January 10th, 2023: King, Bullpen, Arbitration, Hot Stove, Brown

We have our first YES Network news of the year: Cameron Maybin is out, according to Andrew Marchand. That's a bummer. As a young and recently retired player, I felt Maybin was a breath of fresh air in the booth. He was funny, and he got better and more comfortable as the season went on. No word on the rest of the YES crew yet, but Killa Cam won't be back. Too bad. Now let’s get to today’s post as Gleyber Torres visits a hot dog cart for the first time.

1. King’s status and the state of the bullpen. If there's one thing the Yankees have been reliably good at the last decade or so, it’s building a bullpen. Long gone are the days of throwing big bucks at the free agent flavor of the winter to serve as Mariano Rivera’s setup man. The names change, but the Yankees always seem to have a really good bullpen.

Here are the bullpen numbers since 2017, the first year of the Aaron Judge era:

• ERA: 3.56 (2nd in MLB)
• ERA+: 117 (3rd)
• FIP: 3.68 (1st)
• FIP+: 116 (1st)
• K%: 27.0% (2nd)
• K-BB%: 17.5% (3rd)
• wOBA allowed: .291 (2nd)
• WPA: 28.2 (4th)
• WAR: +39.0 (1st by six wins!)

The Yankees seem to churn out a new high-end reliever every season and last year’s bullpen revelation was Mike King, though his bullpen breakout really happened late in 2021. A fractured elbow ended King’s season on July 22nd last year. It was an unusual injury. You don’t see many pitchers fracture their elbow on a pitch like that. Fortunately King’s ligament was not damaged.

"No Tommy John. They said the ligament is intact. No partial tearing. It looks great. I was very relieved to hear that. Everything checked out,” King told Gary Phillips following a checkup in September. "... Obviously, starting a throwing program in October, November, means that I'll be totally fine by next year, which is great. That's really like my ultimate goal, is to not miss any time next year."

Spring Training is now five weeks away, and although King is making progress with his throwing program, his availability for Opening Day is in question. Last week Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) said he was “told by a team source that King may not be fully ready to go by the start of the regular season.” Joel Sherman (subs. req’d) backed that up and said “King’s health is a question mark, especially to begin the schedule.”

King and the Yankees indicated they were hopeful he would be ready for Spring Training following the surgery to repair the fracture. It was a hope more than a firm timetable, and honestly, it’s fine. Not having King to begin 2023 would stink, but he is throwing, and the big picture takes priority here. The Yankees need King to be healthy and at his best down the stretch and into October. If he must miss April (and May?) to properly rehab, so be it. Rushing him back is too risky.

(The Yankees may have to protect King from himself. He admitted to pitching through discomfort before the fracture and I’m sure he’s champing at the bit to return. You don’t want him pushing too hard to make it back for Opening Day only to have him suffer a setback or a new injury.)

Even after the Lucas Luetge trade, the Yankees have good bullpen depth, at least on paper. They should be able to absorb not having King for a few weeks. The bullpen depth chart currently looks like this:

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• Setup: RHP Jonathan Loáisiga, LHP Wandy Peralta
• Middle: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Ron Marinaccio, RHP Lou Trivino
• Long man: RHP Domingo Germán
• 40-man depth: RHP Jimmy Cordero, RHP Clarke Schmidt, RHP Greg Weissert
• Non-40-man depth: RHP Tyler Danish, RHP James Norwood, RHP Ryan Weber
• Injured: RHP Scott Effross, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Mike King

Good, solid bullpen even though FanGraphs projections have it as only the 14th best bullpen in baseball (really?). You know what would make that bullpen really pop though? An elite closer. A dominant ninth inning guy to push Holmes, Loáisiga, et al down the depth chart a peg. Don’t get me wrong, those guys are great, but the more help the Yankees can give them, the better.

Edwin Díaz was the offseason’s only truly elite free agent closer and he never actually became a free agent because the Mets re-signed him during the exclusive negotiating period (plus there’s no chance the Yankees were giving $100M to a reliever). Kenley Jansen is good more than great at this point in his career. Craig Kimbrel is two notches below that as a reclamation project.

Liam Hendriks has popped up in trade rumors the last few weeks, moreso because teams want him than because the White Sox want to move him. He would have been the ideal bullpen addition, but over the weekend Hendriks announced he has been diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma and will soon begin treatment, so baseball is on hold. Go kick cancer’s ass, Liam.

A possible bullpen trade target: Scott Barlow. The breaking ball specialist (45% sliders and 25% curveballs the last two years) has been the Royals’ closer the last two seasons and shown the bat missin’, ground ballin’ ability the Yankees (and every other team) want in the late innings.

I know closing games in Kansas City is not the same as closing games in New York, but Barlow is really good and he has two years of control. The thing is, the Yankees usually don’t trade for guys like Barlow. They typically trade for pre-breakout relievers (like Holmes) and are more likely to try to dig up the next Barlow. Anteing up for the actual Barlow when his trade value is at its peak feels Angels-y more than Yankees-y.

