January 3rd, 2023: Grisham, Minor League Signings, Winter Ball

Welcome to 2023, the year the Yankees slay the Astros dragon and win the World Series. Will it happen? Eh, probably not, but if it does I’ll edit this part out and say I called it. For real though, Happy New Year, everyone. Thank you for reading and thank you for your support. I hope your 2023 is as good as Aaron Judge’s 2022. Now let’s get to today’s post.

1. Scouting the Trade Market: Trent Grisham. In six weeks and one day pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa for Spring Training. Six weeks and one day after that, it’ll be Opening Day at Yankee Stadium. That leaves the Yankees plenty of time to make moves and left field is their primary focus right now. A lefty bat is needed.

As you know, the outfield market is dwindling, with the Michael Conforto signing and Daulton Varsho trade taking two of the better options off the board. There is not a clearly above-average outfielder remaining in free agency. Here, yet again, are the best available free agent outfielders by projected 2023 WAR:

1. Jurickson Profar: +1.4 WAR (my Scouting the Market post)
2. A.J. Pollock: +1.0 WAR
3. Tommy Pham: +1.0 WAR
4. David Peralta: +0.9 WAR
5. Andrew McCutchen: +0.7 WAR

A new left field possibility emerged last week: Trent Grisham. Dennis Lin (subs. req’d) reports the Padres are “open to discussing” Grisham, their center fielder, in trades. They’re also willing to discuss shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, though the Yankees pretty clearly aren’t in the market for a shortstop. For better or worse, they’re committed to the kids and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

“With the (Xander) Bogaerts signing, our intention is to play this position group together,” Padres GM A.J. Preller told Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) last month when asked about possibly trading Grisham and/or Kim. “We like the flexibility and the versatility it gives our team.”

This is a pretty flimsy rumor even by current hot stove standards – “open to discussing” – but it does give me an excuse to write about Grisham, who’s gone backwards since his breakout 2020 season and hit .184/.284/.341 (83 wRC+) in 2022. By wRC+, he ranked 124th among the 130 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, right behind Kiner-Falefa.

Why is it worth discussing a player who was one of the worst hitters in baseball during the most recent season? Well, the shrinking list of alternatives is one reason, and also because Grisham has noteworthy underlying skills. This is a textbook “buy low on a talented player and hope you can get the best out of him” situation. Let’s dig in.

Background

The Brewers selected Grisham (he went by Trent Clark back then) with the No. 15 pick in the 2015 draft (the Yankees took James Kaprielian with the next pick) and he made his MLB debut in Aug. 2019. You surely remember his costly error in that year’s NL Wild Card Game (video). Milwaukee traded Grisham to the Padres that offseason, though not because of the error. It was a good ol’ fashioned baseball trade:

• Brewers get: LHP Eric Lauer and IF Luis Urías
• Padres get: RHP Zach Davies and OF Trent Grisham

“We saw it as a good baseball trade,” Preller told AJ Cassavell afterward. “Sometimes there are deals because of salary issues. Sometimes there are deals because someone's getting toward free agency, because clubs are contending or not contending. In this case, it's just a good baseball trade that fits for both clubs.”

Grisham, now 26, stepped right in as San Diego’s everyday center fielder in 2020 and authored a .251/.352/.456 (122 wRC+) line with 10 homers and 10 steals during the shortened pandemic season. He slipped to .242/.327/.413 (103 wRC+) in 2021 and then down to .184/.284/.341 (83 wRC+). Grisham didn’t just stall out. He’s gone backwards.

Offense

At the end of the day, the slash line is the slash line, and .184/.284/.341 (83 wRC+) is the factual record of how Grisham performed in 2022. He showed signs of life in July and August (120 wRC+), but it didn’t last (1 wRC+ in September!), and the Padres sat him a bunch of games down the stretch. Grisham did take Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom deep in the Wild Card Series though (video). That’s pretty cool.

I wouldn’t bother writing about Grisham unless the underlying data was promising. Consider:

• He’s never had a sub-10% walk rate in his career. Not at any level and not in any number of plate appearances. Grisham has always drawn a lot of walks.
• He hasn’t had a double-digit swinging strike rate since he was in rookie ball in 2015, and rookie ball pitch data is unreliable. He’s a lefty who gets the bat on the ball.
• Grisham’s barrel rate (8.1%) and 90th percentile exit velocity (104.5 mph) were both better than the league average in 2022 (7.5% and 103.8 mph).
• With the hard-hit ability comes a fair amount of fly balls: 43.3% grounders in 2022 and 42.0% career. Hit the ball hard in the air and good things tend to happen.
• Grisham had a .231 BABIP in 2022 after a .295 BABIP in nearly 1,000 plate appearances from 2019-21. Seems unlikely his true talent level shifted that much.

