Thoughts after Game 4 of the 2022 ALDS

Better than the last center fielder to wear No. 22. (Getty)

The Yankees live to play another day. Sunday night the Yankees avoided elimination with a Game 4 win that went about as well as we could have hoped. The offense puts points on the board early, Gerrit Cole was great, and the bullpen didn’t make things interesting. Game 5 on Monday night in the Bronx. Winner goes to Houston, loser goes on vacation.

Here are the updated ZiPS odds, which are based on Zach Plesac starting Game 5 rather than Aaron Civale for some reason:

That’s all well and good, but in a single game, who in the world knows? Anything can happen. A starting pitcher could wake up with the best curveball of the season or his worst command in a month. I’m just glad the game is in Yankee Stadium. No place I’d rather they play. Let’s get to the Game 4 thoughts.

1. Cole to Holmes to Peralta. You give Gerrit Cole $324M for games like Game 4. Season on the line, bullpen taxed, length and effectiveness badly needed. Cole did give up the #obligatoryhomer to Josh Naylor*, but otherwise limited the Guardians to one run on one of those stupid bloop rallies. They’re so annoying. This the kinda ball they play in the AL Central? smh

* Naylor did that rock the baby motion after the homer because “when he hits homers off people, he calls them his son,” Triston McKenzie told Mandy Bell. Whatever man. You do you. Naylor gets to do his rock the baby gesture and we get to laugh at him for doing it in a game his team was losing and eventually lost. “Yeah. Whatever. It’s cute,” Cole said about Naylor’s celebration.

Annoyingly, Cole did put the leadoff man on base in each of the first four innings, but strikeouts and double plays allowed him to navigate, and he retired 12 of the final 13 batters he faced. He let out a roar after striking out Will Brennan, who represented the tying run, to end the seventh inning. It was as animated as you’ll see Cole on the mound.

“His ability to mix, he used everything again tonight. I thought he was very much under control. Commanded his emotions well early on,” Aaron Boone said about Cole. “If he executed a pitch, he didn't, he had some -- I think the first three innings had the leadoff guy on base and didn't really flinch. Just kept making pitches all night long. And I thought was just really in command of the moment and it was obviously a huge start for us and for him. And to get us that deep in the game set us up real nice.”

In two ALDS starts Cole held Cleveland to three runs in 13.1 innings and struck out 16. The Guardians had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season, yet 16 strikeouts in two starts and a total of 37 misses on 112 swings, an astronomical 33%. Cleveland as a team missed with only 21% of their swings during the regular season. Cole missed plenty of bats in his two starts.

Cole threw 110 pitches in seven innings and props to Boone, I agreed with his bullpen usage every step of the way. Going batter-to-batter with Cole in the eighth was surely tempting, but I thought he emptied the tank in the seventh, and you all know I hate going batter-to-batter. Do that and you’re committing to 120+ pitches for Cole, or ensuring the reliever comes into a jam. Neither is ideal, so give Gerrit a pat on the behind and call it a day.

“I do that every time I pitch,” Cole said about emptying the tank. “I mean, whether he lets me or not, that's another deal. But, yeah, the consecutive mound visits (in the seventh) just was to slow down a bit and a little extra time for recovery.”

Clay Holmes did not pitch in Game 3 to much consternation and the win or go home nature of Game 4 all but guaranteed he’d get into the game at some point. He was first out of the bullpen to face the 9-1-2 hitters in the eighth inning. The top of the order was Jonathan Loaisiga’s lane in Games 1-3. Rather than use Loaisiga a third straight day, Holmes got the top of the order, and he pantsed Jose Ramirez to end the inning (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Good time for the first slider of the inning, eh? Holmes threw 16 straight sinkers to begin his outing before breaking out what was almost literally a back foot slider to strike out Ramirez. He was representing the tying run at the time. Also, after refusing to use him in Game 3 after he’d pitched in Game 2, Boone said Holmes will be available in Game 5 on Monday.

“I would, yes. Tomorrow, yeah, in a win-or-go home, yeah,” Boone said Sunday when asked whether he’d use Holmes in Games 4 and 5 on back-to-back days. Learned his lesson, I guess.

