February 3rd, 2023: Loáisiga, Higashioka, Fenter, Mailbag

Top 30 Prospects List update: It’s on track to be published next Friday, Feb. 10th. The Friday before pitchers and catchers report, as always. Friday’s regularly scheduled post will run Thursday and include the Not Top 30 Prospects, then the following week I’ll have stuff on the prospects who fell out of the Top 30, plus some others to know. Now here’s today’s post.

1. The case for making Loáisiga the closer. All things considered, the Yankees have handled the seemingly impossible task of replacing Mariano Rivera very well. They’ve had at least one All-Star reliever every year since Rivera retired in 2013, and other than short in-season spurts here and there, they haven’t had a bona fide closer crisis post-Mo.

Of course, throwing money at peak Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, and Andrew Miller is a good way to avoid late-inning trouble, and hey, they’re the Yankees. They can afford to throw money at their problems. Barring a surprise move between now and Opening Day, 2023 will be the first time the Yankees begin a season without a $10M+ reliever on the roster since 2015 (Miller was at $9M that year).

The Yankees went into last postseason without a dedicated closer and instead used Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Wandy Peralta as a three-headed bullpen monster. Those three threw 24 of the team’s 34 postseason reliever innings, or 71%. That’s how it should be, right? Lean on your best arms in October. That pace is nowhere near sustainable during the regular season, however.

My guess is Holmes will open 2023 as the closer simply because he was the primary closer most of last season. He led the Yankees with 20 saves after taking the job from Chapman and kept it even while struggling with his control late in the season. Holmes closed out ALDS Game 1 and was the last guy on the mound in ALCS Game 4. He’s their guy.

I’m here to make the case Loáisiga should be the closer going into 2023. Not because I believe it, necessarily, but because I think it’s a conversation worth having. I think Holmes will be the closer to begin the season but I don’t know that, and the Yankees have shown a willingness to be fluid with relief roles. Let’s talk this out, shall we? Here are some reasons Loáisiga should close.

He’s probably their best reliever

Probably, though not definitely. Loáisiga struggled quite a bit early last season (13 runs in his first 16.2 innings), then he missed close to two months with a shoulder issue, then he allowed four runs and got two outs in his first game back. Loáisiga was very much a question mark going into the All-Star break. The guy we saw in 2021 was nowhere to be found.

Coming out of the break though, Loáisiga was nails, allowing an earned run in only five of his 30 appearances after the All-Star break. He held opposing hitters to a .191/.252/.209 (.210 wOBA) line with an absurdly low average exit velocity (84.1 mph) and barrel rate (1.1%) allowed. Loáisiga was back to throwing that disgusting 100 mph two-seamer in on the hands …

… and he was dominant in the postseason. It’s not how to start, it’s how you finish, and Loáisiga finished last season very well. He’s been outstanding – truly one of the best relievers in baseball – in three of the last four half-seasons. Loáisiga has injury concerns, but as long as he’s healthy, I expect him to be excellent in 2024. The stuff is so, so good.

Holmes and Peralta (and Tommy Kahnle, Ron Marinaccio, Lou Trivino, etc.) are really good too, though I think it’s fair to say Loáisiga at his best is the best of the bunch. Ideally you would use your best reliever as a Moment of Truth guy and not marry him to the ninth inning, but a) there’s value in having a lockdown closer who turns it into a eight-inning game, and b) Aaron Boone isn’t exactly a bullpen management savant. A legit closer makes his life a bit easier.

There’s no right way to run a bullpen. The Astros have been the sport’s most successful team the last few years and have had a dedicated closer (Ryan Pressly). The Nationals, Phillies, and even the Dodgers had fluid closer situations during their recent World Series runs. As long as you have quality setup options, which the Yankees do, using your best reliever as a true closer can work.

Holmes has a big platoon split

As good as he’s been as a Yankee – and he’s been great – Holmes has had some difficulty with left-handed batters. We’re not talking about an extreme Adam Ottavino-esque platoon split here, but Holmes has a platoon split. His numbers since joining the Yankees:

• vs. RHB: .158/.230/.214 (.207 wOBA), 31.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 78.2 GB%
• vs. LHB: .262/.365/.357 (.319 wOBA), 19.6 K%, 11.5 BB%, 64.3 GB%

With Holmes as the dedicated closer, the Yankees could run into trouble when a bunch of lefties or pinch-hittable righties are due up in the ninth inning. If you’re going to commit to him as closer, you’re saying you’re comfortable ignoring platoon splits and letting the closer pitch his inning regardless of matchups. Ignoring the matchups with Holmes isn’t the best idea though.

