The Yankees and MLB’s newest rules

At long last, the pitch clock is here. (MiLB.com)

As expected, MLB’s competition committee last week approved a series of rule changes set to take effect next season. Specifically, there will now be a pitch clock and a ban on infield shifts, as well as larger bases. There are all sorts of details and restrictions within these rules and I point you to Anthony Castrovince for those. Here’s the short version:

• 15-second pitch clock with the bases empty and 20 seconds with men on base.
• Two infielders on each side of second base and all four infielders must have both feet on the dirt when the pitch is released.
• Bases are now 18 inches by 18 inches rather than 15 inches by 15 inches.

The vote was held last Friday and it was not unanimous. In fact, the player representatives all voted against the pitch clock and ban on infield shifts. The 11-person competition committee consists of one umpire, four players, and six league officials. A majority is needed to pass any rule changes, and since MLB has its thumb on the scale, it can pass anything it wants.

“We are disappointed that more of our feedback wasn’t included in the final proposal,” Giants outfielder Austin Slater, who serves on the competition committee, told Andrew Baggarly. “But the players will adjust as we always do. At the end of the day these changes will improve our sport and hopefully be viewed positively by fans.”

I’m glad someone on the players’ side said that. The players always resist anything that changes the way they play the game, but this isn’t about them. It’s about making the game better for fans by improving the pace of play and creating more offense. Will banning the shift lead to more base hits and actually increase offense? Who knows. We’re going to find out.

These new rules were all tested in the minors. J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) found the pitch clock cut 24-25 minutes off the average nine-inning game, and because a pitch clock has been in use at Double-A and Triple-A for several years, over 80% of big leaguers have played with one at some point, Jayson Stark (subs. req’d) found. I don’t think it’ll be that big of an adjustment.

Anyway, the rule changes will affect different players in different ways. I don’t think the pitch clock will bother someone like Nestor Cortes even a tiny bit. Aroldis Chapman though? It could be a big problem for him. Let’s go through the new rules and see how they may affect the Yankees.

Pitch Clock – Pitchers

Back in 2017, Rob Arthur did the research and found pitchers who take longer between pitches tend to throw harder, and the game has since devolved into pitchers making a max effort pitch, taking 30 seconds to recover, then doing it again. The league’s average velocity and strikeout rate have risen accordingly.

Yankees pitchers collectively have the game’s seventh slowest pace at 23.5 seconds between pitches within an at-bat this year. That is tied with the Dodgers and Padres, and only slightly quicker than the Astros (23.7 seconds) and Rays (23.6 seconds). A slower pace equals more velocity, and more velocity generally equals better results. It’s probably not a coincidence the league’s best pitching teams are among those with the slowest paces.

Chapman is one of the worst offenders. He’s averaged 29.7 seconds (!) between pitches the last two years, fourth highest among over 500 pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. The MLB average this year is 23.1 seconds between pitches. Here are notable Yankees pitchers and their paces this season (these are all in seconds):

* Includes their time with their previous teams.

Alright, so what are these numbers telling us? “Pace” is straightforward. That is the average time between pitches within an at-bat. Statcast calculates pace using the timestamps of the first and last pitches of the at-bat, and dividing the time elapsed by pitches thrown (minus one). Easy.

“Timer” measures the time between the pitcher receiving the ball from the catcher (or umpire) and the pitch being released. That more closely aligns with the pitch clock than pace but still isn’t perfect, mostly because it is an estimate more than an exact measurement. Also, the pitcher only needs to begin his delivery within the allotted time, not release the pitch. Got it? Good.

Generally speaking, Yankees starters work quicker than Yankees relievers, which is the theme throughout baseball. Among pitchers with at least 40 innings this season, the 39 slowest and 46 of the 50 slowest are all relievers according to pace. Relievers are the guys throwing max effort and taking extra time to recover. Not so much starters.

* The slowest working starter is Shohei Ohtani at 26.1 seconds. Between hitting and pitching, that dude has an insane workload, so taking a little longer between pitches is understandable.