In the ninth Wandy Peralta became the first Yankee to pitch three consecutive days this season, and he got three quick outs on seven pitches. Just beautiful. His lane all series has been Naylor, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez. Wandy’s faced them in all four games and they are 0-for-12 with five strikeouts and a double play against him. That’s legendary matchup work.

“He was great. I mean, so efficient too,” Boone said about Magic Wandy’s Game 4 performance. “I was only going to go three hitters there with Wandy and didn't really want to get (Jonathan Loaisiga) in the game. So for him to just come in, just execute right from jump street was huge.”

Also, the lanes lined up perfectly for the Yankees. Cole got through the lineup three times, Holmes handled the top of the lineup, and Wandy got the lefties. The lanes fell neatly in separate innings. There was no “get the last out of one inning and the first two outs of the next inning” messiness. I love it when that happens. Cole & Co. were marvelous in a win or go home game.

“That was his last hitter,” Boone said about Cole facing Brennan. “... I was going to Clay there and then who knows? He gets a little bit longer, you start to get into the Naylor, Gonzalez potentially an inning earlier obviously, and it is just a different game. It kind of set up pretty well for us tonight and really thanks to Gerrit finishing off (Brennan) there.”

2. Bader’s taters. When the postseason began, I said Harrison Bader would have to go on a 2009 A-Rod run to validate the trade, and he’s doing it. Three homers in four games, including an important two-run shot in Game 4. It was a bomb too (video). Bader and Charlie Keller are the only players to hit three homers in their first four postseason games with the Yankees.

“It's been awesome,” Boone said about having Bader. “He worked so hard to get back. Worked his tail off rehabbing, showing up in a walking boot, and right away trying to just endear himself in the clubhouse and absolutely has. We got to see it there the last couple of weeks in the season when he was able to get back, just kind of what a gritty kind of gamer that he is. He loves to play the game. The power showing up here in the postseason for us has been big. He really stepped on that ball tonight. I mean, that's a bomb. It was huge for us to give us a little cushion there early.”

Bader’s defense has been weirdly bad this series (he took an awful route on Josh Naylor’s tenth inning double in Game 2 and bobbled a ball for an error in Game 4) but that won’t last. I mean, the homers probably won’t last either, but they happened and they helped win games and keep the Yankees alive. Here’s a fun leaderboard. These are Bader’s five hardest hit balls of 2022:

1. 109.8 mph (ALDS Game 1 homer)
2. 109.7 mph (ALDS Game 3 homer)
3. 109.6 mph (June 3rd single)
4. 109.1 mph (ALDS Game 4 homer)
5. 108.9 mph (May 13th ground out)

“I like to think I have it in my swing,” Bader joked about his ALDS power display. “No, I mean, you don't try to do anything. The only thing you really try to do is game plan properly. Once the game starts, any time you try to force an action, I found it doesn't really work well. For me, you get fast, you get sped up. And in a game where there is a lot of emotion behind every pitch, the only way to do it in my opinion is to slow it down. You know, the game slows down, it's a lot easier to execute your approach and what you're trying to do.”

The Yankees were always going to need more from Bader than great defense and it was fair to wonder how much he’d contribute at the plate given his track record. The bottom of the lineup is pretty grim most days and he’s been an impact hitter through four ALDS games. To win a World Series, you need guys to step up and do more than you expect, and Bader’s done it so far. Dare I say the Yankees won the trade?

“I wouldn't want it any other way. It is a must-win game,” Bader said about Game 5. “... It's going to be a great day. I can't wait to wake up tomorrow and get to it.”

3. Game 5 pitching plans. Jameson Taillon and Aaron Civale will be the Game 5 starters and the Guardians are in much, much better shape in the bullpen. Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, and Emmanuel Clase didn’t pitch in Games 3 and 4. They might be able to get six outs apiece in Game 5. I imagine Civale to Stephan to Karinchak to Clase is Terry Francona’s master plan.