As a setup man, the Yankees can be more flexible with Holmes and pick their lane. They could match him up with, say, George Springer-Bo Bichette-Vlad Guerrero Jr. in the eighth inning, or Jose Altuve-Alex Bregman-José Abreu in the seventh. Those are righty heavy Holmes lanes, not something like Cedric Mullins-Adley Rutschman-Gunnar Henderson with a one-run lead in the ninth. Two lefties and a switch-hitter could be problematic.

The Yankees and Holmes have yet to find a solution to his problems with lefties. He throws basically all sinkers to lefties …

… and while I wouldn’t put it past them to figure out a changeup or splitter to better neutralize lefties given all the good things the Yankees have done with pitchers the last few years (including turning Holmes into what he is now), it hasn’t happened yet. When it happens, the Yankees can adjust their bullpen usage. For now, they should try to steer Holmes away from lefties.

Loáisiga has a platoon split as well but it is small. Righties have a .242 wOBA against him the last two years. For lefties, it’s a .276 wOBA. The Yankees can better use Loáisiga against both righties and lefties in the late innings, so it would be easier to stick him in the ninth inning and just let him go regardless of matchups. Easier than it would be with Holmes, anyway.

Wandy’s the only lefty

Maybe the Yankees re-sign Zack Britton or sign Andrew Chafin before Opening Day, or maybe Matt Krook develops into a weapon, but right now, Peralta is the only established lefty reliever on the 40-man roster. He’s the only lefty reliever certain to be in the Opening Day bullpen. Magic Wandy has been great against lefties and merely very good against righties as a Yankee …

• vs. RHB: .244/.314/.342 (.290 wOBA), 15.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 53.4 GB%
• vs. LHB: .177/.246/.246 (.222 wOBA), 29.4 K%, 7.0 BB%, 62.1 GB%

… and they clearly trust him in the game’s biggest moments. He got the final three outs with the season on the line in ALDS Games 4 and 5 last year, when he became the first pitcher ever to appear in all five games of a Division Series. The Yankees trust Peralta and he’s earned that trust. If push came to shove in the ninth inning, they’d be comfortable with him on the mound.

That said, Peralta is the only lefty in the bullpen, and there will be times they need him to match up with someone like Rafael Devers* earlier in the game, and can’t afford to save him for the ninth. I know I’ve said Kahnle and Marinaccio are capable lefty matchup guys because of their changeups, but that left-on-left look absolutely matters at times, and Peralta’s the only one who provides it. The Yankees have to stay flexible with him, so closing is pretty much off the table.

* Fun fact: Devers is 0-for-9 with three strikeouts in his career against Wandy. Peralta’s gotten Devers in some pretty big spots too (video).

King is too valuable in a multi-inning role

This surprised me: Mike King recorded no more than three outs in 18 of his 34 appearances last season. I mean, that's a lot of multi-inning outings (47% of his appearances), but I would've guessed more. King got at least four outs 16 times, at least five outs 13 times, and at least six outs 11 times. He was a beast.

That multi-inning ability is incredibly value and not something teams utilize with a traditional closers. Closers tend to be one-inning guys who get four outs on occasion (typically in big games and/or before an off-day), but not often. Certainly not as often as King. King as a multi-inning dominator is way too great a weapon to marginalize him in the closer's role.

The x-factor here is King's injury. Will he still be able to go multiple innings following the elbow fracture? Will the Yankees build him up slowly with one-inning outs initially? Possibly, and if they do that, we can rethink the whole "King as a one-inning closer" thing. For now, I say keep him as a multi-inning setup man until we know he can't do it (or the Yankees won't do it).

It might keep Loáisiga healthy

I have no evidence to support this, it’s just a theory, but perhaps having a set routine can keep Loáisiga healthy? In his current role he might pitch the sixth inning one night, the ninth inning the next, the seventh two days after that, etc. Give him a set inning and let him settle into a routine (I have to begin stretching at this time, etc.) and maybe it keeps him on the field? I dunno.

