September 19th, 2022: AL East Race, Judge, Holmes, Cole, Stanton, Montas, Arizona Fall League

According to SNY, Sunday was the first time the Yankees, Mets, Jets, and (football) Giants all won on the same day since Sept. 27th, 2009. They all play on the same day what, maybe 4-5 times a year? But still, 13 years is a long time. I'll take a sports thing happening for the first time since 2009 as a good omen. Here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon since it is yet another off-day.

1. Weekend thoughts. The penultimate homestand is upon us. The Yankees have two games with the Pirates and four games with the Red Sox this week. Anything short of 4-2 would qualify as a letdown, in my book. Gotta beat up on bad teams this time of year. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

The AL East race

The Yankees are determined to make winning the AL East as difficult as possible. They blew a 5-0 lead Friday because their prized deadline addition had another poor start, then they had to overcome an early 3-0 deficit in Sunday’s win (and even then the tying run came to the plate after taking a 12-6 lead into the ninth). Nothing is gonna be easy, huh?

The Orioles did the Yankees a solid and came back against Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano on Sunday, so the magic number to clinch the AL East is down to 11. The earliest the Yankees can clinch the division is Sunday. Decent chance they’ll go to Toronto next week and be able to clinch the AL East with a win over the second place team. That would be fun.

The magic number to clinch a postseason berth is only five and the Yankees can do that as soon as Wednesday. Would be nice to get that wrapped up soon, though the O’s need to cooperate to clinch that quickly. The magic number to clinch a better record than the AL Central winner, and thus ensure the AL East title equals a Wild Card Series bye, is seven. Could be a busy week on the clincher front.

On the flip side, you can forget about the Yankees finishing with the league’s best record, locking in home field advantage through the ALCS. The tragic number there is eight. Yet again, the road to the World Series will go through Houston. Maybe some other team will beat the Astros in the ALDS. Would be nice. Anyway, that was not a great weekend in Milwaukee, but like most things with the Yankees these days, it could’ve been worse.

Judge vs. History update

It is Sept. 19th and Aaron Judge is hitting .316/.419/.701 (210 wRC+). I couldn't hit that in MLB The Show. That’s what a batting line is supposed to look like after a big homestand against the Royals and Tigers in April. It is somehow Judge’s line through 146 (!) team games. The MLB average this season is a .708 OPS. Judge has a .701 slugging percentage. He is extraordinary.

“I tune it out,” Judge told Bryan Hoch about all the attention. “I try to stay off all of that stuff as much as I can. If you have a bad game, they’re going to say something. You have a good game, they’re going to say something. I just focus on what I’ve got to do here, focus on helping this team. The opinions of my teammates and coaches, that’s what matters to me.”

Following Sunday’s two-homer game and a 7-for-12 (.583) weekend, Judge is right behind Luis Arraez in the American League batting race and thus very close to leading all three Triple Crown categories (he has a huge lead in home runs and a sizable lead in RBI). Here’s the batting race entering Monday:

1. Luis Arraez: .31673
2. Xander Bogaerts: .31641
3. Aaron Judge: .31619
4. Jose Abreu: .30880
5. Nate Lowe: .30784

Abreu and Lowe (and Yordan Alvarez at .30445) are within striking distance, but at this point, the batting title will likely go to whichever one of Arraez, Bogaerts, and Judge has the best final two weeks. They’re in a virtual tie – the difference between Arraez and Judge is one hit every 1,851 at-bats – so that’s really all there is to it. Have the best two weeks, win the batting title*.

* I love that Judge is socking all these dingers while hitting .316 just to shut up all the “he strikes out too much” people. You know they’re out there and mad as hell they can’t say anything. Greatness is fun. Greatness that shuts haters up is even better. Also, ZiPS gives Judge a 24.8% chance to win the batting title, second to Arraez at 58.8%. Essentially a one-in-four chance to win the Triple Crown. Amazing.

