September 23rd, 2022: AL East Race, Judge, Stanton, Bader, Post-Clinch To-Do List, Britton, Mailbag

Self-promotion: I wrote something at CBS looking at Aaron Judge’s next contract. I landed at nine years and $38M per year, or $342M total. I’m gonna make you click to see how I arrived there, but I didn’t expect the number to be that big. I guess when you have the contract year Judge is having, the number tends to be pretty big (for what it’s worth, ZiPS projects an eight-year deal in the $270M to $290M range). Now let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekday thoughts. Gleyber Torres had a two-homer inning Wednesday (video) and it was only the third coolest home run thing the Yankees did this week. He’s the fifth Yankee with a two-homer inning, joining Joe DiMaggio, Joe Pepitone, Cliff Johnson, and Alex Rodriguez (A-Rod did it twice). These last three games are the most fun the Yankees have been in about three months. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

AL East race update

The Yankees are postseason bound. Thursday night’s win clinched a postseason spot. Worst case scenario is the Yankees are the third Wild Card team, and the AL East lead is up to eight in the loss column with 13 to play. Not a done deal, but the Yankees are in great, great shape. The magic number to clinch the division title is six.

“You never want to take it for granted,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch about clinching a postseason spot. “We’re in the dance and we’ve got a chance.”

The Yankees can clinch the AL East as soon as Sunday. More likely, it’ll happen in Toronto sometime next week. The Rays and Blue Jays are playing this weekend (Tampa won the opener Thursday) and the best case scenario is the Rays winning three of four. In that case each team would leave the series at 85-68, a minimum of seven games behind the Yankees.

As far as a Wild Card series bye, the magic number to finish with a better record than the AL Central winner is four. That won’t clinch a bye. That would just ensure the AL East title comes with a bye. The Yankees still have to go out and win the division to get that bye. Things got a little hairy a few weeks ago, but the tide is turning, and the Yankees are days away from an AL East title. The good vibes are returning.

Judge vs. History update

We have reached the “MLB is using special baseballs” portion of Aaron Judge’s season. Judge swatted his 60th – 60th! – home run of the season Tuesday and the Yankees did retrieve the ball, which had the special invisible marker the league uses to authenticate major milestones. Here is the updated single-season home run leaderboard:

1. Barry Bonds, 2001 Giants: 73
2. Mark McGwire, 1998 Cardinals: 70
3. Sammy Sosa, 1998 Cubs: 66
4. Mark McGwire, 1999 Cardinals: 65
5. Sammy Sosa, 2001 Cubs: 64
6. Sammy Sosa, 1999 Cubs: 63
7. Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees: 61
8. Babe Ruth, 1927 Yankees: 60
9. Aaron Judge, 2022 Yankees: 60 and counting

“When you talk about Ruth and Maris and Mantle and all these Yankees greats, you never imagine as a kid getting mentioned with them,” Judge told Hoch following Tuesday’s win. “It’s an incredible honor and something I don’t take lightly at all.”

I thought Judge had No. 61 Thursday. I think we all did. His ninth inning fly out looked gone off the bat (video), and I mean even before the FOX camera work made it look like the ball was going to hit the 4 train. That ball is Monument Park on a warmer night. Alas. Judge is 2-for-6 with four walks and two strikeouts since hitting No. 60. None of the walks were intentional, but they kinda were.

Kyle Schwarber remains a distant second on the home run leaderboard with 40 (Yordan Alvarez is second in the American League with 37). The equivalent to Judge’s homer lead is something like Wayne Gretzky scoring 92 goals in 1981-82 and the runner-up having 64, or Dan Marino throwing 48 touchdowns in 1984 and the runner-up having 32. He is lapping the field.

“It’s unbelievable, 60 to 40,” Boone told Hoch on Tuesday. “When I was playing, guys were routinely hitting in the 50s and 40s, bunched up in there. It ain’t happening now.”

Judge entered play Thursday ninth among outfields in home runs. Not outfielders. Literally entire outfields. Judge has hit more homers than the Mariners (58), Mets (51), Cardinals (50), and Blue Jays (45) outfield units, among other teams. Also, the 60th homer moved Judge into the lead for the batting title. Here’s the AL batting race through Thursday’s games:

1. Aaron Judge: .316
2. Xander Bogaerts: .314
3. Luis Arraez: .313
4. Jose Abreu: .308
5. Nate Lowe: .307

Judge is the first player to lead his league in all three Triple Crown categories in September since Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown in 2012. Yankees pitchers can help Judge here too. The Red Sox are in town this weekend. Keep Bogaerts in check – Thursday night’s 0-for-5 was a great start – and it’ll help Judge in the batting race. The pressure’s on, pitchers.

