November 1st, 2022: Arbitration, Qualifying Offers, Hot Stove

The Yankees’ season ended nine days ago and we’ve yet to hear anything from the organization beyond a few quotes from Hal Steinbrenner. Eventually they’re going to march Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman out in front of reporters to talk about the season, but it likely won’t be until after the World Series. So, we wait. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Arbitration projections. It’s that time of year again. MLBTR released their annual arbitration projections last month, and while their model isn’t perfect, it’s very good at ballparking salaries. The Yankees have 14 arb-eligible players this offseason. It’s a large class but not their largest in recent years – just last offseason the Yankees had 19 (!) arb-eligibles.

The Yankees (probably) won’t keep all 14 arb-eligible players this offseason, but they’re going to keep most of them. Let’s go through those 14 players, their salary projections, and see what’s what.

Starters and everyday players

• Gleyber Torres: $9.8M (third time as Super Two, made $6.25M in 2022)
• Frankie Montas: $7.7M (third time, made $5.025M in 2022)
• Nestor Cortes: $3.5M (first time, made $727,500 in 2022)
• Domingo German: $2.6M (second time, made $1.75M in 2022)
• Jose Trevino: $2M (first time, made $720,000 in 2022)

The Yankees might trade Torres (I don’t think it’ll be long before we hear the Gleyber-for-Pablo Lopez talks have been rekindled), but they won’t non-tender him. Same deal with Montas. He was quite bad as a Yankee, but non-tendering him and letting him leave for nothing after 40.2 innings just won’t happen. 

I had German as a possible non-tender candidate last offseason, following 98.1 pretty blah innings (4.58 ERA and 4.31 FIP) and another shoulder injury. Ultimately, he’s a serviceable No. 5 starter/swingman type. Some teams wouldn’t spend $2.6M on that guy. The Yankees can afford it and then some, plus they’ve stuck with German this long. He’ll be tendered.

This won’t matter for arbitration, but Cortes and Trevino will receive bonuses through the new pre-arb bonus pool. Bonuses are given to the top 100 pre-arb players in MLB’s mystery joint WAR stat, and Cortes and Trevino should clear the threshold easily (MLB’s WAR includes framing, which helps Trevino). Pre-arb bonuses don’t factor into arbitration, but it’s more money in their pockets.

(The Cardinals signed Harrison Bader to a two-year, $10.4M contract last offseason. It didn’t buy out any free agent years. It just gave St. Louis cost certainty over his final two arb years. Bader will make $4.7M next season with another $2.25M in incentives tied to plate appearances and games started. The Yankees don’t have to worry about arbitration with him.)

The increasingly expensive bullpen

• Lou Trivino: $4.2M (third time as Super Two, made $3M in 2022)
• Wandy Peralta: $3.1M (fourth time as Super Two, made $2.15M in 2022)
• Clay Holmes: $2.9M (second time, made $1.1M in 2022)
• Jonathan Loaisiga: $2.1M (second time, made $1.65M in 2022)
• Mike King: $1.2M (first time, made $722,500 in 2022)

Expensive is a relative term and the Yankees won’t have trouble affording this group. It’s just that not many teams would not commit $4.2M to their fourth best reliever. Trivino’s projected salary is inflated by the saves he picked up with the Athletics the last few years. Holmes is in line for a very nice raise. It pays to go to an All-Star Game and pick up a bunch of saves.

Hopefully King’s elbow heals well and he’s ready to go come Spring Training. These five relievers project to $13.5M combined next season, or $500,000 less than the Yankees paid Zack Britton to face nine big league batters in 2022. These guys are getting expensive but they’re still a bargain overall. The Yankees should get great value (cost vs. production) from their relief crew in 2023.

The expensive role players

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa: $6.5M (third time, made $4.7M in 2022)
• Kyle Higashioka: $1.7M (second time, made $935,000 in 2022)

$6.5M for Kiner-Falefa, huh. He’s probably worth it (FanGraphs, which was down on his defense in 2022, estimated his production at $10.7M) but that’s a good chunk of change for a comfortably below-average hitter with shaky defense. Kiner-Falefa might only be a utility guy next year, and if that is the case, he’ll be a pricey one. The Yankees can afford it, but eh.

That $1.7M projection would have made Higashioka one of the 30 highest paid catchers in the game in 2022, if you can believe that. It’s good money for a backup, particularly one with a career .245 OBP, but getting on base isn’t Higashioka’s game. He’s historically been an elite framer (he was a notch below that in 2022 though) who runs into the occasional homer. Ben Rortvedt’s lost season all but guarantees Higashioka will be back next year.

