October 4th, 2022: Britton, Holmes, Marinaccio, Judge, LeMahieu, Cortes, Severino, ALDS Roster

Ready for the last two days of meaningless baseball? The Yankees wrap up their regular season Wednesday, then will spend a few days working out and watching the Wild Card Series, then all hell breaks loose at Yankee Stadium next Tuesday. Nothing quite like postseason baseball. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Britton, Holmes, and Marinaccio injured. Poor Zack Britton. He pushed hard with his Tommy John surgery rehab in an effort to rejoin the Yankees in September and contribute in the postseason, then he walked six of the nine batters he faced, and got hurt again. The Yankees are calling it left shoulder fatigue. He was put on the 60-day injured list, so his season is officially over.

“I think basically it’s just something that we’re kind of running out of time here,” Aaron Boone told Kristie Ackert on Saturday. “And having a little bit of fatigue last night, it’s like one of those things you don’t want to power through and reach for more, and then do some damage as you’re coming back. But he’s in a good spot heading into the offseason.”

There’s a chance this injury ends Britton’s time with the Yankees – he pitched to a 2.75 ERA (4.01 FIP) with a 74.9% ground ball rate in 124.1 innings across parts of five seasons in pinstripes – though I wouldn’t rule out a return in 2023. The Yankees love Britton and Britton loves being a Yankee. A low cost one-year deal could be in the cards (Marly Rivera says the two sides have already had “preliminary conversations” about a reunion.)

“I mean, it doesn’t impact my future,” Britton told Ackert. “... (A World Series ring is) really the only goal for me at this stage of my career. I’ve gotten my contract. I am 34 years old. My reasons are much different now than when I was younger. I want (a) ring. That’s why I pushed this hard to come back and be an option for the team.”

Losing Britton is unfortunate, it would’ve been nice to see things click and have him contribute in some capacity, but that was always unlikely. The bigger loss is Clay Holmes. Little did we know he was unavailable the last two games in Toronto. He has a shoulder issue, went for an MRI, and received a cortisone shot. Holmes will play catch for the first time Tuesday.

"The first game in Toronto, I just felt a little more than normal soreness," Holmes told Bryan Hoch over the weekend. "I was able to pitch with it, but it's a spot where maybe I felt like I wouldn't be quite as effective the next inning. It's nothing too worrisome, but where we are in the season and with the workload that's coming, we want to play it smart before the postseason."

The Yankees won’t place Holmes on the injured list because that will make him ineligible for the ALDS, and they’re optimistic he can pitch in that series (the ALDS begins Oct. 11th). They’ll play short-handed these last few games and that’s fine. Not great, but the Yankees have clinched all they can clinch and the games are meaningless. If it costs them a game or two, who cares?

Holmes was kinda sorta getting back on track before the injury, walking just one and getting eight ground balls among 17 batters faced in his last four appearances. Holmes wasn’t dominant, but he did seem to be moving in the right direction. Now he has to hit pause, and when we see him next, it’ll be a high pressure postseason game. In my expert opinion, that is: not ideal.

And because losing Britton and Holmes isn’t enough, Ron Marinaccio exited Sunday’s game with the trainer. Fortunately it’s not his arm. He has a shin injury (I assume it's his left/landing leg) and he described it as lingering soreness more than a sharp, shooting pain. Marinaccio said it’s been bugging him for weeks, and that an MRI and a CT scan came back clean earlier this year.

"The shin thing's kind of just been a lingering issue I've been dealing with all year," Marinaccio told Rivera after Sunday’s game. "... I don't know if it was not bouncing back from last outing, I just didn't bounce back as well, but it was just a little hotter today. It's just that time of the year where some wear and tear, but you know, shouldn't be any issue."

(Like Holmes, Marinaccio is not going on the injured list because that would take him out of play for the ALDS. The Yankees are playing down two men this last series. That would really stink if these games meant anything.)

Britton was a longshot for the postseason roster. Holmes and Marinaccio were locks though, and now suddenly they’re question marks. And don’t forget about Wandy Peralta either. The Yankees are not going to activate him in Texas this week and he will instead throw on the side. That’s three – three! – high leverage relievers whose ALDS status is up in the air. I repeat, this is not ideal. (Miss you, Chad Green and Mike King.)

The best case scenario now is an ALDS Circle of Trust™ headlined by Scott Effross, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Lou Trivino, with Holmes, Marinaccio, and Peralta on the active roster but untested in game action since their injuries. Maybe I’m just being alarmist, but man, a pitcher needing a cortisone shot in his shoulder ain’t good. There’s something going on in there. I’m most worried about Holmes. It seems like Marinaccio and Peralta should be okay, thankfully.

The off-days between Games 1 and 2, and Games 2 and 3, will allow the Yankees to lean heavily on their trusted relievers early in the ALDS. It’ll be possible to ask Loaisiga and Trivino to get 4-6 outs each in Games 1, 2, and 3 without overworking them. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that, but if it does, it’s doable. Games 4 and 5 could get messy, and if they do, the Yankees will deal with it. They have more bullpen questions than I’d like in the final week of the regular season.