An underrated crazy thing is Judge leading MLB with 128 RBI while taking 96% of his plate appearances as the No. 1 or 2 hitter, which aren’t traditional RBI spots. Judge has hit with 386 runners on base this season, the 21st most in baseball. Pete Alonso is second with 121 RBI. He’s primarily hit cleanup and has batted with an MLB leading 471 runners on base. Apply Judge’s RBI rate to Alonso and he’d have 156 RBI with all those baserunners. Goodness.

Three games remain on the homestand and six home games remain this season, and we all want Judge to hit Nos. 61 and 62 this weekend. If it happens in Toronto next week, it happens in Toronto, but the Yankee Stadium crowd has been electric the last few nights. This needs to happen in the Bronx. Judge will do it. He’s done nothing but rise to the occasion this year.

“To get a chance to play baseball at Yankee Stadium, in a packed house for a first-place team, that’s what you dream about,” Judge told Hoch earlier this week. “I love every second of it. I’m trying to enjoy it all and soak it all in, but I know I’ve still got a job to do out in the field, every single day. I’ve just got to keep my head down, keep preparing and stay mentally focused.”

(If Judge gets Nos. 61 and 62 out of the way soon, and if the Yankees clinch the AL East in the coming days, I could see Boone giving Judge a day off next week in Toronto, especially given the turf. Sitting Judge next Wednesday, the day before the off-day to give him two straight days off his feet, feels like a thing the Yankees want to do.)

Stanton’s ultimate grand slam

The Yankees hit two ultimate grand slams – a walk-off grand slam down three runs – in their history prior to 2022. They’ve now hit two in a month’s time. Josh Donaldson hit one on Aug. 17th and Giancarlo Stanton hit one this past Tuesday (video). The 2022 Yankees and 1956 Pirates are the only teams with two ultimate grand slams in one season. (There are 32 on record.)

“It’s about damn time,” Stanton told Betelhem Ashame after the game, referring to his lack of production since coming off the injured list.

Babe Ruth (Sept. 24th, 1925 vs. White Sox) and Jason Giambi (May 17th, 2022 vs. Twins in the rain) are the only other Yankees to hit an ultimate grand slam. You’d think a team that has been around as long as the Yankees, and has had as many great home run hitters as the Yankees, would have more ultimate grand slams, but nope. Just two prior to 2022. Crazy.

Tuesday’s game was the perfect encapsulation of the Stanton experience. He went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts in his first three at-bats and was in a 1-for-21 with 13 strikeouts skid, and he looked about as bad as a hitter can look at the plate. Then he hit a 118 mph missile that got only this high off the ground …

… and won the damn game. That’s Giancarlo. No matter how bad he’s going at the plate, he can change the game with his next swing. There’s no salvaging Stanton’s season batting line now (.215/.301/.462 and 116 wRC+) but he went deep again Thursday, so maybe things are moving in the right direction. Put a few dents in the scoreboard in October and all will be forgotten.

“He’s one of the biggest pieces of our offense, if not the biggest. When he gets hot, there’s no telling what he’s going to do on a nightly basis,” Judge told Ashame. “Even tonight, he had a couple of rough at-bats to begin with, but the guy, he didn’t care. He’s getting booed, doesn’t matter. That just shows you how mentally tough he is. He’s a leader in that clubhouse, and we ride and die with everybody.”

Bader debuts

Is it just me or does Harrison Bader look like Clint Frazier in the batter’s box? They have similar builds and stances, I think. Anyway, 49 days after coming over at the trade deadline, Bader finally made his Yankees debut Tuesday, and it went great. The ninth inning hogged all the attention, but 2-for-4 with three runs driven in plus a nifty baserunning play is a great debut. He drove in two more runs Wednesday and another Thursday as well.

“That was the goal,” Bader told Brian Lewis about making an immediate impact. “Everything that came prior to being able to debut is in the past and I just wanted to be – whether it was a catch or a stolen bag or whatever – I was just really wanting and ready to be effective for this team to help them win the game. And I had a couple of situations where I found some holes, and it worked out in my favor. Still work to do. We’ve got a long road ahead. But it felt good to deliver for this clubhouse, for sure.”

