October 7th, 2022: Judge, Cole, Stanton, Catchers, Wild Card Series, Mailbag

Fittingly, the Yankees won 99 games in the year of No. 99. An objectively great season, but if you would have told me on July 1st the Yankees would not win 100 games, I don’t think I would've believed you. Their +240 run differential was second only to the Dodgers and their insane +334 run differential. That’s the third best ever in the Modern Era (since 1900).

The Yankees finished second in runs scored per game (4.98) and third in runs allowed per game (3.50), their first time ranking in the top three of both since 1961. Nothing notable happened after Tuesday’s post (other than No. 62), so the Yankees will indeed host either the Guardians or Rays when the ALDS begins next Tuesday. Here is the postseason bracket:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bye: No. 1 Astros and No. 2 Yankees
WC: No. 6 Rays at No. 3 Guardians (winner plays Yankees)
WC: No. 5 Mariners at No. 4 Blue Jays (winner plays Astros)

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bye: No. 1 Dodgers at No. 2 Braves
WC: No. 6 Phillies at No. 3 Cardinals (winner plays Braves)
WC: No. 5 Padres at No. 4 Mets (winner plays Dodgers)

The Yankees will have home field advantage against every team except the Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets. Hopefully they avoid those four teams and not just for home field advantage purposes. They’re the four best non-Yankees teams in baseball (pretty clearly, I think).

Like the last few years, the usual Tuesday/Friday post schedule goes out the window in the postseason. The mailbag goes on hold too (unless I get the urge to answer questions) and we just kinda go with the flow in October. I anticipate a post after every game/leading into the next game. Maybe not until the next day, but there will be a post. I’ll do my best to get it published expeditiously.

So, you all ready to go crazy together? We have a couple days to chill out and rosterbate before all hell breaks loose in the Bronx. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. Was it just me, or did it feel like the regular season ended after Aaron Judge hit his 62nd home run? Not in a bad way, I mean the rest of that game and the last game didn’t matter anymore. Nothing was on the line and the Yankees were just playing out the string. I was very invested in Judge chasing Roger Maris, then when he broke the record, it was truly meaningless baseball. Anyway, here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

A wrap on Judge’s season

In the end, Judge did not win the Triple Crown. He finished .005 points behind Luis Arraez in the batting race, and that’s too bad. A Triple Crown would have ruled. Judge has to settle for leading baseball in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wRC+, runs, runs batted in, total bases, win probability added, championship probability added, and every version of WAR. Not to mention an AL single-season record 62 home runs. I don’t think he’ll lose sleep over the Triple Crown.

“Just an all-time great season,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after No. 62. “He’s been the leader of this team, for a division-winning team, one for which he’s gotten big hit after big hit. I think it’s a historically great season, and one we’ll talk about when we’re long gone.”

That is indeed true. There are certain individual seasons that stick in your mind forever (for me it’s Judge’s rookie season, Alex Rodriguez in 2007, the 1998 Yankees as a whole, and a few others) and Judge’s 2022 will be one of them. It’s not just the 62 homers. It was all the incredibly important hits when the Yankees were cratering, it was playing center field and playing it well, it was rejecting a $200M extension and then making even more money. It was all of it.

I don’t know that non-Yankees fans understand how good Judge is overall. Yankees fans know (and if you’re reading this, you certainly know), but this guy is so much more than home runs. He’s a great defender, he runs the bases well, he hits for average (even last year he hit .287), and he represents the organization and the sport well. Judge is everything a team could want in a franchise player.

Judge finished with a .322/.425/.686 (207 wRC+) batting line in a career high 157 games and a career high 696 plate appearances. Only seven players batted more times. He hit .346/.520/.721 (222 wRC+) with runners in scoring position and .349/.502/.784 (252 wRC+) in the second half, when the rest of the Yankees were trying their hardest to blow the division. Judge’s second half ranks (min. 200 plate appearances):

• AVG: .346 (2nd, Jeff McNeil led with .356)
• OBP: .502 (1st, Freddie Freeman was second at .421)
• SLG: .784 (1st, JT Realmuto was second at .583)
• wRC+: 252 (1st, Nate Lowe was second at 176)

Furthermore, Judge finished with a 211 OPS+. He’s the first player north of 200 in a 162-game season since Barry Bonds in 2004, and the first AL player since George Brett in 1980. A complete list of Yankees with a 200 OPS+ season: Babe Ruth (10 times), Lou Gehrig (three times), Mickey Mantle (three times), and now Judge. For at least one season, Judge elbowed his way into the franchise’s Mount Rushmore.