"We're trying to get them all healthy and ready," Boone told Hoch. "We still feel like we have really good options down there. There's no use crying about what you do or don't have. You've got to make the most of what you do. The reality is, we still have a lot of talented guys down there."

2. Weekday thoughts. Meaningless baseball means I can laugh about the Yankees hitting into six double plays in the first seven innings Monday. That ties the franchise record for double plays in a game done several times. The MLB record is seven double plays in a single game, also done several times. The Yankees came close to a seventh double play in the ninth inning, but Isiah Kiner-Falefa beat it out. Anyway, a few thoughts on the last few games.

The latest on the postseason picture

The postseason bracket is nearly complete. One more Braves win or one more Mets loss will complete Atlanta's comeback and give them their fifth straight NL East title. The Mets were 10.5 games up on June 1st. Only the 1951 Dodgers (13 games) and 1995 Angels (11 games) have blown larger division leads. Validation for everyone who said New York would blow a big lead this summer!

The Phillies, led by interim manager and longtime Yankees do-it-all guy Rob Thomson, clinched a Wild Card spot Monday night. The 12 postseason teams are set. All that remains is the Braves clinching the NL East and the Wild Card teams jockeying for seeding. The current postseason bracket:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bye: No. 1 Astros and No. 2 Yankees
WC: No. 6 Rays at No. 3 Guardians (winner plays Yankees)
WC: No. 5 Mariners at No. 4 Blue Jays (winner plays Astros)

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bye: No. 1 Dodgers at No. 2 Braves
WC: No. 6 Phillies at No. 3 Cardinals (winner plays Braves)
WC: No. 5 Padres at No. 4 Mets (winner plays Dodgers)

The Mariners (since 2001) and Phillies (since 2011) snapped their postseason droughts, the two longest in baseball. The longest droughts now belong to the Angels and Tigers (both since 2014). That right there is pretty good evidence a high payroll doesn’t automatically equal success on the field. The Angels, Phillies, and Tigers have spent a lot of money over the years.

Anyway, the Astros officially clinched the No. 1 seed, so the Yankees are locked in as the No. 2 seed. As long as they have a Wild Card Series bye, whatever. Also, the Blue Jays clinched the top Wild Card spot. That means the Yankees can not play them in the ALDS. It will be either the Guardians, or the Mariners or Rays. It is likely to be the Guardians or Rays (the Mariners figure to go to Toronto).

For home field advantage purposes, the Yankees have clinched a better record than every team except the Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets. They can still catch the Braves and Mets but not the Astros and Dodgers. So, that’s the postseason bracket update. It would take something a bit crazy for the bracket to be something other than what’s presented above.

Judge vs. History update

This past weekend’s Orioles series was the first time really all year I thought Aaron Judge was trying to hit a home run. He fouled away several middle-middle pitches and also got caught trying to check his swing on pitches out of the zone a few times. You don’t see Judge do that often. He recognizes pitches very well and usually spits on anything that isn’t a damage pitch.

At one point over the weekend Judge went 11 plate appearances without putting a ball in play. Starting in the sixth inning Friday he went walk, intentional walk, hit by pitch, walk, strikeout, walk, strikeout, strikeout, strikeout, walk, strikeout. Judge didn’t go deep in any of the final eight games at Yankee Stadium. That’s his longest home homerless streak since, uh, an eight-gamer in August. I thought it would be further back than that. Nevermind then.

“I had a couple opportunities – especially with the bases loaded – to drive some runs in and try to get a rally going. Just missed out, chasing a couple pitches,” Judge told Greg Joyce after Sunday’s game. “It would (have been) nice to hit it at home and do something special like that for the home fans. But at the end of the day, I got a job to do. I got at-bats getting ready for the postseason. So it didn’t happen, but the season’s not over yet.”

Last weekend the Red Sox challenged Judge. They went right after him and hey, it worked. They didn’t give up a milestone homer. Props to them for competing. The Orioles challenged Judge only a few times. There were times they obviously pitched around him, or pitched him so carefully that it looked like they were avoiding him. The pitches Judge saw this past weekend:

“We all had an idea going into the series what it was going to be like,’’ Spenser Watkins, who walked Judge on five pitches to open that four-run seventh inning Saturday, told Mark Cannizaro. “Our plan of attack was just to hit certain locations. There wasn’t any sense of trying to be reserved and not go after him. I was just trying to locate in certain spots.”

I’m not asking anyone to groove heaters. Just be competitive. Can you really put your head on the pillow at night and feel proud of pitching Judge that way in a meaningless game? I get not wanting to give up a milestone homer, but geez. Pitchers don’t have to pitch to Judge. They’re free to pitch around him. And we are free to call them cowards, and the fans are free to boo them into next week.

