Thoughts after Game 2 of the 2022 ALDS

More traffic on the bases, less watching from the dugout. (Getty)

The Yankees were never going to go undefeated in the postseason, but that doesn’t make the losses any easier to swallow. They let a winnable game slip away Friday afternoon and now the ALDS is a best-of-three series with the Guardians having home field advantage. Here are the updated ZiPS odds, which have finally been updated for Gerrit Cole starting Game 4:

Historically, the team that wins Game 3 when a best-of-five series is tied 1-1 has gone on to win the series 71% of the time. Saturday night is pretty, pretty important, but you didn’t need me to tell you that. Let’s get to the Game 2 thoughts.

1. Judge's 0-for-ALDS. Aaron Judge finished the regular season in a slump and it has continued into the ALDS. He is 0-for-8 with a walk and seven strikeouts in the two games. He missed with eight of his 13 swings in Game 2, an astronomical 62% whiff rate. This looks like the 2017 ALDS all over again, when Judge went 1-for-20 with 16 strikeouts against Cleveland.

"It happens. It's happened many times throughout my career here,” Judge said when asked about being booed in Game 2. “I gotta play better, that's what it comes down to. Didn't do the job tonight. Especially as the leadoff hitter, I have to get on base. I didn't do that tonight."

Judge went 8-for-37 (.216) with 15 strikeouts in his final 13 regular season games and there were times he was clearly pressing and missing hittable pitches. That’s not really the case now. The Guardians are pitching Judge tough and he’s not not taking competitive swings. Look at his foul balls and swings and misses in Games 1 and 2 (full-size image):

Not much in the happy zone. Judge isn’t missing hittable pitches. Cleveland is getting him out with well-executed pitches. You have to tip your cap to some extent, but there’s also a few fouls and whiffs on pitches out of the zone, so Judge is getting himself out as well. The ultra-disciplined hitter we watched all year is nowhere to be found.

“I don't mean to be rude, but if I did, I'm not sure I'd really want to share it. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense,” Terry Francona said when asked whether he knew Cleveland’s plan to attack Judge after Game 2. “I think sometimes, you know, hitters can't hit a button, and good as guys are, sometimes guys take 0-fers. Until you get through a series successfully, I don't think anybody is going to stand up here and pound our chest. He's too dangerous. We know that.”

Here’s another problem: Judge has batted with zero runners on base this series. Not one. The Guardians are doing a great job keeping traffic off the bases, and while a solo homer would still hurt, they are not allowing Judge to come to the plate with a chance to really change the game. His at-bats have been relatively low stress. Pitchers have faced him with margin of error.

The Yankees won Game 1 without Judge doing much and they can win the series with Judge stinking it up (I again refer you to the 2017 ALDS), but it will be difficult, and there’s no chance they make a deep run without him driving the bus. This slump dating back to the last 13 regular season games is Judge’s worst of the season. It really couldn’t have come at a worse time.

“When you are a little late, you miss some pitches you usually do some damage on, and you are usually swinging at stuff that you don’t,” Judge said after Game 2. "I’ve had two bad games in my career multiple times. It’s part of it. You have to learn from your mistakes. You have to get ready for the next one. There are no breaks right now. We have quite a few in a row.”

2. Two early runs and nothing else. For a little while there it looked like home plate umpire Jeremie Rehak gave the Yankees the gift that would give them a 2-0 series lead. With a runner on base in the first inning, Rehak called Shane Bieber’s 3-1 pitch to Giancarlo Stanton a strike even though it was out of the zone. Stanton usually doesn't react much but he was visible upset with the call. Here’s the location:

Usually the gift comes when the ump calls a strike a ball. In this case it came when the ump called a ball a strike, because it extended the at-bat, and Stanton hit the next pitch into the short porch for a two-run homer and a 2-0 lead. The Yankees are very good and, up until that point, they were getting all the breaks too. Everything was clicking. Then, it stopped.

In the third inning, Stanton struck out and Josh Donaldson lined out with runners on second and third, and the Yankees went 2-for-25 the rest of the game. They couldn’t touch Cleveland bullpen and quite literally at times. Four Guardians relievers faced 18 batters and only six put the ball in play. This is the nightmare scenario. A parade of hard-throwing righties who suppress contact.

To be clear, not putting the ball in play doesn’t just mean strikeouts. The Yankees did work four walks in 4.1 innings against Cleveland’s bullpen, including three against James Karinchak in the eighth. Stanton, Donaldson, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa worked good, hard at-bats to reach base. Then the lineup found Kyle Higashioka, who lined out to third to strand the bases loaded.