Baseball Reference has Judge at +10.6 WAR, which is better than every Mike Trout season and the best by a Yankee since Mantle’s +11.3 WAR in 1957. FanGraphs has Judge at +11.4 WAR. It’s a top 20 season ever. I guess this is my last chance to play around with the 2022 home run leaderboard, so I’m going to do that now:

1. Aaron Judge: 62
2. Aaron Judge against righties: 48
3. Aaron Judge if he retired on Aug. 22nd: 47
4. Kyle Schwarber: 46
5. Mike Trout: 40
6. Pete Alonso: 40
7. Austin Riley: 38
8. Yordan Alvarez: 37
9. Christian Walker: 36
10. Aaron Judge against fastballs: 35
…
17. Aaron Judge in the first half: 33
18. Aaron Judge on the road: 32
…
27. Aaron Judge at home: 30
28. Aaron Judge in the second half: 29

I can’t decide which of the 62 homers was my favorite. I think it’s the walk-off against Jordan Romano (video). Is that too obvious? That was May 10th and for me, it was the “okay, Judge is going off this year, hell yes” moment. Know what I mean? The moment when it set in that he was going to have an all-time great season. Yeah, that was my favorite.

“Everybody knows who Aaron Judge is,” Luis Severino told Hoch that night. “In ’17, he should have won MVP that year, no doubt about it. He is a great hitter, a great player. In situations like tonight, you know that Aaron Judge is going to come through.”

Judge will win AL MVP this year and he will sign one of the richest contracts in baseball history this offseason, maybe the richest on an annual basis. The rational half of my brain knows there is a point in every negotiation where it makes sense to walk away. The other half of my brain says we should each get to give Hal Steinbrenner a Stone Cold Stunner if he lets Judge walk.

I don’t know what will happen in the postseason. The Yankees probably won’t win the World Series just because the odds are always stacked against any one team winning the World Series. I do know that we just watched one of the greatest individual seasons in the sport’s history. Night in, night out Judge was a reason to tune in. Even in these last few meaningless games, his at-bats were must watch television. What a joy.

“What Aaron has done certainly shoots to the top of the list, to witness the season he just put out there,” Boone told Hoch. “We’ll be talking about it forever, when we’re all long gone. That’s how special of an individual season it’s been.”

Cole breaks Guidry’s record

It came with much less fanfare than No. 62 but it’s history nonetheless: Gerrit Cole is now the Yankees’ single-season strikeout leader. He broke Ron Guidry’s record with his first strikeout Tuesday night (video), and he finished the season with an MLB-leading 257 strikeouts. Corbin Burnes was the runner-up with 243, and Dylan Cease was second in the AL with 227. Cole is the first Yankee to lead the league in strikeouts since Al Downing in 1964.

“I’ve been waiting ever since you put the Yankees uniform on for this moment, because I knew you were going to do it at some point in time. You’ve earned it,” Guidry told Cole on a call played over the clubhouse speakers after Tuesday’s game, according to Hoch. Here is the Yankees’ new single-season strikeout leaderboard:

1. Gerrit Cole, 2022: 257
2. Ron Guidry, 1978: 248
3. Gerrit Cole, 2021: 243
4. Jack Chesbro, 1904: 239 (the Yankees were still the Highlanders in 1904)
5. CC Sabathia, 2011: 230
6. Luis Severino, 2017: 230

“When you think about the Yankees, oftentimes we’re reminded of the legends that live in Monument Park and the accomplishments they’ve had,” Cole told Hoch after the game. “Even just to tie the record, let alone break it, it’s a bit surreal. Obviously, on a night like tonight, it’s just like, whoa. That’s a lot of history going on.”

I mentioned this last week: context is important, and Cole’s strikeout rate this year is “only” 46% better than league average. When Guidry set the record in 1978, his strikeout rate was 98% better than average. These are much different times, though that cuts both ways. Guidry threw 273.2 innings in 1978. Cole is one of only eight pitchers to get to 200 innings this year. In the end, taking the ball enough times to pile up 248+ strikeouts is impressive no matter the era.

Cole’s start Tuesday was a continuation of the last two months – he pitched very well and then gave up a multi-run homer that changed the complexion of the game – and his overall season numbers are really good, but short of ace-like: 3.50 ERA (3.46 FIP) in 200.2 innings. The homer bug is a real concern. We’re talking a 1.79 HR/9 (19.1% HR/FB) in his last 136 innings. Yikes.

