September 15th, 2022: AL East, Judge, Cole, Injured Players, Dominguez, RailRiders, Mailbag

The Yankees have won four straight, eight of their last 10, and 14 of their last 22. I’m not going to say they’re capital-B Back (they’re too injured for that) but at least they’re piling up wins again so we can all breathe easy for a bit. Things were dicey at this time last week. Anyway, here is Friday morning’s post Thursday afternoon since it’s another off-day.

1. Weekday thoughts. I’m a big fan of the Red Sox kicking the ball around. I’m also a big fan of Nestor Cortes making up deliveries on the fly to strike out Rafael Devers (video). “As soon as I lifted up my leg, all hell broke loose. It was a well-executed pitch and I was able to get him to swing. To be honest, I almost fell over,” Cortes told Dan Martin after Wednesday’s game. Nestor’s FAR (fun above replacement) is through the roof. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games as we prepare for the Yankees to play five straight games against NL Central teams in September for some reason.

The AL East race

The last few days were close to perfect with regard to the division race. It would have been better if the Blue Jays and Rays split their four games (Toronto won three of four), but they’re playing a fifth game Thursday, and if Tampa wins that, it works just as well. The Yankees took care of business in Boston and the magic number to clinch the AL East has been whittled down to 14. The six-game lead is the largest since Aug. 31st.

The magic number to clinch a postseason spot is eight. The earliest that can happen is Tuesday because of all these off-days. Also, the magic number to clinch a better record than the AL Central winner is 10. Do that and it guarantees the AL East title secures a Wild Card Series bye. Still some work to do, and hopefully the Yankees wrap it all up within the next 7-10 days.

“We’re getting better, getting healthier, and more help is on the way,” Aaron Boone told Martin following Wednesday’s win. “We know what time of year it is and we know we’ve got to put our best foot forward. So it’s been good to see guys really come together as we’re still piecing it together.”

Judge vs. History update

Aaron Judge hit zero homers against the Rays last weekend and made up for it with two game-tying solo shots Tuesday (video). He’s up to 57 home runs with 19 games remaining. This is now a top seven home run season in American League history:

1. Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees: 61
2. Babe Ruth, 1927 Yankees: 60
3. Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees: 59
4. Jimmie Foxx, 1932 Athletics: 58
5. Hank Greenberg, 1938 Tigers: 58
6. Alex Rodriguez, 2002 Rangers: 57
7. Aaron Judge, 2022 Yankees: 57 and counting

Following those two home runs Tuesday, Judge has 57 and Kyle Schwarber has 37. ESPN says it’s the first time a player has led the home run race by at least 20 on any calendar day in any season since the final day of the 1928 season, when Ruth had 54 and several others tied for second with 31. That is incredible. We may never see this again in our lifetimes.

Judge has also climbed into third place in the batting race. He’s behind Luis Arraez (.320) and Xander Bogaerts (.317), and narrowly ahead of Jose Abreu (.30994 vs. .30983). Making up 10 points in batting average in 19 games won’t be easy, but 19 games ago Judge was hitting .296, so it can be done. A Triple Crown and the AL home run record would be an all-time great season (best free agent walk year ever?).

And really, it already is an all-time great season. Judge’s 208 OPS+ is 29th best in the Modern Era (since 1900) and 26th best if you remove seasons shortened by work stoppages or the pandemic. Here is the full list of AL players with a 208 OPS+ or better in a full, uninterrupted season:

• Babe Ruth: 8 times
• Ted Williams: 4 times
• Mickey Mantle: 2 times
• Ty Cobb: 1 time
• Lou Gehrig: 1 time

There’s 19 games to play and we’ll see where Judge finishes, but we’re currently watching the greatest offensive season by an AL player since Mantle. Judge should join the +10 WAR club this year. Only Mike Trout (twice) and Mookie Betts have had +10 WAR seasons since Barry Bonds. No Yankee has done it since Mantle (+10.4 WAR in 1961).

The YES Network put this graphic up Wednesday and it sells Judge short. In addition to all this ...

... he also leads baseball in win probability added (+7.1) and championship probability added (+3.2), and, according to Statcast, the two best hitters in baseball are Judge vs. fastballs (+26 runs) and Judge vs. sliders (+25 runs). He’s also hitting .368/.526/.768 (238 wRC+) with runners in scoring position, if you care about such things.