Chapman has long been one of baseball’s slowest workers and he’ll have to make a pretty big adjustment to the pitch clock. Then again, he’s likely to be some other team’s problem next year. Holmes, King, and Loaisiga are in the same boat. They take a very long time between pitches. The good news is they have an entire offseason to prepare for the pick clock (plus they've all used it in the minors).

How about Montas? He slows down so much with men on base, according to Statcast’s Timer metric. We’re talking nearly 10 seconds (!) slower between pitches. That isn’t gonna work with the pitch clock. Montas has to speed things up with ducks on the pond. Most guys do, really. On the other end of the spectrum you have Cortes, Severino, and Peralta. They get the ball and go.

Historically, pitchers with slower paces are more effective, though there’s selection bias there because relievers typically have slower paces, and they’re usually more effective as short burst guys than starters who work 5-6 innings. Perhaps relievers will be less effective with a pitch clock? I’d honestly be cool with it. Pitchers have enough advantages as it is.

Pitchers with slower paces tend to throw harder, and there is correlation between velocity and movement. Slower pitches typically move more, so perhaps a quicker pace leads to less velocity from Loaisiga, Holmes, et al, but also adds movement? That’s not necessarily a good thing! Their sinkers (and sweepers) move a ton as it is, and a few pitchers on staff already have issues locating consistently. Will they be able to locate with even more movement? Hmmm.

The point is the Yankees and their pitchers, like most teams and their pitchers, will have to work a bit quicker moving forward, particularly their relievers. That so many quality teams have slow paces suggests not only is there a possible correlation between pace and effectiveness, but a slow pace might be a strategy. Working slowly may be intentional! If it is, then it has to change.

Pitch Clock – Hitters

Hitters must adhere to the pitch clock too. The new rule says hitters must be “in the box and alert to the pitcher” with at least eight seconds remaining on the clock, otherwise they’re hit with an automatic strike (pitchers get an automatic ball if they violate the pitch clock). Yankees hitters average 23.7 seconds between pitches, fourth highest in baseball.

The slowest hitters work as slowly as the slowest pitchers (we’re talking 28+ seconds between pitches), though there are way fewer hitters who work at that pace than pitchers. Here are notable Yankees hitters and their paces this season:

* Includes his time with the Royals.

Look at Judge! I would have guessed he was among the quickest workers at the plate because he tends to stay in the box after taking a pitch, but nope. He does step out to collect himself after fouling pitches away. I guess that all adds up and drags down (or up, really) his time at the plate? Wouldn’t have guessed Judge was among the slowest Yankees hitters though.

Other than Judge, the numbers generally align with the eye test. Carpenter and Hicks take an eternity between pitches while Stanton sets his feet and doesn’t move. He never leaves the box to adjust his batting gloves or anything like that. He digs in and stays there for the duration. Most Yankees hitters are right around the league average pace.

Baseball players are creatures of habit and guys with long between-pitch routines (like Carpenter touching the dirt and rubbing his hands together) will have to make the biggest adjustment to get back in the box quickly. They’re going to feel rushed and I’m certain some players (both pitchers and hitters) will use the pitch clock as an excuse for poor performance. It is inevitable.

Keep in mind there is a safety component to this. You don’t want anyone to get hit by a pitch because they weren’t ready when the pitch clock expired. There’s not much you can do about that other than expect the hitter to be ready. MLB announced these rules well in advance of the offseason and Spring Training. Go make whatever adjustments you need to make this winter.

There have been no good studies into the correlation between hitter pace and performance. We know slow-working pitchers tend to throw harder. Do slow-working hitters perform better than fast workers? Worse? I have no idea. Baseball players love their routines and guys with long between-pitch routines will have to adjust. I’m sure it’ll be a little weird, but they’ll live.

