Thoughts before Game 2 of the 2022 ALDS

UPDATE: Game 2 has officially been postponed. Game 2 will be played at 1:07pm ET on Friday. If necessary, Games 2-5 will be played on four consecutive days. The right call. The forecast isn't getting any better and MLB doesn't like to risk it in the postseason. If they don't think they can play an uninterrupted nine innings, they won't play. See you Friday.

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ORIGINAL POST: For television scheduling reasons, the Yankees and Guardians had an off-day between Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS. The Yankees of course won Game 1, and the series resumes with Game 2 on Thursday night. At least in theory. The weather’s not looking so great. Here are the updated ZiPS projections:

Those are still based on Jameson Taillon starting Game 4 for some reason. Gerrit Cole will start Game 4, so the Yankees’ probability of winning in four games is better than what’s in the table. Here are a few quick thoughts leading up to Game 2.

1. The latest on the weather. The forecast hasn’t changed much in the last 48 hours. The internet tells me the rain will begin around noon and continue into the early morning Friday, with the heaviest stuff around game time. The Braves and Phillies sat through a three-hour delay Wednesday and were able to play. Not sure the Guardians and Yankees can do the same. There’s no window coming.

This is the most optimistic forecast I’ve seen:

“It would probably affect the pitching rotation if you went five games and you had to play four in a row, sure,” Aaron Boone said Wednesday. “The lineup, no. I mean, we play, that's what you do in baseball is you play every day. Shouldn't affect that. That's more who we are going up against, matchups, things like that. Pitching, it could change a little bit of what you do.”

Pushing Game 2 back to Friday is easy enough – that might be an afternoon game because the two teams have to travel afterward – and yeah, a postponement would mess up pitching plans, but what can you do? It sure looks like Game 2 will be postponed. Hopefully MLB calls it soon, before everyone makes the trek to the Bronx in the rain and wind.

(The surest sign there’s a lot of rain coming today: ConEd wasn’t outside my building to continue their work in the street. Yeah, the Yankees probably aren’t playing today, but I didn’t have to hear a jackhammer at 7am again, so it ain’t all bad.)

2. Nestor vs. Cleveland. Joe Torre used to say Game 2 was the most important game of the series because it was a chance to either take control with a 2-0 lead or avoid an 0-2 hole, and that’s why he always slotted Andy Pettitte in as his Game 2 starter. I don’t 100% agree with that logic (why not start Pettitte in Game 1 to have a better chance at a 1-0 lead?) but I kinda get it.

The new postseason format means the Guardians will be able to throw Shane Bieber, their best pitcher, in Game 2 as they look to avoid that dreaded 0-2 hole. The Yankees, meanwhile, will counter with Nestor Cortes, who was their best pitcher during the regular season. Furthermore, Nasty Nestor is a good matchup against Cleveland because they can’t hit lefties. At all.

Here are their ranks against lefty pitchers this season:

• AVG: .239 (20th in MLB)
• OBP: .303 (24th)
• SLG: .343 (29th)
• wRC: 84 (25th)
• Barrel rate: 5.1% (30th)

The next worst postseason team against lefties is the Padres with a 103 wRC+. The Guardians were a bit better against southpaws in August and September (.267/.319/.373 and 96 wRC+), but they’re still below average overall. Here are Cleveland’s best hitters against lefties (among players on their ALDS roster):

1. Andres Gimenez: .336/.400/.487 (158 wRC+)
2. Amed Rosario: .295/.333/.463 (126 wRC+)
3. Oscar Gonzalez: .266/.304/.440 (107 wRC+)
4. Jose Ramirez: .235/.315/.414 (97 wRC+)
5. Myles Straw: .264/.324/.326 (88 wRC+)

Gimenez is a lefty hitter who had very little success against lefties prior to this season, so either he learned a new skill or it’s the weirdness of 128 plate appearances. Ramirez’s platoon split is atypical. He had a very small split his entire career up until this year, then he started to struggle against lefties. Ramirez still scares me. The numbers don’t make me feel better.

I’m not plugged into the Guardians enough to understand the Owen Miller thing. Miller generally platoons with Josh Naylor at first base and he hit .212/.290/.328 (77 wRC+) against lefties this year. He regularly pinch-hits against them too (he pinch-hit against Wandy Peralta in Game 1, though Aaron Boone then brought in Clay Holmes). Despite those numbers, Miller is a seemingly trusted platoon bat. Cleveland is a really smart team, but I don’t understand this at all. Whatever. Not my problem. (The Miller thing would drive me nuts if I were a Guardians fan.)

