September 29th, 2022: AL East, Judge, Cole, Stanton, LeMahieu, Carpenter, Montas, Minor League Awards, Mailbag

Only a week remains in the 2022 regular season, the most eventful Yankees’ regular season in some time. It wasn’t all good, but that’s baseball. You have to take some bad with the good and there was a lot of good this year. Here is Friday morning’s post Thursday afternoon since it’s an off-day, the final off-day of the regular season.

1. Weekday thoughts. I’ve seen enough: Anthony Rizzo for player-manager the rest of the year. Rizzo for manager, Gleyber Torres for bench coach, Luis Severino for pitching coach, and I think I saw Nestor Cortes on the phone with the video replay room, so put him on the staff too. Small sample you say? Pffft. One game is all I need to evaluate a coaching staff’s competence. That was a fun game Wednesday. For more reasons than one. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

AL East champs

The Yankees are the 2022 AL East champs. They clinched the division title with Tuesday’s win and, more importantly, they also clinched a Wild Card Series bye. Truth be told, the Blue Jays conceded the division last week, when they rearranged their rotation to line Alek Manoah up for the Wild Card Series, taking him out of this week’s Yankees series. You don’t do that if you’re trying to win the division. Still, it’s nice to make the AL East title official.

“We can say we’re the best team in the best division this year, and it wasn’t easy,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after Tuesday’s game. “Everyone in that room knows that. We took everyone’s punches. We had some low moments. But tonight is to be celebrated. It’s not easy going through the American League East and to survive. This is step one, and we want to win a championship. That’s our goal.”

The Astros can clinch the No. 1 seed as early as Friday, so the Yankees are more or less locked in as the No. 2 seed. There’s still some outstanding ticky tack stuff (clinching a better record than the Cardinals in case they meet in the World Series, etc.), but for all intents and purposes, the Yankees have clinched all they can clinch. These last seven games are meaningless*. Zero stakes baseball.

* The Yankees can’t even lose games on purpose to improve their 2023 draft position (not that they would ever do that). The new draft order slots postseason teams by their finish (Wild Card Series losers before LDS losers, LDS losers before LCS losers, etc.), so nothing the Yankees do these next seven games will change their draft outlook, if you care about such things.

There will be a lot of talk about the five-day layoff between the regular season and the ALDS, and I can tell you a) the players want that five-day break, and b) you can find examples to support any theory. The long layoff will take players out of their rhythm? The 2006 Tigers had a seven-day layoff after the ALCS and fell flat in the World Series. The long layoff will help players? The 2019 Nationals had a seven-day break after the NLCS and jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the World Series on the road (and eventually won the whole thing).

All I can say is the good of skipping an entire postseason round, especially a best-of-three (the shorter the series, the more randomness comes into play), is worth the risk of a five-day layoff somehow hurting the Yankees in the ALDS. The Yankees are planning workouts and simulated games during the downtime to stay ready. That’s all you can do. The division is clinched and the bye is clinched. Worrying about a long layoff is a first world problem.

“With the new format, it’s definitely nice to get a bye, and we get to play in front of our fans, which is going to be great,” Jameson Taillon told Hoch after Tuesday’s win.

Judge vs. History update

It speaks to how great Aaron Judge has been this season that a seven-game home run drought felt like an eternity. Judge finally swatted his 61st home run Wednesday night, and true to this MVP season, it broke a tie in the late innings and gave the Yankees the lead. He’s delivered big hits all year. Your new American League single-season home run leaderboard:

1. Aaron Judge, 2022 Yankees: 61 and counting
2. Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees: 61
3. Babe Ruth,1927 Yankees: 60
4. Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees: 59
5. Jimmie Foxx, 1932 Tigers: 58
6. Hank Greenberg, 1938 Tigers: 58

“It’s an incredible honor to get a chance to be associated with one of the Yankee greats, one of the baseball greats,” Judge told Hoch after the game. “To be enshrined with them forever, words can’t describe it. That’s one thing that’s so special about the Yankee organization, all the guys that came before us and paved the way, played the game the right way.”

Judge hit 61 homers in only 155 team games – Maris hit No. 61 in Game 162 – and he managed to hit it before the regular season was originally scheduled to end this Sunday. The Yankees still have seven games remaining, giving him ample opportunity to pass Maris and add to his total. Judge has hit as many as seven homers in a seven-game span this year. He ain’t done.

“61 – I’ve known about that number for my entire life. It’s one thing that makes our sport a little more special than the others, the numbers,” Boone, who has a deep appreciation of the sport’s history, told Hoch.

(Shoutout to Jordan Romano. The ball landed in the Toronto bullpen and the Blue Jays closer personally delivered it to Zack Britton between the bullpens rather than hand it over to one of the many people claiming to be with the Yankees or MLB. “It’s a very important ball. There was a lot of people there. We just didn’t want to give it to the wrong people,” Romano said. Judge said he plans to seek Romano out and thank him.)

Judge walked 13 times in 34 plate appearances between No. 60 and 61, including five times Tuesday and Wednesday alone, and all five times after he fell behind the count. You couldn’t tell Judge was chasing 61 homers in September. He looked like he does when he’s sitting on 15 homers in May. Even with the Yankees playing relatively meaningless games, Judge stuck to his approach and didn’t sell out to get No. 61. He was the same Aaron Judge.

“My game plan is what got me to this point,” Judge told Hoch. “I never really thought it would be fair to my teammates or the Yankees to be up here trying to chase a record. My job is to go out there and be the best hitter I can be.”