The two home runs Sunday were Nos. 58 and 59 on the season. Only Roger Maris (61 in 1961) and Babe Ruth (60 in 1927) have hit more in AL history (Judge now holds the AL’s single-season record for homers by a righty) and this is a top nine homer season in baseball history. I want to slice and dice the MLB home run leaderboard again because it’s fun:

1. Aaron Judge: 59
2. Aaron Judge vs. righties: 46
3. Aaron Judge if he decided to retire on July 30th: 40
4. Kyle Schwarber: 39
5. Yordan Alvarez: 37
…
12. Aaron Judge as a center fielder: 32
…
17. Aaron Judge on the road: 30
…
19. Aaron Judge at home: 29

So that’s six different versions of Judge among the top 20 home run hitters in the sport. He has 11 multi-homer games this year, tied with 1938 Hank Greenberg and 1998 Sammy Sosa for the most in a single season in history. Judge had five – five! – batted balls over 110 mph on Sunday. The Giants have four since the All-Star break. This guy is beyond locked in right now.

“It’s not too difficult if your main focus and your main objective is to go out there and win a game,” Judge told Hoch about chasing Maris and a Triple Crown. “The numbers, they’re just numbers. I’m focused on doing what I can to be a good teammate and help the team win. If that means hitting a homer, it means hitting a homer, but it’s never been my focus.”

When Maris hit his 61st home run in 1961, it was controversial because it was the first year of the 162-game schedule. Ruth hit his 60 homers with a 154-game schedule in 1927 and Maris only had 58 homers through 154 team games in 1961 (he hit No. 61 in Game 162). It was so controversial MLB itself didn't officially recognize Maris as the single-season home run king until 1991. It was a huge deal at the time.

Judge is on pace for 65 home runs and he has a chance to break Maris’ record well before the Yankees play their 154th game next Tuesday in Toronto. And think about it, he’s doing it while facing 3-4 different pitchers a night (Judge has faced 242 different pitchers this year and Maris faced 101 in 1961) with optimized matchups and all that. The case can be made no player has ever had a more challenging path to 60 homers, yet Judge is still doing it.

Ben Clemens ran his simulations again and, thanks to Sunday’s two-homer effort, Judge is now most likely to hit his 61st home run during the upcoming homestand, and his 62nd homer in Toronto next week*. But really, it could happen any night now. Judge has never had a three-homer game but there’s no reason he can’t do it (he had a shot at a three-homer game Sunday and settled for a bullet double in the ninth inning). There’s a chance at history every game now.

* The simulations say there’s a 0.8% chance Judge hits 73 homers to tie Barry Bonds’ MLB single-season record. 0.8% is a long shot but it ain’t 0%.

Triple Crown or no Triple Crown, home run record or no home run record, we are witnessing an all-time great season and one of the most dominant offensive seasons in history. Judge is up to a 213 OPS+, an unfathomable number only seven others have reached in a full, uninterrupted season. I am out of words to describe this. The best season by a Yankee many of us will ever see.

“It should be really special,” Boone told Hoch about the atmosphere at Yankee Stadium this week. “Obviously, we’re in a pennant chase and Judge is sitting where he is. There’s going to be added buzz every time he comes up. I experienced that in the NL Central playing against Sammy (Sosa) and (Mark) McGwire in '98. Every time, it’s an event.”

The Closer Problem

Not a good time to have a closer problem, guys. Before going on the injured list Clay Holmes couldn’t locate and was walking and hitting a bunch of batters. Now he’s giving up extra-base hits too. Holmes has allowed five extra-base hits (all doubles) in his last nine innings and all five were squared up. He allowed five extra-base hits (four doubles and a homer) in his previous 51 innings. To put it another way:

Some of the pitch selection over the weekend was questionable (Holmes kept getting beat on his slider and I dunno man, maybe stick with the 100 mph sinker?) but, whatever the reason, Holmes is giving up hard contact and that’s a big problem. Walks and hit batsmen are bad too, but hard contact is scary. A dude with Holmes’ sinker should not be getting hit like this.