“If you’re checking the numbers, you’re going to get caught,” Judge told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. “I just keep trying to do what I can do. The numbers will take care of themselves. If I have a good plan, a good approach, do what I need to do in the box, all that other stuff will show up.”

Ben Clemens reran his simulations and Judge is still most likely to hit his 61st (and 62nd!) home run during the Toronto series (Sept. 26th to 28th), though the odds he does it at home against the Red Sox next weekend are creeping up. Also, Boone hinted at giving Judge a day off at some point before the end of the season? That would be A Decision.

“I hope (we can give him a day) at some point. It means we’re in a good position. It’s been a while now,” Boone told Martin. “(All the off-days are) helpful. The handful of off days he got over the course of the year have served him well.”

I’m pretty sure Yankee Stadium would burn to the ground if 54,000 people show up and Judge isn’t in the lineup. After Monday, the Yankees only have one off-day remaining (Thursday, Sept. 29th), and they have a doubleheader on the second to last day of the season. After Monday’s off-day, the Yankees close out the regular season with 16 games in 16 days.

Winning the World Series is the priority – Judge himself would tell you that – and making sure everyone is fresh and healthy heading into October is important. I get it, but I just don’t see how you can sit Judge now. If the Yankees do give him a day off, it has to be on the road (sorry, road fans), and it has to be after he hits No. 62. I feel like even that is pushing it. I don’t envy Boone. I get wanting to rest Judge, but Boone will get crushed if he does it.

(By the way, the Yankees are on Apple TV next Friday. Judge breaking Maris' record that night with a fraction of the viewership of a regular game would be major egg on MLB's face. They won't care as long as the checks clear though.)

Cole and the upcoming pitching schedule

Gerrit Cole’s Fenway Park issues sure are annoying. Since joining the Yankees he has a 6.90 ERA (3.60 HR/9) in Boston and a 2.96 ERA (1.26 HR/9) everywhere else, postseason included. One of the three homers Tuesday was a Pesky Pole shot, though the Yankees have no leg to stand on when it comes to cheap homers. At least Cole won’t have to visit Fenway this October.

“Not sure,” Cole told Greg Joyce when asked about his struggles in Boston following Tuesday’s game. “Just a high level of execution on their part on a couple good pitches, and a good piece of hitting by Bogaerts tonight (on the Pesky Pole homer) specifically.”

Anyway, the Yankees are using all these off-days to skip Domingo German’s rotation spot (he was available out of the bullpen Wednesday), and Cole will start the series finale in Milwaukee on normal rest Sunday. That’s enough to buy him an extra start before the end of the regular season (Cole now lines up to start Game 162), which accomplishes two things:

• In the event the AL East race (or worse, the Wild Card race) goes down to the wire, Cole will now be available to start the season finale on normal rest.
• It lines Cole up to start Game 1 of the ALDS with an extra day of rest. Clinch a Wild Card Series bye and there’s a five-day wait until the postseason begins.

It’s easier to find a way to give Cole extra rest later than it is to squeeze in an extra start, so the Yankees used these off-days to get him lined up. Also, that five-day wait between the end of the regular season and start of the ALDS means you want Cole starting Game 162, otherwise he’ll go something like 8-10 days between starts. Extra rest is good, but that’s a little too much.

On a lower stakes note, the extra start also gives Cole a better chance to break the franchise’s single-season strikeout record. Cole is up to an MLB-leading 228 strikeouts. He is 20 behind Ron Guidry’s record (248 in 1978) with four starts remaining. It is doable and I hope he does it. More importantly though, the Yankees used all these off-days to get the rotation sorted out for the rest of the regular season and the early part of the postseason. It’s that time of year, folks.