Point is, you can see how quickly the lineup thins out against lefties, right? Cortes faced the Guardians twice this year and held them to four hits in 12.1 innings. Those starts were a long time ago, and anything can happen in one single game, but boy, the on paper matchup is about as good as it can get for Cortes. He’s a tough lefty going up against a team that can’t hit lefties.

“He's really, really good,” Terry Francona said when asked about Cortes on Wednesday. “The three guys that they named -- four, actually, if you count Taillon -- you look at their hits-to-innings, and that's a big indicator. It's like 50 short of his innings. He's got that fastball that he can throw at the top of the zone that kind of disappears on you and gets past your barrel. Gives you different looks that are different, and there's some deception. But along with the deception, there's good stuff.”

A shoulder injury essentially ended Bieber’s season last June (he did make two appearances in September while on a pitch count) and his velocity hasn’t come all the way back. This is usually nightmare stuff for your young, under team control ace:

Bieber still managed to have an ace-caliber 2022 (2.88 ERA and 2.87 FIP) because his curveball and slider are so good, because his fastball command is elite, and because he pitches in the AL Central (let’s be real here, facing the Royals and Tigers every other week doesn’t hurt). Bieber is still excellent and you have to figure he’ll stifle the Yankees, and Cortes will have to match him.

“Great command. We've seen his fastball velocity tick up a little bit as the season's gone on. He's not necessarily overpowering in that manner, but you watch his delivery and his arm stroke, so he creates deception, which I think allows his stuff to play up,” Boone said when asked about Bieber on Wednesday. “He can really command it at an elite level. He's one of the best pitchers in the league for us, and I think it starts with really having elite command.”

3. Taxi squad update. The Yankees technically don’t have a taxi squad right now because they haven’t gone on the road yet, but here are the extra players I’ve seen at Yankee Stadium the last few days: Albert Abreu, Rob Brantly, Estevan Florial, and Oswald Peraza. No surprises there. There are possibly (likely) others roaming around who I just haven’t seen (Greg Weissert?).

This is Brantly’s third straight postseason hanging around the Yankees and I think it’s at least a little notable he’s here and not Ben Rortvedt, who’s on the 40-man roster. Brantly is more familiar with the pitching staff and I assume that’s the No. 1 factor. Opening a 40-man roster spot would be easy (Scott Effross to the 60-day injured list) in the event Brantly is needed.

Also, several players at the stay-ready camp in Somerset were in attendance for Game 1, including infielders Jesus Bastidas and Andres Chaparro, and righty Matt Minnick. The Yankees bought those three (and others) over from Somerset last weekend to give them extra bodies for their intrasquad games. I thought it was neat they got to attend Game 1 as a little reward.

Bastidas, Chaparro, and Minnick all had great seasons with mostly Double-A Somerset. A few weeks ago I wrote briefly about Bastidas’ power breakout and mentioned Minnick as an Arizona Fall League candidate. Chaparro hit .289/.369/.594 (158 wRC+) with 19 homers and a 19.9% strikeout rate in 64 Double-A games. He is one of the organization’s top exit velocity dudes.

All three guys are Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter. Maybe being at the stay-ready camp means the Yankees like them and are planning to put them on the 40-man roster. Maybe they’re just being given a chance to hobnob with the big leaguers as a reward for strong seasons. Either way, I can’t imagine they’ll travel to Cleveland, but at least they got to take in Game 1.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Phil asks: RAB is obviously Yankees themed, but would love to hear thoughts around the Mets. Fumbled away NL East down the stretch and after winning 100 games were bounced out in the wild card round with arguably best 1-2 starting pitcher duo. Their fans were way too obnoxious this year, feels rather satisfying to see them sitting at home for the rest of the fall classic.

Baseball did away with Game 163 tiebreakers and the Braves and Mets finished with identical 101-61 records this year. Atlanta won the division because they won the season series 10-9, and they won the season series because they swept the Mets the last weekend of the season. The Mets went to Atlanta needing one win to maintain control of the division, but it was a bridge too far.

The Mets were 10.5 games up on June 1st and it is the third largest blown division lead in baseball history behind the 1951 Dodgers (13 games) and 1995 Angels (11 games). The Yankees famously erased a 14-game deficit to win the AL East in 1978, though they were in fourth place at the time. The Red Sox never led the division by more than 10 games that year.

It’s trendy to say the Braves won the NL East more than the Mets lost it, and while I get that, the Mets got swept by the 88-loss Cubs at home in September. They went to Atlanta needing one win that final weekend and couldn’t get it. The Mets certainly did their part in losing the division. The Braves series exposed their lack of power. They couldn’t go swing for swing with Atlanta.

