November 11th, 2022: Qualifying Offers, Roster Moves, Hot Stove Rumors, Rule 5 Draft, Mailbag

Offseason Plan update: It will be published next week. I hope to get it up before the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline Tuesday so it doesn’t look like I’m just copying whatever the Yankees do, but I’m also not going to work myself to the bone this weekend. I’m going to try for Tuesday. If it’s Wednesday, then it’s Wednesday. I am efforting. Now let’s get to today’s post.

1. Latest roster moves. Thursday was a busy day on the ol’ offseason calendar. Nothing seismic, though it was an important roster management day. Here are the Yankees’ moves, as announced by the team.

Judge and Rizzo receive qualifying offers

As expected, Anthony Rizzo officially opted out of his contract earlier this week, and also as expected, the Yankees tendered Rizzo and Aaron Judge the qualifying offer. It’s worth $19.65M this offseason. Here are the 14 players who received the qualifying offer. Jameson Taillon is not among them. The Yankees won’t get a draft pick if/when he signs elsewhere.

Because of their luxury tax status, the Yankees will only receive a compensation draft pick after the fourth round for losing a qualified free agent. It’s not much, but it’s better than nothing for Judge and Rizzo. With Taillon, it was not a big enough reward to roll the dice with $19.65M. Here are his contract projections, for what it’s worth:

• Jim Bowden (subs. req’d): 4 years, $70M ($17.5M per year)
• ESPN: 2 years, $30M ($15M per year)
• FanGraphs: 3 years, $36M ($12M per year)
• MLBTR: 4 years, $56M ($14M per year)

Not sure I buy that four-year, $70M projection. That feels like Taillon’s best case scenario. The other contracts are more in line with reality I think, in which case accepting the qualifying offer and trying free agency again next offseason would have been a serious consideration. Now Taillon gets to test the market without draft pick compensation depressing his value.

The qualifying offer was likely the Yankees’ best chance at retaining Taillon. It’s a big salary, sure, but the one-year term limits risk, and Taillon has been steady and reliable the last two years. An ace befitting the No. 2 overall pick? No, but reliable. The Yankees will look for rotation help elsewhere this offseason, assuming they look for rotation help at all.

Brito, Cordero, Krook added to 40-man roster

The Yankees added righties Jhony Brito and Jimmy Cordero, and lefty Matt Krook, to the 40-man roster, preventing them from becoming minor league free agents. It also protected them from the Rule 5 Draft. Krook was with the Yankees on the taxi squad for the final regular season series in Texas. That was a pretty good indication the southpaw was 40-man roster bound.

Krook, 28, was a minor league Rule 5 Draft pick a few years ago (he was drafted by the Giants and sent to the Rays in the Evan Longoria trade), and his 155 strikeouts this year set a new single-season record for Triple-A Scranton (including their time as a Phillies’ affiliate). Krook is a sinker/slider guy who walks a few too many (13.1% walks and 58.0% grounders in 215.1 Triple-A innings the last two years). The walks likely mean he’s destined for the bullpen.

As for Brito, he’s been an interesting sleeper type for a few years now and he finally broke out last season, then he built on it this season: 2.96 ERA (3.91 FIP) with 20.0% strikeouts, 7.7% walks, 11.7% swinging strikes, and 54.4% grounders in 70.2 innings at Double-A and Triple-A. Here is a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Brito has shown more fastball velocity in 2022 than he had in the past, working at 94-96 mph and touching 98 while employing both two-seamers and four-seamers. He owns one of the best changeups in the system, a mid-80s cambio with fade. He has improved his slider/cutter this season and it could become an average offering, and he also has a softer curveball.

Brito pounds the strike zone and elicits weak contact more than he misses bats. Unless he can develop a better breaking ball, he probably profiles more as a multi-inning reliever than a starter. His work ethic and continuing improvement help his cause.

Back-end starters aren’t sexy but you need them, and the Yankees thinned out their upper level pitching depth at the trade deadline (Ken Waldichuk, Hayden Wesneski, JP Sears, etc.). A guy like Brito may never be higher than sixth or seventh on the rotation depth chart. Still, you’d rather be able to call up someone like this than rely on Sidney Ponsons and Sergio Mitres. Brito and Krook are not top prospects. They figure to have big league utility though, so they’re on the 40-man.

Cordero, 31, has big league time and he pitched to a 2.09 ERA (2.91 FIP) with excellent strikeout (31.8%), swinging strike (14.7%), and ground ball (51.7%) rates in 38.2 Triple-A innings in 2022. The Yankees signed him to a minor league deal last offseason, when he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and I guess they liked what they saw during his time with the RailRiders. Cordero is an upper-90s sinker dude like most guys in the bullpen. Added bonus: Cordero has a minor league option for 2022, so he can shuttled up and down.