Loáisiga has a very long injury history and it’s all arm injuries too. This is A LOT:

• 2014-15: Did not pitch due to shoulder trouble.
• 2016: Had Tommy John surgery in May.
• 2017: Returned from Tommy John surgery in June.
• 2018: Missed six weeks with shoulder issues.
• 2019: Missed more than three months with a shoulder issue.
• 2021: Missed three weeks with a shoulder issue.
• 2022: Missed nearly two months with a shoulder issue.

The 60-game pandemic season is the only year Loáisiga has not visited the injured list with an arm injury. Maybe that unfairly dings him for 2017 since he was rehabbing a 2016 injury, but still, it’s a lot of injuries, and anything the Yankees can do to keep Loáisiga on the field is worthwhile. Perhaps a set routine as the closer can help. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to find out.

There could be a long-term fit

The Yankees have let some really great relievers leave as free agents the last few years. Guys who wore pinstripes for a long time like Dellin Betances, Chad Green, and David Robertson (twice). There were injury considerations with Betances and Green, sure, but the Yankees are willing to let popular players who were good Yankees walk away.

It’s possible they do the same with Loáisiga, who will be a free agent after 2024. He’ll be 30 in Year 1 of his free agent contract and that injury history is really scary. Hard-throwers who get hurt tend to keep getting hurt. Enjoying what are likely to be Loáisiga’s most productive years and then letting some other team pay for his decline is in no way unreasonable.

I do think there’s a chance for a long-term fit here though. The Yankees love Loáisiga’s makeup – remember when they called him up straight from Double-A because they felt he was equipped to handle it mentally? – and of course they love his stuff. Whether you believe it or not, the Yankees buy into the “can he handle New York?” thing. Loáisiga clearly can.

That isn’t to say the Yankees will pay whatever it takes to keep him. If Loáisiga is looking for an Edwin Díaz contract when he hits the market, then forget it. I doubt the Yankees would go there. The Yankees are willing to pay high-end relievers well though, and if they give Loáisiga the closer’s job now and he excels the next two years, it will be difficult to let him walk.

I don’t think Holmes is here for the long run. He’s awesome, but my guess is the Yankees say thanks when he hits free agency in two years, and let him go. Same with Trivino. Peralta will be a free agent after 2023. Not sure what happens there, though Magic Wandy rules, and if they can agree to something like Matt Strahm’s contract (two years and $15M), I say go for it.

Point is, much of the current bullpen will be gone within two years, because that’s how it goes at this position. Bullpens have a high rate of turnover. If Loáisiga proves to be a capable closer, I can see the Yankees keeping him after he hits free agency. They have to give him that chance to close first. It’s would be nice to have him as the ninth inning guy the next 5-7 years rather than continually cycling through pitchers.

* * *

The way I see it, the Yankees have several pitchers capable of pitching the ninth inning. Loáisiga can do it, Holmes can do it, Wandy can do it, even Trivino can do it. Using your best reliever in the game’s most important situation is the way to go, but it is easier said than done, particularly when Boone is calling the shots. As the closer, you know Loáisiga’s getting high leverage outs. Maybe not the highest leverage outs, but high leverage outs.

Last year was a pretty good indication Holmes will open this season as the closer. Hopefully he’s lights out and goes to the All-Star Game again, and the ninth inning is a non-issue. I think there’s a strong case to be made Loáisiga should be the guy though. He’s great, it frees Holmes and Peralta up for lanes better suited for their skills, and perhaps it’s the start of a multi-year closer solution. Loáisiga has given off “closer in waiting” vibes for a while. Might be time to stop waiting.

2. Higashioka’s late season adjustments. Last September (and October) was arguably the most productive month of Kyle Higashioka’s career. His playing time increased as the Yankees backed off Jose Trevino’s workload in preparation for the postseason, and he responded with a .339/.356/.536 (153 wRC+) line in 59 plate appearances. It was the 13th time Higashioka had at least 25 plate appearances in a calendar month. The ranks among those 13 months:

• .339 AVG: Highest (July 2022 is second at .267)
• .356 OBP: Second highest (.378 in April 2021)
• .536 SLG: Third highest (.710 in April 2021 and .590 in Sept. 2020)
• 153 wRC+: Second highest (178 in April 2021)
• 16.9 K%: Second lowest (12.1% in Aug. 2018)

Higashioka was more productive in April 2021, though he had only 37 plate appearances that month. That’s about 40% fewer than his 59 plate appearances last September, which were a career high for a calendar month. I’m not here to argue which one is Higashioka’s most productive month though. He was great late last year. That’s the important thing.