The 2-3-4 hitters (Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, Stanton) went 4-for-11 with three walks in Game 2. The rest of the Yankees went 2-for-25 with four walks, and Kiner-Falefa had both hits and one of the walks. This was always the risk with this lineup. Judge doesn’t do anything and the bottom of the order isn’t good enough to pick up the slack.

The best thing you can say about Game 2 is the Yankees worked Cleveland’s bullpen hard, though they really only worked Clase hard. He threw 33 pitches in 2.1 innings, and while I have to think he will be available in Game 3, Clase probably won’t go multiple innings again, and there’s a chance he’ll be compromised. That’s about the extent of the good. Clase might be tired. Yuck.

3. Bullpen machinations. While I admit to being interested to see what Jameson Taillon can do in short relief, I can’t say I agree with the Yankees throwing him right into the fire. He was going to come into Game 1 had another batter reached base in the ninth, and he was brought into the tenth inning of a tie game in Game 2. Taillon is firmly in the Circle of Trust™, apparently.

The game-losing tenth inning rally was a combination of bad luck and bad baseball. It was bad luck because Jose Ramirez’s leadoff bloop had a 76.3 mph exit velocity and a .090 expected batting average. It found grass between Oswaldo Cabrera coming in and Josh Donaldson going back. A more experienced left fielder might’ve made that play. I dunno.

The rally was also bad baseball because once Donaldson saw Ramirez hustling toward second base, he rushed a throw that sailed wide of Gleyber Torres at the bag. That allowed Ramirez to get to third with no outs. The irony, eh? Ramirez’s hustle forced Donaldson into an error on a pop up Donaldson probably would have jogged out and had to stop at first base.

“We're both going for it. I saw out of the corner of my eye (Cabrera) was coming full steam ahead right there, so I kind of backed off,” Donaldson said about the play. “The ball stayed close. I thought I had a chance at second for a little bit to try to make a play. And, you know, Jose Ramirez does what he does. He can run. I think it would have been bang-bang even if I'd made a really good throw. In the moment, I thought I had a chance. But didn’t make a great throw. But at the end of the day I was trying to make a play, and I'll live with that.”

Oscar Gonzalez’s go-ahead single was another bloop (58.9 mph and .370 expected batting average) then Josh Naylor’s insurance run double was a rocket (108.5 mph and .680 expected batting average). Harrison Bader took a shockingly bad route, but I don’t think he was getting there with a good route anyway. The first two bloops were annoying. The double was crushed.

The two bloop singles were classic Guardians baseball. That’s how they score. They dink and dunk and hustle. I can’t get too mad at Taillon for that, though the double was hammered, and I didn’t like the decision to go to Taillon in that spot in the first place. In fact, let’s try to make sense of the bullpen decisions quick, shall we?

Trivino begins the sixth

Lou Trivino started warming up after Andres Gimenez’s fourth inning single to give the Guardians their first run. Nestor Cortes faced seven more batters after that and six of the final 10 batters he faced reached base. Cortes escaped the fourth, then went back out for the fifth, and gave up the game-tying homer to Amed Rosario. He faced another three batters after that too. Trivino was coming in only if things got really hairy, I guess. He eventually started the sixth inning, went strikeout, walk, strikeout, and that was it.

Loaisiga for Straw

I’ve thought about it and thought about it, and I’ve come to the conclusion Aaron Boone yanked Trivino and went to Jonathan Loaisiga against Myles Straw because of the three-batter minimum. Straw was one of the worst hitters in baseball this season (.221/.291/.274 and 64 wRC+) and replacing a righty with a righty for matchup reasons would have been ridiculous.

I think Loaisiga came in to face Straw so his three batters would be up when Ramirez came to the plate. Loaisiga’s three batters were Straw, Steven Kwan, and Rosario. That way, if things got messy, the Yankees would be able to pull Loaisiga and bring in Wandy Peralta to turn Ramirez around to his worse side and toward the big part of the park. That’s the only way it makes sense.

Anyway, Loaisiga wound up getting five outs spanning the sixth, seventh, and eight innings. Against the top of the order too. Once again, Loaisiga was tasked with getting Cleveland’s best hitters late in the game. That’s his lane. If Loaisiga was brought in to match up with Straw, it was overkill. If it was for three-batter minimum/Ramirez reasons, okay, I get it.

