September 6th, 2022: Benintendi, Judge, Peraza, Holmes, LeMahieu

The seasons change, the players come and go, and we all get a little older each year, but the one thing remains the same, and that is the Yankees beating the Twins. They are the elixir that cures all ills. Monday’s win improved the Yankees to 112-39 (.742) against Minnesota since the start of the Ron Gardenhire era in 2002, postseason included. That’s a 120-win pace in a 162-game season. The Twins came to town at exactly the right time. Let’s get to today’s post. I apologize it’s shorter than usual, but it was Labor Day Weekend, so I took it a little easy.

1. Benintendi injured. The trade deadline of our discontent got a little worse Friday. Andrew Benintendi fractured the hook of the hamate bone in his right wrist taking a swing, and will have surgery Tuesday. He had the same injury in college and was under the impression the hamate bone was removed during surgery, but apparently not. That’s how things are going for the Yankees right now. Their players are breaking bones they didn’t know were still in their bodies.

“I’m meeting with some doctors in New York, and we’ll go from there. We’ll just take it day by day at this point, I guess. I’ll need surgery at some point and get that done as soon as possible,” Benintendi told Bryan Hoch. “When I went through this before, it was right around a couple of weeks. We’ll see what happens. Obviously I want to get back out there in time for the latter part of the season and then hopefully the playoffs. It’s all too early to say right now.”

Hamate surgery typically comes with a 4-6 week recovery time but there have been rare cases where a player returned in as little as 2-3 weeks*. Like I said though, those are rare. According to the BP Recovery Dashboard (subs. req’d), the average time missed for hamate surgery is 42.5 days dating back to 2016. So yes, there’s a chance Benintendi returns during the regular season. The more likely outcome is he’s out until the ALCS, if the Yankees make it that far.

* Also, hamate surgery has a tendency to sap power even after the player completes his rehab and is cleared to return. Benintendi isn’t a home run guy, but you still need to drive the ball.

The state of the Yankees is such that the corner outfielder hitting .254/.331/.404 (111 wRC+) in pinstripes suffered a major injury and it is a devastating loss. That’s not fair to Benintendi, he did hit .303/.344/.483 (136 wRC+) in his last 24 games, but ideally he is a complementary player more than a centerpiece. For the recent Yankees, he was the second best hitter in the lineup.

With Benintendi presumably out for the season, the Yankees badly need their struggling veterans (DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres especially) to get going at the plate, even moreso than before. They also need Harrison Bader to get healthy and contribute right away*. He is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment next Tuesday and he can’t just come back and be a defensive specialist. The Yankees need offense.

* How do the Yankees line up their outfield when Bader returns? The master plan had Benintendi in left, Bader in center, and Aaron Judge in right. Do they stick Oswaldo Cabrera in left despite one game of experience there in the minors? Judge has never played left in the big leagues. Do they put Bader in left and keep Judge in center and Cabrera in right? Hopefully we learn the answer to this question fairly soon.

Benintendi is no one’s idea of a power hitter but good gravy, the Yankees have zero lefty thump right now. They have to hope Rizzo returns soon and stays healthy, because I’m pretty sure their best lefty power hitter is currently Cabrera, and he’s yet to go deep as a big leaguer and is in a 1-for-24 (.042) skid. Aaron Hicks? Marwin Gonzalez? Can’t count on them. Matt Carpenter is still in a walking boot, so he’s not close to returning either.

Regardless of power potential, the left field options while Benintendi is sidelined aren’t great. Hicks hasn’t hit all season and especially lately, Tim Locastro is Tim Locastro, and the Yankees might pull Brett Gardner out of retirement before giving Estevan Florial an extended look. Hicks is the best bet to give you an OBP that starts with a 3. Florial is the best defender. Locastro is the epitome of a fifth outfielder.

"We'll just mix and match," Aaron Boone told Hoch about the left field situation. "Hopefully, it creates an opportunity for someone that kicks the door in."

Benintendi’s injury ratchets up the degree of difficulty on the season a bit, and at a time when the offense is Judge Aaron and his court of jesters. It’s a tough break (there weren’t any indications Benintendi was having wrist trouble, sometimes these things just happen) and that’s baseball. It’s just another thing the Yankees have to overcome this month.