We can’t get inside Judge’s head and I have no idea what he truly feels or thinks, but I hope he’s enjoying this. The season he’s having, the Maris chase, the Triple Crown run, all of that. It basically never happens and it’s okay to step back and say okay, this is really cool. Judge is very team-focused but I would bet the farm his teammates want him to enjoy this. With the division clinched, it’s okay to be a little selfish and revel in your accomplishments. Judge has earned it.

As for that Triple Crown chase, Judge is narrowly atop the batting average leaderboard. Xander Bogaerts has had a rough two weeks (9-for-46 since Sept. 13th) so now Luis Arraez is Judge’s biggest challenger. The batting race entering Thursday:

1. Aaron Judge: .31341
2. Luis Arraez: .31332
3. Xander Bogaerts: .30869
4. Nate Lowe: .30511
5. Jose Abreu: .30479

The difference between Judge and Arraez is one hit every 11,111 at-bats. I admit I am more invested in the Triple Crown chase than I thought I’d be. I understand Judge doesn’t need it to validate his season (I mean, come on), but I badly want him to get it. A Triple Crown with 61+ homers would be an all-time badass season. That this is even a possibility is bonkers.

On a more personal note, Judge kept RAB alive. I went into 2017 planning to shut the site down after the season. I was burnt out and mentally exhausted. Then this literal giant shows up in right field, breaks the rookie record with 52 homers, and drags the Yankees to within a game of the World Series. The flame was rekindled and I kept the site going another 20 months. Without Judge, RAB shuts down in 2017 and I might not have ever started the Patreon. A great, fun player who changed the last few years of my life.

On Maris Jr.

I don’t want to spend much time on this but nothing sums up MLB better than a player reaching a major milestone, and the conversation immediately shifting to dumb gatekeeping nonsense. For some reason Roger Maris Jr. was put in front of a microphone after Judge’s 61st homer, and he of course said he considers 61 the real record. Here’s what he said (video link):

"I think (Judge breaking the record) means a lot not just for me, but for a lot of people. He's clean, he's a Yankee, he plays the game the right way. I think he gives people a chance to look at somebody who should be revered for hitting 62 home runs and not just as a guy who did it in the American League. He should be revered for being the actual single-season home run champ. That's really who he is if he hits 62 and I think that's what needs to happen. I think baseball needs to look at the records and I think baseball should do something."

Everyone is entitled to their opinion but boy, how quickly we forget, eh? Maris’ record was considered illegitimate for a long time because he did it in 162 games rather than 154. It wasn’t until 1991 that MLB itself recognized 61 as the official record. The son of the guy whose record was shouted down is now shouting down records held by others. Baseball is a flat circle.

Also, how in the world can we confidently say any player is not using performance-enhancing drugs in the year 2022? It’s impossible to know. Maris Jr. wants 61 to be considered the record out of self-interest. It’s fine, he can believe what he wants. I’m just in awe at MLB’s ability to step on rake after rake, and find ways to diminish accomplishments. The dumbest league.

Cole matches Guidry

Gerrit Cole tied Ron Guidry’s franchise record with his 248th strikeout Wednesday night. He has one start remaining, and unless he has the second zero-strikeout start of his career (he threw seven no-strikeout innings in 2016), he will pass Guidry and take over sole possession of first place on the franchise’s single-season strikeout list.

“I think it’s more special because of what Aaron did tonight, to be honest,” Cole told Greg Joyce and Dan Martin. “It’s a really special number. Guidry was so good for us and so magical. His record held for so long. I don’t think you dream of it, but to be mentioned in the same category as the Yankees legends, it’s hard for me to wrap my head around it at this point.”

Cole had 326 strikeouts with the 2019 Astros and, once he passes Guidry, he will be one of five pitchers to hold the single-season strikeout record for two franchises, joining Randy Johnson (Diamondbacks and Mariners), Pedro Martinez (Expos and Red Sox), Nolan Ryan (Angels and Rangers), and Rube Waddell (Athletics and Orioles). Four Hall of Famers isn’t bad company.

That all said, the era matters, and strikeouts are far more prevalent now than they were during Guidry’s heyday. Here is the franchise’s K%+ leaderboard (min. 150 innings):

1. Red Ruffing, 1932: 210 K%+
2. Johnny Allen, 1935: 205 K%+
4. Ron Guidry, 1978: 198 K%+
…
49. Gerrit Cole, 2022: 145 K%+
50. Gerrit Cole, 2021: 145 K%+

It’s amusing that Ruffing’s 12.7% strikeout rate was 110% better than league average (6.7%) in 1932. I long for the days of a single-digit league strikeout rate. Would be fun. Anyway, I’m not trying to take anything away from Cole. I’m glad he tied Guidry and will break the record next time out. I’m just providing context and giving Guidry props. He was a strikeout machine at a time when contact reigned supreme.

Stanton’s slump

Giancarlo Stanton is a significant concern right now. He hit .337/.411/.652 (195 wRC+) in the 25 games prior to his calf injury in early May. Since returning in early June, he’s hit .158/.262/.393 (87 wRC+) in 268 plate appearances, including .146/.241/.281 (52 wRC+) with a Gallo-esque 37.0% strikeout rate in 108 plate appearances since returning from the Achilles injury.

Stanton looks as bad as the numbers too. The chases (ugly and well out of the zone) and takes (fastballs down the middle) tell you he’s caught in-between and overthinking at the plate rather than reacting, and that’s a bad place to be. Look at his wOBA and strikeout rate within the strike zone since coming off the injured list. These colors are backwards (full-size image):

“I think (the Achilles is) a factor but I also feel like it’s not something that should limit him from finding it and still being a wrecking ball once he gets going,” Boone told Brendan Kuty earlier this week. “... I think he was pretty disciplined and patient about (his rehab) and being clear about when he’s ready to come back. No, I think he realized he’s got to do it when it’s not perfect and he’s working hard to get to that point.”

