did walk three, though one was a tough at-bat against Juan Soto and another came as Severino approached his pitch limit. He was efficient (only 82 pitches in 6.2 innings) and he hit 100 mph with his fastball.

“I think I had a good plan of attack,” Severino told Bryan Hoch. “First pitch strikes were really important today. We were ahead in the count almost every time (first pitch strike to 18 of 25 batters). I feel pretty good. I feel pretty healthy. It’s a matter of getting more pitches in.”

The thing with Severino is he gets hurt so much and misses so much time, but when he’s healthy, he’s great. He’s thrown only 131.1 innings from 2019-23! But look at those 131.1 innings:

• ERA: 2.74
• ERA+: 147
• FIP: 3.46
• WHIP: 0.96
• K%: 28.4%
• WAR: +3.1

In two starts off the injured list, Severino looks how Severino always looks. He’s throwing the ball very well, he’s overwhelming hitters, and he just looks great. Even with all the injuries, Severino is a difference-making starter. He just isn’t around to make a difference as often as we'd like.

On an individual player level, few things would make me happier this year than Severino staying healthy and dominating the rest of the season. Aaron Judge breaking his own AL single-season home run record, Anthony Volpe winning Rookie of the Year … and that’s it? Yeah, I think so. Those are the only things that would make me happier than a healthy and dominant Severino.

“He’s a frontline starter to go with our other guys, and then hopefully we’re getting other guys in the mix as the season unfolds,” Boone told Hoch. “You can see a place where we have a chance to have a really complete and talented group that’s tough to score against.”

The best inning of the season

The Yankees scored 10 runs Sunday, something they had done against a team other than the Athletics in more than a month. They did it twice against the A’s, but otherwise hadn’t scored 10 runs since the final game of the Target Field series last month. The seven-run third inning (video) was tied for their biggest inning of the season, and their biggest against a team other than the A's.

That seven-run inning was the offense’s best inning of the season and not just because it was their most runs in an inning against the Not A’s. The Yankees had terrific at-bats throughout, with most of them coming against the very good Yu Darvish. Darvish throws nine pitches and forces you to cover every velocity from 70 mph to 97 mph …

… yet the Yankees swung and missed at just two of his 30 pitches that inning, and four of the six batters who saw a two-strike count that inning reached base. They didn’t just reach base, they had hits, which are the best way to reach base. Harrison Bader, one of the other two batters to see a two-strike count that inning, beat out a double play to score a run as well.

“They had Darvish on the ropes, and with a guy like that, he’s always one or two pitches away from kind of regaining control,” Gerrit Cole told Betelhem Ashame. “I just thought their mentality – they were so prepared and so locked in and so focused. It’s such a blessing for a pitcher to have an offense like that, that can string together that dynamic of an inning to really put yourself in a position to win the game. It’s a nice luxury to have.”

The Yankees have the tenth lowest chase rate in baseball, so they aren’t hackers, but there have been issues with the team’s approach at times. There are a lot of quick outs and quick innings, which makes life easy on the other team and also hell on your pitchers, because they don’t get much time to rest between innings. I thought the difference in the quality of the at-bats was glaring during the Orioles series. The O’s battled in a way the Yankees did not.

In that seven-run third inning Sunday, the Yankees battled and worked the count, and for lack of a better term, they had Yankee-like at-bats. This is a power and patience franchise. Has been for over a century. At their best, the Yankees make the opposing pitcher work hard for outs, and put their mistakes in the seats. The seven-run inning had that feel. Too many other innings this year have not. It was refreshing.

“Man, just a string of really good at-bats,” Boone told Ashame about the seven-run inning. “When everyone’s contributing and a threat, that’s big. Especially against a guy like Darvish, it’s not easy to string hits together. Usually you get a couple guys on base and then it’s a big hit, extra-base hit or homer or something.”

(The Yankees followed the seven-run inning with 13 consecutive outs, so those tough grind-it-out at-bats didn’t last. But this team can do it! We saw it! Against a really good starter too! Seven-run innings are always great and fun. I hope we see the Yankees battle the way they did in that third inning Sunday more often going forward. The offense has rolled over a little too often for my liking this season.)