Two weeks ago Boone said Cole would start ALDS Game 1, but the Yankees were noncommittal earlier this week, with pitching coach Matt Blake telling Dan Martin nothing is set in stone. Cole said all the right things when asked about someone else possibly starting Game 1. From Martin:

“I just want to win,” Cole said. “We haven’t talked about it, but I’m not assuming anything. I’m not here to be the ‘Game 1 guy’ and be worried about that. I’m just here to do my job. Whatever they ask me to do.”

…

“It takes everybody to win,” Cole said. “That’s the name of the game in the postseason. We all have the same goal. My goal is to win in the playoffs. That’s all I want.”

We’ll find out which way the Yankees go soon. For now, I think they have three very good to great starting pitchers going into the postseason, and I’m glad Cole broke Guidry’s record. It’s not 62 homers, but it’s still a pretty cool piece of history. Hard to believe Guidry’s record lasted as long as it did given the recent explosion in strikeouts.

October Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton’s back. Maybe not back back, but back. He went deep in three straight games earlier this week and closed out the regular season with a nice three-game heater (4-for-9 with three homers). That was after an ugly 6-for-49 (.122) stretch with 28 strikeouts. If nothing else, it makes me feel a bit better about Giancarlo’s ability to contribute heading into October.

“I had good at-bats from start to finish, felt comfortable seeing it well, so good build off of last game,” Stanton told Greg Joyce earlier this week. “Feeling more comfortable in my feet, in my legs, so good to work from and tune it up the (last few regular season games) for sure. It’s what’s needed. Gotta get it done. (I’m) in a good spot.”

All three home runs this week came on fastballs, including one at 99.3 mph. Stanton was having major problems catching up to velocity the last few weeks. He was discombobulated at the plate – he was kicking out his back foot and had zero balance in his swing – and pitchers could throw heaters right by him. Look at Stanton’s back foot here. This is all wrong (video):

It didn’t need to be 98, 99, 100. Stanton had trouble with 94 and 95 mph the last few weeks. From Aug. 25th (the day he came off the injured list) through Sept. 27th (the day the Yankees clinched), Giancarlo had a 35.2% whiff rate on fastballs in the zone. Last year that number was 23.8%. In recent days we’ve kinda sorta maybe seen signs of progress. Fingers crossed.

I’m curious to see how teams approach Judge in the postseason. Will they go right after him? Pitch around him and force others to beat them? The Yankees will need Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and everyone else to do damage one way or another, and especially if Judge gets the Barry Bonds treatment. If Giancarlo truly did get things figured out these last few days, it couldn’t have happened at a better time.

The catcher situation

I honestly have no idea what to expect behind the plate in the postseason. Kyle Higashioka went 17-for-48 (.354) with two doubles and three homers in his last 15 games, and he started six of the final nine games too. That includes starting the day game of Tuesday’s doubleheader after starting the night game Monday. Then he started Wednesday afternoon too.

The late season hot streak and workload uptick, plus the Yankees’ commitment to Higashioka, suggests he could again be in line to start in the postseason. HOWEVA, Higashioka’s workload only increased after the Yankees clinched the AL East and a Wild Card Series bye. Were they simply backing off Jose Trevino after the heaviest workload of his career, and resting him before the postseason? I dunno.

We’ll see what happens behind the plate in October. For now, I just want to put a bow on the regular season catching situation. It looked like it had the potential to be bad – very bad – coming into the season, but things turned out pretty well. Higashioka and Trevino combined to start 161 of 162 games (Rob Brantly started one of the May 22nd doubleheader games while Higashioka was on the COVID list). Their numbers and ranks among the 30 teams and their catchers:

• AVG: .236 (11th in MLB)
• OBP: .272 (22nd)
• SLG: .384 (10th)
• wRC+: 85 (16th)
• HR: 20 (10th)
• FanGraphs framing: +24.7 runs (1st, White Sox second at +13.2)
• Statcast framing: +18 runs (1st, Rangers second at +14)
• WAR: +5.4 (4th behind Blue Jays, Phillies, Braves)

The average catcher hit .228/.295/.368 (89 wRC+) this year and Higashioka and Trevino more or less matched that while providing top of the line framing and defense. Trevino was an All-Star (!) and his midseason hot streak contributed meaningfully to that huge division lead the Yankees had to lean on in the second half. Higashioka had his moments too.

I’m very happy to have been wrong about the catching situation. I figured Higashioka and Trevino would frame well (Trevino led all catchers in every public framing metric) but I thought they had a chance to be the worst hitting catcher tandem in the league given their track records coming into 2022. League average offense plus great defense makes for a very good catcher situation. Well done, fellas. See you in October.

