November 16th, 2022: Rizzo, Vasquez, Ridings, Minor League Free Agents, Bullpen Market

I apologize for pushing Tuesday’s post back a day, but a) the Offseason Plan went live Monday, and b) I figured I’d wait a day so I could cover Tuesday’s various deadlines. That proved to be a good decision. Here is today’s post as we await Aaron Judge being named the AL MVP on Thursday.

1. Rizzo returns. Welcome back, Anthony Rizzo. The Yankees have signed Rizzo to a new two-year contract with a club option for a third year, the team announced Tuesday. It’s a done deal and official. Jack Curry has the financial terms:

• 2023: $17M salary ($20M luxury tax hit)
• 2024: $17M salary ($20M luxury tax hit)
• 2025: $17M club option with $6M buyout ($11M luxury tax hit if picked up, $0 if not)

Last week Rizzo opted out of his $16M salary for 2023 and wound up with an extra $24M and another guaranteed year. Not bad. I gave Rizzo two years and $36M as part of my Offseason Plan and he got a bit more in real life. The contract covers his age 33-34 seasons with a club option for his age 35 season. A contract so reasonable it’s almost boring.

Earlier this week Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported the Astros identified Rizzo as their No. 1 target at first base, and while it’s possible Rizzo’s camp was using them for leverage, I think Houston’s interest was sincere. Yuli Gurriel is 38 and just had his worst season, and Rizzo fits their preferred profile as a low strikeout hitter with power and good defense. It fit.

I admit I was a bit nervous about Rizzo leaving to join the Astros. Not because the Astros beat the Yankees in the postseason again and would give him a better chance to win the World Series. Nothing like that. I was nervous because owner Jim Crane is apparently handling all their negotiations since GM James Click was let go, and when owners negotiate contracts, it tends to go well for the player. Case in point: Rafael Montero got only $4.5M less than Tyler Anderson.

My fear was Crane would come in with a big offer (three years at $25M a year?) and either push the Yankees to a place where Rizzo’s contract would stand in the way of doing other things, or push them out of the running for Rizzo completely. Now I don’t have to worry about that. Rizzo is a Yankee and the two-year term limits the risk associated with his career-long back issues.

It’s fair to say re-signing Rizzo was priority No. 2 for the Yankees this offseason behind re-signing Aaron Judge. He fits their needs so well. They need the lefty bat, they need the power and the contact, and they need the vacuum glove over at first base. The free agent first base alternatives were not good (this is projected 2023 WAR):

1. Jose Abreu: +2.4 WAR (36 in January and another righty hitter)
2. Josh Bell: +1.8 WAR (poor defender)
3. Brandon Drury: +1.6 WAR (super utility guy, not a first baseman)
4. Trey Mancini: +0.9 WAR (yet another righty)
5. Brandon Belt: +0.9 WAR (might retire)

Rizzo’s back is a concern. There’s no way around it. There was also no way to bring him back without a second guaranteed year, and avoiding that third guaranteed year is good work by the Yankees. Hopefully he stays healthy and staves off age-related decline. If not, well, then the Yankees are in trouble. Rizzo was the best fit for the Yankees given their needs and his skill set, and I’m glad they worked out a new contract so quickly. One less thing to worry about.

2. Latest roster moves. The World Series ended 10 days ago and the early offseason deadlines keep coming. Here are the Yankees’ latest roster moves in addition to re-signing Anthony Rizzo.

Vasquez added to 40-man roster

The Yankees added one prospect to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection purposes prior to Tuesday’s deadline: RHP Randy Vasquez. They added RHP Jhony Brito and LHP Matt Krook last week as well. Those guys were due to become minor league free agents, so they had to be added a few days earlier. Those are the three Rule 5 Draft protection moves this year.

