Thoughts prior to Game 1 of the 2022 ALDS

he ALDS begins Tuesday night and Yankee Stadium will host its first postseason game since Game 5 of the 2019 ALCS. The 2020 pandemic postseason took the Yankees to Cleveland and San Diego, and last year they were one-and-done in the Wild Card Game at Fenway Park. It’s been a little bit since the last time we saw postseason baseball in the Bronx.

The Guardians play a very fun, action-packed style that seems designed specifically to drive the other team nuts. Can they beat the Yankees? Of course. I still feel like a lot of ALDS previews out there are overly negative about the Yankees. I dunno. Maybe I’m just biased. Here are the ALDS outcome probabilities ZiPS spit out:

For whatever reason the projections are based on Jameson Taillon starting Game 4 and Gerrit Cole starting Game 5. If there’s a Game 4, Cole will start on normal rest. The projections would favor the Yankees even more with Cole in Game 4 because he would be that much more likely to make a second start in the series. Eh, whatever.

We still don’t know who will throw out the ceremonial first pitch prior to Game 1 and the Yankees might not announce it ahead of time and just keep us all guessing, but Derek Jeter did tease that he’s in New York on Tuesday morning. Hmmm. We’ll find out the first pitch thrower soon enough. To today’s post.

1. ALDS roster announced. The ALDS roster had to be submitted to the commissioner’s office by 10am ET and the Yankees announced their 26-man squad shortly thereafter. Here’s the ALDS roster:

Notably absent: Scott Effross. The good news is it’s not his shoulder again. The bad news is he needs freaking Tommy John surgery, according to Jack Curry. Effross will miss the postseason and all of 2023 as well. Just a brutal, brutal turn of events. Look at the relievers the Yankees will not have for at least the ALDS, if not the entire postseason:

• LHP Zack Britton (shoulder)
• LHP Aroldis Chapman (went AWOL)
• RHP Scott Effross (Tommy John surgery)
• RHP Chad Green (Tommy John surgery)
• RHP Mike King (elbow)
• RHP Ron Marinaccio (shin, could return later in the postseason)
• RHP Stephen Ridings (shoulder)

Bader will need to have a 2009 A-Rod postseason type run to prevent this from being an all-time terrible trade deadline. The best trade was dumping Joey Gallo for one prospect 12 months after trading four prospects to get him. Yeah, the trades all made sense at the time, but the results matter. No one hangs a “it made sense at the time” banner (except maybe the Rays).

The postseason Circle of Trust™ right now is Loaisiga, Trivino, and post-cortisone shot in his shoulder Holmes. Not great! Also not great is having to trust Aaron Boone to pull the right strings with his thinnest bullpen as Yankees manager. Shoutout to Chapman for deserting the team too. He was probably next in line for a bullpen spot. Now Albert Abreu and Greg Weissert are next up.

Holmes is on the roster even though he’s unlikely to be available in Game 1. The Yankees are not the only team using a roster spot on a pitcher with questionable availability. Spender Strider is on the Braves’ NLDS roster even though he hasn’t pitched since Sept. 18th because of an oblique issue. He’ll throw a bullpen session Tuesday morning to gauge his readiness. Like Strider, Holmes is on the roster with an eye on later in the series, not necessarily Game 1.

Also not on the roster: DJ LeMahieu. His toe is still an issue and it bothers him too much at the plate. A compromised LeMahieu does the Yankees no good. “That’s one of the things obviously we’re waiting on. I feel like he was still compromised. That’s what I was seeing. We want to see how he is today and what he’s able to do, and make that determination,” Boone told Bryan Hoch about LeMahieu on Monday.

(Joel Sherman says LeMahieu’s injury is a fracture in his foot that extends to his toes. He could be on the roster if the Yankees advance, but it’ll be tough to play through.)

The Yankees are carrying 12 pitchers, which is all you need in a best-of-five. Gonzalez and Locastro got the final two bench spots. Carrying Locastro as a pinch-runner always made sense. Gonzalez got the nod over Oswald Peraza, presumably because he’s more versatile. He’s also a worse player, but at least he can be worse at many different positions. I would’ve rather carried Peraza seeing how Cabrera can move around. Shrug.

Boone trying to cobble together the bullpen could be a nightmare. The Yankees lost a lot of good relievers at a really bad time. Hopefully Taillon’s bullpen stint goes well, hopefully the starters take the ball deep into the game, and hopefully the offense gives them plenty of breathing room. Others will have to make life easier on the relief crew.

(Also, Tyler Wade elected free agency last week, per the MiLB.com transactions page. Not a big loss or anything, just figured I’d note it. Wade was something like fourth or fifth on the utility man/pinch-runner depth chart.)

2. Sandlin out for ALDS. Guardians righty Nick Sandlin will miss the ALDS with a muscle issue in his back/shoulder, reports Zack Meisel. He’ll miss the rest of the postseason, though we only care about the ALDS. Sandlin exited Game 2 of the Wild Card Series with the injury and has had on and off shoulder trouble over the years. Here is Cleveland’s ALDS roster.

