September 9th, 2022: Injuries, Judge, Kiner-Falefa, Cole, Cabrera, Mailbag

Would you believe the Yankees are 10-7 in their last 17 games? Considering they won only 10 of their previous 30 games, that qualifies as major progress. There’s another huge series on tap with the Rays this weekend. Come Monday morning, the AL East race could be all but over or neck-and-neck. Fun! *barfs* Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Injury updates. Andrew Benintendi had hamate surgery Tuesday and Nestor Cortes rejoined the rotation Thursday. Here are the rest of the injury updates with the Yankees firmly in “we need our guys to get healthy and contribute” territory, which we all know never backfires and never leads to disappointment.

Rizzo to the IL (finally)

After playing shorthanded for a week, including during their most important series of the season (to date) last weekend in Tampa, the Yankees finally put Anthony Rizzo on the injured list Wednesday. Even though he hadn’t played in six days, injured list stints can only be backdated three days. Rizzo is eligible to return Tuesday. Will he return that day? I have no idea.

“Frankly, I don't think it's anything back-related now. I think it's just dealing with the headaches (from the epidural). He’s still under doctor's orders to rest,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch. “There’s at least going to be a few days’ ramp up once we get him going, so we’ve just got to get him to that point. It’s been frustrating for him … Some of the images and stuff were good signs. I think they're trying to get their heads around just why exactly this is happening.”

Even with the career-long back issues, Rizzo has been among the most durable players in the game the last decade. This is only his second non-COVID injured list stint (he missed 11 days with back spasms in April 2018) and he’s appeared in 93% of regular season games since 2013. With backs though, it’s usually only a matter of time until minor issues become major problems.

Whether Rizzo’s roster status was mismanaged is irrelevant now – I feel like he should’ve been on the injured list stint as soon as he had the epidural, those usually require a few days of rest before jumping back into action – the Yankees gambled Rizzo would return in fewer than 10 days and lost. That’s the way things have gone the last few weeks. If it can go wrong, it will.

The lineup the last few days has been slightly better than a Spring Training split squad road game lineup, and I say slightly better only because Aaron Judge wouldn’t make such a trip in March. The poor Triple-A Scranton social media person tried to show some love to all the guys who’ve been called up, and had to delete the tweet because it was unintentionally hilarious:

With Rizzo and Benintendi (and Matt Carpenter) hurt, and Guzman looking very much like a Quad-A player in his Yankees debut, the Yankees are now completely devoid of lefty power. Here is a full accounting of every home run hit by a Yankees’ left-handed batter in 2022:

1. Anthony Rizzo: 30 (injured)
2. Matt Carpenter: 15 (injured)
3. Joey Gallo: 12 (traded)
4. Aaron Hicks: 4
5. Marwin Gonzalez: 3
6. Andrew Benintendi: 2 (injured)

All we can do at this point is hope Rizzo returns as soon as he’s eligible, and that the epidural does the trick and allows him to produce right away. Even with homers in back-to-back games in Anaheim, Rizzo hit .200/.282/.371 (85 wRC+) in the 20 games before going down. Coming back as a shell of himself won’t help anything. The Yankees badly need Rizzo healthy and raking.

LeMahieu also to the IL (finally)

Earlier this week I wrote the Yankees had to consider putting DJ LeMahieu on the injured list, and to the injured list he went Thursday. The Yankees are calling it right second toe inflammation. LeMahieu saw a specialist and the injured list stint is backdated, so he is eligible to return next Thursday. Whether he'll actually return that day, I do not know.

"I'm concerned about it,” Boone told Pete Caldera, adding it’s unclear when LeMahieu will return. “Obviously, it's clearly compromised him. It's prevented him from really getting off his swing.''

The toe has been bothering LeMahieu long enough that he received a cortisone shot during the All-Star break, and he stopped hitting a few weeks ago. His last extra-base hit was Aug. 7th and his hard-hit ability has vanished. Here’s this again:

In Anaheim last week LeMahieu squeeze bunted a run in knowing the Angels would then walk Judge intentionally as the next batter, so he had to have felt awful at the plate and/or physically to do that and take the bat out of Judge’s hands (even while getting a run in). This seems very much like a “he gutted it out as long as he could, and he just can’t anymore” situation.

LeMahieu is such an important player because he gives the Yankees coverage in so many places. He can play the three non-shortstop infield positions and play them well (33 games at first, 39 at second, and 46 at third this year), and was the primary table setter ahead of the 55-homer man. That’s a lot of defensive versatility and offensive impact out the door. Bummer.