Miscellany

I was glad to see Lou Trivino get into Wednesday’s game. He hadn’t pitched since last Tuesday, and given all the bullpen injuries, I was getting a bit worried. Trivino threw 21.2 innings with a 1.66 ERA (3.34 FIP) and a 23.7% strikeout rate and 51.7% ground ball rate after coming over the deadline. Would’ve guessed he had more strikeouts than that. Either way, Trivino’s been a quality pickup … The Yankees had 93 pinch-hit plate appearances this year and would you guess that is more or less than last year? I would’ve guessed more seeing how they had several defense-first players in the lineup everyday, but it’s not. They had 94 pinch-hit plate appearances a year ago. The pinch-hitters hit .187/.323/.293 (85 wRC+) this year. It was .218/.351/.359 (106 wRC+) last year. Matt Carpenter led with 12 pinch-hit plate appearances (1-for-8 with four walks) and most of the rest went to regulars on a day off. I wouldn’t put much stock in those 12 plate appearances for Carpenter. Hopefully he’s healthy enough to be an option off the bench in the ALDS. The short porch beckons … And finally, this is something to file away for the future, but in a completely meaningless game like Wednesday’s (absolutely nothing was on the line), I hope the Yankees let Oswaldo Cabrera play all nine positions one of these years. He could totally do it. Only five players have ever done it, but with fewer September call ups, it’s a little more difficult now. You’d have to shift guys between positions rather than sub them out while Cabrera moves around. It’s doable though. Maybe next year.

2. Wild Card Series rooting guide. Friday afternoon the new best-of-three Wild Card Series will get underway (here’s the schedule). The Yankees will watch from home and for a good reason – they won the AL East and earned a Wild Card Series bye. They get to skip an entire postseason round, which greatly increases their World Series odds for obvious reasons.

"We'll probably take a day off as a group after (Game 162),” Boone told Max Goodman when asked what the Yankees plan to do while waiting out the bye. “And then probably have some form or shape of some intrasquad, live BP, simulated type of stuff for at least a couple of those days.”

The Yankees will play either the Guardians or Rays in the ALDS. Any team can beat any other team in a short series in this game, so rooting for one matchup over the other is a bit pointless (you’re going to face a great team no matter what), but we do it anyway. This is my matchup rooting guide each postseason:

The best thing to root for in that Guardians vs. Rays series is a full three-game series with long games that force both teams to empty their bullpens, use starters in relief, the works. Root for a taxing series that puts the other team at the biggest disadvantage possible going into the ALDS. I want them to show up to Game 1 tired and possibly undermanned in the bullpen.

"I think putting ourselves in this position, giving us a chance to let our competition play against each other, beat up on each other before they play us. That'll hopefully help us out a little bit," Boone told Goodman. The man gets it.

That all said, the whole “any team can beat any other team” logic won’t stop us from digging into the Guardians and Rays, and trying to figure out which one presents the most favorable ALDS matchup. Let’s dive in, shall we?

Cleveland Guardians

2022 record: 92-70 (+64 run differential)
Head-to-head vs. Yankees: Yankees won season series 5-1 (+24 run differential)

Reasons to face them: They’re an AL Central team! Did you know AL Central teams are 4-19 with a -67 run differential in the postseason since 2017? On average, they’ve been outscored by 2.91 runs per game in those 23 postseason games. Crazy. The AL Central is MLB’s weakest division and there are several ways to show that:

• The five AL Central teams collectively went 191-238 (.445) against the other five divisions in 2022. That’s a 72-win pace in a 162-game season.
• Cleveland played only 68 games against teams with winning records this year and they went 34-34 in those games. The Yankees played 93 (they went 50-43).
• AL Central teams ranked 9th, 14th, 20th, 24th, and 27th in total WAR this year. Four AL East teams finished in the top 11.

Cleveland won 92 games this year and that’s a lofty total, but are their 92 wins as impressive as, say, the Blue Jays’ 92 wins? Given the divisions they reside and the competition they face, I think it’s fair to say no, it is not. The unbalanced schedule has a way of making teams look better (or worse) than they really are. The AL Central has been Exhibit A the last what, 10-15 years?

I think the No. 1 reason to want to face the Guardians in the ALDS is their decided lack of power. They play a fun and exciting brand of baseball because they rarely strike out (MLB best 18.2%) and they run the bases aggressively (119 steals and +11.6 base running runs), but fun and exciting is not always the same thing as winning. The 2019-21 league numbers:

Regular season runs per game: 4.68
Postseason runs per game: 4.23

Regular season home runs per game: 1.30
Postseason home runs per game: 1.37

Every year, like clockwork, run scoring goes down in the postseason yet the home run rate stays the same (or even increases). Home runs take on added importance in the postseason, yet night after night we hear announcers say you can’t rely on the long ball and have to manufacture runs, as if building a rally against Justin Verlander or Shane McClanahan is easy.