Miscellany

How about Wandy Peralta? My man faced Devers with the tying run on second, threw a first pitch middle-middle fastball by him (video), then later struck him out to end the game with a surprise slider. It was the first slider he threw in the seven-pitch at-bat. Wandy brought his slider out of retirement a few weeks ago and that was a gutsy spot for it. He’s fearless. Turning Mike Tauchman (currently hitting .280/.351/.419 with the Hanwha Eagles in Korea) into a lefty who shuts down star hitters in big spots was a heck of a move … That felt like a postseason roster spot audition for Clarke Schmidt on Wednesday. He entered the sixth inning with a runner on base to face the 3-4-5 hitters and struck them out on 11 pitches (video). Then he tacked on a nine-pitch 1-2-3 seventh inning as well. If everyone gets healthy (a big IF), the Yankees will have more pitchers than postseason roster spots, but it’s not difficult to see how Schmidt could play a role in October … Is there something to Estevan Florial and not Tim Locastro pinch-running for Giancarlo Stanton the other night? Locastro’s one of the fastest players in baseball and his value to a contender is tied up almost exclusively in pinch-running. Maybe the Yankees are trying to see whether Florial can be the postseason pinch-runner because he’s a better defender than Locastro and could contribute more overall? Then again, he pinch-ran at first base with the bases loaded. It wasn’t a traditional “pinch-run and steal a base” situation. Also, Locastro pinch-ran for Stanton on Wednesday (at second base with one out). The chances I’m reading too much into this are incredibly high … And finally, Oswald Peraza has been glued to the bench since Josh Donaldson returned, and at this point he’s probably better off returning to Triple-A so he can actually play (he has 25 plate appearances in the last 15 days). Tyler Wade is on the road trip taxi squad. Sending Peraza down and activating Wade (the Yankees have an open 40-man roster spot after designating Ronald Guzman for assignment) until Harrison Bader or Anthony Rizzo or whoever returns seems easy enough. No one cares if Wade sits on the bench day after day as the 28th man. I’d rather Peraza not do that though. Shrug.

2. Returning players and making room on the roster. In the coming days the Yankees will begin to welcome their injured players back into the fold. It sounds like Aroldis Chapman is first up. He’s made two rehab appearances with Double-A Somerset, striking out five of the nine batters he’s faced. Aaron Boone said Chapman will likely rejoin the Yankees on Friday.

“We’ll see,” Boone told Dan Martin when asked about Chapman’s role. “Physically, we know it’s still there.”

Beyond Chapman there’s also Harrison Bader, Zack Britton, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Luis Severino, and a few others on the mend. Most of these guys have said they hope to return during the homestand next week, which would be swell. That also creates a question: how do the Yankees fit everyone on the roster? There’s only 28 roster spots in September now.

With that mind, let’s try to figure out who stays and who goes when these injured players begin to make their way back onto the roster. I’m going to use MLB.com’s estimated return dates so this is laid out in something resembling chronological order. Sound good? Let’s get to it.

Sept. 16: Aroldis Chapman (leg infection)

Like it or not, the Yankees are committed to Chapman, and seem intent on giving him a chance to prove his worth before the postseason. For all we know his name may be written in ink on the postseason roster. I’d like to think Chapman has to earn his spot after the season he’s had, but I can’t say that for sure. I guess we’ll find out.

Anyway, this one seems straightforward: Ryan Weber will be designated for assignment to clear a roster spot for Chapman. I suppose the Yankees could demote Greg Weissert or even Clarke Schmidt, but eh. Weber seems very onboard with this release/re-sign arrangement given how many times it’s happened this year (three), and he’s perpetually the last guy in the bullpen. With an off-day Thursday and another coming Monday, a long reliever is a low priority. So long, Ryan.

Sept. 18-21: Anthony Rizzo (back)

Ronald Guzman quickly played his way out of the lineup and Marwin Gonzalez is 3-for-25 (.120) with a homer and three walks as the fill-in first baseman the last few days. It, uh, could be worse? The Yankees badly need Rizzo’s lefty power to balance the lineup and he has been working out the last few days. Boone suggested Rizzo could return as soon as Sunday.

“I think Sunday is a possibility, but we’re going to listen to his body and listen to him, and see where we think we are as the weekend unfolds,” Boone told Brendan Kuty earlier this week. Rizzo will face Scott Effross (more on him in a bit) in live batting practice Friday, and if that goes well, we may see him Sunday*. I see three possibilities to clear a spot for Rizzo:

• Send down Oswaldo Peraza. The kid’s not playing anyway.
• Send down Miguel Andujar. He’s been riding the shuttle all season.
• Send down Tim Locastro or Estevan Florial. How many extra outfielders do the Yankees need?

There is something to be said for being in the big leagues and around Major Leaguers, and sitting in on meetings and all that, but we’re at the point where Peraza would be best served going back to Triple-A so he can actually play. That’s the move I’d like to see the Yankees make.