Dandy Randy debuts

All things considered, it was a fine big league debut for Randy Vásquez on Friday night. There were two walks and some jitters in the first inning, but Vásquez settled down and retired 12 of 15 batters at one point, then things fell apart with two outs in the fifth. Soto took Vásquez way deep and yeah, Soto will do that. Welcome to the big leagues, kid. Soto showed no mercy with his bat flip too:

“I was a little mad. I fouled (a pitch earlier in the at-bat) off myself. I don't like that,” Soto told AJ Cassavell about the home run. “Then he threw me the same pitch, trying to make me foul it off again. I was a little pissed off. I just took all my madness out on the ball."

I’m looking forward to the Yankees not signing that guy in two years. ANYWAY, Vásquez finished with just the two runs allowed on Soto’s homer in 4.2 innings. Four hits, three walks, two hit batters, six strikeouts. Considering his rocky start to the Triple-A season and the imposing star power in San Diego’s lineup, Vásquez handled himself quite well.

“Really, really, really great feeling going out there and warming up and getting ready for the start,” Vásquez told Gary Phillips. “I took a moment and I looked around, and you can see how majestic Yankee Stadium is. So many thoughts came into my mind at that moment, and I just thanked God for this opportunity, and my family, who helped me so much along the way to get here.”

Vásquez threw 29 cutters among his 84 pitches (his most used pitch!) and the cutter is relatively new. He began throwing it late last year and has incorporated it more this season. Vásquez must feel comfortable with the cutter to throw it as much as he did in his MLB debut. He threw plenty of breaking balls as well. Here are the number of 3,000 rpm pitches by Yankees this season:

1. Clarke Schmidt: 105 (sixth most in baseball)
2. Randy Vásquez: 17
3. Mike King: 2
4. Gerrit Cole: 1
5. Colten Brewer: 1

Vásquez spins the crap out of the ball. Always has, likely always will. But still, only six whiffs among 84 pitches Friday, or 7.1%. That’s kinda Vásquez’s thing. He doesn’t miss as many bats as the raw stuff would lead you to believe. Even in Triple-A this season he’s running a 10.5% swinging strike rate. The Triple-A average is 12.2%. Good stuff, few whiffs. Weird.

For a spot start against a star-laden lineup, Vásquez handled himself well. He wasn’t the reason the Yankees lost that game. Now Vásquez can go back to Triple-A and continue to work on his command, his cutter, and whatever else. It was an encouraging spot start and I also hope the Yankees don’t need him again anytime soon. Nicely done, Randy.

“I told him after the game, ‘It’s on us as an offense, not getting you a couple of runs when you’re going up against a lineup like that,’” Judge told Hoch. “You hold them scoreless for a while, then Soto does his thing and gets them two. I was excited to see it. We’ve got a lot of young prospects coming up that we’re going to see over the next couple of years.”

The left field situation

Certainly seems like Isiah Kiner-Falefa has taken over as the starting left fielder. He’s hit well lately, so why not? It’s not like the alternatives are appealing. Kiner-Falefa has started six of the eight games in left field since Aaron Hicks was designated for assignment*. Greg Allen and Oswaldo Cabrera started the other two. Jake Bauers and Willie Calhoun have started none.

“He’s playing great for us right now,” Boone told Hoch about Kiner-Falefa following his walk-off hit Saturday (video). “He’s been driving the ball well. I love him there in that spot. There’s a good chance he’s going to put it in play there. He’s worked his tail off in the outfield to become a really good outfielder, wherever you put him.”

* Hicks cleared waivers and was released Friday, by the way. Any team can pick him up for the prorated league minimum now.

I don’t want to sound like a hater, I'm giving Kiner-Falefa props for his recent play (especially while playing an unfamiliar position), but him in left field is not a permanent solution, you know? Even with Kiner-Falefa’s recent hot streak, Yankees left fielders are hitting .201/.271/.323 (65 wRC+) this season. It’s .184/.268/.333 (69 wRC+) in May, lest you think things have been better the last few weeks.