“I think he’s in a good spot throwing it well,” Boone told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) about Holmes following Friday’s loss, expecting you not to believe what you can see with your own eyes. “I think he’s pitched really well. (Friday) was a struggle. Other than that, he’s been really good.”

Messy weekend aside, I'm confident the Yankees will get the bullpen figured out because they always get the bullpen figured out. It’s the one thing they’re reliably excellent at. That said, Holmes is struggling badly and continuing to run him out there in high leverage spots isn’t a great idea. It’s okay to bump him down the pecking order and let others handle those important spots for a little bit. The demotion doesn’t have to be permanent.

The best closer option at this point is I guess Lou Trivino? He’s closed in the past (with some good Athletics teams too, not just this year’s bad on purpose version) and Trivino in the ninth frees up Jonathan Loaisiga and Wandy Peralta for fireman work. Scott Effross is coming back this week too. Then again, he gave up a homer and two doubles in his rehab game Sunday, so maybe don’t throw Effross into tight situations right away.

Assuming they hang on to win the AL East, the Yankees have three weeks and one day to get Holmes straightened out before the ALDS. The master plan is shoving hard to barrel up relievers down the other team's throat in October. Holmes is not just part of that plan, he’s the centerpiece in the late innings. He’s not that guy now and hasn’t been for a while. It’s worrisome, but I think (hope) it’s fixable. It’s just a matter of actually getting it fixed.

Where did the walks go?

Offensively, the Yankees have a 10.0% walk rate, the highest in baseball. That overall season number hides a lack of walks lately, however. Consider the walk rates:

• Yankees since Aug. 1st: 9.0%
• Aaron Judge since Aug. 1st: 20.5%
• All other Yankees since Aug. 1st: 7.5%

Judge has drawn 26.5% of the Yankees’ walks while taking only 11.6% of their plate appearances since Aug. 1st, and that 7.5% walk rate would rank 15th among the 30 teams. The Yankees other than Judge just aren’t walking as much as they did earlier this season (non-Judge Yankees had a 10.1% walk rate prior to Aug. 1st).

The question in the subhead is rhetorical because we know where the walks went, right? DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton have mostly been hurt and ineffective the last few weeks. Joey Gallo (14.7% walks as a Yankee) was traded and Matt Carpenter (12.3% walks) got hurt. Aaron Hicks hasn’t hit and has been benched for long stretches. That’s where the walks went.

Walks are not the backbone of a strong offense. They’re a byproduct of good at-bats and another way of avoiding outs. A good fallback plan when you don’t get something to hit, and for too much of the last few weeks the Yankees other than Judge haven’t hit. They haven’t walked much either, further sapping the offense. In the grand scheme of the offense, fewer walks is small beans. It’s still something that is suddenly lacking and can be improved.

