November 29th, 2022: Judge, Gallo, Smith, Nimmo, Torres, Carpenter, YES

The long holiday weekend is over and I’m already out of leftovers. I am sad. I didn’t miss anything important by skipping Friday’s post, so I feel less guilty, though early 2023 ZiPS projections are out. The projected AL East standings:

This is a good snapshot of where each team stands before the offseason really gets going, and considering who went out into free agency, yeah I can buy the Yankees being the division’s third best team right now. An Aaron Judge re-signing will fix that right up. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Latest hot stove rumors. Unless you count the Pirates signing Carlos Santana and the Astros signing Jose Abreu, it was a slow Thanksgiving weekend in the hot stove league. I thought (hoped) things would pick up after the non-tender deadline, but nope. Maybe everyone is waiting for the Winter Meetings next week. Anyway, here are a few hot stove nuggets I want to discuss.

Judge met with Giants

I neglected to mention this last week: Aaron Judge met with the Giants last Tuesday. He met with all their baseball people plus members of their ownership group, and the Giants got Steph Curry involved as well. The Yankees are gonna have to get Jalen Brunson on the line, I guess. Jon Morosi speculated San Francisco would make an offer soon after Thanksgiving and said Judge could sign during the Winter Meetings. I guess we’ll find out in the next 7-10 days.

Judge grew up rooting for the Giants – he said he stayed up late to watch Barry Bonds when he was a kid several times as chased Roger Maris this year – and he did grow up nearby*, though the hometown angle is always overplayed. Nine times a player has signed a $240M+ contract as a free agent. Look where they signed and their hometowns:

1. Bryce Harper, Phillies ($330M): Grew up in Las Vegas
2. Corey Seager, Rangers ($325M): Grew up in Charlotte
3. Gerrit Cole, Yankees ($324M): Grew up in Orange County
4. Manny Machado, Padres ($300M): Grew up in Miami
5. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees ($275M): Grew up in Miami
6. Alex Rodriguez, Rangers ($252M): Grew up in Miami
7. Anthony Rendon, Angels ($245M): Grew up in Houston
8. Albert Pujols, Angels ($240M): Grew up in the Dominican Republic and Kansas City
9. Robinson Cano, Mariners ($240M): Grew up in the Dominican Republic

Again, these are free agent signings only (no extensions). Deals in which the player was free to sign anywhere he wanted. Seager signed closest to home and he’s 1,000 miles away. Some of these guys couldn’t have signed any farther away from home! The Dodgers and Giants pursued Harper. The Angels and Dodgers were all over Cole. The Rangers tried for Rendon. The Marlins were in on Pujols. They had opportunities to sign close to home and passed.

And yet the hometown angle persists. It’s an easy thing to talk and write about (I’m guilty of it), but it doesn’t seem to matter much. Money, the team’s ability to compete, and money are the driving factors. And also money. Judge very well might leave the Yankees to sign with the Giants, and if he does, it will be because of the money and how he feels about their potential to win a World Series in the near future. Growing up nearby* will only be a small consideration.

* Judge grew up in Linden, which is inland and not in the Bay Area. It’s about 95 miles away from San Francisco. It’s as close to San Francisco as Philadelphia is to New York. Also, Judge lives in Tampa now and has for several years. If anything the Rays are his “hometown” team.

As far as we know Judge has only met with the Giants and (technically) the Yankees so far this offseason. No word on whether he has other meetings planned (I would try to sit down with the Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox, but it takes two to tango). The rest of the market is moving slowly. We haven’t heard anything about the Cubs meeting with Carlos Correa, the Phillies meeting with Trea Turner, the Rangers meeting with Jacob deGrom, etc. Been a quiet offseason for them.

It feels like the market is waiting on Judge. Take Correa for example. Unless he gets his asking price now, why wouldn’t he wait to see whether the team that misses out on Judge (Giants or Yankees or whoever) turns around and throws all that money at him? Same with Turner. I don’t think Judge is in a rush to sign but I also think everyone is waiting for him to set the market.

I would like this to be over sooner rather than later, mostly so the Yankees could move on with the rest of their offseason business as quickly as possible (with or without Judge). I don’t want this to drag into January and the Yankees miss out on a bunch of other stuff because they're waiting for Judge to make a decision. Hopefully it happens at the Winter Meetings next week or soon thereafter, and hopefully he returns to the Yankees (I think he does).

Yankees, Mariners, Phillies talked three-team trade

Here’s a fun one: Ryan Divish reports the Yankees discussed a three-team trade with the Phillies and Mariners that would have sent Marco Gonzalez to Philadelphia and Joey Gallo to Seattle at the deadline. It’s unclear what the Yankees would have received, though I assume it would have been a prospect(s) given Gallo’s trade value and what he was eventually traded for.

The trade didn’t come together (duh) and the Phillies pivoted to Noah Syndergaard. The two players who went to the Angels in the Syndergaard trade – former No. 1 pick Mickey Moniak and Single-A outfielder Jadiel Sanchez – could have interested the Yankees, but who really knows? The Mariners picked up Jake Lamb to be their extra lefty bat instead of Gallo.