The deGrom homer in the Wild Card Series was no joke. Watch the video. deGrom painted 100 mph down and away, and Grisham drove it the other way to left-center. You can’t fake a home run like that. That wasn't a can of corn that found the first row of the short porch. Grisham has real power and plate discipline, and he’s always posted better than average contact rates.

Then why the 28.6% strikeout rate last year? It was 22.6% in 2021 and the +6.0 percentage point year-to-year increase was fifth largest in baseball. It boils down to a fouled up approach. Grisham went from a 16.5% chase rate in 2021 to a 20.8% chase rate in 2022 (which is still great!), and his in-zone swing rate dipped from 60.7% to 54.2% (MLB average is 66.0%). Translation: Grisham swung at more balls and fewer strikes. Here are Grisham’s takes the last two years (full-size image):

Grisham’s takes were concentrated on the edges of the zone in 2021, as they should be. Last year he took more pitches over the plate, and when you take pitches over the plate, you’re taking strikes and putting yourself in unfavorable counts, not to mention passing on hittable pitches (not all strikes are hittable, but many are). In related news, Grisham led baseball in called strike threes in 2022.

The strikeout rate increase and down season was the result of Grisham’s approach collapsing. The good contact quality suggests his swing was intact. For whatever reason Grisham swung at more pitches out of the zone and fewer pitches in the zone (that is likely related, put yourself in pitchers’ counts and they’re gonna try to get you to chase out of the zone), and that’s a one-way ticket to a bad season. Opponents will pick up on that and exploit it real quick.

Grisham is said to be very hard on himself and it’s possible he began to press after a slow start (.153/.274/.250 and 59 wRC+ in April), and things snowballed from there. Unfortunately he’s a cliche machine – “I think it just goes back to getting back to myself. If I want to play like myself, I need to get back to being myself,” Grisham told Jeff Sanders in September when asked what he needs to do to get right – and hasn’t provided much insight into his struggles.

“He's just had a difficult season and sometimes that beats you down a little bit,” Padres manager Bob Melvin told Maria Guardado in October. “... Trent's got a lot more in his game. I really believe not only can he be a premier outfielder – he's got power, he's got speed – his career should take off into a different trajectory. Maybe just slowed down a bit this year, but he's a really good player.”

How fixable is an approach? This isn’t a prospect who needs to improve his plate discipline to have a chance at a big league career. Grisham has always made very good swing decisions, then suddenly those decisions got worse last year. We’re not talking about a player who must learn something new. Grisham has to get back to what he was doing before. He’s going to play the entire 2023 season at age 26. He’s not permanently broken, is he?

While we’re here, I should also note Grisham has been a bit better against lefties (106 wRC+ since 2020) than righties (99 wRC+) in his career, so he doesn’t need a platoon partner. Also, Grisham has an unusual grip and holds the bat like a golf club, with his thumb along the bat rather than wrapped around the handle:

The Brewers tried to coach that grip out of him, and after he hit .227 with a .343 SLG in the minors from 2017-18, Grisham said forget it, I’m doing what’s comfortable. He then hit .300/.407/.603 (166 wRC+) between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, and reached the big leagues. Unusual doesn’t necessarily mean bad. Gripping the bat that way works for Grisham.

"It just made me so mad and fed up with what I was doing,” Grisham told Tom Haudricourt about his unique grip in Aug. 2019. “... I was done doing things the way everybody wanted me to. I just wanted to go back to what felt comfortable for me.”

Grisham’s pull rate (42.6%) and shift rate (56.8%) the last two years were a tick higher than the average for lefty hitters (40.5% and 55.0%, respectively). He isn’t someone you’d expect to get a big boost from the new anti-shift rules. In fact, they might hurt Grisham because he regularly bunts against the shift. His bunt numbers:

• 2022: 8 bunts hits (4th in MLB) and 21 bunt attempts (4th in MLB)
• 2020-22: 16 bunt hits (4th in MLB) and 39 bunt attempts (4th in MLB)

I guess that makes Grisham the fourth most prolific bunter in baseball. The anti-shift rules will take away some (not all) bunting lanes. Will Grisham pick enough extra hits on balls that would have been outs with the shift to make up for the hits he’ll lose on would-be bunts against the shift? Beats me. Point is, the bunt is in his arsenal and the new rules may limit opportunities.

As bad as Grisham was last year, the underlying skills remained mostly intact. He still hit the ball hard, he didn’t hit more ground balls, and he didn’t swing and miss more often. For whatever reason he became overly passive and put himself in a lot of bad counts. Is that fixable? Can Grisham regain his pre-2022 approach? That is the single biggest question here.