Cleveland makes more contact than any team in baseball, yet only the punchless Tigers hit fewer home runs this season. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor will take you deep, rookie outfielder Oscar Gonzalez too, but by and large this is an offense that has to scratch and claw for every run. That one big game-changing swing doesn’t come often.

Home runs have been a problem for the Yankees the last 2-3 months and it’s not just Gerrit Cole. In theory, a lineup that doesn’t hit the ball out of the park much is the ideal matchup for a pitching staff that has been a little too home run prone lately. Cleveland’s offense had the lowest average exit velocity (87.2 mph) and lowest barrel rate (4.9%) in baseball this season. It’s an offense that produces weak contact facing a pitching staff built to generate weak contact.

And! And the Yankees have an elite defense, statistically. They led baseball with +129 DRS and were fifth with +21 OAA. I’m not sure I buy this as a “best in baseball” defense, but as a very good defense that is closer to the top than the middle? Absolutely. A year ago a contact-happy offense would’ve been bad news for the Yankees. Not this year. Not with this defense.

In the postseason you’re going to face a quality pitching staff no matter what, and the Guardians are no different. Very good rotation and a bullpen deep in power righties. Cleveland does tend to lean on their starters more than most teams though. Only four teams let their starters face more batters the third (and fourth) time through the lineup this season:

1. Astros: 934 batters faced after two turns through the lineup
2. Mariners: 933
3. Rockies: 902
4. Guardians: 886
5. Padres: 880

Terry Francona is a seasoned postseason manager who has shown he knows how to leverage his top relievers (Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, former Yankees prospect Trevor Stephan, etc.) in the game’s most important situations. If Francona lets his starter go through a lineup a third time, great. That’ll help the Yankees. His track record says he knows how to run a bullpen.

To sum it all up, the reasons to root for an ALDS matchup with the Guardians is their powerless offense and the likelihood they are not as good as their 92 wins would lead you to believe. Their pitching staff is quite good and that’s just the way it is in October. You have to beat good pitching. That underpowered offense is the No. 1 reason to want to see Cleveland in the ALDS.

Reasons to avoid them: The Guardians won the AL Central by 10 games but they were tied for first as recently as Sept. 4th. This team went 24-6 to close out the regular season. There’s no real evidence teams that finish the regular season strong have more success in the postseason, though I’m sure Cleveland feels confident right now. That confidence will only increase after a Wild Card Series win. They’re feeling good about themselves, for sure.

Even without the power, making so much contact is a plus, and while the stats say the Yankees are elite defensively, they have a shortstop prone to mistakes, a second baseman without great range, and an infielder in left field. Unlike years past, the Yankees bullpen doesn’t miss a ton of (24.2% strikeout rate). Encouraging balls in play in the late innings of close games is risky.

All the power righties on the pitching staff – there’s a chance the Guardians won’t carry a single lefty on their postseason roster – could chew the Yankees up, though every team loads up with power righties in October, so the Guardians are no different than anyone else. Ultimately, the Guardians separate themselves from everyone else with contact and that’s the reason to avoid them. Put the ball and force the issue, and good things can happen.

Tampa Bay Rays

2022 record: 86-76 (+52 run differential)
Head-to-head vs. Yankees: Yankees won season series 11-8 (+6 run differential)

Reasons to face them: The Rays are difficult to measure up because their roster is a bunch of interchangeable parts. By design, of course. That’s what they do. They platoon hitters and their platoons go beyond lefty/righty. Manny Margot has a golfy swing that works best at the bottom of the zone …

… so the Rays use him against sinkerballers and changeup guys who live at the knees. Isaac Paredes hits non-fastballs better than fastballs, so he starts against guys with average fastballs and good breaking stuff. The Rays are really good at stuff like that. There seems to be a limit on how far this team-building approach can take you, but it can work.

Similar to the Guardians, the Rays are a low power team, finishing 25th in homers (Brandon Lowe, their top power threat, is done for the year with a back injury). They don’t make as much contact as Cleveland. Their 23.3% team strikeout rate is a bit worse than the 22.4% league average, and several hitters (Christian Bethancourt, Ji-Man Choi, etc.) are prone to whiffs. Also, the Rays make a lot (a league-leading 73) of outs on the bases.

Keep the Rays in the ballpark and they’ll have a hard time generating offense because they don’t put the ball in play as much as they should, and they run themselves into outs. Tampa finished second in runs per game last year and they won 100 games. This year they’re 21st and they won only 86 games. They always pitch well. This year the bats are lacking.