I think the most likely outcome is Florial goes down. He hasn’t started any of the last five games and the Yankees would still have Locastro around as their pinch-runner/defensive replacement. Andujar is their best shot at getting some actual base hits out of the left field position, and the Yankees are still short on offense. I’m going to guess Florial is the move for Rizzo.

* Rizzo hasn’t played since Aug. 31st. Are the Yankees really gonna bring him back after one live batting practice session and zero rehab games? I look forward to Rizzo going 2-for-25 in his first week back.

Sept. 20: Harrison Bader (foot)

Bader is 3-for-10 with a home run (video) through three rehab games, and although he still has discomfort in his foot, he says there is no pain. Here’s what Bader told Greg Johnson about his injury:

“(It) developed into a bone edema because of the amount of stress I was putting on, I guess, the fascia down there in attempting to play through it. You experience a little setback but everything is healthy, everything feels good,” Bader said. “I am 100 percent ready to be a competitor and compete and be a winning player at the major league level for the Yankees.”

A few days ago Boone indicated the tentative plan calls for Bader to play in rehab games through this weekend, then rejoin the Yankees on the homestand. When he’s activated, I expect Andujar to go down. Either that or the Yankees come to their senses and send Peraza down rather than let him continue to stagnate on the bench. Andujar seems like the move to me.

Also, I should note Bader is on the 60-day injured list, though the Yankees have an open 40-man roster spot after designating Guzman, so that’s no problem. They’ll also open another spot when Weber is removed from the roster, whenever that happens.

Sept. 20: Scott Effross (shoulder)

As noted, Effross will face hitters in live batting practice Friday, and if that goes well, he could pitch in a minor league game Sunday. And if that goes well, Effross could return to the bullpen next week. The Yankees are currently at 14 pitchers and 14 position players, and assuming a position player goes down for Rizzo and not a pitcher, they’ll have to send down a pitcher for Effross too. (The Yankees briefly carried 15 position players and 13 pitchers earlier this month.)

Weissert is the obvious candidate here. He saw a few important situations during the homestand (remember when he gave up the game-losing homer to Carlos Correa?) but is the low man on the totem pole as the recent call up. It’s either Weissert, Schmidt, or Ron Marinaccio. I think Weissert goes down for Effross in a righty short reliever for righty short reliever move. It’s fine. Weissert's done enough to factor into the 2023 picture. We’ll see him again at some point.

Sept. 21: Luis Severino (lat)

The Yankees opted not to bring Severino back in Boston (he was eligible to come off the 60-day injured list Monday) and he will instead make one more rehab start Thursday night. That would put him on track to be available on normal rest Tuesday, the first day of the homestand. I gotta think that’s when Severino will return, kicking Domingo German to the bullpen full-time.

Assuming Weber and Weissert go down for Chapman and Effross, this is likely when Schmidt gets stuck going back to Triple-A. I wouldn’t like it – Schmidt’s a big leaguer and can help the Yankees win – and there’s no reason to keep him stretched out at this point, but I also have no idea what else they’re supposed to do. Send down Marinaccio? Maybe that’s it. He's put 13 guys on base in his last six innings. Lucas Luetge is too good in his role to get the axe.

I’m going to say Schmidt is sent down to make room for Severino, though sending Marinaccio down wouldn’t be crazy. I say that based on the available options, not based on who deserves to go down. Also, the Yankees will need a 40-man spot for Severino. That means this is the absolute latest Weber will stay on the roster. He’s gone when Severino returns no matter what.

Sept. 20-25: DJ LeMahieu (toe)

LeMahieu has been getting treatment on his toe and he was fitted for orthotic inserts, and he has been playing catch. He could hit this weekend in Milwaukee. LeMahieu told Marly Rivera the injury limited how much he could rotate his foot. “When you can't hit, can't be myself, I’m not doing anyone any favors by just being a body out there,” he told Rivera.

The Yankees have said basically nothing about LeMahieu’s timetable (LeMahieu said he hopes to be back during the homestand next week) and whenever he does return, I gotta think that is when Peraza goes down. Peraza’s not playing as it is and LeMahieu would bump him down the infield depth chart another notch. If not Peraza, then I guess whichever one of Andujar, Florial, or Locastro is still on the roster will go down when LeMahieu returns.

