October 9th, 2022: Chapman, Cole, Holmes, Carpenter, ALDS X-Factors

It’s official, it will be Yankees vs. Guardians in the ALDS. Cleveland ousted the Rays in the Wild Card Series over the weekend, and while Game 2 went 15 innings, there was no Game 3. Too bad. The best possible outcome was a long series that tired out both teams. Instead, the Guardians will have two days to rest up before the ALDS begins Tuesday. Here’s the schedule (all games on TBS):

• Game 1 (Tuesday): 6:38pm ET if Mets win Sunday and 7:37pm ET if Padres win
• Game 2 (Thursday): 7:37pm ET
• Games 3-5: TBA

The ALDS roster does not have to be set and filed with the league until Tuesday morning. We’ll find out who’s in and who’s out soon thereafter. As a reminder, the usual Tuesday/Friday post schedule goes out the window this time of year, and I’ll just play it by ear (there will definitely something on each game though). Let’s get to the latest.

1. The latest from the Bronx. The Yankees flew back to New York following Game 162 on Wednesday, took a team off-day Thursday, then began postseason workouts Friday. They played intrasquad games over the weekend, and reporters were allowed in for the first time Sunday. Here’s the news from Yankee Stadium.

Chapman goes AWOL

Might as well start with the big news. Aroldis Chapman flew home to Miami following Game 162 and skipped Friday’s workout (he was scheduled to throw live batting practice). Aaron Boone said the reason Chapman gave for his absence was “not an acceptable excuse,” and he told him to stay home. Chapman won’t be on the ALDS roster and the Yankees fined him.

“It’s unfortunate that he wasn’t here Friday,” Brian Cashman told Ron Blum. “Clearly disappointing, but at the same time, not surprised by how things are starting to play out over the course of the season. So it was surprising at first, like a little shocking, but then after the shock wore off, when you add everything up, it’s not surprising. There’s some questions about whether he’s been all-in or not for a little while, and he’s maintained verbally that he’s in, but at times actions don’t match those words.”

I guess it's fitting Chapman’s tenure with the Yankees began with disciplinary action (he had to serve his 30-game domestic violence suspension to begin 2016) and now it ends with disciplinary action. Injuries could pile up and maybe that Chapman lands back on the roster at some point, but nah. He’s done*. It wasn’t an accident Boone and Cashman talked about him in the past tense.

“I just felt like him not being here was not okay,” Boone told Greg Joyce. “I think he questioned whether he was going to be on the roster or not, but he needed to be here.”

The Yankees and Chapman’s teammates have done nothing but support him (at least publicly) all year and really dating back to last year, and this is how he repays that support? I can’t speak for the people in the clubhouse, but personally, this is a relief. I don’t even want to think about this guy anymore. Good riddance to one of the least likable Yankees of my lifetime.

There were some good moments (namely Game 5 of the 2017 ALDS), but, by and large, Chapman’s legacy as a Yankee will be defined by season-ending homers, walk-filled regular season meltdowns, and now going AWOL before the postseason. I don't need to ever see him at Old Timers’ Day. The Yankees gave Chapman plenty of chances and he never made them worth it.

* Chapman might be done as a big leaguer. Teams are willing to overlook a lot if you can help them win (I refer you back to why the Yankees were able to acquire Chapman for pennies on the dollar in the first place) but Chapman can’t help a team win right now. That plus abandoning your team in the postseason is a recipe for never pitching in this league again. The best ability is availability. The second best is reliability. Neither applies to Chapman now.

ALDS rotation

Despite all the recent chatter about someone other than Gerrit Cole possibly starting Game 1, it will indeed be Cole in Game 1. Can’t say I’m surprised. Here is the ALDS rotation:

• Game 1: Gerrit Cole
• Game 2: Nestor Cortes
• Game 3: Luis Severino

“I considered every angle, but ultimately considered this was the way we wanted to go,” Boone told Bryan Hoch about the decision to start Cole in Game 1.

Two things are true. One, Cole’s had major home run problems lately. He ran a 1.79 HR/9 (19.1% HR/FB) in his final 22 starts and 136 innings, which is terrible. Allowing homers is a recipe for a quick October exit. And two, you’re in great shape when it's debatable whether the guy with a 3.50 ERA (3.47 FIP) and an MLB-best 257 strikeouts should start Game 1.

Only the powerless Tigers hit fewer home runs than the Guardians during the regular season. Hopefully their lineup, plus the cooler weather in New York, allows Cole to keep the ball in the park in Game 1 (and potentially Game 4 in Cleveland). Either way, I feel really good about the rotation. I think this is the Yankees' best 1-2-3 postseason punch since 2009. Is it even close? I don't think so.