Earlier this week Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) spoke to Higashioka about his offseason and all that, and Higashioka mentioned some stuff about his offense that caught my eye. Here are the important parts:

I made some adjustments to my swing to be a little more direct to the ball and hit some more line drives and not try to put the ball in the air 100 percent of the time. That combined with every single time, every game or week or month of experience you get in the big leagues, you get smarter and a better idea of how guys are going to pitch you. Being able to use that experience, plus a slightly different and more contact-oriented approach I think is going to help me … If you look at my stance, it’s pretty drastically different from the second half to what it was at the start of the season.

Look at your stance, you say? Let’s do that. Here are the before and after GIFs of Higashioka’s stance and swing last season:

Yep, there are differences, which first showed up in early September. Higashioka stood more upright late in the season and replaced his toe tap with a leg kick. The two-handed follow through vs. one-handed follow through is nothing. Higashioka uses both regularly. The key differences are his posture and leg kick. How much they contributed to his big September, I do not know, but changes were definitely made.

There isn’t much finesse to Higashioka’s offensive game. He’s a grip it and rip right-handed hitter who’s posted very high pull rates (career 46.3%) and very low ground ball rates (32.0%) over the years. He doesn’t walk (5.6%) and will strike out (25.6%) and swing and miss (13.2%) a bunch. Higashioka’s contact quality has always been strong though. Here’s 2022:

• Average exit velocity: 90.9 mph (MLB average: 88.6 mph)
• 90th percentile exit velocity: 105.3 mph (MLB average: 103.8 mph)
• Barrel rate: 9.8% (MLB average: 7.5%)
• Hard-hit rate: 48.1% (MLB average: 38.2%)

Higashioka hits the ball hard and he hits the ball in the air, which is generally good, though he’s been more of a fly ball hitter than a line drive hitter, and fly balls go for outs more often than line drives (the MLB averages were a .127 BABIP on fly balls and a .618 BABIP on liners in 2022). Higashioka ran a .226 BABIP in 459 plate appearances the last two years because he’s a fly ball over line drive hitter (and a slow-footed catcher).

The ideal launch angle range is 15-20 degrees. Those are line drives. Below that you’re hitting the ball into the ground and above that you’re hitting true fly balls. Launch angles in the 20-30 degree range are good too. Those become homers if you hit the ball hard enough. That 15-20 degree range is optimal though. That’s where the best results are found.

Here is Higashioka’s average launch angle over the years. He’s spent a good deal of time in that 15-20 degree range, though he’s often above that. Late last year he brought it down into the 10-15 degree range. That’s probably too low, so hopefully Higashioka can even it out. Point is, his launch angle really came down.

There are sample size issues here (Higashioka put only 47 balls in play last September) but the launch angle trend is pretty obvious. By the end of the year, he was running the lowest average launch angle of his career, and by a pretty good margin too. That it coincides with changes to his batting stance is noteworthy. It could be a total coincidence! It has my attention though.

In addition to a lower launch angle, Higashioka also made more contact. His career in-zone contact rate is 83.0%, a tick below the 84.8% league average. By the end of last season though, Higashioka’s in-zone contact rate was approaching 90%:

More contact and more batted balls in the ideal launch angle range are good no matter the hitter. Add in Higashioka’s hard-hit ability and yeah, he could be a dangerous hitter if he can do all three of those things. The changes to his batting stance could be a tangible explanation for the improved performance late last year.

Higashioka is not young, he turns 33 in April and is already older than Brian McCann was when the Yankees traded him to clear the way for Gary Sánchez, but he’s a career backup with less wear and tear on his body than the typical catcher this age. Plus swing changes aren’t limited to young players. Look at Matt Carpenter. A veteran 30-something can make adjustments and not just remain productive, but even reach new heights. Maybe Higashioka did that in September?

The Yankees got pretty good production from their catchers last year, though Trevino hit a wall at midseason, and his second half numbers (.244/.266/.360 and 77 wRC+) look a lot like his career numbers entering 2022 (.245/.270/.364 and 65 wRC+). That might just be who he is, and his first half is the outlier. Higashioka didn’t hit until September. Those two are really great defensively. Offensively? Eh, there’s room for improvement there.