Ultimately, we have no idea how the pitch clock will affect player performance. I think it will lead to more offense because pitchers (particularly relievers) won’t be able to throw max effort every pitch, but I don’t know that for certain. We do know which players will have to make the biggest adjustments to their routines to be pitch clock compliant though. That group includes several important Yankees relievers, though not quite as many hitters, it appears.

Pitch Clock – Limit on Pickoff Throws

There’s a limit on pickoffs now. As part of the pitch clock rules, pitchers are allowed two “disengagements” (pickoff throws or step offs) per plate appearance, though they get two more if the runner moves up on a steal or wild pitch or whatever. The pitch clock resets with each disengagement but the pitcher can’t step off as many times as he wants. Two per plate appearance. That’s it. If he disengages a third time, all runners are allowed to advance one base, similar to a balk.

The Yankees have made a concerted effort to combat the running game this season and it’s working. They enter Tuesday with the best caught stealing rate (38%) and the third lowest rate of stolen base attempts against (0.46 per game) in baseball. Pickoff throws and step offs are part of their strategy. Look at their pickoff attempt rates over the years (we have no numbers of step offs):

• 2022: 3.56 per game (7th most in MLB)
• 2021: 3.60 per game (7th most)
• 2020: 2.92 per game (19th most)
• 2019: 2.91 per game (16th most)
• 2018: 3.14 per game (19th most)

The MLB average is 3.11 pickoff attempts per game and doesn’t that seem low? We sometimes see three pickoffs in a single at-bat. Eh, whatever. Point is, the Yankees have made more pickoff throws the last two seasons. They’ll have to rein that in a bit beginning next year, particularly Taillon. He is 14th in pickoff attempts this year and far and away the Yankees' leader. Then again, he’s a free agent this winter, so the Yankees may not need to worry about finding Taillon another way to hold runners.

Cooper looked at the minor leagues with a limit on pickoff throws, and stolen base attempts went through the roof. Those leagues averaged 1.4 steal attempts per game in 2022. It was 1.1 in 2019, the last pre-pandemic season. The stolen base success rate is up as well. Once your two disengagements are up, you’re out of luck. The runner can take a huge lead and run on first movement because they know the ball is going to the plate.

The Yankees had several pitchers susceptible to stolen bases in recent years (Dellin Betances and Adam Ottavino immediately jump to mind) but not so much this year. Runners are 7-for-10 against Cole and that’s in over 170 innings. No one else on the staff has even seven attempts against, and the most susceptible reliever (Chapman) is a free agent in a few weeks. Again, the new measures the Yankees have put in place to slow down the running game are working well.

The limit on disengagements will force the Yankees and other teams to adjust their strategies (maybe pitchouts will make a comeback?), and keep in mind the pitch clock will make it more difficult for the pitcher to vary his times to the plate. All signs point to these rules making stolen bases cool again, and you know what? I’m all for it. Stolen bases are fun.

Larger Bases

Might as well lump this in with the limit on disengagements. Making the bases larger serves two purposes. First and foremost, it will reduce collisions and thus injuries. Anything that keeps players healthy is a plus in my book. And second, it will promote stolen bases and more aggressive baserunning in general because there is slightly less ground to cover between bases.

The Yankees have 86 steals this year, their most since 2017 (90), as well as 114 steal attempts, their most since 2014 (138). Their extra-base taken rate (first-to-third on a single, etc.) is only 37%, below the 42% league average. The improved baserunning (-15.1 runs in 2021 to -5.0 runs in 2022, per FanGraphs) is tied up in additional steals and better individual runners, like Kiner-Falefa.

Despite that big team stolen base total, Kiner-Falefa (18) and Judge (16) are the only Yankees with double-digit steals. The stolen bases are spread out throughout the roster with everyone picking their spots, like Rizzo and his three steals of third base. (Those 18 steals are good enough to tie Kiner-Falefa for ninth in the American League, if you can believe that.)

Remember what happened when the ball was juiced? Elite power hitters like Judge and Stanton didn’t see too much of a benefit. They smash even the deadened baseball. The hitters who were most helped by the juiced ball were the 10-15 homer guys who became 20-homer guys (like LeMahieu), and the 20-homer guys who became 30-homer guys (like Gleyber).