Baserunning

Grisham is not much of a stolen base threat and it’s not because he had a .284 OBP last year and wasn’t on base often enough to run. He attempted a steal in only 5% of his opportunities in 2022, with a stolen base opportunity defined as being on first or second with the next base open. The MLB average is 5%. The last two years are a bit interesting though:

Grisham in 2021: 18 steal attempts and 9% attempt rate
Padres in 2021: 2nd in steal attempts and 2nd in attempt rate

Grisham in 2022: 8 steal attempts and 5% attempt rate
Padres in 2022: 27th in steal attempts and 28th in attempt rate

The Padres did not have Fernando Tatis Jr., who went 25-for-29 stealing bases in 2021, last year because of his injury and suspension, though his absence alone doesn’t explain the teamwide de-emphasis on stolen bases. Seems to me the Padres adopted a more conservative approach under Melvin, their new manager? The Athletics typically ranked near the bottom of the league in steal attempts and attempt rate during Melvin’s 11 years as manager.

Anyway, Grisham is an excellent baserunner despite not stealing many bases. He’s fast and he excels at all the non-stolen base parts of baserunning. Some numbers the last two seasons:

• FanGraphs baserunning: +7.8 runs
• Baseball Prospectus baserunning: +3.2 runs
• Extra-base taken rate: 58% (MLB average: 41%)
• Home-to-first time: 4.35 seconds (MLB average: 4.41 seconds for a lefty hitter)
• Sprint speed: 28.8 feet per second (MLB average: 27.0 feet per second)

Several rules intended to promote stolen bases are set to take effect this coming season (larger bases, only two pickoff attempts per plate appearance, etc.) and Grisham seems like the kinda guy who could really take advantage and swipe more bags. He’s fast and he generally runs the bases well, and his attempt rate was nearly double the league average as recently as 2021.

This all points to a player with untapped stolen base potential. Grisham is speedy and he runs the bases well overall, there are new rules encouraging stolen bases, and trading for him would unshackle him from the seemingly anti-steal Melvin. Grisham is willing to run and be aggressive on the bases. The 9% attempt rate in 2021 and his extra-base taken rate tell us that. There might be a 20+ stolen base guy in there waiting to be unleashed.

Defense

If you’re gonna hit .184/.284/.341 (83 wRC+) and stay in a contender’s lineup, you better catch the damn ball, and Grisham can. He’s a two-time Gold Glover (2020 and 2022) who has rated very well in the field, and the eye test matches the numbers. We’ve got three seasons worth of data telling us Grisham is a top notch defender. His 2020-22 defensive stats:

• DRS: +23 (12th in MLB overall, 7th among outfielders)
• UZR: +9.0 (33rd in MLB overall, 18th among outfielders)
• OAA: +23 (11th in MLB overall, 3rd among outfielders)

Statcast puts Grisham’s catch success rate at 91% the last three years, comfortably above the 88% estimated success rate given the balls hit his way. The directional components of OAA say Grisham is outstanding going gap-to-gap and above-average coming in and going back. His first step is in the 78% percentile. So yeah, he’s an elite ball-getter.

The only knock on Grisham defensively is his arm. His average competitive throw was only 85.9 mph last year, below the 90.0 mph center field average. The left field average is 87.4 mph and Grisham was below that too. He certainly has the range you want in left field in Yankee Stadium. The arm is lacking, though it’s not the end of the world. Grisham is a top of the line defender.

(Grisham hasn’t played much left field in his career. Only 17 games at the big league level and none since 2019, and only 69 games in the minors. I don’t think Grisham would have much trouble in left as long as you give him Spring Training to adjust.)

Injury history

Grisham has had some injuries in his career but probably not enough to get saddled with the “injury prone” label. Here’s a recap:

• 2016: Missed six weeks total with multiple hamstring strains in Low-A.
• 2018: Missed a month with an unknown injury in Double-A.
• 2021: Missed 10 days with a hamstring strain and three weeks with a bruised heel.

That mystery injury in 2018 couldn’t have been too bad. Grisham returned that May and stayed on the field the rest of that season and until his hamstring acted up in April 2021. A series of leg and lower body injuries for a speed guy isn’t ideal, but other than the hamstring and heel trouble in 2021, Grisham has been healthy the last four seasons.

(Just to circle back, Grisham posted a 9% stolen base attempt rate in 2021 despite hamstring and heel injuries. Attempting that many steals despite those injuries suggests a willingness to run even though he didn’t do it much in 2022.)

Contract status

Grisham is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and MLBTR projects he'll make $2.6M in 2023. He'll remain under team control as an arb-eligible player in 2024 and 2025 as well, so it’s three years of control. Also, Grisham has all three minor league options remaining, but if you trade for him and have to send him down, something’s gone wrong. The options don’t have much value to me.

What will it take to get him?