(Not for nothing, but it was going to take a shot to hit a home run in that wind Sunday. Look what the wind did on these plays. Judge would’ve had to really get into one to hit No. 62 out that day.)

Judge’s recent slide (he is 2-for-12 with five walks and seven strikeouts since hitting his 61st home run) has dragged his batting average down and put the Triple Crown in jeopardy. Here is the AL batting race with two days to go in the regular season:

1. Luis Arraez: .31550
2. Aaron Judge: .31082
3. Xander Bogaerts: .30490

The Twins have sat Arraez four times in their last eight games and they claim it’s because he’s nursing a hamstring issue. He can’t play every day, but when he does play he’s healthy enough to play the field (he hasn’t DHed). Also, Arraez has sat three times against lefties (hitting .268 against them) and only once against a righty (.328). Funny how that works.

Players have sat out games to clinch the batting title for decades (DJ LeMahieu sat out an entire weekend to win his 2016 batting title with the Rockies) and if the Twins want to sit Arraez, then so be it. Judge has two days and three games remaining to hit his 62nd homer and also catch Arraez for the batting title and thus the Triple Crown. Imagine reading that sentence in March.

LeMahieu’s return

Welcome back, DJ LeMahieu. He returned Friday and is 1 for 9 with a walk, and has played his three usual positions already. The exit velocities on his nine batted balls are okay (in order: 77.9 mph, 90.9 mph, 74.1 mph, 101.4 mph, 47.2 mph, 76.4 mph, 94.9 mph, 79.7 mph, 90.2 mph) but it’s also nine batted balls, so who knows. The real question is how does LeMahieu feel?

“Was able to put together some decent at-bats, but we’ll continue to see,” Boone told Joyce over the weekend. “Biggest thing is how he comes out of it and the treatments, if they allow him to continue to really fire.”

That’s really all the Yankees and LeMahieu can say and do right now. Just continue to play these last few games and see how the toe feels. I don’t have much more to say than that. It’s good LeMahieu’s playing and it’s good he can play the field without issue. That’s better than nothing. Fingers crossed LeMahieu feels good enough to hit and hit well in October.

“It’s definitely there," LeMahieu told Dan Martin about the toe injury after Monday's game. "It feels a little better than a couple weeks ago. I think it’s good enough.”

Nasty Nestor’s season

Nestor Cortes closed out his regular season with 12 strikeouts and one hit allowed in 7.1 shutout innings Saturday. It was the fourth time this season he threw at least six innings with no more than one hit allowed, tied for the most in baseball with Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and Cristian Javier. No Yankee had ever done it more than two times in a season (for real).

“He’s been huge,” Boone told Bryan Hoch after the game. “Understandably, the fan base loves him. He loves wearing the pinstripes and playing here, pitching here and performing here. It was a pretty neat ovation that he received when he came off to finish off what’s been a great regular season for him.”

There are two days to go in the regular season and I suppose the leaderboards can still change, but they are close to final at this point. Here’s where Nestor – sorry, that’s All-Star Nestor Cortes – ranks among the 60 pitchers with at 150 innings pitched:

• ERA: 2.44 (7th)
• ERA+: 158 (10th)
• FIP: 3.13 (13th)
• WHIP: 0.92 (3rd)
• K%: 26.5% (15th)
• K-BB%: 20.3% (13th)
• Win probability added: +3.46 (7th)
• Championship probability added: +1.62 (8th)
• fWAR: +3.6 (21st)
• bWAR: +4.2 (16th)

I bought into the new and improved Cortes last year because the new cutter, the sweepier slider, and the added velocity were tangible reasons to explain the career turnaround. This is not the same Nestor Cortes who had a 6.72 ERA (6.69 FIP) with three teams from 2018-20. Never did I think Nestor would be a top 15-20-ish starter though. This is best case scenario stuff.

So, shouldn’t Cortes start Game 1 of the ALDS? He outpitched Gerrit Cole during the regular season and especially over the last two months or so. I think you could argue Cole has a better chance to dominate, and he might be better able to come back on short rest* later in the series should the Yankees go that route, but overall, yeah, Cortes was the better pitcher in 2022.

* This might be the best argument for starting Cortes in Game 1. The ALDS schedule would allow the Yankees to go Cortes in Game 1, Cole in Game 2, Luis Severino in Game 3, Cortes on normal rest in Game 4, and Cole on short rest in Game 5. That way Nestor and Cole start four times in a best-of-five, and the Yankees avoid their No. 4 starter.

The postseason is not the time to worry about hurting someone’s feelings or who you’re paying to be your ace. You have to put your best foot forward each and every game, and while Cole has a major track record advantage over Cortes, Nestor has been better this season. There could be matchup reasons to go righty over lefty and vice versa. In a vacuum, Cortes should be the guy.