Non-tender candidates

• Lucas Luetge: $1.7M (second time, made $905,000 in 2022)
• Tim Locastro: $1.2M (second time as Super Two, made $900,000 in 2022)

Locastro is a goner, likely well before the Dec. 2nd non-tender deadline. Last offseason the Yankees designated him for assignment soon after the World Series in a 40-man roster cleanup move, the Red Sox grabbed him on waivers, then they non-tendered him at the deadline. As the speedy fifth outfielder you can shuttle up and down, Locastro is fine. But he’s out of options now and spending seven figures on that guy ain’t happening. Maybe the Yankees non-tender him and re-sign him to a minor league deal. No chance Locastro goes through arbitration though.

Luetge always seems to be on the roster bubble despite throwing 129.2 innings with a 2.71 ERA (2.92 FIP) and strong strikeout (25.0%), walk (5.8%), and barrel (4.8%) rates as a Yankee. He often soaks up multiple innings too. What more could you want from the last or second-to-last guy in the bullpen? Then again, $1.7M is a decent chunk of change to spend on the 24th or 25th man on the roster. The Yankees can afford it, but it ain’t cheap for the roster spot.

My hunch is Luetge winds up signing for something south of his projection. Teams are ruthless, and every year they go to players on the bubble and say “sign at this number or we’ll non-tender you.” Luetge has been quite good the last two years. He also turns 36 in March is a bad 3-4 game stretch away from never playing in the big leagues again. I don’t think the Yankees want to cut ties, but I think they will at $1.7M. My guess is Luetge signs below that projection.

2023 payroll outlook

With the arb projections in, let’s break down the 2023 payroll situation. Here’s what the Yankees have on the books right now. These are luxury tax payroll numbers, not actual salaries:

• Guaranteed contracts (7 players): $125.45M
• Arb-eligibles (13 players): $49M
• Pre-arb (6 players to fill out 26-man roster): $4.5M (estimated)
• Remaining 40-man roster: $3M (estimated)
• Miscellaneous: $18.2M (estimated – benefits and pre-arb bonus pool)

The seven players with guaranteed contracts: Bader, Gerrit Cole, Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks, DJ LeMahieu, Luis Severino, and Giancarlo Stanton. I’m comfortable assuming the Yankees will pick up Severino’s option, and I’m also comfortable assuming Anthony Rizzo will opt out of his contract. Also, I figure Locastro will get non-tendered, hence 13 arb-eligibles rather than 14.

That all adds up to $200.15M. Let’s call it $200M even. That $200M does not include Rizzo, Aaron Judge, or Jameson Taillon. Those are three important players who must be re-signed or replaced. Here’s the current roster using only players on the 40-man roster (asterisk indicates player is out of minor league options and must go through waivers to be sent down):

(If King and his elbow are not healthy enough to begin the 2023 season on time, then he goes on the injured list and either Abreu or Weissert slides into the bullpen.)

The luxury tax threshold goes up to $233M next year, so the third penalty tier is $273M. That’s the tier that pushes the next year’s first round pick back 10 spots and incurs heavy tax rates. The Yankees have gone over the luxury tax threshold a bunch of times over the years, but they’ve never gone over that third threshold, so staying under may be an ownership mandate.

Scary yet possible scenario: Judge signs elsewhere and the Yankees decide to stay under the $233M threshold. Another scary yet possible scenario: Judge re-signs and the Yankees still duck under the $233M threshold, likely by unloaded Donaldson and Hicks and their combined $35M luxury tax charge. There’s a path to cutting payroll (and thus weakening the roster) with or without Judge. We’ll see what happens.

Anyway, that’s the 2023 payroll situation. The Yankees are roughly $73M under the $273M third luxury tax threshold, and re-signing Judge would eat up (more than?) half that. The rest would then go to replacing Rizzo and Taillon, and making other upgrades to the roster (left field? third base? catcher? bench?). The Yankees have money to spend, but it can disappear quickly.

2. Qualifying offer candidates. The World Series will end no later than Sunday, and once it does teams will have five days to tender their eligible free agents the qualifying offer, which is still a thing because MLB and the MLBPA did not agree to an international draft this summer. Joel Sherman says the qualifying offer is worth $19.65M this offseason, up from $18.4M last year. It’s set at the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball.

Quick refresher: Free agents who accept the qualifying offer return to their team on a one-year contract worth that $19.65M. Free agents who reject it are tied to draft pick compensation. The qualifying offer has been around since the 2012-13 offseason and the Yankees have issued it eight times, but only once in the last seven offseasons. The eight and the outcomes:

• DJ LeMahieu (2020): Re-signed with Yankees.
• David Robertson (2014): Used comp pick on Kyle Holder.
• Robinson Cano (2013): Forfeited comp pick to sign Carlos Beltran.
• Curtis Granderson (2013): Forfeited comp pick to sign Jacoby Ellsbury.
• Hiroki Kuroda (2012 and 2013): Re-signed with Yankees both times.
• Rafael Soriano (2012): Used comp pick on Ian Clarkin.
• Nick Swisher (2012): Used comp pick on Aaron Judge.