2. Weekend thoughts. Gary Sanchez hitting the longest homer by a visiting player at the new Yankee Stadium (473 feet!) feels appropriate. Also, Gary going deep to make the trade look bad and the Yankees winning anyway is the best possible outcome, as far as I’m concerned. What a bad, bad trade. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.

The bare minimum in Tampa

The Yankees went to Tampa this past weekend and cleared the lowest of bars by not getting swept. After looking as flat as flat can be Friday and Saturday, they eked out a win Sunday, and it was a two-game swing. Blow that game and the AL East lead is down to three games. Instead, the Yankees left Tampa up five games. The updated division odds:

“It does feel bigger,” Aaron Boone told Dan Martin after Sunday’s nail-biter. “With what we’re going through, to get a big, tough win on the road against a team we’re fighting with is huge at this time of year. Hopefully this is something that can be settling for some guys as we start a big homestand.”

The AL East race is far from over – need I remind you the Yankees will see the Rays again this weekend? – and, at this point, we have to keep an eye on the Mariners too. Seattle is essentially tied with the Rays in the standings. Blow the AL East and the Yankees may fall into the second Wild Card spot, which means going on the road in the Wild Card Series. The relevant standings:

1. Yankees: Yankees: 81-54
2. Rays: 75-58 (5 GB) (first Wild Card team by percentage points)
3. Mariners: 76-59 (5 GB)
4. Blue Jays: 75-59 (5.5 GB) (third Wild Card team)
5. Orioles: 71-64 (10 GB)

I gotta say, falling into the second Wild Card spot and having to go to Seattle to face Luis Castillo in the Wild Card Series would be incredible … theater? schadenfreude? tragicomedy? I don’t know what, but it would certainly be something. Kinda like facing Cliff Lee and the Rangers in the 2010 ALCS, though the Yankees at least had a deal in place for Lee that year.

Anyway, the Yankees control their destiny despite their recent efforts. The AL East lead is big enough that losing two of three in Tampa was not a truly disastrous outcome. It wasn’t a good outcome, but it wasn’t devastating either. Do it again next weekend, and the Yankees will have the tiebreaker over the Rays, which could be important with the way things are going.

One-Man Army update

Is there an award higher than MVP they can give Aaron Judge? I don’t know what more this guy can do for the Yankees. The Yankees scored three runs in three games in Tampa and he scored all three: two solo homers, plus he doubled and then aggressively took third on a ground ball to short to set up a sac fly. ESPN says he’s the first Yankee to score every run in a series since Babe Ruth in 1929 (minimum three games and two runs scored).

“What more can you say?” Boone told Martin about Judge after Sunday’s win. “We need to get other guys going. Aaron, in every aspect, set the tone. A homer, the slide to third base to score on a sacrifice fly. He’s playing on an incredible level.”

Judge went 11-for-33 (.333) with five homers and a .488 OBP during the 10-game road trip. The rest of the Yankees went 37-for-262 (.141) with three homers and a .252 OBP, and keep in mind they padded those stats during the 13-run game in Oakland. Judge gets pitched around so much these days …

… that he gets maybe one or two pitches to hit a night, sometimes zero, yet the pitches he does get to hit wind up in the seats, or doing something to help the Yankees win. Monday’s homer was Judge’s 54th of the season. That's the most by any player since Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 in 2017, and the most by an American League player since Jose Bautista hit 54 in 2010.

“Man, it just gets more and more amazing what he’s doing. I mean, it really does,” Boone told Betelhem Ashame after Monday’s win. “Doesn’t get pitched to much and (is) just ready when it is in there. It’s getting hard to put into words what he’s doing. Just a special season he’s in the midst of.”

The 54 homers tie 2007 Alex Rodriguez for the most by a righty hitter in Yankees history, and only Roger Maris (61 in 1961) and Ruth (59 in 1921 and 60 in 1927) have hit more in a single season in franchise history. The 2022 MLB home run leaderboard is comical:

1. Aaron Judge: 54
2. Kyle Schwarber: 36
3. Austin Riley: 35
4. Paul Goldschmidt: 34
5. Mookie Betts: 33
6. Shohei Ohtani: 32 (second most in the AL)

Judge has 18 – 18! – more home runs than anyone else. The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 on the home run leaderboard is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 48. The last player to lead the league by as many as 18 homers was Ruth in 1924, when he hit 46 and several players tied for second with 27. That was the year Ruth outhomered eight of the other 15 teams.