The Yankees have bodies for second (Gleyber Torres) and third (Josh Donaldson and even Isiah Kiner-Falefa) bases. First base is a wasteland with Rizzo and LeMahieu out though. Guzman has not taken an at-bat since his terrible game Wednesday and Marwin Gonzalez playing everyday will get real old, real fast. Maybe just stick Miguel Andujar there? I dunno.

As for LeMahieu, he turned 34 in July and this is now the second straight season he suffered a second half injury serious enough to compromise his performance, and then send him to the injured list during the postseason race. LeMahieu rarely missed a game from 2014-20, but that equals a lot of wear and tear, and now that he’s in his mid-30s, the Yankees might have to cut back on his workload moving forward just to keep him healthy and productive all season.

Severino makes final rehab start

Likely his final rehab start, anyway. The Yankees have not officially announced anything but all signs point to Luis Severino being activated when eligible on Monday. Well, no, that’s an off-day, so he will probably have to wait until Tuesday to be activated. Severino threw 45 pitches (35 strikes) in four innings with Double-A Somerset on Wednesday. Here’s video.

“Hopefully, yes,” Severino told Dom Amore when asked about coming off the injured list next week. “I feel ready. No (problems) at all. I feel great. I feel strong. I feel ready to go.”

Boone told Brendan Kuty the Yankees could use Severino in a piggyback role out of the bullpen, at least initially. As long as it’s done in a way that allows him to get stretched out so he can start in the postseason, that’s fine with me. The Yankees will have six starters for five rotation spots once Severino returns and he has the most bullpen experience, so he’s the best candidate to move into a piggyback role.

The larger point is the Yankees have to win games with their pitching because the offense, even with Judge on a historic home run pace, barely qualifies as good enough right now. Cortes is back and Severino will be back next week, making an already strong staff even stronger. The Yankees are gonna lean on their pitchers a ton these next few weeks and the more innings they can give to high-end arms like Severino, the better.

Bader on track to begin rehab assignment Tuesday

You could make the case that, given the state of the offense and the state of the pitching staff, the Yankees need Harrison Bader more than they need Jordan Montgomery. Bader is on track to begin a rehab assignment Tuesday. He is taking batting practice and going through outfield and baserunning drills, and there don’t appear to be any restrictions. He’s running with full effort.

“This will be an important week for him in that he’ll do full pregame outfield work, final running progression, continuing to hit,” Boone told Greg Joyce a few days ago. “... We have him targeted for the 13th, which is next Tuesday (for a rehab assignment). But we could even move that up if this week continues to look like what we hope.”

Bader has not played since June 26th and presumably needs more than 2-3 rehab games. The Yankees go to Boston next week and Milwaukee next weekend, so maybe they’re targeting the start of the next homestand the week after that for Bader’s return? That gives him a full week of rehab games following a two-month layoff, then 16 regular season games.

Then again, with what the lineup looks like these days, maybe the Yankees will accelerate things and bring Bader back after only 2-3 rehab games? As long as he feels good physically, of course. I guess it depends how this weekend goes. If the Yankees manage to bury the Rays in the AL East, they can be patient with Bader. If the Rays trim the lead to 1.5 games, the Yankees might bring him back as soon as he feels up for it. We’ll see. Either way, Bader is making progress.

“I think I’ll be 100% ready to compete,” Bader told Joyce. “Whatever I can squeeze out of that is where I’ll be. Trying to return to a version of myself that I thought I was prior to this injury, it’s not real. It’s in your head and in many ways it holds you back. It’s a clean slate. Go out there and soak up as much as I can and play winning baseball. That’s all that matters.”

Carpenter not ready to start baseball activities

Carpenter recently had an x-ray to check on his broken left foot, and while it is healing, it’s not yet healed enough to begin baseball activities. He’ll have another x-ray in 10-14 days to check his progress. This seems like the best case timeline for Carpenter:

• Cleared to begin baseball activities the week of Sept. 19th.
• One week of workouts and rehab games and all that.
• Return to the lineup the week of Sept. 26.

To be clear, Carpenter is right on his original schedule. He didn’t have a setback or anything. The original schedule was 6-8 weeks from the Aug. 8th injury, putting Carpenter on track to return in late September. The Yankees will play their 152nd game on Sept. 26th, so at best, Carpenter will have about 10 games to get ready for the postseason. Again, that’s the best case scenario.