Hey, one out of three compensation draft picks ain’t bad, especially when you hit on the one that big (Clarkin was part of the 2017 White Sox trade, so he was useful too). The Yankees haven’t given out many qualifying offers over the years, but this offseason will be different. They have multiple qualifying offer candidates for the first time in a long time. Let’s review, shall we?

Compensation rules

Let’s get this out of the way first. The Yankees were over the $230M luxury tax threshold this past season, so their free agent compensation situation is straightforward. These are the rules that apply to them this winter:

• Lose a qualified free agent: Receive a comp pick after the fourth round (that will be in the range of the No. 140 overall pick)
• Sign a qualifying free agent: Forfeit second and fifth highest draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money.

Just so it’s clear, those are all 2023 draft picks, and the $1M comes out of the bonus pool for the 2024 international signing period, not the 2023 signing period that begins in January (i.e. the Brando Mayea signing period). Compensation for teams that were under the luxury tax threshold is tied to the size of the player’s contract. We don’t have to worry about any of that.

An underrated dumb thing is the Yankees stayed under the luxury tax threshold in 2018 and 2021 and fell into the lesser penalty tier for signing a qualifying free agent (second highest draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus money), then didn't sign any qualified free agents those offseasons. What was the point of staying under the threshold again? Ah, right. Anyway, those are the rules that apply to the Yankees this winter.

No-brainer: Aaron Judge

Judge will obviously get a qualifying offer and the Yankees will hope and pray he takes it, even though that won’t happen. Could you imagine Judge agreeing to a one-year, $19.65M contract for next year? It would only be a $650,000 raise! Anyway, yeah, Judge is getting the qualifying offer and he will reject it, and sign for many hundreds of millions more.

Slightly less of a no-brainer: Anthony Rizzo

I say slightly less only because the possibility exists the Yankees have concerns about Rizzo’s back, and will cut ties completely if he opts out of his $16M salary for 2023. I don’t think that’s the case (Rizzo played well and played hard following the epidural in September, he didn’t let up on the back at all) but you never really know. Backs never really get better and the next time it flares it could be the time it ends Rizzo’s days as an above-average player.

As long as the back checks out, Rizzo will opt out and the Yankees will make him the qualifying offer. And I think the Yankees would be thrilled if Rizzo accepts. The raise is relatively small and it would be only a one-year commitment. If Rizzo opts out, I imagine it’s because he wants years. He might even take a pay cut from $16M in 2023 as long as it comes as part of a multi-year deal that nets more total dollars. So yeah, Rizzo will get a qualifying offer as long as there’s nothing too scary going on in his back (and if there is, he likely wouldn’t opt out anyway.)

On the bubble: Jameson Taillon

Taillon’s an interesting case. He was good more than great this year and solid overall, throwing 177.1 innings with a 3.91 ERA (3.94 FIP). Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Runs Average, a catch-all stat that adjusts for ballpark and opponent and contact quality and all that, had Taillon as a tick better than league average and in the same range as dudes like Miles Mikolas, Robbie Ray, and Taijuan Walker. If Taillon’s your No. 4 starter, you’re in great shape.

Here are the starting pitchers who received the qualifying offer in recent years while coming off a league average-ish season:

• Eduardo Rodriguez (age 28 in 2021): Signed five-year, $77M contract.
• Jake Odorizzi (age 29 in 2019): Accepted $17.8M qualifying offer.
• Madison Bumgarner (age 29 in 2019): Signed five-year, $85M contract.
• Dallas Keuchel (age 30 in 2018): Signed one-year, $13M contract.

Not an especially helpful sample. Rodriguez had age on his side. Bumgarner was a postseason legend, though he also endured a heavy workload early in his career and was already showing signs of decline. The Diamondbacks have regretted that contract since the ink dried. Keuchel got hosed and had to wait until June to sign, remember. The $13M was the $17.9M qualifying offer prorated.

Odorizzi might be the best comparison for Taillon as a good mid-rotation starter who at times flashed the ability to be better. There was some thought Odorizzi made a mistake accepting the qualifying offer and should’ve sought a multi-year deal, but I dunno. The top starters got paid that winter. The others not so much. Either way, Odorizzi then was two years younger than Taillon is now, and he had a much cleaner injury history.

Taillon turns 31 next month and this might be his best (only?) chance at a nice free agent payday. There’s certainly merit to taking the guaranteed $19.65M. Taillon has made roughly $17M in his career to date and that includes his $6.5M signing bonus as the No. 2 pick in the 2010 draft. Free agency is unpredictable. Given his age and injury history, I could see how taking the security of the $19.65M could be more appealing than rolling the dice in free agency.

I also understand this might be Taillon’s only chance to get multiple years and long-term security. He won’t get $19.65M a year in free agency but he could get something like three years at $12M a pop. That’s Yusei Kikuchi money. Accept the qualifying offer and Taillon would need to beat two years and $16.35M next offseason to come out ahead. Doable! He could also get hurt again and wind up in Matt Boyd/Danny Duffy territory (one year and $3M or so).