Moniak is a name and a lefty bat, but he’s never hit (career 101 wRC+ in the minors) and is seen as a fourth outfielder type. You have to really believe in him as a change of scenery candidate for Moniak to make sense for the Yankees. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs ranked Sanchez over Moniak at the time of the trade, and they have Clayton Beeter, the pitcher the Yankees received in the Gallo trade, well ahead of Sanchez on their combined Angels/Yankees prospect rankings.

I know you’re supposed to take the best talent and figure out how all the pieces fit later, but that is overly simplistic, and I think Beeter tells us a little bit about the Yankees’ priorities with the Gallo trade. I think they were looking for a player(s) who fit this criteria in return:

• A pitcher to help replace all the pitching depth they traded away at the deadline (Luis Medina, JP Sears, TJ Sikkema, Ken Waldichuk, Hayden Wesneski, etc.).
• A bat-misser above Single-A with at least a chance to start. A guy who could be a big league option sometime next summer and not three years down the road.
• Someone not on the 40-man roster and still a full year away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility. They didn’t want to clog up the roster in August or over the winter.

The only Phillies prospect to check all those boxes is righty Griff McGarry, a top 100 prospect, and no way was he on the table in a trade that would’ve netted a back-end guy like Gonzales. The Yankees could have targeted other prospects, sure, but Beeter fit very well. He replenished depth, added upside at the upper levels, and did not tie up a 40-man roster spot.

Gonzales is definitely still available and the Phillies need a starter with Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Gibson all free agents. Perhaps they’ll rekindle their talks with the Mariners? But unless the Mariners consider Estevan Florial or Aaron Hicks a solution to their left field problem, I don’t see the Yankees getting involved again. Fun rumor though, and Beeter’s a good enough prospect that I don’t feel the need to waste more brain power wondering what could have been.

Rangers getting calls on Duran and Smith

According to Evan Grant (subs. req’d), Rangers infielders Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith are drawing trade interest. The Yankees sent both to Texas in the Gallo trade and they both made their MLB debuts in 2022. Duran, 23, hit .236/.277/.365 (82 wRC+) in 220 plate appearances. The 25-year-old Smith hit .197/.307/.249 (68 wRC+) in 253 plate appearances.

The Rangers are set all around the infield for the foreseeable future (Nate Lowe at first, Marcus Semien at second, Corey Seager at short, Josh Jung at third) so it only makes sense to dangle Duran and Smith, and see whether they can help land an outfielder or pitching. Those two became obvious trade candidates as soon as Texas signed Seager and Semien.

I have no idea whether the Yankees checked in with Texas but, in theory, Smith would address a few organizational needs. To wit:

• He’s a high contact lefty bat who posted strong swinging strike (8.3%) and chase (21.3%) rates in his brief MLB stint. The plate discipline and contact ability (and 19.8% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate as a rookie) match the scouting reports from his prospect days.
• The average exit velocity (87.0 mph) was below league average but Smith’s top 10% exit velocity, a number that better correlates to power potential, was very good at 101.8 mph. Again, the top-end hard-hit ability matches the prospect scouting reports.
• Smith owns a career 38.9% ground ball rate in the minors and it was 33.7% in the big leagues. He works good at-bats, doesn’t swing and miss much, hits the ball in the air often, and really drives it when he gets into one. That’s a good starter kit on offense.
• He’s played the three non-first base infield positions as well as left field and has looked natural at every spot, similar to Oswaldo Cabrera. Smith has long been regarded as a very smart, very instinctual player, and he has all six years of team control remaining.

Duran is a righty hitter who has always been a brutal force masher limited to the non-shortstop infield positions. Smith’s game is more well-rounded and a better fit for what the Yankees need given the left-handedness, the contact ability, and the defense and athleticism. With no more infield shifts, range is at a premium, and Smith provides it wherever he plays.

The Yankees have two high-end middle infield prospects in Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe, but a) prospects are suspects until proven otherwise, b) both are righty hitters, c) third base is open long-term, and d) the Yankees need a youth infusion. The more the merrier. Smith’s skill set is LeMahieuian*. Lots of contact that is harder than you expect and a good glove wherever you put him. It wouldn’t be difficult for Peraza and Smith and Volpe to coexist on the same roster.

* A better comp is Jake Cronenworth, a similar high-contact lefty with sneaky pop, good defense all around the infield, and baseball smarts. You’re not gonna pry the real Cronenworth away from the Padres. Smith is a chance at the next Cronenworth.

What do the Rangers want in return? I’m not entirely sure, though pitching is said to be their top priority this offseason, with outfield help secondary. I’m gonna throw a basic trade concept out there:

I would not trade Frankie Montas for Smith straight up. Two weeks ago I noted the going rate for one year of a quality starting pitcher is one MLB-ready prospect plus a second prospect, and I would take Smith as the MLB-ready piece. One for one, Montas for Smith, is a no. But Montas for Smith and a second prospect is trade framework I could get behind.