The average left fielder is hitting .246/.327/.399 (100 wRC+) this year, and while Kiner-Falefa has done well lately, left field is a position of great opportunity for the Yankees. Bringing in an average hitter would be an upgrade, but why stop at average? The Yankees could bring in, say, a 125 wRC+ guy, and it would be a massive upgrade. That should be the goal. The biggest possible upgrade rather than something more incremental (like Allen over Hicks).

Of course, finding a 125 wRC+ left fielder at the deadline is easier said than done. The Yankees thought they were getting one each of the last two deadlines, and that didn’t work out. Point is, Kiner-Falefa has been great lately and he’s earned the majority of the playing time in left. That’s also something that shouldn’t last. This is a band-aid, not a real solution.

Boone suspended

Boone’s seemingly weekly tirades have finally cost him. Boone was suspended one game and fined an undisclosed amount for his “recent conduct toward Major League Umpires,” MLB announced Friday. He served the suspension that night. That came one day after Boone accidentally spit on home plate umpire Edwin Moscoso during an argument during Thursday’s series finale with the Orioles.

MLB’s language suggests the suspension was not just the result of Thursday’s game, and while spitting on Moscoso was obviously accidental (Boone would’ve been suspended way more than one game had MLB deemed it intentional), it’s also not something MLB will let slide. They're gonna protect the umps and a suspension was inevitable after that. Thursday was already Boone’s fourth ejection this season:

• April 12th at Cleveland
• May 15th at Toronto
• May 21st at Cincinnati
• May 25th vs. Orioles

Boone was ejected for arguing balls and strikes on May 15th and May 25th. April 12th was the delayed replay fiasco. On May 21st, Boone was ejected for arguing the runner should not have been allowed to score from first base on the overturned fair/foul call on Bauers. He wanted the runner put at third, argued, and got tossed.

So, four ejections this season, two in unusual situations, and three within the span of 11 days. Since taking over in 2018, Boone has been ejected 30 times, seven more than any other manager. He averages one ejection every 25 games or so. It’s the kinda thing that might earn you a reputation. Umpires may be a little quick to run Boone these days.

“Do I think it’s leading to a quick hook? Not necessarily,” Boone told Hoch. “… I don’t think I’m being targeted by umpires, and that they’re not going to tolerate certain things. I think I’m treated fairly … I don’t like that it’s happened a few times this week. I’d like to not get ejected. Hopefully I can start a long streak of not getting ejected.”

I’m not sure how to confirm this without going back and manually checking each ejection, but I’m willing to bet the majority of Boone’s ejections came after low strike calls on Judge. Boone protects all his players, especially his star, so I don’t mind that he gets ejected as often as he does. Give the umpires hell when it’s warranted. The players seem to appreciate it.

“I made an emphasis to thank him,” Clarke Schmidt told Hoch following Boone’s ejection Thursday. “We’re going to war out there as ballplayers. We’re fighting tooth and nail out there. And to see your manager out there fighting tooth and nail for you as well, it’s a good feeling. I know he’s always going to have our backs, and you saw that tonight.”

As much as we complain about them, MLB umpires are the best in the world, and the majority of them act professionally. Hold a grudge against every manager who throws a fit and you’re gonna hold a grudge against every manager in the game before long. I’d like to believe Boone’s tirades do not lead to an umpire bias against the Yankees, but maybe I’m naive.

Boone’s ejections are good television and I’d like to believe they don’t lead to umpires making biased calls against the Yankees. I mean, MLB grade umpires on everything. A bias against one team(s) would show up in their scorecard. So yeah, Boone should keep protecting his players. It’s important to back them up. He can afford the fines that come with each ejection.

“I’m not going to change,” Boone told Braziller. “Even though I have been kicked out of a lot of games, a lot of them I make it through. Maybe just being better at knowing where that line is. Again, a couple of these I don’t necessarily think I should’ve been tossed. I’ll be mindful of it and try to stay in games while fighting for what I think is important and keeping an edge when I walk out there.”