“We’ll see when that comes,” Boone told Hoch when asked about possibly starting Cortes in Game 1 of the ALDS. “We’re still trying to get through the regular season and have to prepare for what opponent. Hopefully we’re going into different rounds. It doesn’t always line up, so we’ll have those conversations.”

Bottom line, the Yankees need both Cole and Cortes to win the ALDS and eventually the World Series, and the order they pitch matters only so much. That the Game 1 starter is up for debate is both good (Nestor was amazing) and bad (Cole was very good overall but underwhelmed). Props to Cortes though. What a fun and remarkable season from start to finish.

“I just wanted to give a strong showing to finish the regular season on a high note. There’s still more work to be done, but I’m happy it ended this way,” Cortes told Hoch on Saturday. “... I’ve got a chip on my shoulder every time I go out there, a sense of urgency. The season I had doesn’t matter. Every time I go out there and pitch, I always feel like it could be the last one. That’s how I go about it.”

Severino’s comeback season

I understand why Severino came out of Monday’s game after seven no-hit innings but booooo. Severino put an exclamation point on his regular season with seven strikeouts and one walk in seven no-hit innings against an admittedly weak Rangers lineup. Weak, yes, but it is a Major League lineup. It’s not like the Rangers are getting no-hit once a week or something.

“It’s a decision that sucks to have to make,” Boone told Hoch about pulling Severino after those seven no-hit innings. Severino has a little Pedro Martinez in him in that he doesn’t just want to beat the other team, he wants to dominate them, and he wants to do it for nine innings 35 times a year. I love him being upset about getting pulled. "One thousand percent," he told Hoch when asked whether he would have completed the no-hitter.

The lat injury and two-month absence stunk, but what a comeback year for Severino. He finishes his regular season with a 3.18 ERA (3.70 FIP) in 102 innings across 19 starts. The 7.4% walk rate and 27.7% strikeout rate are pretty darn good too. For all intents and purposes, this was 2017-18 Severino, albeit for 19 starts instead of 32. What a joy he and Cortes have been.

Unless he gets hurt between now and the offseason, Severino’s $15M club option looks like a no-brainer. There’s a $2.75M buyout, so it’s a $12.25M decision, and if Severino hit free agency, every team and every fan would want him on a one-year, $12.25M contract. Even if he’s only a 120-150 inning guy next year, that’s well worth it. But first, the postseason, and it sure looks like Severino is heading into October at the top of his game.

Barnes to Chi Chi to Castro

Did Zack Britton’s injury save Aroldis Chapman’s roster spot? Probably not, but supposedly the Yankees were “at least contemplating” designating Chapman for assignment, then they made a few 40-man roster moves to bring up spare arms over the weekend. Maybe the original plan had Chapman getting the axe, then it changed when Britton got hurt? I doubt it, but you never know. The moves:

• Saturday: Britton to 60-day injured list, Jacob Barnes activated (throws 1.2 innings)
• Sunday: Barnes designated, Chi Chi Gonzalez activated (throws 4.2 innings)
• Monday: Gonzalez designated, Miguel Castro activated

Replacing Britton with Barnes rather than Castro (Boone said Castro was “available” prior to Friday’s game) or even Greg Weissert was a sign the Yankees were going to cycle through a few extra pitchers to rest their regulars. The Yankees could run Barnes and Gonzalez into the ground and drop them from the roster. They couldn’t do that with Castro or Weissert.

Gonzalez made the spot start Saturday to give the other starters extra rest more than line them up for the ALDS. The five-day break between Game 162 and the ALDS will make it easy to get the rotation lined up. Also, I don’t think the Yankees would have called up, say, Ken Waldichuk or Hayden Wesneski to make that start had they not been traded. An actual prospect would have had to stay on the 40-man roster. Gonzalez could be dropped immediately to retain roster flexibility heading into the postseason, which is exactly what happened.

(Why Gonzalez and not Ryan Weber, this year’s designated up-and-down journeyman? Turns out Weber never re-signed with the Yankees following the latest recall/release move last month, his fourth of the season. Maybe Weber packed it up and went home for the offseason? And why not Deivi Garcia? Because he hasn’t thrown more than 55 pitches in a game since Aug. 24th. He wasn't giving length.)

As for Castro, he returned Monday night – I’m guessing he was pitching Monday no matter the score and will do the same again Wednesday – and looked like Castro. Threw hard, didn’t really know where the ball was going, put some guys on base, etc. With the bullpen injuries, the Yankees might as well see what Castro has. Maybe you luck into the best 12-15 innings of his career at just the right time.

