April 4th, 2023: Stanton, Volpe, Brito, Schmidt, Florial, Minors

I’ve seen enough: the Yankees are the best team in the National League. Three 5+ run wins and one two-run loss (in which the go-ahead run was on base in the ninth inning) is a fine start to the new season. Two more interleague games on the schedule before the Yankees see their first American League opponent of 2023. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. Is it just me or have there been a lot of really bad strike zones so far this season? Not just in Yankees games, I mean all around the league. Maybe it’s the pitch clock and umpires feel rushed behind the plate? They’re back there every single pitch, they don’t get to go sit in the dugout every other half-inning, so maybe the quicker pace is taxing and their ball/strike calls suffer? I could buy it. After one weekend though, it’s too soon to draw any conclusions. Here are a few thoughts on the first few games.

GiancarlOMG

I have watched or attended probably like 98% of games at the new Yankee Stadium, and I had never seen a ball hit on top of the Mohegan Sun Sports Bar in center field until Giancarlo Stanton did it Sunday (video). I’ve seen it in batting practice (it was a Chris Carter specialty), but never in a game where the pitcher was trying to get the hitter out. The ball landed here:

At 485 feet, Sunday’s blast is the second longest home run of Stanton’s career (he had a 504-footer at Coors Field in 2016). Here are the longest home runs at the new Yankee Stadium since Statcast launched in 2015:

1. Aaron Judge: 496 feet vs. Blue Jays (Sept. 30th, 2017) (video)
2. Aaron Judge: 495 feet vs. Orioles (June 11th, 2017) (video)
3. Giancarlo Stanton: 485 feet vs. Giants (April 2nd, 2023) (video)
4. Gary Sánchez: 481 feet vs. Astros (June 21st, 2019) (video)
5. Gary Sánchez: 473 feet vs. Yankees (Sept. 5th, 2022) (video)

Feels appropriate that the longest homer by a non-Yankee at the new Yankee Stadium was hit by a former Yankee, doesn’t it? No one else in baseball had hit even a 450-foot homer this year until Austin Riley slugged one 473 feet Monday night.

Manny Machado hit a ball into the camera well level against CC Sabathia in 2017 (video) and that is the closest I can remember someone coming to clearing the batter’s eye entirely. Stanton hit it over the camera well and into the people. I have no analysis to add here. Just an insane homer. There are maybe five people in the sport who can hit a ball there and two are Yankees.

“I don’t worry about (the distance) too much,” Stanton told Bryan Hoch. “It just put us in a good spot to win the game. Everything synced up, timing, and the striking was on point. And I just let it go.”

Volpe’s weekend

All in all, a good first four big league games for Anthony Volpe. The rookie shortstop is 2-for-11 (.182) but has four walks and three strikeouts (.400 OBP), and he’s stolen three bases as well. Volpe joined Billy Hamilton, Pat Howell, Ray Lankford, and Fritz Maisel as the only players in history to steal a base in each of their first three big league games.

“I just want to impact every game any way I can," Volpe told Bill Ladson over the weekend. "Definitely when I get on base, whether I go or whether I don’t, just threatening the other team, having them think about me and think a little less about (the hitter). Just on a day-to-day basis, I want them to think about me on the bases.”

These days teams know a player’s weakness before he even makes his big league debut, and through four games Volpe has seen 44% breaking balls. That’s an awful lot considering three of the four opposing starters were fastball/changeup (Logan Webb) or fastball/splitter (Alex Cobb and Taijuan Walker) pitchers. It's not like the Yankees have run into slider monsters. From my top 30 prospects:

There has been a pattern each time Volpe moved up a level. He gets promoted and struggles against spin, particularly from righties and moreso against breaking balls that finish below the zone rather than off the plate away, and needs time to adjust.

Despite all the breaking balls, Volpe is running an 18.4% chase rate in the early going, which is excellent, so he hasn't expanded the zone and gotten swing happy. We have seen him take a few huge hacks on pitches in the zone, but Volpe hasn’t beaten himself by going outside the zone. The hits will come. Having more walks than strikeouts through even only four games is encouraging.

Defensively, Volpe has been solid overall, though he did misplay that humpback liner Saturday (video), which led to a run. Maybe it had some funky spin on it, but still, that’s a play a Major League shortstop has to make. Otherwise Volpe has handled everything else at the position and hasn’t been an adventure. He’s more than held his own on both sides of the ball.