Peralta for the lefty lane

As long as Naylor and Gimenez bat near each other in the lineup (and they always do, usually with a righty sandwiched between them), that will be the Wandy Lane. He’s coming in to face the two lefties, and he retired all three batters he faced in Game 2. Naylor grounded out, Owen Miller struck out, then Gimenez struck out to begin the ninth. Well done, Wandy.

Holmes in the ninth

Peralta got his three batters on only 15 pitches. Could he really not stay in to get the final two outs of the ninth inning too (against the bottom of the order, no less)? I understand Clay Holmes is the better on-paper matchup against Austin Hedges (who was replaced by lefty pinch-hitter Will Brennan) and Straw, but geez. I would’ve liked the Yankees to keep riding Wandy there.

Ultimately, Holmes replaced Peralta and managed to pitch around a walk (Straw) and an Anthony Rizzo error (Kwan). Holmes threw 16 pitches to get two outs in the ninth. I get the matchup stuff, but I think going to Holmes there was a case of the Yankees managing for the series rather than the game, and making sure Peralta would be available in Game 3 by not running up his pitch count in Game 2. It felt like Wandy had a few more outs to give there. Shrug.

Taillon for the tenth

I get not sending Holmes back out for the tenth. I didn’t like going to Taillon (I would’ve gone to Clarke Schmidt, who wound up finishing the inning anyway) but I get not pushing Holmes into a second inning so soon after the shoulder injury. Game 2 was not just his second game since the injury, it was his second time facing hitters. Zero live batting practice sessions. Holmes was on a pitch limit in Game 1 and I imagine he came close to that limit in Game 2.

The bullpen did an excellent job in Game 2 up until that tenth inning. I would’ve liked Peralta to get through the ninth, and I would’ve gone Schmidt before Taillon, but I can at least squint my eyes and see the logic behind the moves. Unless Holmes and/or Peralta are in “no back-to-back days” territory post-injury, I don’t see why any of the Game 2 relievers would be unavailable in Game 3. Hopefully the offense gives them a little support this time.

4. Letting Locastro hit. Hoo boy, this was bad. Tim Locastro pinch-ran for Giancarlo Stanton in the eighth and he stole the base everyone in the ballpark knew he was going to try to steal, but the offense stranded him. Taking Stanton out late in a close game is dicey, though if things work out there, his lineup spot doesn’t come around again. It almost worked. Too bad it didn’t.

Stanton’s lineup spot did come around, and Locastro hit for himself to leadoff the bottom of the tenth with the Yankees down two. He hit for himself! If Locastro is taking an at-bat late in a close postseason game, you either have a bad manager or a bad roster, and the Yankees have a little of both, right? Hard for me to believe the best possible ALDS roster does not include Oswald Peraza, but I digress.

“Clase, a little bit more of a reverse split guy, a guy that doesn't really typically walk guys,” Aaron Boone said when asked why he let Locastro hit for himself in the tenth. “For me it was a little bit of a wash of an at-bat there, so I didn't want to burn the player with Timmy already in the game.”

A few problems with that logic. One, Clase does have a very small reverse split …

• 2021-22 vs. RHB: .182/.223/.242 (.205 wOBA) and 27.5 K%
• 2021-22 vs. LHB: .179/.219/.221 (.193 wOBA) and 27.4 K%

… but it’s so small it’s negligible, and that’s more of a reason to pinch-hit, right? Handedness doesn’t matter against Clase, so get your best available hitter in there regardless of whether he's a righty or lefty. Two, calling Clase a “guy that doesn’t really typically walk guys” is funny when he walked the very next batter after Locastro (Josh Donaldson). Look at his pitch locations in the tenth:

Clase was up over 25 pitches and working in his third inning. Fatigue was setting in and he was losing the zone. He may not typically walk hitters, but he also doesn’t typically pitch this deep into a single outing. And third, yeesh, that “wash of an at-bat” comment. If the Yankees truly consider Locastro, Aaron Hicks, and Marwin Gonzalez (the only two guys left on the bench) all equal at the plate, then they really screwed up by not carrying Peraza on the ALDS roster.

The Yankees didn’t need a home run there. They didn’t need someone to get on and steal a base to get into scoring position. They just needed someone to not make an out, and even as bad as he was this season, Hicks is less likely to make an out than Locastro. Especially with Clase kinda sorta starting to lose the zone. Hicks is more likely to take that walk than Locastro or Gonzalez.