Reasons to avoid them: Aren’t you sick of the Rays? I hate their stupid faces. We see them like every other week. Every single game these two teams play is intense. Doesn’t matter where they sit in the standings. When they hook up, the games are close and a battle. Why would a postseason series be different? The ALDS would be a major grind.

On the mound, the Rays welcomed Tyler Glasnow back from Tommy John surgery two weeks ago, and he’s looked like Tyler Glasnow (10 strikeouts in 6.2 innings). Tampa has him on a pitch limit and he’s not going deep into games at all, but 3-4 innings of Glasnow is still a handful. Drew Rasmussen and Corey Kluber are the kinda slider heavy righties who can give the Yankees fits.

The biggest difference between the Guardians and Rays, at least during the regular season, is how much they lean on their starters. Only four teams let their starters go through the lineup a third (and fourth) time as much as Cleveland. Tampa’s starters had the second fewest batters faced the third (and fourth) time through the order. You know how it is, right? The Rays will parade out reliever after reliever to get the matchups they want. They're very good at it.

* * *

It’s best not to overthink this. The Yankees will have to beat a great team every step of the way to get where they want to go, and both the Guardians and Rays are capable of beating the Yankees three times in five games. I think I would prefer to face the Guardians in the ALDS? I’m not sure. That might be my “sick of the Rays” bias. I’ll say this much: I’d rather face Cleveland or Tampa than the Blue Jays or Mariners. I see those two are a notch above these two.

"Both good teams," Aaron Judge told Bryan Hoch about the Guardians and Rays. "It's going to be a tough series no matter who we face. We've gone back and forth with both those teams. I'm looking forward to whoever we face."

3. General postseason thoughts. Postseason baseball begins Friday and I have some general postseason thoughts, so let’s get to ‘em.

A 12-man pitching staff

The Yankees will not have Ron Marinaccio in the ALDS. His shin injury landed him on the injured list earlier this week and that takes him out of the first round. The Yankees are calling it a stress reaction and are hopeful he will be ready for the ALCS, should they advance. Marinaccio’s changeup made him a quality option against both righties and lefties. Now he’s unavailable.

“He definitely wants to try and pitch through it, and there's probably even some thought that he could pitch through it," Aaron Boone told Marly Rivera. "It's kind of a gray area, but you also worry about it turning into a stress fracture, or does it compromise him in other ways as well. So we've made that decision to go ahead and IL him. He's had an outstanding season, been an important part of what's gone on down there. And again, hopefully we get him back if we can advance to the next round, and this time can be valuable and get him just a little bit healthier and stronger, and we'll continue to evaluate that."

When I looked at the potential ALDS roster earlier this week, I defaulted to 13 pitchers, and the more I think about it, the more I believe 12 pitchers is the way to go. The ALDS will be at most five games in seven days. I think the extra position player, particularly if he’s a speed guy for pinch-running situations late in close games, will be more useful than a 13th pitcher.

The Marinaccio injury removes a postseason-capable pitcher and inches the Yankees one step closer to Aroldis Chapman making the ALDS roster. That’s not good. Instead of forcing a pitcher on the roster as a 1-to-1 replacement for Marinaccio, the Yankees are better off going with an extra position player. How’s this roster look?

Maybe it’s Peraza instead of Locastro? Peraza hasn’t played much but he’s impressed when he has played. He’s not as fast as Locastro though he does bring speed, and he brings more to the table offensively and defensively*. If you want to maximize the pinch-running skill, Locastro’s the guy. Peraza’s the better player though and can contribute in other ways.

* LeMahieu went 4-for-16 during his late cameo and said his toe still bothers him. That could be another reason to carry Peraza on the postseason roster, to have another infielder. “This time in-between will be important. I feel like he’s still guarded against it a little bit. You can see him favor it a little bit,” Boone told Dan Martin about LeMahieu’s toe.

In the past the Yankees used late September games to prepare Tyler Wade for a postseason pinch-running role by, you know, using him as in important pinch-runner situations. They did not do that with Peraza. Does that mean he’s not in consideration for the role? Or that they’re already comfortable with him pinch-running (I doubt it since he’s basically never done in his career)? Unclear. The larger point is give me the fifth bench player over the eighth reliever in October.

The October of Oswaldo

I think Oswaldo Cabrera has a chance to be That Guy in October. The unsung out of nowhere guy who stars on the field, makes a name for himself, and captures all the attention. Last year it was Tyler Matzek. He was great and they talked about him every game even though he was a reliever and not guaranteed to pitch that night. It was Randy Arozarena in 2020.