(Winning the division means a Wild Card Series bye, buying Carpenter another five days to get ready for the ALDS. You’d still like to get him into actual games at some point. Live batting practice during postseason workout days will only help so much.)

Carpenter has been an incredible story this season. At this point though, the 36-year-old not only has to get healthy and get back on the field, but he has to get his timing and rhythm down at the plate after a long layoff. I’d love Carpenter to ride in on a white horse and save the offense in September and October. I’m just not sure how possible that is with the season winding down.

“Realistic best case scenario? That’s he’s back and playing at some point,” Boone told Randy Miller earlier this week. “He’ll be more in his boot and walking around a little bit more (between now and his next x-ray). For now he’s able to do that.”

Miscellaneous relievers

Following last week’s leg cramp scare, Zack Britton (elbow) moved his rehab assignment up to Triple-A Scranton earlier this week. He’s made one appearance with the RailRiders and has thrown 3.1 rehab innings total. Boone said Britton will make multiple Triple-A appearances, according to Justin Shackil … Aroldis Chapman (leg) is playing catch and will throw in the bullpen at some point soon, and maybe has already. He is eligible to be activated Friday, but obviously that won’t happen. I’m not sure the Yankees are in a rush to activate Chapman anyway … Miguel Castro (shoulder) had to hit pause on his throwing program with what sounds like a dead arm phase. Not sure we’ll see him again this season … Scott Effross (shoulder) and Albert Abreu (elbow) have started throwing programs. Effross is tentatively scheduled to throw his first bullpen session Friday. Abreu is a little further behind. The schedule is starting to get tight for these guys – for all the relievers – to return and make a meaningful contribution … And finally, Stephen Ridings (shoulder) has progressed to facing hitters in live batting practice. Here’s video. Pitching coach Matt Blake told Max Goodman that Ridings could begin a rehab assignment soon. The pitching staff is in good shape at the moment, but the more healthy options, the better.

2. Weekday thoughts. Thursday night the Yankees lost a game in which Sonny Gray started, Gary Sanchez doubled in Gio Urshela, and Carlos Correa hit the game-winning homer. A bunch of recent bad moves and non-moves came back to bite the Yankees in the span of nine innings. Can’t be dropping games to patsies like the Twins when you’re hanging on for dear life in the division race. A few thoughts on the last games.

The winning season streak lives on

Thanks to Oswaldo Cabrera’s 0-for-25 slump-ending walk-off hit, the Yankees won their 82nd game Wednesday evening, and clinched their 30th consecutive winning season. They haven’t had even a .500 season since going 76-86 in 1992, the year Aaron Judge was born. Here are the longest winning season streaks in the four major North American sports:

1. 1926-64 Yankees: 39
2. 1952-83 Montreal Canadiens: 32
3. 1993-2022 Yankees: 30 and counting
4. 1968-96 Boston Bruins: 29

The third longest winning season streak in baseball history is 18 by the 1968-85 Orioles, so the 1926-64 Yankees and 1993-2022 Yankees are out on their own islands far away from everyone else. MLB’s next longest active winning season streak is half as long as the Yankees’ current streak: 15 seasons by the Cardinals (they haven’t won their 82nd game yet but will soon).

This has been a season of extremes with incredibly high peaks and some very low valleys – the Yankees needed 57 games to get their first 41 wins and 79 games to get the next 41 – but, in the end, the Yankees have a winning record again. I say this every year: I greatly appreciate the Yankees never being bad. Like bad bad. Not “this 92-win team sucks and they’re going to get swept in the ALDS” bad. I mean actually bad. 60 or 70-something wins bad.

30 years is a long time and there’s a sizable portion of the fan base that has never seen worse than an 84-win team, and only a handful of times has seen fewer than 90 wins (six times since 1992, once because a pandemic cut the season to 60 games). In the hard tanking era, there’s something to be said for being competitive every single year, and the Angels show it’s not as easy as spending money. Add another year to the winning season streak. May it live forever.