We haven’t seen Bader make a truly spectacular defensive play yet but his footwork on Abe Almonte’s tenth inning fly ball Thursday was subtly brilliant. He put himself in position to make a strong throw to hold the runner at second despite having to range a good bit to his left. This is low-key outstanding:

Bader is a defense-first guy but the Yankees need him to hit too. Even with Oswaldo Cabrera heating up, there are still a few holes at the bottom of the lineup, and Yankees outfielders other than Judge are hitting .223/.312/.382 in over 1,300 plate appearances this season (yes, really). Depending on DJ LeMahieu’s health, this week’s lineups …

1. RF Aaron Judge
2. 1B Anthony Rizzo
3. 2B Gleyber Torres
4. 3B Josh Donaldson
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. LF Oswaldo Cabrera
7. CF Harrison Bader
8. SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa
9. Catcher’s spot

… looked very much like the starting lineup we could see in October. Maybe flip Donaldson and Stanton if Giancarlo gets going, but those are the nine names and that’s the basic order. A productive Bader in the No. 7 spot would go a long way to lengthening the lineup. Three black holes in the 7-8-9 spots would equal a lot of quick innings in the postseason.

It’s easy to see why the Yankees targeted Bader and so far, so good. Catch everything and come up with some timely knocks, and it will be a massive upgrade over what the Yankees have run out there in two of the three outfield spots most of the season. The Yankees were willing to be patient with Bader and he’s rewarding that patience in the very early going.

“I felt very comfortable,” Bader told Lewis after his debut. “The fans in New York are very sweet. I love their cheers. It was just a great win. It was a beautiful night. I felt super comfortable.”

Miscellany

Welcome back, Luis Severino. Wednesday night he made his first start since July 13th and he looked exactly like Luis Severino. Velocity was there, stuff was firm, he missed bats, got weak contact, the works (against an admittedly weak Pirates lineup). Couldn’t have asked for much better following a two-month layoff. Now the Yankees just have to get Severino stretched back out for the postseason (he threw only 64 pitches in five innings) … Following Tuesday’s start Nestor Cortes owns a 2.67 ERA (146 ERA+) in 145 innings. He has two starts remaining (maybe three depending what the Yankees do with the rotation around the off-day next week) and the last Yankee to throw 150 innings with an ERA that low or an ERA+ that high was Rudy May in 1980 (2.46 ERA and 160 ERA+ in 175.1 innings). Just an incredible, best case scenario kinda season for Nasty Nestor … Cabrera made his left field debut Tuesday night and he made a nice catch at the wall (video). Of course he did. Remarkable how the kid looks comfortable no matter where the Yankees put him. I’m not sure where this originated, so I can’t give proper credit, but it did give me a chuckle:

Wednesday night Cabrera swatted a grand slam off former Yankees prospect Roansy Contreras (Cabrera and Contreras were briefly teammates with Low-A Charleston in 2018) and is 11-for-36 (.305) with three homers in his last 10 games. The power is coming, he takes quality at-bats, and he plays every position like he’s been playing it his entire life. Cabrera is a good, fun player … Some of the recent pinch-running decisions have been hard to decipher (Estevan Florial ran at first base with the bases loaded in Boston two weeks ago and Oswald Peraza did the same earlier this week, both over Tim Locastro), but, when the Yankees needed someone to go steal a bag late in a close game, Locastro got the call and he stole that base Thursday. I’m not sure why the kids pinch-ran in those spots. When the Yankees need a high leverage stolen base though, it sure seems like Locastro is their guy. I’m definitely making too much of the pinch-running assignments, aren’t I? I am, but hey, it could change a game … And finally, the Yankees are up to seven walk-off homers and 16 walk-off wins in general this season. The seven walk-off homers tie their single-season record set in 2009. The 16 walk-off wins are one fewer than the franchise record set in 1943, and the all-time record is 18 walk-off wins by the 1959 Pirates. The Yankees have six home games remaining. Can they get to 18? Probably not, but it would be fun to try.

2. The post-postseason clinch to-do list. The Yankees are heading back to the postseason. Thursday’s win clinched a postseason berth so, at worst, the Yankees will be the third Wild Card team. They still lead the AL East and are in position to secure a Wild Card Series bye, but a postseason spot is assured. There will be October baseball in the Bronx.

Clinching a postseason spot was only Step 1 in a journey we all hope will end with a parade down the Canyon of Heroes. The Yankees still have a good deal of work to do before the regular season ends 12 days from now. Here’s what’s left on the to-do list before the season lets out.

Clinch the AL East (and a Wild Card Series bye)

Duh. The Yankees are going to the postseason but they still have to nail down the division title and a bye. The magic number to clinch a better record than the AL Central winner is four, at which point winning the AL East will guarantee a Wild Card Series bye. The magic number to clinch the division is six. It could happen as soon as Sunday. So, get that done. No one wants to drag this out and make these last 12 days more stressful than they need to be.