The Achilles could explain the slump – it’s hard to be a productive hitter when you don’t have a solid base underneath you – but also the season ends in a week, and if the Achilles is limiting Stanton, can we really expect that to change before the postseason? I guess it’s possible. Either way, Giancarlo is running out of time to get on track at the plate.

The walk-off grand slam last week is a reminder this dude can still change a game in an instant, but this is not a run of the mill two-week slump. This has been going on a long time now and we haven’t seen any progress. If anything, it seems Stanton’s slump is getting worse seeing how he’s struck out 28 times in his last 54 plate appearances (51.9%). Yeesh.

Stanton’s been great in the postseason (.297/.373/.734 and 185 wRC+ in 18 career games) and I’d like to believe he can flip the switch in October, but it’s hard to be optimistic with the way he’s swung the bat lately. The Yankees need Stanton to mash to make a deep postseason run. He’s an important cog in the middle of the lineup and he’s in a bad place right now, and the end of the regular season is only a week away.

“Just continue to ride it out. Just trying to find that good stretch, that good timing to where we’ve seen it happen overnight where he locks it in and becomes as good and as dangerous as it gets,” Boone told Kuty. “Hopefully we get there. We’ve seen a little bit of flashes. He’s obviously gotten some big hits, a couple big homers for us. But for the most part it’s been a struggle to get all the way back to that point, and we’re going to keep working at it and hope it clicks here soon.”

Miscellany

Judge has started 49 consecutive games, which is Ripkenian for the Yankees with the way they rest players. I was surprised to see him in the lineup Wednesday because the Yankees had clinched the division, and it was a chance to rest him two days in a row with the off-day Thursday. There’s no chance he sits at Yankee Stadium this weekend. Fans would burn the place down if he’s not in the lineup. My guess is Judge sits one of the doubleheader games in Texas next week, but otherwise plays everyday the rest of the season … Oswald Peraza doesn’t play often (he has started only three of the last 16 games), but when he does, he hits. Two hits against the Red Sox on Sunday and two hits against the Blue Jays on Wednesday. Peraza is 10-for-32 (.313) with three walks and a hit-by-pitch (.405 OBP) in his limited action. I wish we could have seen more of him the last few weeks. The kid’s a player … Two appearances, eight batters faced, and five walks for Britton. Control issues are common in the early days back from Tommy John surgery, plus Britton wasn’t blessed with great control to begin with, so this isn’t the most surprising thing in the world. I bet Britton pitches every other day from here on out as the Yankees evaluate him for the postseason. I’m not sure that’s enough time to convince anyone he’s trustworthy in big October moments, but the Yankees might as well give him a look in meaningless games … And finally, everyone’s favorite super utility player is 15-for-57 (.316) with five doubles and four home runs in his last 16 games. I don’t see how the Yankees can keep Oswaldo Cabrera out of the lineup in the postseason. He looks so comfortable at the plate right now. Then again, keeping him in the lineup won’t be an issue with Andrew Benintendi not close to returning. Cabrera as the postseason left fielder, eh? Who saw that coming?

2. Injury updates. Andrew Benintendi is not all that close to returning (he will have the stitches removed soon and hasn’t done any baseball activities) but a few other important Yankees are on the mend and closer to a return. Here’s the latest.

LeMahieu returning Friday

DJ LeMahieu (toe) will be activated Friday. I assume Oswald Peraza is going down to clear a roster spot, though I suppose it could be Tim Locastro. LeMahieu has gone through full workouts the last few days (including on the turf in Toronto) and the toe doesn’t give him any problems in the field. It’s at the plate where it really hampers him, and he admits it’s still not 100%.

“The last couple days have been encouraging for him,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce earlier this week. “... We’re about at that point of, “We’ll see if there’s anything that does hold him back.’ But I think this is probably going to be a hitting thing. Can he handle it? Can he hit at a level he needs to – we need him to – to be able to do it? We’ll see. Everyone’s been encouraged, most importantly DJ, that that’s moving in a pretty good direction.”

This is very much a “let’s see what he can do” activation. The Yankees are not hoping LeMahieu comes back and goes 12-for-25 or whatever in the last seven games, though I’m sure they’ll take it. They want to see whether he is physically able to take competitive swings and drive the ball with the toe still bothering him. Here’s this graph yet again:

LeMahieu hit .153/.222/.204 (24 wRC+) with a 2.5% barrel rate in the 25 games prior to going on the injured list. You create power with your legs, and with his foot compromised, LeMahieu could not hit the ball with authority. It sounds like the toe is as healthy as it’s going to get, so it’s time to test it in games. What else are you supposed to do in meaningless games?

Now, let’s say the toe is good enough to allow LeMahieu to contribute. Where does he fit? Boone continues to say there are no plans to put Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield, but would they rethink that to get LeMahieu into the lineup? Would they sit the struggling Stanton and let LeMahieu be the DH? You can’t sit Gleyber Torres right now, but what about Josh Donaldson? I dunno.

We can worry about this after LeMahieu comes back and shows the toe is a non-issue, and he can contribute meaningfully in the postseason. With only six days and seven games to go in the regular season, it’s either now or never. The Yankees have to see what LeMahieu can do these next few days so they can make the best roster decision come postseason time.

Carpenter could return in Texas

Somewhat surprisingly, Boone acknowledged there’s a chance Matt Carpenter (foot) will rejoin the Yankees when they go to Texas for their final regular season series Monday. It is not set in stone, but it is a possibility. Carpenter started weight-bearing exercises earlier this week, though I feel like I should note he was still walking with a limp in the clubhouse last weekend.