Judge chasing Maris update

Aaron Judge managed only one home run since we last spoke. He’s up to 55 on the season, 19 more than any other player, and you can slice and dice his season to make the league home run leaderboard look hilarious. To wit:

1. Aaron Judge total: 55
2. Aaron Judge against righties: 41
3. Kyle Schwarber: 36
4. Paul Goldschmidt: 35
5. Austin Riley: 35
6. Aaron Judge in the first half: 33
…
14. Aaron Judge at home: 29
…
22. Aaron Judge on the road: 26
…
37. Aaron Judge in the second half: 22

Six different versions of Judge are among the 40 best home run hitters in baseball this year. He has 55 homers and the Tigers – the entire team – have 84. The 55 home runs mean Judge is having one of the nine greatest home run seasons in American League history. Here’s the leaderboard:

1. Roger Maris, 1961 Yankees: 61
2. Babe Ruth, 1927 Yankees: 60
3. Babe Ruth, 1921 Yankees: 59
4. Jimmie Foxx, 1932 Athletics: 58
5. Hank Greenberg, 1938 Tigers: 58
6. Alex Rodriguez, 2002 Rangers: 57
7. Ken Griffey Jr., 1997 Mariners: 56
8. Ken Griffey Jr., 1998 Mariners: 56
9. Aaron Judge, 2022 Yankees: 55 and counting
10. Several tied with 54, including A-Rod with the 2007 Yankees

Judge now holds the franchise record for homers by a right-handed batter in a season, and only Foxx, Greenberg, and A-Rod (with the Rangers) have hit more homers as a righty in a season in AL history. Also, Judge is now the all-time leader with 114 home runs at the new Yankee Stadium. Mark Teixeira had 113 and Robbie Cano is a distant third with 82.

With the way things have been going, Judge might pass Foxx and Greenberg by the end of the weekend, giving him the greatest home run season by a righty hitter in AL history. The Yankees have 24 games remaining. Is it possible Judge gets to 70 homers? I spent like four months telling myself he won’t get to 60, that’s just too many, and now it looks inevitable. Who’s to say he can’t hit 70? Why not?

The Twins intentionally walked Judge four times in the last three games and had Cabrera made an out rather than walked off Game 1 on Wednesday, Judge would’ve been intentionally walked again leading off the 13th inning. It’s amazing he hasn’t been intentionally walked more given the lineup around him. His 15 intentional walks lead baseball, but really, only 15?

This is where analytics and the modern game might help Judge because intentional walks are generally frowned upon. There are only 0.10 intentional walks per game this year. It was 0.14 last year, when pitchers still hit, and 0.20 as recently as 2017. It was 0.29 in 2006. The 2019 Astros issued one intentional walk all season, and it was to Juan Soto in the World Series.

The Yankees have series remaining with the Orioles (second fewest intentional walks issued), Rays (tied for fourth fewest), and Brewers (tied for fourth fewest). That’s nearly half their remaining games. If those teams stick to their guns and pitch to Judge because the run expectancy tables say intentional walks are bad, maybe he can get to 70? It’s wild this is now a possibility.

It kinda snuck up on me but the Yankees only have four home series remaining this season:

• Sept. 9th to 11th vs. Rays
• Sept. 20th and 21st vs. Pirates
• Sept. 22nd to 25th vs. Red Sox
• Sept. 30th to Oct. 2nd vs. Orioles

Ben Clemens ran simulations and the Sept. 26th to 28th series in Toronto is when Judge is most likely to hit his 61st homer, though those home series against the Red Sox and Orioles are right there. I think we all want him to get No. 61 – and No. 62! –  at home so we can cheer our guy and they can do an on-field celebration and all that. But whenever it happens, it happens.

IKF at 3B

Twin for a day Isiah Kiner-Falefa hitting one homer in his first 119 games, then hitting two homers in a four-game series against the Twins – including a grand slam! – is the most Twins vs. Yankees thing ever. We all bitched and moaned when Jordan Montgomery shut the Yankees down in St. Louis a few weeks ago, but imagine being on the other end of that Kiner-Falefa doubleheader?

(What’s worse, the fact the Yankees hit Kiner-Falefa cleanup Thursday, or that it was probably the right move given the available personnel?)

Kiner-Falefa had the game-tying single in Game 1 of Wednesday’s doubleheader and the grand slam in Game 2, and he moved back to third base seamlessly when Josh Donaldson went on the paternity list. He hadn’t played the hot corner since 2020. Should the Yankees just keep Kiner-Falefa at third? The argument in favor boils down to this:

• Kiner-Falefa won a Gold Glove and had his best offensive season as a third baseman.
• Oswald Peraza, who did some good things against the Twins, can stay at shortstop.

The argument against putting Kiner-Falefa at third says his standout season at the hot corner came in an unusual 60-game season, so let’s not make too much of it. Also, what happens with Donaldson? Would the Yankees move him to first base when the only thing he reliably contributes is third base defense? Donaldson has played 18 career innings at first base and none since 2018. I dunno, maybe he can do it?