Also, this is not a “Montas stunk after the trade and the Yankees have to dump him!” thing. It’s a “the Rangers want pitching and I don’t think Domingo German or Clarke Schmidt will get it done” thing. Texas has seen the best of Montas during his time as an AL West rival and he wouldn’t come with a big long-term commitment. Their hypothetical rotation depth chart:

1. RHP Jon Gray
2. LHP Martin Perez (free agent after 2023)
3. RHP Frankie Montas (free agent after 2023)
4. RHP Jake Odorizzi (free agent after 2023)
5. RHP Dane Dunning (4.48 ERA and 4.23 FIP in 271 IP from 2021-22)
6. RHP Glenn Otto (5.32 ERA and 4.91 FIP in 159 IP from 2021-22) (also part of Gallo trade)

The Rangers are rumored to be hot after Jacob deGrom and there’s still plenty of room for him in that rotation, especially since Odorizzi has averaged 4.6 innings per start the last two years and would be best used as a one time through the order multi-inning reliever. Trade for Montas, sign deGrom, make a run at a postseason spot in 2023, then get a draft pick for Montas after the season. Boom.

As for the Yankees, they could sign a starter to replace Montas (Chris Bassitt? Jameson Taillon reunion? go big with Justin Verlander?), but they couldn’t sign a player like Smith. Cheap young lefty hitters who make a lot of contact and have good defensive chops are worth pursuing. The tabloids would have a field day with the Yankees “giving up” on Montas to reacquire a player they parted with to get Gallo, who stunk out loud in pinstripes, but who cares? If you believe a move makes you better, make it.

Anyway, Montas for Smith+ is just my dumb idea, not a rumor that has been reported. Bottom line, Smith is kinda sorta blocked with the Rangers (not really since he can be a super utility guy) and the Yankees have a need for his skill set. I don’t know what Texas wants in return and I don’t know whether the Yankees will check in, but I hope they do. Smith is at least worth a phone call.

(The Yankees traded Smith to get Gallo and it can be easy to think they moved him because they don’t like him and didn’t consider him one of their better prospects, but I never got that sense. I know they really love Gallo’s raw ability, and I think they saw Smith as the cost of doing business, not a “we need to move this guy because he’s not going to be good” prospect.)

Miscellany

Jon Heyman went for the easy clicks (then again, I’m linking to him, so who’s the sucker here?) and noted the Yankees have been in touch with Taillon, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, and Trea Turner, and have checked in with the Marlins about Pablo Lopez. The Yankees should get all of them. Re-sign Judge, trade Gleyber Torres for Lopez, and roll with this lineup …

1. 2B Trea Turner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. SS Carlos Correa
4. 1B Anthony Rizzo
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. 3B Xander Bogaerts
7. CF Harrison Bader
8. LF Oswaldo Cabrera
9. C Jose Trevino

… and a seven-man rotation (Lopez, Rodon, Senga, Taillon, Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino). See how easy that is? Do it, Hal. In all seriousness, I totally buy the Yankees checking in on all these players. They check in on everyone, and I assume their interest in the position players is dependent on Judge. If he returns, the Yankees are out on the other guys. If he leaves, the Yankees will pivot to them. Maybe – maybe – they’re serious about the starters regardless of Judge. Anyway, this is your “the Yankees have asked about these guys” update … And finally, if you’re hoping for another Manny Banuelos reunion, forget it. Sung Min Kim passes along word Banuelos is working toward a deal with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan, where he would be Masahiro Tanaka’s teammate. Banuelos pitched in Taiwan in 2020 and 2021, so he’s played overseas before. Charlie Barnes, who has allowed 27 runs in 38 career big league innings, just got a $1.2M salary in Korea, so I imagine Banuelos has a seven-figure payday coming. Good for him. That’s more than he would get as a Triple-A depth arm. At some point this winter the Yankees will sign a journeyman Triple-A innings guy. Every team does every offseason (last offseason it was Ryan Weber). Now we know it won’t be Banuelos. Tanaka and Banuelos, teammates and presumably rotationmates. What could have been, eh?

2. Scouting the Free Agent Market: Brandon Nimmo. The Yankees need two corner outfielders this offseason. Aaron Judge’s decision will influence left field. Re-sign Judge to play right and it’s less likely the Yankees spend significantly to fill left. If Judge leaves, then all bets are off. The Yankees could go in any direction and nothing would surprise me.

The consensus second best free agent outfielder available this winter is Mets stalwart Brandon Nimmo. Here, for posterity, are the best unsigned free agent outfielders by projected 2023 WAR:

1. Aaron Judge: +6.8
2. Brandon Nimmo: +4.7
3. Andrew Benintendi: +2.3
4. Mitch Haniger: +2.1
5. Cody Bellinger: +1.7 (six players are in the +1.5 to +1.7 range)

It’s Judge (big gap) Nimmo (big gap) everyone else. And if you’re looking for an everyday center fielder, forget it. It’s Nimmo, then Bellinger, then Kevin Kiermaier (projected +1.1 WAR). Several teams have been connected to Nimmo already this offseason, including the Yankees, though I get the sense it is due diligence more than genuine interest. At least right now.

“There are a lot of teams in the free agent market that are in the waters for a center fielder. Whoever Pixar guy will be the lucky one to Finding Nimmo,” Scott Boras, Nimmo’s agent and a bad pun aficionado, told Mike Puma at the GM Meetings. “... There are no center fielders in our game that are available. And then you add leadoff to that and then you add on-base percentage to that, and he’s an excellent defender, and then also he can play in New York. When you have those elements that are there, he becomes a very integral part of what we found for a team to win 100 games. He’s a very proven commodity and there are very few that can replace him.”