For the Yankees, would Taillon accepting the qualifying offer be a bad thing? It’s a big salary, yeah, but it’s a one-year deal, and Taillon has shown he can be productive in New York and all that comes with it. Let him leave and the comparable free agents to fill out the back of the rotation include, uh, Jose Quintana? Kyle Gibson? Corey Kluber Part Deux?

Teams tend to be conservative with $19.65M decisions and I think the Yankees will pass on making Taillon the qualifying offer, especially since the potential reward is only a draft pick after the fourth round. That's the range the Yankees found dudes like Ken Waldichuk, Will Warren, and Hayden Wesneski, but it’s not a premium draft pick either. I think Taillon is a no and I will add I am not overly confident in saying that. Curious to see how this goes.

It wouldn’t make sense: Luis Severino

The Yankees hold a $15M club option for Severino that comes with a $2.75M buyout, so it’s a $12.25M decision. I expect them to pick up the option, meaning there will be no qualifying offer decision to make. Severino might only be a 100-120 innings a year pitcher at this point in his career, but those 100-120 innings are great. I think every team in the sport would jump at a pitcher with Severino’s upside on a one-year, $12.25M contract.

That said, in the event the Yankees don’t pick up Severino’s option, they wouldn’t then make him the qualifying offer. Why walk away from a $12.25M option only to turn around and offer the guy $19.65M? Passing on the option would indicate the Yankees are worried about something (likely Severino’s medicals) and thus wouldn’t risk bringing him back at a higher salary. Also, declining the option and making the qualifying offer just to add a post-fourth round pick to the war chest isn’t a thing that will happen.

Not eligible: Andrew Benintendi (and Matt Carpenter)

To be eligible for the qualifying offer players must spend the entire season with their teams and have not received the qualifying offer previously. Benintendi came over at the deadline, so he’s not eligible (Rizzo wasn’t eligible for one last offseason for the same reason). The Royals traded Benintendi for the No. 9, 16, and 26 prospects in their farm system per MLB.com. That’s better than the one draft pick they would have received had they kept him and made him the qualifying offer. The Yankees might re-sign Benintendi, but they won’t get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

Carpenter is also ineligible for the qualifying offer because he didn’t spend the entire season with the Yankees. They signed him on May 26th. Carpenter wouldn’t get a qualifying offer anyway. He would take it instantly. I could see Carpenter back in 2023, but not at anything close to $19.65M. As good as he was before the injury, he’s still a soon-to-be 37-year-old most of the time DH. The market is unkind to those dudes.

Not happening

The Yankees have five other free agents who are eligible for the qualifying offer but obviously will not get one: Zack Britton, Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Marwin Gonzalez. They would all take the $19.65M in a heartbeat. Even Chapman, who has made a ton of money in his career and is on the outs with the organization. Relievers do get the qualifying offer on occasion, but they’re always top of the line relievers (think peak Kenley Jansen), not guys like Britton and Green, who have strong track records but are coming off major injuries.

So, no qualifying offers among this last group. Judge will get one and Rizzo will most likely get one, and I think that’s it. Maybe Taillon gets one too. I lean no but it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll get a qualifying offer. Severino’s option situation makes a qualifying offer unlikely, Benintendi (and Carpenter) is not eligible, and that’s really it. No other candidates.

3. Hot stove rumors. We’re still a few days away from the hot stove really heating up, but here are a few nuggets to hold us over, with a healthy dose of news on Japanese players looking to come over to MLB.

Yankees “will stretch” for Judge

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees “will stretch” to keep Aaron Judge, and while this isn’t the kinda thing I would usually share, I want to use this as an opportunity to say the tone of hot stove reports matter. When the Yankees want a player – I mean really want a player –  they make sure everyone knows. It was no secret they would blow CC Sabathia and Gerrit Cole away.

And on the flip side, think about their Bryce Harper and Manny Machado pursuits, or their Carlos Correa and Corey Seager pursuits (non-pursuits, really). It was reported pretty much right away that the Yankees weren’t all that interested in Harper or Machado, or Correa or Seager. They did their due diligence, but that Sabathia/Cole level interest didn’t exist. Even Robbie Cano. The Yankees made it pretty clear they wouldn’t go all-out to re-sign him.

Dating back to Spring Training, the overall tone of Judge’s free agency is the Yankees want to bring him back and are willing to pay him handsomely. At the time, that $213.5M extension offer in Spring Training looked mighty good. It wasn’t insultingly low by any means. Free agency is unpredictable and another team could gum up the works with a monster offer, but my sense is the Yankees want to keep Judge the same way they wanted to sign Cole and Sabathia.