The plate discipline has been excellent, there have been stolen bases aplenty, and outside that one play the defense has been solid. Unless Volpe begins to press at the plate because he’s hitting .1something, everything he’s doing now is what you want. We’re waiting for a “welcome to the Yankees" moment, but it'll come. It's only been four games. So far, so good for Volpe.

Jhony B. Good

Mid-90s velocity, a quality changeup, and the confidence to throw strikes will keep you in this league a long time. Jhony Brito, my No. 20 prospect, showed all those traits in his MLB debut Sunday, holding the Giants to two singles and a walk in five shutout innings (video). He struck out six and held San Francisco to an 80.0 mph average exit velocity.

“I always thought about having a good debut. You have to be confident to do your job. If you start thinking about bad outcomes, that’s usually when things get out of hand. I’m very happy,” Brito told Hoch following the game. Here are the lowest average exit velocities allowed in a game so far this season (min. 10 balls in play):

1. Jhony Brito, Yankees vs. Giants: 80.0 mph
2. Noah Syndergaard vs. Diamondbacks: 81.0 mph
3. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals vs. Braves: 81.5 mph
4. Cal Quantrill, Guardians vs. Mariners: 81.9 mph
5. Martín Pérez, Rangers vs. Phillies: 82.0 mph

I don’t know whether it was rookie jitters or quality at-bats or both, but the Giants made Brito work in the first inning. He threw 27 pitches to just four batters in that first inning, then needed only 49 pitches to get through the next four innings. Three of the four batters in the first saw at least six pitches. Only five of the final 13 batters saw even five pitches in their at-bats.

Brito’s changeup is an equalizer. He threw it 28 times, the most of any pitch, and the Giants missed with 11 of their 22 swings against it. Brito is comfortable throwing it to righties and in any count, and he located quite well. He pounded the down and armside corner with the changeup:

“It just looks really similar to his fastball. Probably more than most guys. It’s really hard to tell,” Kyle Higashioka, who caught Brito, told Hoch about the changeup. “His willingness to attack the zone is probably the most important thing. You have to trust your stuff and attack the zone because Major League hitters are going to feel you out and see what you have. He did a great job.”

The Frankie Montas trade is a dud and giving away Ken Waldichuk and JP Sears really sucks, but the Yankees were comfortable trading them (and Hayden Wesneski) because they believe in their young arms and pitcher development. The cupboard isn’t bare. Brito entered 2023 as No. 8 at best on the rotation depth chart and he’s pretty good. As good as any No. 8 in the league, I’d say. The kid was very impressive Sunday.

Alas and alack, the Yankees optioned Brito to Triple-A following Sunday’s game and called up Ian Hamilton before he could trigger his opt out. I understand why the Yankees did it (they won’t need their No. 5 starter for a bit and will carry an extra reliever in the interim) but I hate this part of the game. Let young pitchers stay in the big leagues when they perform well! Optimizing the roster to the nth degree at all times is for the birds. Brito was great Sunday and will be back soon enough. It still stinks he was sent down immediately. Nice debut, Jhony.

“I’ve got to thank my teammates,” Brito told Hoch after his MLB debut. “They prepared me and gave me good pointers to understand that it’s the same kind of baseball that we’re going to play out there. It’s going to be a different stadium and definitely more fans, but I was not nervous.”

Clarke’s cutter and a failed test

Clarke Schmidt, who is enough a part of the team now that he switched from No. 86 to No. 36, added a cutter this spring to better combat lefties. The platoon crazy Giants put the cutter to the test right away Saturday. The starting lineup San Francisco ran out there:

1. LHB
2. LHB
3. RHB
4. LHB
5. LHB
6. RHB
7. LHB
8. LHB
9. RHB

Six lefties split into three sets of two hitting consecutively. The first time through the lineup, those six lefties went 1-for-5 with a bunt single and a walk against Schmidt. The second time through the lineup, they went 3-for-5 with a double and two homers, and one hard-hit out. Schmidt threw the cutter plenty, but the Giants looked more comfortable the second time they saw it.

“I was getting the swing and miss earlier in the game. I feel like they made some adjustments as far as their approach, and you kind of saw that throughout the rest of the game,” Schmidt told James O’Connell. “It’s frustrating making some good pitches and they spoil them, but that’s what good teams do.”