“Not necessarily, but look, who thought we’d be in this position a couple days ago?” Aaron Boone told Dan Martin on Wednesday when asked about rearranging his infield down the stretch. “Anything is on the table.”

With DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo sidelined, the top first base options are Ronald Guzman and Marwin Gonzalez, and yikes. I’d rather throw Donaldson to the wolves and see whether he can handle first, allowing Peraza to stay in the lineup. Donaldson only has to do it for 6-7 innings a night. The Yankees can always pull him for defense in the late innings. Get him 3-4 at-bats, and if you have a lead, replace him defensively. The Yankees are absolutely this desperate.

I think the chances the Yankees do this are very small. When Donaldson returns from paternity leave Saturday, I think he’s going right back to third base and Kiner-Falefa is going right back to short, and we’ll go right back to being mad Peraza isn’t playing more. Nice few days for Kiner-Falefa at third base though. Even nicer doubleheader at the plate.

“Last year I was on a 100-loss team, so just to have an opportunity to make a postseason run on this team and be part of it means the world to me. So whatever it takes to win, that’s all I care about,” Kiner-Falefa told Bryan Hoch after the doubleheader. “I just figure as much work as I’ve put in at shortstop, it’s the one position where if you play it, you can move around.”

Cole approaching franchise strikeout record

It didn’t happen last season because of his August COVID stint and September hamstring injury, but Gerrit Cole is again making a run at the Yankees single-season strikeout record. He struck out a season high 14 batters in a dominant start Wednesday night. Here is the franchise’s single-season strikeout leaderboard:

1. Ron Guidry, 1978: 248
2. Gerrit Cole, 2021: 243
3. Jack Chesbro, 1904: 239
4. CC Sabathia, 2011: 230
5. Luis Severino, 2017: 230
6. David Cone, 1997: 222
7. Luis Severino, 2018: 220
8. Gerrit Cole, 2022: 218 and counting

Cole has four starts remaining if the Yankees stick with a normal five-man rotation and schedule. They have a bunch of off-days coming up though (three in the next 11 days) and could use them to rearrange their rotation and maximize Cole’s starts, which they might have to do to win the AL East. It would not be difficult to get Cole a fifth start, and I bet the Yankees do it.

So, 30 strikeouts in five starts is six strikeouts per start. Cole has struck out at least six batters in 22 of his 28 starts. If he only makes four starts, it’s 7.5 strikeouts per start, and Cole has struck out at least eight in 15 of his 28 starts. Also, Guidry’s 248 strikeouts are a shockingly low total for a franchise’s single-season record, especially for a franchise that has been around as long as the Yankees. Here are the lowest such records:

1. Rockies: 230 (German Marquez in 2018)
2. Orioles: 232 (Rube Waddell in 1908)
3. Royals: 244 (Dennis Leonard in 1974)
4. Yankees: 248 (Ron Guidry in 1978)
5. Rays: 252 (Chris Archer in 2015)

Cole catching Guidry is not a stone cold lock but it looks doable. Winning games is the priority, not individual records, but Cole’s strikeouts (like Judge’s homers) contribute to wins, and I’d like to see Cole break Guidry’s record this season. It’s about time that record fell.

Miscellany

Cabrera has played 13 games in right field and he’s already at +8 DRS. That seems a bit excessive, but hey, neat. Cabrera also has five outfield assists (video). Outfield assists can be a bit weird because the guys with the best arms usually don’t have many (Judge has only four) because opposing teams often won’t run on them. Teams keep running on Cabrera, which is understandable given his outfield inexperience, and he keeps answering the bell. The recent 0-for-25 skid was ugly, but a walk-off knock and a runner thrown out at the plate made for a pretty great afternoon Wednesday … According to win probability, it was only the second worst game by a Yankee this season, but woof, what a disastrous game for Ronald Guzman on Wednesday. He went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts and a 3-2-3 double play in extra innings in which he appeared to give something less than 100% effort while getting down the line (video). I’m not a “hustle all the time” guy, but that refers to jogging out routine grounders and stuff like that. Not bases loaded with no outs in extra innings. Guzman has been grinding away in Triple-A all year and throwing bullpen sessions in case he has to convert to pitching, and he gets down the line like that in his first big league game in 18 months? Yikes dude. Guzman has neither started a game nor taken an at-bat since that 3-2-3 double play and yeah, that’s about right. I’m in no rush to see him do anything other than play defense late.