Miscellany

One inning before the Yankees had their best offensive inning of the season, they made their worst defensive play of the season. They won the game, so I guess I shouldn’t complain, but good grief, what in the world happened on the Little League home run Sunday? Here’s the video and here’s everything that went wrong:

• Bader airmailed the throw home. It was not cut-off-able even though the speedy runner (Ha-Seong Kim) was likely to score.
• Cole didn’t back up home plate. Boone gave a lame excuse about Cole possibly not expecting a throw home, but come on.
• Kyle Higashioka airmailed the throw to third. He also made a noncompetitive throw on Kim’s stolen base earlier in the inning.

I saw some folks getting on Kiner-Falefa for not backing up third base on Higashioka's throw, but nah. He was in left-center because the ball was hit to center, and he went to back up Bader on the hit. Kiner-Falefa did nothing wrong there. Everyone else did. Sloppy, sloppy baseball, especially for a center fielder and catcher known for their defense … Very aggravating Cole start Sunday. No, his defense didn’t do him any favors, but a) Cole contributed to that poor defense by not backing up home, and b) the defense didn’t walk Matt Carpenter and give up a tank to Rougned Odor in the seventh inning. It was the second time in five starts the offense gave Cole a five-run lead, and he coughed up most or all of it. Come on, man … Last week I noted DJ LeMahieu had become a ground ball machine amid his slump, though he was still making good contact, and it seemed like a normal slump to me. He went 3-for-11 with a double and a home run over the weekend, plus he had another near homer robbed (video), so he’s coming out of it. With LeMahieu, the worry every slump is the beginning of the end is natural given his age and recent injury history, but that one really seemed like just a slump. It happens … And finally, he hasn’t gotten into a game yet, but Matt Krook was called up when Vásquez was sent down after his start. Krook has been excellent in Triple-A: 1.04 ERA (1.84 FIP) with 47.9% strikeouts, 50.0% ground balls, and a 77.7 mph average exit velocity allowed. I’m not sure how long Krook will be around with Tommy Kahnle nearing a return, but he’s been waiting for this call up a long time (he was drafted in 2016 and turns 29 in October), and I hope we see him in a game at some point. Preferably with a nice big lead.

2. Injury updates. Got a few quick but nevertheless important injury updates to pass along. I’m not going to go too in-depth with everyone because I just did that last week. Here’s the latest, in alphabetical order:

Josh Breaux (elbow): Breaux started what amounts to a rehab assignment with High-A Hudson Valley over the weekend and went 3-for-9 in two games. He caught once and DHed once in his first game action of the season. Breaux will eventually head up to Triple-A Scranton, where they have three catchers (Rodolfo Durán, José Godoy, Carlos Narvaez) and could soon get Austin Wells. That logjam will have to get sorted out.

Josh Donaldson (hamstring): Donaldson is expected to play another rehab game Tuesday, and if that goes well, he could rejoin the Yankees this weekend for the Dodgers series in Los Angeles. He’s gone 3-for-9 with a double, a 458-foot homer that actually looked like 458 feet (video), four walks, and two strikeouts in three rehab games, and he played a full nine innings at third base Sunday.

Yoendrys Gómez (shoulder): Gómez, my No. 23 prospect, was activated off the minor league injured list over the weekend. He went 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K (video) for Double-A Somerset in his season debut Sunday. I get major Glenn Otto/T.J. Sikkema vibes from Gómez, meaning if this talented but injury prone pitching prospect manages to stay healthy for a few weeks, the Yankees will trade him before he gets hurt again.

Zach Greene (shoulder): Greene has not pitched since being returned by the Mets as a Rule 5 Draft pick in March. He will face hitters this week, according to Brendan Kuty, so he’s on the way back. Greene projects as a middle reliever with interesting pitch characteristics, and hey, every little bit of pitching depth helps. This season feels like it will be one big war of pitching attrition.

Tommy Kahnle (biceps): As long as he makes it through okay, Kahnle will make his final rehab appearance Tuesday, then he’ll join the Yankees in Los Angeles for this weekend’s series with the Dodgers. Hooray for that. Looking forward to seeing Tommy Tightpants again.