This leaderboard should be a red flag as the Mets’ brain trust plans out their offseason. This is combined home runs from the right field, left field, and DH positions. Three positions expected to provide power and with pretty high offensive bars:

1. Yankees: 104
2. Astros: 93
3. Phillies: 92
4. Dodgers: 80
…
20. Mets: 55
21. Rangers: 54
22. Athletics: 53
23. Pirates: 53

Four postseason teams (including three of the four teams to get a Wild Card Series bye) at the top while the Mets roll around in the mud with three rebuilding clubs that played at a combined 99-loss pace in 2022. The Mets were obviously a very good team with a good offense, but other than Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, they lack true difference-makers. The offense is somewhat Raysian.

Age and injury might be catching up to Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. They stumbled down the stretch and into September, and Scherzer got clobbered in his Wild Card Series start (seven runs and four homers). Elbow and shoulder trouble limited deGrom to 15 and 12 starts the last two years. Scherzer turned 38 in July. Their late season fades might be more than a blip. There are age and injury red flags here.

I think Buck Showalter asking the umpires to check Joe Musgrove for foreign substances in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series stunk of desperation and was also kinda embarrassing (Mets broadcaster Gary Cohen thought so too). Showalter somehow used four relievers before going to Edwin Diaz in a must win game. By time Diaz entered, the Mets trailed 4-0 in the eighth. Too little, too late.

(It wasn’t until just now that I realized Game 3 was a matchup of my top pitching targets in my last two Offseason Plans. Musgrove (2020-21) was masterful while Bassitt (2021-22) wilted.)

The Mets have a lot – A LOT – of important players becoming free agents this winter: deGrom (he says he’s opting out of the last year and $32.5M on his deal), Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco ($14M club option), Taijuan Walker ($6M player option), Brandon Nimmo, and most of the bullpen (Diaz, Mychal Givens, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez). Yeesh. There will be a lot of turnover in Flushing this offseason.

I think the Mets fell victim to being in the same division as a powerhouse Braves team, having an underpowered offense (15th in MLB in homers), and their co-aces petering out at the same time. A pretty big chunk of my family are Mets fans, so I feel for them, but I can’t say I’m not enjoying the post-Mets elimination schadenfreude. Little brother needed a reminder that regular season success only goes so far around these parts.

Jeff asks: I was hoping for a Jays take. As good as they are (and they are GOOD) the 2022 Jays still have to be one of the most overrated, overhyped teams this game has ever seen. That they didn’t sweep their way through to the World Series has the team, the media, and the fans in this country absolutely dumbfounded, and I love every minute of it. That said, I was actually hoping they’d make it through, as a tougher opponent for the Astros. Godspeed M’s.

The Blue Jays underperformed something fierce this season. Their pitching people have a good track record of helping guys level up (Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Robbie Ray, etc.), yet Jose Berrios went backwards and Yusei Kikuchi remains enigmatic. Batters hit .288/.349/.465 against Berrios this year. That’s basically Starling Marte (.292/.347/.468). Rough.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. was merely great rather than MVP caliber, Bo Bichette didn’t really get hot until September, Alejandro Kirk cooled off considerably in the second half, and they have a 2019-21 Yankees-esque offense in that it is way too right-handed. Only 1,016 plate appearances by lefties this year, far and away the fewest in baseball (Raimel Tapia and Cavan Biggio combined for 736 of those plate appearances, and yikes). The offense is way too one-dimensional.

Coming into the season I thought the Blue Jays were the best team in the AL East and maybe the best team in the AL period. I thought they had the best offense and would have among the best pitching staffs. That never came to fruition. Too many hitters underperformed for long stretches and the back of the rotation/middle of the bullpen were sketchy all year.

The Blue Jays have a ton of talent and, with the right moves this winter, sure, I could see them challenging for a division title in 2023. I mean, if you were picking the player most likely to have a 2022 Aaron Judge season in 2023, wouldn’t Vlad Jr. be somewhat high on that list? Bichette, Guerrero, George Springer, Alek Manoah, and Kevin Gausman are a pretty great core.

The two-game Wild Card Series sweep does not mean the Mariners are a better team than the Blue Jays, it just means they were better for two games, and I agree Toronto would’ve put up a tougher fight against the Astros. Granted, I think Houston would’ve beaten them anyway, but I think the Blue Jays make them sweat a little more. Ultimately, Toronto is not in the ALDS because they don’t deserve to be. They were outplayed when presented with the opportunity to advance.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)