Schmidt threw his cutter plenty: 27 times among 76 pitches, all but one to left-handed batters. It was his most used pitch! He certainly has confidence in it and that’s half the battle (what good is a new pitch if you're timid with it?). Schmidt didn’t have that problem with his cutter. Here are his pitch locations to San Francisco’s many left-handed hitters:

Can’t leave that many cutters in the middle of the plate. Schmidt knows that and he’ll work on it. I am curious to see whether he and the Yankees scale back on sliders and go more curveball heavy against lefties. Sweepers have a big platoon split and it’s probably not great he used it so much against lefties. More curves could be the answer. Worth a try, I guess.

(To be fair, it can be difficult to tell Schmidt’s slider from his curveball with the traditional center field camera angle. The slider is more side-to-side while the curve breaks down, but yeah, they can look alike. They are two distinct pitches with different velocity ranges and movement though.)

The Giants battled and ran Schmidt’s pitch count up early. They fouled away 12 of his 30 pitches with two strikes, or 40% (MLB average was 23% last year). Schmidt needed 50 pitches to get through the first two innings and eight of the 16 batters he faced saw at least five pitches. Schmidt had trouble finishing at-bats. Pitch efficiency was nowhere to be found.

“I felt like I got off to a good start and that last inning, there was some long ABs in there,” Schmidt told O’Connell. “Kind of dragged it out a little bit, and then maybe left a few pitches over the plate after executing a few pitches that they were fouling off.”

Schmidt is 27, so he’s not a kid, but this is his first time in a big league rotation, and neophyte starters are known to run up high pitch counts. To take the next step, Schmidt must solve lefties, and not just once through the order. That will be the difference between staying in the rotation or settling in as a No. 5 starter/swingman/short reliever type. What he’s been to date, basically. The Giants and all their lefties were a tough test for Schmidt and I wouldn’t say he passed.

The new rules

Quick early season update on the new rules. The Yankees have played four games thus far, all nine-inning affairs: 2:33, 3:12, 2:27, 2.41. The MLB average is 2:38 per nine innings in the early going. Last year the Yankees averaged 3:13 per nine innings and the MLB average was 3:03. The pitch clock is the best thing to happen to this sport in a long, long time.

Of course, shortening games isn’t the priority. The priority is less downtime within games and shorter games are a byproduct. Here are the pace numbers early in the season. This is the average time (in seconds) between pitches within an at-bat:

The league has eliminated close to five seconds per pitch. And that’s five seconds of nothing. It’s five seconds of the pitcher looking in for the sign, the batter taking practice swings, and Michael Kay rambling. I love Aaron Judge and I assume you do too since you’re reading this, but Judge’s pace was 24.5 seconds last year. It’s down to 16.8 seconds this year. That’s so much better.

As for pitch clock violations, there have been five in the Yankees’ four games, four by pitchers and one by a hitter. Albert Abreu got dinged Saturday. All the other violations were on the other team. MLB as a whole is averaging 0.80 violations per game and that rate has been trending down since the start of Spring Training. It’ll decline a little more in the coming weeks.

The league-wide BABIP is up, though in a weird way. There is no change to ground balls. The increase in BABIP is tied up entirely on balls hit in the air. Mike Petriello was nice enough to build a table so I didn’t have to:

Maybe it has to do with the weather and wind in April? We don't have nearly enough data to draw any conclusions about the ban on extreme shifts yet. I am generally opposed to dictating where players can play, but I can’t say I’ve found myself missing the shift. We’ll have to check back on this in a few weeks.

Stolen bases, as expected, are up. There are 1.68 attempts per game at an 83% success rate in the super early going. Those numbers were 1.36 and 75% last season. The Yankees are 6-for-7 stealing bases through four games, though Volpe is skewing things a bit. Last year the Yankees attempted their seventh steal in their 11th game. So, steals are indeed up in the early going. Not by an insane amount, but up. Stolen bases are exciting. I dig it so far.

(Teams and players will make adjustments. Four days of stolen base numbers ain’t much.)

With the caveat that I don’t think anyone really knows what to make of the ban on extreme shifts just yet, I’d say the new rules are a success so far. Games flow much better with the pitch clock, we haven’t gotten slammed with pitch clock violations, and there’s more stuff happening on the field as evidenced by the increase in BABIP and steal attempts. I find it all very refreshing.