Anthony Rizzo (neck): Seeing Rizzo stumble and go to a knee after that collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. at first base Sunday was a heart-in-throat moment. It looked like it was a wrist issue, but it’s his neck, and he cleared all concussion protocols. Rizzo could be back in the lineup Monday. If he has to sit out a game or two, that’s fine. Willie Calhoun is the Yankees’ second best lefty hitter. They can not afford to lose Rizzo for more than a few days.

Carlos Rodón (forearm, back): Rodón is with the Yankees in Seattle and he threw a bullpen session Friday, will throw another one Monday, and has another one scheduled for later this week. What happens after that is still up in the air, but Rodón has gotten back up on a mound. Also, putting Rodón on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man spot for Kahnle would not change his timetable. It would be a paper move since he’s already spent 60 days on the injured list.

Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring): Stanton is tentatively scheduled to begin a rehab assignment Tuesday and Aaron Boone did not rule out a return this weekend at Dodger Stadium, but that seems awfully aggressive. He’s been out more than six weeks. Are they really gonna bring Stanton back after two rehab games at most? I doubt it. The start of the homestand next week seems more likely.

Jose Trevino (hamstring): Trevino is with the Yankees in Seattle and will be activated Tuesday as long as he gets through Monday’s workout okay. Boone said the Yankees do not plan to carry three catchers (duh), so Ben Rortvedt is going back to Scranton, furthering that Triple-A catching logjam.

3. The cases for and against sending down Volpe. The Yankees have played 55 games this season and in those 55 games Anthony Volpe is hitting .198/.279/.354 (76 wRC+) with seven home runs and 13 stolen bases. His defense has been fine overall, though there have been a few lapses on routine plays. The nicest way I can describe Volpe’s season to date is “he’s learning.”

“When we made the commitment to him, that’s what we expected," Aaron Boone told Dan Martin over the weekend about the way Volpe has handled his growing pains. “We knew there may be some ups and downs, inevitably. But we were really confident in the person to be able to deal with all that and make the adjustments.”

The troubling part of Volpe’s season is that he’s performed worse in May than he did in April. Maybe troubling isn’t the right word. Whatever you want to call it, Volpe has performed worse as the season has progressed when the hope was he’d get better as he adjusted to the new level, as he did in the minors. Here are the numbers just for the sake of having them:

• April: .217/.333/.337 (90 wRC+), 28.7 K%, 14.8 BB%
• May: .180/.224/.370 (59 wRC+), 31.8 K%, 4.7 BB%

We all love Volpe and want him to do well, but let’s call a spade a spade here. He’s stunk in May. A .224 OBP for a full month is ghastly. Growing pains come with the territory with young players. This is also a results-based business and the Yankees need better results. From a lot of players, not just Volpe, but Volpe is the only rookie shortstop with big expectations on the roster.

It’s fair to ask whether Volpe should be demoted to Triple-A. The Cardinals sent Jordan Walker down, the Mets sent Brett Baty and Francisco Álvarez down earlier this year, so on and so forth. Countless top prospects made their debut, struggled, went down for more seasoning, and then returned as a force. Not everyone shows up and is a Day 1 impact player.

I don’t think the Yankees will send Volpe down anytime soon. They love him and are committed to him, and even though he's been very bad in May, Volpe has shown enough positive signs to stick around. But again, it’s fair to think a little time in Triple-A is warranted. This is hypothetical since the Yankees aren’t sending Volpe down, but let’s weigh the pros and cons anyway, shall we?

The case for sending down Volpe

It’s the best thing for his development: Is it really the best thing for his development? I have no idea, but this sounds like something that could be true. Volpe has more than twice as many big league plate appearances as Triple-A plate appearances at this point, and he didn’t exactly dominate Triple-A. It’s possible he’s at the point where Triple-A would do him no good and he needs to face MLB competition to get better. Still, it’s not hard to think a little Triple-A time would serve Volpe well, even if only to allow him to have some success and build confidence. It’s not crazy to suggest a player his age and with his level of experience needs more minor league time.