Miscellany

Anthony Rizzo’s back must feel good. He’s run the bases very aggressively since coming off the injured list, with several hard slides. He’s attempted a few stolen bases, gone first-to-third, etc. I don’t think Rizzo would do that if the back was still a concern, so he’s good to go … Kyle Higashioka is 11-for-26 (.423) with two doubles and a homer in his last eight games. The Yankees are definitely going to start him in the postseason again, aren’t they? Higashioka has started their last four and six of their last eight postseason games dating back to the 2020 Wild Card Series … And finally, Oswald Peraza taught me a new rule Monday. I did not know the runner has to retouch the base when he goes back even if he didn’t touch it when he rounded the base initially. I thought you only had to retouch the base on the way back if you touched it on your way by, but apparently just rounding the bag requires a retouch. Who knew? Peraza got doubled up at second base on that (video). Been an eventful few days for Peraza on the bases. He was called out at third base because he left early on a sacrifice fly Saturday (replays showed he did not in fact leave early) and then that happened Monday. Poor kid is just trying to find his way in the big leagues. He probably feels like he can’t do anything right on the bases.

2. Building the ALDS roster. There were times earlier this year when the Yankees had more good players than roster spots. Remember when Ron Marinaccio and Clarke Schmidt were stuck in Triple-A? That was fun. Injuries, particularly in the bullpen, have thinned the roster a bit, and the Yankees don’t have as many options as they did a few weeks ago.

That doesn’t mean the Yankees lack quality options, however. They just have fewer than they once did, so some postseason roster decisions will be made for them. The ALDS begins next Tuesday and the Yankees don’t have to submit their roster until that morning, so they’re in no rush to figure it out. They have the luxury of really thinking things through these next few days.

“It’ll be ongoing to that point and up to what opponent we’re facing,” Aaron Boone told Laura Albanese last week about setting the ALDS roster. “These games are important in that regard to see what we have with certain guys, and then those five days leading into the Division Series all the way up to who ends up being the opponent.”

With the caveats that the Yankees won’t play their first postseason game until next week and we don’t know who they’ll play, let’s sort through the potential ALDS roster. We can always come back and revisit this if things clear up (hopefully because players are getting healthy and not getting hurt). Let’s dive in.

Locks

Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way. These 16 players – fewer than I thought! – are slam dunk, no doubt about it locks for the postseason roster. In every round too.

• Catchers (2): Kyle Higashioka, Jose Trevino
• Infielders (4): Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres
• Outfielders (4): Harrison Bader, Oswaldo Cabrera, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
• Starters (3): RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Luis Severino
• Relievers (3): RHP Scott Effross, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Lou Trivino

Boone called Cabrera a “fixture in the lineup” over the weekend, and even if all the injured guys get healthy and come back soon, Cabrera would still make the postseason roster as a bench player. The others require no explanation. Onward.

Locks if healthy

I have seven players in this category, but, for ALDS purposes, it’s only five players. Here are the injured Yankees and their ALDS outlooks (in alphabetical order).

OF Andrew Benintendi (wrist): He had the stitches removed last week and started very light baseball activities over the weekend. Light as in dry swings. That’s all. Benintendi isn’t an ALDS option. We can check back in on his ALCS availability later if the Yankees get there.

1B/OF Matt Carpenter (foot): The Yankees opted against bringing Carpenter to Texas and will instead have him take live at-bats at their workout camp in Somerset (more on that in a bit). He took batting practice at Yankee Stadium over the weekend and definitely wasn’t swinging 100%, but he was swinging. Carpenter will have eight days of workouts and live at-bats to get ready for the ALDS, and the Yankees will have eight days to evaluate him.

“The biggest thing is we just want him to start getting at-bats,” Boone told Greg Joyce over the weekend, adding Carpenter will not work out in the outfield (at least not yet). “Between now and the start of the Division Series when we get back, he should be able to rack up a number of live at-bats.”

(The Yankees transferred Carpenter to the 60-day injured list over the weekend but that’s just a paper move. His 60 days are up this weekend and he can be activated for the ALDS. The Yankees also have an open 40-man roster spot, so that’s a non-issue.)

RHP Clay Holmes (shoulder): Unlike some other players in this category, Holmes is not on the injured list because putting him on the injured list now would take him out of the ALDS. Keeping Holmes active does not mean he will be on the ALDS roster. The Yankees are just keeping the option open. Everyone involved says they expect Holmes to be ready to go when the postseason begins and hopefully that’s the case.

IF DJ LeMahieu (toe): As I said earlier, the focus isn’t really on what LeMahieu does at the plate these last few games. 1-for-9, 9-for-9, who cares? More importantly, what’s the contact look like, and how is the toe holding up? Can LeMahieu get his A swing off? Or even his B swing? Because LeMahieu’s B swing might be preferable to some other guys’ A swing.

The toe bothers LeMahieu most at the plate and the Yankees will see where he’s at in a few days. I really don’t know what to think here. LeMahieu’s at-bats have been fine, but they were fine before he went on the injured list. He just didn’t drive the baseball, and his contact quality was better Monday. Small sample? Or a sign the toe is okay? How could we know?