Think about what it takes to be That Guy. You have to produce, first and foremost, and Cabrera closed out the regular season with six homers and a .304/.389/.545 (180 wRC+) line in his last 23 games. Cabrera’s swinging it well and feeling good at the plate. It’s not crazy to think he can carry that over into the postseason (maybe not a 180 wRC+, but you know what I mean).

Also, players can make a name for themselves defensively too, and Cabrera is both good with the glove and able to play anywhere. People love love love versatility. A guy who plays great defense (great looking defense, if nothing else) all over the field can become a rock star quickly. I’m not sure how much Cabrera will move around in October, but he’s done it already, and it will be a talking point. We’ll see montages of him making plays all over the field.

It also helps that Oswaldo has some flair in his game. He does a little Soto shuffle after taking a pitch, he plays with energy and enthusiasm, he pumps up his teammates, etc. Cabrera forces you to notice him and that’s not a prerequisite for being That Guy, but it definitely helps. Whether he becomes That Guy or not, I’m excited about Oswaldo. He’s a player.

deGrom and the big picture

According to Joel Sherman, the Mets are considering a plan in which Jacob deGrom would not start in the Wild Card Series this weekend. Max Scherzer will start Game 1 and their Game 2 is starter is TBA. The plan boils down to this:

Mets win Game 1: Start Chris Bassitt in Game 2, and if the Mets lose, deGrom then starts Game 3 with the season on the line. If the Mets win, deGrom then starts Game 1 of the NLDS.

Mets lose Game 1: deGrom starts Game 2 to save the season, then Bassitt would go in a potential Game 3.

“The Game 2 starter could be determined by how we do tomorrow night,” Buck Showalter told Tim Britton on Thursday, indicating they will follow through with the plan.

The idea is potentially saving deGrom for an NLDS Game 1 start, which would allow him and Scherzer to start three times in the NLDS. Start deGrom in Wild Card Series Game 2, and he and Scherzer could only make one start each in the NLDS. They’re looking at it as a way to maximize their overall chances of advancing rather than winning one specific game.

This sorta ties back to what I wrote last week about a bullpen game/fourth starter in ALDS Game 2 given all the off-days. In this ultra-analytical era, teams make decisions based on what creates the most favorable probabilities, and in this case we’re talking World Series odds. Getting three starts out of deGrom and Scherzer in the NLDS most improves their World Series odds, so they’re going to try to do it.

Maybe I’m just a big dumb idiot but boy, this is a best-of-three series we’re talking about here. You have very little margin of error and the Padres are really good. I’d go with deGrom in Game 2 regardless of the Game 1 outcome and close that series out, though that’s easy to say when I’m behind a keyboard and not in the dugout. Still, seems unnecessarily risky. This is representative of how teams think though. It’s about the big picture now, not always what’s right in front of them.

The ceremonial first pitch

So who’s throwing out the ceremonial first pitch Tuesday? The safe bet is a late-1990s dynasty era Yankee who lives locally, someone like Bernie Williams, but maybe it’s CC Sabathia instead? He’s been at Yankee Stadium a bunch of times since retiring. I don’t think it’ll happen but it would be cool to see Brett Gardner back in the Bronx. Maybe it’s too soon for that, but I’d love it. We’ll see who it is in a few days. I hope it’s Gardner. If not, Sabathia would be cool too.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. The owner of an auction house offered $2M for Aaron Judge’s 62nd home run ball, according to ESPN. Mark McGwire’s 70th home run ball in 1998 fetched $3M, the record for a home run ball. The No. 62 ball has been authenticated by MLB and the fan who caught it hasn’t said what he’ll do with it yet. I hope it gets back to Judge. That would be neat. But yeah, I would jump on the $2M in a heartbeat. Match the offer and get the ball, Yankees. It won’t count against the luxury tax … And finally, Nicaragua won their World Baseball Classic qualifying event earlier this week and will play in the main tournament next spring. Jonathan Loaisiga is the best Nicaraguan-born player in baseball right now (his primary competition is, uh, Erasmo Ramirez) and I imagine they’ll try to recruit him over the winter. We have all winter to look at Yankees who could play in the WBC, but Nicaragua making the event is notable, and Loaisiga could feel the pull to go represent his country. Honestly, I think it would be cool. Nicaragua had only five affiliated minor leaguers on their qualifying roster. The rest of their players play in independent leagues, Mexico, and the Nicaraguan League.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Simon asks: How many more HRs would Judge have hit this year if we were still using the 2019 Juiced Balls?