The Padres are said to be focused on starting pitchers controllable beyond 2023. They have Joe Musgrove signed long-term, though Yu Darvish and Blake Snell will be free agents next winter, and their depth behind that top three isn’t great. San Diego’s current rotation depth chart:

1. RHP Yu Darvish: Free agent after 2023
2. LHP Blake Snell: Free agent after 2023
3. RHP Joe Musgrove: Signed through 2027
4. RHP Nick Martinez: Much better as a reliever than as a starter in 2022
5. RHP Seth Lugo: They’re gonna give the longtime reliever a chance to start
6. RHP Reiss Knehr: 4.64 ERA (4.77 FIP) in MLB spot start duty
7. LHP Jay Groome: 3.34 ERA (4.56 FIP) in 13 Triple-A starts in 2022
8. LHP Ryan Weathers: 6.73 ERA (7.21 FIP) in Triple-A in 2022

The Padres surely hope Groome, a former first round pick who came over in the Eric Hosmer trade with the Red Sox, can claim a rotation spot sometime in 2023, and obviously they hope Weathers rebounds. Weathers, David’s son and the No. 7 pick in the 2018 draft, impressed at times in 2021. Clearly though, San Diego could use another starter, someone they could plug into the No. 4-5 spots in 2023 and keep in 2024, if not longer.

The Padres are in this pitching bind for two reasons. One, trades. They’ve traded away A LOT of prospects in recent years. And two, they’ve had a hard time finishing off the development of their young pitchers. Weathers backslid, Chris Paddack stalled out, Lauer and Cal Quantrill spun their wheels before going elsewhere and almost immediately getting better, etc. The Padres shouldn’t stop trying to develop young arms, but it has been an organizational weakness the last few years.

The Yankees have three pitchers who meet the “starter controllable beyond 2023” criteria: Nestor Cortes, Domingo Germán, and Clarke Schmidt. Frankie Montas and Luis Severino are a year away from free agency and Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón aren’t getting traded. Others like Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez may be too unproven for the Padres, or at least won’t be enough to headline a Grisham trade.

Two years ago the Yankees would’ve been laughed out of the league had they offered Cortes for Grisham. Now the Padres wish they could do that trade. Grisham’s gone backwards while Nestor reinvented himself and became a legitimately above-average starter. The Yankees need a lefty hitting outfielder, though I don’t think they’d seriously consider Cortes for Grisham even though the team control matches up perfectly (three years of each).

Germán (two years of control) and Schmidt (five years of control) are another matter. I’m certain the Yankees would be open to trading either for Grisham. Maybe even both. The Yankees will need No. 6 and 7 starters at some point in 2023, that’s just baseball, but making those guys available in a trade for a potential everyday outfielder is a no-brainer. There’s no way they’d be off-limits.

One more name to consider: Mike King. The elbow injury complicates his trade value, though the Padres are doing the “try a reliever as a starter” thing with Lugo (and Martinez), so I imagine they would be willing to do the same with King. And, if it doesn’t work, they can always put him back in the bullpen and let him dominate. Three years of King for three years of Grisham? Grisham stunk last year and King is coming off a major arm injury. They’re both damaged goods, so to speak.

I don’t think the Yankees want to trade King, but I doubt they’d move Cortes for Grisham, and I’m not sure Germán and/or Schmidt is enough to entice the Padres. King may represent the middle ground between Cortes and Germán/Schmidt that gets it done. To be clear, I’m not endorsing a King for Grisham trade. I’m just throwing it out there as a possibility.

The Yankees need a lefty hitting outfielder who can cover ground and the Padres need a starter they can keep beyond 2023. The dots connect in such a way that a trade between the two teams appears doable. Doable does not mean it will get done, but you needn’t try too hard to see how the Yankees and Padres could match up for a fairly notable starter-for-outfielder trade.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Your answer to this question depends entirely on whether you think Grisham’s bat and approach can be salvaged. More accurately, the answer depends on whether the Yankees think Grisham’s bat and approach can be salvaged. If they believe their hitting gurus can get him on track, I would have to think they’ll show serious interest and pursue him aggressively*. If not, they’ll stay away.

* Curtis Granderson is a good parallel. Granderson had several great years with the Tigers before starting to go backwards, yet the Yankees badly wanted him. They traded for him, hitting coach Kevin Long fixed him up, and Granderson became a two-time 40-homer guy who received MVP votes in pinstripes.

The question we haven’t answered yet is why would the Padres trade Grisham? The “open to discussing” rumor is not exactly a firm “he’s available.” Every team is open to discussing every player. GMs wouldn’t be doing their job otherwise. It’s possible the Padres have soured on Grisham and want to unload him, but consider:

• Grisham walks a good deal and the secondary skills (baserunning, defense) are so good that you can live with him as your No. 9 hitter.
• The Padres don’t have a left fielder. Their projected starter is light-hitting José Azocar. Trade Grisham and that’s two open outfield spots.
• FanGraphs has San Diego’s estimated 2023 luxury tax payroll at $266.7M. They have to find cheap production somewhere.
• The Padres would be selling low on a player who was considered a long-term building block as recently as eight months ago.

