Quick thoughts after Anthony Volpe makes the Opening Day roster

I wonder if he’ll live with his parents.

#VolpeningDay has become a reality. Sunday afternoon the Yankees announced top prospect Anthony Volpe has indeed made the Opening Day roster. The Yankees posted video of Aaron Boone giving Volpe the news and Volpe telling his parents. The rest of the Opening Day roster will be announced in a day or two.

"Since I can remember,” Volpe told Chris Kirschner when asked how long he’s dreamed of being a Yankee. “I’m probably the same as kids my age. A lot of my classmates, this is all of our dreams. For it to become a reality is hard to put into words."

Volpe, 22 next month, earned his Opening Day roster spot with a .314/.417/.647 showing this spring. He took Pablo López deep Friday (video), then doubled and tripled against Aaron Nola on Saturday (video). Those two are starting Opening Day in a few days. Volpe also looked the part in the field and on the bases. The kid certainly looks like a big leaguer.

“He saw what he saw from me (in his first at-bat), and then he went to the plate with a better understanding and idea, and then he executed that plan,” López told Bryan Hoch after Volpe took him deep. “That shows a lot of maturity. That shows a lot of promise. A young kid making those kinds of adjustments and then hitting that ball that hard, that far, through the deepest part of the ballpark, yeah, obviously, I think he’s a very good player.”

It goes without saying Volpe did not make the roster to sit on the bench. He’s the starting shortstop. At 21 years and 336 days, Volpe will be the youngest player to start for the Yankees on Opening Day since Derek Jeter in 1996 (21 years and 281 days). Here are the youngest players to make their MLB debut on Opening Day in Yankees history, per James Smyth:

1. Mickey Mantle: 19 years and 179 days in 1951
2. Ben Chapman: 21 years and 111 days in 1930
3. Frank Crosetti: 21 years and 191 days in 1932
4. Anthony Volpe: 21 years and 336 days in 2023

The New Jersey born and raised Volpe managed to reach the big leagues as a high school draft pick before being Rule 5 Draft eligible even while losing an entire minor league season to the pandemic. That is pretty incredible. The kid shot up the minor league ladder, was challenged with a shortstop competition this spring, and answered the bell. He earned his spot. Here are a few quick thoughts on Volpe making the Opening Day roster.

1. 40-man roster spot. Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way first. Volpe is not on the 40-man roster, but the Yankees can easily clear a spot by putting Scott Effross (elbow), Luis Gil (elbow), or Frankie Montas (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list. Effross will probably be first to go on the 60-day injured list just because he’s definitely missing the entire season after having Tommy John surgery in October. It could be any of the three though. Opening a 40-man spot is no issue.

2. Short-term expectations. Volpe tore up the Grapefruit League, though he faced mostly Double-A competition according to Baseball Reference’s opponent quality metric, and the big leagues are a different animal. Volpe has a history of struggling when he’s first promoted to a new level. I’m gonna quote my top 30 prospects post:

There has been a pattern each time Volpe moved up a level. He gets promoted and struggles against spin, particularly from righties and moreso against breaking balls that finish below the zone rather than off the plate away, and needs time to adjust. It happened when he was promoted to High-A Hudson Valley in July 2021 (25.2% strikeout rate in his first 24 games and 20.5% thereafter), when he was sent to Double-A Somerset to begin 2022 (27.0% strikeout rate in his first 27 games and 14.7% thereafter), and when he arrived at Triple-A Scranton to finish 2022 (30.3% strikeout rate in 22 games). The breaking balls only get better each time you climb the ladder, and there's always a chance Volpe never solves them at Triple-A or MLB. At the very least, we should assume he has an adjustment period coming whenever he gets summoned to the Bronx.

Volpe’s not gonna hit .314/.417/.647 this year like he did in Spring Training because practically no one does that in the big leagues. There will likely be some growing pains the first few weeks (remember Judge in 2016?), though history tells us Volpe will make the necessary adjustments in time.

ZiPS projects a .234/.318/.407 (108 wRC+) line for Volpe this season and I think a lot of people would consider that a disappointment. Maybe not anyone here in our little RAB community, but in the fan base at large. Only eight shortstops put up a 108 wRC+ in 2022! That would be a hell of a year for a 21-year-old rookie. I would bet on Volpe beating it too. The kid has done nothing but exceed expectations in his career.

3. Whither Peraza? The Yankees still have not made a decision on Oswaldo Peraza, according to Kirschner. It’s possible they carry both Peraza and Volpe on the roster, but unless the Yankees bench Josh Donaldson or Gleyber Torres, or only play the kids part-time, there’s no way to get them both regular playing time. Methinks Peraza is headed back to Triple-A.