Boone said the Yankees are leaning toward a three-man rotation in the ALDS but nothing is final. The wonky schedule allows Cole to start Game 4 on normal rest. Game 5 would then have to be Cortes on short rest, Jameson Taillon or Domingo German, or a bullpen game. As always, the best option for Game 5 is winning the series in three or four games.

Taillon’s role undefined

For a team that says it hasn’t decided whether to use a three-man rotation in the ALDS, the Yankees are talking like a team that’s decided to use a three-man rotation in the ALDS. Boone told Justin Shackil that Taillon’s bullpen role – he specifically mentioned “bullpen role” – could vary, and he could even close games. I guess that means Taillon’s a reliever, huh?

I mentioned this a few weeks ago but, if the Yankees were planning to use Taillon as a reliever in the postseason, it would’ve been nice to have him do it once or twice in the regular season. He’s never pitched out of the bullpen in his career and now the Yankees will ask him to do it for the first time in October. Not ideal, but also probably not a big deal either. At least I hope not.

I am irrationally excited about Taillon as a reliever. He got his home run issues back under control late in the season (0.85 HR/9 and 7.3% HR/FB in his last five starts) and he has a better than average swing and miss rate on his fastball. Add a little velocity in the bullpen and Taillon could really be something. Jameson Taillon, Postseason Closer would be an unexpected turn and also kinda fun if it works.

Holmes may not be available in Game 1

Clay Holmes is making progress as he works his way back from a shoulder issue that required a cortisone shot. He told Hoch he’s been able to throw “free and easy” and with his usual velocity in the bullpen, and he’s going to face hitters Monday. Holmes expects to be on the ALDS roster but he might not be available in Game 1.

“I’m not exactly sure,” Holmes told Erik Boland when asked when he expects to be ready to pitch in an actual game.

Carrying a pitcher on the roster who is not available in Game 1 isn’t ideal, but the ALDS schedule is pretty screwy, and there are off-days after Game 1 and Game 2. Face hitters Monday, watch Game 1 on Tuesday, make sure everything checks out on the off-day Wednesday, then be ready to go for Game 2 on Thursday. Sound good? Seems plausible.

The risk with putting Holmes on the roster is he doesn’t feel good after facing hitters Monday, and you either have to drop him (by rule, he would then be ineligible for the ALCS roster), or you have to continue playing a man short. It’s a calculated risk, but the reward is worth it if Holmes is healthy. He’s a potential late-inning difference-maker. Not having him in Game 1 would stink. If that’s what it takes to have him the rest of the series, so be it.

Carpenter likely to be on ALDS roster

Matt Carpenter will likely be on the ALDS roster. He took a bunch of at-bats against live pitching at the stay ready camp in Somerset while the Yankees were in Texas, and he doesn’t seem to have any restrictions. "I fully expect (Carpenter to be on the ALDS roster). He looks great. He's been getting all his live ABs, he actually took Nestor deep (in an intrasquad game) yesterday,” Boone said Sunday (video).

While Carpenter will obviously be on the roster for his bat, he’s been able to run the bases with no issues, so this isn’t an automatic pinch-runner situation. He’s planning to work out at first base and in the outfield soon. I’m not sure the Yankees will play him there in the ALDS, but at least the foot is healthy enough to do it. I am ready for Carpenter to go all Raul Ibanez this postseason. Instant legend status.

“I feel like I’m ready. Just the way I feel physically,” Carpenter told Hoch. “I’ve been able to get some at-bats here recently and have competitive at-bats.”

Miscellany

Giancarlo Stanton has resumed working out in the outfield just so he’s an option there during the postseason. I’m not sure the Yankees will actually use him in the outfield (his Achilles still isn’t 100%), but he’s preparing for it … Wandy Peralta is good to go. He faced hitters in Somerset last week and the last few days in the Bronx. He’ll be on the ALDS roster … DJ LeMahieu is not a lock for the ALDS roster. His toe is still bothering him and they’re going to see how he feels the next few days before committing to him. My guess is LeMahieu will be on the roster. We’ll see.

2. ALDS x-factors. Congrats to the Rays. They are the first team to lose a postseason series to an AL Central team since the Blue Jays lost to Cleveland in the 2016 ALCS. AL Central teams were a combined 4-19 in the postseason from 2017-21 before the Guardians swept Tampa in the Wild Card Series this weekend. The Rays scored one run (on a solo homer by the No. 9 hitter) in 24 innings.

Cleveland and the Yankees will meet for the third time in the last six postseasons. The Yankees of course rallied from a 2-0 series deficit to win the 2017 ALDS, then they swept the best-of-three Wild Card Series in the 2020 pandemic postseason. They also won the regular season series 5-1 and outscored the Guardians 38-14 in the six games this year (remember this game?).