Tatis is expected to move to the outfield when he returns a few weeks into the season (he played 24 games in the outfield in 2021) and that’s the best place for him. His throwing at shortstop is erratic and he can make good use of his speed in the outfield. Tatis in left and Grisham in center appears to be the master plan. The Padres could trade Grisham for pitching though, then put Tatis in center and sign a David Peralta type to hold down left field for a year. Preller has options.

I’m torn on Grisham. Last year was ugly and it can’t be ignored. But also how often do just turned 26-year-olds with elite baserunning and center field defense, and three years of control, become available? Add in the fact Grisham was an above-average hitter from 2019-21 and the answer is basically never. Guys like that so rarely become available. 

Grisham feels like the right player at the wrong time. In 2015 and 2016, when the Yankees began their quasi-rebuild by acquiring talented young players who were deemed expendable by their former teams (Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, etc.), Grisham would’ve fit right in. Now that the Yankees are a no-doubt contender trying to get over the hump and win a World Series? Eh, I’m not sure. Feels like they need a little more certainty.

That said, the pickings are slim. I mean, Peralta? Max Kepler? Jurickson Profar? Continue to harp on Bryan Reynolds when the Pirates are asking for your first and second born? I would rather the Yankees take a shot on Grisham than hope this is the year the soon-to-be 30-year-old Kepler bucks his 3,300-plate appearance trend of underperforming Statcast and posting historically low BABIPs, you know?

And obviously cost matters too. If the Padres insist on Cortes, then forget it. Nestor is too important, both to the Yankees’ title hopes and my enjoyment of the team. But if Preller & Co. are open to Germán and/or Schmidt, or even King, then I think the Yankees have to do it. Grisham is a risk, but the floor is reasonably high because of his glove (he was a +2.6 WAR player in 2022 even with the 83 wRC+), and the upside is a lefty contact bat with walks and some power.

Unless the Yankees meet Pittsburgh’s asking price for Reynolds, there’s no perfect solution for left field available. They'll have to compromise somewhere, whether it’s Peralta’s age-related risk or Kepler’s low batting average or Grisham’s broken approach. Get Grisham on track though, and he’s a hell of a player who can do a lot of things for the Yankees, including potentially slide over to center field in 2024, after Harrison Bader becomes a free agent.

2. Latest minor league signings. Time for another round of non-roster deals. The Yankees are up to 16 this offseason. It feels like a lot (to me, anyway), but they had 12 such players in camp last year and 20 such players in camp the year before. It feels like a lot because the signings have been bunched together in a two-week span, I think. Here’s the first batch of minor league signings, the second batch, and the third batch. Now here are the latest.

RHP Tyler Danish

Tyler Danish? Should’ve signed Tyler Cannoli instead. Cashman failed. The Yankees have inked Mr. Danish to a minor league contract, according to Sweeny Murti. Danish almost quit baseball a few years ago, but he made it back to the big leagues with the Red Sox last year (his first MLB action since 2018), and at one point he was getting high leverage outs for them. That says more about Boston’s bullpen than it does Danish though.

Now 28, Danish didn’t miss bats with the Red Sox (18.5% strikeouts and 7.5% swinging strikes), though he did get ground balls at 47.2% clip. He’s a lower arm slot guy and his sinker only sits around 90 mph, though it has 21% more sink than the average sinker, same as Clay Holmes. Danish creates that scissor effect you see with guys like Scott Effross and Mike King (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Statcast’s pitch classification algorithm says Danish throws a curveball but I dunno, that looks like a slider to me. It could be a curveball – Andrew Miller insisted his slider was a curveball – and the pitch has 21% more horizontal movement than the average curveball, but I think it’s a slider. Either way, Danish is a low arm slot, lower velocity, sinker/breaking ball reliever.

I count 17 non-40-man roster pitchers who are either established at Triple-A or have played well enough in Double-A to warrant opening 2023 in Triple-A. Then you have 40-man guys who figure to open the season with the RailRiders (Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Greg Weissert, maybe Clarke Schmidt, etc.). It’s a lot of bodies for not a lot of Triple-A roster spots. Spring Training injuries and opt outs will clear this up, but it feels like the Yankees are going above and beyond to bring in Triple-A depth arms this winter. Better now than scrambling in the summer.

OF Billy McKinney

Welcome back, Billy. The Yankees have signed their former prospect to a minor league deal, according to the MiLB.com transactions page. McKinney was originally a first round pick by the Athletics in 2013. They sent him to the Cubs in the Jeff Samardzija trade, the Cubs sent him to the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman trade, then the Yankees sent him to the Blue Jays in the J.A. Happ trade. The Yankees are his sixth organization since 2020.