“I think we’re holding out hope (for Texas), but we’re still a ways from even having an idea if that’s going to be possible or not,” Boone told Randy Miller earlier this week. “Obviously, a lot depends on how his week unfolds. He’s just starting to do a lot of weight-bearing things. We’ve tried to keep it in play with how we’ve maneuvered the roster, but we’ll just have to see how each day goes and where we are this time next week.”

Similar to LeMahieu, my sense is bringing Carpenter back in Texas would be more about testing the foot than letting him see live pitching. They can load him up with simulated at-bats during the downtime between the regular season and the ALDS. That’s the easy part. But is the foot healthy enough to handle competitive games? Can he play even five innings in the field? There is only so much time to find out.

Ready for a not fun stat? Since Carpenter’s injury Yankees’ lefties are hitting .218/.288/.374 (89 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 458 plate appearances. Anthony Rizzo spent some time on the injured list but he’s taken 112 of those 458 plate appearances, or 24%. He just wasn’t very good before getting hurt (he’s been typical Rizzo since returning, more or less).

It is now Sept. 2022 and the Yankees are still somehow deficient in lefty bats. They have 1,698 plate appearances from lefties this season, eighth fewest in baseball. Joey Gallo didn’t work out and Benintendi got hurt, that’s a bummer, but how is it Rizzo and Oswaldo Cabrera (and I guess Aaron Hicks given his recent play) are the Yankees’ only lefty bats of note? Lord.

That is one way of saying the Yankees need Carpenter’s bat, even if the foot only allows him to pinch-hit, reach base, and immediately be replaced by a pinch-runner. There are some guys at the bottom of the lineup you don’t want taking at-bats late in close postseason games. Carpenter can be the designated high-leverage pinch-hitter*. If that’s all he can do, I’ll take it.

* If you want to get really crazy you could “start” Carpenter (or LeMahieu) at shortstop and bat him leadoff in road postseason games, let him get an at-bat in the top of the first, then replace him with Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the bottom half (or as the pinch-runner if he reaches base).

So, fingers crossed Carpenter comes through a potential Texas audition well and is an option in the postseason, even as only a pinch-hitter. The Yankees need all the lefty pop they can get and having someone on the bench who can park one in the short porch would be a nice (if not a necessary) weapon in October.

Montas begins throwing program

Frankie Montas (shoulder) either has begun this throwing program or will soon begin his throwing program, and although there’s nothing set in stone as far as getting him into game action, Boone floated the possibility of using Montas as a 30-40 pitch guy in the postseason. There’s not enough time to get him stretched back out to a 100-pitch starter, so they’ll make the best of it.

"I do think there's a chance that he can have a role and have an impact for us. It's just a matter of how the next couple of weeks go,” Boone said last weekend. "It could be starting, giving us 30-40 pitches.”

Of course, Montas was very bad before getting hurt, and the postseason is not the time to let a struggling pitcher try to find himself. At the same time, Montas can be really good, and you want to make sure he’s available just in case. I don’t see any way he’s on the ALDS roster given the timetable. But the ALCS? Yeah, maybe. Look at the ridiculous ALCS schedule:

• Game 1: Wednesday, Oct. 19th
• Game 2: Thursday, Oct. 20th
• Game 3: Saturday, Oct. 22nd
• Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 23rd
• Game 5: Monday, Oct. 24th (if necessary)
• Game 6: Tuesday, Oct. 25th (if necessary)
• Game 7: Wednesday, Oct. 26th (if necessary)

There’s an off-day between Games 2 and 3, and that’s it. If necessary, games 3-7 will be played on five consecutive days. Travel between Games 5 and 6 could be a nightmare (imagine if the Yankees and Mariners meet in the ALCS), but this is the schedule MLB came up with, and it is the schedule the Yankees will face should they advance to the ALCS.

I would be surprised to see a team use its No. 5 starter in the ALCS. When there were no off-days during the pandemic postseason in 2020, teams used bullpen games and starters on short rest rather than their No. 5 starter, though maybe that was easier to do after a 60-game season than a long 162-game season. Still, I think a team using its actual No. 5 starter is a long shot.

In that case, yeah, Montas could be useful in the ALCS, even as a 30-40 pitch guy (perhaps by then he’s stretched out to 50-60 pitches?). It’s been a while but Montas has bullpen experience. You don’t have to try too hard to see how carrying him as a 2-3(-4) inning guy as the last pitcher on the staff makes sense. Jordan Montgomery was on the ALDS and ALCS rosters in 2017 but never got into a game. That could be the Montas role. The emergency multi-innings guy.

First things first, Montas has to get healthy and get to the point where he can pitch in games. We can figure out how he fits into the postseason picture once he reaches that point. Maybe he doesn’t fit at all. But you at least want Montas to be healthy and an available pitcher in October.

King avoids Tommy John surgery

Michael King (elbow) does not need Tommy John surgery, he told Gary Phillips. He went for his scans Thursday and multiple doctors agreed the ligament in intact. King has to go for another checkup in a few weeks for the bone, but the ligament is sound. The hope is King can start throwing in late October or early November, and be ready for Spring Training.

"No Tommy John. They said the ligament is intact. No partial tearing. It looks great. I was very relieved to hear that. Everything checked out,” King told Phillips. “... Obviously, starting a throwing program in October, November, means that I'll be totally fine by next year, which is great. That's really like my ultimate goal, is to not miss any time next year."