Maybe the larger bases, plus the limit on disengagements, will have a similar effect on stolen bases? The elite stolen base guys, like Jon Berti and Jorge Mateo, will continue stealing plenty of bases*. But could a guy like Kiner-Falefa go from 15-20 steals to 30? Or Torres from 10-12 to 20? Extra-base taken rate could tick up too. Aggressive baserunning is fun. This could be neat.

* I don’t think it will work this way for the top base stealers. You can’t hit a fly ball each time you step to the plate to take advantage of the rocket ball, but you can attempt to steal each time you’re on first base and second is unoccupied. Players have much more control over when they run than how they hit the baseball. We might see the return of 50-60 steal guys.

Ultimately, the Yankees are a power-first offensive team because power wins and their home ballpark favors homers. Speed and stolen bases can complement that power though, and the Yankees have improved their baserunning this year. With the new rules next year, they could improve it even more. Speed will never replace power as their go-to offensive tactic, but it can be an effective second dimension.

Banning the Shift – Hitters

The league averages are a .251 AVG and .299 BABIP with a standard infield alignment this year. With the shift, those numbers are .234 and .279, respectively. That doesn’t necessarily mean the league batting average will jump 17 points next year because there’s no shift, because the new rules allow teams to align their infield like this:

That is a legal infield alignment that is still mighty close to the shift. The shortstop is going to take away hits on ground balls up the middle, and ground balls to the right side won’t automatically scoot through for hits. Soft liners that are caught by the defender in shallow right will now go for hits, but teams still have a good amount of latitude with their infield positioning.

The average hitter has seen the shift in 34.2% of his plate appearances this season (up from 30.9% last year and 25.6% in 2019) and that’s broken down into 55.6% for lefties and 20.3% for righties. The Yankees have several of the most shifted hitters in baseball this season, and also a few of the least shifted. Let’s go through them one by one.

Aaron Hicks (91.6% shifts as a lefty): Hicks is a completely different hitter from each side of the plate and he’s said it’s in an effort to use the short porch. As a righty he stands way off the plate and tries to swat everything the other way. As a lefty he stands closer to the plate and looks to pull the ball. Look at his spray heat map as a lefty batter:

Not exactly a mystery why teams shift Hicks so much when he’s hitting lefty, huh? It’s hard to imagine Hicks being a Yankee in 2023, so his issues with the shift will be some other team’s problem. For what it’s worth, Hicks is hitting .077 (.100 BABIP) as a lefty with no shift this year, but the sample is so small (fewer than 20 balls in play) that those numbers are meaningless. I don’t want to spend too much time on a player so unlikely to be a Yankee in 2023, so, onward.

Matt Carpenter (89.5%): I don’t know what the future holds for Carpenter but I could see a role for him with the 2023 Yankees. He has the ideal Yankee Stadium swing, he has some defensive versatility, he’s willing to accept a part-time role, he seems to genuinely love being a Yankee, and he’s said to be great in the clubhouse. There’s a spot for Carpenter on the 2023 bench.

Anyway, Carpenter has been one of the most shifted hitters in baseball throughout his career, so much so that he’s put two – two! – balls in play without the shift since 2020. What we do know is Carpenter has run close to a 60% pull rate and a 30% ground ball rate the last few years. He is the epitome of a “pull the ball in the air” Yankee Stadium friendly lefty.

Carpenter doesn’t put the ball on the ground often, but when he does, he usually pulls it right into the shift. The new rules should allow Carpenter to pick up a few more hits when he rolls over on balls going forward. Enough to meaningfully change his outlook? I’m not sure, but Carpenter figures to be among the hitters who benefit most from the rule changes. He’s been extremely shift-prone in his career.