Possibly Sept.: Zack Britton

Earlier this week Boone acknowledged Britton may not return this season. Not too long ago everyone was excited to see what Britton could do in September. Now it’s not certain he’ll return. Britton has thrown 5.1 rehab innings thus far and has at least one more rehab game scheduled. He will not pitch back-to-back days at any point this year.

“I know he’s doing really well,” Boone told MLB.com. “I’ve not wanted to put that kind of pressure on the situation. We’ll just see how the next several outings go for him and see if he’s a realistic option.”

In the event Britton does return, it has to mean either Marinaccio or Schmidt goes down, right? Weber for Chapman, Weissert for Effross, Marinaccio or Schmidt for Severino, then whichever one of Marinaccio or Schmidt is still around for Britton. Britton’s return is not imminent and we’re very much in “worry about it when he’s ready to return” territory now.

(Britton’s 30-day rehab window expires next Thursday, though teams are allowed to request a second 30-day rehab period for Tommy John surgery guys. Britton doesn’t absolutely have to be activated next week. Also, Britton told Conor Foley he had traditional Tommy John surgery, not the suture tape procedure. Whatever man.)

Possibly Sept.: Miguel Castro (shoulder)

Castro started a rehab assignment earlier this week and while he’s a down the depth chart a bit, he’s a veteran and a possible bullpen option. You know how these things go. A few more injuries and suddenly we’re counting the days until Castro returns to help out the bullpen. You’d rather he be available and not needed than needed and not available.

Because his 30-day rehab window goes until the end of the regular season, the Yankees could conceivably keep Castro stashed on the injured list after the minor league season ends. If a need arises, they can activate him, and if not, I guess he would face hitters in simulated games to stay sharp. I’m not sure we’ll see Castro again this year, but the fact he’s pitching in rehab games suggests he will be an option at some point.

(Castro is on the 60-day injured list and will require a 40-man move to rejoin the active roster. The Yankees would really be up against it 40-man-wise should Bader, Britton, Castro, and Severino all make it back at some point.)

Possibly Sept.: Albert Abreu (elbow)

It seems unlikely Abreu will return this season. He is playing catch (he may have graduated to bullpen sessions but I’m not sure) but is running out of time to get into rehab games before the minor league season ends. I think Abreu is more likely to wind up on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for someone else (i.e. Britton or Castro) than return to the active MLB roster this year. We’ll see.

TBD: Andrew Benintendi (wrist) and Matt Carpenter (foot)

Benintendi is a little more than a week out from surgery and there’s no timetable for him to begin baseball activities. Carpenter is still in a walking boot and riding around on his scooter. He’ll have another x-ray to check on his progress next week. There is a real chance neither Benintendi nor Carpenter make it back before the end of the regular season. I’m not going to bother to guess about the roster moves now. We’ll worry about it when they’re nearing a return.

* * *

Within the next week or so Chapman, Effross, Rizzo, and Severino could all rejoin the Yankees. Maybe LeMahieu too. Britton, Castro, and a few others are further away. These are the moves we could see within the next 7-10 days:

• Weber designated for Chapman.
• Florial (or Peraza?) optioned for Rizzo.
• Weissert optioned for Effross.
• Marinaccio or Schmidt optioned for Severino.

These things are always subject to change based on setbacks and new injuries, plus the Yankees have a way of surprising us with roster moves, but those seem sensible enough. It’s too bad the old September call up rules are no more. I can’t remember the last time the Yankees would have benefited from a fully active 40-man roster in September as much as this year.

3. Dominguez moves to Double-A. High-A Hudson Valley’s season ended last weekend (they did not make the postseason) and Double-A Somerset has a few games remaining (and they’re going to the postseason), so 19-year-old wunderkind Jasson Dominguez moved up and joined the Patriots for the stretch run earlier this week. His Single-A season (full-size image):

(Dominguez is 0-for-10 through two Double-A games. I’m also compelled to note he went deep from both sides of the plate in his final High-A game for his first career multi-homer game.)

Context is important. The average in Dominguez's two Single-A leagues is a .239/.330/.377 line with a 25.9% strikeout rate and a 13.6% swinging strike rate. He was better across the board despite being one of the youngest players in each league, and he got better after moving up to High-A. The only real quibble is the ground balls. The average in those two leagues is around 43%. Hopefully Jasson begins to elevate the ball more in the future.