As part of my Rule 5 Draft preview last week, I called Vasquez the only lock to be protected, and the only player to be protected he is. None of the Yankees’ best prospects (SS Anthony Volpe, OF Jasson Dominguez, etc.) are Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason, so it was a lean year for protection. As far as who the Yankees left exposed, I’d rank them like this in terms of likelihood of sticking in the big leagues all next season (not that I'm confident any will stick):

1. RHP Zach Greene
2. RHP Mitch Spence
3. C Josh Breaux
4. RHP Matt Sauer
5. C Antonio Gomez
6. 3B Andres Chaparro
7. Everyone else

Greene and Spence are older guys with great pitch data and it’ll be easy to hide them in the back of the bullpen. Breaux is an all-or-nothing hitter with a good enough glove. Catching is so bad these days that I could see a team taking a shot on him. Sauer might be able to out-stuff big leaguers right now, but eh. Also, he finished the season on the injured list. Not sure what that’s about.

Gomez and Chaparro are longer shots to stick. Some team would have to do with Gomez what the Padres did with Luis Torrens a few years ago. They’d have to sit on him for a full season just to get the talent in the system. Chaparro has performed well in Double-A, but righty hitting first base/DH types aren’t hot commodities in the Rule 5 Draft (or anytime, for that matter).

The Yankees will have players taken in the Rule 5 Draft next month because they have players taken in the Rule 5 Draft every offseason. And like most offseasons, it is likely those players will make their way back to the Yankees. Yeah, they got burned by Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephen, but those two are the exception in the Rule 5 Draft, not the rule. Not a whole lot to see at this year’s protection deadline.

(I’m not sure the Yankees will make a Rule 5 Draft pick this year (probably not), but if they do, Mets OF Jake Mangum could be a target. The Yankees drafted him once upon a time (30th round in 2017) and he slashed .306/.363/.441 (118 wRC+) with a 17.9% strikeout rate between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. Mangum is an older prospect (27 in March), but he switch-hits, has a history of good contact rates, and is a very good defensive center fielder. Seems like a potential fourth outfielder. Kinda surprised the Mets left him exposed.)

Mets claim Ridings

As part of their offseason 40-man roster cleanup, the Yankees put Stephen Ridings on waivers, and the Mets claimed him, the team announced. The Long Island native gets to stay near home. Ridings, 27, missed most of 2022 with a shoulder injury that did not require surgery. He returned in September and threw only two minor league innings before the season ended.

The Mets won 101 games in 2022 and are fourth to last in the waiver order. Every team except the Dodgers, Astros, and Braves had a chance to claim Ridings before the Mets, but passed. He almost cleared. I am certain the Yankees explored the trade market, but minor league relievers coming off major injuries are a dime a dozen. Not exactly surprising no team was willing to give up something to get Ridings.

Anyway, Ridings was a revelation in 2021. The Yankees signed him as a minor league free agent, stuck him in the bullpen, then watched his fastball jump to 100 mph. The former substitute teacher made his MLB debut when the Yankees got slammed with a COVID outbreak that August and he struck out seven in five innings. Ridings also showcased an elite strikeout strut:

Ginger Dellin was a fun story, but the Yankees are deep in relievers (more on that in a bit), and he was not a great bet to stick on the 40-man all offseason. Whenever space is needed, the 27-year-old reliever with a short track record and coming off a major arm injury is going to be near the front of the line. The Yankees tried to sneak Ridings through waivers at the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, when 40-man rosters are at their fullest during the offseason. Didn’t work. So it goes.

So after all this, the Yankees still have two open 40-man roster spots. One is earmarked for Aaron Judge (or his replacement) and the other will get used soon enough. Salary dumping Josh Donaldson and/or Aaron Hicks would open more 40-man space. Albert Abreu, Estevan Florial, and Lucas Luetge are all out of minor league options and could be sent elsewhere whenever spots are needed.

Judge rejects qualifying offer

As expected, Judge rejected the $19.65M qualifying offer prior to Tuesday’s deadline. Technically Rizzo did as well. His new two-year contract was not official yet and he had to tender a decision before the deadline, so he rejected it. Here's the MLBPA's press release. Also, I thought the deadline was Sunday, but I guess not. Apparently MLB moved it up like the non-tender deadline, which is Friday.

