September 12th, 2022: AL East Race, Judge, Offense, Pitching, Hicks, Peraza, Florial, Rortvedt, Jeter

Only 21 games and 23 days remain in the 2023 regular season. I’m not sure I’d call this the most exciting season in recent Yankees memory, but it has certainly been the most extreme. We’ve gone from one end of the spectrum to the other, and back again. Here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday night since it’s an off-day. I apologize it’s shorter than usual, but I started to work on something looking at how the new rules (pitch clock, infield shift ban, etc.) could impact individual Yankees, and it took on a mind of its own. Look for that later this week. I don’t want to rush it and half-ass it.

1. Weekend thoughts. Good weekend? Good weekend. Great weekend, really. The Yankees asserted their dominance in the AL East and looked the part of a division winner for the first time in several weeks. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

Taking control of the AL East

The AL East race is not over, the 2022 Yankees have taught us not to get too comfortable, but the Yankees put themselves in a great spot. The Yankees took care of business this weekend and took two of three from the Rays (convincingly too, they weren’t nail-biters), and went 3-3 against Tampa the last two weekends. They did not allow the Rays to gain any ground in two head-to-head series while chopping another week off the schedule.

“The convincing way they did it,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce when asked what impressed him most about the weekend. “Obviously the offense was huge both days here. Just two really good days for us heading into an off-day.”

Saturday’s win clinched the season series for the Yankees, giving them the tiebreaker should they finish with the same record as the Rays. That means the 5.5-game lead is effectively a 6.5-game lead. A tie does Tampa no good. (Reminder: MLB got rid of Game 163 tiebreakers. Every tie is decided mathematically now and the Yankees have the tiebreaker over the Rays.)

Is it time to start counting down the magic number? By the power vested in me by RAB readers, I say yes. The Yankees hold the tiebreaker over the Orioles, so the magic number to clinch a postseason berth is a tidy 10 (the earliest they can clinch a postseason berth is Monday). And because the Yankees hold the tiebreaker over Tampa, the magic number to clinch the AL East is 17. The earliest they can clinch the division is next Wednesday.

The AL Central is an unserious division, so we don’t have to worry about the Guardians or White Sox jumping in to steal away a Wild Card Series bye. Win the AL East and the Yankees get to skip the Wild Card Series and go directly to the ALDS. For posterity’s sake, here are the relevant Wild Card standings. They double as the AL East standings, just with the Mariners thrown in:

1. Yankees: 85-56 (+6 GB)
2. Rays: 78-60 (+0.5 GB) (top Wild Card team by percentage points)
3. Mariners: 79-61 (+0.5 GB)
4. Blue Jays: 78-61 (+0 GB) (third Wild Card team)
5. Orioles: 73-67 (5.5 GB)

(The Wild Card races would be so much better with the old postseason format. The AL Wild Card race is just three teams fighting for seeding at this point. The National League is three teams fighting for two spots rather than three teams fighting for one spot.)

The Blue Jays and Rays begin a five games in four days series Monday in Toronto (they play a four-game series next week too). The best case for the Yankees is one team winning three of five, which prevents either club from making up significant ground in the AL East. One team winning four of five or even sweeping could draw them uncomfortably close to the Yankees. I’d like to avoid that (again).

The Yankees play two games in Boston this week and the Red Sox have already checked out for the season. They’re giving prospects at-bats, namely catcher Connor Wong and first baseman Triston Casas, and young relievers are getting high leverage innings. I’m sure they’d love to beat the Yankees, though it seems unlikely Alex Cora’s team will go all-out. Keep it rolling and get this division wrapped up soon, and enjoy some meaningless baseball before the postseason.

“I try not to get caught up in it,” Boone told Ron Blum about the AL East race. “By definition it feels better, but we got, whatever, 20 or so to go, and we’ve got to get ourselves right and whole and play our best.”

Judge vs. History update

No home runs for Aaron Judge this weekend, yet he remains on pace to hit 63 homers (63.2 to be exact) and break Roger Maris’ American League single-season record. Swat some dingers in hitter-friendly Boston and Milwaukee this week, then break Maris’ record on the homestand next week. Sound good? It does to me. Yankee Stadium would be electric.

“I’m not really chasing or looking at anything,” Judge told Dan Martin after hitting his 55th homer. “It’s just happening.”

At this point Judge isn’t just chasing the AL’s single-season home run record. He’s also chasing a Triple Crown. He leads the league in home runs and runs batted in, and after going 16-for-33 (.485) in his last nine games, Judge is hitting .307. He’s now in the batting race too. Here’s where Judge sits in the Triple Crown categories (AL only):

• AVG: .307 (behind Xander Bogaerts at .319, Luis Arraez at .315, Jose Abreu at .310, and Nate Lowe at .309)
• HR: 55 (Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are distant seconds with 34 each)
• RBI: 121 (Jose Ramirez has 109 and no one else has more than 90)

The pitching staff can help Judge win the Triple Crown! The Yankees have six games remaining with the Red Sox, so if the pitchers shut Bogaerts down, it’ll help Judge’s Triple Crown chances. Also, the Yankees finish the season with four games in Texas. Clay Holmes striking out Lowe to close out Game 162 and give Judge the batting title and a Triple Crown would be rather amazing.