I’ve written enough about adjustments and swing changes over the years to know most of them don’t lead to anything (remember Isiah Kiner-Falefa in Spring Training?), but sometimes they do, and they’re still worth tracking. Higashioka hits the ball hard, and if last year’s adjustments help him produce more line drives and more contact, then yeah, he absolutely could get to another level offensively. The Yankees could use it too, even in spurts as the backup catcher. This is a thing to monitor once the Grapefruit League season gets underway.

3. Yankees sign Fenter. The Yankees still have not announced their non-roster invitees (maybe Friday?), though they have signed another player to a minor league contract: RHP Gray Fenter, per Jon Heyman. He’s never pitched above Double-A and may not get an invite to big league camp, but I bet he does. We’ll find out soon either way

Fenter, who turned 27 last week, is a bit more interesting than the typical minor league contract fodder. The Orioles gave him a $1M bonus as their seventh round pick in 2015, he had Tommy John surgery in April 2016, then the Cubs gave him a look as a Rule 5 Draft pick in 2021. He didn’t make it through Spring Training and was returned to O’s before Opening Day.

Last season did not go well. Fenter walked 38 batters in 40.1 innings with the Giants’ Double-A affiliate, got released in July, then finished the year with the independent Lancaster Barnstormers. All told, Fenter had a 4.38 ERA with a lot of strikeouts (29.3%) and a lot of walks (15.7%) in 61.2 innings in 2022. Here’s video and here’s what Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote about Fenter in 2020:

Fenter attracted attention in high school for his 96-97 mph fastball, but two years back from surgery, he was sitting 90-94 mph with significant rising action up in the zone. His primary pitch was always a 77-80 mph curveball that had above-average traits, but he added a slider in 2019 that flashed plus. Fenter has a maxed-out frame that doesn't lend itself to much projection, but he repeated his delivery well during the season … (If) the Orioles take him off the back-end starter track, he could quickly work into a major league middle relief role.

A fastball with life up in the zone and a breaking ball with above-average traits? Yeah, sounds like a Yankees project pitcher to me. Fenter was still starting games as recently as last year. I figured it was opener work with San Francisco’s Double-A affiliate but no, they ran him out there for four-ish innings and 70-ish pitches at a time. A permanent move into short relief is in the cards.

The Yankees began their player development overhaul in 2019, when they hired Desi Druschel (now the MLB assistant pitching coach) and Sam Briend to oversee pitcher development. Since then Briend & Co. have turned several of these unheralded minor league signings into useful big league arms. They did it with Lucas Luetge and Luis García (the one who got away), and most notably with Nestor Cortes. That’s a lot of nothings into somethings.

It’s not just minor league signings either. The Yankees have done well identifying mid-round arms with interesting pitch characteristics, gotten them into the system, and coached them up. Ken Waldichuk, Will Warren, and Hayden Wesneski – the W dudes – are the greatest success stories. Once upon a time Fenter was deemed worthy of a $1M bonus and a Rule 5 Draft pick. There’s ability there. It’s just a matter of unlocking it.

Minor league contracts are no risk and at this point why wouldn’t the Yankees keep handing talented pitchers over to the player development staff? They won’t all work out, but they’ve had enough success to keep trying. Fenter’s interesting and I’m looking forward to seeing whether the Yankees can optimize his skills and turn him into a potential big league option.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

I answered a mailbag question about the Yankees possibly re-signing Chad Green, then a few hours later he signed with the Blue Jays. That’s what I get for starting the mailbag Tuesday morning instead of procrastinating. Anyway, that’s in the Content Graveyard now. I’m happy Greenie was able to get a nice contract after that brutally timed Tommy John surgery. Now let’s get to the rest of the mailbag.

Alessandro asks: Purely hypothetical: would you do an Anthony Volpe for Corbin Carroll trade?