Miscellany

Gerrit Cole has come up small too many times the last few weeks. He allowed four runs in five innings Sunday and has allowed at least four runs three times in his last six starts and six times in his last 11 starts (including three times after a loss, when you want your ace to put an end to the losing). That ain’t gonna fly, my dude. The Yankees have needed Cole to be a stopper several times during this three-month fade and he hasn’t done it enough. I’m not commenting on Cole’s season as a whole, his contract, or his status among the game’s top pitchers. I’m just saying a 4.04 ERA in his last 11 starts straight up isn’t good enough. The Yankees need Cole to be better and no one knows it more than him … So much for Stanton getting on track during the Rays series last week. He is 2-for-22 (.091) with 12 strikeouts since, and the problem isn’t so much that he’s chasing out of the zone. He’s swinging through pitches in the zone: 36.9% whiffs per swing in the zone in September, the worst month of his career by a lot (his 2018-21 average was 23.5% whiffs per swing in the zone). Stanton is hitting .209/.294/.447 (110 wRC+) this year and .155/.262/.391 (87 wRC+) in over 200 plate appearances since returning from his first injured list stint in early June. Similar to Cole, that just isn’t good enough. Not even close. I look forward to the Cole and Stanton redemption arcs in the postseason (pretty please?) … Oswaldo Cabrera found himself at first base over the weekend and the Yankees have begun working him out in left field too. He is 9-for-26 (.346) with two doubles, two homers, and five walks in his last seven games. It would be extremely cool if this is Cabrera’s coming of age stretch and he develops into a multi-position guy who can actually hit. For now, I’ll be happy if Cabrera can handle left field. The Yankees have no good options there at the moment … I am 2-for-2 with my roster move predictions. Ryan Weber was designated for assignment to make room for Aroldis Chapman and Estevan Florial was sent down to make room for Rizzo. Up next is Harrison Bader’s return (Tuesday). Gotta think Tim Locastro goes down for him … And finally, I really enjoyed Jeff Nelson in the YES Network booth this past weekend. He had good chemistry with Michael Kay and was calm and confident, and explained things well. Also, he seems to know he doesn’t always have to say something. Lots of broadcasters talk too much. Sneaky good sense of humor too. I’d be cool with Nelson in the booth more regularly.

2. Montas injured. The pitcher who had a shoulder injury in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline has another shoulder injury. Following that awful start Friday, Frankie Montas reported discomfort in his shoulder and went for an MRI. The Yankees are waiting until the team doctors look over the results before deciding whether to put him on the injured list.

“I think it could have had something to do with (Friday’s performance), but as far as I know, he’s been good and healthy into that. Even (Friday) night, according to him, it was fairly minor,” Aaron Boone told Steve Megargee about Montas’ injury. “Obviously we knew he was coming off an injury that only cost him 17 days (with the Athletics). But yeah, everything would have suggested that he was healthy (at the time of the trade).”

Montas had a velocity dip in the second inning Friday night and his pace slowed to a crawl (even slower than usual), telltale signs he didn’t feel right. He said the discomfort doesn't feel the same as the injury that hampered him (but never sent him to the injured list) earlier this season with the A’s. He also said he woke up Saturday feeling normal, so who knows.

“When I woke up, I thought it was gonna be worse, but it was just normal soreness from pitching,” Montas told Kristie Ackert on Saturday. “So I felt like it’s nothing crazy.”

A few things about this. One, Montas has been really bad as a Yankee (28 runs in 39.2 innings) and now we have to hope this shoulder issue explains his performance. I hate doing that but injuries do explain poor performance on occasion, if not often. Montas has had three good starts as a Yankee (and that’s being generous) and only one great start, and in that one great start he went only five innings.

The Yankees traded for Montas with the idea he would be a) the No. 2 starter in the postseason, and b) an upgrade over Jordan Montgomery through next year, when both become free agents. The jury is still out on (b), though the early returns are awful. It’s possible Montas will outpitch Montgomery in 2023, sure, but that series of moves couldn’t look worse right now.

As for (a), how could the Yankees start Montas in the postseason at this point? Even if this new shoulder issue is truly minor, he’s got at most three starts remaining this season, and is that enough to convince everyone he’s postseason trustworthy? Maybe it’s enough to convince the Yankees (and they’re the only ones that matter), but I'm not sure three starts could convince me.

We’ll see where things sit as we get closer to the postseason. Right now, I’d go with Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino in Games 1-3 in whatever order, then either Jameson Taillon on a short leash or a full-fledged bullpen game in Game 4. Not exactly what I was envisioning when the starters went 6-7 innings each night and the rotation was the best in baseball earlier this year.

Two, Boone hinted at a possible injured list stint and that would take Montas out of action until at least next Saturday (even after being backdated). At that point the Yankees would have five days (six games) remaining in the season. Do you just bring Montas back as a reliever at that point? Or give him that one last regular season start before the postseason? I have no idea.

