Quick thoughts after Luis Severino is shut down with a lat strain

Ugh, not again.

Yet another pitcher is hurt. Luis Severino has been shut down with a “low grade” right lat strain, Aaron Boone revealed Saturday morning. Severino missed more than two months with a right lat strain last season, and I will note the Yankees called that one “low grade” too. Assume a short absence at your own risk.

“The next thing is does he no-throw five days? Is it 6-7 days?” Boone told Greg Joyce. “That’s what we gotta wrap our arms around. If that’s shorter, it doesn’t knock him down too long. But obviously it’s going to put him in jeopardy to start the year.”

Boone said Severino first felt tightness in his lat during his arm care routine following Tuesday’s start, and when it lingered a few days, they sent him for tests. Severino will start the season on the injured list and Clarke Schmidt will start the second game of the year because it’s too late in camp to rearrange the rotation. Schmidt best lines up to start that game, so he’ll start that game.

Severino has gotten hit around this spring (15 IP, 15 H, 15 R, 6 BB, 23 K, 6 HR) though he struck out nine in four innings Tuesday, and looked good. His pitch data (velocity, spin, movement) is all in line with last season too. His location has not been good, that’s been his biggest problem, and maybe that’s related to the lat injury. I dunno. Doesn’t really matter now, does it?

Frankie Montas had shoulder surgery last month after being slowed by shoulder inflammation all winter. He won’t return until the second half, if at all. Carlos Rodón has a forearm problem and is just now starting to ramp back up. He figures to be out until late April or May. Tommy Kahnle and Lou Trivino are hurt too. They’re weeks away. Arms keep dropping.

The Yankees will begin the season without three of their five projected starters and two veteran middle relievers. Considering the pitching staff – both the rotation and bullpen – is the strength of the team, that ain’t great. The Yankees are pushing the limits of their depth and it's not even April yet. Here are a few thoughts on Severino’s injury and what it means for the Yankees.

1. The April schedule. Before we dig into Severino’s potential replacement, let’s take a second to figure out exactly how much they’ll need the guy in April. The Yankees have three off-days the first four and a half weeks of the season, and one is the off-day after Opening Day. This couldn’t be one of those years with 4-5 off-days in April, huh?

Here is the April schedule and an aggressive pitching plan in which Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Domingo Germán, and Schmidt start every fifth day, and the No. 5 starter is pushed back as much as possible (full-size image):

Again, that’s an aggressive plan. We’re using off-days to push the No. 5 starter back rather than give everyone an extra day of rest. The four regular starters are going as often as possible. There’s a little wiggle room there (might be best to start the No. 5 on April 20th against the Angels rather than April 22nd against the Blue Jays) but not a whole lot.

Maybe Rodón and/or Severino can make it back in time for that April 27th start? In that case the Yankees would only need their fill-in No. 5 starter (whoever it is) to make three starts: April 5th vs. Phillies, April 12th at Guardians, and April 22nd vs. Blue Jays. That’s not too bad, but again, that is an aggressive pitching plan with the other four starters working very hard in April.

The Yankees typically ease their starters into action early in the season, plus they don’t want to risk Cortes aggravating his hamstring. I’m sure they’ll use off-days to rearrange things slightly, but I think there’s a good chance they go with a normal five-man rotation in April rather than avoid the No. 5 starter at all costs. The pitching plan above is the absolute most they can avoid the No. 5 the first few weeks of the season. Maybe they'll luck into a few well-timed rainouts.

“We’re still working through that right now,” Boone told Bryan Hoch about the rotation plan early in the season. “We’ve gone through a lot of permutations of how we would piece it together roster-wise in that first 10 days to two weeks.”

2. The fill-in No. 5 starter. Sure would be nice to have Ken Waldichuk or Hayden Wesneski (or JP Sears) right now, huh? If you’ve read me long enough, you know I’m not against trading prospects. If anything, I think the Yankees have held onto their prospects too tightly the last few years, most notably at the 2019 trade deadline. They did nothing despite obvious needs that year.

