Free Agent Faceoff: Jacob deGrom vs. Justin Verlander

Why not both?

The calendar has flipped to December and the No. 1 priority in Yankeeland remains Aaron Judge. He has not signed yet but might at the Winter Meetings next week. The Yankees are said to have made an offer “in the neighborhood” of eight years and $300M and yeah, I buy it. I assume the Giants have a similar offer on the table if they’re as serious about Judge as they seem.

Regardless of whether Judge stays or leaves, the Yankees have other items on their offseason to-do list. Three years ago they signed Gerrit Cole and did not add another player from outside the organization to the 40-man roster all winter. They signed Cole and did nothing else. They can not repeat that mistake by re-signing Judge (and Anthony Rizzo) and calling it an offseason.

The Yankees won 99 games this past season and it’s difficult to improve a 99-win team, though a) I don’t think they were a true talent 99-win team (I think they were more like a 94-95 win team elevated to 99 wins by Judge’s historic greatness), and b) they do have a few obvious areas that can be improved. It’s difficult to improve a 99-win team but not impossible.

For starters, left field is wide open, and the left side of the infield leaves a lot to be desired. The Yankees could also do things like upgrade the bullpen, solidify the bench, bring in quality Triple-A depth, etc. There’s also the rotation. You can never have enough starting pitching, right? Here is the current rotation depth chart (40-man roster players only):

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. LHP Nestor Cortes
3. RHP Luis Severino
4. RHP Frankie Montas
5. RHP Domingo German
6. RHP Clarke Schmidt
7. RHP Jhony Brito
8. LHP Matt Krook
9. RHP Randy Vasquez

You kinda have to expect Severino and German to miss some time given their injury histories, and as much as I love Nestor, I wouldn’t bet on him posting a .232 BABIP and an 8.2% HR/FB again. That doesn’t mean I think he’ll be bad, just that I don’t think he’ll have another 2.44 ERA (!) season. There’s bound to be at least a little regression there.

Montas did not pitch well as a Yankee and shoulder issues sidelined him twice in the second half (only one injured list stint). He’s a bit of a question mark. Then there’s Schmidt and the kids, all of whom are unproven at the MLB level. That doesn’t mean they can’t be good – Luis Gil and JP Sears helped the Yankees a bunch the last two years – but they are unknowns.

You don’t have to try too hard to see how the Yankees would benefit from adding another starting pitcher, and a good one at that. Here are the top free agent starters by projected 2023 WAR. There’s a clear top tier, then there’s everyone else:

1. RHP Jacob deGrom: +5.5 WAR
2. LHP Carlos Rodon: +4.6 WAR
3. RHP Justin Verlander: +4.2 WAR
4. LHP Andrew Heaney: +2.6 WAR
5. RHP Chris Bassitt: +2.5 WAR
6. RHP Nathan Eovaldi: +2.4 WAR

You could put the top three in any order and I wouldn’t argue, though Rodon is several years younger than deGrom and a decade younger than Verlander. He’s expected to sign a long-term deal (5-6 years) and is worth covering on his own separately. deGrom and Verlander are expected to sign high-priced but shorter term contracts.

The Yankees are finicky about acquiring starting pitchers. They either spend big at the top of the market (Cole, CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka), go for one-year deals (Corey Kluber, Hiroki Kuroda), or trade for guys under team control and thus working on a series of one-year contracts (Montas, Sonny Gray, Michael Pineda, Jameson Taillon, etc.). J.A. Happ’s two-year deal is the lone exception since A.J. Burnett’s five-year contract in 2009. Unless they’re signing the very best, the Yankees have limited risk the last decade or so.

The Yankees somewhat halfheartedly pursued Verlander last offseason. They offered one year and $25M when two other teams (Astros and Blue Jays) offered the same money but also a second year in the form of a player option. Verlander returned to Houston and later indicated the Yankees were never really a consideration given the offers. From Jeff Passan (subs. req’d):

"Houston was at the top of the list," Verlander said. "As negotiations started going, they kind of fell off. Some other teams really started to show a lot of interest. I would say that the leader was probably Toronto. They were great. And I talked to George (Springer, his former Astros teammate now with the Blue Jays) a bunch. They were very proactive to the point that when I signed with Houston, I made sure to let them know that I appreciated it all. Ultimately, when it came down to it, Houston had the same offer. It was all kind of ballpark between them and Toronto, and New York (Yankees) was kind of always just a step behind."