Anyway, I’m just making the observation the bullpen would be more imposing with a capital-C Closer (duh) more than I am pounding the table for a Barlow trade. The bullpen can always be improved and if something comes across the table that makes sense, go for it. I don’t think the bullpen is a top priority like left field, but if the Yankees can make it better, then they should do it.

Two other bullpen thoughts. First, among the eight MLB relievers I listed in my makeshift depth chart …

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• Setup: RHP Jonathan Loáisiga, LHP Wandy Peralta
• Middle: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP Ron Marinaccio, RHP Lou Trivino
• Long man: RHP Domingo Germán

… only Marinaccio is optionable. Well, Loáisiga can be optioned, but he’s not going to Triple-A (and if the Yankees need to send him down, something bad has happened). Trivino will reach five years of service time nine days into the season, at which point he’ll be able to refuse a demotion. For all intents and purposes, Trivino is not optionable despite having two options.

(King is in the same boat as Loáisiga. He has options remaining but isn’t the kinda reliever who gets shuttled out for a fresh arm.)

The lack of optionable relievers limits roster flexibility. Marinaccio might get hosed at times and be sent down despite not deserving to be sent down just because he can be optioned and the Yankees need a long reliever for a few days or something like that. It happened to him a few times last year. It sucks and is unfair. It’s also part of modern bullpen usage.

I wouldn’t sweat the lack of optionable relievers. Abreu is not exactly locked into a roster spot and might not even be in the organization come Spring Training. That bullpen spot could instead go to someone with options (Schmidt?). Also, someone will get hurt. That’s baseball, and hopefully it’s someone rather than someones. Once a reliever gets hurt, odds are someone with options will take his place and create more flexibility. This will sort itself out. It always does.

And second, I still can’t shake the feeling a Zack Britton re-signing is coming. There was some speculation a few weeks ago he could sign with the Mets given the Buck Showalter connection, but that was just speculation. There have been zero updates to Britton’s MLB archive this offseason. Now consider:

• The Yankees have just the one lefty in their bullpen right now (Wandy).
• Britton has said many times he loves being a Yankee and wants to stay.
• Brian Cashman constantly praised Britton’s leadership and clubhouse skills.
• Britton is undoubtedly looking at a cheap one-year contract at this point.
• Spring Training is five weeks away and the Yankees have 60-day injured list candidates.

That last bullet point is important. The closer we get to camp, the easier it will be to convince Britton/the more willing Britton may be to wait until Spring Training to sign, at which point the Yankees can put Effross or Gil on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot. No other roster move would be required. It would be a neat and tidy signing.

(Here is my periodic reminder there should be a 60-day injured list in the offseason. Make it work the same way as the injured list in Spring Training. If you put a player on the 60-day injured list before Opening Day, he has to miss the first 60 days of the regular season. See? Easy. Everyone benefits. Players, front offices, etc.)

It’s certainly fair to wonder whether Britton can be effective after the last two years, though I will note his pitch data was good in his limited action last year. His velocity was down, but the spin and sink and all that were there. He just didn’t throw strikes. Britton didn’t come back and look greatly diminished. He looked like a guy who rushed through Tommy John surgery rehab, and now he’s had an offseason to get it together (Britton started a throwing program weeks ago following the season-ending shoulder injury).

We’ll see whether my crazy Britton idea comes together. Otherwise we’re starting to get hints King may not be ready for Opening Day, which would stink, but isn’t the end of the world as long as there’s been no setback and he’s progressing with his throwing program, which he is. The Yankees can stand to improve the bullpen. I would bet against a big move at this point. I would also bet against those eight names I listed being the Opening Day bullpen. Someone either not in the organization or not on the radar will sneak onto the roster. You watch.

(While on the lefty reliever subject, there was a rumor over the weekend about a Gleyber Torres for Garrett Crochet trade, though that came from a Chicago reporter speculating during a radio interview. There’s no real buzz to that one. Crochet is ridiculous though. He’s very much a Yankees-esque target, though being out with Tommy John surgery complicates things.)

2. Arbitration filing deadline coming. There is actual baseball news coming later this week. Friday is the deadline for teams and their arbitration-eligible players to file salary figures for the 2023 season. I’m gonna quote the Offseason Calendar to explain this deadline:

The player files what he believes he should be paid and the team files what they believe he should be paid. This is just the filing deadline and the two sides can still work out a contract of any size after this date. The vast majority of arb-eligible players sign before this date. Judge last offseason is the only Yankee to file salary figures in the last three offseasons. The Yankees got everyone else signed before the filing deadline.