RHP Ron Marinaccio (shin): Not great that two relievers walked off the mound with the trainer over the weekend! First it was Zack Britton on Friday, and his season is over. The 60-day injured list assignment confirms it. On Sunday, Marinaccio exited with a shin injury, which is preferable to an arm injury, but at this point does it matter? He’s either available for the ALDS or he’s not. The Yankees are still gathering information on Marinaccio’s injury.

RHP Frankie Montas (shoulder): Montas started his throwing program over the weekend and Boone all but ruled him out as an ALDS possibility. “I don’t know if (the ALDS is) going to be in play, but we feel like there’s time to where he can get to a point where he could be an option for us. Maybe Division Series, but more likely beyond,” Boone told Randy Miller over the weekend. So yeah, no Montas and no Benintendi in the ALDS.

LHP Wandy Peralta (back): Like Carpenter, the Yankees opted against bringing Peralta to Texas and instead sent him to Somerset. He threw two bullpen sessions over the weekend and all indications are he’s doing well. Peralta will presumably face hitters at Somerset and get himself back to where he needs to be.

“He’s doing well,” Boone told Joyce about Peralta. “It was more like, do we want to get him in one game (against the Rangers) or just have him live (in Somerset). You gotta kinda create a roster spot, which gets a little dicey. So in the end, we decided on he’s good to go live. He’ll get another one or two in prior to the Division Series.”

We can forget about Benintendi and Montas in the ALDS and I’m comfortable saying Carpenter, Holmes, LeMahieu, Marinaccio, and Peralta will all be on the ALDS roster if they check out physically. That is a huge IF. Holmes, Marinaccio, and Peralta have obvious places in the bullpen and, at worst, Carpenter and LeMahieu can be pinch-hit options for the bottom of the lineup.

The No. 4 starter

It won’t be Montas, leaving the Yankees with three No. 4 starter options: Domingo German, Jameson Taillon, and a bullpen game. I don’t think it will be a bullpen game. It might be German or Taillon with such a short leash that it’s effectively a bullpen game, but I don’t think it will be an intentional bullpen game (even though the ALDS schedule makes it very doable).

German or Taillon, Taillon or German? My hunch is it will be Taillon because the Yankees really believe in him (German’s continued presence on the roster has more to do with him being cheap and effective), and also because he has zero bullpen experience. German has pitched in relief plenty. The matchup will be a factor, though I think more signs point to Taillon than German.

“I haven’t had that kind of conversation with them, but at the same time, I’m gonna be here for the team and ready for whatever it may be,” German told Ryan Chichester over the weekend when asked about pitching in relief in the postseason. “... I’ve said it before, if I’m healthy, I have a really good chance of helping the team. Whatever the opportunity is, I’m going to be there to help the team as much as I can.”

For our purposes, I don’t think the identity of the No. 4 starter matters. I expect both German and Taillon to be on the ALDS roster. I’ll say Taillon in the rotation and German in the bullpen, but both will be on the roster in some capacity.

How many lefty relievers?

This will depend on the matchup and the matchup won’t be settled for a few days. The Mariners have lefty bats but little lefty power. The Rays do their platoon thing and can be a matchup nightmare, but they will occasionally back themselves into a corner and give you a favorable matchup. Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, and Jose Ramirez’s sizable (but anomalous) platoon splits this year make lefties necessary against the Guardians.

Assuming he’s healthy, Peralta will be on the ALDS roster, so that’s one lefty guaranteed. Britton is no longer an option, leaving two possibilities: Aroldis Chapman and Lucas Luetge. Chapman’s meltdown Sunday (five batters, three walks) might be a blessing in disguise. He was pitching juuust well enough the last week or two to trick the Yankees into believing in him. Then reality arrived.

“Um, yeah. We just talked about that. So yeah, sure, it’s a concern” Boone told Ethan Sears when asked whether he’s concerned about Chapman after Sunday’s game. “He just didn’t rein it in quite enough. Didn’t get completely wild and everything, so he was competitive with each hitter, and then the inning got kinda long on him. Kinda had to get him outta there.”

It’s only 43 batters faced but Chapman’s 23.3% strikeout rate against lefties this year doesn’t even leave open the “find the perfect lane for him and he can be useful” possibility. The Yankees have stuck with Chapman through all these ruts over the years, but this one is especially long and especially bad. Methinks he won’t be on the ALDS roster unless injuries force their hand.

Luetge dominated lefties last season but has been platoon neutral this season (lefties have a .308 wOBA and righties a .315 wOBA against him), and his elite spin rates make him a great matchup option against specific hitters. Some hitters struggle with velocity, others struggle with spin. Against certain lefties, Luetge could be a major weapon in the postseason.