The 28-year-old McKinney saw a little action with the A’s last season (5-for-52 in 23 games). He spent most of the year in Triple-A and slashed .295/.396/.530 (130 wRC+). Those are some big numbers, though Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate plays in a launching pad in Las Vegas. Las Vegas hit .274/.359/.452 as a team and the pitching staff had a 6.11 ERA. McKinney’s numbers were good more than great given his environment.

With the caveat that you never know when things might click, McKinney likely is what he is at this point. He’s a Quad-A hitter who rates as a bit better than average in the two corner outfield spots defensively. Here are a few numbers:

Career MLB: .206/.277/.387 (77 wRC+) with 26.2 K% and 8.6 BB% (768 PA)
Career Triple-A: .271/.348/.511 (120 wRC+) with 23.7 K% and 9.7 BB% (992 PA)

MLB vs. RHP: .209/.281/.387 (78 wRC+) with 25.2 K% and 8.8 BB% (154 PA)
MLB vs. LHP: .193/.261/.386 (73 wRC+) with 29.9 K% and 7.8 BB% (614 PA)

MLB contact quality: 87.4 mph average exit velocity and 6.2% barrel rate
MLB defense: +3 DRS and +3 OAA in LF and RF, only 2.1 innings in CF

McKinney as anything more than a two-week call up as an injury replacement is pushing it. He’s not a serious candidate for the left field job, but he is a familiar name for the RailRiders. Unless Estevan Florial manages to sneak through waivers, the Yankees still do not have a natural center fielder for Triple-A Scranton. Another outfield signing may be coming.

OF Willie Calhoun

Per Mark Feinsand, the Yankees have signed Calhoun to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training. You may remember him as the guy who made the final out of Corey Kluber’s no-hitter (video). You may also remember him as a hotshot prospect with the Dodgers back in the day. They later traded him to the Rangers in the Yu Darvish deal.

Calhoun, now 28, went to Texas at a time when they had a lot of trouble developing young hitters. Joey Gallo was their biggest development success story from about 2013 until Nate Lowe broke out last season. Guys like Calhoun, Ronald Guzmán, Leonys Martin, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, and Jurickson Profar reached the big leagues and just didn’t progress.

Texas finally cut bait last June and Calhoun spent most of 2022 in Triple-A with the Giants and Rangers, slashing .264/.337/.437 (92 wRC+) in 63 games. That is not gonna cut it for a bat-only guy with no real position. Texas shoehorned Calhoun into left field (the only position he's played in the big leagues) and he’s at -14 DRS and -14 OAA in just under 1,300 career innings, which is roughly a full season’s worth of playing time.

Calhoun is a .240/.299/.404 (84 wRC+) hitter in 936 big league plate appearances, though you can squint your eyes and find things that will pique your interest:

• Calhoun is a lefty swinger who gets the bat on the ball: 15.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% swinging strike rate in those 936 MLB plate appearances. The 7.1% walk rate isn’t amazing but will do the job.
• His average (90.2 mph) and 90th percentile (104.9 mph) exit velocities, and his hard-hit rate (41.4%), were all better than average in 2021, the last time Calhoun had 200 plate appearances in the big leagues.
• He hasn’t had a significant platoon split. Granted, we’re talking an 82 wRC+ against lefties and an 84 wRC+ against righties, but hey, no platoon split.

Back in 2018, Baseball America (subs. req’d) wrote Calhoun is “one of the most talented hitting prospects in the game, with an outstanding combination of barrel control and power … He has great plate coverage, with little problem handling premium velocity or barreling breaking pitches.” This guy was very highly regarded once upon a time.

The combination of contact quantity and quality give Calhoun more upside than the typical minor league signing. I don’t think he’s a left field candidate though. Not yet. His defense is awful and you can’t count on the bat making up for it. The Yankees will try to unlock Calhoun, and if they’re successful, they’ll figure out how he fits later. He’ll have to prove himself in Triple-A first. Going 13-for-32 with five homers in Spring Training won’t win Calhoun a job, nor should it.

Fernández still in limbo

Let's close not with a minor league signing, but rather a roster note: Junior Fernández remains in limbo after being designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Carlos Rodón. This is Day 13 of his seven-day DFA period. The Cubs have a few players (Erich Uelmen and Alfonso Rivas) in DFA limbo beyond their seven days as well, so MLB must not count the Christmas/New Years week as business days for the league calendar. Not sure what else it could be. Can’t believe I’ve never come across this before. We’ll get word on Fernández eventually. Either he’s staying with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player or he’s going on some other team’s 40-man roster via trade or waivers.