The Yankees entered the offseason with 14 arb-eligible players and they’re now down to 10. Tim Locastro got released, Lucas Luetge was traded, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($6M) and Lou Trivino ($4.1M) signed one-year contracts a few weeks ago. Here are the remaining 10 arb-eligible Yankees and MLBTR's 2023 salary projections:

• Gleyber Torres: $9.8M (third time eligible as Super Two, made $6.25M in 2022)
• Frankie Montas: $7.7M (third time, made $5.025M in 2022)
• Nestor Cortes: $3.5M (first time, made $727,500 in 2022)
• Wandy Peralta: $3.1M (fourth time as Super Two, made $2.15M in 2022)
• Clay Holmes: $2.9M (second time, made $1.1M in 2022)
• Domingo Germán: $2.6M (second time, made $1.75M in 2022)
• Jonathan Loáisiga: $2.1M (second time, made $1.65M in 2022)
• Jose Trevino: $2M (first time, made $720,000 in 2022)
• Kyle Higashioka: $1.7M (second time, made $935,000 in 2022)
• Mike King: $1.2M (first time, made $722,500 in 2022)

Harrison Bader is entering the second year of a two-year, $10.4M extension that will pay him $5.2M in 2023. That contract gave the Cardinals cost certainty over his final two arb years without buying out any free agent years. Bader would’ve been arb-eligible this winter otherwise, so St. Louis saved the Yankees some paperwork.

Like I said, the vast majority of arb-eligible players sign before the filing deadline, and there’s no reason to think this year will be different. None of those 10 players should be a difficult sign. All the signings typically happen the day of the filing deadline, so we probably won’t get word on anyone until after Friday’s post goes live. We’ll have to cover them next week.

The filing deadline is the unofficial start of extension season, and it’s really already underway thanks the Rafael Devers deal. November, December, and the first half of January are for improving the roster. The second half of January, February, and March are for signing your own players. The Yankees have been extension-averse, mostly because they can afford to wait, so I don’t think they’ll lock anyone up this year. I wish they were more open to extensions, but what I say doesn't matter.

"The good and bad about being a player in a big market is they can kind of just let you go through the arbitration process," Clayton Kershaw told Andy McCullough in 2019 about the Dodgers not extending their players. "They don't need a discount. That's a situation that all of us are in with a big market team. They're not coming to you with a really discounted offer. They're going to let you play through it, and you've got to play well for a really long time."

Bader is the Yankees’ most obvious extension candidate. He plays a premium position and next year’s free agent class stinks. My pal R.J. Anderson previewed it recently and had Bader as one of the 10 best available players. Bader will hit a perfectly cromulent .250/.315/.410 with top of the line defense in 2023, then get the Brandon Nimmo contract in a very thin free agent class.

Approaching Bader about an extension would be smart, it doesn’t hurt to talk, though he and his agent know what’s up. They know how few legit center fielders are available and they saw what Nimmo received this offseason. Bader’s a New York guy and proud of it, but playing the year out is likely in his best interests financially. Still, the Yankees should see what’s up. Maybe he’ll take a hometown discount from his actual hometown team.

Extending Gleyber might be impossible unless the Yankees blow him away with an offer. As a Super Two, his career earnings are already over $13M, and he’s got another $19M or so coming to him through arbitration the next two years. Torres is slated to hit free agency at age 27 after proving he can succeed in the game’s most demanding market. He's made enough money that he can afford to wait, and he’s gonna get paid. With the infield prospects the Yankees have coming up, it’s hard to see Gleyber as a career Yankee. Hopefully he helps them win a World Series or two before free agency.

Cortes rules and if the Yankees extend him, I would be happy for him, but I can understand why they would go year-to-year. The track record is short and, given his unusual career path, Nestor is going to have to continue proving himself. That’s just the way it is with guys like this. None of the relievers nor Montas are getting extended. Bader’s the only real extension candidate and again, the Yankees don’t do extensions that often.

So, actual news is coming Friday when the Yankees sign their arb-eligible players. Nothing exciting, I know, but it’s important offseason business. FanGraphs estimates the luxury tax payroll at $291.8M, just under the $293M fourth penalty tier. If rumors the Yankees want to stay under $293M are true, then these 10 players and their arb salaries become awfully important. Every dollar counts.

3. Latest roster moves and hot stove news. We’re in the dog days of the offseason. All the top free agents have signed and there’s not much else going on otherwise. It’s boring, but Spring Training isn’t too far away, so enjoy the baseball-less days before the grind starts back up. Here are the latest hot stove nuggets and news and what have you.

Dodgers designate Bauer

As expected, the Dodgers designated Trevor Bauer for assignment last week. They will release him later this week, though the chances of a trade before then are not 0%, just really close to it. No one will give up anything of value for him, but the reason a team would trade for Bauer would be to make sure they get him. Once he’s a free agent, Bauer can pick his destination. A trade guarantees you get him.

I have no inside info, but I am comfortable saying the Yankees have no interest in Bauer, even at the league minimum once he’s released. They’ve never had interest in Bauer. When he was available at the 2019 deadline and the Yankees needed a starter, they were completely out for makeup reasons. Even before his domestic violence suspension, Bauer was a known shithead who wore out his welcome everywhere he played. He is toxic, and although the Yankees aren’t above rostering players suspended under the domestic violence policy, they won’t pursue him.

(Also, Gerrit Cole hates Bauer, his former UCLA teammate. Cole and Josh Donaldson had a spat and the Yankees brought Donaldson in anyway, but the Cole/Bauer feud is a bit more personal, and it goes back a long time.)