King’s season ended on July 22nd (was it really that recent? feels like he last pitched a lifetime ago) and he wasn’t with the Yankees in Toronto, though Marly Rivera says a bunch of relievers FaceTimed him to let him in on the AL East clincher celebration. So, great news. King is lost for the season, but having him on Opening Day 2023 will be an enormous boost to the bullpen.

3. Minor league awards. The 2022 minor league season is over. Triple-A Scranton was unable to complete their dramatic comeback (they were 19-36 on June 8th and then rallied to climb into first place earlier this month) though at least they went down fighting. They won 18 of their last 26 games, but Durham (Rays) kept winning their games and clinched the division. Bummer.

In better news, Double-A Somerset won the Eastern League championship Wednesday night, and it might have been the most dominant clinching performance in sports history? I’m not even joking. They led 9-0 after one inning, won the game 15-0, and threw a dang no-hitter. RHP Randy Vasquez threw the first eight innings (video) and RHP Carson Coleman closed it out in the ninth.

"It’s an incredible moment. I’m just so happy for the players and the staff,” Somerset manager Dan Fiorito told Rob Terranova after the game. “... In this moment, a win-or-go-home, do-or-die game, for Randy to come out here and throw eight no-hit innings was absolutely incredible. He was dominant and that’s as special of an outing as you’re going to see. Randy answering the call for us with our backs against the wall, he was the guy we wanted out there."

The Florida Complex League Yankees also won their league title earlier this month. Like Somerset, the FCL Yankees rallied to win the best-of-three series after dropping Game 1. There were no Game 3 dramatics though. All told, Yankees’ affiliates had the third best winning percentage (.548) and second best run differential (+490) in the minors this season.

Each year around this time I like to look at the farm system and hand out awards for the just completed season. This is not a top prospects list, it's an acknowledgement of the players who had the best seasons regardless of prospect status, though top prospects frequently take home awards. Without further delay, here are the 2022 RAB Minor League Awards.

Player of the Year: OF Jasson Dominguez

2022 stats: .273/.375/.461 (135 wRC+), 16 HR, 37 SB, 24.2 K%, 13.6 BB% (530 PA in A-/A+/AA)

These are season awards but I must note Dominguez absolutely showed out in the Eastern League Championship Series this week. He went 7-for-13 (.538) with a double and three home runs in the three-game series, including 5-for-9 (.555) with those three homers with Somerset facing elimination in Games 2 and 3. Dominguez went deep from each side of the plate (video) and drove in six runs in the clincher. Somerset qualified for the postseason because SS Anthony Volpe clinched the first half division title with a walk-off homer in June, then Dominguez delivered the championship in September. Nice work by the top two prospects in the system.

"What Jasson did was incredible," Fiorito told Terranova. "He's 19 years old and he's in Double-A right now, they say the best pitching in the league, and in the biggest game of the year and that's his performance. I mean, when your best players rise to the occasion, it's a manager's dream right there.”

During the regular season Dominguez performed like a man among boys while being a boy among men at the two Single-A levels. He got better as the season progressed (especially cutting down on strikeouts) and was a power/speed threat while being one of the youngest players in the league in both Low-A and High-A. Dominguez finished second in the system in wRC+, and he and Austin Wells were the only players to rank top seven in AVG, OBP, and SLG. Also, his 530 plate appearances were second in the system. That’s a huge workload for a 19-year-old, yet Dominguez got better later in the summer rather than wear down (plus he’s going to the Arizona Fall League next week). Just an all-around excellent season for a prospect the industry didn’t seem to want to be patient with last year.

Pitcher of the Year: RHP Jhony Brito

2022 stats: 2.96 ERA (3.91 FIP), 20.0 K%, 7.7 BB%, 52.0 GB% (112.2 IP at AA/AAA)

The Yankees traded away their best (LHP Ken Waldichuk), second best (RHP Hayden Wesneski), and arguably third best (RHP Beck Way) candidates for this award, and I strongly considered giving it to a reliever as a result. Ultimately, Brito had a fine season and is a worthy Pitcher of the Year. Over 110 innings, all at the upper levels, with a sub-3.00 ERA never looks out of place here. The underlying numbers aren’t great but Brito was the only pitcher in the system to throw as many as 80 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA. At the end of the day, preventing runs is the name of the game, and no pitcher spent the full season in the farm system and did it as well as Brito.

Hitter of the Year: C Austin Wells

2022 stats: .277/.385/.512 (145 wRC+), 20 HR, 16 SB, 22.4 K%, 13.9 BB% (402 PA in A-/A+/AA)

A foul tip related groin injury cost Wells close to six weeks, and if not for that, chances are he would have had an ultra-rare 20/20 season as a catcher* (one of my favorite weird stats is Wells is 48-for-48 stealing bases dating back to his freshman year at Arizona). Wells mashed all season around the injury and led the system in wRC+, ranked second in OBP and SLG, and third in AVG. He was also third in homers despite the missed time. I don’t double up with the Player of the Year and Hitter (or Pitcher) of the Year because variety is the spice of life, but this feels like one of those unique years where the Player of the Year and Hitter of the Year are clearly different players. Wells hit all season, though I think Dominguez’s year was more impressive given his age relative to the competition.

* Ivan Rodriguez is the only catcher with a 20/20 homer in MLB history (35 HR and 25 SB in 1999), though JT Realmuto has a chance to get there this year (21 HR and 18 SB). Guardians prospect Bo Naylor had 21 HR and 20 SB this season and Baseball America research guru Matt Eddy says he can’t find another 20/20 season by a minor league catcher.