Judge currently sports a 205 OPS+. Juan Soto had a 217 OPS+ in the short pandemic season, and the last player to post a 200 OPS+ in a 162-game season was Barry Bonds in 2004 (263 OPS+). The last AL player to do it was Frank Thomas (212 OPS+) in 1994, the strike-shortened season. Judge has a chance to become the first AL player with a 200 OPS+ in a full 162-game season since George Brett in 1980 (203 OPS+). Yowza.

It’s too bad Judge missed out on a chance to pad his homer total in an at-bat against a position player Saturday, but he’s played a lot of baseball lately (started 56 of the last 57 games) and the Yankees have to keep him healthy and on the field. Winning the World Series takes priority over an individual accomplishment – Judge would tell you that – and getting him off his feet whenever possible is worthwhile, even if only for a few innings like Saturday (and Sunday).

So, we are officially on Maris Watch and Triple Crown Watch. Ben Clemens ran his simulations again and Judge is still most likely to hit his 61st homer during the Toronto series (Sept. 26th to 28th). The Yankees come home for three games with the Orioles after that. It is their final home series. It’s a tall order, but hitting No. 60, No. 61, and No. 62 in that series would be epic.

Finally, an offensive breakout

I am convinced Luis Patino was tipping his pitches Sunday. The takes and swings were way too comfortable, and the Yankees missed only four times on 35 swings, or 11.4%. Patino’s career rate going into the start was 25.2% whiffs. He went to an 0-2 count five times and the Yankees went 2-for-2 with three walks, and they went 4-for-6 with four walks in two-strike counts period.

To be clear, I’m not taking anything away from the Yankees. I’m just making an observation. If Patino was tipping, give the Yankees credit for finding a flaw and exploiting it. And if Patino wasn’t tipping, even better. It means the Yankees had terrific at-bats and got their mojo back. Either way, 10 runs Saturday and 10 runs Sunday after no more than three runs 10 times in the previous 14 games was a sight for sore eyes. I mean really, how refreshing were the last two games?

The Yankees opened Saturday’s game with seven consecutive hits (all singles), a thing I didn’t think was possible in the year 2022. I could’ve sworn I saw they were the first team to open a game with seven straight hits since the Royals in 2015, but apparently not. I don’t know the last team to do it, but I do know the Yankees last did it on Sept. 25th, 1990. Here’s that box score if you want to Remember Some Guys.

Prior to Saturday’s outburst the Yankees had scored 14 runs total in their previous seven games against the Rays, and eight of the 14 came in one game. There were good signs aplenty this past weekend:

• Giancarlo Stanton is getting his timing down and beginning to drive balls in the air. The swings and misses are down and he’s not beating everything into the ground anymore.
• Gleyber Torres hit two homers Sunday and three on the homestand. He hit three homers in his previous 36 games. He’s also beginning to drive the ball in the air again.
• Oswaldo Cabrera went deep! It was a bomb too (video). Cabrera’s hit 38 homers in 170 minor league games the last two years. The power is real and we finally saw it.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa went 10-for-26 (.385) with two homers and only two strikeouts on the homestand. May the BABIP hot streak last through November.

“I think I’m more confident,” Torres told Bryan Hoch following Sunday’s two-homer effort. “In August, I worried too much about myself if I struck out or didn’t do anything for the team. It seems like there were too many things mentally. Now I can come to the field with 100% confidence and just try to feel good.”

The Yankees hit .333/.390/.594 as a team the last two games. In their previous 14 games, dating back to the 13-run game in Oakland, they hit .191/.279/.328, and that was with Judge doing what he’s doing. Some of those lineups last week were legitimately Triple-A caliber around Judge. Stanton’s and Josh Donaldson’s returns added length and legitimacy to that group.

At the end of the day, either the Yankees will have enough healthy and productive Major League hitters in their lineup, or they’re headed for a quick exit in October. Anthony Rizzo’s lefty power is sorely missed and getting DJ LeMahieu’s high contact bat back in is important too. I consider anything the Yankees get from Andrew Benintendi and Matt Carpenter going forward a bonus.

Hopefully these last two games were the beginning of a turnaround (that Stanton and Torres are really on the way back, etc.) and not just a tease like that 13-run game in Oakland. By and large, the pitching has been great lately. You can’t win on pitching alone though. The Yankees have some offensive help on the way and with any luck this weekend was real and not just a blip.