“I don’t know. It’s possible. That’s speculating. We’re waiting for Dr. Ahmad to weigh in on this,” Boone told Randy Miller about a possible injured list stint. “I don’t know. We’ll see. I just don’t want to speculate on it anymore until we have a reading from the doc and he gets his hands on it.”

I hate playing short-handed but I get why the Yankees would do it with Montas*. Lose him for 15 days and his regular season is close to over. If this is only a “skip a start” situation, they could rearrange the rotation in such a way that gets him two (maybe even three) starts before the end of the season. As poorly as he’s pitched as a Yankee, Montas has the talent to be a difference-maker and it’s worth trying to unlock that guy. He has to be on the mound to do it, not on the injured list.

* It’s also much easier to play short-handed with a banged up starting pitcher, who is idle four out every five days anyway, than with a starting position player. Rosters are expanded (only one extra pitcher spot, but expanded) and Domingo German can easily slot into the rotation. Playing short-handed is never ideal, but it’s not the end of the world in this situation.

And three, my goodness, what a dud of a trade deadline. Montas has stunk and is now hurt. Andrew Benintendi was good more than great and now he’s hurt. Scott Effross barely pitched before getting hurt. Harrison Bader still hasn’t played. Lou Trivino has been the best deadline addition by no small margin and he’s thrown 16 innings as a Yankee. An absolute stinker of a deadline.

We evaluate moves using the information available at the time they were made, and everything the Yankees did at the deadline was understandable (even Bader). In the end, the moves just aren’t working out. The trades have meaningfully subtracted from the team’s World Series odds. The rotation is in worse shape, the outfield is no better than it was before, and relievers will only move the needle so much. Bader needs to come back and mash – and I mean mash – for the Yankees to have any shot at being better on Oct. 1st than they were on Aug. 1st.

The Benintendi injury is unfortunate. That’s just bad luck. That doesn’t really apply to the Montas injury though because a guy having shoulder trouble in September after having shoulder trouble in July is not the most surprising thing in the world. What did the Yankees get wrong with Joey Gallo*? What did they get wrong with Josh Donaldson? There have been way too many moves the last 18 months or so that have worked out poorly and taken wins away.

* Gallo started well with the Dodgers but his numbers with Los Angeles (.179/.277/.409 and 95 wRC+) are inching closer to his numbers with the Yankees (.159/.282/.339 and 82 wRC+). I think this is a case of a guy who operates with razor thin margins falling apart more than a “he can’t handle New York” thing. You need so much to go right to contribute positively at the plate when you make that little contact and have that many exploitable holes in your swing.

Montas has pitched poorly as a Yankee and now he’s hurt, and the best case scenario is the injury explains the poor performance, and he pitches better once he’s healthy. Aside from a catastrophic injury, that’s about as bad as it gets for a big deadline pickup. How the Yankees could trust Montas in a postseason setting this year, I do not know. Maybe he'll shock us all in October.

3. Arizona Fall League rosters. MLB announced the 2022 Arizona Fall League rosters last week and among the headliners is OF Jasson Dominguez. He’ll be the fourth youngest player in the league. This will be a long, full season for Dominguez. He’ll finish the year with something like 150 games played. That’s a ton for a 19-year-old minor leaguer.

“(The Yankees) have their plan and they know what they’re doing,” Dominguez said after the Futures Game. “One of my main goals is to stay healthy, to keep working, and to keep giving forth my best focus so that the results keep coming."

Yankees prospects will team up with Athletics, Cubs, Marlins, and Rays prospects on the Mesa Solar Sox this fall. Statcast data from Mesa’s ballpark (the A’s Spring Training park) is not made public, so we’re out of luck there. All of MLB’s new rules will be in effect though (pitch clock, ban on shifts, larger bases, etc.). Here are the full AzFL rosters.