3. Winter ball recap. Baseball-wise, New Years does two things for me. One, it makes it feel like Spring Training is getting close, because it is. Only six weeks and one day until pitchers and catchers report. And two, it’s a reminder I need to get started on my annual Top 30 Prospects List. As I do every year, I am planning to run it the Friday before pitchers and catchers report, and this year that’s Feb. 10th. With that announcement out of the way, let’s now recap this year’s winter ball action.

Torres plays 11 games

Gleyber Torres made it through his first ever winter ball stint in one piece. No injury scares or anything. Torres appeared in 11 games for Leones del Caracas in his native Venezuela and went 13-for-45 (.289) with a homer (video), seven walks, and eight strikeouts. He played seven games at second base and four at DH. Not much more to say about Gleyber’s winter ball stint than that. He had a good 11 games at the plate and didn’t get hurt, and the latter is much more important than the former.

Domínguez struggles in Arizona

Disappointing Arizona Fall League stint to wrap up an otherwise excellent season for OF Jasson Domínguez. My 2022 Minor League Player of the Year went 11-for-69 (.159) with four doubles, no homers, eight walks, and 17 strikeouts in 20 games for the Mesa Solar Sox. His 21.3% strikeout rate was better than the 23.3% league average, though that’s still an .159/.250/.217 batting line. Domínguez did go 5-for-5 stealing bases. Here’s a bunch of video.

"I feel like I can get better in every part of my game. There are some areas I need to get better at than others, but I’m advancing, and I feel like I’m learning every time I go on the field," Domínguez told Jesse Sanchez in Arizona. “... I really want to use this time to learn and have some fun. I feel like I’m meeting a lot of people and gaining experience from them and sharing my experience with others, too. I can help them, and they can help me."

Zach Buchanan (subs. req’d) polled scouts about a bunch of prospects in the AzFL and, despite his poor numbers, Domínguez “left evaluators impressed with his skill set … scouts still peg him as an everyday center fielder who hits in the middle of a lineup.” Buchanan also wrote a lengthy feature on Domínguez and how he’s handled all the hype (subs. req’d), so check that out.

It would have been cool for Domínguez, who was three years younger than the average AzFL player, to put an exclamation point on his season with a big showing, but it didn’t happen. Drat. Hitting .273/.375/.461 (135 wRC+) during the regular season and reaching Double-A as a 19-year-old still makes for a pretty excellent season. Really excited to see the The Martian build on it in 2023.

"With the Yankees, my No. 1 goal is to stay healthy and do my work," Domínguez told Sanchez. "I know that if I stay healthy and I do what I have to do, good things will come my way. I don’t know (what level) I’m going to start next season. I don’t control that. All I can control is how I play."

Hardman and Rumfield dominate AzFL

3B Tyler Hardman and 1B T.J. Rumfield did exactly what guys from major college programs are supposed to do in the AzFL. They raked. Their numbers:

• Hardman: .325/.374/.662 with 6 doubles, 6 homers, 7.2 BB%, 26.5 K% in 83 PA
• Rumfield: .400/.477/.582 with 7 doubles, 1 homer, 13.8 BB%, 16.9 K% in 65 PA

I don’t have a league-adjusted wRC+ to give you, but the AzFL average was a .256/.361/.410 line in 2022, just to provide some context. Hardman’s strikeout rate is a concern and that was true in the regular season as well. The righty swinger hit .262/.329/.479 (115 wRC+) in High-A last year, but he was old for the level and had a 30.4% strikeout rate. The whiffs are a red flag. Hardman potentially has a carrying tool in his third base defense though, so it ain’t all bad.

The Yankees acquired Rumfield in the Nick Nelson/Donny Sands trade with the Phillies last offseason and injuries limited him to 57 regular season games in 2022. He’s a lefty hitter with tremendous plate discipline and promising exit velocities, though the power has not shown up in games yet. Rumfield has hit 13 homers in 789 plate appearances at all levels since 2020. That’s as a first baseman, where the bar on power and offense is set pretty high.

I haven’t thought about it much yet at all but Hardman and Rumfield are not locks to make my Top 30 Prospects List. They’re sleepers more than farm system headliners. Still, they were both great in the AzFL, and sometimes it’s nice to see a player just go out and do what he’s expected to do. Hardman and Rumfield mashed in the desert like they should have.

Rortvedt plays in LIDOM

The forgotten third piece in the Josh Donaldson/Isiah Kiner-Falefa trade. An oblique injury and later knee surgery limited C Ben Rortvedt to 48 regular season games in 2022, during which he hit .221/.307/.396 (83 wRC+) with Triple-A Scranton. The injuries and layoff may explain the poor performance, though Rortvedt entered 2022 as a career .241/.316/.355 (96 wRC+) hitter in the minors. He’s never shown much with the stick. He’s a defense-first backstop.