Arenado doesn’t use opt out

Remember the “the Yankees will pass on Harper and Machado because they really want Nolan Arenado next offseason” rumors? Good times. Anyway, Arenado declined to use his opt out clause and will remain with the Cardinals, the team announced over the weekend. He has five years and $144M remaining on his deal, covering his age 32-36 seasons. Anthony Rendon will make $188M during the same five-year chunk of his career, so St. Louis is getting good value.

Arenado had another brilliant season, slashing .293/.358/.533 (151 wRC+) with 42 doubles, 30 home runs, an 11.6% strikeout rate, and his typical all-world defense. This was Arenado’s tenth MLB season and he’s likely to win his tenth Gold Glove. Only Judge (+10.6 WAR) had a higher WAR than Arenado (+7.9 WAR) among full-time position players in 2022.

With Arenado taking himself off the market, third base is a wasteland in free agency. Here is the complete list of free agent non-first base infielders who were worth at least +1 WAR in 2022:

1. Dansby Swanson: +6.6 WAR
2. Trea Turner: +6.4 WAR
3. Xander Bogaerts: +6.1 WAR (opt out clause)
4. Carlos Correa: +4.4 WAR (opt out clause)
5. Elvis Andrus: +3.5 WAR (!?)
6. Brandon Drury: +3.0 WAR
7. Kolten Wong: +2.5 WAR (club option)
8. Justin Turner: +2.4 WAR (club option)
9. Jace Peterson: +2.2 WAR
10. Tim Anderson: +2.0 WAR (club option)
11. Jean Segura: +1.7 WAR (club option)
12. Josh Harrison: +1.4 WAR (club option)
13. Adam Frazier: +1.1 WAR
14. Jose Iglesias: +1.0 WAR

A few of those club options will get picked up (Anderson for sure, maybe Turner and Wong too), so the free agent infielder crop is not as deep as that list makes it appear. The top four are studs. Decent chance one or two of the other guys has to settle for a minor league contract though.

I would like the Yankees to get rid of Josh Donaldson but I also acknowledge replacing him won’t be easy. The Yankees could stick DJ LeMahieu at third base, but he’s had some trouble staying healthy late the last two seasons. Oswaldo Cabrera? Okay, but I like him better as a tenth man who plays 4-5 times a week at different positions. Given Turner’s age, the case can be made Drury and Peterson will be the top free agent third basemen, and that’s a yikes.

Senga to opt out, seek MLB contract

Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks righty Kodai Senga will indeed use his opt out clause and seek a contract with an MLB team, he told the Kyodo News. I mentioned this might happen back in August. Fukuoka refused to post Senga earlier in his career and now he has enough service time to qualify for international free agency. He doesn’t need to be posted.

"I'm absolutely going to file for free agency,” Senga told the Kyodo News. “I've been saying I'm going to do it for the past six years, so this represents nothing new for me.”

Senga, 30 in January, had a 1.89 ERA (2.27 FIP) with a 27.4% strikeout rate in 148 innings this season. That’s in a league with a 3.16 ERA and a 20.1% strikeout rate. Here’s a snippet of Jason Coskrey’s recent scouting report (subs. req’d) (here’s video):

Senga’s ghost forkball remains a premier pitch and pairing it with his fastball makes it even nastier for opposing batters. He has a slider, a cutter and a two-seamer, and will mix in a curveball. If Tomoyuki Sugano isn’t the best pitcher in Japan then it’s probably Senga.

When he’s healthy, Senga is an MLB pitcher. He’s Japan’s premier strikeout pitcher and his forkball is a weapon in any league.

I’ve seen some of the pitch data on Senga and the fastball is elite in terms of average velocity (96 mph), vertical break, and approach angle. The numbers are on par with fastball mavens like Felix Bautista, Robbie Ray, and Alex Vesia. Senga’s forkball (aka the Ghost Fork) had a whiff rate over 50% this season, and that’s in a league that emphasizes contact.

Senga’s age will prevent him from getting a Masahiro Tanaka contract (Tanaka was only 25 when he came over). Yusei Kikuchi was two years younger when he came over than Senga is now, but he wasn’t as accomplished, and he fetched four years and $56M guaranteed. I could see that being the starting point for Senga. That’s Jon Gray’s contract with the Rangers.

There are already rumblings the Cubs will be in on Senga and I buy it. They’ve aggressively pursued top Japanese players over the years. Chicago signed Kosuke Fukudome back in the day, finished second in the Yu Darvish bidding, were a finalist for Tanaka, and they signed Seiya Suzuki last offseason. I would expect the Padres pitching needy Rangers, two other teams often involved in the Japanese market, to pursue Senga as well.

The Yankees have been conservative in their pursuit of Japanese players since Kei Igawa blew up in their faces. They went all-out to sign Tanaka and were prepared to do what it took to sign Shohei Ohtani before he shot them down, and that’s really it. Their bid for Darvish was relatively low and they never made much of an effort to sign guys like Kikuchi and Kenta Maeda.