“To get a couple more guys back in the mix and back in the lineup obviously is huge, and hopefully as we go, that continues to happen,” Boone told Blum after Sunday’s win.

Domingo and the bullpen

When the Yankees announced Domingo German would start Sunday on short rest, I assumed it would be an abbreviated outing rather than a full start, but I didn’t think it would be one inning and 14 pitches. The Yankees gave Tampa a taste of their own medicine with a bullpen game, taking advantage of Monday’s off-day (and Gerrit Cole’s start Tuesday, since you can count on him to eat innings) to empty their bullpen in an important game.

“Coming into this day, I knew we were going this route,” Boone told James O’Connell. “I would say we sorta scripted it out, pretty close. Clarke (Schmidt) giving us a little bit of length there at the end gave us some wiggle room. It went somewhat according to plan.”

The bullpen game was necessitated by Tuesday’s postponement. Cole threw a season-high 118 pitches in Game 2 of Wednesday’s doubleheader, so bringing him back on short rest was not an option. Also, extra innings in Game 1 of that doubleheader taxed the bullpen and forced the Yankees to use Schmidt in relief Thursday. That took him out of play for a full spot start Sunday.

So, the Yankees scripted out a bullpen game, and essentially bought an inning from German on short rest. Excluding openers, he’s the first Yankee to start a regular season game on short rest since Nathan Eovaldi in June 2015, and Eovaldi started on short rest because he got blasted for eight runs in 0.2 innings in his previous start, and threw only 36 pitches. German’s the first to do it after throwing 90+ pitches in his previous outing since Jose Contreras in July 2004.

Four runs in nine innings isn’t a rousing success, but the game was well out of hand before the Rays chipped away late. The offense gave the bullpen plenty of breathing room and at no point did the game feel close to becoming close after the second inning. Shoutout to Wandy Peralta too. Seven outs on 20 pitches? That guy has been so good in pinstripes.

The daily nature of this sport means every game is connected and the bullpen game was made possible by Jameson Taillon’s terrific outing Saturday. Given the context (needing to prevent the Rays from gaining more ground, bullpen game looming, etc.), it was arguably Taillon’s best start as a Yankee*. The offense gave him a big early lead and he pitched into the eighth inning having allowed just one run (the bullpen allowed two inherited runners to score, sullying his line).

“It gave me chills, walking off,” Taillon told Hoch about leaving the mound to an ovation. “This was a big game against a team that’s hot on our trail. I knew we needed a big game.”

* I’d say Taillon’s best outing as a Yankee is either Sunday or Game 162 last year, when he threw 3.1 scoreless innings and 45 pitches on a bad ankle in a game the Yankees had to win to avoid a Game 163 tiebreaker.

The offense is the story of the last two games, clearly, but Taillon was fantastic Saturday (it was the first time in seven starts he didn’t allow a homer) and he contributed to a win Sunday by saving the bullpen. There have been a few bumps along the way but the pitching staff has been the backbone of the Yankees all year. The offense stole the show Saturday and Sunday. The pitchers did their part too, even while up against it a bit in terms of availability. Props.

Hicks benched (again)

You gotta hand it to Aaron Hicks, the only player I can recall having two final straw games as a Yankee. Or as anything, really, because a final straw is usually, you know, final. Three weeks ago Hicks played his way onto the bench after misplaying a fly ball into a triple and hitting into a 1-2-3 double play with the bases loaded. He started only two of the next 14 games.

Benintendi’s injury pushed Hicks back into the lineup, giving him the rare opportunity to regain his starting spot. Instead, he went 2-for-21 (.095) with no walks (!) in seven games, and misplayed back-to-back fly balls in the fourth inning Friday, leading directly to three runs. Barring a miracle turnaround, this will be enduring image of Hicks’ season:

“I got benched during the game. That’s rough, especially when all you want to do is produce for your team,” Hicks told Hoch after being pulled from the game. “I don’t know how I missed (Wander Franco’s double). It was in my glove and all of a sudden, it’s out of my glove. Next thing you know, runners are running all around and scoring. It’s a play you’ve got to make.”

Boone spared Hicks the ignominy of being pulled mid-inning and instead replaced him in the next inning. “(The booing) was having an effect. I just felt like I needed to do it. He was pretty frustrated and upset,” Boone told Hoch. Hicks has not played since and I don’t see how the Yankees can play him in anything other than an emergency. It’s again a dead roster spot (again).

Releasing Hicks (and giving his roster spot to Anthony Volpe?) absolutely won’t happen because that means eating the rest of the $32M or so remaining on his contract. The Yankees will instead essentially play down a man, then attach a prospect(s) to Hicks to dump as much of his contract as possible in the offseason. Saving money is preferable to putting the best team on the field in a postseason race. It is the Hal Steinbrenner way.