Nimmo turns 30 in March and he’s a very good player who has teetered on the border of being truly great throughout his career. He ranked eighth among outfielders in WAR this past season and also eighth among outfielders in WAR since 2017, his first full MLB season. Perhaps I’m underrating Nimmo and being the game’s eighth best outfielder over a six-year span qualifies as great. I dunno.

Anyway, with the Yankees needing outfield help and Judge leaving a possibility (I think he re-signs but the chances Judge leaves definitely aren’t 0%), is Nimmo a fit? Well, I mean yeah, he’s really good. Let’s dig into his game a little bit to see exactly how well he fits though.

Background

Nimmo was the No. 13 pick in the 2011 draft but he wasn’t a typical first round pick as a kid from a warm weather state with a long scouting dossier. He grew up in Cheyenne, Wyoming. There is no high school baseball in Wyoming. Teams had to scout his American Legion games and rely on looks during showcase events the previous summer.

(Nimmo is the highest drafted Wyomingite ever and he’s the only player to be drafted out of a Wyoming high school. There have been only 16 Wyoming-born players in MLB history. I’d say Tom Browning, who threw a perfect game in 1988, is the most famous of the 16, though Nimmo could overtake him and should become the state’s all-time WAR leader within a year or two.)

As you’d expect given the atypical background, Nimmo was quite raw when he first entered pro ball, but he proved to be a quick learner, and he reached the big leagues in 2016. Nimmo had a .379 OBP in his first full season in 2017 and ran a .404 OBP at age 25 in 2019. There is no arguing the slash lines. Nimmo can hit:

No worse than a 115 wRC+ since becoming a regular in 2017 and a career .269/.385/.441 (134 wRC+) line in close to 2,400 plate appearances. Not a ton of power (16 home runs per 600 plate appearances in his career) and not many steals, but Nimmo gets on base a ton and has hit for a good average throughout this career. The guy can really hit.

Offense

Like I said, Nimmo can really hit. No more to discuss.

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Okay fine, let’s discuss Nimmo’s bat more. Nimmo is a lefty swinger who, as you can see in the table above, has posted very high walk rates and single-digit swinging strike rates throughout his career. He’s cut down on his strikeout rate the last few years and a good chunk of his strikeouts nowadays come on called strike threes. See as many pitches and work as many deep counts as Nimmo and yeah, you’re going to get rung up now and then. That’s baseball.

The Yankees have a specific need for lefty bats who make contact and Nimmo is that. Over the last two seasons his contact rates are almost identical to Benintendi’s and Freddie Freeman’s, and he sees roughly the same number of pitches per plate appearances as Judge. As an added bonus, Nimmo doesn’t need a platoon partner. He can more than hold his own against lefties:

2021-22 vs. RHP: .282/.378/.441 (137 wRC+) with 17.2 K% in 705 PA
2021-22 vs. LHP: .278/.382/.418 (133 wRC+) with 20.9 K% in 354 PA

Career vs. RHP: .272/.391/.455 (138 wRC+) with 21.1 K% in 1,695 PA
Career vs. LHP: .261/.371/.409 (124 wRC+) with 25.4 K% in 673 PA

The Mets sheltered Nimmo against tough lefties early in his career. It wasn’t until the last three years (one being the pandemic season) that they really turned him loose against southpaws, and he’s answered the bell. No need to platoon Nimmo or drop him in the lineup against Chris Sale or Shane McClanahan, or pinch-hit when Cionel Perez comes out of the bullpen.

Nimmo is closer to average than elite in the exit velocity and hard contact department. To use a familiar name, Nimmo’s 2022 contact quality closely aligns with Gleyber Torres’ in terms of average exit velocity, top 10% exit velocity, and barrel rate. That’s 2021 Torres. Not 2022 Torres, who rebounded significantly in those categories. Nimmo isn’t a hard contact guy.

That isn’t to say the Yankees should steer clear of Nimmo because he won’t light up Statcast. Plenty of great hitters are underwhelming exit velocity guys (Luis Arraez, Jeff McNeil, etc.). It puts a ceiling on Nimmo’s power output though. His career high is 17 homers in 2018 and he’s not a big doubles guy either. He had a career best 30 doubles in 2022 and has averaged 27 doubles per 600 plate appearances in his career. Nimmo’s .154 ISO the last two years is league average.

As a lefty hitter, we would expect Nimmo to get some help from the short porch (would-be fly out landing the first row, etc.), but his hitting style is not conducive to short porch taters like Anthony Rizzo’s. Nimmo is an all-fields hitter and has been his entire career, and he puts close to 50% of his batted balls on the ground. Here is his 2021-22 spray chart overlaid on Yankee Stadium:

Nimmo’s over-the-fence power is exclusively to the pull field, and when he runs into a pitch, he’ll hit it a long way. When he doesn’t, he’s more apt to serve it to left field or up the middle, or just hit the ball on the ground. And because he uses the entire field, Nimmo saw the shift in only 15.3% of his plate appearances in 2022. That is way, way below the 55.0% average for lefty hitters. I wouldn’t anticipate a big batting average boost with the anti-shift rules next year.

One area Nimmo won’t help the Yankees much is against top velocity. The Astros and to a lesser extent the Rays continually shut the Yankees down because their pitching staffs are built around huge velocity, and because they pitch effectively with it upstairs. Everyone has trouble with elevated heaters, there’s a reason they’re so popular nowadays, and the Yankees have a few individual hitters who are especially vulnerable.