Stretch out Severino

Remember when we all wondered how the Yankees would pare their rotation down to only four starters for the postseason? Good times. The Frankie Montas injury leaves the Yankees with a clearly defined top three, and a few candidates for the fourth spot. The postseason rotation looks something like this:

1. Gerrit Cole (Aaron Boone already confirmed he’s starting Game 1)
2. Luis Severino or Nestor Cortes
3. Luis Severino or Nestor Cortes
4. Taillon or Domingo German on a short leash, or a full-fledged bullpen game

There will be plenty of time to discuss the postseason rotation later (and we’ll definitely do it). For now, we know Severino will be in it, and that means the Yankees have to get him stretched out. He threw 64 pitches in five innings Wednesday. With two regular season starts remaining, figure Severino goes 75-80 pitches in his next start, then 90-95 pitches the start after that.

Cortes returned from his groin injury two weeks ago and threw 58, 65, and 87 pitches in his three starts back. Severino is a bit ahead of that pace, but that’s about the build up he’s looking at. Add 10-15 pitches each time out. The Yankees were exceedingly cautious with Severino (remember, he was upset he was put on the 60-day injured list) and I’m sure that will continue to be the case. That said, there’s only so much time to get him stretched out now. It has to be done.

Play Stanton in the outfield

Aaron Boone recently told Dan Martin that Giancarlo Stanton’s return to the outfield is “on pause,” but unless he’s playing through serious lingering foot/Achilles stuff, they have to get him back out there at some point, right? Just to make sure he’s an option? DJ LeMahieu might be coming back soon. Stanton in the outfield would give the Yankees a little more lineup flexibility in October.

Because he’s a career outfielder, I don’t think Stanton will need much work out there to pick it up again. This isn’t Oswaldo Cabrera learning the outfield on the fly. It’s more about testing Stanton physically (the Yankees are obviously keeping him at DH to keep him healthy). You don’t want to put him in left field for the first time since July 21st (!) in Game 1, then have him wake up sore and compromised for Game 2. Get Stanton out there to see what’s what.

Get Holmes right

And really the entire bullpen. The late innings are very unsettled, with Clay Holmes in particular becoming a liability. Tuesday I noted he’s given up a lot of hard contact lately, then he served up a three-run homer that night. He also allowed what would have been a double Thursday had Aaron Judge not thrown out Tommy Pham at second.

The Yankees don’t have a closer right now – Boone said he’s going to mix and match in the ninth inning for the time being – which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Holmes being as ineffective as he’s been the last few weeks is a bad thing, however. They have to get him right to have their best chance at a deep run in October. The tenth inning Thursday was the best inning Holmes has thrown in some time. Hopefully that’s a sign of things to come.

Fixing Holmes is easier said than done, and his struggles have gone on long enough that it’s not unreasonable to worry the clock may have struck midnight. Still, I’d like to think there’s an effective pitcher still hiding away in there. I mean, the guy’s still throwing 100 mph sinkers, right? Getting Holmes on track is among the biggest priorities these last few weeks.

Try Taillon in relief

Taillon has made 141 Major League appearances and every single one was a start. Thursday’s fine start notwithstanding, it’s not hard to envision Taillon being the odd man out of the postseason rotation, in which case he could be asked to fill a different role. Do you really want Taillon coming out of the bullpen for the first time in his career in a postseason game?

There’s a chance Taillon has no issues adjusting to a bullpen and makes a seamless transition. But, if you have a couple of meaningless games to play with late in the season, why not try it and give him time to make that adjustment, just in case it doesn’t happen instantly? Lance Lynn had prior bullpen experience, yet the Yankees made sure to give him two relief appearances late in 2018 just to let him get settled, because the bullpen would be his role in the postseason.

And who knows, maybe Taillon turns into a fierce short reliever. He still has a better than average swing and miss rate on his four-seamer. Perhaps he adds a tick or two in relief and dominates in short bursts. Would be cool. Jameson Taillon, Postseason Closer would be a fun development. Either way, the Yankees might as well try him in relief. Nothing to lose.

Evaluate the injured players

Can LeMahieu still be a factor? What about Zack Britton? The Yankees need the old September roster expansion rules more than ever season, but they’re capped at 28 players, so seeing what Britton and LeMahieu (and Miguel Castro?) can provide will require roster sacrifices elsewhere. It’s too bad. Point is, the Yankees are at their best when Britton and LeMahieu are contributing. So, it’s time to find out whether they can contribute. The last few games may be meaningless, but that doesn't mean they won't be important for some players.