Here are the 12 non-Yankees and their qualifying offer decisions:

• Accepted (2): Joc Pederson, Martin Perez
• Rejected (10): Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Xander Bogaerts, Willson Contreras, Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Rodon, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner

Anderson has already signed a three-year, $39M contract with the Angels, so we’re down to nine free agents the Yankees would have to pay a penalty to sign. Because of their luxury tax status, the Yankees will surrender their second and fifth highest draft picks, and $1M in international bonus money, to sign a qualified free agent. Will they sign one? Maybe!

In the event Judge leaves, the Yankees would only receive a compensation draft pick after the fourth round. It ain’t much. It’s not nothing, but it ain’t much. If nothing else, that at least takes away the “we want the draft pick to help rebuild the farm system” excuse. Anyway, the qualifying decisions are in, and there they are.

24 become minor league free agents

The Yankees added Brito, Krook, and RHP Jimmy Cordero to the 40-man roster to prevent them from becoming minor league free agents last week. Two dozen others were allowed to hit the open market.. Here’s the full list of minor league free agents and here are the Yankees:

• Catchers (4): Rob Brantly, Rodolfo Duran, Max McDowell, Saul Torres
• Infielders (6): Jake Bauers, Armando Alvarez, Derek Dietrich, Phillip Evans, Wilkerman Garcia, Chris Owings
• Outfielders (3): Michael Beltre, Ryan LaMarre, Blake Perkins
• Righties (11): Matt Bowman, Braden Bristo, Wellington Diaz, Tyler Duffey, Carlos Espinal, Shane Greene, Nolan Martinez, Reggie McClain, Jose Mujica, Emmanuel Ramirez, Richard Rodriguez
• Lefties (1): Chasen Shreve

That list is heavy on veteran journeymen who were brought in to fill out Triple-A Scranton’s roster either last offseason or during the season itself. Brantly and Greene each got into one big league game with the Yankees. Espinal got called up and spent one day with the Yankees while Scott Effross and Lou Trivino were traveling to join the team, though he didn’t appear in a game. But hey, even just one day in the big leagues comes with perks.

Among one-time prospects, Garcia is the most recognizable name, though he hasn’t actually played since 2019. Once upon a time he looked like a budding top prospect. It never came together. Torres was one of my Not Top 30 Prospects in 2018. He just didn’t hit. Martinez got $1.15M as a third round pick in 2016 and couldn’t stay healthy (119 career innings).

With Alvarez, Bristo, and Martinez becoming minor league free agents, only one player from the 2016 draft class remains in the organization: 18th rounder RHP Greg Weissert. It was a dud of a draft, though 1st rounder OF Blake Rutherford (big White Sox trade), 2nd rounder 2B Nick Solak and 12th rounder RHP Taylor Widener (Brandon Drury), 5th rounder OF Dom Thomson-Williams (James Paxton), and 27th rounder LHP Phil Diehl (Mike Tauchman) were useful trade chips.

The Yankees gave Bowman a rare two-year minor league contract in Dec. 2020, when he was relatively early in his Tommy John surgery rehab, and he never did make it back to the mound. He has not appeared in a game at any level since 2019. Brantly and McDowell keep making their way back to the Yankees. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them return in 2023.

3. Bullpen market taking shape. It is taking shape and it is pricey. Seven free agents have signed Major League contracts since the end of the World Series and four are relievers. The other three: Anthony Rizzo, Clayton Kershaw, and Jose Urena. They all returned to their former teams. Here are the four reliever contracts:

• Edwin Diaz, Mets: 5 years and $102M
• Robert Suarez, Padres: 5 years and $46M
• Rafael Montero, Astros: 3 years and $34.5M
• Nick Anderson, Braves: 1 year and $875,000

Anderson has had a bunch of arm injuries and made only six MLB appearances the last two years (none in 2022). His contract reflects his status as a lottery ticket. Otherwise Diaz set new reliever records for total value ($102M) and average annual salary ($20.4M). Montero is currently the fifth highest paid reliever in baseball. Suarez got that contract despite having just one – one! – MLB season under his belt!

Teams paid through the nose for relievers in the early 2000s (remember Scott Linebrink? Steve Karsay?), then after a bunch of those deals blew up, spending on relievers went down. They’re too volatile to pay big. The “smart” way to build a bullpen became hoarding as many quality arms as possible, then shuttling them in and out until you found the right mix. I wouldn’t say those days are over, but teams are clearly okay paying top dollar for relievers again.