Against 95+ mph fastballs Nimmo hit .261 with a .394 SLG (.314 xwOBA) and a 16.2% whiff rate the last two seasons. The MLB averages against 95+ mph heaters are a .238 AVG and .377 SLG (.314 xwOBA) with a 23.1% whiff rate. Nimmo is better than average against big velocity, though he has a hole in his swing at the top of the zone:

The darker the red, the more Nimmo has whiffed against pitches in that location (again, this is against 95+ mph fastballs only). Nimmo is disciplined enough that he won’t chase fastballs way up and above the zone, but locate a heater at the letters and yeah, he’ll swing through it. He’s not necessarily someone who will help close that weakness the Yankees can exhibit against high fastballs. He’s vulnerable against them as much as anyone.

For all intents and purposes Nimmo is a singles and walks hitter who will work long at-bats and won’t swing and miss much. Power isn’t his game. Walks play anywhere, though Nimmo is the kinda hitter who benefits from a big outfield because it gives all those batted balls room to fall in. Yankee Stadium is, and has been throughout its history, the one of the worst singles parks in the game. The smaller than average outfield allows defenders to play shallow and steal away bloops and low line drives.

I could see Nimmo getting to 20 homers in Yankee Stadium, particularly if he makes an effort to pull the ball more. Brett Gardner’s career high was eight home runs heading into his age 30 season, then he cobbled together seasons of 17, 16, 21, and 28 homers within the next six years. You don’t have to completely abandon who you are as a hitter to use the short porch, and I believe Nimmo is a talented enough and disciplined enough hitter to make that adjustment. And if Yankee Stadium takes away singles, making that adjustment becomes much more vital.

The upside here is a high on-base hitter – we’re legit talking .400 OBPs – who gets to 20+ home runs in the Bronx and doesn’t strike out excessively. The downside is something closer to a .350 OBP and maybe 10 homers, which isn’t that bad. Plate discipline is an old player skill and that’s not meant to be derogatory. It’s a skill that ages well and tends to keep players in the league a long time, and Nimmo has it.

Baserunning

Nimmo is both fast and a bad baserunner. Well, no, bad isn’t entirely fair. He’s bad at stealing bases and generally okay at the other aspects of baserunning. Here are Nimmo’s baserunning numbers the last two seasons:

• Stolen bases: 8-for-14 (57%)
• FanGraphs baserunning: -1.2 runs
• Baseball Prospectus baserunning: +2.5 runs
• Extra-base taken rate: 43% (MLB average is 41%)
• Home-to-first time: 4.19 seconds (MLB average is 4.41 seconds for a lefty batter)
• Sprint speed: 28.8 feet per second (MLB average is 27.0 feet per second)

That 43% extra-base taken rate from 2021-22 is a bit deceptive because it was 50% in 2021 and 39% in 2022. In fact, look at Nimmo’s extra-base taken rate from 2017-22: 50%, 55%, 52%, 52%, 50%, 39%. It fell off a cliff this season. Huh. As for stealing bases, Nimmo does not do it often, and when he does attempt to steal, he is horribly inefficient. A 57% success rate is awful (it's 62% for his career).

Interestingly enough, Nimmo has admitted he doesn’t steal many bases because he’s trying to avoid injury, and also because he doesn’t want to risk it given the guys behind him in the lineup. Here’s what Nimmo told Tim Healey in September:

“My goal this year has been to be on the field every day to help the guys try and win in whatever way I can,” said Nimmo, who has done that in his last season before reaching free agency.

“Now, I do know that stolen bases are a part of that. But with the guys that I have hitting behind me, I can score from first base. So it’s just not quite as important. But I do know it helps every hitter to get out of a double-play situation.

“So there’s been give-and- take on that on just how does my body feel, how are the legs doing, how are the guys behind me swinging it? .  .  . I don’t want to take the bat out of their hand as far as trying to get another RBI if they hit a double. It’s been trying to assess that risk-reward.”

The Mets batted Nimmo, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso atop the lineup in that order just about all season, and Lindor was the worst hitter of the bunch at .270/.339/.449 (127 wRC+). Nimmo not pushing the envelope with stolen bases and simply letting those three guys behind him hit with as many men on base as possible makes sense, no?

(I feel the same way about Judge. Don’t try to steal when he’s at the plate. Just let him hit with ducks on the pond.)

Perhaps that also applies to the drastic decline in Nimmo’s extra-base taken rate? He didn’t go first-to-third as often because he didn’t want to risk making an out on the bases with those big bats behind him? I can buy it. As far as we know Nimmo did not have a lower body injury this season, so that doesn’t explain it. Maybe he just opted to be conservative on the bases.

Nimmo is speedy, the measurables confirm it, but he is not much of a baserunning weapon. He won’t change the game with his legs the way Jacoby Ellsbury did (Ellsbury was bad as a Yankee overall but that dude was dynamic on the bases with his speed and fearlessness). And as he gets older, Nimmo will slow down like everyone else. If the extra-base taken rate ticks up next season, great. Otherwise Nimmo is not impactful on the bases despite his speed.