It’s easy to think Bauer will be blacklisted and no team will sign him, but this is a league in which multiple teams considered drafting Luke Heimlich, a convicted child molester. Teams will overlook a lot – A LOT – if they think you can help them win, and it only takes one team to sign Bauer. My money is on the Rays, though the Giants and Red Sox are sleepers. Either way, the Yankees are out, and that would be true even if the rotation weren’t as stacked as it is.

The latest on Reynolds

As has been the case since the 2021 trade deadline, the Yankees remain interested in Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds, reports Jon Heyman. They’re not alone – the Dodgers, Marlins, and Rangers are also in the mix, per Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) – though Pittsburgh continues to have “unrealistic asks,” according to Heyman, so everyone is waiting for reality to set in.

The Pirates reportedly offered Reynolds a six-year extension worth $75M. He’s seeking a deal more in line with Matt Olson’s (eight years and $168M), though Olson signed his extension when he was a year closer to free agency. Very few position players have signed long-term extensions at Reynolds’ service time level (three years away from free agency as a Super Two). Here are the last five (I’m defining long-term extension as 5+ years):

• J.P. Crawford, Mariners: 5 years, $51M (April 2022)
• Dee Gordon, Marlins: 5 years, $50M plus one club option (Jan. 2016)
• Ryan Braun, Brewers: 5 years, $105M plus one club option (April 2011)
• Alex Rios, Blue Jays: 7 years, $69.8M plus one club option (April 2008)
• Justin Morneau, Twins: 6 years, $80 million (Jan. 2008)

Sean Murphy got six years and $73M a few weeks ago and he is three years away from free agency like Reynolds, though he’s not a Super Two, so he started negotiations from a lower salary baseline. Reynolds and his agent would almost be breaking new ground at this service time level. There are no recent extensions for comparable players.

It might be hard to square Pittsburgh’s extension offer with their reported trade demands (you want a Juan Soto trade package but are offering him Aaron Hicks money?), but extension value and trade value are not the same thing. You may value a player at X dollars, but that doesn’t mean you accept X dollars in value in return in a trade. Supply and demand drives the market and Reynolds is far and away the best available outfield trade candidate. You take as much as you can get in a trade, not what’s fair.

Enough about the extension talk though. It’s irrelevant to the Yankees (unless of course Reynolds signs one and takes himself off the trade market). Given what else is available in trades and free agency (i.e. not much), my hunch is the Yankees are waiting out the Pirates, and seeing whether they really will bring an unhappy player who requested a trade to camp. It’ll make for an awkward situation that will cloud over them every single day until Reynolds is traded (or extended). If they do, then so be it. It’s not like the Yankees are missing out on some great alternative by waiting.

(At the same time, trading Reynolds would signal to other Pirates players they can force their way out by requesting a trade. The Pirates don’t want to set that precedent. This is messy.)

Another thing to keep in mind is the Pirates are beginning to take Ls on the trades they’ve made the last few years. Diego Castillo and Hoy Jun Park (Clay Holmes trade) were both designated for assignment earlier this offseason. Zach Thompson (Jacob Stallings trade), Bryse Wilson (Richard Rodríguez trade), and Miguel Yajure (Jameson Taillon trade*) were recently DFA’d as well. Connor Scott, a former first rounder and another player in the Stallings trade, was left exposed in the Rule 5 Draft and not picked, ditto Malcom Nunez (José Quintana trade). Brennan Malone (Starling Marte trade) has thrown 19 innings in three years with the Pirates.

* Unless Canaan Smith-Njigba stops being a 60% ground ball rate hitter, Roansy Contreras is all the Pirates will get out of the Taillon trade, and hey, Contreras is pretty good. But that’s it?

Now look at the Pirates’ drafts. Henry Davis, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, is No. 77 on Baseball America’s top 100 list (subs. req’d) with 10 – 10! – 2021 draftees ahead of him. Nick Gonzales, the No. 7 pick in the 2020 draft, is not a top 100 prospect. I know prospect rankings aren’t the be-all, end-all, but how can you rebuild this long and your top prospect is only No. 43 on a top 100 list, and it’s the player you took with the No. 4 overall pick a few months ago? I don’t get it.

Maybe GM Ben Cherington is just bad at this? I have a hard time believing that, he was GM of the 2013 Red Sox and I don’t think you can luck into a World Series championship, but Pittsburgh’s rebuild has been less than inspired. I can understand why Cherington would dig in and demand a massive return for Reynolds. There’s no rush to trade him and the Pirates can’t afford to botch another big move. The guy did request a trade though. Pretty awkward!

I also want to take a moment to reset the perception of Reynolds, which seems to be out of line reality. I like him, he’s a damn good player and he’s easily the best available outfielder (that we know of), but he’s not a franchise cornerstone. He’s a notch below star-caliber and is more of a Nick Swisher type who is going to rattle off 125 wRC+ and 3-4 WAR seasons year after year during his prime (which he is currently in). That’s a really, really good player who would help every team. It’s also more like the third best player on a contender than the centerpiece.

