Quick thoughts after the Yankees sign Carlos Rodon

2022 fastball whiff rate leaders: 1. Gerrit Cole, 2. Carlos Rodon.

The Yankees just made the 2023 team a whole lot better. Lefty Carlos Rodon is coming to the Bronx on a six-year contract worth $162M, according to all the trustworthy reporters. That’s a $27M luxury tax hit – it’s the same contract the Red Sox offered Xander Bogaerts, but I digress – and the contract includes a full no-trade clause and no opt outs. Straight six-year deal.

Here’s my look at Rodon as a free agent target. The short version: Rodon comes with injury risk, there’s no denying that, but he’s excellent and one of the game’s premier bat-missers. He’s a bona fide front of the rotation starter and a worthy 1B to Gerrit Cole’s 1A. This is pretty awesome:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Carlos Rodon
3. RHP Luis Severino
4. LHP Nestor Cortes
5. RHP Frankie Montas
6. RHP Domingo German
7. RHP Clarke Schmidt

I suppose the Yankees could flip Montas now, though there are injury concerns in that rotation and keeping the high-end depth would be smart. That said, it never hurts to listen. There aren’t many great starting pitchers left in free agency and maybe some team will pay big for Montas. I think the Yankees will keep Montas but flipping him is certainly more doable now.

The Yankees had one of the best rotations in baseball this past season. Their starters ranked fourth in ERA, fourth in park-adjusted ERA, eighth in FIP, ninth in park-adjusted FIP, third in wOBA allowed, and ninth in WAR. The rotation was the strength of the team in 2022 and there’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength. Rodon replaces the perfectly cromulent Jameson Taillon and that’s an upgrade.

Six years at $27M a year is both more than I thought Rodon would get coming into the offseason and a very reasonable deal in this market. Jacob deGrom got five years at $37M a year, and he’s roughly five years older than Rodon and comes with more recent injury concerns. deGrom is amazing! But Rodon’s really good too. Very nice, very reasonable contract for Rodon.

(Scott Boras, Rodon’s agent, was at Fenway Park on Thursday for Masataka Yoshida’s introductory press conference. Alex Speier says Boras brokered Rodon’s deal while munching on food provided by the Red Sox. Heh.)

Because Rodon rejected the qualifying offer, the Yankees will surrender their second and fifth round picks in next summer’s draft, plus $1M in international bonus money in 2024 (not the Brando Mayea signing period). That's the price of doing business. I’m not gonna sweat two non-first round picks and some international bonus money when the Yankees add a second ace to help their World Series push. Go for it.

FanGraphs estimates the 2023 luxury tax threshold at $292.8M right now, just under the $293M threshold. That’s the highest threshold and it comes with a 90% tax rate. The Yankees have a few paths to trimming payroll (Montas, Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, etc.), but it’ll be tough to bring in a quality left fielder (and do other stuff) and stay under $293M. They’re going over. We should have booed Hal Steinbrenner sooner, eh? Score one for bullying.

The Yankees now have to get a left fielder – an Andrew Benintendi reunion is the path of least resistance, though they could always pursue Michael Conforto or Bryan Reynolds among many others – and sort out the left side of the infield. They need to improve the offense. I really believe that. Left field is the easiest place to do it but it could happen at shortstop and third base too. Maybe catcher as well. Upgrading the lineup is the next order of business.

Rodon and Tommy Kahnle are the two new additions to the roster this offseason – re-signing Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo is better than not re-signing Judge and Rizzo, though they’re not new additions – and Spring Training is two months away. Plenty of time to work on left field and the offense in general. The rotation’s set. Welcome to the Bronx, Carlos.

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