(This kinda ties into the speed thing: Nimmo plays all out, all the time. His tendency to run to first base after a walk or hit-by-pitch is eyewash, but he always hustles. Folks that like to complain about a player not running out a ground ball will have nothing to worry about here.)

Defense

Early on Nimmo looked destined to spend his career in left field because his reads and routes weren’t good. They got much better as he gained experience though, and his +9 OAA the last two seasons is comfortably above average. DRS is a bit more bearish (+1). The eye test tells me Nimmo is solid in center and occasionally spectacular.

Of course, the Yankees are set in center field with Harrison Bader. Nimmo has played a bunch of left field in his career though, and you need a quality defender in Yankee Stadium’s spacious left field. Also, Bader will be a free agent after 2023. The Yankees could, in theory, stick Nimmo in left field next season, then shift him back to center come 2024.

The risk with that plan is Nimmo will be 31 on Opening Day 2024 and center field is a young player’s position. Since 2015 only four players 31 and older have started at least 300 games in center, which isn’t even two full seasons worth of games:

1. Lorenzo Cain: 528
2. Jacoby Ellsbury: 334
3. Denard Span: 309
4. Adam Jones: 306
5. Jarrod Dyson: 298
6. Brett Gardner: 292

Cain, Ellsbury, and Jones had big contracts that kept them in center field (Jones also had a legacy thing going on with the Orioles), and Gardner had to play center in part because Ellsbury kept getting hurt. Whichever team signs Nimmo will likely do so with the understanding he will not be a center fielder much longer. That’s just the way the position ages.

Nimmo has played a good deal of left field (+7 DRS and +5 OAA) and right field (+2 DRS and +3 OAA) and the numbers like him better in the corners than they do in center. He’s speedy and he has range, and that speed and range play best in the corners. If the Yankees need to put Nimmo in center next year because Bader got hurt or something, or even in 2024 to replace Bader, he’d be fine. Long-term, I don’t think you want him there. He’ll age out of the position soon.

As for his throwing arm, it’s similar to his baserunning in that the measurables are good, but the results aren’t. Nimmo’s average competitive throw (i.e. the top 10% of his throws) this season was 88.1 mph, a tick below the 90.0 mph center field average. He did register several 95-96 mph throws though, so when he lines himself up and crow hops, Nimmo can really let it go.

Despite that, Nimmo’s hold rate (the rate at which runners did not take the extra base when the ball was hit his way) was only 36.8%, below the 44.7% league average. His hold rate has been below average throughout his career and at all three outfield spots. So his arm is strong and yet runners aren’t afraid to test him. Weird. He must take a long time to actually throw the ball, so the arm strength is good but the release is slow and his arm plays down.

(Nimmo has played almost 4,500 innings in the outfield and he’s thrown two runners out at the plate in his career. Oswaldo Cabrera has like 15 minutes of service time and he’s thrown four runners out at the plate. Huh.)

Nimmo’s defensive value is tied up in his speed and range, which plays better in the corners than it does in center, though it’s playable in center right now. He’s not going to shut the running game down with his arm the way Judge will, however. Nimmo is probably something like a true talent +5 defender in left right now, and you’d expect that to slip with age.

Injury history

You’ll find lots of “Judge is a big risk because he’s had a lot of injuries” commentary but not much about Nimmo, who’s also had a lot of injuries. I guess because Judge may land a contract three times as large as Nimmo’s? Well, whatever. Nimmo does have a lengthy injury history and, like Judge, it dates back to his time in the minors. The recap:

• 2015: Missed a month with a knee injury after stepping awkwardly on a base.
• 2016: Tore a tendon in his foot during an offseason workout (was ready for Opening Day).
• 2017: Missed two months with a hamstring strain and three weeks with a collapsed lung.
• 2019: Missed more than three months with a bulging disc in his neck.
• 2021: Missed two months with a torn ligament in his hand/finger.
• 2022: Played through a wrist sprain in May (and played well).

Hamstring pulls happen and tweaking your knee because you hit the bag awkwardly is a dumb bad luck baseball injury. Also, the collapsed lung sounds worse than it was. There was no play that caused it. Nimmo experienced shortness of breath, the Mets sent him for tests, they found the collapsed lung, and after some rest he was good as new.

The biggest concern is the bulging disc in Nimmo’s neck. He did not require surgery and it has given him no trouble since, but those suckers tend to flare back up. 2018 and the shortened 2020 season are the only years Nimmo didn’t have some kinda injury. There’s nothing chronic (that one specific issue that keeps popping up), but you kinda have to expect him to miss some time each season. Only twice in his five full non-pandemic seasons has Nimmo played 100 games.

Contract projections

Did you know only nine active outfielders have contracts worth $20M annually? The nine: Mike Trout ($35.4M), Mookie Betts ($30.4M), Kris Bryant ($26.4M), Bryce Harper ($25.4M), Giancarlo Stanton ($25M), George Springer ($25M), Christian Yelich ($23.9M), Jason Heyward ($23M), and Nick Castellanos ($20M). I would’ve guessed more. (Judge will join that group soon.)

