February 9th, 2023: Non-Roster Invitees, Not Top 30 Prospects, Mailbag

PSA: World Baseball Classic rosters will be announced during a live MLB Network broadcast at 6pm ET on Thursday. I can’t say I’ll sit and watch it, but at least we’ll get official word on who’s going. The Yankees blocked Luis Severino from the WBC. Nestor Cortes (USA), Kyle Higashioka (USA), Jonathan Loáisiga (Nicaragua), Wandy Peralta (Dominican Republic), and Gleyber Torres (Venezuela) are on preliminary rosters. There might be others too. We’ll find out for sure Thursday. Now let’s get to today’s post, which is a day early because Friday is Top 30 Prospects day.

1. Yankees announce non-roster invitees. At long last, the Yankees have announced their non-roster invitees to Spring Training. There are 29 of ‘em. Add in the 40-man roster guys and there will be a nice 69 players in big league camp, though some will be away at the World Baseball Classic and some are injured (Scott Effross, Luis Gil, etc.), and won’t be full participants. Here are this year’s non-roster invitees:

I had 30 players on my non-roster preview and 23 of the 30 got an invite to camp. I’m not patting myself on the back. A lot of these guys were obvious non-roster candidates. I’m just taking stock of where I went right and where I went wrong. Here are the seven players I thought would get a non-roster invite, but did not:

RHP Clayton Beeter
RHP Carson Coleman
C Antonio Gomez
RHP Zac Houston
IF Delvin Pérez
RHP Will Warren
Catcher TBA

I suppose Narvaez could qualify as the catcher TBA, but he’s been in the system a while now, and my thinking with the TBA spot was the Yankees would bring in a catcher from outside the organization. That didn’t happen. Gomez not getting an invite isn’t too surprising. He’s a just turned 21-year-old catcher yet to play above Low-A. I thought he’d sneak in, but nope.

Beeter, Coleman, and Warren are legitimate prospects who spent most of last season in Double-A. Usually that equals a non-roster invite, but not here. Not getting an MLB camp invite doesn’t necessarily mean the organization isn’t high on them (I know the Yankees love Warren). It likely just means the Yankees don’t see them getting much work during Grapefruit League play, so they’ll be better served in minor league camp. Or maybe they really aren’t high on them. We’ll find out one way or the other eventually.

(As a reminder, teams can – and the Yankees frequently do – add players to their non-roster list throughout the spring. Trevor Stephan was a late addition to camp in 2019, for example. Perhaps Beeter and/or Warren will be a non-roster invitee after all.)

Not sure what’s up with Houston and Pérez. They signed minor league deals a few weeks back and I figured both would get non-roster invites. Instead, neither did. Houston has been in Triple-A since 2018 and Pérez has been a non-roster invite in the past with the Cardinals. Houston and Pérez not getting an invite to big league camp surprised me. They seemed like shoo-ins (not that these are major omissions).

As I wrote in the preview, I didn’t expect Spencer Jones to get a non-roster invite to camp, and, sure enough, he didn’t. Wells (2021) and James Kaprielian (2016) are the only first round picks the Yankees brought to camp as a non-roster player the spring after they drafted since at least 2006. Jones will get his chance. For now, he’s still a relatively inexperienced player who will go to minor league camp. That’s the appropriate place for him.

Those are the seven players (really six players and one TBA spot) I expected to get a non-roster invite but did not. Now here are the non-roster players who will be in big league camp that I didn’t have in my preview:

IF Jesús Bastidas
RHP Sean Boyle
RHP Ian Hamilton
C Carlos Narvaez
LHP D.J. Snelten
RHP Mitch Spence

The Yankees signed Hamilton this past weekend. They signed Snelten last August and he hasn’t pitched anywhere since 2019, when he was with the independent Chicago Dogs. Snelten has a little MLB time (4.1 innings with the Giants in 2018) and I gotta think he’s been hurt the last few years given the layoff. Major Lucas Luetge vibes here. Journeyman lefty with middling velocity who’s been out of the game a while? Snelten’s throwing 65 innings with a 2.45 ERA this year.