Cleveland has a clearly defined bullpen hierarchy: Emmanuel Clase is the lockdown closer, and James Karinchak and Trevor Stephen are the trusted setup men (Karinchak moreso than Stephan). Sandlin was fourth in line. He’s similar to Scott Effross as a low arm slot guy who gets a lot of movement. This can’t be fun for righty hitters (GIF via Ben Brown):

Unlike Effross, Sandlin is essentially a righty specialist. Lefties had a .365 OBP with more walks than strikeouts against him in 2022. Sandlin eats up righties though: .149/.265/.238 (.234 wOBA) with 29.1% strikeouts and 53.7% ground balls. You needn’t try hard to see how this guy could’ve been a capital-P Problem for the Gleyber Torres-Giancarlo Stanton-Josh Donaldson lane.

“They are pretty dangerous right-hand hitters,” Terry Francona told Mandy Bell on Monday. “(Sandlin) would be, what we would hope, a huge weapon. Obviously that's not going to happen. I kind of feel more for him than – well, I always feel like we'll figure it out. Kind of feel more for him.”

So, no Sandlin for the ALDS. Cleveland loses their fourth best reliever and the Yankees no longer have to worry about a nightmare righty matchup guy in the middle innings. Too bad he got hurt. I’d rather beat the Guardians at full strength, but injuries are part of the game. No one feels sorry for the Yankees that they’re without Mike King and others.

3. Ode to the non-ALDS roster guys. Every year it takes a couple dozen players to get through the 162-game regular season, yet only 26 or so are left on the field celebrating with the World Series trophy. The Yankees used 54 players this season and a whole lot of them are nowhere near the team this October. They helped during the summer but have since been cast aside.

The Yankees used 11 different players for no more than three games this year. That list includes former All-Stars (Zack Britton, Shane Greene), scrap heap pickups (Chi Chi Gonzalez, Ronald Guzman), and undoubtedly a few players you’ve forgotten about (Anthony Banda, David McKay). Some contributed meaningfully and some were there only because the Yankees needed a body.

With the first postseason game a few hours away, let’s take a quick second to look back at a few players who helped the Yankees out this summer even though they’re no longer part of the picture, and in some cases no longer part of the organization. I swear I didn’t plan it this way, but the four players I’m highlighting all turned out to be pitchers. Let’s get to ‘em.

Luis Gil

It wasn’t until May 12th, in their 31st game of the season, that the Yankees needed to use a sixth starter, and they only needed that sixth starter because of a rainout and a doubleheader. Gil got the call against the White Sox in Chicago and didn’t pitch well (4 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 K), though he ate up some innings and the Yankees did win the game. Gil was returned to Triple-A the next day and then blew out his elbow in his next start. He had Tommy John surgery on May 25th and recently started his throwing program. Rough timing. If not for the injury, Gil and his high octane heater might be in the postseason bullpen.

Chad Green

The forgotten setup man. After spending five years as a workhorse reliever (Green was 19th in relief innings from 2017-21 and they were basically all high leverage innings), Green blew out his elbow on a pickoff throw of all things on May 19th. He made a quick toss over to first base to keep the runner close, felt something pop, and that was it. Tommy John surgery.

Prior to the injury Green appeared in 14 games, the Yankees won 11 of them, and he posted a 3.00 ERA (2.85 FIP) in 15 innings. He picked up a save in a one-run game in Toronto on May 2nd when the Yankees were short on rested bullpen arms, and he struck out 15 of the final 49 batters he faced this year (30.6%). Green blowing out his elbow in his free agent year is just cruel after all his time as a reliable and I’d argue underappreciated bullpen guy. (Mike King fits here too, though he was with the Yankees the majority of the season.)

JP Sears

Remember when teams started the season with a 28-man roster because of the lockout and the short Spring Training, and the Yankees had 16 (!) pitchers on their Opening Day roster? Sears was among them. He made two token relief appearances in April, was sent to Triple-A, then was summered to make two spot starts in the coming weeks:

• May 25th vs. Orioles: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K on 84 pitches
• June 28th vs. Athletics: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K on 78 pitches

Sears was on a pitch limit both times and he was still able to take the ball relatively deep, and the Yankees won both games despite scoring four runs total. Can’t complain about getting two starts like that from a guy who was somewhere in the No. 6-8 range on your depth chart.

The Yankees sent Sears to the A’s in the Frankie Montas trade at the deadline and his Oakland tenure started well enough (eight runs in his first 27.1 innings) before the wheels came off in September (18 runs in his final 20.2 innings). Before the trade, Sears was spot starter royalty.