Jameson Taillon is a free agent and the Yankees could seek an upgrade over Domingo German as the No. 5 starter, and gosh, rolling the dice on someone like Senga sure would be neat. I don’t get the sense it’ll happen though. I think the Yankees are comfortable with their pitching and will focus more on upgrading an offense that was too thin for large chunks of the season. We’ll see where this goes. Senga is interesting and you can always fit a guy like this onto the roster.

Yoshida wants to be posted

Orix Buffaloes outfielder Masataka Yoshida has said he wants to be posted, according to Gaijin Baseball. Orix just won the Japan Series on Sunday and haven’t yet said whether they will post their best hitter. Yoshida hit two home runs in Game 5 of the Japan Series last week, including a mammoth three-run walk-off bomb with Orix down a run (video).

Yoshida, 29, hit .336/.449/.559 (201 wRC+) with 21 homers this season. He has some pop (old pal Sung Min Kim notes Yoshida was second in Japan in hard-hit rate this year) but is mostly a bat control/on-base guy. Yoshida hasn’t hit under .300 since his rookie season in 2016 or under .320 since 2017. Since 2019, he has a 14.1% walk rate and a 7.8% strikeout rate. That is not a typo.

People who know about this stuff tell me Yoshida’s power mostly comes when he picks a spot to ambush a first-pitch fastball, or sells out in a hitter’s count. His game is centered around being a super elite bat-to-ball guy who can barrel up anything anywhere in the strike zone, and drive the ball to all fields. And gosh, couldn’t the Yankees use a lefty bat exactly like that?

The downside with Yoshida is he’s on the smaller side (listed at 5-foot-8 and 176 lbs.) and if the power doesn’t show up against MLB velocity, he could become an Adam Frazier type real quick. A guy who puts the bat on the ball but doesn’t get great results with all that contact. Also, Yoshida is an okay defender who fits best in left field (or the smaller right field in Yankee Stadium).

The Cubs gave Seiya Suzuki a five-year, $85M contract last offseason. He struck out more than Yoshida in Japan, but he similarly walked more than he struck out and hit .300+ annually, plus he regularly topped 30 homers too. Suzuki hit a .262/.336/.433 (116 wRC+) with 14 homers in 111 games around an injury this past season and that’s really, really good for Year 1 in MLB.

Of course, Suzuki played this season (his “rookie” season) at age 27 and Yoshida will turn 30 next summer, so he can forget five years at $17M per. The Cubs paid Suzuki so handsomely because they were buying peak years in bulk. The posting fee is based on the size of the player’s contract nowadays. Here is the fee structure:

• Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of contract value
• Contract worth $25M to $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of amount over $25M
• Contract worth more than $50M: $9.275M plus 15% of amount over $50M

$50M seems like a convenient threshold, doesn’t it? A team could give Yoshida, say, three years at $14M or $15M a year and stay away from the highest posting fee rate. That’s Avisail Garcia and A.J. Pollock money. Is it Andrew Benintendi money too? I think Benintendi gets more, and all things being equal, I’d rather have the younger known quantity in Benintendi over Yoshida.

Like I said earlier, the Yankees have only gone after the very best of the best Japanese players (25-year-old Tanaka and 23-year-old Ohtani). The Yankees badly need a productive high contact lefty (productive is the key term there, I don’t want a lefty Isiah Kiner-Falefa just for the sake of contact) and maybe Yoshida can be that guy. Assuming he gets even posted, of course.

Tigers will post Fujinami

The Hanshin Tigers will post hard-throwing righty Shintaro Fujinami, reports the Kyodo News. The posting period runs from Nov. 1st to Dec. 15th. NPB teams can post their players at any point in that time frame, then the player has 30 days to negotiate with MLB clubs. There’s no word on when exactly Fujinami will be posted, but the sooner the better.

Fujinami, 28, is an exceptionally hard-thrower, regularly hitting 100 mph even while working as a starter. I haven’t seen his pitch data, but the internet tells me Fujinami also throws a splitter and a cutter/slider hybrid (here’s video). This season he threw 107.1 innings with a 2.77 ERA (2.71 FIP) with 26.2% strikeouts and 8.2% walks across 19 starts and six relief appearances.

From what I gather Fujinami is an A.J. Burnett/Michael Pineda type as a dude with a huge arm but also inconsistent results that border on maddening (last year Fujinami had a 4.21 ERA and a 15.0% walk rate). Texas gave Kohei Arihara two years and $6.2M two years ago. The Red Sox gave Hirokazu Sawamura two years and $3M. Is that Fujinami’s range? I dunno.

4. A Donaldson and Hicks bad contract swap. In the coming days and weeks I intend to look at potential trades involving Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks, including bad contract for bad contract swaps. Those are everyone’s favorite, right? This guy I don’t want and who makes too much money for that guy you don’t want and who makes too much money.