3. Mining the news. There are a couple Yankees and Yankees-adjacent news items I want to touch on real quick, so let’s get to ‘em.

Britton returns, Wandy injured, Andujar designated

Surprise, Zack Britton is back. And surprise, Wandy Peralta is hurt. He has a minor back issue – “left thoracic spine tightness” is the official word – and is expected to return for the final series of the regular season. I thought it was weird when Peralta didn’t even warm up during Tuesday’s bullpen marathon. Now we know why. Get well soon, Wandy.

“It’s still there today, not getting much improvement there,” Boone told Erik Boland about Wandy, referring to the back issue that has lingered a few weeks now. “We don’t think it’s serious.”

Britton completed his rehab program (he threw only 6.2 official minor league innings) and with Peralta set to miss a little bit, might as well activate him and see what’s what. He has less than two weeks to show he’s worth a spot on the postseason roster and I’m not sure it’s possible. The best case is what, 7-8 innings before the end of the season? Maybe it is enough.

“The reason why I kind of pushed things was because I wanted to pitch this year for this team and help them win,” Britton told Bryan Hoch. “There’s no benefit for me personally, other than the fact that maybe I can have an impact on a World Series championship team. It’s really the only goal for me at this stage of my career.”

As for Andujar, the Yankees needed a 40-man roster spot to activate Britton off the 60-day injured list, and he was the obvious candidate to get dropped. He’s hit .228/.255/.318 (56 wRC+) in 376 scattered plate appearances since his 2019 shoulder injury, and has been in the “last guy called up and first guy sent down” role this year. Sucks, but it is what it is.

One of two things will happen now. Either Andujar will get claimed on waivers, or he’ll clear and go to Triple-A Scranton as a non-40-man roster player. He doesn’t have enough service time to refuse the outright assignment and keep the remainder of his contract. The season is almost over, so many he’ll forfeit two weeks of pay, but I dunno. Regardless, Andujar’s time in the organization is all but over. He’s a goner after the season.

Injury updates

Harrison Bader came back Tuesday, Luis Severino came back Wednesday, and Zack Britton and Scott Effross came back Thursday. The Yankees are closer to being whole. Here’s what’s up with the guys who are still on the injured list:

• Matt Carpenter (foot): The boot is off and he stood in during bullpen sessions earlier this week to track pitches. The ramp up to actual baseball activities has begun.
• Mike King (elbow): He’ll have his next scans next week. Four of the five doctors King saw previously believe he’ll avoid Tommy John surgery. The other said it was 50/50.
• DJ LeMahieu (toe): Boone acknowledged LeMahieu won’t be 100% when he returns. They’ll get him as close as possible and go from there.
• Frankie Montas (shoulder): He received a cortisone shot and said he hopes to make another start before the end of the regular season.
• Albert Abreu (elbow), Miguel Castro (shoulder), Stephen Ridings (shoulder): They are all on rehab assignments. Not sure when (or if) they’ll be activated.

Boone said the best case for Carpenter (and Andrew Benintendi) is a return in the postseason, so we can rule out regular season games. Also, players have to be activated between rounds. You can’t make a roster move in the middle of a postseason series unless you're removing an injured player from your roster (and then that player is ineligible for the next round).

As for Montas, the Yankees haven’t said anything about a timetable for his return and a pitcher getting a cortisone shot in his shoulder usually isn’t a “come back as good as new in 15 days” thing. He’s probably headed for a slower build up and can maybe be an option in the postseason at some point. I dunno. We’ll see. For the most part, guys are getting healthy. Good news.

Canada lifting travel restrictions

Canada will lift its vaccination requirement for international travelers on Sept. 30th. The Yankees will be there next week (Sept. 26th to 28th). Benintendi is out injured now and I have no idea whether any of the other new Yankees are vaccinated (Bader, Effross, etc.), but we’ll find out soon enough. After that series, the travel restrictions are no more.

More important than next week’s series is the postseason. The Blue Jays currently sit in the top Wild Card Spot and thus are in position to host the best-of-three Wild Card Series. If they hold on, whoever they face won’t play short-handed. Robbie Ray didn’t make the trip to Toronto earlier this year, the Rays have had a few relievers skip their Toronto trips, etc.

And, of course, if the Blue Jays advance to the ALDS and beyond, they’ll play more postseason home games against teams at full strength. I’m not sure this will matter much to the Yankees (or matter at all), but the travel restrictions going away does potentially change the postseason outlook. Life could be a little more difficult for the Blue Jays in October.