I’ve been talking up Boyle and Spence as pitching depth for what feels like three years now. They have Triple-A time and could conceivably be emergency call ups this summer. Bastidas hit 18 homers in Double-A last year after hitting 11 homers from 2016-21. He might be the next Diego Castillo or Hoy Jun Park, the nondescript infield prospect who discovers power and becomes a trade chip. Narvaez, 24, is an organizational depth catcher who’s yet to play above High-A. He’ll be in big league camp to help catch bullpen sessions. That’s about it.

The non-roster headliners are of course the top prospects: Jasson Domínguez, Anthony Volpe, and Wells. (Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira are on the 40-man roster and will be in camp automatically). The Yankees say Volpe will be given a chance to win the shortstop job. Not sure I believe them, but there’s no harm in dangling the carrot. The non-roster invitees are in and Spring Training is only a few days away. Hooray for that.

2. Not Top 30 Prospects. Pitchers and catchers report Tuesday and that means it's prospect season here at RAB. My annual Top 30 Prospects List will be published Friday morning (here is last year’s), and today we’re going to dig into my Not Top 30 Prospects. These are not prospects 31-35. They are merely five prospects outside the Top 30 who I think could jump into next year’s list with a strong developmental season in 2023.

Just one of last year’s Not Top 30 Prospects made this year’s Top 30 and he barely it. I need to do better. I’ve been doing these lists since 2009 and last year was the first time no Not Top 30 Prospect jumped into the Top 30, and this year one barely made it. Historically, two is a good outcome for me. Barely one the last two years is a poor showing. Clean it up, Axisa.

Anyway, as I said, these are not prospects 31-35. They are five prospects who are trending up but are not quite Top 30 caliber yet, at least in my eyes. Here are this year’s Not Top 30 Prospects, listed alphabetically.

IF Keiner Delgado

Date of Birth: Jan. 5th, 2004 (age 19)
Acquired: Signed May 2021 out of Venezuela (unknown bonus)
2022 Stats: .310/.504/.506 (178 wRC+), 3 HR, 34 SB, 24.4 BB%, 11.8 K% (238 PA in DSL)
Projected 2023 level: Extended Spring Training and Rookie

Delgado had a ridiculous pro debut in the Dominican Summer League – those are his correct strikeout and walk rates, I didn’t transpose them – and is a switch-hitting bat control freak who can manipulate his swing to hit seemingly any pitch in any location. If you or I stand at the plate and don’t swing, we might run a 10% walk rate in the DSL because pitchers are wild down there, but Delgado makes good swing decisions and is very fast.

Listed at 5-foot-8 and 145 lbs., Delgado currently has 20 power on the 20-80 scouting scale and may not grow into much more. His top end exit velocities are below average for his age group, so his offensive game figures to revolve around singles, walks, and stolen bases. From what I gather, opinions are split on defense. Some think he can stick at short, others see him as a second baseman. Delgado’s stat line will likely always be better than the scouting report (he was on the older side for the DSL), but the skills are there to be a rich man’s Ronald Torreyes.

RHP Omar Gonzalez

Date of Birth: July 25th, 2005 (age 17)
Acquired: Signed January 2022 out of Panama ($135,000 bonus)
2022 Stats: 20.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 9 BB, 36 K, 0 HR in DSL
Projected 2023 level: Extended Spring Training and Rookie

The 2022 international class is shaping up to be a lot more than SS Roderick Arias. Gonzalez combines present stuff with projection. He’s listed at 6-foot-4 and 175 lbs. and is a good athlete, and his fastball currently sits 91-93 mph with a few 94s. It’s a high spin pitch that plays at the top of the zone. Gonzalez has a curveball and is learning the sweeper, and his changeup is a dead fish in the low-70s. Here’s video.