Hopefully this waiting game pays off and the Yankees can nab Reynolds for a trade package that a) doesn’t hurt too much, and b) we won’t sweat at all in a few years. The Yankees need a bat – a good bat – and a left fielder, and Reynolds would address both needs in 2023 and for another two years beyond that. I don’t get the sense this is wrapping up anytime soon, so we wait.

Yankees sign Peréz

I should just set aside a section for minor league signings in each post at this point. They’re coming in steadily. The latest is infielder Delvin Peréz. It happened some time ago (Dec. 26th per MiLB.com) but just now came across my radar. Peréz, 24, is a former first round pick. The Cardinals took him with the No. 23 selection in 2016, a few picks after the Yankees selected Blake Rutherford, and since a strong pro debut in rookie ball that year, he hasn’t hit: .245/.318/.314 (81 wRC+) in over 1,600 plate appearances while reaching Triple-A.

The one thing Peréz can do is play shortstop and play it well. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him the No. 25 prospect in St. Louis’ system going into 2022 and said he’s “an above-average defender, a plus-plus runner who has above-average range and a plus arm, and he’s learned to play more under control.” The organizational shortstop depth chart figures to look like this come Opening Day:

• MLB: Oswald Peraza (or Isiah Kiner-Falefa, we can't close that door yet)
• Triple-A: Anthony Volpe
• Double-A: Trey Sweeney
• High-A: Alex Vargas?
• Low-A: Brenny Escanio (the guy the Yankees got in the JP Feyereisen trade)
• Rookie: Roderick Arias

Peréz has only 45 career games in Triple-A and is not a lock to begin the season with Scranton. He could wind up in Double-A Somerset. He has played second and third bases, and even a little outfield in his career. It is common to expose shortstop prospects to the other infield positions, so Peréz is a good candidate to be the Triple-A utility infielder who fills in at short when Volpe plays second or third.

(The Yankees are up to 18 non-roster signings this offseason. That’s more than last offseason (12) but fewer than the offseason before (20), when things were weird coming out of the pandemic season and minor league contraction.)

Brantly signs with Blue Jays

Rob Brantly, the Yankees’ No. 3 catcher the last 2.5 seasons, signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays last week, the team announced. Brantly appeared in seven games with the Yankees the last two years, including one start at first base (!). He went 4-for-23 (.174) in those seven games and hit .280/.359/.410 (109 wRC+) in 127 games with Triple-A Scranton the last two years. Brantly was on the taxi squad in the postseason bubble in 2020.

Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino are again set to be the Yankees’ big league catchers in 2023, and Ben Rortvedt is No. 3 on the depth chart. Can’t blame Brantly for seeking a clearer path to MLB playing time. Toronto has Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk, but Brantly’s competition for the No. 3 job are two 27-year-old non-prospects (Chris Bec and Karl Ellison) who went a combined 6-for-45 (.133) in Triple-A last year. He’s first in line for a call up should Jansen or Kirk get injured.

Rortvedt and Josh Breaux will be Scranton’s two catchers to begin the season and eventually Austin Wells will arrive. Unless the Yankees trust Rodolfo Durán to be the No. 3 guy in Scranton after a poor Double-A season last year (.222/.266/.414 and 81 wRC+), I would think they’ll bring in another depth catcher. Someone to step in as the Triple-A backup when someone gets hurt/Rortvedt gets called up. Brantly leaving creates a tiny little hole in the catcher depth chart.

Tanaka re-signs in Japan

Masahiro Tanaka has officially re-signed with the Rakuten Golden Eagles. He said he would a few weeks ago and now he has. Tanaka accepted a big pay cut after calling his performance the last two years a “betrayal of the fans' hopes.” The Japan Times says he’ll earn $3.6M in 2023, down from $6.8M the last two years, when he was the highest paid player in Japan.

“Four wins and then nine are far behind the big expectations the club had for me and are a betrayal of the fans’ hopes too. It’s been a really undignified two years,” Tanaka told the Japan Times. His two “really undignified years” with the Golden Eagles included a 3.17 ERA and +5.0 WAR in 318.1 innings. I dunno, seems pretty good to me.

Now 34, Tanaka will enter 2023 with 190 wins (78 with the Yankees and 112 with Rakuten) and 2,497 strikeouts (991 with the Yankees and 1,490 with Rakuten). If he hangs around another few years and gets to 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, we can begin the combined MLB + NPB Hall of Fame talk. Tanaka didn’t play the requisite 10 years in MLB to appear on the BBWAA’s Hall of Fame ballot, but we can debate his case anyway. Either way, I can’t wait to see him at Old Timers’ Day.