Boy, it works. It really works. The Yankees have multiple quality right-handed hitting shortstop prospects and need a young lefty hitting outfielder. The Diamondbacks have multiple quality left-handed hitting outfield prospects and need a young righty hitting shortstop. Carroll is no worse than the second best prospect in baseball. Volpe’s a top 10 prospect. Bit of a gap there. Otherwise these teams and these players match up very well for a hypothetical trade. Here’s what MLB.com says about Carroll, just for background:

Carroll is already in the conversation for the fastest player in the Majors … He puts that speed to good use on the grass, where he can cover acres in any direction, and after making arm strength a focus, he’s above-average in that area and can keep runners honest. The wheels and glove would be enough to make Carroll a special prospect, but what places him among the best in the game is his work in the box. Starting from an upright stance, the left-handed hitter then drops down to look almost springloaded, which helps generate the bat speed necessary to spray the ball all over the park. His slugging performance has improved as he’s added strength in pro ball, and he could be capable of multiple 20-homer seasons if this progress continues.

I say yes, I’d do Volpe for Carroll. That leaves the Yankees with Oswald Peraza at shortstop, and Carroll could play left field in 2022 before sliding over to center to replace Harrison Bader in 2023. The D’Backs could put Alek Thomas in center and Volpe at short. The Daulton Varsho trade throws a wrench into things because it would be easier to trade Carroll with Varsho still around, but that’s why this is a hypothetical..

Also, this is why I pounded the table for the Yankees to sign a top shortstop. In addition to adding a great player to the roster, it opens the door for something like Volpe for Carroll. The Yankees could still make the trade, sure, but Carlos Correa or Corey Seager or Trea Turner would be a way better solution at short than Peraza. As much as we all love Peraza, he’s unproven, and if he doesn’t work out, you have no safety net after trading Volpe. Signing a top shortstop would’ve put the Yankees in a better position and opened a few more doors. Alas.

My guess is both teams would say no to Volpe for Carroll. Prospects are like children, everyone loves their own more than everyone else’s, and the D’Backs love Carroll like the Yankees love Volpe. On the field, Volpe for Carroll makes sense for both clubs given their needs and positions of depth. I’d do it. What a fun challenge trade it would be.

Elizabeth asks: Hi, hoping you'll consider a post on defense for the likely Starting Day lineup. (Peraza or Volpe @ SS please, not K-F). You mentioned Torres could have a break-out season this year. I'm curious if you think that's a possibility for his fielding. Cano.2?? And Hicks's wrist should finally be healed, but does he still have an A+ arm? Would Cabrera be a better choice (apart from being more fun)?

The Yankees have very good to great defenders at catcher (Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino), first base (Anthony Rizzo), third base (Josh Donaldson), center field (Harrison Bader), and right field (Aaron Judge). DJ LeMahieu is quite good at first, second, and third bases too. Donaldson, LeMahieu, and Rizzo all come with age-related risk, but they were still above-average defenders the last time we saw them. I expect that will be true again in 2023.

That leaves three positions: second base, shortstop, and left field. Historically, Gleyber Torres has rated as an average to slightly below average second baseman. He has been consistently dinged for his range, moreso toward first base than up the middle, and that could be a problem with the new limitations on extreme shifts. Given what we’ve seen to date, I think Torres is likely to be on the below average side defensively without the shift, though probably not awful.

I think the Yankees will go with Oswald Peraza at shortstop but I do not know that for certain. All indications are he’s an MLB-ready defender (he certainly looked good at short late last year) and would be an upgrade over Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who has range but is prone to mistakes on routine plays. He’ll boot grounders or short hop throws on plays a Major League shortstop is expected to make with zero stress. Rizzo saved Kiner-Falefa more than a few errors in 2022.

What are the Yankees doing in left field? Beats me. I’m not sure even they know right now. Aaron Hicks made a few high-profile mistakes last year, most notably dropping a ball along the line and not realizing it was fair, but the numbers generally rated him favorably (+8 DRS and +1 OAA in left). The Yankees told us they consider Judge the superior center fielder when they played him there over Hicks, but Hicks is almost certainly their best defensive left fielder.

As for his arm, I wrote about the post-Tommy John surgery decline last June, then it seemed to bounce back almost immediately. Hicks finished the year with a 92.3 mph average competitive throw (i.e. top 10% of throws), well above the league average at all three outfield positions (87.4 mph in left, 90.0 mph in center, 90.5 mph in right). Hicks made a 98.2 mph throw, a number only 24 outfielders topped. Go figure.

Oswald Cabrera looked more comfortable in right field than left to me, probably because there’s less ground to cover in right at Yankee Stadium. He looked quite good wherever the Yankees stuck him, though I think it’s fair to say the jury is still out on his left field defense given the lack of experience (79 innings at all levels).