3. Levine on Judge. Earlier this week Yankees president Randy Levine went on Jon Heyman’s and Joel Sherman’s podcast to discuss the state of the Yankees, and of course Aaron Judge came up. I’m not voluntarily listening to the podcast, but fortunately there’s a transcript of the important stuff. Here’s what Levine said about Judge:

“Like with all free agents, being a Yankee is really important,” Levine said. “It brings a lot that, maybe, a lot of other locations don’t. Now we’re talking about the home run chase with Babe Ruth and Roger Maris: two Yankees. So there’s no issue about, ‘Do we want Aaron Judge back?’ There’s no issue [with] ‘How much we value him.’ It’s a negotiation. What we’ll talk about with him and his representatives in the offseason is, ‘How do we keep him?’ And then it will be up to him to see, does he want to stay here [or] does he want to go someplace else? Is somebody offering him a better deal?”

…

“I think we’ll be extraordinarily competitive,’’ Levine said of the Yankees’ approach.

“We think Aaron Judge is an all-time Yankee. We think he’s a great player, beyond a great player. We think he’s a great person. That’s why we offered him the highest position player contract in the history of the Yankees. I admire him that he went out and took this upon his shoulders and we’ll sit down with him and hopefully figure it out. I think there’s no question we want him back and no question we value him.”

Levine also said “negotiations have to be in the realm of reality, not unreality.”

I have two thoughts on this. One, Levine didn’t say anything I wouldn’t have expected from a Yankees official. The brain trust won't come out and say “we’ll pay Judge whatever he wants.” You need to at least act like you’re willing to walk away to maintain leverage. As much as we want the Yankees to give Judge a blank check, it’s still a business and still a negotiation.

And two, this sounds like the Yankees laying the groundwork for a “look, we said we were going to make an ‘extraordinarily competitive’ offer and he didn’t take it” excuse when Judge leaves. And really, it’s a little of both. Levine stopped short of saying the Yankees will pay Judge whatever he wants and also made sure everyone knows the Yankees will try very hard to re-sign him, so if he leaves he looks like the bad guy. Levine’s comments are this, basically:

There are baseball reasons to not sign Judge long-term and we’ll have plenty of time to discuss them after the season. I think the reward outweighs the risk, but there are reasons to let Judge walk. Then again, Judge is important to the franchise (on and off the field) in a way no player has been since Derek Jeter. I honestly have no idea what the Yankees will do without him.

My fear is the Yankees put their entire offseason on hold until the Judge situation is resolved and miss out on a bunch of stuff in the meantime, which is what they did with DJ LeMahieu two years ago. I guess the worst case is treating re-signing Judge as the offseason. Three years ago the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole and did nothing else. They didn’t add another player to the 40-man roster from outside the organization. Re-signing Judge and calling it an offseason would be nuts.

Judge has already shown he’s willing to bet on himself. He rejected that monster extension and he’s so close to free agency now that why wouldn’t he shop around? There’s no reason not to see what’s out there, and I don’t get the sense Judge is in a rush to get something done. I could see his free agency dragging into January, which would really gum up the offseason.