Miscellany

Commissioner Rob Manfred recently reinstated former Braves GM John Coppolella from the permanently ineligible list, reports Jayson Stark (subs. req’d). The permanently ineligible list isn’t exactly permanent, as George Steinbrenner showed in 1993. You can apply for reinstatement every few years. Coppolella was given the lifetime ban in Nov. 2017 for circumventing the draft and international bonus pools (the Braves fudged bonus filings, offered under-the-table payments, etc.). During his time as GM, Coppolella traded for Max Fried and Dansby Swanson, and signed Freddie Freeman to a long-term extension, among other things. His fingerprints were all over the 2021 World Series team. Coppolella broke into baseball as an intern with the Yankees in the late 1990s, and he worked in their baseball operations department from 2000-06 before leaving for Atlanta. Despite that, and despite the Yankees bringing in Brian Sabean and Omar Minaya to beef up the front office, I don’t see a Coppolella reunion happening. Seems like too much of a potential distraction. Not sure he’ll work in baseball again despite being reinstated … According to Joel Sherman (subs. req’d), the Yankees were “very involved” in trade talks for Daulton Varsho before he was traded to the Blue Jays. The Yankees’ equivalent to the Gabriel Moreno/Lourdes Gurriel Jr. package is Anthony Volpe and Harrison Bader, and yeah, I’m cool not doing something like that, though I do love Varsho. The Yankees did at least try to make it happen before he went to Toronto … And finally, Carlos Correa’s deal with the Mets still isn’t done, nearly three weeks after the two sides agreed to the contract. Jon Heyman says before Correa agreed to the deal with the Mets, Scott Boras “worked hard” to get the Yankees involved, but they love their shortstop prospects and don’t want to up payroll further. Sigh. The Yankees should just offer Correa one year and $50M and see what he says. They need the bat, there wouldn’t be any long-term risk associated with the injury that has everyone worried, and it’s not like they’re gonna spend the money otherwise.

4. Scouting the Trade Market: Seth Brown. Another left field candidate came off the board over the weekend, though not anyone as potentially impactful as Michael Conforto or Daulton Varsho. The Mariners signed A.J. Pollock to a one-year deal worth $7M. Pollock passed on a $13M player option with the White Sox and received a $5M buyout, so he left $1M on the table.

The Yankees were not connected to Pollock, who doesn’t really fit their needs as a righty platoon bat with defense that is slipping at age 35. Here is the updated list of free agent outfielders by projected 2023 WAR (actual outfielders only, so no Trey Mancini, etc.):

1. Jurickson Profar: +1.4 WAR (my Scouting the Market post)
2. Tommy Pham: +1.0 WAR
3. David Peralta: +0.9 WAR
4. Andrew McCutchen: +0.7 WAR
5. Ben Gamel: +0.6 WAR

The list of trade candidates isn’t much better once you get beyond Bryan Reynolds. You know the names: Max Kepler, maybe Trent Grisham, possibly a few Cardinals, etc. No one especially appealing. One name we haven’t discussed: Seth Brown. I had Oakland’s 25-homer man on my list to write about, but I waited too long, and MLBTR beat me to the punch. Drat.

Brown was the Athletics’ best position player behind Sean Murphy last season, and while the A’s signed Aledmys Díaz and Jace Peterson to two-year contracts a few weeks ago, those signings were made to keep the MLBPA off their back and avoid another grievance about not spending revenue sharing money. Oakland is not trying to contend or anything like that. Brown is very much available.

"Seth is a popular guy for sure,” A’s GM David Forst said during an radio interview in November when asked about interest in Brown. “He made such a leap in the second half. Filled in great at both first and right field. His offense took to the next level. I look forward to him doing that in Oakland next year.”

Brown does two things the Yankees need: hit left-handed and play left field. And sock dingers. You can never have too many guys who do that. Does Brown make sense for the Yankees? Let’s take a look.

Background

Brown, 30, was a 19th round pick out of Lewis-Clark State College in 2015. It was a slow climb up the ladder (Brown spent two full seasons in High-A) and Brown was never more than a fringe top 30 prospect in Oakland’s system. He reached the big leagues in Aug. 2019 and went up and down in 2020 and early in 2021. The A’s called Brown up for good in Aug. 2021, and 2022 was his first full season in the show. He hit .230/.305/.444 (117 wRC+) with 25 home runs.

Offense

As noted, Brown authored a .230/.305/.444 (117 wRC+) batting line last season, which doesn’t jump off the page. He did seem to hit his stride in the second half, however, roughly 700 plate appearances into his big league career. Some numbers (video):

2022 first half: .216/.269/.396 (91 wRC+) with 25.9 K% and 6.2 BB% in 305 PA
2022 second half: .249/.348/.507 (147 wRC+) with 26.8 K% and 12.8 BB% in 250 PA

2021-22 vs. RHP: .234/.304/.483 (122 wRC+) with 26.9 K% and 8.8 BB% in 737 PA
2021-22 vs. LHP: .167/.232/.307 (56 wRC+) with 29.6 K% and 7.2 BB% in 125 PA

You can dream of getting the second half version of Brown for a full season, though that seems unlikely, mostly because few players are truly capable of that. The overall .230/.305/.444 (117 wRC+) line, with the production coming almost exclusively against righties, is probably closer to reality. The power will have to make up for the low AVG and OBP.

