Thoughts after Game 5 of the 2022 ALDS gets rained out

Shoulda splurged for a roof, Hal. (Getty)

UPDATE: The Guardians will indeed start Civale in Game 5 on Tuesday, not Bieber on short rest, according to Zack Meisel. Also, I goofed on some of the days rest math in the schedule section below. That's been corrected (though it doesn't change much).

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So we wait one more day. Following a two and a half hour rain delay during which fans at Yankee Stadium were not given a single update, Game 5 of the ALDS was postponed Monday night. Way to treat your paying customers, MLB. The league makes all weather-related decisions in the postseason, and they hoped a playable window would open up around 9pm ET, but no dice.

The winner-take-all Game 5 will now be played Tuesday at 4pm ET. Winner gets on a plane to Houston, loser goes home. The Yankees and Guardians will wrap up the ALDS a few hours before the Padres and Phillies begin the NLCS. It’s the first time in MLB history two postseason rounds will overlap. Here are a few quick thoughts after the Game 5 postponement.

1. Nestor on short rest. Nestor Cortes, not Jameson Taillon, will start Game 5, the Yankees announced after the rainout. He’ll be on three days’ rest following his Game 2 start. Cortes was going to be available out of the bullpen Monday night. Now he’ll start Tuesday with Taillon available in relief. The right call, right? I like Jamo, but the Yankees should ride or die with Nasty Nestor.

Remember, the original plan coming into the ALDS was Gerrit Cole in Game 1, Cortes in Game 2, Luis Severino in Game 3, Cole on normal rest in Game 4, and Cortes on short rest in Game 5. The Game 2 postponement threw a wrench into that, then the Game 5 postponement restored it. It will be Nestor on short rest in Game 5 as originally planned, just on a different day.

Generally speaking, the effects of starting on short rest show up at the end of the start, not at the beginning. Guys on short rest typically look like themselves for 3-4 innings, then they hit a wall earlier than usual. Say around 75 pitches rather than 100. In a winner-take-all game, the bullpen is always on high alert, but don’t be shocked if Cortes is out of the game in the fourth inning.

2. Bieber on short rest? The Guardians have not yet announced their Game 5 starter. It going to be Aaron Civale, a homer-prone righty the Yankees knocked around twice during the regular season (10 runs in nine innings), on Monday. Now they have the option of starting Shane Bieber on short rest. I gotta think Cleveland is seriously considering it.

Two things about that. One, the Guardians have handled Bieber very carefully since last year’s shoulder injury. He made 17 of his 31 regular season starts on extra rest. And two, Monday afternoon Terry Francona told Zack Meisel that Civale would start Game 5 even if it got rained out. Will he stick to that? I’d give the ball to Bieber with the season on the line, but they know him and his medicals and what he’s capable of more than anyone. We’ll see.

3. Bullpen status. Wow did the rainout come at a good time for the bullpen. No four straight days for Wandy Peralta, no back-to-back days for post-shoulder injury Clay Holmes, another day for Jonathan Loaisiga to rest up, etc. The Yankees and their bullpen badly needed a day. Now we can anticipate 4-6 outs from Loaisiga and Peralta in Game 5, with a rested Holmes. Hooray.

Also, Cole might be available. He told Aaron Boone he was available Monday, and while Boone said he was hesitant to use him, he didn’t rule it out either. Cole threw 110 pitches in seven innings in Game 4 on Sunday. Coming out of the bullpen the day after making a start is extremely rare but not unprecedented (remember Randy Johnson in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series?). Ideally the Yankees would avoid Cole in Game 5, but if push comes to shove, he could be out there.

“Yeah, I'd be hesitant. Yeah,” Boone said about using Cole in Game 5 prior to the postponement. “He's already told me he's available. So I'd be a little hesitant to use him, but you never know where the day takes you.”

4. ALCS schedule. The Yankees have to win Game 5 before we can worry about the ALCS, but holy crud, the schedule will be a nightmare if the Yankees do win Game 5. Look at this:

• Tuesday, Oct. 18th: ALDS Game 5 in New York
• Wednesday, Oct. 19th: ALCS Game 1 in Houston
• Thursday, Oct. 20th: ALCS Game 2 in Houston
• Friday, Oct. 21st: off-day!
• Saturday, Oct. 22nd: ALCS Game 3 in New York
• Sunday, Oct. 23rd: ALCS Game 4 in New York
• Monday., Oct. 24th: ALCS Game 5 in New York
• Tuesday, Oct. 25th: ALCS Game 6 in Houston
• Wednesday, Oct. 26th: ALCS Game 7 in Houston

There’s just that one off-day in the ALCS. Games 3-7 would be played on five consecutive days. You can thank the lockout and MLB cramming this new 12-team postseason format into 2022’s existing 10-team schedule for that. The Yankees had a Wild Card Series bye and still ran into one of the worst postseason schedules I can remember.

Also, let’s say the Yankees do win Game 5 on Tuesday. Who starts Game 1 of the ALCS? It has to be Taillon (or Domingo German), right? Either that or Severino and his injury history on short rest, in which case you then need to start Cole on short rest in Game 2, or start Taillon (or German) anyway.

I think the Yankees are best off starting Taillon (or German) in Game 1, then Severino on normal rest in Game 2. That sets up Cole to start Game 3 with extra rest (assuming he does not come out of the bullpen Tuesday) and Cortes to start Game 4 on normal rest after Tuesday’s start on short rest start. Got all that? What a crazy schedule. I hope the Yankees have to figure it all out.

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