We’ll see what happens. For now, I don’t think Levine said anything newsworthy. The Yankees are not going to come out and say they’re ready to give Judge a blank check, even if they are. All indications are the Yankees want to keep Judge and Judge wants to stay with the Yankees. That doesn’t mean it’ll be a smooth negotiation with a quick resolution.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Baseball America has begun their look at the top 10 prospects in each minor league and they covered the rookie Florida Complex League (subs. req’d) last week. I bring this up only to note RHP Luis Serna, this year’s breakout 18-year-old, is No. 3 on the FCL list. He is one spot ahead of Nationals OF Elijah Green, the No. 5 pick in this year’s draft. Serna’s really made the rise from “obscure deep sleeper” to “better prospect than the kid just taken No. 5 overall,” huh? And it’s not like Green was considered a reach. He was in the conversation to go No. 1 overall much of the spring. Also, Baseball America’s scouting report says Serna’s changeup has earned the “Airbender” tag, which is the nickname for Devin Williams’ changeup. Can’t double up on nicknames. That’s extremely lame. We gotta come up with something else for Serna’s changeup when he gets closer to the Bronx … Rule changes are coming in 2023. According to Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), MLB is expected to approve a pitch clock, a ban on infield shifts, and larger bases during a competition committee vote Friday. The pitch clock will be 15 seconds with the bases empty and 20 seconds with men on base, and the shift rules will require two infielders on each side of second base and all four infielders to have their feet on the infield dirt when the pitch is released. I love the pitch clock and I’m willing to give the ban on shifts a chance (mostly so people shut up about it). The rule changes come with a lot of fine print (there are limits on pitchers stepping off to reset the pitch clock, etc.) and I’m sure teams will find loopholes (put the left fielder in short right field to play the shift?), but I’m willing to give ‘em a try … According to Joe Doyle, the new draft lottery will take place during the Winter Meetings in San Diego. I’m sure it’ll air on MLB Network. The draft lottery covers the top six picks and even though the Yankees have played really crappy baseball the last few weeks, it is mathematically impossible for them to finish with one of the league’s six worst records (one of the nine worst records, to be exact). The lottery isn’t relevant to them this year, but if you’re a draft junky, we now know when the lottery will take place … And finally, Jeff Passan reports two teenage prospects in the Dominican Republic are suing the Angels for backing out of verbal contract agreements. The two players agreed to deals (worth $1.8M and $425,000) before they were eligible to sign (i.e. before their 16th birthday), then the Angels changed general managers and the new front office reneged on the agreements. Apparently there’s video evidence of the deals and laws in the Dominican Republic give greater weight to verbal agreements. This happens all the time – players agree to contracts years before they’re eligible to sign, then the team backs out when it finds a better way to spend the money – and now two players are suing over it. This could be a real headache for the Angels and MLB, and figures to only increase the league’s efforts for an international draft. We’ll see where it leads.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Andrew asks: As you have pointed out, the Montgomery for Bader swap has clearly hurt the Yankees in the regular season. However, assuming we can hang on for the division and make it into the playoffs relatively healthy, what level of offensive production Bader do you think will make the trade a smart move from Cashman as far as the Yankees playoff prospects are concerned? Will a continuation of his St. Louis offensive production be enough given the defensive upgrade at center?

Not so fun fact: Jordan Montgomery is already ahead of Harrison Bader on the Cardinals’ WAR leaderboard this season (+1.6 WAR in seven starts vs. +1.1 WAR in 72 games). Eventually Montgomery will give up some home runs (0.21 HR/9 and 3.2% HR/FB with St. Louis), but maybe not? The NL Central is pretty lousy and the season’s almost over.

Anyway, given the state of the Yankees, they need Bader more than they need Montgomery right now. The pitching has been more than fine. The offense has been dreadful. They need bats, and it’s fair to wonder how much Bader will contribute with the stick. His last three seasons (full-size image):

The three-year totals are solid but those are three different hitters, no? Bader was essentially a three true outcomes guy during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. In 2021, he hit for some power but not a ton. And before getting hurt this year, Bader was a put the ball in play speed guy. He’s cut his strikeouts (good!) while sacrificing walks and hard contact (bad!).

Which one is the real Bader? The most recent information is the most relevant information, though it’s fair to wonder whether the foot injury hurt his offensive production this year. Look at DJ LeMahieu. If you don’t have a strong base underneath you, you can’t drive the ball. Then again, if Bader’s foot was that much of a problem, would he go 15-for-17 stealing bases?

What Bader needs to do in the postseason to justify the trade is difficult to answer because all it takes is one or two swings in October to be valuable. Aaron Boone positively stunk in the 2003 postseason (.170/.196/.302 and 24 wRC+), so much so that he lost the starting third base job, but he is forever a legend thanks to one swing.

Would Bader having a 2003 Boone postseason run make the trade worth it? In the aggregate, probably not, no, but we’d also love the guy forever with one or two signature moments. At this point Bader has to have a big postseason – either by being consistently productive or having one or two enormous hits – to justify the trade. Trading for an injured dude who then stinks it up in October would only make the trade look even worse.

The offensive bar at the non-Aaron Judge outfield spots is on the floor, so it won’t take much for Bader to be an upgrade. Come back as the 93 wRC+ guy he was before the injury and yeah, that’s better than what the Yankees have. I would be underwhelmed, but it would qualify as an upgrade, particularly if the defense remains elite post-foot injury. So, I think Bader being the guy he was before the injury through the postseason makes the trade worth it. Get 2020-21 Bader back, and that’s a win in my book.

Bader is in a difficult spot through no fault of his own. He didn’t force the Yankees to trade for him while on the injured list, it’s not his fault the guy he was traded for went on the best five-week stretch of his career immediately after the trade, and it’s not his fault the offense has collapsed and the Yankees desperately need him to hit. Even a 110 wRC+ with elite defense might feel like a letdown given what Montgomery is doing, though it would be incredibly valuable and make the trade worthwhile.