Of course, what happened in 2017 and 2020 and earlier this season has no bearing on this week’s ALDS. The Guardians are very good – they've won 26 of their last 32 games dating back to Sept. 4th – and the Cleveland team the Yankees last faced in July is not the team they are now. Franmil Reyes is gone, Oscar Gonzalez and Josh Naylor are healthy, etc.

“A team that’s young and really come of age, and ran away with the division,” Aaron Boone told Max Goodman about the Guardians on Sunday. “It’s a team that’s athletic, plays really good defense, deep pitching staff, and a team with a lot of confidence.”

For the Yankees, the formula this postseason is get excellent starting pitching, sock a few home runs, and use only your three or four best relievers. Their Wild Card Series with Tampa was very low event (those games were legit boring) and indicative of Cleveland’s postseason formula. They want to smother you with power arms and have to figure out how to scratch out runs however possible.

With that in mind, let’s dig a little deeper into this ALDS matchup and see what the Yankees need to do to beat Cleveland and advance to the ALCS for the third time in six years.

The velocity war

Velocity reigns supreme in October. During the regular season only 15.9% of all pitches were at least 95 mph, and 28.6% of fastballs. Raise it to at least 98 mph, and those numbers are 2.7% and 4.9%, respectively. In the Wild Card Series it was 28.5% of all pitches at 95+ mph (49.7% of fastballs) and 9.7% at 98+ mph (17.0% of fastballs). October is a different animal.

No team in baseball threw a higher percentage of pitches at 95+ mph and 98+ mph than the Yankees during the regular season, and it wasn’t close. Cleveland was much further down the leaderboard:

95 mph or better
1. Yankees: 26.6% of all pitches thrown
2. Reds: 23.4%
…
25: Guardians: 12.2%

98 mph or better
1. Yankees: 8.0% of all pitches thrown
2. Reds: 6.1%
…
16. Guardians: 2.9%

Among pitchers expected to do heavy lifting in the postseason, Nestor Cortes and Scott Effross are outliers with their funkiness. Just about everyone else the Yankees will throw at Cleveland will shove velocity – I’m talking upper 90s here – down their throats. The ideal Game 1 pitching plan is Gerrit Cole to Jonathan Loaisiga. Power on top of power.

Needless to say, some teams are better at hitting velocity than others, and that applies to both high velocity and low velocity. There’s an art to hitting slow stuff. Here’s how the Yankees and Guardians have fared on each side of the 95 mph threshold (MLB ranks in parenthesis, and to be clear, this is fastballs only):

I’m surprised Cleveland was so bad against sub-95 mph heaters this year! Shocked, really. I didn’t expect that at all. Maybe the Yankees should tell their pitchers to throw fastballs with 50% effort to keep their velocity down? (Joking.) The Guardians were more effective against 95 mph and better, though they still weren’t great, so this isn’t bad news for the Yankees. Just unusual.

(Similar to the Yankees, the Rays have a high velocity pitching staff, and Cleveland couldn’t touch them in the Wild Card Series. They hit .171/.222/.250 in 24 innings in the two games, but still managed to win because Tampa hit .115/.179/.154.)

The Yankees had a middling AVG on both sides of the 95 mph threshold but they slugged plenty enough. That is the biggest difference between these two offenses. Regardless of velocity, when the Yankees get into a pitch, they do damage. When the Guardians get into a pitch, they’re more apt to spray singles and doubles.

Cleveland has three big velocity relievers (Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan) and that’s really it. Cal Quantrill, their ALDS Game 1 starter, is their hardest throwing starter with a 93.3 mph average heater. Jameson Taillon is the soft-tosser in the Yankees' rotation and his average heater was 94.1 mph this year. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are excellent, but their average velocity is below league average, and the Yankees hammer average velocity.

These two teams really could not be any more different stylistically. The Yankees built their offense and pitching staff around power. The Guardians have more finesse. There’s no right way to win in this game. Both styles can work. On paper, it looks like the Yankees have a chance to really overwhelm Cleveland in the ALDS. That they couldn’t muster much against a similarly built Tampa staff (albeit in a two-game sample) is an encouraging sign. It’s just a matter of execution.

The running game

Under the guidance of new third base coach Luis Rojas, the Yankees made a concerted effort to better combat the running game this season, and it worked well. Extremely well. With almost the exact same pitching staff and one new catcher, the year-over-year improvement is remarkable:

The Yankees put an emphasis on shutting the running game down this season and shut it down they did. It’s not all on the catchers. The pitchers varied their times to the plate better, they made more pickoff attempts, and they used set plays to keep runners close. How many times did we see Jose Trevino make a snap throw to first after Anthony Rizzo snuck in behind the runner?