Yankees will owe $9.4M in luxury tax

According to Ron Blum, a record-tying six teams will pay luxury tax this season. The Yankees are of course among them. Here are the six teams with their luxury tax payrolls and tax bills:

1. Mets: $298.8M ($29.9M tax bill)
2. Dodgers: $289.96M ($29.4M tax bill)
3. Yankees: $267M ($9.4M tax bill)
4. Phillies: $243M ($2.6M)
5. Red Sox: $234.5M ($900,000 tax bill)
6. Padres: $233M ($800,000 tax bill)

The Mets are on pace to set a new payroll record and I should note those numbers are not final (there’s still two weeks to play and call ups can add to the payroll), but they’re close. Also, the Dodgers were slated for a $310M luxury tax payroll before Trevor Bauer’s suspension wiped most of his contract off the books.

I don’t understand what the Red Sox and Padres are doing. What’s the point of going only a little over the $230M threshold? You’re not getting any of the benefits of staying under (lower tax rates next year, better compensation for losing a qualified free agent, etc.) but also aren’t spending big on the best possible roster. Very weird to go just a little over the threshold. Whatever.

Anyway, the Mets are spending a combined $328.7M between payroll and tax. The Yankees are at $276.4M combined. That $52.3M difference shouldn’t sit well with anyone. Same market, new ballparks that opened the same year, both trying to win the World Series, etc. No reason the Yankees should be outspent this much. I’m a simple man. I just want a team that runs a payroll commensurate with revenue. That’s not too much to ask.

The latest on Mayea

Last December we learned of Cuban outfielder Brandon Mayea, who the Yankees are expected to sign when the 2023 international signing period opens in January. A lot can change in 10 months and earlier this week Ben Badler (subs. req’d) provided an updated look at next year’s international class, giving us a fresh scouting report.

First things first: Brandon is actually Brando. Brando Mayea, which is a supremely cool name. A cool, distinctive name is a must. You never see any Dan Smiths or Joe Davises atop the WAR leaderboard. And second, here are the relevant parts of the scouting report:

Mayea is a well-rounded player with a good blend of tools and game skills from a prospect who projects to stick at a premium position. At the plate, Mayea has a simple, efficient swing from the right side and a mature approach, using the whole field with good plate coverage. He has consistently performed well in games, routinely finding the sweet spot for frequent hard contact. Mayea isn't that big, but as he's gotten stronger, he has started to show more home run power to his pull side, though it's still his pure hitting ability that sticks out more. With more strength has also come significantly more speed, as Mayea is now a well above-average runner who moves well in center field. His arm has stood out from an early age and is now a plus tool.

Last year Mayea was billed as a “top of the class” prospect and Badler has him No. 2 on his board, though his board is not a true prospect ranking. It’s a ranking of expected signing bonuses. That said, signing bonus is a pretty good proxy for talent. The best, most highly sought after players get the most money, so Mayea ranking No. 2 indicates he is highly regarded.

So, this update is there is no update. Mayea is still expected to sign with the Yankees and the scouting report is unchanged. He remains highly regarded and that’s good news. Kids this young can change so quickly. You’d be surprised how many sign, hit a growth spurt, then slow down and lose athleticism.

Salazar and Cannon released

The Yankees released two notable-ish minor leaguers recently. First, righty Danny Salazar was cut loose. The 32-year-old allowed one run in 2.1 innings with Triple-A Scranton around a stint on the COVID list. It was Salazar’s first official game action at any level since 2019. It was always a long shot he would contribute to the Yankees, and they must have not been all that impressed in his limited action to pull the plug on the experiment so soon. So it goes.

And second, first baseman Connor Cannon, better known as the other guy the Yankees received in the Wandy Peralta/Mike Tauchman trade. Cannon is a three true outcomes DH type who’s had a ton of injuries, and he hit .154/.289/.256 (67 wRC+) with a 43.7% strikeout rate in 39 Low-A games as a 24-year-old this year. With Cannon getting released and Tauchman now playing in Korea, Magic Wandy is the last man standing from that trade. A good one, that was.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Stephan asks: Is Judge having this season good or bad for the Yankees long term? I don't like the track record of aging players with injury histories signing massive long term deals. After this season Judge is going to get paid, either by the Yankees taking on a bad contract which will (it shouldn't but it will) limit future spending, or he will go elsewhere and the Yankees get nothing. I feel like a "meh" season from him would have been better as it would allow the Yanks to give him a big enough offer to stay without hamstringing them. So while it is fun to watch, I'm not sure how to think about it. (Caveat: If we win the WS this year then who cares.)

