Thoughts before Game 1 of the 2022 ALCS

This place again. (Getty)

The ALDS finally concluded Tuesday night in the Bronx and the ALCS begins Wednesday night in Houston. The Yankees are right back at it with Game 1 against the Astros. All seven ALCS games are on TBS. Here are the start times:

• Game 1: 7:37pm ET
• Game 2: 7:37pm ET
• Game 3: 5:07pm ET
• Game 4: 7:07pm ET
• Game 5: 4:07pm ET
• Game 6: 6:07pm ET
• Game 7: 7:37pm ET

There is no off-day after Game 5 and the 4pm ET start is to allow travel from New York back to Houston. It’s potentially seven games in eight days. Here are a few quick thoughts a few hours before the ALCS gets underway.

1. ALCS roster. The Yankees and Astros had to file their ALCS rosters with the league office Wednesday morning and soon thereafter they were announced to the public. We knew the Yankees were going to make at least one roster change given Aaron Hicks’ season-ending knee injury. They made several other changes as well. Here’s the ALCS roster (here’s Houston’s):

Hicks is off, and so are Marwin Gonzalez and Lucas Luetge. Frankie Montas, Oswald Peraza, and Greg Weissert replace them. The Yankees are going with 13 pitchers in the ALCS after using 12 in the ALDS, which makes sense because it’s a longer series with just one off-day, plus the Astros are more likely to grind your pitchers down than the Guardians. I get it.

A few things about the roster. One, I’m not convinced Peraza will play shortstop even with Kiner-Falefa getting benched in ALDS Games 4 and 5. The Yankees continue to support Kiner-Falefa – “He'll play a big role moving for us,” Aaron Boone said after Game 5 – and have stuck with him all year long. Maybe he’ll get benched when the Yankees are facing elimination again?

That said, at least now there’s an actual shortstop on the roster. Cabrera is the man, though he isn’t someone a championship contender wants at short full-time. Neither is Gonzalez. Peraza is a legitimate shortstop who might not be a zero with the bat. I wish we would’ve seen more of him in September, but we didn’t. I hope he plays (as in starts) in the ALCS but I’m not 100% sure it happens.

Two, dropping Marwin strongly suggests Stanton and/or Carpenter will play left field in the ALCS. I’m not sure which one is more physically up to it (Stanton’s Achilles still isn’t 100%), but it’s petal to the metal time, and there’s not much ground to cover in left field at Minute Maid Park. It’s a good spot to hide a range-deficient left fielder (imagine Stanton or Carpenter in left with all Cleveland's bloops? oy vey). My ideal ALCS lineup:

1. 2B Gleyber Torres
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
4. LF Giancarlo Stanton
5. DH Matt Carpenter
6. 3B Josh Donaldson
7. CF Harrison Bader
8. C Jose Trevino
9. SS Oswaldo Peraza

Maybe that’s not the exact 1-9 order, but those are the nine names. That leaves Cabrera, Higashioka, Kiner-Falefa, and Locastro on the bench. I guess that means Cabrera is the left field defensive replacement? Locastro’s speed is too valuable in a pinch-runner role, plus Cabrera would not be a total zero offensively in the cleanup spot.

Actually, now that I think about it, Carpenter in left field is the way to go. Stanton at DH keeps his bat in the lineup the entire game. Carpenter rules, but he’s had two in-game at-bats in the last two months (and he struck out both times), and is less likely to contribute than Giancarlo. Yeah, I think Carpenter goes to left so Stanton doesn't have to be placed in the late innings. Either way, I think one of them will play left field in Houston. Maybe at Yankee Stadium too.

Three, I’m a bit surprised the Yankees dropped Luetge but also not really. He didn’t warm up even once in the ALDS, and while the Astros have a lefty lane in the middle of their lineup (more on that in a bit), they’re not the kinda lefties you want Luetge facing. If the ALCS gets to the point where we’re lamenting Luetge not being on the roster, something’s gone terribly wrong.

Four, Boone has been noncommittal about Marinaccio’s status for the ALCS – “Potentially,” has been his go-to answer whenever he was asked whether Marinaccio was an option – and his shin must not be 100% if he's not on the roster. He’s better than Weissert and functions as a second lefty with that nasty changeup. The Yankees missed Marinaccio in the ALDS and will miss him in the ALCS too. Bummer.