The strikeout rate and swinging strike rate improvement is extremely encouraging. Dominguez moved up a level yet swung and missed less, and the improvement didn’t occur right when he moved up to High-A either. It has been gradual improvement throughout the season. To wit:

I don’t want to make too much of Dominguez slugging .510 as a 19-year-old in High-A because it wasn’t even 200 plate appearances, but gosh, I can’t help but get excited about the reduction in strikeouts. Once the early season sample size weirdness got sorted out, it was a steady decline right through the end of the season, across more than 500 plate appearances.

“To see him honing all of those skills and his discipline at the plate – you see him tonight not expanding the zone, he was getting his ‘A’ swing off, not chasing – the baseball aspects have taken huge strides this year and it’s an awful lot of fun to see,” Somerset manager Dan Fiorito told Randy Miller following Dominguez’s Double-A debut Tuesday. “He was doing really well. He was controlling his at-bats. His bat-to-ball skills, he’s checking all the boxes right now, so it was a well-earned promotion for him.”

Keith Law (subs. req’d) caught Dominguez’s final High-A game and first Double-A game. Here’s the relevant part of his write-up:

Saturday night (in High-A) was a ridiculous showing for him. He homered from both sides of the plate, including a missile he hit left-handed and a right-handed homer I didn’t even think he hit all that solidly, as well as two more hard-hit balls and a tremendous diving catch in center. It’s plus-plus power, 70 speed and good swings both ways … (In Double-A on Tuesday he) seemed to struggle most with changing speeds – he was on breaking stuff, which isn’t surprising for a hitter who always has the platoon advantage, but his one swinging strikeout was on an 89 mph fastball middle-up from a lefty, a pitch he should have at least squared up, if not clobbered. As pitchers went fastball-changeup and back, however, he was slower to adjust. That may be his next developmental hurdle. It’s true centerfield and 30-30 upside, though, and more than enough command of the strike zone to get him there in time.

Prior to 2022, everything about Dominguez’s career was overblown. He was touted as the next Mike Trout when he first signed, then he didn’t wreck the league during his pro debut last season and dropped out of some top 100 prospect lists. Now it feels like reality is settling in. Dominguez is not the next Trout, but he is a great prospect. He is universally praised for his natural gifts and has demonstrated progress turning those gifts into baseball skills this season.

We have to remember this is a kid who lost his age 17 season, a crucial development year for international signees, to a pandemic. Also, because MLB eliminated the short season leagues a year ago, Dominguez essentially made his pro debut as an 18-year-old in Low-A after spending a summer at home. That he wasn’t the best version of himself right away is understandable given the circumstances, yet I feel like those circumstances were forgotten when evaluations were made.

The Yankees have moved Dominguez up the ladder aggressively and this promotion to Double-A may be permanent, as in he’ll start 2023 with Somerset. That’s not always the case. Estevan Florial joined Double-A Trenton for the postseason in 2017 so he could continue playing after High-A Tampa's season ended, then he returned to High-A to begin 2018. Maybe the Yankees do that with Dominguez. Given how they’ve moved him to date, I think there’s a good chance he starts next year in Double-A.

Either way, I’m not sure we could’ve asked for a better season from Dominguez. He performed extremely well – Dominguez and Diamondbacks shortstop Jordan Lawlar (last year’s No. 6 overall pick) are the only teenagers with 10+ homers and 30+ steals in the minors this year – while reducing his strikeouts greatly, and he got better as he moved up a level. The kid checked a lot of boxes. Dominguez may not be the next Trout, but he has all the look of a future All-Star.

"He's just such a great kid. A phenomenal athlete, really just a fantastic human being, and what he's been doing lately is impressive,” High-A Hudson Valley manager Rob Benjamin told Rob Terranova about Dominguez last week. "He's been really open to our discussions, and having quality at-bats and making quality decisions, and he's just been really receptive in pregame meetings and just really inquisitive, which is fantastic for a kid his age and shows a really advanced mindset and approach both in meetings and at the plate."

4. In praise of the RailRiders. I want to give a quick shoutout to Triple-A Scranton. They were dead and buried at 19-36 on June 8th. They are now 75-61 and alone in first place after winning Wednesday night while Durham (Rays) lost. Last week the RailRiders went to Durham and won four of six while outscoring them 40-24 to vault back into the division race.