Locastro elects free agency

Tim Locastro elected free agency after being dropped from the 40-man roster. No surprise there. The Yankees weren’t taking him to arbitration (projected $1.2M salary) and Locastro is out of options, so no more shuttling him up and down. After all this, the Yankees have three open 40-man spots. The Rule 5 Draft protection deadline is Tuesday and remember, they’ll need space to re-sign or replace Judge, Rizzo, Taillon, etc.

2. Latest hot stove news and rumors. The GM Meetings were held this week and there weren’t any major moves. It’ll pick up (I mean really pick up) soon. Things are quiet around the Yankees and quiet around most teams. Here’s the latest.

Yankees begin talks with Judge

As of 5pm ET Thursday, free agents are free to negotiate and sign with any team, so you could wake up tomorrow and find out Judge is a San Francisco Giant. That’s (probably) not how it will play out, but you never know. Point is, the market is open, and earlier this week Brian Cashman said the Yankees have begun talks with Judge.

"Have we engaged them since the end of the season? The answer is yes," Cashman told Jon Morosi. “... I don’t know (how long we can wait before exploring alternatives). We’d like to keep him. If we feel like we have a shot, then he’s someone worth waiting for. But clearly he’s going to direct the dance tempo to his free agency, which is understandable.”

Cashman also told Joel Sherman Judge’s representatives have not promised to give the Yankees the last chance to match or beat the best offer. The Giants are making it known they are ready to spend – “I think from a financial standpoint, there’s nobody that would be out of our capability,” baseball operations head Farhan Zaidi told Alden Gonzalez – so yeah, the game is underway. It’s only the top of the first, but the game is being played.

It’s kinda weird to be on the “trying to keep a star” side of free agency and not the “sign some other team’s star” side, isn’t it? The only other time we’ve done this is Robbie Cano. And the Yankees weren’t as eager to keep Cano as they are to keep Judge, at least based on their public comments. There will be lots of rumblings that make us feel nervous about Judge possibly leaving in the coming weeks, but that’s just the nature of free agency. Try not to freak out (yet).

“I have no confidence either way. You enter this process not assuming anything,” Cashman told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d). “The one thing I do know is I think he really enjoys the experience here. Those are his words. I know we certainly enjoyed the experience of having him and we’re proud of his career thus far and we hope to be a part of his career the rest of the way. We have to have some serious conversations, and we will. Hopefully we can retain him. I have no feel how we sit compared to curiosities he has elsewhere and if he has any. We’ll have to stay tuned to find out. We’ll certainly make it tough on him, and I’m sure he’ll make it tough on us. That’s the nature of the beast.”

(I gotta say, Judge signing with another team and then revealing the Yankees’ final offer during his press conference would be high comedy after Cashman did that with the extension offer in Spring Training. That really chapped Judge.)

Yankees want to retain Benintendi

According to Sherman, the Yankees want to re-sign Andrew Benintendi, and Cashman told Kirschner (subs. req’d) he plans to talk to Benintendi’s camp soon. The Yankees have made an effort to get more left-handed and more contact-oriented in the last 16 months and Benintendi was a major part of those efforts this summer. He just hurt at a bad time.

For what it’s worth, here are the contract projections on Benintendi:

• Jim Bowden (subs. req’d): 5 years, $75M ($15M per year)
• ESPN: 3 years, $42M ($14M per year)
• FanGraphs: 4 years, $56M ($14M per year)
• MLBTR: 4 years, $54M ($13.5M per year)

Benintendi turned only 28 in July, so he’s young for a free agent, and $14M to $15M per year puts him in the Mark Canha/Avisail Garcia range. That’s reasonable, and limiting the contract to four years would capture just about whatever’s left of his peak without taking on a bunch of decline years.

It’s unlikely Benintendi will ever hit .320 again like he did with the Royals this year because there are very few true talent .320 hitters out there. He’s a career .279/.351/.431 (109 wRC+) hitter though, and perhaps he can be even better than that at ages 28-30. Benintendi has been at worst a league average hitter in full 162-game seasons in his career, and he’s a gifted defender.

The red flag is the wrist injury. Hamate surgery is known to sap production (particularly power) for months even after the player is cleared to return, and the wrist was still giving Benintendi trouble even after surgery. He needed an injection for lingering discomfort in October. That is, uh, not great. Maybe the wrist won’t be an issue next year because Benintendi isn’t a power hitter. It’s still something that must be checked out. It’s a pretty significant injury.