Miscellany

Three straight batters reached base in two-strike counts against Mike King in that sixth inning Saturday. Last year he held opposing hitters to a .138/.222/.202 batting line in two-strike counts, so yeah, three straight reaching base in two-strike counts is notable. King was also 93-95 mph more than 96-98 mph and looked like a lesser version of himself in his season debut. Hopefully it’s just early season stuff and a slower build up after the elbow injury … Isiah Kiner-Falefa started the third game of the regular season in center field over Aaron Hicks. I don’t know what that says about the roster construction exactly, but it doesn’t say anything good … Judge is 7-for-17 (.418) with two homers through four games. Ho hum. Seven strikeouts though. Judge is gonna mess around and win a second straight MVP, isn’t he? … And finally, one small roster note: taxi squads are still a thing this season. I know this because the Giants had one with them this past weekend, according to Susan Slusser. I guess taxi squads are permanent now? Not a bad idea. I assume the rules are the same as the last two years (five players max and one must be a catcher if you carry the full five). Following the Phillies series, the Yankees have three games in Baltimore and three games in Cleveland. Close enough that they might not bring a taxi squad. The next road trip after that goes through Minnesota and Texas.

2. Florial finally designated. I don’t mean finally as in he deserved it. I mean finally in that the writing has been on the wall for two weeks now, and it finally happened. I can’t imagine waiting that out was fun for Estevan Florial. The Yankees designated Florial for assignment Saturday to clear 26-man and 40-man roster space for new pickup Colten Brewer.

“We’ve been through a lot with Flo,” Aaron Boone told MLB.com. “He’s such a great kid. The one thing that I tried to remind him and encourage him of is that he’s still a young man with a ton of talent. This game is difficult and clicks at different points for different people.”

The Yankees are back to a normal 13-pitcher/13-position player roster and they have four more days to trade, release, or waive Florial. I expect a trade. Florial still has a few fans around the league and some team will give up a lottery ticket minor leaguer for him. Clearing waivers and sticking around as a non-40-man guy would be ideal, but I’m not sure it’ll happen.

For as much as the Yankees said they believed in Florial, their actions spoke differently. He was never given much of a look in the big leagues and his call ups were mostly short-term injury or COVID replacements. Florial had 16 MLB stints in parts of four seasons with the Yankees. The number of days for each stint: 1, 3, 1, 1, 7, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 4, 4, 7, 15, 1. That’s a lot of one-day cameos as the 27th man for a doubleheader.

Also, the Yankees chose Franchy Cordero over Florial. They could have optioned Cordero to Triple-A (he does have an option left) and put Frankie Montas on the 60-day injured list to clear the necessary 26-man and 40-man roster space for Brewer, and kept Florial. Instead they designated Florial, indicating they believe Cordero (a career -0.6 WAR player) is more likely to help them win games.

If you like a young player, you give him a longer look than the Yankees ever gave Florial, and you certainly don’t jettison him to keep a guy like Cordero. I’m not saying the Yankees were wrong to move on. I’m just saying they never believed in Florial him as much as they said they did. Pay attention to what they do, not what they say. This dates back to the Yankees saying they believed Jesus Montero could catch despite barely letting him catch in Sept. 2011.

Florial was done in by poor pitch recognition and contact issues, two things that are very hard to improve. He has enough secondary skills (speed and defense) to carve out a career as an extra outfielder and he is only 25. Maybe the light bulb goes on at some point. It’s too bad it never worked out. Florial has a ton of talent. Ultimately, he ran out of time to put it together and the Yankees couldn’t justify carrying him on their 2023 roster.

“It could absolutely still happen for Flo,” Boone told Max Goodman. “(There were) some key points in his development where he missed the bulk of a couple years in a row, which probably hurt him a little bit just from an experience and important development phase. But again, he’s still young and very talented, so you never bet against that.”

3. Triple-A Opening Day. Triple-A Scranton opened their season Friday night and they are 1-2 through three games. Jake Bauers hit two home runs on Opening Day and Randy Vásquez walked five in 3.1 innings. It was cold and windy that night, but still, eek. Double-A Somerset begins their season Thursday. High-A Hudson Valley and Low-A Tampa start play Friday.

The Yankees announced each minor league affiliate’s Opening Day roster over the weekend and I’m going to get to the other three clubs a little later. I want to focus on Triple-A Scranton a bit first, so let’s do that now.

RailRiders’ Opening Day roster

The Yankees didn’t tweet out a fancy Opening Day roster graphic for Triple-A Scranton like they did for the other three affiliates, so I had to make one. Here is the Opening Day roster. Players in yellow are on the 40-man roster (minor league rosters are 28 spots, not 26, though Scranton is carrying only 27 players for the time being).