The Yankees could pursue Verlander again this offseason (Jon Heyman says they’ve been in contact), though deGrom is available as well, offering the same Cy Young upside on a short-ish term contract. I know the 2-4 year starting pitcher contracts may not be their usual cup of tea, but surely the Yankees would make an exception for these two, right? They’re special cases.

I want to compare deGrom and Verlander as potential free agent targets and then give Patreon’s poll feature a whirl to see what the masses think. I don’t want to go into detail about their games. I’m comfortable starting with the assumption they’ll both be great when they’re on the field*. If their performance craters, well, that would suck, but it would be a bit unexpected.

* For my money deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis. He’s thrown only 224.1 innings the last three seasons (partly because of the pandemic) but in those 224.1 innings he has a 42.4% strikeout rate and a 4.5% walk rate. That is *insane*. That’s “the most dominant reliever in baseball” stuff but as a starting pitcher.

deGrom and Verlander are power pitchers and bat-missers, so let’s go into this exercise assuming they’ll be both amazing as long as they’re healthy (because they’ve never not been amazing). What about everything else? Let’s look at all that now.

Age

There’s no debating age: Verlander turns 40 in February and deGrom turns 35 in June. Verlander is half-a-decade older and (speaking from experience) the older you get the more things ache and hurt and slow you down, and the longer it takes to recover. deGrom isn’t a spring chicken by baseball standards but Verlander is ancient. The age gap is significant.

A few things about this. One, deGrom will turn 35 next summer but he’s a young 35 in terms of career workload. He had an atypical development path (deGrom was mostly a shortstop in college and didn’t fully commit to pitching until after he was drafted) and doesn’t have as many innings on his arm as most soon-to-be 35-year-olds. The career workloads through age 34:

• deGrom: 1,696 innings
• Verlander: 2,807 innings

That includes MLB, the minors, and the postseason. Verlander reached deGrom’s innings total sometime in 2011, when he was 29. Not all innings are created equally, but deGrom has way less wear and tear on his arm than the typical soon-to-be 35-year-old, at least in theory. The guy regularly hits 100 mph. I don’t think he’d do that if he had another 1,000 innings under his belt.

And two, the Astros handled Verlander carefully this past season and he still seemed to run out of gas in the World Series. Those two World Series starters were a real grind. Verlander labored to complete five innings both times and wasn’t himself. His stuff was down a tick, his control wasn’t as precise, and he just wasn’t sharp. He looked like a pitcher on fumes.

(Annoying fact: Verlander has a career 2.61 ERA in the postseason against the Yankees, and his teams are 7-2 in his nine starts. Against everyone else in the postseason, Verlander has a 3.51 ERA and his teams are 13-13. Friggin’ sigh man.)

A 39-year-old running out of gas in early November isn’t the most surprising thing in the world but again, the Astros handled Verlander carefully. He made just one start on normal rest after June (including the postseason). I’m certain giving him so much extra rest had to do with 2022 being Verlander’s first year back from Tommy John surgery, but he got the extra rest, and he still wore down in the postseason. I doubt he’ll feel any fresher at age 40.

An underappreciated amazing thing about the late 1990s dynasty is the durability. Those dudes rarely missed a game despite playing deep into October every year. Andy Pettitte averaged – averaged – 236.2 innings a year from 1996-2001, postseason included. Verlander has way more postseason experience than deGrom and I think there’s something to be said for knowing how to prepare for a seven-month season rather than a six-month season. I also think preparation can only help so much at Verlander’s age. The age gap strongly favors deGrom.

Injury history

It’s kinda weird the soon-to-be 40-year-old with one post-Tommy John surgery season under his belt is the lesser injury risk, isn’t it? Verlander had Tommy John surgery following his Opening Day start in 2020 and missed the rest of the (shortened) season as well as 2021. He missed three months with a triceps issue in 2015 and that’s it. Squeaky clean injury history otherwise.