Look at what they’ve done to us. Aaron Judge is having one of the 20-25 best offensive seasons in history, maybe even better than that, and we’re talking about whether the richest and most popular team in a league without a salary cap signing him to a big contract would be a bad idea. This shouldn’t even be a question. Hal Steinbrenner has broken everyone’s brain.

Sign any free agent and you’re paying him for what he will do rather than what he has done, and it’s unlikely Judge will do this again. Then again, I said that after 2017, so what do I know? Judge has performed at an MVP caliber level throughout his career, so he’s starting from a very high baseline, and he’s been healthy the last two years. The injury concerns aren’t recent.

The end of Judge’s next contract is likely to be ugly because the end of most long-term contracts that take players deep into their 30s are ugly. Teams enter into these contracts knowing that, and they do it to get the greatness upfront. That was true with Gerrit Cole, that was true when taking on Giancarlo Stanton’s contract, and it will be true with Judge’s next contract. It is what it is.

For argument’s sake, let’s say Judge signs a $45M a year contract. That’s $14.5M a year more than the extension offered in Spring Training. Do you know what $14.5M a year buys you these days? That’s more or less what Jon Gray ($14M per year) and Eduardo Rodriguez ($15.4M per year) got this past offseason. It’s roughly DJ LeMahieu money ($15M annually).

My point is whatever the Yankees have to add to their extension offer to re-sign Judge won’t be that much in the grand scheme of things. There’s no reason it should derail their payroll situation long-term. And really, if the Yankees use Judge’s salary as an excuse to pass on other stuff, then they were probably going to do that all along, no matter if it was $30.5M a year or $45M a year.

If the Yankees re-sign Judge to a big long-term deal and then don’t raise payroll to build the best possible team around him, that’s an ownership problem, not a Judge problem, and ownership should be hammered accordingly. The difference in annual salary between the extension offer and his next contract won’t be – shouldn’t be – as prohibitive as it may seem.

Tom asks: Is it crazy to think the Yankees should hand Gleyber Torres a left fielder's glove for the next two weeks and see how he takes to it? He's their weakest infield defender, and the Yankees are not squeezing him, Stanton, and DJ into the same lineup (forget about Carpenter), without one of those guys playing a corner outfield spot. They've shown no interest in putting Stanton in the outfield at all, or in sitting Donaldson or IKF. If not that, how is this all going to work?

Not crazy! I don’t think it will happen but I don’t think it’s crazy at all. The Yankees are far enough down their left field depth chart that starting Oswaldo Cabrera out there is the best option, so why not Gleyber? He’s played the outfield briefly in four-man outfield assignments, DJ LeMahieu might return soon, and last week Aaron Boone told Dan Martin that Giancarlo Stanton’s return to the outfield is “on pause.” So again, why not Torres?

Gleyber in the outfield is the kinda thing the Yankees can try after they clinch the AL East and a Wild Card Series bye. That all could happen as soon as Sunday, giving them 10 meaningless games to play with. Unless Torres or Stanton plays the outfield, I have no idea how the Yankees can get all their veterans in the postseason lineup. Might as well try Gleyber in left field once the games are rendered meaningless. (To be clear, I have zero expectation of this happening).

Jonathan asks: So, let's say the Yankees had wanted to trade for Lou Trivino and Harrison Bader at the deadline, but not Montas (and not give up Montgomery). Would some combination of JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, and Cooper Bowman been enough to get it done, whether as a 3-way trade or two separate trades?

It would have to have been a three-team trade, I think. The Cardinals have a huge NL Central lead now, but they were three games back at the deadline, and their plan all along was to contend in Albert Pujols’ and Yadier Molina’s (and maybe Adam Wainwright’s) final season. They needed rotation help and trading Bader for prospects probably wasn’t going to work for them.

St. Louis had interest in Frankie Montas at the deadline. The Blue Jays, Cardinals, and Yankees were the three teams in the mix down to the end. Would it have been possible to engineer a three-team trade using the same players, only with the Yankees keeping Jordan Montgomery?

• Cardinals get: Montas
• Yankees get: Bader and Trivino
• Athletics get: Bowman, Medina, Sears, Waldichuk

That sounds fine now, but geez, not sure I would have been a fan of giving up that much to get an injured Bader at the deadline (or a healthy Bader, for that matter). Take Waldichuk out and you’d have my attention, but why would the A’s do that? The Cardinals would have to send a prospect(s) to the Athletics to even that out. The framework seems workable though.