Harrison Bader began his rehab assignment Sunday (1-for-3 with a walk and a steal as the DH) and it’s probably not great he told Mark Sanchez there is still “definite discomfort” in his foot. He’s been told he can’t injure his foot further though, so he’s going to power through it. Either way, the Yankees badly need Bader to contribute at the plate and in the field. Judge is the only no doubt MLB caliber outfielder on the roster. Hicks has rendered himself unplayable (again).

Miscellany

Donaldson returned from the injured list Saturday and Oswald Peraza went back to the bench. Peraza has been on the roster for 10 games. Donaldson missed four of them while on paternity leave and Peraza started all four, going 5-for-11 (.445) with two doubles, two walks, and one strikeout. He’s started only two of the other six games. Shrug … The Yankees designated Ronald Guzman for assignment when Donaldson returned. Guzman went 0-for-6 with five strikeouts and a 3-2-3 double play with the bases loaded and no outs in extra innings in pinstripes, and has the worst win probability added among hitters with no more than 10 plate appearances as a Yankee:

1. Ronald Guzman: -0.44 WPA
2. Pete Kozma: -0.35 WPA
3. Henry Rodriguez: -0.27 WPA
4. Steve Kraly: -0.26 WPA (pitcher hitting)
5. Carl Pavano: -0.24 WPA (pitcher hitting)

About as bad as a six at-bat cameo can get. Anyway, designating Guzman tells us the Yankees are either confident in Cabrera as the backup first baseman (he’s worked out there the last few days) or they expect Rizzo and/or LeMahieu back soon, or both … Estevan Florial is 2-for-11 (.182) with five strikeouts and an abysmal 51.7% contact rate since being called up to replace Benintendi, and he’s also made a few uncharacteristically bad plays in the outfield. It doesn’t seem like Florial is in the long-term plans given how the Yankees use him (as an up-and-down guy only), and he hasn’t exactly made them rethink that stance since returning … And finally, Ben Rortvedt was on the Yankees’ active big league roster for the first time this weekend while Jose Trevino was away on paternity leave. He didn’t get into a game though, not even late in the two blowouts. Kyle Higashioka started all three games against the Rays, including the day game Saturday after the night game Friday. Higashioka went 3-for-4 with a homer Friday, so maybe that contributed to staying him in the lineup, but I think it was nothing more than “this is a very important series and we think he’s our best option, so we’re going to play him.” Other than bullpen sessions in Spring Training, Rortvedt hasn’t caught many guys on the MLB staff, and it’s not like he’s tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A: .211/.296/.385 (80 wRC+) with a 36.0% strikeout rate in 31 games. He has another minor league option remaining for next season and I imagine it will get used.

2. Rapid fire news. During his Hall of Fame tribute ceremony speech Friday (video), Derek Jeter said “I really truly do look forward to hopefully seeing a lot more of you (fans) here in the near future,” leading to instant speculation he is taking a position with the Yankees. Jeter shot that down afterward, telling Bryan Hoch not to “read too much into that,” and that his family is his priority right now. Given his role with the Marlins, I assume Jeter is looking for something at the ownership level rather than a token special advisor job. Also, he was reportedly upset he didn’t have as much control over the baseball decisions as he expected in Miami. I’m not sure the Steinbrenners are willing to give Jeter (or anyone, really) an ownership stake with a say in baseball operations. Role or no role, I hope Jeter is around the Yankees a little more now that he’s no longer with the Marlins. Old Timers’ Day, on-field ceremonies (No. 52 retirement?), that kinda thing … Jeff Passan has information on the new pre-arbitration bonus pool. MLB and the MLBPA are using a joint version of WAR to distribute bonuses, and the short version is the top 100 pre-arb players get a bonus based on their contribution to the WAR total. So if those 100 players combine for +100 WAR and you contributed +2 WAR, you get 2% of the $50M bonus pool. Passan says A’s catcher Sean Murphy currently sits atop this mystery joint WAR leaderboard, even ahead of Yordan Alvarez. That must mean pitch-framing is included, which is great news for Jose Trevino. I assume Nestor Cortes and Mike King (still top 25 in reliever WAR!) are in line for bonuses, maybe even Ron Marinaccio and Clarke Schmidt too … And finally, MLB will voluntarily acknowledge the MLBPA’s minor league union. The MLBPA sent authorization cards to minor leaguers last month and only needed 30% signed to hold a formal unionization vote, and over 50% signed it. Rather than force a vote and drag things out, commissioner Rob Manfred and his cronies saw the writing on the wall and saved everyone some headaches. There’s still a bunch of boring legal stuff that must happen before the two sides even begin to work on a minor league Collective Bargaining Agreement, but that boring legal stuff is now happening. Score one for the little guy.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)