Peraza is waiting: It would be one thing to demote Volpe so the Yankees could plug Isiah Kiner-Falefa back in at short, or sign someone like José Iglesias off the scrap heap. It’s another to demote Volpe when you have another really good shortstop prospect in Oswald Peraza ready to go. Peraza is slashing .329/.380/.576 (138 wRC+) in Triple-A this year and he has 552 career plate appearances at the level. He’s ready for the show. Peraza was considered the favorite for the shortstop job entering Spring Training, remember. Let Volpe reset in Triple-A and give Peraza what feels like a long-awaited big league look. The Yankees would just plug another good young shortstop in! That’s a pro in my book.

It would send a message: To a lot of people. It sends a message to Volpe that he has to be better. It sends a message to other Yankees that they better produce to stick around, because if the Golden Child can be demoted, you can too. It sends a message to fans that the Yankees are unhappy with their current state of play and are making changes. These aren’t necessarily good messages! Do you really want your players, particularly prospects yet to reach the big leagues, to know they won’t be allowed to struggle and go through the learning curve? Do you want to tell Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge that yeah, we screwed up and fell for Volpe’s Spring Training, but you should have confidence in our decision-making anyway? I’m not sure I buy “sending a message” as a good thing even though I suspect it would be considered a positive in some circles.

Service time: Service time manipulation looms over every young player these days. All it would take is three weeks in the minors to steal away Volpe’s age 28 season in 2029. Three weeks in the minors would push his free agency back a year and potentially give the Yankees control of one of Volpe’s peak years at a below-market arbitration salary. Service time manipulation can happy at any time. It doesn’t have to happen at the start of the season.

The case against sending down Volpe

It might stunt his development: Like I mentioned before, it’s entirely possible Volpe doesn’t need Triple-A at this point. He’s been exposed to a fair amount of big league competition and this may be the best level for him. Volpe could go back to Triple-A and learn nothing, because he will face competition inferior to what he’s been exposed to the last two months. You can hurt a player’s development by moving him up too quickly and also by keeping him down too long. As bad as he’s been in May, Volpe may be too good for Triple-A.

It could hurt his confidence: I don’t think this is an issue. For one, Volpe seems to have a great head on his shoulders, and he seems to have handled the whole “top prospect playing shortstop for the New York Yankees” thing very well. Also, if Volpe’s confidence is so hurt by a demotion that it derails his career, he probably wasn’t going to make it anyway. So yeah, there is a risk that a demotion hurts Volpe’s confidence in a way that is beyond repair. I don’t think it’s terribly likely though.

“The bottom line is he’s been a winning player for us a couple months (into the season), no matter what the average says,” Boone told Martin. “I’m not worried about Anthony’s confidence.”

It will hurt his trade value: Thanks in part to the Yankees, the Padres are 24-29 and a half-game out of last place (!) in the NL West. If they continue to struggle, and come to realize there is no chance they can sign Juan Soto to a long-term contract, don’t you call and offer Volpe for Soto? I would. Send Volpe down though, and you’re admitting you don’t believe he’s MLB ready, and that will cut into his trade value a bit. So too will poor performance, though a demotion is an admission your confidence in the player is waning. Teams will see that and adjust their internal trade values accordingly.

The PPI pick: As long as he spends the entire 2023 season on the MLB roster, Volpe will be eligible to earn the Yankees a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick. To do so he must win Rookie of the Year this year, or finish in the top three of the MVP voting at some point before becoming arbitration-eligible. Send Volpe down and the Yankees lose a shot at a PPI pick. This is small beans though. Volpe is unlikely to win Rookie of the Year at this point, and the chances he finished top three in the MVP voting at some point from 2024-25 are tiny just because it’s really hard to play at an MVP level and have the voting go your way. But yes, sending Volpe down would eliminate the chance to gain an extra draft pick.

* * *

I don’t believe the Yankees will send Volpe down and I don’t think they should send Volpe down either. His history suggests he will make the necessary adjustments, though it may take longer to make those adjustments at the MLB level simply because it’s the big leagues. These are the best players in the world. Volpe has shown the ability to do some really good things (power, control the strike zone, play defense, run the bases, etc.). We're just waiting for it all to come together.