Anecdotally, the first year back from Tommy John surgery seems crucial. Get through that first year with no other issues, and you’re in the clear. But, deal with a few setbacks in that first year and you’re probably going to have more bumps in the road moving forward. Verlander got through that first post-elbow reconstruction year with no further issues, so that’s encouraging.

deGrom had Tommy John surgery himself as a minor leaguer in 2010 and he’s had multiple significant arm injuries the last two seasons (but no surgeries). The list:

• 2021: Season ended in early July because of forearm and flexor issues.
• 2022: Missed the first three months with a stress fracture in his shoulder.

Tests showed deGrom’s elbow ligament was intact following those 2021 injuries, though he also missed 10 days with elbow soreness in 2018 and 2019, and his 2016 ended in early September because he needed ulnar nerve transposition surgery in his elbow. deGrom’s elbow woes span a decade, then he threw in a shoulder fracture for good measure this past season.

Similar to the Astros and Verlander, the Mets handled deGrom carefully this past season. They brought him back slowly from the shoulder fracture and gave him a long rehab stint. They did the same thing with Max Scherzer as well. He had multiple oblique strains and was brought along slowly. The Mets did that to ensure those two were at their best in October* (welp).

* The cautious approach with deGrom (and Scherzer) might’ve cost the Mets the division. They had a 10.5-game lead on June 1st, blew it, then finished with the same 101-61 record as the Braves. Atlanta won the division because they won the season series 10-9 and had the tiebreaker. One more deGrom (or Scherzer) start could’ve meant a division title.

Between injuries and the pandemic deGrom has thrown 68 (pandemic season in which he didn’t miss a start), 92, and 82.2 innings the last three years. The injuries were pretty serious arm injuries too. We’re not talking about strained hamstrings here. Similar to Severino, I wonder if deGrom should be considered a 100-120 innings pitcher moving forward. Those 100-120 innings will be great, but anything more than that is a bonus. The recent injury history is scary.

Verlander’s return from Tommy John surgery as a 39-year-old went as well as anyone could have hoped. He pitched at a Cy Young level and had no additional arm trouble, and while he appeared to run out of gas in the World Series, he’s hardly alone there (Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler looked gassed too). deGrom’s recent injuries are more worrisome. It’s been four years now since we last saw him hold up for a full 162-game season.

Contract projections

Astros owner Jim Crane spilled the beans recently and said Verlander is looking for a Scherzer contract, meaning a three-year deal with a very high annual salary (Scherzer’s contract is worth a record $43.3M per year). It has been speculated deGrom wants a similar contract. Scherzer signed his deal going into his age 37 season. I think deGrom and Verlander wanting a Scherzer contract is completely reasonable given their statuses.

Here, for argument’s sake, are the various contract projections:

Even with the injuries the last two years, yeah, I can buy deGrom beating Scherzer’s average annual value record, especially if he returns to the Mets. “I’m the beloved homegrown star and you’re not going to pay me more per year than the guy you signed as a mercenary?” That kinda thing. (I think Judge beats Cole’s annual salary for a similar reason if he returns to the Yankees.)

I don’t think deGrom will have trouble getting three years and a bidding war (how desperate are the Mets to keep him and the Rangers to get an ace?) could land him a fourth year, even if it’s only some kinda option. Verlander is still outstanding but gosh, I have a hard time believing a soon-to-be 40-year-old will get three guaranteed years. That feels like a stretch. Given his age, Verlander may give you a better chance at a creative contract, such as:

• 2023: $40M salary
• 2024: $40M salary
• 2025: $20M player option with $10M buyout

Because the buyout is at least half the player option salary, it counts as a guaranteed year for luxury tax purposes. For all intents and purposes that’s a two-year, $90M contract with a $10M insurance policy. For luxury tax purposes it’s a three-year, $90M contract, slashing the luxury tax hit from $45M to $30M. Would Verlander go for that? I dunno, but it feels like something he would be more open to than deGrom at this point in their careers.

deGrom opted out of the final season of his team friendly extension (a team friendly extension that paid him well) and we can safely assume he’s looking for the largest contract possible and also a chance to win a World Series in the near future, maybe in that order. He hasn’t won a World Series yet and while he’s made a ton of money, he hasn’t yet secured a monster payday like so many of his contemporaries.