Anyway, Nimmo should join the $20M a year club this offseason. He’s clearly a $100M player to me. The question is contract length and how that $100M+ will be distributed. Here are Nimmo’s various contract projections:

• Jim Bowden (subs. req’d): 5 years, $100M ($20M per year)
• ESPN: 5 years, $118M ($23.5M per year)
• FanGraphs: 5 years, $100M ($20M per year)
• MLBTR: 5 years, $110M ($22M per year)

The consensus is five years and that leads me to believe Nimmo will get a sixth year, especially as a Boras client. Boras always seems to find a desperate team willing to go the extra year. He is the best in the business for a reason. The guy talked the Tigers into moving Miguel Cabrera to third base so they could give Prince Fielder nine years. I mean, come on.

I could see Boras using Springer as a benchmark. Springer was a more accomplished player, but he hit free agency when he was a year older than Nimmo is now, and that extra peak year is valuable. The Blue Jays gave Springer six years at $25M a pop for $150M total. Maybe Nimmo doesn’t get quite that, but six years and $22M a year seems within reach, no?

(I’ve seen the Nimmo/Shin-Soo Choo comp thrown around lately because they’re both OBP heavy lefties, though the similarities end there. Choo had more power and stole more bases, and Nimmo was a way better defender. That said, Choo was also a Boras client, and Boras got him a seven-year deal entering his age 31 season. I could see Boras citing Choo as a reason Nimmo deserves seven years. I don’t think he’ll get it, but Boras is going to try.)

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Yep. The Yankees need outfielders and quality lefty bats who won’t swing and miss excessively, and that’s Nimmo. If Judge leaves, signing Nimmo would almost feel like a must, and you could easily argue the Yankees should sign Nimmo even if Judge returns. Yeah, payroll will be ugly in a few years, but it would maximize their World Series chances in the short-term. Dream with me:

1. LF Brandon Nimmo
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 3B DJ LeMahieu

That’s a very strong top five with a nice blend of contact and power, and that top four would put opposing pitchers through the grinder. We’d see a lot of 25-pitch first innings next year. Then you can have Gleyber Torres and Bader ambush unsuspecting pitchers lower in the order, break in a rookie shortstop, and you’re good to go. Nimmo looks good atop the lineup, and the Yankees know he won’t have any trouble playing in New York.

Nimmo is not without his drawbacks. He’s not going to hit for more than average power and he’s not going to do much on the bases. There’s an injury history too, and you’ll have to pay center field prices for a player who is unlikely to play center much longer given his age. I don’t think it’s crazy to believe there are better ways to spend $20M a year over the next 5-6 years.

I also think the on-base ability is elite, and that while Nimmo hasn’t shown much power yet, he’s capable of a 20-homer season or three before it’s all said and done. You’re getting good defense too. The Yankees specifically need a lefty with contact ability, so Nimmo’s skills have heightened value to them. I mean, he does have a career .441 SLG. This isn’t Isiah Kiner-Falefa pairing his excellent contact skills with a .327 SLG. There is some thump here.

I believe the Yankees are willing to give out one and only one long-term contract (I’m talking five or more years) this offseason, and they want to give it to Judge. Judge and Nimmo would shock me, so I essentially went through this exercise to examine Nimmo as a Judge alternative. He’s good and he’s the second best outfielder available. He’s not Judge though, and passing on Judge with the idea Nimmo provides more bang for the buck would be unwise.

3. Mining the news. Got a few quick Yankees-related tidbits I want to touch on, so let’s get to ‘em.

MLB finds no collusion with Judge

Surprise surprise, MLB has cleared Hal Steinbrenner and Mets owner Steve Cohen – two of Rob Manfred’s 30 bosses – of collusion regarding Aaron Judge, reports Sean Gregory. The MLBPA asked MLB to look into it after SNY reported the Mets would not pursue Judge to maintain Hal’s and Cohen’s strong working relationship.

The union did not file an official grievance and, if they did, they would have to prove Hal and Cohen damaged Judge’s market. That’s not impossible, just extremely difficult. I don’t believe they colluded (i.e. Cohen explicitly telling Hal he would not pursue Judge to limit his market), but I also don’t trust Manfred to investigate his bosses rigorously. Whatever. Nothing was ever going to come from this and now nothing has come from it, officially.

Torres will play winter ball

The Yankees have given Gleyber Torres permission to play winter ball back home in Venezuela. He’ll play for Leones del Caracas and will make his debut Tuesday. Torres participated in the Home Run Derby on Monday night (video). It was the 20th anniversary of the Venezuelan Winter League Home Run Derby and they managed to get some big names involved (Acuna won):

This will be Gleyber’s first time playing winter ball and apparently the Yankees okayed him for 12 games. I know 12 games sounds stingy, but that’s how it is with established big leaguers. They only play a week or two, not the full winter ball season, oftentimes because they live in the United States (Torres lives in Tampa) and only visit home for a few weeks each winter (the Braves approved Acuna for five winter ball games at DH only).

This rules may have changed in more recent Collective Bargaining Agreements, but as of 2013, players needed their organization’s approval to play winter ball if they met any of these conditions during the MLB season:

• 140 innings or 45 games pitched
• 552 plate appearances
• Finished the season on the injured list
• Spent 60 days on the injured list, including at least 15 in the final 60 days of the season
• Had major surgery within the last 18 months

If any of those apply, the player needs his team’s approval to play winter ball, otherwise he can just go. Torres had 572 plate appearances this year, so the Yankees had to okay him. With stuff like this, it can be easy to say the Yankees are showcasing Gleyber for a trade, but come on. No one is changing their evaluation of any player based on a dozen winter ball games.