Cashman backs Donaldson

Josh Donaldson, 37 next month, was an excellent defender this past season and also very bad at the plate, including hitting .198/.275/.326 (73 wRC+) with a 31.7% strikeout rate in over 300 plate appearances against righties after returning from the injured list in June. Despite that, Cashman said Donaldson is the team’s third baseman. From Kirschner (subs. req’d):

“I don’t think it goes away that quickly,” Cashman said regarding Donaldson’s bat. “That’s basically it. I think he still has game left. I think he has a chance to impact that win column. He did it for us in a different way, more so on the defensive side, but he’s certainly capable of a lot.”

When directly asked if Donaldson will be the team’s starting third baseman for 2023, here’s what he said:

“He’s our third baseman right now,” Cashman said. “He’s signed for next year so he’s our third baseman. If there’s something different there, I’ll let you know. I thought he played excellent defense. He’s a better hitter than what he showed. He struggled there in the end, like a lot of our guys. He wasn’t the only one. I think the reality is he is more of the player before this year than this year’s offensive side. He should’ve been the Gold Glove. I don’t know why he wasn’t even in the finalists. That was a mistake. The bat is better than what he showed. We believe that. I can easily say he’s a two-way force in this game, in my opinion.”

These comments seem designed specifically to anger Yankees fans – the bat can absolutely go away that quickly (see: Soriano, Alfonso) – but what is Cashman supposed to say about a player under contract? It was shocking Cashman talked so openly about wanting to trade Sonny Gray a few years ago because that stuff never happens. Teams always back their players.

The Yankees said Gio Urshela would be their shortstop literally hours before the trade in March. These things can change in an instant and I’m certain the Yankees are again trying to move Donaldson (they tried to trade him at the deadline), not that it will be easy. I wouldn’t pay much mind to Cashman’s comments. Bubba Crosby is the starting center fielder right up until he isn’t.

Senga becomes a free agent

Kodai Senga officially opted out of his contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks recently and is now a free agent able to sign with any team. He doesn’t have to go through the posting process. He’s a true free agent. Here are some contract projections:

• Jim Bowden (subs. req’d): 3 years, $72M ($24M per year)
• ESPN: 5 years, $72M ($14.4M per year)
• FanGraphs: 4 years, $60M ($15M per year)
• MLBTR: 5 years, $75M ($15M per year)

Bowden’s projections have been eerily accurate over the years, though this one is a bit out there. Senga will be 30 on Opening Day and the $24M annual salary is hefty. Robbie Ray got $21M per year coming off a Cy Young last offseason. The age and lack of MLB track record make the other projections more likely to me. Those are Jon Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez figures.

I can’t find it now but the other day I stumbled across a story from Japan about the Yankees being among the teams to show interest in Senga, though I have no idea how valid the report is. The Yankees always do their due diligence on top Japanese players, but the only ones they’ve seriously pursued were guys in their mid-20s (Shohei Ohtani, Masahiro Tanaka, etc.).

Also, the Yankees don’t really do 4-5 years for starters. They either go long-term with top of the market guys (Tanaka, Gerrit Cole, CC Sabathia), trade for guys under team control and thus working on a series of one-year contracts (Gray, Taillon, James Paxton, Michael Pineda, etc.), or go short-term (J.A. Happ, Hiroki Kuroda, etc.). Here are the last six starters the Yankees have signed to a contract of at least three guaranteed years:

• Gerrit Cole: 9 years in 2020
• Masahiro Tanaka: 7 years in 2014
• CC Sabathia: 7 years in 2009
• A.J. Burnett: 5 years in 2009
• Carl Pavano: 4 years in 2005
• Jaret Wright: 4 years in 2005

Funny enough, the Yankees have been more willing to give relievers 3+ years than starters (Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Rafael Soriano, etc.). Those days are probably over though. At least for the foreseeable future. Britton and Chapman didn’t exactly work out.

That doesn’t mean the Yankees won’t zag after zigging so long. The Yankees have ranked among the hardest throwing teams in the sport the last few years and it is by design. They’re all-in on velocity and Senga regularly sits in the upper-90s and touches 100 mph with top of the line pitch traits. Plus they’ll need pitching beyond 2023 with Frankie Montas and Luis Severino a year away from free agency, and the farm system short on upper level rotation options.

Senga’s market is said to be vast and the more teams involved, the more likely it is one of them really extends themselves to get the player. Maybe $24M isn’t far fetched after all? I don’t expect the Yankees to be among the finalists for Senga. They’ll dip their toe, sure, but their behavior with starting pitchers and Japanese players in general suggests we shouldn’t get our hopes up.

Yoshida likely to be posted

The Orix Buffaloes are “increasingly likely” to post outfielder Masataka Yoshida for MLB teams, reports Morosi. Jon Heyman adds the Yankees have interest in Yoshida, though “have interest in” is one step above “have internally discussed” on the hot stove uselessness scale. I have interest in dating Ana de Armas, but I don’t think that one’s gonna work out (she wishes).