Brown’s underlying numbers are solid. His swing and chase rates are ever so slightly better than league average, and while his 13.3% swinging strike rate the last two years is elevated, it’s not out of line with other second and third tier power hitters around the league. Brown definitely passes the contact quality test. His 2021-22 numbers:

• Average exit velocity: 89.1 mph (MLB average: 88.6 mph)
• 90th percentile exit velocity: 106.8 mph (MLB average: 103.8 mph)
• Barrel rate: 13.3% (MLB average: 7.5%)
• Hard-hit rate: 40.6% (MLB average: 38.2%)

Brown’s barrel rate and 90th percentile exit velocity, two numbers that measure high-end contact and better forecast future power production than average exit velocity, are very strong. He’s in the same neighborhood as Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto. Brown doesn’t have the same innate hitting ability as them, but he can punish the baseball like them.

As a left-handed power hitter, you want Brown to pull the ball in the air in Yankee Stadium. There is something to be said for having a short swing and spraying the ball around, but that isn’t Brown’s skill set, and you can’t expect him to do that and be something he’s not. Let him grip it and rip it Raul Ibañez style. That can be helpful too.

(Brown hit 45 home runs, a not insignificant total, in 862 plate appearances the last two seasons. He did that while playing home games in the sport’s second worst home run park.)

Brown’s 34.3% ground ball rate and 42.6% pull rate the last two seasons are short porch friendly. He’s not quite Anthony Rizzo (33.2% grounders and 48.1% pull rate in 2022), but it’ll do. And as a lefty with a tendency to pull the ball, Brown does get shifted: 88.6% of his plate appearances last year. That was a top 25 mark in baseball. That’s Joey Gallo and Max Kepler territory.

Over the last two years Brown had a .257 BABIP when shifted and a .294 BABIP when not shifted. I’m sure he’ll pick up a few extra hits on pulled grounders and low liners with the new anti-shift rules moving forward. How much help will he get? I’m not sure, and we need to be careful when we look at numbers with the shift and numbers without the shift. This, for example …

… is recorded as an out into the shift even though it would have been a routine ground ball to the second baseman without the shift. We can’t just take a guy’s numbers without the shift and say this is what he’ll be going forward. I don’t think the shift going away will hurt Brown. It’s not like he’ll lose more hits (though it would be funny if it becomes apparent shifts were a waste of time and normal infield alignments were the way to go all along). It’s just that we should keep our expectations realistic about how much the new shift limitations will help.

So, to wrap it up, Brown is a pull heavy lefty with real power (I’d say legit 30-homer potential with the move from whatever they’re calling Oakland Coliseum these days to Yankee Stadium) and he will take a walk, but he needs a platoon partner, and chances are his AVG and OBP will be a drag. An imperfect yet productive hitter who fits best as a 6-7-8 hitter on a good team. The Yankees need more lefty thump and Brown can certainly provide that.

Baserunning

Sneaky good! As a power and plate discipline platoon lefty, it’s easy to stereotype Brown as a lumbering slugger, but he does add value on the bases. Here are his baserunning numbers the last two seasons:

• Stolen bases: 15-for-18 (83%)
• FanGraphs baserunning: +2.4 runs
• Baseball Prospectus baserunning: +1.9 runs
• Extra-base taken rate: 44% (MLB average: 41%)
• Home-to-first time: 4.49 seconds (MLB average: 4.41 seconds for a lefty hitter)
• Sprint speed: 28.0 feet per second (MLB average: 27.0 feet per second)

Pretty good! Not amazing, we’re not talking about Jacoby Ellsbury on the bases here, but Brown can steal a timely base and go first-to-third on a single. For a big dude (listed at 6-foot-1 and 223 lbs.), Brown won’t jam things up and force his team to go station-to-station when he’s the lead runner. Nice secondary value here.

Defense

Brown is a prototypical first base/corner outfield guy, and he has played more right field than left despite a weak arm. His average competitive throw was 83.2 mph last season. The right field average is 90.5 mph and the left field average is 87.5 mph. That is not the kinda arm you want in right field, yet that’s where the A’s have stuck him more often than not.

The career numbers say Brown is better in left field (+9 DRS and +3 OAA) than right (+0 DRS and +0 OAA), though we’re dealing with samples smaller than 700 innings, so who knows? The Athletics put Brown in center field late last year – “This is a legit opportunity for him to show us what he can do in center field. I wouldn’t have him out there if I wasn’t confident in that ability,” manager Mark Kotsay told Matt Kawahara in September – which I suspect was a pre-offseason trade showcase more than a legitimate shot to show he belongs there.

“They’ve been telling me for a while that this guy is a really good outfielder,” former A’s manager Bob Melvin told Jerry McDonald last May. “You look at some of the numbers – the analytics about jumps, routes, and what he covers – it’s really impressive. You’d think he’d be slower, but he’s not, and he runs better than I probably thought in my head.”

Bad defenders tend to make themselves known quickly. We may not be able to accurately measure exactly how bad they are quickly, but it usually doesn’t take long to pick out the bad defenders. As best I can tell, Brown’s outfield defense has never been identified as an issue. He’s probably a notch or two below what the Yankees would prefer in left field, but he appears competent out there.