While surfing through payroll pages last week I stumbled across a bad contact for bad contract swap that is worth some words here. The trade: Donaldson and Hicks for Patrick Corbin. The money matches up and you can squint your eyes and see baseball benefits for both teams. Let’s talk this ridiculous, never gonna happen so why are we even bothering idea through, shall we?

The money

Like I said, the money matches up. It matches up so well it almost seems like a message from the bad contract gods. Here’s what the Yankees owe Donaldson and Hicks:

• 2023: Donaldson $21M and Hicks $10.5M ($35M combined luxury tax hit)
• 2024: Donaldson $8M buyout and Hicks $9.5M ($10M combined luxury tax hit)
• 2025: Hicks $9.5M ($10M luxury tax hit)
• 2026: Hicks $1M buyout ($0M luxury tax hit)
• Total money: $59.5M spread across four (but really more like three) years

Now here’s what the Nationals owe Corbin:

• 2023: $24M ($29.5M luxury tax hit)
• 2024: $35M ($29.5M luxury tax hit)
• Total money: $59M spread across two years

The Yankees would consolidate three years worth of luxury tax hits into two years, and save $5.5M against the luxury tax payroll next year. That’s not a ton, but it’s nothing either. The inflated charge in 2024 (an additional $19.5M, blah) then gives way to a clean slate in 2025, at least as far as Donaldson and Hicks are concerned.

For the Nationals, a team that is nowhere close to the luxury tax threshold while they rebuild, they spread two years of salary across four (but really more like three) years to ease the burden. The team is for sale and the lower you can make payroll in the short-term, the more attractive it is to potential buyers. Either way, it’s $59M-ish in bad money. It just gets distributed a little differently, and perhaps in a way that is more favorable for each team.

Why would the Yankees do it?

I could see Donaldson returning next season but not Hicks. He is persona non grata in the organization and the Yankees tried to unload him at last year’s trade deadline, last offseason, and then again at this year’s trade deadline. Those efforts will continue this winter. So, part of the motivation for this trade would be shedding a player (two, really) who isn’t wanted.

As for Corbin, he’s been the worst starting pitcher in baseball the last three seasons, pitching to a 5.82 ERA (4.97 FIP) in 390 innings since 2020. His strikeout (18.0%) and barrel (11.0%) rates this season were terrible. Corbin has been so bad that the Nationals skipped a few of his starts down the stretch this year even though they’re not exactly flush with alternatives.

There are two reasons to buy into Corbin as a worthwhile bad contract target. First, his slider is still an above-average pitch that had a 36.9% whiff rate in 2022 and has had a 39.2% whiff rate since 2020. The MLB average on sliders is 35.0%. There’s still one really good pitch here (and last year Devan Fink explained how that one good pitch could possibly be made ever better).

This is an oversimplification, but the Yankees’ thing is picking up relievers with a dominant pitch and telling them to throw that pitch a lot. Think Clay Holmes’ sinker, Wandy Peralta’s changeup, etc. Pick up Corbin, put him in the bullpen, and tell him to spam hitters with that slider, and see what’s what. Maybe he becomes a Lucas Luetge clone? Wouldn’t be a bad outcome.

And second, the Nationals are not good at making players better. Their only recent minor league player development success stories are elite talents like Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg, and Trea Turner. They are not a team that brings in a Holmes and transforms him, or coaches up a Gio Urshela, or unlocks a Nestor Cortes.

Even their 2019 World Series team, Washington’s good players were good either because they were tippy top prospects who lived up to their talent, or because they were already good when they arrived in Washington. The Nationals deserve credit for developing those highly regarded prospects and acquiring good players! But improving players through adjustments hasn't been their M.O.

The Yankees have demonstrated a knack for getting pitchers to level up and maybe they can work their magic with Corbin, and turn him into a slider monster out of the bullpen (or even help him become a competent back-end starter?). The Nationals have shown they're unable to do that these last three years. Maybe the Yankees can. Sometimes a change of scenery helps.

There’s also a roster component to this trade. Corbin takes up one roster spot. Hicks and Donaldson take up two. It’s two players who are unlikely to help you in a meaningful way for one player who is unlikely to help you in a meaningful way. Save a little luxury tax payroll space next year and also free up a roster spot. That would be the motivation for the Yankees.

Why would the Nationals do it?

This is the potential hangup. What do the Nationals want with Donaldson and Hicks? Corbin is really bad, but he at least has the World Series hero thing going for him, and the Nationals will need someone to eat innings during this rebuild. And hey, Corbin being bad helps the rebuild. He performs poorly, the team finishes lower in the standings, and they get a better draft pick.

That’s why I think the Yankees would have to kick in a prospect to make the trade worthwhile for the Nationals even though the money matches up. Would someone like, say, the out of options Deivi Garcia be enough? An injured Luis Gil? How much higher do you go if you’re the Yankees? It’s a free prospect for Washington. They’re not taking on money or anything. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees would be trading a prospect for a roster spot.