Targeting Montgomery suggests the Cardinals wanted a good Major League starter with control beyond 2022 and not just an innings filler for the stretch run. Unless they gave up Nestor Cortes, a three-team trade was the only way the Yankees were getting that done without Montgomery, and only two other controllable starters were traded at the deadline: Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle. St. Louis had interest in Mahle. Maybe there was a three-team deal to be made there?

I’d like to think the Yankees could find a way to acquire Bader and Trivino – good players but not world-beaters – without giving up Montgomery, but satisfying the Cardinals wouldn’t have been easy. They wanted a good starter they could keep in 2023, not prospects, and it’s hard enough to trade for a controllable starter as it is.

Bob asks: What are your thoughts on Matt Carpenter? Was this year real or just a tease? If Rizzo opts out would Carpenter be an option for 1B next year?

Matt Carpenter hit .305/.412/.727 (217 wRC+) in 154 plate appearances this year and was only slightly better than Aaron Judge has been in over 600 plate appearances (.316/.422/.703 and 211 wRC+). Crazy. I can’t say I expect Carpenter to do that again, though there are reasons to believe he can be a productive player in 2023, even at age 37. Let’s list ‘em:

• He overhauled his swing. This is a big one. The swing adjustment is a tangible reason to believe his 2022 success is more than a 154 plate appearance fluke.
• Carpenter hit the snot out of the ball. His 13.7% barrel rate is on par with guys like Bryce Harper (13.7%), Julio Rodriguez (13.2%), and Ronald Acuna (13.0%).
• His plate discipline remains excellent. Carpenter’s 17.8% chase rate was in line with his career average (18.6%) and far better than the MLB average (29.1%).
• The 60.0% pull rate and 22.8% ground ball rate point to a lefty who is tailor made for the short porch. (It was 47.3% and 31.8% from 2019-21, respectively.)

Carpenter’s numbers against lefties this season were fluky (253 wRC+ in 38 plate appearances) and his track record suggests he’ll need a platoon partner. Even then, can Carpenter give you a 120 wRC+ with 15-20 homers against righties next year? Yeah, I think that’s possible, especially with infield shifts going away. There are reasons to believe there’s still life in his bat.

Of course, it’s also possible Carpenter’s bat completely craters at 37. We saw it happen with Alfonso Soriano. He came over at the 2013 trade deadline and was amazing, then was so bad in 2014 the Yankees released him in July. If it happens, it happens. Carpenter is unlikely to get a big contract, so if you have to release him, it’s an easy pill to swallow.

As for replacing Anthony Rizzo at first, the Yankees are too all-in on defense to go with Carpenter full-time, but I don’t think it would be a terrible idea. Platoon Carpenter with DJ LeMahieu, and pull Carpenter for defense late in close games, and you could have a productive first base tandem. I would rather have a full-time first baseman and use Carpenter as a platoon guy who spots starts at first base and DH (and right field?), but as a platoon option at first base, he could work.

Dan asks: With the new shift rule stating that infielders need to have both feet on the dirt at the time of the pitch, does that mean that when the infield is “in” they can’t be on the grass between the baselines and home plate? Or if expecting a bunt, can the 1B/3B not be close to home plate?

Infielders can play in on the infield grass. The “have both feet on the infield dirt” rule is really a “don’t have your feet on the outfield grass” rule. The infield grass is cool, so Anthony Rizzo can still stand five away from the plate in bunt situations. Also, five-man infields are still allowed. You can bring an outfielder in and stick him anywhere on the infield, as long as there are at least two players on each side of second base. The Yankees used a five-man infield in Milwaukee last weekend but they don’t do it often.

Rob asks: I remember John Flaherty said that Ryan Weber is a throwback to pitchers from the 70s and 80s with his sinker/slider combo. Makes me wonder, which current Yankee wouldn't look out of place in the past? Have to say Tim Locastro's skill set as a speedster without a lot of power would've made him a consistent 50+ stolen base guy no?

Yeah, I could definitely see Locastro as a 50-steal, 80 OPS+ leadoff guy in the 1970s and 1980s. A Julio Cruz type, basically. Isiah Kiner-Falefa also jumps to mind. He is exactly the kinda low power/bat control guy who would have hit second and moved runners over back in the day. Harrison Bader has a bit of a throwback skill set too.

On the pitching side, geez, no one on the current staff fits what pitching staffs looked like back in the day. Someone with Jonathan Loaisiga’s stuff would have been burned at the stake for being a witch in the 1970s. Maybe Nestor Cortes and Lucas Luetge fit as throwbacks? Actually, Nestor definitely does. That’s really it. Kiner-Falefa is the most “1970s and 1980s” player on the roster for me. It doesn’t get more old school No. 2 hitter than him.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)