Breakout Player of the Year: RHP Will Warren

2022 stats: 3.91 ERA (3.74 FIP), 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 53.1 GB% (129 IP at A+/AA)

The performance slipped following the midseason promotion to Double-A (2.94 FIP in High-A to 4.03 FIP in Double-A), though Warren did more than enough to impress scouts and statheads alike. The 2021 eighth round pick jumped right to High-A in his first pro season and never looked out of place. He’s taken over as the top pitching prospect in the organization (the trades certainly play a role in that) and yeah, anytime the previous year’s eighth round pick does that, it qualifies as a huge breakout. Hotshot teenager RHP Luis Serna was a consideration here, though Warren threw nearly 90 more innings, and that’s just too big a gap to ignore.

Best Pro Debut: OF Spencer Jones

2022 stats: .344/.425/.538 (173 wRC+), 4 HR, 12 SB, 18.9 K%, 10.4 BB% (106 PA in Rk/A-)

The Best Pro Debut conversation has changed in recent years. Teams have taken to completely shutting down their drafted pitchers, particularly the college guys*. Warren was drafted last year but didn’t actually pitch in a game until this season, so yes, I considered him for this award. Also, the start of the international signing period was moved from July to January. In the past guys would sign in July, go to Instructional League in September, and be better prepared for their true pro debut the next year. Now they sign in January and report almost directly to Spring Training, and don’t have as long a runway to get ready for pro ball. That changes the dynamic too.

* Only five of the 15 pitchers the Yankees drafted this year actually pitched in a game after signing, and they combined for 12.2 innings.

So, the player pool for this award has changed a bit, but in the end, Jones still takes it because he was so good this summer. This year’s first round pick clobbered the competition in the low minors, both in terms of raw stats and underlying data (his exit velocities are Judgian), and he swung and missed less than expected. Jones led all 2022 first round picks in batting average and was second to Royals OF Gavin Cross (No. 9 pick) in wRC+. He was awesome. Warren and Serna were the biggest competition here.

Comeback Player of the Year: C Anthony Seigler

2022 stats: .236/.405/.369 (125 wRC+), 7 HR, 16 SB, 19.7 K%, 21.8 BB% (417 PA at A-/A+)

I’m still not quite sure what to make of Seigler as a prospect, but there’s no denying 2022 was far and away the best and healthiest season of the 2018 first rounder’s career. He entered 2022 with only 391 career plate appearances and five home runs, and beat those totals this year. Seigler also was one of only 14 minor leaguers (out of 1,026) with more walks than strikeouts in at least 300 plate appearances. RHP Yoendrys Gomez deserves a shoutout here following last year’s injury (and COVID) interrupted season.

Most Disappointing Player: SS Alex Vargas

2022 stats: .203/.271/.311 (68 wRC+), 8 HR, 27 RBI, 28.5 K%, 8.1 BB% (431 PA in A-)

What was supposed to be a breakout season for my preseason No. 9 prospect instead resulted in the 18th worst wRC+ among the 603 minor leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances. He was better after July 1st (48 wRC+ before and 104 wRC+ after) but that’s still not saying much. Vargas swung and missed excessively and didn’t impact the baseball when he did make contact (exit velocities in the low-to-mid-80 mph range). Just a bummer of a season for one of the most physically gifted athletes in the system.

Lifetime Achievement Award: RHP Greg Weissert

2022 stats: 2.47 FIP (2.48 FIP), 34.0 K%, 10.2 BB%, 46.3 GB% (58.1 IP in AAA/MLB)

This award might look different in a few years. MLB has shortened the draft and eliminated the short season levels (and cut minor league contract slots), and thus those “late round pick hangs around for seven years” stories will be few and far between. It’s still relatively early in this new era of minor league baseball, but this award will really feel that effect in a few years.

For now, Weissert gets the nod for grinding it out in the minors (not to mention at home during the pandemic season) for six years before making his MLB debut last month. The Bay Shore native and Fordham product was an 18th round pick in 2016 ($75,000 bonus) and the Yankees didn’t even give him a chance to start in pro ball. They put him right in the bullpen.

Despite being a seasoned college guy, Weissert spent most of 2017 in Extended Spring Training before being assigned to Short Season Staten Island, an affiliate (and a level) that doesn’t exist anymore. It wasn’t until July 2019 that he reached Double-A for good and not until June 2021, five years after being drafted, that Weissert reached Triple-A.

Along the way Weissert was an interesting enough reliever who was a sleeper more than a bona fide prospect. He raised his profile on his own in 2019, when he learned a new slider grip by watching Chaz Roe videos on Twitter. From Randy Miller:

Being with the Yankees, it’s so competitive within the organization, so I told myself that I had to find something to make me stand out because everybody else was throwing so hard and had such good breaking balls. I was watching a Rays game one night and Roe was throwing really good sliders. I looked him up on Twitter and there was a video of him in the dugout showing his slider grip. I copied it in catch play one day and one of them took off. So I was like, “Alright, I’m going to sell out for this pitch and try to figure out a way to throw it in the strike zone.” Before I started implementing it in games, I was throwing both my old slider and this new one to see which one was going to work better. I ended up completely trashing the old one. This was in 2019. I figured it out that year in Trenton when I went up there from High-A.

The new slider gave Weissert a true out pitch, then last season he finally mastered a sinker fastball. He’d toyed with the sinker in the past and then things just clicked. He also added velocity. On Opening Day 2019, Weissert was primarily a low-90s four-seamer guy with an okay slider. Now he’s a mid-90s sinker/sweepy slider pitcher. The sinker and sweeper create that scissor effect teams are beginning to prioritize (GIF via Rob Friedman):

Armed with a new arsenal, Weissert pitched to a 1.76 ERA (3.01 FIP) with a 36.8% strikeout rate in 46 Triple-A innings to begin this season, and International League managers and coaches voted him the league’s best reliever in Baseball America’s best tools survey (subs. req’d). The Yankees summoned Weissert to the big leagues on Aug. 25th, at age 27.