I suppose the Nationals could turn around and flip Donaldson and/or Hicks elsewhere, but that won’t be easy, and it’s not like they’re going to fetch big returns anyway. If I were the Nationals, I’d want a prospect in a Donaldson and Hicks for Corbin swap. Unless ownership demands I find a way to spread that money across more years, the straight 2-for-1 trade isn’t enticing enough.

Does it make sense?

Kick in a good enough prospect and sure, it makes sense for the Nationals. Corbin’s innings can be easily replaced by a non-roster signing (Tommy Milone? Vince Velasquez?), and it’s not like Donaldson and Hicks would block young players. Washington played Maikel Franco at third base last year. Their primary left fielder was Yadiel Hernandez, a 34-year-old rookie.

For the Yankees, how much the trade makes sense depends how much you believe in their ability to turn Corbin into something useful, and how much you value the money shuffling and the extra roster spot. The trade amounts to this:

• Yankees get: A bad pitcher, an extra roster spot, $5.5M in luxury tax savings in 2023, $10M in luxury tax saving in 2025.
• Yankees give up: Two bad position players, $19.5M in luxury tax space in 2024, and a prospect.

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement changed the way luxury tax hits are calculated after a trade. In the past, the luxury tax hit remained the average annual value of the player’s contract no matter how much actual money he was owed. Now the luxury tax hit is recalculated to reflect the actual money left on the contract.

That rule really hurts with a potential Corbin trade. His six-year, $140M contract carries a $23.3M average annual value. The backloaded nature of the contract means he would now come with a $29.5M luxury tax hit after a trade. That extra $6.2M in luxury tax savings would have been really desirable for the Yankees. The new rule takes it away though. Alas.

This Donaldson and Hicks for Corbin thing is just a half-baked idea I stumbled upon. I expect the Yankees to pursue trades for Donaldson and especially Hicks, but I think they’re more likely to attach a prospect(s) to each player to dump the salary than a straight bad contact for bad contract swap. Donaldson and Hicks for Corbin kinda sorta maybe makes sense and is also so very unlikely to happen.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees have given the White Sox permission to interview bench coach Carlos Mendoza for their managerial opening, reports Jon Heyman. This is the second time Mendoza has interviewed for a managerial job (also the Red Sox after 2020) and he’s the second Yankees coach to interview for a managerial job this offseason (also Luis Rojas and the Marlins). The White Sox are difficult to predict because you never know when owner Jerry Reinsdorf will go off on his own and hire one of his buddies (they interviewed Ozzie Guillen recently), but Mendoza’s in the running, and if he gets it, Aaron Boone will need a new bench coach. The Yankees could elevate assistant hitting coach Hensley Meulens, who served as bench coach with the Giants (2018-19) and Mets (2020). Something to worry about only when it becomes something to worry about … Silver Slugger finalists were announced last week, and while I usually would ignore this, I am compelled to note DJ LeMahieu is up for a Silver Slugger at second base and as a super utility guy. He could win two in one year! It has happened before: J.D. Martinez won Silver Sluggers in the outfield and at DH in 2018. Just ridiculous. Anyway, it won’t happen because Jose Altuve will win at second base, but it’s still kinda silly. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton are Silver Slugger finalists as well … One more quick awards note: The MLBPA announced finalists for their awards last week. Usually they announce three finalists for each award but there are only two for the AL Most Outstanding Player: Judge and Shohei Ohtani. No other player received as much as 5% of the vote. Those two were so far ahead of everyone else in the players’ voting that they didn’t bother to list a third finalist. Judge is up for the Player of the Year award too, which is a single award covering both leagues. He’s up against Ohtani and Paul Goldschmidt for that. Also, Matt Carpenter’s up for the AL Comeback Player of the Year (but not Luis Severino). So LeMahieu might win two Silver Sluggers and Judge was so great his peers couldn’t come up with a non-Ohtani challenger as the AL’s best player. Bit of a weird year in the award races … And finally, the MLB World Tour: Korea Series has been canceled. MLB was all set to send players to Korea for four exhibition games against a team of All-Stars from the Korea Baseball Organization later this month, but MLB pulled the plug over “ongoing contractual issues with the event promoter.” Baseball reporters in Korea have indicated tickets weren’t selling well. MLB set prices at roughly $40 for bleacher seats and $300 for field level. If you’re going to charge Yankee Stadium ticket prices, you better make sure Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole are going, not a team headlined by Sal Perez and Randy Arozarena. MLB backing out because they weren’t going to make enough money is 100% believable. Also, Domingo German committed to the event, so at least one Yankee would have been there. Too bad. Would have been a good chance to showcase MLB talent overseas and give fans a little baseball in mid November.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)