The Yankees traded away Waldichuk and Wesneski (and Sears) at the deadline last season and Montas (Waldichuk and Sears trade) and Scott Effross (Wesneski trade) suffered arm injuries before going home for the winter. Montas and Effross will be non-factors in 2023. Well, maybe Montas can come back later in the year, but after shoulder surgery, I won’t hold my breath. I'm not against trading prospects, but it would be nice if the prospect trades actually improved the team.

ANYWAY, Boone mentioned Jhony Brito, my No. 20 prospect, as a candidate to replace Severino, and I think he’s the best pitcher for the job (Brito is starting in Severino's place Sunday). He’s had Triple-A success, he won’t beat himself with walks, and he’s gotten stretched out this spring. Pairing him with an opener wouldn’t be a bad idea*, but Brito is the best bet to give the Yankees competent innings in April.

* The No. 5 starter will face the Phillies in his first start. Even with Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins hurt, you’re looking at Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto in the first inning. So yeah, an opener (Ron Marinaccio?) wouldn’t be a bad idea that game.

Lefty Matt Krook made 22 starts and seven bulk relief appearances behind an opener in Triple-A last year, though the Yankees view him as a bullpen guy because he struggles to throw strikes. He worked just one inning in his most recent Grapefruit League appearance, so it appears the conversion to short relief is underway. (They could always go back to stretching Krook out.)

Randy Vásquez, my No. 10 prospect, is making a Grapefruit League spot start Saturday and that was the plan even before Severino’s injury. Cole pitched Friday and Severino was scheduled to start Sunday, lining them up to start the first and second games of the regular season. Saturday is a fill-in spring start lined up for what will be the off-day after Opening Day.

Because he’s on the 40-man roster and stretched out, Vásquez is a candidate to make starts in April, though I think the Yankees want to avoid it. Vásquez has yet to pitch in Triple-A and he was good more than great in Double-A the last year and a half. I think the rotation depth chart looks like this with Montas, Rodón, and Severino all hurt:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Nestor Cortes
3. RHP Domingo Germán
4. RHP Clarke Schmidt
5. RHP Jhony Brito
6. LHP Tanner Tully or RHP Ryan Weber behind an opener
7. RHP Randy Vásquez

The top four are the top four, Brito is the logical candidate to be No. 5, then it’s patchwork time. Tully or Weber (or RHP Sean Boyle?) are candidates to come up and make a spot start, then go back down. They’re not guys you want in the rotation and starting every fifth day. If the Yankees need Vásquez, they’ll use him, but I think they prefer to let him continue developing in Triple-A.

Barring an outside addition, I think Brito’s the guy. I would be surprised if he gets passed over in favor of someone else currently in the organization, to be honest. Brito for 3-4 starts until Rodón or Severino returns is doable. The Yankees can manage that. But, if these turn into long-term injuries with Rodón and Severino, the Yankees will have to look outside the organization for help.

(Brito has already been optioned to minor league camp, but the Yankees can put him on the Opening Day roster as injury replacement for Severino. Otherwise they would have to wait the 15 days to bring him back.)

3. Free agent and trade candidates. There are several recognizable names still sitting in free agency. There’s a reason they’re still unsigned (they aren’t very good), but hey, at least you’ve heard of them. Here are the top unsigned free agent pitchers by projected 2023 WAR:

1. LHP Mike Minor: +0.8 WAR (6.06 ERA and 6.18 FIP in 2022)
2. RHP Michael Pineda: +0.5 WAR (5.79 ERA and 6.13 FIP in 2022)
3. RHP Chris Archer: +0.4 WAR (4.56 ERA and 4.49 FIP in 2022)
4. LHP Dallas Keuchel: +0.3 WAR (9.20 ERA and 5.22 FIP in 2022)
5. RHP Aníbal Sánchez: +0.2 WAR (4.28 ERA and 5.77 FIP in 2022)

I kinda dig Archer as a once through the order multi-inning reliever, but yeah, those guys were all bad last year. And, even if the Yankees signed one of them, are any of them ready to pitch? Could the Yankees slot them into the rotation a week or two into the season? No, probably not. They’d have to make a Triple-A start or three to prepare, so they’re not immediate help.