MLB averaged 1.07 home runs per game this year, down from 1.39 in 2019. That’s a decline of 30%. Apply the 30% to Aaron Judge’s 62 homers and you get, uh, 81 homers. I mean, the ball flew in 2019, and Judge is a baseball mashing alien sent to us from the planet Dingertron. Maybe this version of Judge really would have hit 81 homers with the 2019 rocket ball.

Let’s look at it another way. The average fly ball traveled 314 feet this season. It was 324 feet in 2019. The average homer has held steady at 402 feet the last three years. Apply the 3% increase in average fly ball distance from 2019 to 2022 to Judge’s 2022 fly balls and 12 go from under the average home run distance to over. This is overly simplistic (the ballpark and batted ball direction matters), but another dozen homers seems like a decent ballpark number, no?

Dan asks: Short question for the next mailbag. Is Oswaldo Cabrera going to be eligible for Rookie of the Year next season?

He will not. The MLB rookie limits are 130 at-bats, 50 innings, and 45 days of service time (minus days spent on the injured list). Exceed any one of those and you’re no longer rookie eligible, and Cabrera finished the regular season with 154 at-bats. Oswald Peraza (49 at-bats and 35 days of service time) will be rookie eligible next season. Cabrera will not.

Jason asks: What is Oswaldo ceiling and or potential? We've heard a lot about Volpe and Peraza, but not as much about Cabrera. The Yankees seem to like Oswaldo and he's making a case to be a starter. Is this SSS noise and he's more of a bench player or does he start opening day 2023 (maybe in different positions every day)?

Oswaldo Cabrera is a great example of a player changing their ceiling. Two years ago he was a singles hitter who took good at-bats. Then he added strength, figured out how to get the ball in the air consistently, and blew up. Suddenly his ceiling went from second division regular or bench guy to an everyday player on a good team. Player development has never been better.

(Aaron Judge is another good example. Everyone knew he had massive power as a prospect. He’s made huge strides with his contact rate and overall approach, and now he’s this.)

I think Cabrera is, at worst, a super utility guy who gets 400+ plate appearances for a contending team. A tenth man, so to speak. In the lineup 4-5 times a week at different positions. He definitely has the tools to be an everyday guy because he has a plan at the plate, might hit 25+ homers at his peak, and is sound defensively all over the field. That guy can start, though the versatility is so valuable Cabrera might get shoehorned into a super utility role.

The Yankees will have a lot of moving parts this offseason (Judge and Andrew Benintendi are free agents, Aaron Hicks could be a goner, maybe Josh Donaldson too, etc.) and Cabrera could be an answer at any number of positions. He’s going to help the Yankees somehow. He does enough to stake a claim to a roster spot for a good long while.

Paul asks: Watching Judge the past few games got me thinking: how valuable would someone who never gets a hit and always gets a walk be? You can only DH them, what would their WAR be over 600 PA?

The simple WAR calculator at Away Back Gone is a bit outdated but it works well for mailbag purposes. A DH (DW for designated walker?) with a .000/1.000/.000 batting line and average base running would have a 222 OPS+ and be a +9.0 WAR player. Bat him leadoff (where else would you bat the guy with a 1.000 OBP?) and you can get him to 700 plate appearances (Marcus Semien led baseball with 724 plate appearances this year), and he becomes a +10.8 WAR player. Aaron Judge finished with a 211 OPS+ and +10.4 WAR, for reference.

Also, I must add that a DW with a .000/1.000/.000 line would be a deeply boring player. Valuable, but very boring to watch. Walks are generally dull (occasionally you get the hard-fought at-bat the results in ball four) and you’d know the outcome ahead of time. A DW would help his team win a lot of games and I’d also hate watching him.

Juan asks: Who monitors whether a roster move is allowed or not? For example: What happens if a team plays someone coming off the 60-day IL on day 59? Does the opponent have to catch it? Does the league review all roster moves?

Everything in baseball runs through the Electronic Baseball Information System, or eBIS. eBIS is essentially the league’s records office and activity hub. Official contracts, official rosters, waiver statuses, etc. It’s all on eBIS, and every transaction goes through eBIS. Want to release a rookie ball pitcher? Plug it into eBIS. Make a 12-player blockbuster four minutes before the trade deadline? eBIS. eBIS eBIS eBIS.

Try to activate a player off the injured list before he’s eligible and eBIS will flag it, and the league will say nope. Only a few front office people per team can access eBIS and MLB has an army of people (transactions experts, computer engineers, etc.) who stay on top of the thing. Rian Watt wrote a good piece giving us a peek behind the eBIS curtain a few years ago, so check that out.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)