Now 25, Rortvedt went to the Dominican Winter League to get a few more at-bats (the Yankees had to okay it because he had arthroscopic knee surgery in May), and in 12 games with Leones del Escogido, Rortvedt went 4-for-35 (.114) with six walks and 12 strikeouts. LIDOM is extremely pitcher friendly (the league average was .223/.304/.320 this year), but still, it would’ve been nice to see Rortvedt do something at the plate. Oh well. Only 12 games.

Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino are locked in as the two big league catchers and Rortvedt has a minor league option remaining for 2023, so he’ll be the third catcher who shuttles up and down as necessary. He’s a lefty hitter and did manage to hit a ball 111.4 mph in 2021, so there is a little thump in there. The average catcher hit .228/.295/.368 (89 wRC+) in 2022. If Rortvedt could settle in even as an 85 wRC+ hitter, he’d make a nifty backup with his glove and left-handedness.

Abreu still keeping walks down

There have been two mainstays in Tigres del Licey’s rotation since 2018: RHP Albert Abreu and old pal RHP Esmil Rogers. Now 36, Rogers had a 1.43 ERA in 44 innings this winter. He’s spent the last several years bouncing between Korea, Mexico, and Taiwan. He threw an Immaculate Inning last July (video). How about that?

Anyway, Abreu made four LIDOM starts and allowed six runs (four earned) in 11 innings. I am only mentioning this because he walked three batters in those 11 innings, and Abreu’s 2022 walk rate remains a wild and crazy thing:

• 2021 with Yankees: 12.2% in 38.2 IP
• 2022 with Rangers and Royals: 18.8% in 13 IP
• 2022 with Yankees: 5.6% in 25.2 IP

This could easily be a small sample fluke, but Clay Holmes showed up in 2021 and went from a 13.2% walk rate with the Pirates to 3.9% with the Yankees, and it mostly carried over into 2022. We’ve seen the Yankees help a live-armed guy throw more strikes seemingly overnight. Who’s to say they didn’t do it with Abreu? If nothing else, at least he continued keeping the walks down in LIDOM.

The Yankees designated Lucas Luetge for assignment two weeks ago (then traded him to the Braves) and I’ve seen a few folks wonder why he went before Abreu, but it’s not too hard to understand, right? One guy turns 36 in March and relies on spin and deception to get low leverage outs, and will make seven figures in 2023. The other just turned 27 and throws a 100 mph sinker, and will make the minimum. Luetge was a good Yankee, but I’m not sure this was a difficult call for the Yankees.

(Also, Abreu is hardly a lock to remain on the 40-man roster all offseason. Does it really matter if Luetge gets DFA'd in December and Abreu gets DFA’d in February rather than the other way around? My advice is don’t obsess over the 40th spot on the 40-man roster.)

I’m not sure what the future holds for Abreu, who is out of minor league options and is currently on the outside of the projected eight-man bullpen, but he would be awfully interesting if this newfound strike-throwing ability sticks, even if he doesn’t stay with the Yankees. As long as he’s with the Yankees, Abreu’s walk rate is a thing to monitor.

Miscellany

Rough showing for Yankees pitchers in the Arizona Fall League. The combined line for RHP Nelson Alvarez, RHP Yorlin Calderon, and RHP Leam Mendez: 36.1 IP, 40 H, 32 R, 27 ER, 23 BB, 37 K, 5 HR. That’s a 6.69 ERA and 6.09 FIP. They were equally bad and none of those guys are top prospects (Alvarez was lost in the minor league Rule 5 Draft last month), but geez. Not even one guy pitched well … The Yankees also sent RHP Shaine McNeely to the AzFL. He made just one appearance (2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR) before heading home because there was a death in the family. Condolences to the McNeelys … Heading into what can be considered a make or break Spring Training, at least for his time with the Yankees, OF Estevan Florial went 1-for-23 (.044) with nine strikeouts in 13 winter ball games in the Dominican Republic. Yuck. No one is changing their evaluation of Florial based on 13 winter ball games. Still would’ve been nice to see him really tear it up for two weeks … OF Elijah Dunham, meanwhile, hit .300/.383/.500 in 14 games with Cardenales de Lara in Venezuela. Lara hit .287/.367/.443 as a team because they play at altitude and in a hitter friendly ballpark, so Dunham’s numbers are inflated a bit, but it’s still a nice showing. He’ll be the only legit prospect in Triple-A Scranton’s outfield until Domínguez and OF Everson Pereira get promoted … And finally, RHP Jhony Brito allowed three runs in 7.1 winter ball innings, but he also struck out 10 and walked zero. He’s always had great control (5.0% walk rate in the minors), and he’s been missing more bats the last two years, after the Yankees helped him add a little velocity. Brito was added to the 40-man roster in November. He’s a great candidate to unexpectedly throw 40-ish competent innings for the Yankees in 2023.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)