About the only thing notable about Gleyber playing winter ball is the injury risk, particularly since he is a trade candidate and DJ LeMahieu’s foot situation is still uncertain, but we generally overrate position player injury risk. It’s only 12 games. He can just as easily hurt himself during an offseason workout as he can in a game. Hopefully Torres stays healthy and mashes. And if he stays healthy and goes 0-for-12 games, I won’t lose any sleep.

(I need to do a full winter ball/Arizona Fall League recap at some point. I’ll get to it soon.)

Pujols and Verlander named Comeback Players of the Year

No surprise here: Albert Pujols and Justin Verlander were named the 2022 Comeback Players of the Year. Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery and deservedly won the AL Cy Young. Pujols got released and had a .284 OBP in 2021, then bounced back to hit .270/.345/.550 (150 wRC+) with 24 homers in 2022. He also hit his 700th career homer.

I bring this up only to note three other American League players received Comeback Player of the Year votes: Mike Trout, who was limited to 36 games by a calf injury in 2021, Alex Bregman, who was limited to 91 games by a quad injury in 2021, and Matt Carpenter. Matt Carpenter! He started only 35 games (played 47 games total) and had only 154 plate appearances with the Yankees. It was enough to get Comeback Player of the Year votes. Neat.

The 30 MLB.com beat writers vote for Comeback Player of the Year and they don’t show us the individual ballots, but eh, who cares. I just wanted to mention Carpenter got votes despite so little playing time. The Comeback Player of the Year award has been around since 2005 and two Yankees have won it: Jason Giambi in 2005 and Mariano Rivera in 2013.

YES considering Jeter and Mattingly

According to Andrew Marchand, YES Network executives are considering Derek Jeter and Don Mattingly for the broadcast booth next season. They have not had any talks yet though. “We haven’t had any in-depth discussion with either. If they are a) available and b) interested, you probably at least have to have a conversation,” YES head honcho John Filippelli said.

Mattingly said he has something in the works – “I have something else burning fairly hot right now. Depends how that goes,” he told Marchand – and Jeter is viewed as a long shot. I think Derek would be good in the booth. He was a boring cliche machine as a player, but when he shows his personality, Jeter can be very funny and very insightful. That’s all I want from my broadcasters, funny and insightful. (Jeter’s Hall of Fame speech was quite good.)

Jack Curry, John Flaherty, Meredith Marakovits, and Paul O’Neill all have contracts that are up, so some turnover is possible. Marchand says Curry and Marakovits are wanted back and YES wants O’Neill in the booth, not broadcasting from his basement. Also, YES was pleased with Jeff Nelson’s fill-in work this summer. Nelson was good. I’d be cool with him on a regular basis. Not sure what the future holds for Carlos Beltran and Cameron Maybin though.

Even if it’s just Nelson taking on a larger workload, it sounds like there will be some changes to the YES roster next season. I would bet heavily against Jeter taking a broadcast job. Mattingly? Eh, maybe. He turns 62 in April and is getting to the age when people want to cut back on travel and take it easy, so maybe he does a few games on YES. Then again, Mattingly still hasn’t won a World Series. He might take a job somewhere to chase a ring.

Postseason shares announced

As a reward for getting swept in the ALCS, the Yankees split $12,901,301 in postseason pool money, according to Maury Brown. The total postseason pool is a record $107,510,840 this year. It’s a record because there are more postseason teams and more postseason games now. The total postseason pool is based on a percentage of gate revenue:

• 50% of all Wild Card Series games
• 60% of the first three games of each Division Series
• 60% of the first four games of each Championship Series
• 60% of the first four games of the World Series

The Astros split $38,703,903 and a full share was worth $516,347, easily the largest ever (the Braves held the previous record at $397,391 last year). The Yankees issued 72 full shares and 16.47 partial shares. Each full share is worth $145,820. Gerrit Cole probably won’t even notice the direct deposit, but it’s a big payday for young players and all the support staff. This is a good excuse to share Mike Piazza’s famous Rickey Henderson story about postseason shares:

“The Mets released Rickey in May 2000, which meant that he helped us to the playoffs in his only full season with the ball club (1999). He was instrumental in not only getting us there, but in how the playoff shares – the bonuses earned from MLB for each postseason series – were divided. The shares meeting is always an interesting exercise in human dynamics, sort of a microcosm of democracy. Rickey was the most generous guy I ever played with, and whenever the discussion came around to what we should give one of the fringe people – whether it was a minor leaguer who came up for a few days or the parking lot attendant – Rickey would shout out, 'Full share!' We'd argue for a while and he'd say, 'Fuck that! You can change somebody's life!' I admired Rickey's heart, but I usually came down somewhere in the middle."

The MLBPA has guidelines about postseason shares. Players who are on the MLB roster (active or injured list) on June 1st and stay on the MLB roster the rest of the season automatically receive full shares. That’s also the group of players who vote on how the postseason shares are distributed. Andrew Benintendi didn’t show up at the trade deadline and get to vote himself a full share, for example. A $145,820 bonus for losing the ALCS. Not bad work if you can get it.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)