I’m kinda cheating here because Gonzalez was in the Top 30 in early iterations, but I decided to wait a year on him because a dead arm/shoulder issue ended his season in July, and because his secondary pitches and control lack refinement. Gonzalez is talented yet raw, which is in no way surprising given his age. In a year or two, he could be a capital-G Guy.

2B Jared Serna

Date of Birth: June 1st, 2002 (age 20)
Acquired: Signed July 2019 out of Mexico (unknown bonus)
2022 Stats: .274/.397/.458 (140 wRC+), 6 HR, 17 SB, 13.7 BB%, 19.1 K% (204 PA at Rk, A-)
Projected 2023 level: Low-A

Jared is neither the best nor most famous Serna in the system – his younger cousin, RHP Luis Serna, is (spoiler) in the Top 30 – though he’s a solid prospect himself. He was described to me as a “loud sounds” hitter last summer thanks to impressive exit velocities, which he produces often because he swings at the right pitches and has a low in-zone whiff rate. Serna is a righty bat and a dead pull hitter who could stand to focus on the middle of the field a little more.

The bat is the only calling card. Serna is bigger than his listed 5-foot-8 and 165 lbs., and he’s not a good runner and is just an okay athlete. He lacks the arm for third base and the range for second, so first base could be his ultimate destination. There’s enough thump and feel to hit here that Serna could make it work. Clearly though, there’s a lot riding on his bat.

C Engelth Urena

Date of Birth: Aug. 17th, 2004 (age 18)
Acquired: Signed January 2022 out of the Dominican Republic ($275,000 bonus)
2022 Stats: .226/.351/.581 (139 wRC+), 3 HR, 0 SB, 13.5 BB%, 16.2 K% (37 PA in DSL)
Projected 2023 level: Extended Spring Training and Rookie

Another member of the 2022 international class, Urena is a converted outfielder who is still new to catching, though it looks like it’ll stick. He moves well behind the plate and has a strong arm, but his receiving has a long way to go, which is understandable. Urena has a good build (6-foot-0 and 196 lbs.) and should have no trouble holding up at the position. And, if catching doesn’t work out, Urena should be able to move back to the outfield without much trouble.

Offensively, the righty swinging Urena has innate hitting ability and good power, and the Yankees consider him one of the better pure bats in the system. A foul tip broke his hand in his very first pro inning last summer, and although Urena made it back in time to play a few games at the end of the season, he didn’t get many at-bats. There’s a lot of work to be done behind the plate, and, if it clicks, Urena could really shoot up prospect rankings in the coming years.

LHP Joel Valdez

Date of Birth: April 28th, 2000 (age 22)
Acquired: Nick Nelson/Donny Sands trade with Phillies (Nov. 19th, 2021)
2022 Stats: 3.52 ERA (3.47 FIP), 34.5 K%, 13.8 BB% (53.2 IP at Rk, A-)
Projected 2023: Low-A and High-A, maybe Double-A

Valdez was an older international signing (he signed with the Phillies as an 18-year-old in Sept. 2018) and then he lost a bunch of time to the pandemic, so it wasn’t until August of his age 22 season that he got out of rookie ball. The Yankees picked him up in a 40-man roster cleanup trade last offseason, turned him over to their pitching development folks, and they overhauled his arsenal.

Specifically, the Yankees replaced Valdez’s four-seamer with a two-seamer, had him shelve his iffy breaking ball, and taught him a changeup that he mastered quickly. The fastball sits mid-90s and the changeup is a power changeup in the mid-to-upper-80s that dives right as it reaches the plate. The changeup gets a lot of chases below the zone and whiffs in the strike zone.

Last season was the first time Valdez had a hard time throwing strikes, so perhaps once he gets more comfortable with his new arsenal, his control will return. The Yankees will stick with him as a starter just to get him innings, but he looks like a potential fastball/changeup reliever. Valdez will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after 2023 and could be a sneaky protection candidate.