Anthony Rizzo (82.8%): Like Carpenter, Rizzo has been among the most shifted hitters in the sport the last few seasons, and he’s become more susceptible to the shift as he’s become more pull heavy. A graph:

Over the last two seasons Rizzo has hit .321 (.333 BABIP) without the shift and .230 (.231 BABIP) with the shift. Banning the shift (as much as you can say MLB banned it, anyway) will not suddenly turn Rizzo into a .320 hitter, but he does lose a lot of hits to that rover in shallow right field, and now that guy is going away. More hits are coming his way.

Also, Rizzo frequently sees a four-man outfield, and those are going away now too. Infielders must have both feet on the infield dirt when the pitch is released. No more sticking your second baseman in right field for a particularly fly ball happy hitter. This season Rizzo has hit .220 (.210 BABIP) with three-man outfields and .191 (.212 BABIP) with four-man outfielders in a limited sample. Eliminating the short right field rover and the fourth outfielder could really help Rizzo moving forward.

Now that we know the shift is banned, is it enough to encourage the Yankees to bring Rizzo back after the season? There’s a lot that goes into this decision (how does the team feel about the current state of his back, for example), but it stands to reason Rizzo will try to leverage his opt out into an extension. The Yankees could offer a new multi-year deal or call his bluff.

If the Yankees are on the fence about offering Rizzo a multi-year extension, I could see the ban on shifts breaking the tie. The state of his back seems like it’ll be a major factor in that decision, maybe the most important factor. The ban on shifts figures to help Rizzo though, and that in turn makes it somewhat more likely the Yankees bring him back after this season.

Aaron Judge (50.0%): When Judge hits a ground ball, there’s a 60% chance he’ll pull it based on the last two years, so teams typically put three infielders on the left side of the infield against him. And really, the shift only helps so much because Judge hits the ball so hard that he often hits it right through the shift. He’s still very productive even when being shifted.

• 2021-22 with shift: .273 AVG and .295 BABIP
• 2021-22 no shift: .317 AVG and .371 BABIP

As he gets older and slows down, the shift will hurt Judge more with each passing season. That said, he is so good and so productive, and the shift impacts such a relatively small number of batted balls, that banning the shift won’t factor into the Yankees’ decision to sign him long-term even a tiny little bit. There are way, way bigger considerations in play.

Banning the shift could help Judge pick up a few more hits going forward the same way it could help every hitter pick up a few more hits going forward. Judge isn’t exactly the first player who comes to mind when you think about guys who need the shift to go away. It’ll help him somewhat. It’s also a very small factor in his overall production.

Andrew Benintendi (44.4%): It’s not too hard to see a scenario in which the Yankees re-sign Benintendi, especially if a) his wrist injury forces him to take a one-year “prove yourself” deal, and/or b) Judge leaves. I mean, what choice would they have if Judge leaves? The outfield free agent market behind Judge is Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, and post-shoulder surgery Michael Brantley. The options aren’t great.

Anyway, I’m mentioning Benintendi here because he might be one of the rare hitters who is hurt by the shift being banned. According to Inside Edge, Benintendi has gained 14 hits with the shift this season, meaning he’s shot the ball the other way to beat the shift. Only Charlie Blackmon (18) and Freddie Freeman (17) have beaten the shift more. Benintendi keeps beating the shift and teams keep shifting on him. Not the majority of the time, but often enough.

Benintendi revamped his hitting style this year and began to spray the ball to all fields rather than try to pull the ball for power. The scouting report said he was one hitter and he should be shifted a certain way, but he’s now a different hitter, and the result is hits against the shift. Will Benintendi be the same hitter moving forward? I’m not sure, though it’s entirely possible banning the shift will hurt Benintendi more than it helps. Huh.

Gleyber Torres (41.4%): We’re now venturing into “these hitters don’t get shifted much more than the league average” territory. Torres pulls the ball a tad more than he goes to the opposite field, but not much, and he generally sprays the ball all around. Against a sinkerballer, shifting him isn’t a bad idea. Overall, the shift isn’t helping or hurting Torres all that much. The ban doesn’t figure to change his outlook significantly.