Orix just won the Japan Series and they have until Dec. 5th to post Yoshida. Sherman says the negotiating period is 45 days now, not 30, so once the Buffaloes post him, he’ll have a month and a half to work out a contract with MLB teams. Here’s what I wrote about Yoshida last week and here’s video. Alas, there are no contract projections yet because Yoshida hasn’t been posted.

Yoshida has been speculated as a fit for the Yankees because he’s a high contact lefty hitter, though my guess is the Yankees would prioritize Benintendi over Yoshida. Benintendi is a year younger, a very similar hitter, better defensively, and a known MLB quality. Also likely cheaper once you factor in the posting fee and all that. We’ll see where this goes.

Miscellany

No shock here, but the Yankees hope to re-sign Anthony Rizzo. "(We would) love to sign Anthony Rizzo back if possible. We’ll stay in touch with him as well as the rest of the marketplace. We clearly have a vacancy now at first base. The preference would be to retain the player we know and like,” Cashman told Bryan Hoch at the GM Meetings. A reunion feels more likely than not, but who knows how long it’ll take … The trade market is moving and Cashman told Morosi the Yankees are “listening and engaging,” with multiple teams asking about their infielders. I assume they’re asking about Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe (and Gleyber Torres) more than Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Torres, Kiner-Falefa, and Donaldson led the Yankees in games played at their positions in 2022 (duh). My not-so-bold prediction is at least one is traded away this winter … And finally, Tanaka is staying with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan. He made the announcement earlier this week. Now 34, Tanaka had a 3.31 ERA with an 18.9% strikeout rate in 163 innings in 2022. It was his worst season in Japan since he was a teenager, and chances are he’s in decline now given his age and the almost 3,000 innings on his arm. The Yankees let Tanaka leave two years ago because they felt his stuff was declining, so I seriously doubt they would have considered bringing him back in 2023. At least now we know he’s not going to wind up with the Red Sox or Mets or whoever.

3. Rule 5 Draft protection. Tuesday is the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, and while it’s not the most exciting date on the offseason calendar, it is an important one. Prospect and 40-man roster management is important stuff. Here are the notable Yankees minor leaguers eligible for this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft:

• Catchers: Josh Breaux, Antonio Gomez, Anthony Seigler
• Infielders: Andres Chaparro, Jesus Bastidas, Anthony Garcia, Alex Vargas
• Outfielders: Ryder Green, Brandon Lockridge, Raimfer Salinas
• Righties: Juan Carela, Yorlin Calderon, Zach Greene, Barrett Loseke, Matt Sauer, Mitch Spence, Randy Vasquez, Tyrone Yulie
• Lefties: Edgar Barclay, Matt Minnick

As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 Draft must remain on their new team’s active MLB roster all year in 2023. If not, they go through waivers and are then offered back to their original team. The Yankees have had 13 players selected in the last five Rule 5 Drafts. No other team has lost more than eight.

Losing so many players in the Rule 5 Draft is good and bad. It’s bad to lose players in general (duh), though it also shows organizational depth. Roster spots are finite. You can’t hoard talent indefinitely. The Yankees have lost 13 players in the last five Rule 5 Drafts but only two (Trevor Stephan and Garrett Whitlock) really hurt. The others were returned or are bit players.

The Yankees currently have three open 40-man spots but that doesn’t mean they will or should use all three on prospects. They need room to do things like re-sign Aaron Judge, bring in a left fielder, reinforce the pitching, etc. Once a prospect is on the 40-man roster, he’s going to stay there for a bit. Flexibility is key.

With all that in mind, let’s break down this year’s Rule 5 Draft protection class. The Yankees cleared the logjam a bit by trading Rule 5 Draft eligible pitchers T.J. Sikkema, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski at the deadline.

Locks

I only see one: Randy Vasquez. Baseball America (subs. req’d) recently ranked him the No. 9 prospect in the system and he’s not far from being MLB ready. Vasquez threw 115.1 Double-A innings with a 3.90 ERA (3.90 FIP) and solid strikeout (24.2%), walk (8.3%), swinging strike (11.9%), and ground ball (48.3%) rates this season. He also threw eight no-hit innings in the Eastern League Championship Series clincher. Vasquez looks like most Yankees pitchers (92-96 mph sinker with a sweepy breaking ball) and might only be a reliever long-term because his command is lacking, but he’ll be a big leaguer soon. The Yankees will put him on the 40-man. No doubt.