Scranton is 56-25 since bottoming out on June 8th (a 112-win pace in a 162-game season) and they’re 10-3 in September. That’s despite having …

• … three members of the starting rotation traded away at the deadline (JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk, Hayden Wesneski).
• … arguably their four best hitters called up to the big leagues (Miguel Andujar, Oswaldo Cabrera, Estevan Florial, Oswald Peraza).
• … their closer (Greg Weissert) and two other starters (Clarke Schmidt and Ryan Weber) called up to the big leagues.

Anthony Volpe’s promotion has replaced some of the lost offense (he is 13-for-42 (.310) with two homers in 10 Triple-A games) but the RailRiders are running a bullpen game just about once every five days, and they’ve had zero margin of error in the standings. This torrid three-month stretch has them only a half-game up in the East Division.

Scranton has 14 games remaining, so the race for the division title and a spot in the International League Championship Series is far from over. The fact they’re even in it is remarkable. Credit to manager Doug Davis and his staff, and of course the players as well. Winning is not the priority in the minors, development is, but you want to foster a winning culture and Davis and his people appear to have done that. Well done, RailRiders.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Jonathan asks: Has Wandy actually been in as many insanely high variance/leverage situations as it feels like? My current guess is that his average LI is middle of the pack but he randomly has like 4 of the top 6 highest LI appearances of any pitcher on the team.

Wandy Peralta indeed has four of the six highest leverage pitching appearances by a Yankee this season. For comparison, Mike King has six of the top 33, Clay Holmes has six of the top 35, and Jonathan Loaisiga has six of the top 65. Even dating back to last year, Magic Wandy seems to be the dedicated “the guy on the mound is making a mess and someone has to clean it up” reliever.

In terms of average leverage index, Peralta ranks fourth in the bullpen (min. 20 innings), so yeah, perfectly middle of the pack in an eight-man bullpen. Here’s the Yankees’ average leverage index leaderboard (min. 20 innings again):

1. Clay Holmes: 1.88
2. Mike King: 1.56
3. Jonathan Loaisiga: 1.43
4. Wandy Peralta: 1.38
5. Aroldis Chapman: 1.32
6. Clarke Schmidt: 1.17
7. Miguel Castro: 1.09
8. Ron Marinaccio: 0.96
9. Lucas Luetge: 0.71
10. Albert Abreu: 0.70

In an individual game, a leverage index over 2.00 qualifies as a high leverage situation, though a reliever with an average leverage index north of 1.25 for the season is generally seeing important innings. Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano is the MLB leader with a 2.55 average leverage index. Old pal David Robertson is second at 2.28. They’ve seen a ton of important situations.

The leaderboard generally lines up with reliever quality, right? Holmes and King (before he got hurt) have seen the highest leverage work. Loaisiga is beginning to climb the leaderboard after pitching poorly (and getting hurt) earlier this season. Chapman pitched his way out of the Circle of Trust™ (and got hurt) and Luetge is mostly a low leverage dude. Then there’s Wandy.

To answer the question about leverage variance, here’s the standard deviation of each reliever’s leverage index when entering the game. The bigger the number, the more variance (min. 30 relief appearances):

1. Wandy Peralta: 1.38
2. Aroldis Chapman: 1.17
3. Mike King: 1.05
4. Jonathan Loaisiga: 0.97
5. Clay Holmes: 0.92
6. Lucas Luetge: 0.83
7. Ron Marinaccio: 0.77
8. Miguel Castro: 0.69

Yep, Wandy has the biggest variance in leverage index. His usage is all over the place. To put it another way, Peralta has entered 14 games with a leverage index of at least 2.00 (high) and also 17 games with a leverage index under 0.50 (very low). Holmes is at 22 games of at least 2.00 and only four under 0.50, for comparison. His role is high leverage, period. Wandy’s role is more undefined and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Flexibility is good, and Peralta does it all.

Brian asks: If Benny can't come back, wouldn't the outfield alignment that makes the most sense be to start Bader LF, Judge CF, Oswaldo RF? Especially considering how big LF is at Yankee Stadium, we've seen how valuable Gardy's d was there for many years.