That’s unfortunate, Peraza is at the point in his career where he needs to face MLB competition to continue his development, but the best players should play. Peraza underwhelmed this spring (.190/.306/.310) and that left the door open for Volpe. If Peraza had hit, say, .290/.340/.450 this spring, does he get the shortstop job? Yeah, I think so. I think the Yankees came into the spring expecting to give Peraza the shortstop job, then Volpe took it.

“For the most part, he’s been alright. Yesterday, he didn’t have great at-bats,” Boone told Joe Trezza about Peraza on Thursday. When’s the last time Boone said that about a player, let alone a young player? Usually he says he likes the at-bats and thinks he’ll turn it around soon, etc. Judge spoke up on Volpe’s behalf and it seems like Boone really pounded the table for him too.

Waiting to announce Peraza’s roster status could indicate the Yankees are working on a trade (Isiah Kiner-Falefa for pitching depth?), but I think he’ll go back to Triple-A and wait for an injury to open playing time. Or wait for Volpe to play himself out of the lineup. It could happen! I don’t think it will happen, but it could. Bottom line, the shortstop job was there for the taking this spring, and Peraza didn’t take it. We’ll find out where he’s starting the season soon.

"The obvious exclamation point here is Anthony Volpe came into camp and took this position,” Brian Cashman told Hoch. “He should be congratulated. It was well played. He's earned the right to take that spot for the New York Yankees as we open the 2023 season and we're excited for him."

UPDATE: A few minutes after I hit publish, the Yankees announced Peraza has been optioned to Triple-A. Matt Krook too. Peraza will be back soon enough, and playing everyday with the RailRiders is better than sitting on the MLB bench.

4. Volpe’s lineup spot. Volpe has led off a ton this spring, though it is customary for rookies to start the season at the bottom of the order. Judge batted eighth on Opening Day 2017 and was hitting 3-4-5 by the end of April. Volpe has the skills to be an impact No. 1 or 2 hitter, but the Yankees will probably start him down in the lineup this season. I’m fine with it. I expect him to hit his way up the batting order in time. Nothing wrong with starting a rookie down in the order.

5. PPI pick. Because Volpe will be on the Opening Day roster, he can earn the Yankees one of those new Prospect Promotion Incentive draft picks. I wrote about the possibility in January. Evan Drellich (subs. req’d) has the PPI rules:

Teams who promote players in time to receive a full year of service, which is 172 days — so, Opening Day, or very shortly thereafter — have a chance at additional picks in the amateur draft … Players with 60 days of service or less, who have rookie eligibility and are included in two or more of the preseason top-100 prospect lists put out by Baseball America, MLB.com or ESPN, are eligible. If, in the time before they hit salary arbitration, those players go on to win Rookie of the Year, finish top three in MVP voting or top three in Cy Young voting, their team gets an amateur draft pick following the end of the first round. A player can only create one new amateur draft pick for his team over time.

Rookie eligibility and fewer than 60 days of service time? Check. Volpe has never been in the big leagues. Full year of service in 2023? Check, presumably. If Volpe doesn’t get a full year of service time, it means he was sent back to the minors, in which case not getting a PPI pick is the least of our worries. Two preseason top 100 lists? Check. Volpe was No. 3 on ESPN’s, No. 5 on MLB.com’s, and No. 14 on Baseball America’s. He only needed two but he made all three. Now he just needs to win an award, which is easier said than done. Volpe is eligible for a PPI pick though.

Julio Rodríguez got the Mariners a PPI pick with his Rookie of the Year win last year. It’s the No. 29 pick in the 2023 draft and comes with $2.6M or so in bonus pool money. One single draft pick down the line isn’t the greatest reward, but it’s better than nothing, and now Volpe can net the Yankees a PPI pick. That’s pretty cool. I hope he’s great and the Yankees get one.

6. What about service time? If you’ve come here expecting me to explain why it’s bad, actually, that the Yankees are starting Volpe’s service time clock, you’ve come to the wrong place. I believe the best players should be on the roster, period, and worrying about Volpe’s 2029 season when Judge, Gerrit Cole, et al are in their primes in 2023 doesn’t make sense to me.

There’s a mechanism in place to keep players once they've exhausted their six years of team control: signing them to a market rate contract as a free agent. The cold-blooded front office move is sending Volpe to Triple-A for 15 days to push his free agency back another year. That is lame as hell though, and aggressively player unfriendly. I’m glad the Yankees aren’t doing it. Service time manipulation is a stain on the sport. Volpe is right where he should be.

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