Weissert’s MLB debut did not go well (hit batter, balk, hit batter, fly out, walk, walk in Oakland), but he recovered with back-to-back six up, six down outings. He appeared in 11 games with the Yankees and eight were scoreless, and at one point he struck out nine in a 23-batter span (39.1%). Weissert returned to Triple-A when Scott Effross came off the injured list on Sept. 22nd.

“Ryan Weber gave me some advice,” Weissert told Miller about finding success after a poor MLB debut. “He’s a pretty good friend of mine now. We were texting a little bit and he gave me some pointers on just settling in and getting those nerves out. There was a lot of anticipation and a lot of build up into that debut after all the time you have in the minors. So it definitely sped up a little bit, but I was able to step back and take a look at it objectively, and I went to the next one with a different mindset.”

An 18th round pick spending six years in the minors – and reinventing himself along the way – before finally reaching the big leagues is what this Lifetime Achievement Award is all about. Not every MLB player was a top prospect. Some were late rounders who had to prove themselves every step of the way before getting a shot. Weissert reached the show and is on the 2023 bullpen radar thanks to his hard work and sticktoitiveness.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jeff asks: Let's say the #2 seed is wrapped up with a game left. Aaron Judge has between 62 and 66 home runs, so he's already broken the Yankees and AL record. He is also .001 ahead in the AL batting race. If you play him, he could move up a spot on the all-time single season home run list (this is a great season but imagine ending up 3rd on the all-time list). On the other hand an 0-3 could drop him a point or more and he could lose the triple crown. Take rest out of the equation (and say Xander Bogaerts stubbed his toe the day before). Do you sit him? What do you value more, one spot higher on the single season home run list or the triple crown? Maybe the triple crown is the obvious choice for most but I think every spot you move up when you're in the top 10 is huge.

The cop out answer is I’d ask Judge what he wants to do, then let him do that. Personally, I think where in that 62-66 home run range we’re sitting is important. If it’s 62 and I can “only” move into fifth or sixth place on the single-season home run list, meh. But if it’s 66 and I can move into sole possession of third place with one swing, well now we’re talking.

The Triple Crown is extremely cool, it’s only been done 18 times in AL and NL history, but I feel like hitting the third most home runs in a season ever beats that. When you get down to it, the Triple Crown is just a series of numbers lining up right. Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown with a .330 AVG, 44 HR, and 139 RBI in 2012. Todd Helton hit .336 with 49 HR and 146 RBI in 2001, but he didn’t lead the league in anything, and didn’t win the Triple Crown. That’s just how things shook out that season.

Hitting 67 home runs, on the other hand, is you asserting your dominance over the sport. MLB’s batting averages and home run rates fluctuate, but there’s still something special about 60 home runs, right? That number – 60 – transcends eras. Hit 67 home runs and you get to say only two (2) players out of the roughly 100,000 player-seasons in history managed more homers than you.

Like I said, I’d ask Judge and let him do whatever he wants to do. If he wants to play, great. If he wants to sit out and take the Triple Crown, that’s cool too. If it were up to me, I’d play him. Getting to third place on the all-time single-season home run list trumps a Triple Crown for me.

Ray asks: Now that the Yankees have traded Montgomery does that increase the chances they bring back Taillon? What kind of contract do you think he might get?

Jameson Taillon has had some terrific starts in important games lately. He shut down the Rays a few weeks ago, which set the Yankees up well for the bullpen game the next day, and then he took the ball into the eighth inning against a good-hitting Blue Jays team in the AL East clincher. The home run rate is returning to normal (“only” seven allowed in his last nine starts) and Taillon has pitched to a 3.62 ERA (4.05 FIP) in his last 14 starts. That’ll work.

I’m planning to tackle the possibility of re-signing Taillon more in-depth after the postseason, but I think the Yankees have to seriously consider it. This is the 2023 rotation given who’s under contract/team control:

1. RHP Gerrit Cole
2. RHP Luis Severino (I assume the $15M club option is getting picked up)
3. LHP Nestor Cortes
4. RHP Frankie Montas
5. RHP Domingo German
6. RHP Clarke Schmidt

You don’t have to try hard to see the Yankees wanting to upgrade that No. 5 spot. Taillon isn’t an ace but I’d call him a higher end No. 3-4 starter. He’s tough (remember when he made two starts on a bad ankle in a postseason race last year?), he’s smart and shown the ability to make adjustments, and he’s handled New York. If Taillon’s your fourth best starter, I think you’re in okay shape.

The injury history is scary and the best way to retain Taillon may be the qualifying offer. His best case might be the Jon Gray contract (four years, $56M), but I could see the market pushing him into the Taijuan Walker range (two years, $20M). The qualifying offer would be a high salary one-year deal, but it’s still just a one-year deal, reducing the risk. That also allows Taillon to hit free agency next offseason with no draft pick compensation strings attached.

That said, Taillon turns 31 in November, and this might be (probably is) his best chance at a nice free agent payday. He may want to jump on the biggest contract offer this offseason, no matter what it is, just to lock in the guaranteed money. With his injury history, I’d get it. If there’s a bidding war, the Yankees are probably out. I could see them having interest in retaining Taillon at the qualifying offer though. They’re going to be over the luxury tax threshold next year anyway.

Brian asks: Continuing your obsession with pinch runners, are we sure T-Lo is a better base stealer than Florial or Wade? Is there Statcast data in AAA?