In addition to Dominguez, the Yankees are also sending 1B TJ Rumfield to the AzFL. I had those two on my list of AzFL candidates. I refer you to that for information on Rumfield, and here’s what I wrote about Dominguez’s season last week. Let’s break down the other players the Yankees are sending to the AzFL, shall we?

RHP Nelson Alvarez

2022 stats: 2.85 ERA (3.86 FIP), 28.9 K%, 14.2 BB%, 50.8 GB% in 53.2 IP (Hi-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2022

The Yankees selected Alvarez with their 13th round pick in 2019 and I had him as a Not Top 30 Prospect going into 2021. He’s an upper-90s guy with a slider that is sometimes a wipeout pitch, though Alvarez has made little to no progress with his control, walking 15.1% of the batters he’s faced the last two years (all in High-A). It’s a classic big bullpen arm/lottery ticket profile.

The AzFL pitching pool is usually pretty diluted because so many young pitchers are up against their workload limits, but the fact Alvarez was healthy most of the year and is still going to AzFL suggests the Yankees want to see more of him. He’s a long shot Rule 5 Draft target as a High-A reliever with control issues, so the Yankees don’t have to sweat that, but there’s still a chance Alvarez can be a guy down the road. The AzFL gives him more time to prove it.

RHP Yorlin Calderon

2022 stats: 3.88 ERA (4.07 FIP), 30.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 50.7 GB% in 58 IP (Rk/Lo-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2022

A few months ago Calderon made a name for himself when he threw a seven-inning no-hitter in his first career full season league start. That was only a spot start – throw a no-hitter and get sent back to rookie ball? rough – and Calderon turned only 21 last month, so he’s a low minors kid very early in his career. Players like this never saw the AzFL in the past. MLB opened up the eligibility rules a few years ago and now more low minors kids get the assignment.

Calderon is a sleeper more than a bona fide prospect. He’s similar to Miguel Castro as a low-ish arm slot sinker/slider guy (video), though Calderon doesn’t push 98-99 mph like Castro (Statcast says the sinker averaged 90.5 mph during his time with Tampa this year). He did rank 25th in the minors with a 24.0% swinging strike rate this season though (min. 50 innings, which yields a pool of 1,299 players). Striking out 30.4% of batters faced will get my attention, sure.

The career numbers are ugly (81 runs in 104.2 innings) but Calderon has talent and he’s still playing catch-up after losing a year to the pandemic. The Yankees are really challenging him with the AzFL assignment. Ace this and build on it next season, and Calderon will begin to factor into prospect lists (and possibly also trade discussions).

IF Tyler Hardman

2022 stats: .262/.329/.479 (116 wRC+), 22 HR, 30.4 K%, 8.9 BB% in 447 PA (Hi-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2024

I’ve had Hardman, last year’s fifth round pick, on my list of prospects to write about the last few weeks, and this gives me a chance to do it. The Yankees promoted him to Double-A at the same time as Dominguez last week and he’s 1-for-16 with six strikeouts through four games with Somerset. Hardman’s name is fitting because he hits the ball hard, man. Exit velocities up to 110 mph as a pro.

What has my attention is the defense. Hardman was primarily a first baseman in college but he played some third base in the Cape Cod League, and the Yankees have used him primarily at the hot corner as well (101 games at third and 12 at first this year). Baseball America (subs. req’d) published their best tools survey a few weeks ago and South Atlantic League managers voted Hardman the best defensive third baseman in the league. Huh.

Now, being voted the best defensive third baseman in a 12-team league doesn’t mean Hardman is a future Gold Glover or anything. It could’ve been a down year for hot corner prospects in the Sally League for all we know. Generally speaking though, if managers notice your glovework, it’s a good thing. As a first baseman, Hardman was kinda eh. A good fielding third baseman? Hey, now we’re talking.