On the bubble

Josh Breaux falls into this group. The career .297 OBP is an eyesore, but Breaux reached Triple-A this year and has averaged 25 homers per 500 plate appearances in his career. He’s a legitimate catcher too. Real power from behind the plate is always in demand and Breaux is reasonably close to MLB ready.

Also, catchers stink nowadays. Baseball Prospectus has the best catcher defense metrics out there and only 14 catchers topped +2.0 WARP in 2022. Only 26 were at +1 WARP or better. FanGraphs WAR includes framing and only 12 catchers were at +2 WAR this year, and 25 were at +1 WAR. There are fewer +1 WAR catchers than teams right now.

The track record of catchers taken in the Rule 5 Draft is hideous, but given the state of catching around the game, I think Breaux’s power makes him a potential Rule 5 Draft pick. The Yankees have three catchers on the 40-man now (Kyle Higashioka, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Trevino), but four isn’t uncommon across the league. They might add Breaux and trade him just to avoid losing him for nothing.

Andres Chaparro’s interesting. He broke out last year and built on it this year, slashing .289/.369/.594 (158 wRC+) with 19 homers in 271 Double-A plate appearances around an injury, and the strikeout (19.9%), swinging strike (11.4%), and walk (9.2%) rates were solid. Chaparro had a few 118 mph exit velocities the last two years and that surprised even the Yankees.

The comp I got on Chaparro is Renato Nunez. A righty who will hit a mistake fastball 450 feet, flail against quality breaking stuff, and fake it at third base before settling in at first and DH. Most Rule 5 Draft position players are up the middle athletes. The last DH type taken was Mike Ford in 2017. Chaparro could get a look in Spring Training. I’m not sure he’s sticking in 2023 though.

Matt Sauer had that 17-strikeout game in August and his stuff is firming up as he gets further away from his 2019 Tommy John surgery and pandemic-impacted rehab. His riding fastball sat closer to mid-90s than low-90s by the end of the season and he has a big ol’ sweeper. Sauer made four Double-A starts in 2022 and probably isn’t an MLB option in 2023, but after what amounted to three lost seasons from 2019-21, the arrow’s pointing up again.

I don’t know what to make of Anthony Seigler. He finally stayed healthy this year and finally showed something with the bat, hitting .236/.405/.369 (125 wRC+) with seven homers and more walks (21.8%) than strikeouts (19.7%) in 417 plate appearances split between the two Single-A levels. The 2018 first round pick had 391 plate appearances total from 2018-21 between injuries and the pandemic.

A switch-hitting catcher who makes contact with ease and has first round pedigree feels like an obvious protection case, though the reviews on Seigler still aren’t good. He doesn’t drive the ball often and catching pro caliber stuff has been a challenge. Is he back on the prospect map? Yes. Is he capable of making the jump from High-A to MLB in 2023? Very likely not.

Sometimes the best way to keep a player is to leave him exposed, let another team give him a look as a Rule 5 Draft pick in Spring Training, then welcome him back when he’s returned. Luis Torrens showed rebuilding teams will take a kid who isn’t MLB ready just to get the talent into the organization, but that was six years ago now. It hasn’t happened since Torrens.

My guess is the Yankees will add Breaux and Sauer to the 40-man and leave Chaparro and Seigler exposed. I’m not confident in that, but that’s my guess. Stephan and Whitlock might spook the Yankees into protecting Sauer. He’s a similar live-armed pitcher who might be able to out-stuff big leaguers in sheltered innings right now. If the Yankees are on the fence about a kid, Stephan and Whitlock could be that last little push toward protecting the player. They don’t want to repeat those mistakes.

Sleepers

I get Shane Greene vibes from Mitch Spence. Greene’s minor league performance was so-so and if he appeared on a prospect list, it was toward the bottom, but everyone raved about his stuff, then he got to the big leagues and it was like “where did this guy come from???” Spence is similar in that he’s a bottom of the list prospect and the numbers are meh, but the stuff pops.

Spence, 25 in May and a tenth round pick in 2019, had a 4.70 ERA (4.30 FIP) with just a 22.5% strikeout rate in 130.1 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A this year, though his 13.4% swinging strike rate was in the top third of minor leaguers. Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote before the season:

He’s a slider monster, with a potential plus-plus slide piece headlining a four-pitch mix. His low-90s heater also has big cut/carry traits that help it play up. Spence will show you a curveball and changeup on occasion. It’s not an obvious starter’s mix but the changeup is relatively new and might still develop, in which case he’d look like a backend starter. Or Spence might move back into the bullpen and throw harder an inning at a time.

I’m curious to see what Spence looks like as a one-inning air-it-out reliever. Greg Weissert is a similar slider monster who was passed over in several Rule 5 Drafts, and didn’t break through until he added velocity. He had to change his training to add velocity. Spence might get it simply by moving into a short relief role. Wouldn’t you rather find out than let another team try it?