As for first base, Brown’s glovework has been touted as solid, and the ability to play first base shouldn’t be overlooked. DJ LeMahieu is the backup first baseman and he’s trying to avoid major foot surgery. Next in line at first base is Oswaldo Cabrera. We kinda have to expect Rizzo to miss time with a back flare up at some point given his history. Brown’s ability to play first base could come in handy.

Injury history

Pretty much spotless. Brown spent two weeks on the COVID list in 2021 and that’s it. He’s never been on the injured list otherwise, Majors or minors.

Contract status

Brown fell a bit short of qualifying as a Super Two this offseason, so he’s entering his third and final pre-arbitration season, then it’s three years of arbitration. Four years of control is nice, but honestly, I don’t think they hold a ton of value. Brown turns 31 in July and what are the odds he’s worth rostering as a 34-year-old in 2026? Also, home runs pay in arbitration. Brown could suffer the Chris Carter/Luke Voit fate and become a non-tender candidate by hitting too many.

Brown has two minor league options remaining and those have value as long as you don’t give up a big prospect package to get him. If you consider Brown a role player, a platoon guy who hits toward the bottom of the lineup, and give up an appropriate package to get him, then sure, the roster flexibility provided by the options is worth something.

What would it take to get him?

It’s really hard to pin down the trade value of a player like Brown. He’s coming off a nice season and a big second half, but he’s already 30 and he doesn’t play a premium position, and the four years of control are more valuable in theory than in reality. The profile – lefty platoon bat at first base and the corner outfield spots – is close to a dime a dozen, right? That’s Garrett Jones.

The Blue Jays traded 3.5 years of Rowdy Tellez for two relievers on the roster bubble (Bowden Francis and Trevor Richards), though Toronto was in contention and those two arms provided immediate MLB value. Winning is not the priority in Oakland and the A’s presumably want a more long-term piece for Brown. And that’s fine, the Yankees can trade a mid-range prospect for him. It’s better to do that than subtract from the big league roster. It’s just a matter of finding common ground.

The other thing is the A’s march to the beat of their own drum*. They zero in on guys they really like, and typically take quantity over quality packages. The Sean Murphy trade haul has been widely panned, but the A’s really believe Esteury Ruiz will be a star, so they took him as the centerpiece. If the Athletics happen to like some random Single-A infielder, yeah, they just might take that player and that player only for Brown (Andres Chaparro feels Athletics-y).

* It generally serves them well too. Only the Dodgers went to the postseason more times than the Athletics from 2012-20. That said, they’ve already designated one player (Zach Logue) in the Matt Chapman trade for assignment, and are moving on from one player (Cristian Pache) in the Matt Olson trade. Sometimes the head-scratchers prove to be mistakes.

A Yankees trade for Brown would involve a prospects(s), not a big league piece. Realistically, the A’s are not taking Aaron Hicks or Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and subtracting Cabrera or Ron Marinaccio wouldn’t make much sense. Throw them one or two Grade C prospects and call it a deal. Can the Athletics really expect more? Maybe they can given the thinned out free agent market. (There have been no updates to Brown’s MLBTR archive regarding potential interest this offseason.)

Keep in mind the Yankees would have to clear a 40-man roster spot for Brown, so you have to bake that into the cake. Trading two Grade C prospects for Brown is fine in a vacuum, but then you have to designate someone for assignment, which is another player you’re losing. It would be easier to just trade a 40-man player for Brown, but who could that be? Deivi García? Yoendrys Gómez? Estevan Florial? Greg Weissert? I have no idea.

Either way, it should not cost much to acquire Brown. Players with this skill set don’t fetch much no matter how years of control remain. Giving up two lesser prospects is fine, though there is a 40-man component to this as well. If the Athletics insist on a top 10 prospect for Brown, say a Trey Sweeney or a Randy Vasquez, then the Yankees should just walk away. This feels like a “they do it at their price or they don’t do it at all” trade.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

As an everyday left fielder, Brown is probably stretched, but I think there is a role for him on the Yankees. He could be a platoon guy who gets 350 plate appearances against righties, and plays the two corner outfield spots and some first base. Brown fits the roster better than Hicks, no? Hicks draws walks and can play center field if needed, and that’s about it.

I would prefer Brown to someone like Kepler, who you’d more or less be locked into playing given his contract and what’ll you’ll have to give up in a trade. The Yankees could add Brown to the left field mix early in the season, let him take aim at the short porch, then slide him into a lesser role after finding a more permanent solution at the deadline (and after Hicks is traded to avoid his 10-for-5 no-trade protection?). That would be the ideal plan.

The Yankees have carried players like this – lefty pull hitters in the corner spots – in part-time roles over the years. Some work (Matt Carpenter, Eric Hinske, Raul Ibañez) and some don’t (Garrett Jones, Matt Lawton), like everything else in this sport. As the full-time left field solution, no, I can’t get on board with Brown. As a role player who helps hold down the fort until the Yankees can get a better left fielder at the deadline, yeah, I can get behind that.

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