Thanks to this newfound ability to limit the running game, the ALDS is strength vs. strength on the bases. The Yankees shut down the running game and Cleveland uses the running game as much as any team in baseball. They’re a bit of an old school offense. They slash and dash, and have that one star in the middle of the lineup to do what stars do*.

* Jose Ramirez was a major factor in the Wild Card Series. He hit the game-winning two-run homer in Game 1 and also made a brilliant defensive play to save a run in Game 2. The Rays have a bunch of good players but no stars. The Guardians have a star and that star made big time plays in big time games.

No postseason team stole more bases (119) or attempted more steals (146) than the Guardians during the regular season, and only the Dodgers had a higher stolen base success rate (84% vs. 82%). Only 32 players stole as many as 18 bases this season and five are Guardians: Ramirez (20-for-27), Myles Straw (21-for-22), Andres Gimenez (20-for-23), Steven Kwan (19-for-24), and Amed Rosario (18-for-22).

The best way to prevent stolen bases is to prevent baserunners. When runners do inevitably reach, the cat and mouse game will begin. The Guardians love to run (and they need to run because the offense lacks power) and the Yankees are positively elite at shutting down the running game. If Cleveland starts hitting homers, the Yankees are doomed. But, if they don’t, and the Yankees can prevent steals, the Guardians will have a real hard time scoring.

Judge’s supporting cast

I have no idea whether the Guardians will pitch to Aaron Judge. They’re not going to give him the full Barry Bonds treatment and put up four fingers every at-bat, but will they pitch around him like the Orioles did last weekend? Cleveland issued 14 intentional walks during the regular season, tenth fewest in baseball. I’m not sure that regular season number matters much in the ALDS though.

With all due respect to everyone who had MVP seasons the last 15+ years (Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, etc.), this version of Judge is the closest thing we’ve seen to peak Bonds since Bonds. He doesn’t get much to hit, but when he does get something to hit, he hits a laser. Judge doesn’t seem to miss anything. His damage-to-opportunity ratio is off the charts.

Pitching to Jose Abreu on a random June afternoon is very different than pitching to Judge in October, when one swing can alter your season. Until I see otherwise, I’m going to assume the Guardians will pitch Judge carefully to the point where it looks like they're pitching around him (i.e. nothing but soft stuff down and away), and if it leads to a walk, it leads to a walk. This is a textbook “can’t let him beat you” situation.

That will put the onus on the middle of the order. Realistically, I don’t think you can expect much offense from Harrison Bader, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the catchers, and even Josh Donaldson. Did you know Donaldson closed out the season in a 5-for-37 (.135) skid with 15 strikeouts? Perhaps Cleveland’s lower velocity starters will allow his bat to play up in the ALDS. Hope so.

Point is, either the Guardians will pitch to Judge, in which case great, or they’re going to avoid him and make others beat him, in which case it’ll be on Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres to pick up the slack. If others contribute, wonderful, but those three figure to hit directly behind Judge in some order. They are the keys to the kingdom. Hard to see the Yankees advancing with those dudes being less than very good.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. As I chronicled Aaron Judge’s regular season, I was too busy playing around with the home run leaderboard that I never bothered to check the OPS leaderboard. Here is the OPS leaderboard among players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title:

1. Aaron Judge: 1.111
2. Yordan Alvarez: 1.019
3. Paul Goldschmidt: .981
4. Aaron Judge’s worst month: .922
5. Jose Altuve: .921

Judge’s worst month, a .257/.344/.578 slash line in June, was the third best non-Judge hitter in baseball this season. I get the feeling I’m going to stumble upon random incredible Judge stats all winter and share them here. This is no way a complaint … I have not seen any PitchCom issues during the Wild Card Series. At least nothing beyond the usual stuff we saw throughout the season. Padres lefty Adrian Morejon had some trouble Saturday night, though they swapped out the receiver, and that seemed to fix it. I was a bit worried pitchers would be unable to hear the thing with loud postseason crowds, but there was no real evidence that was the case. Maybe it’ll be an issue as we deeper into the postseason with louder crowds. So far, so good though … And finally, Michael Kay was in the ESPN booth for the Cardinals-Phillies series and it was extremely weird to hear him call important non-Yankees games (if you want to get mad, close your eyes and pretend Bryce Harper was a Yankee when Kay made this call). I understand why it doesn’t happen, but man, I wish local announcers could call their team in the postseason. They know the team better than anyone, and after fans sit through 162 games with their home broadcasters, I think it would be cool to listen to them during the most important time of the year too. Baseball is a very regional sport. I wish it would stay regional with local broadcasts in the postseason.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)