Article XX(B) guys are the best free agent options. Those are players with at least six years of service time on minor league contracts. Their minor league deals automatically include an opt out five days before Opening Day (that’s today). They can go back into free agency after being told they won’t make the team. Here are the Article XX(B) starters and their spring numbers:

• RHP Chad Kuhl, Nationals: 17.2 IP, 18 H, 10 R, 4 BB, 15 K, 3 HR
• LHP Tommy Milone, Mariners: 2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 0 HR
• RHP Aaron Sanchez, Twins: 8.2 IP, 14 H, 15 R, 3 BB, 13 K, 2 HR
• RHP Julio Teheran, Padres: 15.2 IP, 16 H, 9 R, 2 BB, 16 K, 2 HR

Cade Cavalli’s Tommy John surgery opens the door for Kuhl to make Washington’s rotation. I’m not sure what’s up with Milone and his spring workload, but he pitched in a minor league game Wednesday, so he’s not hurt. Sanchez and Teheran seem cooked. I really liked Sanchez once upon a time. He just hasn’t been the same since shoulder surgery in 2019.

Danny Duffy (Rangers) and Joe Ross (Giants) are Article XX(B) guys as well, though they are working their way back from injuries and have not pitched this spring. Chase Anderson (Reds) is another one, but he’s already accepted a Triple-A assignment, per Bobby Nightengale. This is as good as it gets in free agency, which is to say it isn’t good at all. Not much help to be had there.

As for the trade market, the Isiah Kiner-Falefa for Chris Flexen hypothetical became a bit more realistic Friday when J.P. Crawford fouled a pitch into his foot. He’ll go for x-rays Saturday, according to Ryan Divish. Utility man Dylan Moore will miss several weeks with an oblique injury, so Crawford is the only healthy shortstop on the Mariners’ 40-man roster. Losing him for any length of time would leave GM Jerry Dipoto little choice but to go outside the organization for a stopgap shortstop.

Other potential trade candidates include guys like Adrian Houser (Brewers) and Dakota Hudson (Cardinals), who have seven-figure salaries and have been bumped down the depth chart (Houser to the bullpen and Hudson to Triple-A). Maybe the Braves would trade Ian Anderson? He’s already been sent to Triple-A and is a reclamation project more than a plug-and-play starter, but I’d take a shot on a talented 24-year-old. Absolutely. Not much out there otherwise.

The Yankees have lost enough starters to injury this spring that I wouldn’t rule out an outside addition before Opening Day. It will just be really difficult. Free agency doesn’t offer much and there aren’t many teams eager to trade extra starters before the season even begins. Flexen is probably the best realistically available starter, and he’s a warm body more than someone who will meaningfully contribute. At this point though, another warm body helps the Yankees.

4. Severino’s contract year. This stinks for Severino. This is his free agent year and nothing will affect his free agent stock more than his health. He turned 29 last month and his stuff is still so lively that even if he slogged through a 4.50 ERA season, teams would jump on him as a one-year contract prove yourself guy (like Noah Syndergaard this past offseason).

Severino has made plenty of money in his career already ($47M or so by the end of the year), but still, players only have so many years in this game and only so much time to cash in. This winter might be Severino’s only chance at a nice free agent contract. Jameson Taillon’s four-year, $68M deal feels like the floor for Severino with good health and strong performance in 2023.

It is a long season and a late Spring Training injury does not crush Severino’s free agent stock. It certainly isn’t a good start to his year though. I hope Severino recovers quickly, stays healthy and performs well, and earns himself a nice big contract this winter. That would be best for him and his wallet, and best for the Yankees and their World Series hopes as well. Get well soon, Sevy.

“He was bummed out a little bit yesterday,” Boone told Gary Phillips. “He’s worked his tail off to put himself in a good spot here, and to have it happen a week before the season has got to be frustrating for him.”

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