Zach Greene (no relation to Shane) had a 33.3% strikeout rate and a 14.6% swinging strike rate in 68.1 Triple-A relief innings this year (he also made four “opens”) and his fastball has invisiball characteristics. It sits only 91-92 mph, but it jumps on hitters because of the spin and angle through the zone. Here’s video. Hitters react to it like it’s 96-97 mph, not 91-92 mph.

Spence and Greene are exactly the kinda players the Rule 5 Draft is designed to help. They’re not top prospects but they figure to have big league utility, and their current organization may not have room for them on the 40-man. I don’t think the Yankees will protect either Spence or Green. Don’t be surprised to hear their name called on Rule 5 Draft day, particularly by a team with analytical leanings.

Low minors kids

Because of the pandemic, there are a lot of 21-22 year old kids who are Rule 5 Draft eligible despite limited pro experience. Alex Vargas hadn’t played more than 48 games in a season until this year. Antonio Gomez has 611 career plate appearances. Tyrone Yulie hasn’t hit 50 games pitched yet. These kids are still very early in their careers, yet they’re Rule 5 Draft eligible.

This group also includes Juan Carela, Yorlin Calderon, Anthony Garcia, Ryder Green, and Raimfer Salinas. Garcia, a big slugging first baseman, was a breakout candidate entering the season and he finished with a 40.6% strikeout rate in a full season with Low-A Tampa, so forget that. Green and Salinas haven’t hit, Carela and Calderon aren’t making the jump from Single-A to MLB, and neither is Vargas.

I think Gomez has the best chance to get selected in the Rule 5 Draft and thus the best chance to be protected. The soon-to-be 21-year-old is an excellent defensive catcher and a lock to stay behind the plate, and he hit .268/.343/.398 (113 wRC+) in 306 plate appearances after joining Low-A Tampa for good in May. A team might Torrens him. I don’t think so, but it’s possible.

Nah

Edgar Barclay and Matt Minnick are stats over scouting report pitchers and Barrett Loseke is a ways down the bullpen prospect depth chart. Could they get picked? Sure, though there will be dozens of more attractive pitches available in the Rule 5 Draft. Brandon Lockridge was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft previously and just had the worst season of his career, so he’s a no. Jesus Bastidas had a big power breakout this season but has approach concerns. He won’t be protected. Righty Sean Boyle is a low slot slinger a la Ryan Weber. He won’t be protected, but he could interest teams.

Final verdict

The bet here is the Yankees will add three prospects to the 40-man: Breaux, Sauer, and Vasquez. That’s on top of Jhony Brito and Matt Krook, who were added to the 40-man Thursday to prevent them from becoming minor league free agents. Three more prospects feels like one too many. Maybe Breaux gets left out? Vasquez is a lock, but I think the other two are good enough prospects with a good chance to be selected that the Yankees will add them, even if only to trade them later in the offseason. 40-man space is finite and limited, so every decision will be made carefully.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Two quick injury notes. First, there’s no update on DJ LeMahieu’s foot, Brian Cashman told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d). Sounds like it may be another month of rehab work before determining whether surgery is necessary. And second, Nestor Cortes is still rehabbing the groin injury he suffered in Game 4 of the ALCS. “I’m walking around great. I feel I can jog, but we are taking this very slow. Last time, we took it a little too fast. I reinjured it,” Nestor told Bill Ladson recently. I guess that means Cortes would not have been available had the Yankees continued deeper into the postseason, huh? Get well soon, Nestor … The Hall of Fame’s Contemporary Era Committee (that’s what they’re calling the Veterans Committee these days) released their ballot earlier this week and Don Mattingly is among the eight players up for a vote. The 16-person committee includes Hall of Famers, longtime MLB and team executives, and veteran media members. 12 votes are needed for induction, though each committee member can only cast three votes. If they shun Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro because of performance-enhancing drugs, and Curt Schilling because he’s been a baby about the Hall of Fame voting process the last few years, then Mattingly’s got a decent chance to get in. These committees tend to look kindly upon players who were well-liked and controversy-free (like Harold Baines). That’s good news for Mattingly (and also Fred McGriff and Dale Murphy). The voting results will be announced Sunday, Dec. 4th. Mattingly topped out at 28.3% of the vote in his 15 years on the BBWAA’s ballot. I don’t know if he’ll get in now, but the committee is a legit chance to get into Cooperstown. (If Mattingly doesn’t get in this time, he can appear on the ballot again in the future. This isn’t a one-and-done thing.) … And finally, the automated strike zone (ABS for automated balls and strikes) is coming to the Triple-A International League in 2023. It was used in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League last year and will now make its way to all 30 Triple-A parks, reports Joel Sherman. It will not be used every single game. It will be used a few times a week, and they’ll also continue testing the challenge system. With the challenge system there’s a human umpire calling balls and strikes, and the pitcher, hitter, or catcher can challenge a call to ABS. Here’s video of Jasson Dominguez challenging a call in the Arizona Fall League last month. Took about 15 seconds for the entire process to play out. Not bad. Two takeaways here. One, ABS is one step closer to MLB. It’s coming eventually. I don’t know when, but soon-ish. And two, I hope this means we’re getting public Statcast data for the International League now. We had it for PCL games with ABS last year. Would be cool to check on things like Anthony Volpe’s exit velocity, Randy Vasquez’s spin rates, and pitch selection tweaks for that random reliever the Yankees signed to a minor league deal.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Ray asks: I see no way Hal carries four expensive players on his roster. Assuming Donaldson is untradeable (is he?) and neither Cole or Judge (if re-signed) aren’t going anywhere, does Stanton have a market, understanding he has a no-trade clause. I could see the Yanks salary dumping him for a couple of lottery tickets just to clear money.