Of course, Hardman was a four-year starter at Oklahoma and he ran a 30.4% strikeout rate as a 23-year-old in High-A, which ain’t good (the league strikeout rate was 25.2%). The exit velocity and third base defense won’t matter unless Hardman makes more contact (and kinda soon). But, if he does figure out how to make more contact, the power and glove suggest there could be something here. A guy like this should wreck the AzFL even with those strikeout concerns.

RHP Shaine McNeely

2022 stats: 5.28 ERA (2.92 FIP), 36.2 K%, 5.8 BB%, 46.2 GB% in 15.1 IP (Rk/Lo-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2022

I think McNeely is a Tommy John surgery guy but I’m not 100% sure. He pitched on Opening Day last season, was placed on the 60-day injured list a few days later, and didn’t return until this July. The timetable fits Tommy John surgery rehab, but again, I don’t know for sure. Either way, McNeely missed just about all of 2021 and most of 2022 with an injury.

The 2019 16th round pick had fantastic strikeout and walk numbers in limited action this year and the Yankees are sending McNeely to the AzFL to make up for lost innings. Statcast had him at 91-95 mph with Low-A Tampa this year and the spin on his slider was huge. Averaged over 2,600 rpm and topped out around 3,000 rpm. Spin a slider like that and you’re gonna strike out some A-ballers, yeah.

Between injuries and the pandemic, McNeely has thrown only 32 innings since being drafted in 2019. He’s a reliever, has been one since college, and the Yankees just want to get the kid on the mound and see what they have. That’s why he’s going to the AzFL.

RHP Leam Mendez

2022 stats: 4.30 ERA (3.97 FIP), 29.8 K%, 8.1 BB%, 24.6 GB% in 29.1 IP (Rk/Lo-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2025

Mendez defected from Cuba in 2018 and the Yankees signed him this past February (unknown bonus) after seeing him in a sandlot game in the Dominican Republic. It wasn’t an official tryout or showcase. Just some guys playing ball. The Yankees got Mendez with their nutrition people and training staff, and he came out throwing 93-95 mph in his pro debut this year. Here’s video.

Like most Cuban pitchers, Mendez is a kitchen sink guy. He throws three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter), a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. The pitch data from his limited time with the Tarpons is unremarkable, but the kid has only been pitching professionally for seven months. Give it time and the Yankees may coach him up. Mendez turns 23 in January and hasn’t pitched much in competitive games the last few years. The AzFL will give him that opportunity.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Last week the Mets announced Sandy Alderson is stepping down as team president and moving into semi-retirement as a special advisor. He’ll assist with the search for his replacement. The Mets have had a hard time filling out their front office the last two years for several reasons (denied permission to interview candidates under contract with other teams, the belief owner Steve Cohen is too demanding, etc.) but I am certain they’ll give Brian Cashman a call, and he’ll use them as leverage in contract talks with the Yankees. The Yankees are a postseason lock and I don’t think another early exit will be the end of Cashman. I wrote about the future of the front office in January and I think it holds up well. I’ll leave it at that … John Sterling will be around for Aaron Judge’s various chases. The 84-year-old Sterling has skipped select road series the last few weeks, but Andrew Marchand says he’s revised his schedule and will do every game from here on out. Ryan Ruocco was slated to fill in for Sterling in Toronto next week, but he offered to step aside to let Sterling do his thing. Pretty cool. Nearly every significant Yankees moment of my lifetime has Sterling on the call. Would be kinda weird to hear someone else call No. 62, you know? … And finally, Eno Sarris (subs. req’d) wrote about the rise (the re-rise, really) in spin rates. They aren’t all the way back to where they were prior to the sticky stuff crackdown but they’re close, and the general belief is pitchers have found (or developed?) a new substance that is clear and can be easily wiped away before the between-innings hand check. I have no idea how MLB can fix this (Eno mentions putting a fifth umpire behind the mound who can spot check the pitcher whenever he wants) but spin rates are back up again. It felt like only a matter of time until pitchers found a way around the crackdown and it sure looks like they have.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)