I think there are three reasons for this. One, ball tracking data allows teams to make more informed decisions. They know everything about these guys now and are more comfortable projecting future performance. Two, starters don’t pitch deep into games all that often these days, making relievers that much more important. And three, free agent spending increases the year after a new Collective Bargaining Agreement takes effect, historically.

Whatever the reasons, relievers are getting expensive again, and it means a few things for the Yankees. For starters, they might have to pay more than anticipated to sign a reliever, assuming they even try to sign a reliever. The bullpen is in good shape as it is. The Yankees could do nothing this offseason and roll into Spring Training with this relief crew:

• Closer: RHP Clay Holmes
• Setup: RHP Mike King, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, LHP Wandy Peralta
• Middle: LHP Lucas Luetge, RHP Ron Marinaccio, RHP Lou Trivino
• Long: RHP Clarke Schmidt
• Depth: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Jhony Brito, RHP Jimmy Cordero, LHP Matt Krook, RHP Greg Weissert
• Injured: RHP Scott Effross, RHP Luis Gil

Luetge could get non-tendered, King may not be fully recovered from his fractured elbow, and Schmidt may be asked to start again. Those are all reasons to look outside the organization for bullpen help. As is the fact there is always room for improvement. I don’t think the bullpen is a priority this winter, but if something comes along that makes sense and is an upgrade, why wouldn’t the Yankees do it?

The uptick in reliever salaries make it less likely something will come along that makes sense though. Zack Britton’s and Aroldis Chapman’s big money contracts just expired and I’m not sure the Yankees are eager to go down that road again. Also, will any other free agent relievers get a big contract at this point? The top unsigned free agent relievers by projected 2023 WAR:

1. RHP Chris Martin: +0.7 WAR
2. LHP Taylor Rogers: +0.7 WAR
3. LHP Aroldis Chapman: +0.5 WAR (a reunion ain't happening)
4. RHP Craig Kimbrel: +0.5 WAR
5. RHP Tommy Kahnle: +0.5 WAR

Kenley Jansen is still out there and he could get a nice contract given his status as a capital-C Closer. Otherwise Diaz, Montero, and Suarez might be it. I’m not sure there’s another $9M+ a year reliever out there. It’s possible the big money reliever contracts are done with this offseason and the rest will be more “normal” signings in line with the last few years.

Of course, the uptick in free agent reliever contracts will also lead to an increase in trade value. There will be free agent sticker shock and contenders will start calling rebuilders about relievers, and they’ll in turn have a big asking price. Don’t want to give me two top 10 prospects for my stud pre-arbitration relief ace? Go give Chris Martin two years and $18M then. For more than a few clubs, trading the prospects will be more appealing than shelling out the money.

The flip side to this is the Yankees might be able to fetch a good return for one of their relievers in a trade. They have some depth, at least on paper. Is it worth trading two years of Loaisiga to get, say, a young outfielder? It might be! Loaisiga is a key cog in the machine, but the Yankees are pretty good at developing relievers. Trading from the bullpen in an inflated reliever market could be a sneaky great way to improve the roster overall.

And with reliever salaries apparently skyrocketing, the ability to take someone else’s spare arm and turn him into a reliable bullpen guy (think Holmes, Wandy, even Trivino) is awfully valuable. It reduces your reliance on the inflated free agent market and, if nothing else, gives you the option of trading from your bullpen. I’m sure the Yankees are getting calls about their relievers. It doesn’t hurt to listen. Not when relievers with limited track records like Suarez are getting $9M+ a year.

The rest of the free agent market hasn’t started moving yet, but arguably the top three relievers are already off the board, and they were paid handsomely. The fact their teams moved quickly to re-sign them suggests they were worried about a bidding war. It’s supply and demand, and with quality bullpen arms, there’s always more demand than supply. If the Yankees want to add to their bullpen, it’ll cost them. But if they’re willing to trade from their relief crew, it could net a surprisingly good return.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)