Brian asks: Who is the opening day SS?

Good question. I think we can rule out the big name free agents: Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner. Maybe a total collapse (and/or a new GM?) pushes them into action, but if the Yankees didn’t spend on a shortstop last offseason (especially when Correa was willing to take a short-term deal), then I don’t see them doing it this offseason, with Oswaldo Peraza and Anthony Volpe that much closer to the big leagues.

The Yankees already have a stopgap in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, so I think we can rule out the smaller name free agents too (Elvis Andrus, Jose Iglesias, etc.). A trade? Eh, maybe something comes across the desk that is too good to pass up, but I’d bet against it. Realistically, I see four options for the 2023 Opening Day shortstop, and I’d rank them in this order based on likelihood:

1. Kiner-Falefa
2. Peraza
3. A different stopgap (Andrus, Iglesias, etc.)
4. Volpe

The fact Kiner-Falefa was the starting shortstop even after Peraza was called up* leads me to believe he was brought in to be the stopgap until Volpe is ready, not until Peraza is ready. I could be completely wrong about this – and I hope I am – but what am I supposed to think when Peraza sat on the bench behind Kiner-Falefa at a time when the Yankees needed offense?

* That was the case initially. We’ll see what happens when Josh Donaldson returns from the paternity list and the Yankees have three players for two spots on the left side of the infield. Maybe Peraza's last few days have earned him a longer look.

Volpe is 11-for-25 (.440) with two homers in six Triple-A games and I think the Yankees should call him up. The offense is woefully short with several important players on the injured list for the foreseeable future. It would be hard to convince me Volpe isn’t one of the best 13-14 healthy position players in the organization. Call him up and put the best team on the field, I say.

If the Yankees do that, Volpe could absolutely play his way into the Opening Day shortstop job. Until they actually call him up, I’m going to assume he won’t get that chance, and will remain in Triple-A. The Yankees value Triple-A as a developmental tool but they don't have a blanket policy in which a prospect has to spend X games there. Gleyber Torres played only 37 Triple-A games spanning two seasons and sandwiched around Tommy John surgery before being called up in 2018.

The Yankees love Volpe and I think he’s the type of prospect they’d consider bringing up after only a short stint in Triple-A. But the Opening Day shortstop? Ahead of Kiner-Falefa and Peraza? Eh, I think that’s a bit of a stretch. I think they’d give Volpe  a month in Triple-A at least. If they’re anything less than 100% certain he’s ready, they’ll go with their other options.

Are the new service time rules enough to push the Yankees to make Volpe their Opening Day shortstop? Yeah, maybe. He’d get a full year of service time if he finishes first or second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, and he could bring back a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick at some point too. Of course, the Yankees could also keep Volpe down until next September, and all that stuff would then roll over into 2024.

My guess – I emphasize this is just a guess – is Kiner-Falefa starts next season at short and Volpe finishes next season at short. What that means for Peraza, I don’t know, and when exactly Volpe gets called up, I don’t know either. If Volpe is not the starting shortstop (or even the starting second or third baseman) at the end of next season, it likely means something has gone wrong.

Daniel asks: Do you think Randy Levine's recent comments stating Cashman never approaching the powers that be about money to sign a big SS free agent last off-season is the Yanks way of setting Cashman up as the scapegoat for if-most likely when-they crash and burn at the end of the season?

During his recent appearance on Jon Heyman’s and Joel Sherman’s podcast, Levine said passing on the big name free agent shortstops “wasn’t about the luxury tax, that was a baseball operations decision that (Brian Cashman) and his people made, you’d have to ask him.”

I’d say Levine setting Cashman up to be the scapegoat is looking too far ahead. I think he was shifting blame to Cashman right now, while the Yankees are collapsing (the podcast was recorded before the Twins series). You think Levine is going to let ownership or himself take the heat for the shortstop situation amid a potentially historic collapse? No chance. Cashman is there to shoulder the blame in situations like this, and the fact they can use those comments to scapegoat him after the season is icing on the cake.

I can totally buy Cashman passing on the top shortstops (he annoyingly has a thing for passing on the top of the market these days, with few exceptions), but I also think if the Yankees were maintaining their 116-win pace, Levine wouldn’t be so quick to say it was Cashman’s decision to pass on those shortstops. He’d call it an organizational decision and make sure the higher-ups got a piece of the credit. I think Levine’s comments were about right now, not scapegoating Cashman after the season, though they conveniently serve that purpose too.

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