Ryan Weber

On four separate occasions the Yankees called Weber up, used him to soak up miscellaneous innings, then designated him for assignment. The first three times he quickly re-signed with the Yankees on a new minor league deal. I assume those transactions were all agreed upon ahead of time and Weber was fully aware the Yankees intended to use him that way.

Anyway, Luis Severino went on the COVID list on June 16th and the Yankees needed a spot starter on short notice. Clarke Schmidt got the start but wasn’t stretched out, so Weber came up as a long man. Schmidt went three innings, then Weber allowed just a solo homer in 3.2 innings in a win over the Rays. That was back when anyone the Yankees put on the mound pitched like a Cy Young candidate. They could do no wrong on the pitching side the first few months.

Weber threw three scoreless innings in a blowout win over the Red Sox on June 16th to record his first Major League save. All told, Weber threw 10.2 innings across five appearances with the Yankees, and allowed just the one run on a solo homer. As far as up and down journeymen go, you can’t beat the job Weber did this year. He pitched well in a lot of thankless innings.

4. Game 2 weather. Thursday’s weather forecast is not good. We’ll see how things develop over the next 48 hours, but right now, things don’t look great for Game 2. To wit:

MLB typically is quick to postpone postseason games these days. They would rather call it and reschedule than risk starting a game and having to hit pause because of the weather, which is what happened in Game 1 of the 2011 ALDS (I’m convinced the suspended game cost the Yankees the series). MLB is unlikely to make everyone sit through a long delay Thursday.

Should Game 2 get rained out Thursday, it would be played during the off-day Friday. That’s easy enough. The downside is Games 2-5 would then be played on four consecutive days, throwing a wrench in the three-man rotation plan. This would be the new ALDS schedule:

• Tuesday, Game 1: Gerrit Cole
• Wednesday: off-day
• Thursday: rainout
• Friday, Game 2: Nestor Cortes
• Saturday, Game 3: Luis Severino
• Sunday, Game 4: Cole on normal rest
• Monday, Game 5: ???

The Yankees would either have to abandon their plan to use Jameson Taillon as a reliever and start him in Game 5, or start Domingo German, or go with an all hands on deck bullpen. I mean, it would be all hands on deck no matter what, but there’s a difference between all hands on deck with an actual starting pitcher and with a true bullpen game, you know?

Hopefully it doesn’t come to this, either a Game 2 rainout or a Game 5 period. We’ll have to keep an eye on Thursday’s weather though. The forecast isn’t good at the moment and a Game 2 postponement would gum up the rotation works. For both teams. This isn’t a Yankees-specific problem.

“Like, say we play Thursday and we play two innings. I mean, we don’t know,” Terry Francona told Mandy Bell on Monday. “But it’s real that there’s weather there. So you just try to plan out the best you can, so you can adjust the best you can.”

5. On the Wild Card Series. The Wild Card Series has me conflicted. I greatly enjoyed the full days of postseason baseball and I dig the best-of-three format. It’s a happy medium between the urgency of the one-and-done Wild Card Game and a longer, more “fair” series. There was only one Game 3 this year, but there were no real duds either. The Wild Card Series was fun.

At the same time, I still think 12 teams in the postseason is too damn many. The races down the stretch featured a bunch of 84-86 win teams! We’re really watering down the postseason talent pool. Whatever, I’m fighting a losing battle. MLB will continue expanding the postseason whether I like it or not. At least the best-of-three Wild Card Series was entertaining. Small victories.

Mailbag Question of the Week

Dave asks: 3 of the 4 home teams lost in the wildcard round. Obviously a super small sample size but got me wondering. How big is the home field advantage in baseball? Is there data to look at home field advantage in the regular season vs home field advantage in the postseason?

Historically, the home team has won roughly 54% of games. No matter the years and no matter the league setup, the home team winning percentage has always been within a few points of 54%. Here are some quick home team winning percentage numbers:

REGULAR SEASON
All-time: .541
Pre-Expansion Era (prior to 1961): .545
Expansion Era (1961-22): .539
Since last expansion (1998-2022): .538

POSTSEASON
All-time: .546
Wild Card Era (1995-2022): .545

Since 1998, the difference between the home team winning percentage in the regular season and postseason works out to one win every 142 games or so. The numbers indicate the home team has an inherent advantage (duh), though that advantage does not increase (or decrease) all that much in October.

The road team winning three of the four Wild Card Series this past weekend is just short series randomness and not a sign the road team really has the advantage. Remember when the road team won all seven games in the 2019 World Series? That didn’t mean the road team suddenly had a leg up and neither does what happened this past weekend. It’s just baseball.

The Yankees went 57-24 (.704) at Yankee Stadium this year, tied with the Dodgers for the best home record in baseball. Their 42-39 (.519) road record was less impressive but at least they kept their head above water. I didn’t need to look up any historical winning percentages to know I want the Yankees playing as many postseason games in the Bronx as possible. It can be a tough place to play for opponents, and the Yankees are at their best at home.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)