The Yankees have leaned on their top relievers heavily. Miguel Castro, Domingo German, and Lucas Luetge are on the ALDS roster, and other than German tossing a few pitches in the early innings of Game 3, those guys haven’t even warmed up this series. Could we see them for the first time in Game 5? Given how much the other relievers have worked, maybe. At least they’ll have the element of surprise going for them, I guess.

“I feel like we have prepared for this moment,” Taillon said about starting Game 5. “Playing the AL East, facing the lineups we have faced, seems like playing in a Yankees uniform in Yankee Stadium every game is a big game. We're ready for it. It is a big opportunity.”

It’s all hands on deck in a winner-take-all game and I have no idea how far the Yankees plan to ride Taillon. They’ll just see how the game unfolds, right? Taillon has had a knack for putting together very strong starts in important games the last few weeks. Maybe he does it again in Game 5. Man, wouldn’t that be amazing? I’m not gonna lie though, Taillon’s low strikeout ways against Cleveland’s high contact lineup worries me a bit. Fingers crossed.

Wandy Peralta said he will be available in Game 5 – “We’re gonna go win tomorrow,” he said – though Aaron Boone cautioned they will wait and see how he feels. And even if Magic Wandy is available in Game 5, will he be compromised at all while pitching a fourth straight day*? Same with Clay Holmes. How will he bounce back on the second of back-of-back days after the shoulder injury? He says he’s good to go, but who really knows?

* If Peralta does get into Game 5, he would be only the second Yankee to pitch four straight days in the postseason, joining Paul Quantrill (2004 ALCS Games 3-6). I have no idea when a Yankee last pitched four straight days in the regular season. It might’ve been an old school lefty matchup guy like Mike Myers. I dunno.

Lou Trivino and Jonathan Loaisiga will be good to go in Game 5 after not pitching in Game 4 (though Loaisiga did warm up). I imagine Loaisiga will be asked to do the heaviest of lifting. He might have to get 5-6 outs at some point. You know who else will be available in Game 5? Nestor Cortes. Boone confirmed Nasty Nestor will be in the bullpen Monday night.

“We'll see. You know, we'll see,” Boone said when asked how much Cortes can give them. “Hopefully I won't have to use him. But he'll be ready to go and, you know, I'll put a limit on it.”

Monday would have been Nestor’s usual between-stars throw day following his Game 2 start Friday, so he won’t throw his bullpen session and will instead be available to pitch in the game. Teams do this kinda thing every postseason and Cortes has a ton of bullpen experience, so I don’t think it will be a big adjustment for him. Nothing seems to phase him anyway.

If Wandy’s not available, that lefty lane – Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez – could fall on Cortes. Luetge is on the roster, though Cortes ate up lefties this season (.110/.180/.159 and .161 wOBA with a 37.1% strikeout rate) and Luetge seems like a last resort kinda guy. When all the chips are on the table, I think Boone wants Nestor on the mound over Luetge. No question in my mind.

Civale allowed 10 runs in nine innings against the Yankees during the regular season and man, a few early runs to take some pressure off Taillon & Co. would be fantastic. You can’t expect a full-fledged blowout because that doesn’t happen in the postseason, plus Francona will go to Stephan or Karinchak early to avoid letting things get out of hand. Gotta expect a close game.

Just to sketch it out, the perfect world Game 5 pitching scenario could look like this:

• Innings 1-3: Taillon once through the order
• Inning 4: Clarke Schmidt against the top of the lineup
• Inning 5: Cortes or Peralta against the lefty lane
• Innings 6: Trivino against the bottom of the order
• Innings 7-8: Loaisiga against the top and middle of the order
• Inning 9: Holmes to clean it up

Maybe the Yankees piggyback German with Taillon and let him go through the lineup once as well, but I dunno. That feels like something you do in May or June, not in a win or go home game. That feels like a reasonable plan of attack, though things are never that neat, and others will have to pick up the slack somewhere. Maybe German, maybe Castro. In terms of rest, Cleveland’s bullpen is in way better shape, but that was true in Game 4 too, and that worked out okay.