Locastro did put the ball in play, which is something most of the hitters the Yankees sent to the plate against Cleveland’s bullpen failed to do, but I have a hard time believing he was the best option in that situation. The decision to let Locastro hit there was worse than any of the bullpen decisions. That was an obvious “this doesn't put the Yankees in the best position to win" move. Or non-move.

5. McKenzie in Game 3. Coming into 2022, Guardians righty Triston McKenzie was a trendy breakout pick, and break out he did, throwing 191.1 innings with a 2.96 ERA (3.59 FIP). He cut his walk rate in half (11.7% last year to 5.9% this year) and reined in the homers (1.58 HR/9 to 1.18 HR/9), and delivered on the promise that made him a top 100 prospect.

“I think attacking the strike zone early. I think a lot of the times in years prior – so 2021 and 2020 – I would try to be perfect on the edges early in the counts, and I would find myself behind a lot, and then trying to work from behind,” McKenzie said Friday when asked what fueled his breakout. “This year my goal and my focus was to get ahead of guys and force them to put the ball in play. Keep my pitch count down and let the guys work behind me. And I think it's just allowed me to have consistency through my starts and cut down on the walks.”

At a quick glance, McKenzie’s stuff is unremarkable because he has average-ish fastball velocity (92.5 mph average and 96.2 mph max in 2022) and below-average spin on his curveball and slider. It works for three reasons. First and foremost, McKenzie tunnels very well. It all looks the same coming out of his hand, like this (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Second, McKenzie gets a real flat vertical approach angle on his fastball (it’s on par with Shohei Ohtani’s and Justin Verlander’s), which, in English, means his fastball stays on a level plane through the zone. Hitters tend to swing under it because the pitch doesn’t drop as much as expected. This is essentially “life” through the zone. McKenzie’s fastball looks like it jumps on hitters.

And third, McKenzie has a long stride with tremendous extension (87th percentile). He’s very tall (6-foot-5) and he releases the ball closer to the plate than most pitchers that size. The radar gun may say 92-94 mph, but the extension and approach angle allow McKenzie’s fastball to play up. Hitters react like it’s 97-98 mph. Just watch the swings in Game 3. There will be some ugly ones.

McKenzie, who was born in Brooklyn and trains at Eric Cressey’s facility in Florida, dominated the Yankees in his one regular season start against them this year (one hit in seven shutout innings) and was great in his Wild Card Series start (two hits in six shutout innings). Swing plane data is not public and the little bit I’ve seen suggests McKenzie is a bad matchup for the Yankees because their swing planes don’t match up with his fastball plane, if that makes sense.

Bottom line, McKenzie gets most of his outs on pitches out of the zone. Hitters either pop up or swing through fastballs above the zone, or they chase breaking balls for swings and misses or weak contact. “Don’t chase out of the zone” is much easier said than done, but that’s the key for the Yankees in Game 3. If McKenzie is getting those chases early in Game 3, it’s a bad sign.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Nestor Cortes wasn’t sharp in Game 2. He needed that soft line drive double play to escape the first and made that incredible play with the bases loaded in the third, when he snagged a comebacker and threw Myles Straw out from his behind (video). If that ball gets by Cortes, it’s in center field for a two-run single. “I make that play 100% of the time,” Nestor joked after the game. Two runs in five innings isn’t bad, though he wasn’t as good as that may lead you to believe. It was very much a bend but don’t break outing … Welcome back, Matt Carpenter. He pinch-hit for Jose Trevino with two on and two out in the sixth inning, and it was the right time to use him. The score was tied, he was guaranteed to face a righty (because of the three-batter minimum), and there were ducks on the pond. It was a chance to do real damage. Take your shot there. Alas, Carpenter struck out to end the inning. Hopefully his at-bat du jour goes better in Games 3 and 4 … Some injury housekeeping: Andrew Benintendi (wrist), Ron Marinaccio (shin), and Frankie Montas (shoulder) are going to Tampa to continue their rehab work. DJ LeMahieu (foot) will be with the Yankees in Cleveland. Marinaccio and Montas recently threw bullpen sessions and the Yankees are hopeful all four guys will be in play for the ALCS if they advance. I’m not sure how much Benintendi will be able to contribute so soon after hamate surgery, but I hope we get to find out … And finally, David Cone threw out the ceremonial first pitch prior to Game 2. Still waiting on Brett Gardner’s triumphant return to Yankee Stadium. One day.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)