* * *

As long as the dead arm/shoulder issue proves to be nothing significant, Gonzalez has the best chance to jump into the Top 30 next year, followed by Delgado and Urena. Serna is similar to IF Andres Chaparro, though he’s further down the ladder and performed much better at this age. Valdez is a personal cheeseball. Feels like he’ll have big league value down the line even if he’s not a standout prospect. Not sure I’ll ever repeat my banner 2019 Not Top 30 crop, which included three big leaguers with a chance for a fourth, but I feel good about this year’s group. We’ll see how I fared in 12 months.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Baseball Prospectus unveiled a new defensive stat, Range Defense Added (RDA), earlier this week. It uses Statcast data and better isolates the fielder’s skill than DRS, OAA, etc. Here’s the nuts and bolts:

RDA arguably is trying to answer a slightly different question than DRS and OAA do. DRS and OAA seem to be asking whether a particular play was above- or below-average for that fielder under each system’s assumptions about the challenges of that particular play. RDA, on the other hand, asks whether a fielder’s overall play was consistently above- or below-average in light of the extent to which outs should have been made by somebody on those plays.

The OAA/DRS approach has the potential to give you more detail, sometimes, about what a particular fielder actually did. But the RDA approach arguably tells you more about how a fielder would be expected to perform under typical circumstances, and at the very least establishes an informed prior for how well a fielder is performing. Answers to both questions offer value, and the more answers readers have, the better.

I haven’t had time to really dig into RDA yet, but it rates Gleyber Torres as the third best defensive second basemen in 2022. The other defensive numbers have him middle of the pack, if not lower. Also, the RDA components jibe with everything else we know about Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s defense. He’s very good at getting to the ball. The problem is everything that happens after that. Once I have more time to sit down and understand it, I’ll probably incorporate RDA into my analysis. For now, I welcome it. Evolution of defensive stats (all stats, really) is necessary and important work.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Chris asks: I've seen it suggested that Severino being held out of the WBC, while it would seem to be a sensible decision for an injury-prone pitcher still trying to build up his IP total, means that there will be no chance he returns to the Yankees in '24. The argument is that this decision will be the final straw for a player who is still being mad about the 60 day IL stint last year, and being pulled from his no-hit bid. Do you think that's true? And if it does mean that he's gone, what do you feel the chance of him returning was before this? And which Yankee who is in the WBC do you most worry about getting hurt? Nestor? Loaisiga? Is Rizzo going to play for Italy? For me it's Nestor, given.his importance last year and the fact that his postseason essentially ended with an injury.

No, come on. This is the kinda thing sports radio feasts on, and while Luis Severino may be unhappy about being held out of the World Baseball Classic the same way he was unhappy about being put on the 60-day injured list last year, it won’t matter come free agent time. He will make the best decision for him and his family (which usually means taking the most money) and not hold grudges – grudges that take the New York Yankees out of the bidding – over the WBC.

I’m not sure Severino returns next year, but it has nothing to do with the WBC. Barring another major injury or a collapse in performance, Severino’s probably a $20M a year pitcher, and I don’t think the Yankees will pay that given how much they’ve sunk into Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. Severino leaving will be a money thing (much) more than a WBC thing. I think the chances he returns are less than 50/50 because of the money. Maybe 30/70? I don’t think blocking him from the WBC changed his chances of returning next year even a tiny little bit.

As for who I’m worried about getting hurt in the WBC, can I cheat and give two answers? I’m most worried about Nestor Cortes just because he’s so important to the Yankees. Losing him would be a significant blow. That said, he’s never had arm problems. His groin gave him trouble last year (twice) and it was relatively minor (both times). I’m most worried about arm injuries that could lead to potential career-altering surgeries. Groin injuries can be bad too, but eh. Not as worrisome.

My second answer is Jonathan Loáisiga, who has a long arm injury history. I think the Yankees can survive losing Loáisiga more than they can survive losing Cortes, but Loáisiga is one of the main dudes in the late innings. I try not to worry about this stuff because it’s completely out of my control, but yeah, the WBC and Loáisiga’s arm injury history doesn’t make me feel great. Also, losing Wandy Peralta to a WBC injury would be sneaky bad seeing how he’s the only established lefty reliever on the 40-man roster.