“There is definitely going to be some added adrenaline and stuff when you step foot in Yankee Stadium,” Taillon said. “I will keep my day as normal as possible. Knowing that the fans are going to bring it over the top, I think it is important for us to just prepare. Do our research, do our studying, do our pregame work, and try to keep it mellow knowing that when you get out there, obviously, you know, we'll be excited for the moment with the fans going crazy and stuff.”

4. Yankees finally admit Kiner-Falefa mistake. It took 162 regular season games plus three more in the postseason for the Yankees to admit what was plainly obvious all season: Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a liability at shortstop. With the season on the line in Game 4, Kiner-Falefa was on the bench, and Oswaldo Cabrera made his first start at short since Aug. 28th.

“I just feel like in this series that he's been pressing a little bit out there, playing a little bit kind of not to make that mistake, and I think that's gotten in his way a little bit,” Aaron Boone said prior to Game 4. “I just felt like I needed to do this today. Still expect him to play a huge role for us in what we hope is a couple more weeks of baseball, but I felt like today it was something that was the right thing to do.”

Kiner-Falefa has had a rough ALDS defensively, botching the first ball hit his way in Game 1 and two more in Game 3, plus he threw to the wrong base on a bloop hit during that ninth inning rally (video). “I feel like I had an opportunity to come up with some key plays to help the team win and I didn’t come up with them. I feel like they were big runs that cost us the game tonight,” Kiner-Falefa told Brendan Kuty after Game 3. At least he’s self-aware.

The thing is, Kiner-Falefa didn’t suddenly get worse these last few days. He just continued to do the things we watched him do all season. His range is good! Kiner-Falefa can go a long way to get a ball. He just doesn’t complete the play often enough. A few weeks ago Statcast guru Mike Petriello had a good Twitter thread on the gap between Kiner-Falefa’s ability to get to the ball, and actually convert it into an out. The gap is too great to ignore.

The Yankees admitting they’re better with someone else at short is better late than never, and it only underscores how bad a decision it was to leave Oswaldo Peraza off the ALDS roster. That was a bad decision and so was not playing him more in September. Peraza hit when he played, yet he was on the active roster for 32 games and started only 14 (11 at short). The whole point of a stopgap was turning shortstop over to the kids when they were ready, but it didn’t happen.

“Real tough call. It was just a close call that in the end I made, but he was very close,” Boone told Randy Miller before the series about leaving Peraza off the roster. “I just think the versatility (of Marwin Gonzalez was more beneficial).”

Marwin has shown a lot of versatility in the ALDS. He’s seamlessly switched between chewing gum and munching on sunflower seeds, sometimes he sits on the bench, and other times he leans on the railing. That's veteran experience right there. Gonzalez hasn’t taken an at-bat or played an inning in the field, but hey, that’s part of being versatile. Sitting on the bench while better players play.

The shortstop situation has been FUBAR since the start, since the Yankees passed on all those free agents and went with Plan B (and let’s be real here, Plan B is being generous). Even if they were to advance, how do you put Kiner-Falefa back in the lineup? There’s no unringing the “we’re better off without you” bell. Boone said Cabrera will “probably” be back at shortstop in Game 5 and he has to be. The shortstop switch should’ve been made weeks ago.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Anthony Rizzo has been the Yankees’ best hitter in the ALDS but my man, no more outs on the bases please. He made a lot of them in September and I didn’t mind that because the games were (mostly) meaningless, plus it was good to get confirmation his back was okay with those slides. Getting thrown out on the bases in the first inning of an elimination game though? Come on dude … All these bloop hits to shallow left field are capital-A Annoying. The Yankees had Aaron Hicks shaded toward the gap on Jose Ramirez’s RBI bloop in the third inning …

… because Ramirez is an extreme pull hitter as a lefty (49.0% pull rate), so of course the bloop falls in no man’s land in shallow left. That ball had a weak 76.3 mph exit velocity and also a 20% catch probability given where Hicks was positioned. Just the dumbest, most ticky tack rallies. This is what the Guardians do, it’s death by a thousand bloops, and it’s so annoying … And finally, I’m gonna lay a prediction out there for Game 5: Yankees win when Karinchak melts down in the seventh inning, and Rizzo punches a two-run double into the right-center field gap. Let’s call it a 5-3 final score. It has been foretold.

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