No one is untradeable. Some are less tradeable than others, but not one is untradeable. Given the contract and the fact he is now a 33-year-old most of the time DH with a long injury history, Giancarlo Stanton is one of the least tradeable players in the game. His luxury tax hit is $22M and that’s not much these days. It was the 40th highest luxury tax hit in 2022.

In terms of real dollars though, Stanton is owed $130M over the next five years, and that’s even after subtracting out the $30M the Marlins are paying (his recalculated luxury tax hit would be $26M after a trade). I don’t think a single team would take that all on. The Yankees would have to eat a chunk of it. $10M a year? $15M? I don’t know, but they will have to eat money the same way the Marlins did.

Stanton has a full no-trade clause and he used it to block trades to the Cardinals and Giants back in the day. He was willing to accept a trade to four teams in 2017: Astros, Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees. The competitive landscape has changed quite a bit since then (compare the Cubs then to the Cubs now) and maybe Stanton’s willing to consider more teams (Giants? Padres?).

I am certain the Yankees would jump at the chance to unload Stanton. He’s leaving his prime and the ugly decline years are coming. How much money are they willing to eat to do it? Are they willing to attach prospect(s) to Stanton to get it done? Unclear. Even then, the market would likely be limited, and for all we know he’s told the Yankees don’t bother asking, I’m staying here.

I’d call the Padres first. They’re a contender and close to Stanton’s Southern California home, and they love to do big and crazy things. I wonder about the Braves too. Their core is so cheap that they can afford a pricey DH. Braves, Padres, Giants, Dodgers. That might be the extent of Stanton’s market. I think the Yankees want to unload him but know it’ll be close to impossible.

Alex asks: Cash mentioned at the end of season news conference that the team wants Stanton to play the OF a few times per week. Anecdotally, it seems that Stanton has been much better when he plays the OF during his tenure in NY, but I don’t know how to look that up. Am I right and could that be part of their calculus?

Giancarlo Stanton has indeed been more productive when playing the outfield than DH, particularly the last two seasons. Here are the numbers quick:

2018-22 as DH: .249/.341/.497 (129 wRC+) in 1,248 PA
2018-22 as OF: .269/.340/.510 (131 wRC+) in 641 PA

2021-22 as DH: .237/.328/.471 (121 wRC+) in 754 PA
2021-22 as OF: .276/.340/.569 (150 wRC+) in 265 PA

Stanton has said he likes playing the field and believes it helps his offense because it allows him to take his mind off hitting. You can only take so many swings in the cage and watch so much video before it becomes paralysis by analysis. Playing the field gives guys a little mental break. The transition to DH isn’t always easy when you’ve played the field your entire life.

“I think (playing the field) has helped kind of just not focusing on hitting,” Stanton told Dan Martin last August. “You always want to be your best in the box and feel like you’re in the best mind frame, but that also means turning it off for a second and using that focus somewhere else. So yeah, it helps in some way.”

The Yankees use Stanton at DH so much strictly in an effort to keep him healthy. It hasn’t always worked and I’d argue using him in the outfield can help keep him healthy because he moves around and stays loose, but the last few years have made it pretty clear he’ll be a most of the time DH. The Yankees say they want to use him in the outfield and sometimes they follow through on it, yet it always seems to lead back to the same place, doesn’t it?