The x-factor here is Marinaccio. He's taken over Tommy Kahnle’s old role as the right-handed lefty specialist because his changeup is so good. Marinaccio’s splits:

• vs. RHB: .152/.333/.242 (.281 wOBA), 30.7 K%, 15.9 BB%, 39.6 GB%
• vs. LHB: .146/.247/.232 (.224 wOBA), 31.2 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.9 GB%

Marinaccio has been in the big leagues for like 15 minutes, so he has a very short track record of neutralizing lefties, but the splits match the skill set. That trapdoor changeup is a handful. If – and again, these are big IFs – Peralta and Marinaccio are healthy enough to be on the ALDS roster, then the Yankees may not need a third lefty, and Chapman and Luetge spend October watching from the dugout.

Filling out the bullpen

How many pitchers will the Yankees carry on the ALDS roster? They carried 12 pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster last year, but that was a single game and they would have been able to reset their roster before the ALDS. In 2020, they carried 13 pitchers in the Wild Card Series and 14 in the ALDS, but remember, there were no off-days (and it was a bizarre year). Every team carried extra arms.

The Yankees carried 13 pitchers in the 2019 ALCS, their last “normal” postseason series, and I think that’s what they’ll take in the ALDS this year. Starting pitchers are kept on increasingly short leashes and you might have to play Games 3-5 on three consecutive days. 12 pitchers and a five-man bench would surprise me. (The postseason roster is 26 players with a 13-pitcher limit.)

Alright, so how do the Yankees fill out the bullpen then? I count eight pitchers who are locks for the ALDS roster: Cole, Cortes, Effross, German, Loaisiga, Severino, Taillon, and Trivino. That leaves five bullpen spots. I’d rank the available bullpen options like so:

1. Clay Holmes (if healthy)
2. Wandy Peralta (if healthy)
3. Ron Marinaccio (if healthy)
4. Clarke Schmidt
5. Lucas Luetge
6. Miguel Castro
7. Greg Weissert
8. Aroldis Chapman
9. Albert Abreu (if healthy)

That’s five healthy pitchers for five open bullpen spots, and one’s Chapman (and another’s Castro). Not great! The Yankees could be in a real bind if Holmes and/or Marinaccio and/or Peralta aren’t healthy for the ALDS. Maybe it would make sense to go with 12 pitchers rather than force a 13th in that case? Needless to say, the health of these relievers is a thing to monitor the next few days.

Rounding out the bench

A 13-man pitching staff leaves four bench spots, and one goes to the backup catcher. In a perfect world Carpenter and LeMahieu would occupy two bench spots, and we’ll just have to wait and see how they progress in the coming days. Other bench candidates (listed alphabetically):

OF Estevan Florial: Could be a defensive replacement (for Cabrera) and a pinch-runner.

UTIL Marwin Gonzalez: Provides coverage everywhere. A nice guy to have to get through the long 162-game regular season, but not a priority role in October because your starters are going to play as much as possible (plus Cabrera can always bounce around).

OF Aaron Hicks: Hicks is 11-for-29 (.379) with two homers in his last 10 games and no, I do not think that’s enough to convince the Yankees he’s worth a postseason spot. His role would be the same as Florial’s. He’d replace Cabrera defensively and pinch-run.

OF Tim Locastro: Same deal as Florial, except a worse defender and a better pinch-runner.

IF Oswald Peraza: If LeMahieu isn’t healthy enough to be on the roster, then Peraza has a pretty good chance to sneak in as the backup infielder. That would allow the Yankees to avoid shuffling Cabrera around, and also give them another pinch-runner candidate (not that Peraza has distinguished himself on the bases lately).

“We’ll see," Boone told Dan Martin when asked about a possible postseason role for Peraza on Monday. "It depends on who’s healthy going into the postseason, which you have decisions to make on DJ, Carpenter, Benintendi, even. Those kinds of things can all factor into that.”

C Ben Rortvedt: There are teams with specific roster situations in which carrying a third catcher on the postseason roster makes sense. If the Yankees go with 12 (or, gasp, 11) pitchers, then yeah, maybe a third catcher works. Then they could pinch-hit for the starting catcher and backup in close games. But yeah, it’s not happening. Tough luck, Ben.

When in doubt, follow the money: Hicks has the contract and the Yankees will need to carry an actual outfielder on the bench one way or another. And really, let’s not pretend Hicks over Florial and Locastro would be some great injustice. They all stink, but Hicks is the most well-rounded and gives you the best chance at some offense. 

HOWEVA, do the Yankees need that some offense? Consider will would be replaced by a pinch-runner in the postseason: Donaldson, Rizzo, Stanton, the catchers, maybe Torres, and that's it, right? Not any of the outfielders. Pinch-run for Donaldson or Rizzo (or Torres), and LeMahieu can step into the lineup spot. Pinch-run for Stanton, and LeMahieu or Carpenter can take over. The Yankees don't need the pinch-runner to hit, necessarily, so the question is how much do they want that dedicated pinch-runner, and how willing are they to go with a pure burner in Locastro (I can't see it being Florial) who doesn't do much else?