The Peraza situation is not a Volpe problem. It’s a Yankees problem. They have to figure out how to incorporate Peraza into the MLB lineup and it shouldn’t take sending down the other promising young shortstop to make it happen. The Yankees had a chance to play Peraza regularly while Josh Donaldson was hurt, but passed. I don’t think playing Peraza is a valid reason to send Volpe down. There are other ways to give Peraza an opportunity. He and Volpe can coexist.

Ultimately, the numbers are the numbers, and a .198/.279/.354 (76 wRC+) line two months into the season is bad. There are 162 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and Volpe ranks 158th in AVG, 152nd in OBP, 140th in SLG, and 150th in wRC+. It’s bad. Young shortstops get graded on a curve, sure, but it’s bad. Wanting the Yankees to send Volpe down is not unreasonable. I just wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for it to happen.

4. 2023 draft prospect: Virginia HS 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge. The 2023 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 26 pick. Here are the prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I happen to like.

Eldridge, 18, is the best two-way player in the draft class, though like most two-way amateurs, it is very unlikely he does both at the next level. The consensus is his future lies as a hitter, though Eldridge has enough arm talent that a) pitching is a viable fallback plan, and b) a few teams are said to prefer him on the mound. (Eldridge says he wants to hit and pitch as long as possible.)

At 6-foot-7 and 217 lbs., Eldridge has drawn comparisons to the high school version of Spencer Jones because he’s physically huge and has a ton of left-handed power, though Jones had the advantage of being a lefty thrower. Eldridge is a righty. (Jones stopped pitching after he broke his elbow and had Tommy John surgery at Vanderbilt). Here are Eldridge’s current draft rankings:

• Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 23
• ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 13
• FanGraphs: Just outside top 36
• Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 14
• MLB.com: No. 21

Eldridge missed time with a hamstring injury last spring and an ankle injury this spring. He’s a known commodity though. Teams have seen him plenty. Eldridge has starred against premium competition in showcase events (100th percentile fastball velocity and 96th percentile exit velocity at Perfect Game) and he was named MVP of the 18-and-under World Cup last summer.

Here’s video of Eldridge on the mound and here’s video of Eldridge at the plate, here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s free scouting report:

Eldridge shook off the rust from having missed time, especially on the mound, due a hamstring injury as a high school junior, to show off legitimate ability both ways. On the mound, he shows feel for three pitches, with a fastball up to 95-96 mph, a very effective low-80s slider and the chance to have a solid changeup. He’s athletic on the mound and is generally around the strike zone, repeating his delivery well despite his 6-foot-7 frame.

At the plate, the left-handed hitter has some serious raw power with leverage but has some feel to hit, with a relatively short stroke. He has soft hands at first base and moves around the bag well, though he is athletic enough with a plus arm where right field could be a very viable option for the University of Alabama recruit.

For what it’s worth, Keith Law (subs. req’d) has heard the Yankees have been in on Eldridge. Just about every mock draft this spring has Eldridge coming off the board before the Yankees pick at No. 26, though it’s very difficult to predict the back-half of the first round, so who knows.

On the mound, the knock on Eldridge is that his secondary pitches are just okay, though these days a smart team can cook you up a new slider in 15 minutes. That seems fixable. At the plate, there are some swing-and-miss concerns, plus the offensive bar at first base is very high. If he’s unable to play the outfield, Eldridge will have to hit and hit a lot to hang around.

The Yankees (or whichever team drafts Eldridge) could try to develop him as a two-way player, but it’s very difficult, and no one has been able to do it yet. Brendan McKay (Rays) keeps getting hurt and Bubba Chandler (Pirates) can’t throw strikes and can’t make contact, and they were considered to have more two-way ability as amateurs than Eldridge. Not sure it’s worth trying.

High school first basemen do not go in the first round often, and the ones that do typically have massive power (like Prince Fielder) or premium athleticism (like Eric Hosmer). Eldridge has the raw pop, plus pitching is at worst a fallback plan. The Yankees love their big strong lefty exit velocity kids, so Eldridge is up their alley. Maybe they’d try him as a two-way guy. Would be fun.

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