I’m not sure even the Yankees know what they’re going to do in left field. Aaron Judge has never played left in the big leagues, Harrison Bader has fewer than 60 MLB innings in left (and none since 2018), and Oswaldo Cabrera has one career game in left (in Triple-A). How do you align them? Are they hoping Aaron Hicks turns it around and can play left field after not turning it around the last five and a half months? That would be foolish.

I agree Bader in left, Judge in center, and Cabrera in right is the most sensible outfield alignment once Bader returns, though I have no idea whether the Yankees will actually do it. They’ve done nothing but rave about Bader’s center field defense since the trade, so bringing him back as a left fielder would be kinda dopey even though it’s not unreasonable. Left field in Yankee Stadium is huge and Bader’s glove would not go to waste there.

Maybe I’m missing an obvious solution here but left field is a mystery to me, and that includes going into the postseason (assuming Andrew Benintendi doesn’t make it back). I’m curious to see what the Yankees do here. Bader in left, Judge in center, and Cabrera in right means all three guys are playing (at best) their second best position, but it also might be the smart move.

Ray asks: If the automatic strike zone comes into play in the next year or two does Trevino’s value increase and increase the likelihood that Wells stays behind the plate? Trevino can hit a little and his blocking/throwing ability is top notch. Wells won’t have to worry about framing and his bat could be an A in the bigs. I would think teams would want offensive minded catchers.

Commissioner Rob Manfred recently told Don Van Natta Jr. there will likely be some version of an automated strike zone in 2024. They tested a challenge system in the select minor league games this season in which a human umpire called balls and strikes, and each team could appeal three calls to the automated system. Here’s video. The process was very quick. I like that as a compromise between human umpires and a fully automated strike zone.

Anyway, a fully automated zone will eliminate pitch-framing as a skill. Jose Trevino leads baseball in every public framing metric …

• Baseball Prospectus: +19.6 runs (Jonah Heim is second at +12.6)
• FanGraphs: +17 runs (Heim is second at +8.4)
• Statcast: +14 runs (Heim is second at +11)

… so an automated strike zone would take a bite out of his value. We can calculate how big a bite too. Trevino currently ranks seventh among catchers with +3.4 WAR. Remove framing and he drops to tenth with +2.3 WAR (here’s my spreadsheet). It’s more than a full win of value gone.

Trevino’s hit well for a catcher (but not great overall) and he rates well as a blocker and thrower, though his single greatest skill would become irrelevant with an automated strike zone. I reckon the Yankees would shift focus toward more offensive-minded catchers in that case, which would be bad news for Trevino (and Kyle Higashioka as well). If the Yankees do it, other teams will.

On the flip side, a fully automated strike zone would be amazing for Austin Wells, who reportedly remains a rough receiver. He’s said to be just an okay blocker and thrower too, so it’s not like framing is his one shortfall. Eliminate framing and his defense becomes more palatable, and his glove gives back a lot less of the value he creates with his bat.

Look at the quality of the stuff the Yankees have on their pitching staff (now and the last few years). It’s all high velocity, high spin, tons of movement, etc. It’s not an easy staff to catch, and if you remove the need to present pitches to the umpire well, it will make life so much easier for the catchers. Will it hurt the pitchers? Yeah, I think so. Trevino is such a good framer that an automated zone likely equals fewer strikes for the pitching staff. That would be bad.

A fully automated strike zone would take a bite out of Trevino’s value and also increase the chances Wells sticks behind the plate. That said, Trevino has defensive value beyond framing, and framing is not the only thing holding Wells back defensively. I don’t think a challenge system would change anything with regard to how teams value catchers. With a fully automated zone, I imagine the pendulum will swing back toward offense behind the plate.

Dan asks: Your mailbag question (two weeks ago) got me thinking about the opposite question: are there any homers this year where the exit velo was *slower* than the pitch velo? Seems like it would be possible but very rare.

Yep! Entering Wednesday it only happened 30 times out of 4,590 total home runs this season, but it has happened. The biggest gap is 5.8 mph. That was a 92.1 mph Nico Hoerner homer on a 97.9 mph Hunter Greene pitch. Here’s the video. No Yankees hitter has done it, though Harold Ramirez hit an 85.4 mph home run against a 90.0 mph Nestor Cortes pitch (video). The 4.6 mph gap is the fourth largest this year. Here’s the spreadsheet, if you’re interested.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)