That’s the Opening Day roster and it’s already changed. Jhony Brito was sent down following Sunday’s start in the Bronx and Hamilton was called up to replace him. Brito will step into Scranton’s rotation for at least one start, presumably in Weber’s spot (Weber gave up six runs in 2.2 innings Saturday).

Anyway, don’t get too hung up on the positions and who’s starting vs. who’s on the bench in the table. I just listed the names and guys always rotate around in Triple-A. Peraza’s already played short and second, Chaparro’s already played first and third, so on and so forth. Those are the players on the roster and who plays where changes on a daily basis. Such is life in the minors.

Overall, wow is that roster short on prospects. Peraza, Vásquez, and Dunham are far and away the best prospects on the team. I ranked them No. 3, No. 10, and No. 18 in the system, respectively. Deivi is Deivi, Weissert will ride the shuttle all year, and Bastidas, Boyle, Chaparro, and Krook are interesting enough. Otherwise that’s a lot of journeymen and fringe prospects.

In terms of prospects, Double-A Somerset has the most exciting roster in the system, and a bunch of those guys will make their way up to the RailRiders before long. Otherwise there’s not much to see in Scranton right now. Dunham, Peraza, Vásquez, a few relievers, and that’s really it. Not great.

García and Krook move to the bullpen

Deivi and Krook are listed as relievers on my roster and it’s not an accident. The Yankees have moved them into multi-inning bullpen roles. Krook struck out five in two scoreless and hitless innings on Opening Day. García struck out four in 2.2 innings Saturday (video). He allowed two hits and no runs, and did not walk a batter. From man on the scene Conor Foley:

"I think (Deivi) really worked to embrace that role last year when he came back," RailRiders pitching coach Graham Johnson said. "Part of that was just coming back from injury and wanting to make sure we were doing right by him at the end, but I think he was also really excited about pitching out of the bullpen. He worked really hard to find a routine.

"And then Krookie's very flexible. My man just wants to pitch. He doesn't really care what role. He recovers really well after outings. So, I think bullpen is a natural fit for him. But obviously, he did a great job as a starter for us last year as well."

García was pumping 98 mph in Spring Training, and he averaged 95.4 mph and topped out at 98.1 on Saturday. Foley says Deivi shimmied a few times, so he must feel comfortable with his delivery. He threw 18 fastballs among 37 pitches, or 49%. I’d like to see him up it to 75% fastballs or so and really let it eat, and stop leaning so much on the secondary pitches that have given him trouble the last few years. We’ll see. Just one game so far.

After the last two years, the bullpen is where García belongs. If he pitches well, we can talk about a move back into the rotation later, but not yet. Let him have a little success and build confidence first. Krook doesn’t throw enough strikes to start at the next level and he’s already 28. Time to put him in the bullpen and see what’s what. New roles for these two this year and I like it. The bullpen is where Deivi and Krook will help the Yankees most, I think.

Gasper may be becoming a Guy

Behind the plate on Opening Day was not Godoy, the Triple-A veteran, or Durán, who has spent most of the last two seasons in Double-A. It was Gasper, a 27-year-old former 27th round pick who caught 13 games last season and 16 games in 2021. He played 57 games at first base last year and was mostly a bench guy at Double-A. Now he’s the Triple-A Opening Day catcher.

Gasper hit .266/.407/.453 (141 wRC+) with nearly as many walks (16.3%) as strikeouts (19.6%) in 270 plate appearances with Somerset last year. He caught eight Grapefruit League games this spring (four fewer than all last year) and went 6-for-8 with a double, two walks, and no strikeouts. It ain’t much, but I know Gasper has a few folks with the Yankees saying “hmmm” thanks to his improved defense and quality, grind-it-out at-bats.

The RailRiders have used three different starting catchers in three games but Gasper was at DH on Sunday. He’s the only one of the catchers to play multiple games. Gasper’s a switch-hitter, he’s always put together good at-bats, and it seems his defense behind the plate has improved enough that the Yankees are giving him a longer look there. I’m curious to see where this goes.

(Gasper the Friendly Catcher is 0-for-6 with two strikeouts in the super early going.)