And five, I really hope Montas is healthy and can do more than mop up. He hasn’t appeared in a game since Sept. 16th, so there’s no way he stretched out, but even 2-3 innings at a time would be helpful. In short bursts with his usual velocity, Montas and his sinker/splitter could be a real weapon. Maybe even a high leverage option. It’s a weird dynamic. I want to see what Montas can contribute but I’ll also be nervous whenever he enters a game. Fingers crossed.

So those are the 26 players the Yankee will take into the ALCS. They added a 13th pitcher and an actual shortstop, and in the process removed two outfielders (well, one outfielder and one utility guy). That points to Stanton or Carpenter in left field. That’s the biggest takeaway. Next is Montas joining the roster and his potential role as a multi-inning reliever. That would be a huge help during this best-of-seven series against a powerhouse offense.

2. ALCS x-factors. On June 20th, the Yankees were 50-17 and had a season high 8.5-game lead over the Astros for the best record in the American League (and all of baseball). From that day forward Houston played 15.5 games better than the Yankees, and they finished the season with the league’s best record by seven games. It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish, etc. etc.

The season series was one-sided. The Astros went 5-2 and the Yankees didn’t take a single at-bat with the lead in the seven games. Their two wins were Aaron Judge walk-off hits. Houston threw a combined no-hitter at Yankee Stadium on June 25th and at one point that series they held the Yankees hitless in 16 consecutive innings. The Yankees tied the 1973 Athletics and 1981 Dodgers for the longest hitless streaks in the Expansion Era (since 1961).

Plot twist: The 1973 A’s and 1981 Dodgers won the dang World Series. Goes to show even championship teams can have wretched 16-inning spans sprinkled in throughout the season. What happened in June, or in 2017 or 2019, doesn’t matter this week. It’s a clean slate between two very good teams. The AL’s two best both in terms of talent and regular season record.

"The challenge is we're facing a great team," Aaron Boone said after the ALDS Game 5 win Tuesday night. "As far as the quick turnaround, we'll be fine. I mean, that's baseball. We do that all the time. You know, we'll walk in there with some confidence. We know they are a great team and rested and ready. We look forward to the challenge."

The Astros are excellent but not unbeatable. Even in the ALDS, the Mariners took a lead into the ninth inning in Game 1 and threw 17 scoreless innings in Game 3 before Houston finally broke through. A sweep is a sweep, but it wasn’t a “the Astros dominated them from start to finish” sweep. Houston has had their way with the Yankees the last few years but they aren’t invincible.

I think my ALDS x-factors held up well. The Yankees threw fastballs by Cleveland’s hitters in big spots, they neutralized the running game (only three steals allowed in five games), and hitters other than Judge made an impact (Harrison Bader, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, etc.). With that in mind, here are a few quickie x-factors heading into the ALCS.

Shutting down Altuve

Jose Altuve went 0 for the ALDS. In the three games against the Mariners he went 0-for-16 with a walk, including an 0-for-8 in the 18-inning Game 3. Never before did Altuve go more than 0-for-6 in a game, regular season or postseason. R.J. Anderson had a great post detailing how Seattle shut Altuve down. Long story short: they busted him inside with sinkers. The pitch locations:

If jamming Altuve up with sinkers (high velocity sinkers, specifically) is the way to shut him down, t would appear to bode well for the Yankees, who have built most of their pitching staff around the sinker. Think about the late innings in particular with Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Lou Trivino. They have the kinda power sinkers that can chew up bats when thrown inside.

Altuve had a terrific regular season, hitting .300/.387/.533 (164 wRC+) with 28 homers, and this 0-for-ALDS thing has “5-for-5 in Game 1 of the ALCS” written all over it. You know how it goes. The Mariners had success against Altuve and did it in a way the Yankees should be able to replicate. The Astros are good enough to win even when Altuve has a quiet series, but keep him quiet, and the Yankees’ chances of a pennant go up.

Keeping Pena off base

Yordan Alvarez is a monster and he’s going to get his. The Mariners ran into trouble in the ALDS because they couldn’t keep rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena, the No. 2 hitter in front of Alvarez, off base in key situations. Consider:

• Game 1: Pena dunked a two-out, two-strike single to center in the ninth inning. That kept the game alive and set Alvarez up for the walk-off three-run homer.
• Game 2: Pena reached base three times, including a single with two outs in the sixth inning. That extended the inning and Yordan hit the go-ahead two-run homer as the next batter.

Pena, the 25-year-old rookie tasked with replacing Carlos Correa, hit .253/.289/.426 (102 wRC+) during the regular season. The 22 homers are good. The 3.9% walk rate and .289 OBP are bad. Pena is prone to chasing sliders away in particular. Alvarez is going to hurt the Yankees at some point. It’s inevitable. Keep Pena (and Altuve) off base, and Yordan won’t hurt you quite as much.