There is Statcast data at every level, we just don’t get access to it all. Fortunately you don’t need a big sample for the speed data, and all three guys have spent time in the big leagues this year. Their 2022 sprint speeds:

• Tim Locastro: 30.2 ft/s
• Tyler Wade: 29.0 ft/s
• Estevan Florial: 27.9 ft/s
• MLB average: 27.0 ft/s

Sprint speed is, for all intents and purposes, max speed. It is the player’s fastest one second on the bases. Acceleration and how quickly players get to max speed matter, but alas and alack, we have no numbers on that. All we know is their top speed, essentially.

Locastro is one of only 12 players with an average sprint speed over 30.0 ft/s, and he's not far behind the league leader (Corbin Carroll at 30.6 ft/s). Considering he tore his ACL last season, Locastro still runs exceptionally well. Wade runs very well too. Florial lags a bit behind those two in his limited action this year.

There is more to stealing a base than pure speed, of course. Instincts matter (i.e. knowing when to run), the ability to read the pitcher, all that. Florial stole 39 bases in Triple-A this season, but he also got caught 10 times. That 80% success rate is good but not elite. Wade is 23-for-29 (79%) between MLB and Triple-A this year. Locastro is 15-for-18 (83%).

It’s probably worth noting Locastro holds the Major League record for successful stolen bases to begin a career. He stole 29 straight bases before Yan Gomes threw him out last April. Locastro knows how to steal a base. Wade is more versatile and Florial is the best defensive outfielder and has the most pop in his bat, but as far as being a “pinch-run and steal a bag in a crucial spot” guy, I think Locastro is the best option. The man can fly.

Chris asks: Simple question: What's the record for the most home runs in a season when including the postseason?

I apologize for the boring answer, but the combined regular season plus postseason home run leaderboard is almost identical to the regular season home run leaderboard. That makes sense though, right? The regular season is way, way longer than the postseason, and for a long time the postseason was just the World Series. Babe Ruth only had seven games to pad his home run total each year (at most). Roger Maris too.

The record for homers in a postseason is 10 by Randy Arozarena in 2020, when there was an extra round (Arozarena also holds the single-postseason record with 86 plate appearances). The record in a “normal” postseason is eight home runs, done several times (most recently Nelson Cruz in 2011). Ruth never hit more than four homers in a single postseason (but again, that was only one series).

Also, shockingly few players in the top 20 of the single-season home run leaderboard played on postseason teams. Barry Bonds hit 73 homers in 2001 and the Giants finished three games out of the Wild Card spot. The Cardinals didn’t go to the postseason once during Mark McGwire’s heyday. The Cubs went once during Sammy Sosa’s peak and were swept in the NLDS.

Here is the combined regular season plus postseason home run leaderboard. All told, 11 times in history has a player hit 60+ dingers in games that matter:

1. Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants: 73 (didn’t make postseason)
2. Mark McGwire, 1998 Cardinals: 70 (didn’t make postseason)
3. Sammy Sosa, 1998 Cubs: 66 (66 regular season plus 0 postseason)
4. Mark McGwire, 1999 Cardinals: 65 (didn’t make postseason)
5. Sammy Sosa, 2001 Cubs: 64 (didn’t make postseason)
6. Sammy Sosa, 1999 Cubs: 63 (didn’t make postseason)
7. Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees: 62 (61 plus 1)
8. Babe Ruth, 1927 Yankees: 62 (60 plus 2)
9. Aaron Judge, 2022 Yankees: 61 and counting
10. Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees: 60 (59 plus 1)
11. Luis Gonzalez, 2001 Diamondbacks: 60 (57 plus 3)
12. Giancarlo Stanton, 2017 Marlins: 59 (didn’t make postseason)
13. Jimmie Foxx, 1932 Athletics: 58 (didn’t make postseason)
14. Hank Greenberg, 1938 Tigers: 58 (didn’t make postseason)
15. Ryan Howard, 2006 Phillies: 58 (didn’t make postseason)
16. Mark McGwire, 1997 Cardinals: 58 (didn’t make postseason)
17. Alex Rodriguez, 2002 Rangers: 57 (didn’t make postseason)
18. Ken Griffey Jr., 1997 Mariners: 56 (56 plus 0)
19. Ken Girffey Jr., 1998 Mariners: 56 (didn’t make postseason)
20. Hack Wilson, 1930 Cubs: 56 (didn’t make postseason)

Now that the Yankees have clinched a Wild Card Series bye, they can play at most 19 games this postseason. Judge’s best 19-game span this year was 13 homers in a few overlapping stretches in late July and early August. Do that in October and he’ll finish with at least 74 homers (the Yankees still have seven regular season games to play), and sit atop that leaderboard.

Ames asks: If the Yankees get to 100 wins (would need to go 5-3 the rest of the way following Tuesday night's game) it appears there will be 5 different 100 win teams this season (Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Braves, Yanks). That seems very high to me. Is this a historically rare occurrence?

More than rare. It’s never been done. The record is four 100-win teams in 2019. We are in an era of superteams and deep rebuilders, creating a lot of 100-win teams and a lot of 100-loss teams (the record is four 100-loss teams in 2002 and 2019). Here’s what each team needs to do the rest of the way to win 100 games:

• Dodgers and Astros: Already have 100 wins
• Mets: 2-4
• Braves: 3-3
• Yankees: 4-3
• All others: Can not win 100 games

The Braves and Mets play three games this weekend and they’ll take wins away from each other, though it is still mathematically possible for both to win 100 games. They just have to thread the needle a bit. The Yankees not getting to 100 wins after the start they had would be a letdown, but you know what? I would’ve taken 96+ wins in a heartbeat in Spring Training. Good season.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)