New Triple-A postseason format

And finally, the International League and Pacific Coast League are adopting the two-halves postseason format, MiLB announced last week. The team with the best record in the first half gets one postseason spot, and the team with the best record in the second half gets the other postseason spot. Those two teams then play a best-of-three series, and the winner advances to the Triple-A Championship Game (IL vs. PCL). That’s a one-game winner-take-all.

The two-halves postseason format has been in use in the lower minors basically forever. Minor league rosters change so much during the season, so the two-halves format gives each club a reset in the middle of the year, and another chance at a postseason spot. Complicated? Eh, only slightly. More fair? Yeah, probably, given how much roster turnover there is in the minors, even at the Triple-A level. New year, new postseason format in the highest level of the minors.

4. Minor league Opening Day rosters. Now that I’ve said what I wanted to say about Triple-A Scranton, let’s move onto the other minor league affiliates. Here are their Opening Day rosters with some thoughts on each.

Double-A Somerset Patriots

Top 30 prospects: OF Jasson Domínguez (No. 2), OF Everson Pereira (No. 5), RHP Will Warren (No. 7), SS Trey Sweeney (No. 9), RHP Clayton Beeter (No. 14), RHP Richard Fitts (No. 22)

Not top 30 prospects: none

Fallen prospects: none

Prospects to know: 3B Tyler Hardman

Before we discuss the roster, I want to note the Yankees gave out the 2022 Double-A Eastern League Championship rings to Somerset’s players in Spring Training. For a Double-A ring, these are pretty snazzy:

They're personalized with each player's name too. The rookie Florida Complex League Yankees won their league championship as well. Their rings are not as nice as Somerset’s, but they’re still pretty great. The Yankees certainly didn’t skimp on minor league championship rings over the winter. Good stuff.

Anyway, Somerset has the most prospect-laden roster in the system, hands down. Domínguez tore up the Grapefruit League (.455/.520/1.046!) and will start 2023 back in Somerset, where he played a handful of games late last year. I know we’re all dreaming of a big league call up this season, but a few months in Double-A and a few months in Triple-A would be a very successful season for El Marciano.

I’m a bit surprised Beeter is back in Double-A. He made five starts in Double-A to close out 2021 and he spent the entire 2022 season there, and finished very well after coming over from the Dodgers in the Joey Gallo trade. The Triple-A Scranton rotation is not exactly teeming with prospects. I thought Beeter would open the season with the RailRiders given what he did last year. I guess he'll have to wait a few weeks for a promotion.

Pereira, Sweeney, and Warren had varying levels of success at Double-A following midseason promotions last season. Warren is closest to a Triple-A promotion and it wouldn’t surprise me too much to see Pereira spend the entire year with Somerset. I don’t think it’ll happen, I think he’ll get to Scranton at some point, but a full year in Double-A wouldn’t be completely insane.

Under-the-radar guy to watch: RHP Blas Castano. Castano, 24, had a 3.49 ERA (4.04 FIP) with middling strikeout (22.4%) and ground ball (42.5%) numbers in High-A last season (video), but it’s mid-90s gas with promising secondaries (slider and changeup). Castano is on the small side (listed at 5-foot-10 and 165 lbs.) and there’s effort in his delivery, so he might wind up in the bullpen, but he has a history of low walk rates and good enough stuff to pique interest.

High-A Hudson Valley Renegades

Top 30 prospects: OF Spencer Jones (No. 4), RHP Drew Thorpe (No. 8), C Antonio Gomez (No. 15), RHP Juan Carela (No. 29), SS Alex Vargas (No. 30)

Not top 30 prospects: LHP Joel Valdez

Fallen prospects: 1B/OF Anthony Garcia

Prospects to know: none

Jones to High-A, eh? The Yankees had C Austin Wells and SS Trey Sweeney, their previous two first round college bats, begin their first full pro seasons with Low-A Tampa. Jones came out of school with less refinement than those two, yet he goes directly to Hudson Valley. Interesting. The Yankees really love the kid and obviously they’re comfortable challenging him to begin the season. (I was hoping to get some Statcast data on Jones in Tampa. Alas.)

Thorpe beginning the season in High-A is less surprising. He’s a very polished pitcher who spent three years in a college rotation. Thorpe should chew up inexperienced hitters at this level. We’re not going to get a great read on him until he gets to Double-A Somerset, which should happen sometime this summer. Hudson Valley is just a pit stop for Thorpe.