Wandy’s lane

Speaking of Alvarez, he is a neutral splits guy and has been his entire career. Look at this:

Alvarez vs. RHP in 2022: .299/.404/.627 (186 wRC+) with 18.7 K% and 37.4 GB%
Alvarez vs. LHP in 2022: .321/.411/.586 (183 wRC+) with 19.3 K% and 42.4 GB%

Alvarez vs. RHP in career: .293/.386/.595 (165 wRC+) with 23.0 K% and 34.7 GB%
Alvarez vs. LHP in career: .302/.381/.582 (163 wRC+) with 21.5 K% and 44.7 GB%

Yordan is incredibly productive no matter who’s on the mound. The only place the platoon split shows up is in the ground ball rate, and ground balls don’t go over the fence. Barring a Nestor Cortes in relief situation, Wandy Peralta is the only lefty in the ALCS bullpen, and he’s run a 56.1% ground ball rate since joining the Yankees. Wandy vs. Alvarez will be an ALCS subplot.

Furthermore, the middle of Houston’s lineup is Alvarez-Alex Bregman-Kyle Tucker. It’s a similar left-right-lane as Josh Naylor-Oscar Gonzalez-Andres Gimenez, only way better. Tucker has a sizable platoon split (142 wRC+ vs. RHP and 102 wRC+ vs. LHP) and should see a southpaw in big spots. Alvarez-Bregman-Tucker will be Wandy’s lane. He became the first pitcher ever to appear in all five games of a Division Series. Can he appear in all seven ALCS games too?

The bottom of the lineup

Similar to the Yankees, the bottom of the Astros lineup is lacking. The 1-2-3-4-5-6 hitters can all hurt you, but the 7-8-9 spots go to Trey Mancini, the center fielder du jour (Mauricio Dubon or Chas McCormick), and Martin Maldonado. Mancini’s a good player, but he hit .176/.258/.364 (77 wRC+) after the trade and went hitless in the ALDS. The bottom of the order is pretty weak.

Shutting those 7-8-9 hitters down has to be a gimme each time through the lineup. The top six hitters will be tough to navigate. Let the bottom of the order get in on the act and forget it. The Astros will be damn near unbeatable. With the longer series (and just one off-day), I imagine the Yankees are looking at 7-8-9 as a possible lane for Miguel Castro and Greg Weissert. Point is, make sure the bases are empty when the lineup turns over. Can’t let 7-8-9 beat you.

Taillon doing more than filling in

Because of the ALCS schedule and the way the rotation lines up, Gerrit Cole will make only one start on full rest in the series, and if he makes a second start, it won’t come until Game 7. Cortes will only make one start (I imagine he will pitch in relief at some point). Jameson Taillon is starting Game 1 and that makes him the starter most likely to make two ALCS starts.

Getting three innings from Taillon and then turning it over to the bullpen feels like not enough. The Yankees will need actual starts from him – 5-6 innings of quality work – to have their best chance to win the series. Three and fly could work, but the more you lean on the bullpen, the more likely it is the relievers get exposed (and tired). Getting competitive starts and length from Taillon may not be imperative, but it is the kinda thing that could swing the series in the Yankees’ favor.

(Taillon faced the Astros once during the regular season and it went terribly: 5.2 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HR on June 23rd.)

Houston’s power arms

Might as well close with the obvious: Framber Valdez is the only lefty on an Astros pitching staff that is otherwise power bat-missing righties top to bottom. The lowest regular season average fastball velocity among Houston’s go-to righties is Jose Urquidy at 93.5 mph, and he’s pretty much the emergency long man. Most of their guys average – again, average – 95+ mph.

The Mariners hung a six spot on Justin Verlander in four innings in ALDS Game 1, so it can be done. That said, hard-throwing righties remain the Yankees’ kryptonite. When they struggle – when they go 16 straight innings without a hit – it is invariably because the opposite team shoves righty after righty after righty down their throat. Overcoming the right-on-right mismatch is a must to win the ALCS. There’s no way around it.

"My ultimate goal is to go out there and win a World Series, and that’s a team that’s kind of always been in the way,” Judge told Erik Boland after ALDS Game 5. “They’ve got a great ballclub, so you kind of have to go through Houston to get to your ultimate goal of winning a World Series. I’m looking forward to it”

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