If the Yankees put Hicks in left and Peraza at short, then they will have no worse than an average defender at every position except second base, and they’ll be well above average at most positions too. Torres is their worst defender among everyday players and he’s not terrible, just a bit below average, plus the Yankees could always stick LeMahieu there if they want to prioritize defense. If Gleyber’s their weakest defender, the Yankees will be in great shape.

I wish they were able to do it without taking on Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa, or largely punting offense behind the plate, but the Yankees improved significantly in the field last year. I don’t buy them being the best defensive team in the game like DRS, but they were very good defensively, and I expect the defense to be a strength again in 2023. If not, it will likely be because the older guys show their age in the field, Bader gets hurt, and/or the kids have growing pains.

JDK asks: Wouldn't it be a good idea to give Cabrera some Grapefruit League catching experience to enhance his super-utility status and provide an emergency catcher in case IKF leaves?

There was an emergency third catcher situation last season. The Pirates had to put utility man Josh VanMeter behind the plate because backup Andrew Knapp got ejected for arguing balls and strikes from the dugout, then starter Roberto Perez got hurt. “Pure panic,” is how VanMeter described the experience. The last true emergency catcher situation prior to that was Pedro Feliz in 2007. It’s not a thing that happens very often.

The Yankees never did work Isiah Kiner-Falefa out behind the plate. Never caught a bullpen session or anything. He has 1,257 career innings behind the plate at all levels, which is just about a full season’s worth, and his MLB numbers are dreadful (-16 DRS in under 600 innings). As an emergency third catcher though, Kiner-Falefa works. He has experience there even if the Yankees never bothered to reacquaint him with the position.

As for Oswaldo Cabrera, boy, I think that’s putting a lot on his plate. He’s probably going to spend Spring Training getting more familiar with left field (only 79 career innings there), plus he’ll have to prepare for his usual work all around the infield. Catching a few bullpen sessions is no big deal, but guys typically work out at catcher for weeks before going back there in actual games. If the Yankees were going to put Cabrera behind the plate in a Grapefruit League game, the transition would likely have to be underway already. There’s no indication it has or will happen.

Cabrera is entering his first full MLB season and he has a lot on his plate already. He’s trying to win a left field job and just stick on the roster in general. The emergency catcher thing might be worth pursuing in the future, once he’s more established and comfortable in his role. Cabrera looks so natural at every position that I’m sure he could catch for a few innings. I think it’s a little too much to ask this year though. Catching is not like learning first base on the fly.

Jason asks: In hindsight, how bad does the decision not to non-tender IKF look? If the NYY are only $4 mil below the $293 million tax threshold they don’t want to exceed, wouldn’t his salary be better off used elsewhere? If reports about DJLM’s health are true, and Peraza wins the SS job, it’s hard to see what IKF’s role will be.

I’m not an Isiah Kiner-Falefa fan but I don’t think it was a bad decision. For starters, I don’t buy $293M being a firm payroll limit. The Yankees have already incurred all the non-monetary luxury tax penalties. At this point it’s just a higher tax rate on everything over $293M. If the Yankees refuse to exceed that, they have bigger problems than Kiner-Falefa. The $6M they would have saved by non-tendering wouldn’t move the needle much. Maybe it’s a new reliever? That’s about it. $6M is Tommy Kahnle money.

Also, the Yankees have infield inventory, not necessarily infield depth. DJ LeMahieu is trying to avoid major foot surgery – why should we believe reports about his health this offseason given the team’s tendency to downplay injuries? – and Josh Donaldson looked cooked last year. Who knows with the kids too? The Yankees have one infielder you can comfortably project to be a solid Major Leaguer in 2023: Gleyber Torres. Everyone else comes with a fairly significant question (age, injury, no track record, etc.).

I know there’s been trade interest in Kiner-Falefa this offseason and the Yankees could move him tomorrow if they wanted, but the offers aren’t anything great, and I don’t think it’s wrong to see how everyone looks in camp before moving an infielder. Again, I’m not a Kiner-Falefa fan. I just think it’s a relatively small amount of money and a position where the Yankees lack sure things. Cutting him loose for no return seems a bit shortsighted. (I say this fully aware Aaron Boone will play Kiner-Falefa entirely too much if they don’t trade him.)

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)