Verlander’s motivations aren’t as clear. He’s accomplished everything a player could dream of accomplishing in this game. Cy Youngs, an MVP, multiple World Series rings, soon to be the highest paid pitcher in history, first ballot Hall of Fame credentials, etc. Verlander could retire tomorrow and feel great about his career, and cruise into the Hall of Fame when he's eligible in five years.

So what’s Verlander looking for now? Another ring even if it means taking a little less money? A pure cash grab with no regard for title chances? Something else? Maybe Verlander wants to pad his legacy and finds coming to New York to help the Yankees get over the hump and win a World Series appealing. Landing Verlander could be as easy as offering the largest contract. At the same time, seeing him take $10M less a year to join the Dodgers because he thinks they give him a better chance to win wouldn’t surprise me even a tiny bit.

There’s a secondary component to this too: deGrom rejected the qualifying offer. Verlander was ineligible to receive one because he received one last offseason. That means deGrom is tied to free agent compensation and Verlander is not, and for the Yankees, and means surrendering their second and fifth highest 2024 draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money in 2024.

I think teams worry about free agent compensation a little too much. When you’re trying to win a World Series and you’re pursuing a top flight free agent, who cares about some draft picks? Get the star. That said, when you’re choosing between two guys like deGrom and Verlander, who are both very appealing and equal or close to it, yeah, free agent compensation can be a tiebreaker. One high-priced ace costs draft picks. The other doesn’t.

Other stuff

We know this much: Verlander has someone who will vouch for him in the clubhouse in Cole. They are close friends and I’m certain Cole would lobby Verlander if the Yankees ask him to aid their pursuit. As far as I know the Yankees don’t have anyone especially close to deGrom on the roster. I’m sure there’s mutual respect and deGrom would listen if Cole reached out, but it’s not like they’re buddy-buddy the way Cole and Verlander are (again, as far as I know).

As for deGrom already proving himself in New York, I don’t care about that too much. I don’t think you can have Verlander’s career without being able to excel in pressure situations. We’ve seen him come into Yankee Stadium and shut the Yankees down plenty of times. Yeah, wearing pinstripes is different, but I think Verlander would be fine. We’ve seen deGrom excel in New York. I think Verlander would do the same if given the opportunity.

Is the fan base a dealbreaker? Based on boos at Yankee Stadium, I’d rank recent Yankees villains like so:

1. David Ortiz
2. Jose Altuve
3. Justin Verlander

Verlander is not popular in the Bronx. BUT! But if he performs well in pinstripes and helps the Yankees win a World Series, Yankees fans will love him. And if not, they’ll just hate him more. As a fan though, yeah, I can buy it being easier to root for deGrom than Verlander given the history.

I don’t think the Yankees will factor the fans into their decision. Johnny Damon hit one of the most devastating home runs against the Yankees ever, and they still signed him. Seeing how the Yankees pursued Verlander last year, I don’t think they care much about how fans feel about him.

* * *

FanGraphs estimates the luxury tax payroll at $222.2M. The Yankees have spent up to the third penalty threshold (the penalty tier that pushes their first round pick back 10 spots) several times in the past, including in 2022, but they’ve never gone over it. If we assume that will again be the case in 2023, the Yankees have about $50M in spending room under that $273M third threshold.

Judge might eat up $40M of that $50M. To afford Judge and deGrom or Verlander (and a left fielder and other stuff), they would need to up payroll over $300M and/or somehow unload Josh Donaldson’s and Aaron Hicks’ contracts. I can’t say I’m optimistic they will do either of those things. Judge and deGrom/Verlander feels like an either/or situation, not an and situation.

But, since we’ve already gone through the hassle of comparing deGrom and Verlander, let’s vote on ‘em. They’re both excellent, but Verlander is significantly older while deGrom has the scarier recent injury history and probably will command a larger contract (not to mention require free agent compensation). Which one would you prefer the Yankees sign?