(Ben Lindbergh dug through the data following the last WBC in 2017 and found little evidence of an increase in injury rate among WBC players. Some guys are gonna get hurt playing baseball. It is what it is. A lot of guys will get hurt during Spring Training games too.)

Jon asks: I was thinking a lot about defense based on your post last week. My question is, if defense was all that mattered...not offense, or 40 man stuff or contracts, etc.... how would you rank the Yankees CF capable players (at any level) in terms of ability in CF right now? I assume Bader is still the top choice, but where do Judge, Hicks, Florial, Ortega, and the kids (Dominguez, Pereira, Dunham) all rank relative to each other right now? Anybody close to Bader defensively?

Harrison Bader is clearly No. 1 if we’re talking about defense and only defense. He’s one of the best defensive outfielders in the sport. Based only on defense, I would rank the organizational center field depth chart like so:

1. Harrison Bader
(gap)
2. Estevan Florial
3. Brandon Lockridge
(gap)
4. Everson Pereira
5. Jasson Domínguez
6. Aaron Judge
(gap)
7. Aaron Hicks
8. Jeisson Rosario
9. Rafael Ortega

Bader is in his own tier, Florial and Lockridge are in their own tier after that (Lockridge is a very good defender, though he stopped hitting last year), and then there’s everyone else. I don’t feel overly confident in those 4-6 rankings and I think you could argue almost any order. I went with the kids with youthful legs over the 6-foot-7 soon-to-be 31-year-old.

Hicks, Ortega, and Rosario are the “former everyday center fielder who’s slowed down, but can still do it if you need him to” tier. Somewhere beneath them are the low minors kids like Spencer Jones and Madison Santos, who are athletic and good defenders, but have never played in a ballpark with a third deck. Those reads can be tricky. We’ve seen Florial, as gifted a defender as anyone in the system, have some trouble with them the last two years.

Mike asks: When you pointed out that April, 2021 and September, 2022 were clearly the 2 best months of Higashioka's career, it made me realize just how bad he was from May, 2021 through August, 2022. My math says that his slash line was .179/.227/.334 across 363 plate appearances during that timespan. Was that the worst offensive performance by a Yankee, with anywhere near that many PAs, since Tony Womack?

Kyle Higashioka hit .258/.379/.710 (187 wRC+) in April 2021 and .339/.356/.536 (153 wRC+) in Sept. 2022. In between, he hit .179/.227/.334 (54 wRC+) in 363 plate appearances. Mike’s math is right. There is a minimum acceptable standard on offense and Higashioka didn’t meet it for a long stretch of time, even as a great defensive catcher.

Womack was one of the worst Yankees ever, hitting .249/.276/.280 (47 wRC+) in 2005, and he did that while making 44 of his 90 defensive appearances in a corner outfield spot. Sheesh. Higashioka played 119 games between April 2021 and Sept. 2022. Here are the worst 100-game spans by a Yankee since Womack (min. 300 plate appearances):

Batting Average
1. Stephen Drew: .160 (Aug. 6th, 2014 to June 18th, 2015)
2. Kyle Higashioka: .169 (April 24th, 2021 to July 17th, 2022)
3. Aaron Hicks: .198 (April 19th, 2022 to Sept. 14th, 2022)
4. Chris Stewart: .205 (Aug. 16th, 2012 to Sept. 5th, 2013)
5. José Molina: .206 (April 19th, 2008 to July 20th, 2009)

On-Base Percentage
1. Kyle Higashioka: .219 (April 22nd, 2021 to July 15th, 2022)
2. Stephen Drew: .223 (Aug. 4th, 2014 to June 16th, 2015)
3. Austin Romine: .248 (Sept. 3rd, 2013 to June 12th, 2017)
4. Miguel Andújar: .254 (May 5th, 2019 to Sept. 17th, 2022)
5. José Molina: .263 (April 9th, 2008 to July 20th, 2009)