Josh Donaldson (39.0%): Donaldson seems like a hitter who should be shifted more. He is one of the most extreme righty pull hitters in the game (48.7% pull rate since 2019), and he rolls over on a lot of weak grounders to the left side. Over the last two seasons Donaldson has hit .229 (.271 BABIP) with a standard infield alignment and .251 (.286 BABIP) with the shift. Huh.

The weird thing is Donaldson has pulled the ball more when he’s being shifted (49.3%) than when he’s not (46.0%), so there doesn’t appear to be a conscious effort to go against the shift when he is shifted. Weird. Regardless, Donaldson turns 37 this offseason and his strikeout, chase, swing and miss, and contact quality rates are all heading in the wrong direction. He has much bigger worries than the shift taking away a few singles.

Giancarlo Stanton (22.3%): You can tell Stanton is going poorly when he pulls a lot of ground balls to the left side. He is typically an all-fields hitter with a knack for elevating the ball though, so shifting only helps so much, and teams rarely bother. The last two years Stanton has hit .234 (.271 BABIP) without the shift and .294 (.324 BABIP) with the shift, which is fun. I imagine that's sample size noise (258 balls in play with the shift spanning two seasons) more than a reflection of skill. Similar to Judge, Stanton’s not exactly someone who comes to mind when you think of players hurt by the shift.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (1.5%), Jose Trevino (1.0%), and DJ LeMahieu (0.0%): Three hitters who consistently use the entire field and are rarely shifted as a result. The ban on shifts mean nothing for them because they don’t get shifted anyway. It’s a compliment, really. It’s impossible to zero in on the parts of the field they use the most because they use them all regularly.

Carpenter, Hicks, and Rizzo are the Yankees most likely to benefit from the ban on infield shifts and there’s a chance none are Yankees next season. Benintendi is on the other end of the spectrum. Banning the shift might actually hurt him based on the hitter he became this year (and he might not be a Yankee next year anyway). Incumbents like Donaldson, Judge, Torres, and Stanton could benefit some. Others like Kiner-Falefa and LeMahieu, not at all.

I don’t think anyone really knows how much banning the infield shift will help offense and batting average. Some individual players, like Rizzo, figure to benefit greatly. Others, like LeMahieu, won’t see any benefit. What does it mean for the league as a whole? I don’t know. I keep saying that, but I really don't know. Teams still have a good deal of freedom with infield positioning. I hope this results in more hits and more offense, and a more aesthetically pleasing product.

(You ready for the “Increase in batting average proves MLB was right to ban the shift” articles on, like, April 8th next season?)

Banning the Shift – Defenders

There are two sides to this game and while we mostly associate the shift with hurting hitters, it also helps defenders. Teams are free to position defenders anywhere they want, and can put range-challenged players in places they are less likely to need their range. You can stick that slow-footed second baseman in shallow right, giving him more time to react.

Here’s how various Yankees infielders rate going to their left and right, and also how deep the Yankees tend to position them (using 2021-22 numbers for a larger sample):

Not much to see at shortstop and third base with regards to positioning depth. At second base though, it’s interesting the Yankees have typically positioned Torres a little deeper than LeMahieu, giving him more time to react. LeMahieu’s numbers to his left and right are much better than Gleyber’s overall, so that passes the sniff test.

Does this mean Gleyber’s second base defense will take a hit because he must keep both feet on the infield dirt and can no longer venture out into shallow right field? Yeah, it might. Torres is not the most gifted defender nor is he particularly rangy. Play him a touch deeper than average like the Yankees do, and you buy him a few extra steps. That goes away next year.

How much will this hurt Torres? It’s impossible to say right now. It might turn a -2 defender into a -5 defender, or it might turn a -2 defender into a -2.1 defender. I think there is something to the Yankees playing Torres deeper to mitigate his lack of range though, in which case banning the shift will take away from his defense. No longer can positioning be fully optimized.

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