Carpenter’s and LeMahieu’s health will shape the bench. If they’re healthy enough to play, they’ll be on the ALDS roster, leaving one open bench spot (that pretty much has to go to an outfielder). If one or both are unable to play, then that opens the door for Peraza or Locastro, or maybe even Gonzalez. Versatility has a way of keeping players on the roster, you know?

Taxi squad

The minor league season ended last week and the Yankees have what amounts to a “stay ready” camp up and running in Somerset (the field is being renovated in Scranton, so that wasn’t an option). I don’t know who’s at the Somerset camp but Boone said they have “eight or so” pitchers there (that was before Britton and Marinaccio got hurt), plus a contingent of position players.

I think we can safely assume the players who have been going up and down all year are at the Somerset camp, plus a few other Triple-A guys with MLB time. Some candidates:

• 40-man roster: OF Estevan Florial, RHP Deivi Garcia, C Ben Rortvedt, OF Tim Locastro, RHP Greg Weissert
• Non-40-man roster: RHP Jimmy Cordero, C Rob Brantly, RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez, 1B Ronald Guzman, LHP Chasen Shreve, UTIL Tyler Wade
• Injured list: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Stephen Ridings (both were pitching in rehab games when the minor league season ended)

The stay ready camp and the taxi squad are two different things. The stay ready camp is where the team stashes a few players in case they’re needed at some point. The taxi squad is the players who will travel with the team in the postseason, sit in the dugout and all that, and be the first guys activated between rounds or in case of injury. The taxi squad is the immediate help.

All the guys we discussed as bubble roster candidates figure to be on the taxi squad. If Hicks isn't on the ALDS roster, he’ll be in the dugout* as part of the taxi squad. Same with Chapman, Gonzalez, Luetge, etc. All those guys plus a third catcher (Rortvedt) will be on the taxi squad in case they’re needed. Whoever doesn’t make the roster will still be with the Yankees.

* Teams must get approval from MLB and the opposing team to have non-active roster players in the dugout in the postseason, but this is never an issue.

Projected roster (maybe?)

So much is still up in the air because of the injuries and unknown opponent. Right now, I think the best case scenario ALDS roster looks like this:

The regular season taxi squad is five players max (one must be a catcher), and if that is true in the postseason, then I guess either Gonzalez or Peraza goes to Somerset (probably Peraza since Marwin's a veteran). Given the available personnel, that looks like the best case ALDS roster. Come the ALCS, maybe the Yankees will be able to swap in Benintendi and Montas. They have to get there first.

Going with 12 pitchers – do you really need a 13th pitcher when German and Schmidt can give you length out of the bullpen? – would open a bench spot for Locastro. I hope the Yankees do that. I think you’re more likely to need that pinch-runner late in a close game than you are the very last guy on the pitching staff while playing (at most) five games in seven days.

If Carpenter and LeMahieu aren’t healthy enough for the ALDS roster, then you’re looking at two of Gonzalez, Peraza, and Locastro on the bench. If Holmes or Marinaccio can’t go, then Chapman on the ALDS roster becomes a real possibility. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, and let’s hope all these guys who might be healthy in time for the ALDS are indeed healthy and able to contribute. Being on the roster is one thing. Being effective is another.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. A few coaching staff notes to pass along. First, we finally have details on Aaron Boone’s new three-year contract: Jon Heyman says it pays him $2.75M per season. Boone’s last three-year deal was worth $4M total (then there was a fourth year club option that got picked up). Terry Francona is believed to be the highest paid manager at $6M or so annually, and Boone’s $2.75M is in the 8-12 range among the 30 managers. When the Yankees let Joe Girardi go, he was making $4M a year. If Boone gets another contract after this one, it will mean the Yankees like the job he’s doing (and have won a World Series?), in which case he’ll get another raise and presumably become one of the game’s highest paid managers. And second, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) mentioned Yankees third base coach Luis Rojas as a candidate to replace Don Mattingly in Miami. I heard that back in Spring Training but didn’t think much of it because there was an entire season to play. The Marlins reportedly want someone young and bilingual, and I know Rojas is well thought of in the game as a teacher. He didn’t exactly distinguish himself as a manager with the Mets, but that was a difficult situation (COVID, the Wilpons, etc.), plus people learn. AJ Hinch seemed in over his head with the Diamondbacks in his first managerial stint. So there you go, Boone makes $2.75M a year and Rojas is potentially in the mix to join the Marlins … And finally, I have a conspiracy theory: MLB ordered official scorers to score more would-be errors as base hits to keep the league batting average from cratering. I can’t explain the terrible official scoring otherwise. The league is hitting .243 this year, its lowest since hitting .237 in 1968, the year before MLB lowered the mound. We’ve seen Isiah Kiner-Falefa boot how many balls and have it go for a hit? These plays were scored hits Friday. I mean, what is that? Teams are averaging 0.52 errors per game in 2022. It was 0.54 in 2021 and 0.60 in 2019, the last full pre-pandemic season. A 15% decline in errors in three years? Hmmm. HMMM.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)