Slugging Percentage
1. Chris Stewart: .267 (Aug. 16th, 2012 to Sept. 5th, 2013)
2. Aaron Hicks: .280 (April 19th, 2022 to Sept. 14th, 2022)
3. José Molina: .284 (June 9th, 2008 to Sept. 27th, 2009)
4. Austin Romine: .288 (Aug. 13th, 2016 to May 2nd, 2018)
5. Jayson Nix: .291 (Aug. 17th, 2012 to Aug. 18th, 2013)

OPS
1. Kyle Higashioka: .543 (May 4th, 2021 to July 31st, 2022)
2. Stephen Drew: .544 (Aug. 4th, 2014 to June 16th, 2015)
3. Chris Stewart: .551 (Aug. 16th, 2012 to Sept. 5th, 2013)
4. José Molina: .553 (April 19th, 2008 to July 20th, 2009)
5. Austin Romine: .559 (July 22nd, 2016 to April 7th, 2018)

I ignored overlapping spans, otherwise Drew owns the 11 worst and 15 of the 17 worst 100-game batting average spans since Womack. Some of these spans cover long stretches of time, so not everyone above was a full-time player, or even a part-timer. Romine’s .248 OBP spans 100 games across five seasons, for example.

Molina is the only player to appear on all four lists, though Drew and Higashioka rank 1-2 on three of the four lists. With their OPS so close, I’m willing to be forgiving with Higashioka because he’s a catcher who takes a beating behind the plate. I say Drew had the worst 100-game offensive stretch by a Yankee since Womack, with Higashioka and Molina next in line. Fair? I think so.

Bill asks: I was just reading a post from the "Start spreading the news" blog regarding Graig Nettles and the HOF. This got me wondering: Why no love from the Yankees for one of their all-time great players? True, he may not be in the rarefied air of the Babe, Gehrig, DiMaggio, or even Jeter and Mo, but he's close. The SSTN crew put together a good argument for the HOF, and that's definitely debatable. But I'm not sure there should be any debate that he's worthy of Yankee greatness and recognition (Number retired, monument plaque, etc). His career stats, WS rings, and Yankee captaincy can't be questioned. What are your thoughts?

I think Nettles would have received more Hall of Fame support now than he did when he was eligible (he fell off the ballot in 1997, his fourth year of eligibility). JAWS says he's right at the Hall of Fame standard for third baseman, and Nettles lost some time to the 1972 and 1981 strikes. The work stoppages might’ve kept him under 400 homers (finished with 390) and +70 WAR (finished with +68.0). Nettles deserved a better showing on the Hall of Fame ballot.

As for the Yankees, yes, they should recognize Nettles. His No. 9 is already retired for Roger Maris, so it would be easy to double-retire it for Nettles as well. The number has been out of circulation for almost 40 years already. Even if the Yankees don’t want to retire No. 9 again, I think Nettles not having a plaque in Monument Park is egregious. Consider his resume:

• 11 seasons with the Yankees (1973-83), four AL pennants (1976-78, 1981), two World Series titles (1977-78).
• Five-time All-Star with Yankees (1975, 1977-80), two top six finishes in MVP voting (1977-78), ALCS MVP in 1981.
• Top 20 in franchise history in games (1,535), total bases (2,388), home runs (250), RBI (834), WAR (+44.4), and a bunch of other stuff.
• Captain from 1982-84.

I mean geez, what more does a guy have to do to get a plaque? Tino Martinez has a plaque, but not Nettles? The best third basemen in Yankees history are Álex Rodríguez and Nettles, and there’s a big gap between them and everyone else. The next best third baseman in team history is probably Red Rolfe? Home Run Baker?

Nettles and the Yankees didn’t part ways on good terms – Nettles criticized George Steinbrenner in his book, which is believed to have contributed to his trade to the Padres in 1984 – but is that grudge still being held? Nettles has been back to Yankee Stadium for Old Timers’ Day, though apparently they stopped inviting him a few years ago. No idea what that’s about. Feels like the book stuff should be water under the bridge by now. I think Nettles deserves at least a plaque. He’s not in the Babe Ruth/Mickey Mantle tier, but he’s one of the best Yankees ever.