Thomas asks: What do you think of Gleyber Torres for Nolan Gorman? Who hangs up first? Gorman was about league average as a hitter in 2022, but didn’t grade out well defensively at second - and with Arenado opting in, he seems like an obvious trade target. The Yankees have a ton of 2B options for next year (DJLM, Peraza, IKF) and could afford to dangle Torres (like they told us they did last July), and Gorman would be their presumed 3B of the future and bring another source of lefty pop. What do you think?

The Cardinals would hang up. I agree Gorman is a trade candidate, but two years of Torres for six years of Gorman ain’t happening. Gorman has been a top 50-ish prospect in baseball the last four years now and he held his own in his MLB debut this year (.226/.300/.420 and 107 wRC+). St. Louis moved him to second base last year because of Nolan Arenado, so it’s understandable he’s still rough around the edges there (-6 DRS and -12 OAA).

The Yankees could put Gorman back at his natural third base and he would give them a lefty bat with power. The 22-year-old hit 30 homers between Triple-A and MLB in 2022. He also struck out 32.9% of the time with a 16.0% swinging strike rate in MLB, and had swinging strike rates in the minors that are almost identical to Estevan Florial’s, so there’s real lack of contact risk here.

Even with that risk, the Yankees are so desperate for lefty bats that it’s worth giving the Cardinals a call about Gorman. He’s not the contact bat they need, but this is a potential long-term pickup, and who knows what the team will need in 2-3 years? Maybe Torres can be part of a package for Gorman. I don’t think St. Louis would do it straight up. Gorman isn’t far removed from being a top prospect and Torres isn’t far away from free agency.

James asks: It's my observation that the Yankees have been masterfully in their bullpen construction insofar as they leveraged the shift with high strikeout/high groundball relievers.  Now without the shift, and fielders range becoming more of an issue, might a reliever profile of high strikeout/high pop-up become a better profile as the Yankees pick relievers?

I don’t think anyone really knows how the anti-shift rules will change the game, so we’re still in wait and see mode. Anecdotally, yeah, no shifts means more ground balls will get through, so it’s better to avoid contact. Quality of contact matters though and the Yankees are very good at getting weak grounders, so eliminating the shift may not hurt them much. I don’t get the sense the Yankees or any team is about to overhaul their pitching staff building philosophy without seeing the new rules in action though.

“It’s uncharted territory,” Phillies GM Sam Fuld (yes, that Sam Fuld) told Emma Baccellieri earlier this week. “There are some objective ways you can try to tackle that project, but there’s definitely going to be some subjective layering on top of that.”

Mike asks: Jim Crane, James Click and Dusty Baker seemed to have formed a tense triumvirate. If Click is out, could you see a scenario where the Yankees bring him in as GM and make Cashman PoBO? Would it make sense and would it even be workable understanding the personalities involved?

Dusty has a new contract for 2023 but Click does not, and apparently he’s been offered a one-year deal to return. That’s insulting, right? One-year deal for the GM who just won a World Series and back-to-back pennants? Baker is 73. I get him going year-to-year. Click is only 44. If you can’t get multiple years immediately after winning the World Series, when can you?

The downside for Click is there are no GM or president of baseball operations jobs open anywhere. Where's he going to go? Brian Cashman doesn’t have a contract yet but we all know he’s coming back. Elevating Cashman to team president and bringing in Click to run the day-to-day stuff makes sense, but would Click go for it? Would he go from World Series winning GM on to the No. 2 guy the next? He might have to at this point.

This also reflects poorly on Crane and the Astros. If you can only get a one-year contract offer after winning the World Series, then geez, that doesn’t sound like a great place to work. That said, there are only 30 of these top baseball operations executive jobs and they don’t open up all that often. The one-year offer is off-putting. Ultimately, someone will take that job.

I’m curious to see how this Click situation plays out. Does he say no thanks and go somewhere else for a year, or put his tail between his legs and take the one-year contract after winning the dang World Series? If Click leaves, teams will create a position for him, even if only for a year. It’s been a while since the Yankees have added a top front office executive from outside the organization. Click would be as good a candidate as any, even with his awkward people skills.

Chris asks: Mel Allen, Bob Sheppard, and Phil Rizzuto all have Monument Park plaques. Should the Yankees honor John Sterling this year? At age 84, it feels like the right time to do it. Suzyn Waldman also has a strong case, and I suppose it's worth bringing up Kay as well. What do you think?

Suzyn is a definite yes for me because she’s a pioneer in an industry that is still dominated by men. I’d say yes to Sterling as well. He’s been at it for over three decades and has been the voice of the Yankees for two generations of fans now. I would put both in and ideally it would be two separate ceremonies so Waldman can have her moment. As for Michael Kay, I don’t think he’s Monument Park worthy yet, but he’s certainly trending in that direction. No reason to think anyone will replace him as the television voice of the Yankees anytime soon.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)