Following a brief demotion to Extended Spring Training last May, Gomez returned to hit .268/.343/.398 (113 wRC+) in his final 74 games. He is the best catching prospect in the system among guys expected to catch long-term. He’ll be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season (again) and a strong season in High-A would put Gomez firmly on the 40-man roster radar.

Under-the-radar guy to watch: RHP Chase Hampton. Last year’s sixth rounder is a candidate to be the next mid-round college starter who levels up and has a breakout season a la RHP Will Warren last year and LHP Ken Waldichuk and RHP Hayden Wesneski two years ago. Hampton was a 92-95 mph guy at Texas Tech, but he popped a few 96s during his lone Grapefruit League appearance on Feb. 27th. We’ll see where this goes. Also, RHP Zach Messinger has two really good breaking balls. The command and fastball are lacking, but he spins the ball nicely.

Low-A Tampa Tarpons

Top 30 prospects: LHP Brock Selvidge (No. 24), RHP Sean Hermann (No. 28)

Not top 30 prospects: IF Jared Serna

Fallen prospects: none

Prospects to know: LHP Justin Lange

Tampa does not have the most exciting Opening Day roster. OF Daury Arias was one of my prospects to know last year and OF Alan Mejia and SS Dayro Perez are toolsy lottery tickets. OF Raimfer Salinas has been around forever (the Yankees signed him with the international bonus pool money they had leftover when Shohei Ohtani went to the Angels) but he hasn’t hit at all and isn’t much of a prospect these days.

If it’s not Serna, C Agustin Ramirez is the best position player prospect on Tampa’s roster. He’s an exit velocity dude who slashed .304/.386/.506 (143 wRC+) with nearly as many walks (11.7%) as strikeouts (15.7%) in the rookie Florida Complex League last season. Ramirez, 21, may not catch long-term, but he can bang. He’s already Rule 5 Draft eligible too. A breakout 2023 would further the upcoming 40-man roster logjam.

Under-the-radar guy to watch: RHP Alex Bustamante. Signed as an undrafted free agent last summer, Bustamante is a pure reliever who sits mid-90s with a wipeout slider. Throwing strikes can be a challenge at times (okay, a lot of times) but it’s nasty, nasty stuff. RHP Hayden Merda, last year’s 17th round pick, has out of this world pitch data. Can he execute enough to turn it into results? We’ll find out. Merda had a 37.2% strikeout rate in college last spring.

Notable omissions

Nine of my top 30 prospects are not on an Opening Day roster: C Austin Wells (No. 6), RHP Luis Serna (No. 12), SS Roderick Arias (No. 13), OF Brandon Mayea (No. 16), RHP Trystan Vrieling (No. 21), RHP Yoendrys Gómez (No. 23), OF Anthony Hall (No. 25), RHP Brendan Beck (No. 26), and RHP Carson Coleman (No. 27). We can put them into three buckets:

• Known Injuries: Wells (rib), Beck (Tommy John surgery)
• Probably injured: Coleman, Gómez, Hall, Vrieling
• Baseball babies in Extended Spring Training: Arias, Mayea, Serna

Gómez pitched in a Grapefruit League game on March 24th. If he’s hurt, it’s a new injury (he has a very long injury history). Coleman was dominant in Double-A last season. He must be hurt if he’s not on an Opening Day roster. There’s a chance Hall and Vrieling are healthy and being held back in ExST, though it would be unusual as relatively high college draft picks.

Arias, Mayea, and Serna are all teenagers and where they belong in ExST. Arias figures to head to the rookie Florida Complex League when the season begins in June. Mayea could join him, though he just signed in January and it’s more likely he starts in the Dominican Summer League. Serna pitched well in the FCL last year. He’ll join Low-A Tampa in a few weeks, I think.

The three not top 30 prospects (IF Keiner Delgado, RHP Omar Gonzalez, C Engelth Urena) not on Opening Day rosters are all ExST kids, so no surprise they’re not on a roster somewhere. RHP Matt Sauer is MIA. He finished last season hurt and maybe it carried over. LHP Edgar Barclay, a 2022 not top 30 prospect, pitched well with Hudson Valley last year and is nowhere to be found now, so he’s presumably hurt too.

Coleman, Gómez, Hall, and Vrieling are the most notable mystery absences as top 30 prospects. Coleman and Gómez are likely hurt if they’re not on a roster. No reason they would not be a full season roster otherwise. A few top 30 prospects get hurt in camp and aren’t on an Opening Day roster each year. That’s just how it goes in this game.

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