(This is a good time for my periodic “Yogi Berra and Whitey Ford deserve monuments” spiel. There are six monuments in Monument Park (Mantle, Ruth, Steinbrenner, Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, Miller Huggins) and all were dedicated posthumously, and all except Huggins within a year of their death (Huggins was three years later). Yogi died in 2015 and Ford in 2020, yet nothing. If those two aren’t monument worthy, I have no idea who is. Someone should tell the Yankees they’ll make a killing between ceremonies, giveaways, and promotional items. Maybe that’ll wake them up.)

Sam asks: Not a Yankee question, specifically. It was revealed today the Giants are going to let (former Yankee!) Ronald Guzman give it a go as a two-way player. Let's assume that he remains the same level on offense and develops into an OK left-handed reliever. What is the value of a mediocre first base/DH type who is also a mediocre reliever? We all know that Ohtani's value is through the roof because he's elite on both sides, but would you keep an average or even slightly above average reliever off your roster to make space for one who is slightly worse on the mound but can also hit a little?

The Giants signed Guzmán to a minor league deal and are bringing him to camp as a two-way player. He started the conversion with Triple-A Scranton last year – Miguel Andújar called him “Guzmáni” as a nod to Shohei Ohtani – and spent most of the summer throwing bullpen sessions, though he did get into a game at the end of the year (three batters, two walks, one strikeout). San Francisco will give him a chance to build on it this spring.

Guzmán’s value as a two-way player is tied up in his ability to be a 14th pitcher in the era of the 13-pitcher limit. Every player on the roster must be designated as a position player or pitcher, and there are rules for qualifying as a two-way player. For now, Guzmán qualifies as a position player only, so the Giants could carry the full complement of 13 pitchers plus Guzmán on the bench as a low leverage arm, or even something more than that if he’s a good pitcher.

The thing is, Guzmán is not much of a hitter. He’s a career .225/.302/.410 (83 wRC+) big league hitter and last year’s .255/.344/.478 (116 wRC+) line with the RailRiders doesn’t stand out for a first base-only guy with roughly 2,000 plate appearances between Triple-A and MLB. I’m not sure I want to give him at-bats. If there were no universal DH and you still had to pinch-hit for pitchers regularly, then sure, Guzmán would be a good bench option. But now? Eh.

Several others have tried the two-way player conversion (Matt Davidson, Brett Eibner, etc.) and it didn’t work because a) being a two-way player is really hard, and b) none of them were worth rostering in the first place. You have to pitch and hit reasonably well for the two-way thing to be worthwhile, otherwise you’re forcing at-bats or innings (or both) on someone who’s game is lacking in that area. Again, how many at-bats do you want to give Guzmán to get his arm?

Just to use familiar names, Guzmán as a two-way player could resemble Mike Ford and Joely Rodríguez. A lefty hitting platoon first base/DH type and a hard-throwing second or third lefty in the bullpen. Some quick and dirty numbers:

Ford best season: +1.0 WAR in 2019
Rodríguez best season: +0.4 WAR in 2020

Ford in 2022: -0.4 WAR in 149 PA
Rodríguez in 2022: -0.2 WAR in 50.1 IP

Combine their best seasons and hey, that’s a nifty little player. You can use that guy. Combine their 2022s and you’re left wondering why you thought this was a good idea. Guzmán likely is what he is as a hitter at this point in his career. He would have to be a pretty decent reliever to make up for the value he gives back at the plate, and be worth a roster spot overall.

When I first wrote about Guzmán trying to become a two-way player last year, I said I thought he might be better off making a full conversion to pitching. He’s a lefty and he hit 96 mph during his pitching appearance last year. Hard-throwing lefties get chance after chance. Being able to hit some makes him more valuable, sure, but he’s a low impact position player. Might be better for Guzmán to focus his efforts on the mound and try to carve out a second phase to his career.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)