Judge has batted leadoff 10 times this season, including the final two games in Tampa, and he’s hit three leadoff home runs. Only seven players have more leadoff homers this year and they’re all actual leadoff hitters (Mookie, Jose Altuve, George Springer, etc.). “My job at the top of the lineup is just trying to get on base for the guys behind me,” Judge told Hoch.

Putting Judge at leadoff this weekend was an obvious “he’s our only offense, so let’s get him as many at-bats as possible” move and I’m totally cool with it. I wish the Yankees would stick with it a little longer, in fact. I get he’ll likely hit with fewer men on base, but who else is actually getting on base? When Andrew Benintendi was healthy he could hit leadoff, but he’s not. Just give Judge the most at-bats.

Anyway, Judge is amazing no matter where the Yankees put him in the lineup, and he has gone above and beyond to prop this team up. The Yankees are an extremely bad 11-20 in their last 31 games and I can’t imagine how much worse it would be without Judge doing this. I’ve never seen a single Yankee be so important to the team’s success. He is Atlas.

“Every single day I show up to work ready to go and do whatever it takes to get our team a win,” Judge told Ashame. “If that’s me moving a guy over, driving a guy in, making a play on defense, that’s what I’m focused on. All the individual awards, accolades, stats you get throughout the year, it’s all based on how well you help the team out. So if I’m not out there helping the team every single day, the stats and all that stuff doesn’t show up.”

Peraza called up, sits

What am I supposed to think when the Yankees call up one of their top prospects, sit him twice in his first four games on the roster, and start him at his secondary position in one of his two starts? This isn’t Mike Lowell being stuck behind World Series MVP Scott Brosius. Oswald Peraza is behind Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who is at best middle of the pack among the league's full-time shortstops.

“He’s such a big part of what we’re doing and I expect him to be in the middle of everything,’’ Boone told Martin about Kiner-Falefa after the Peraza call up, conveniently omitting what they’re doing is blowing the largest division lead in baseball history. “The best thing about Isiah is he wants to win and is willing to do anything it takes and be prepared. He’ll continue to play a lot.”

The Yankees have three good to great upper level infield prospects and one is in Triple-A, one is on the MLB bench, and the other is playing right field in deference to Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson on the left side of the infield. If the front office weren’t okay with Peraza being a half-time player, he wouldn’t be a half-time player, so this is an organizational decision.

When the Yankees don’t think a prospect is going to be a player, they’re not subtle about it, and they don’t even give the player the opportunity to prove them wrong. Look at Estevan Florial. He was on the bench against a righty in favor of Tim Locastro on Monday! It’s way too early to say Peraza is in the same boat, but how do you call him up just to sit him when the offense is struggling as much as it is? Not even gonna try one (1) lineup change amid all this? Groan.

(Donaldson is going on the paternity list any day now. I guess the Yankees will put Kiner-Falefa at third and Peraza at short while Donaldson is away? Kiner-Falefa hasn't played third since 2020. Kiner-Falefa at short with Marwin Gonzalez at third and Peraza on the bench would be beyond absurd. Also, as an employee in New York State, Donaldson is entitled to 12 weeks paternity leave. He should take all 12. You can never get this precious time with your newborn back Josh!)

Holmes fired up

Nothing comes easy these days, so of course the tying run was at third and the winning run was at second when Clay Holmes closed out Sunday’s win. The called strike three to Yandy Diaz to end the game looked borderline at best, though I’d argue it was too close to take with two strikes. Remember, the broadcast strike zone box is an estimation and nothing more (video):

“I thought it was a great pitch,” Holmes told Hoch after the game. “I haven’t really gone back and looked at it yet, but I thought it was a good sinker down. I’m not sure where it was, but I’m glad we got the call.”

Jose Trevino leads all catchers in every public framing metric (by a decent margin too) and that pitch right there is why the Yankees went out and traded for him. So he could steal strikes in big situations. What really stands out there is the 102. At 101.7 mph, it is the fastest pitch of Holmes’ career, and it’s not close. Look at the leaderboard:

1. 101.7 mph: Sept. 4th, 2022 vs. Yandy Diaz
2. 100.3 mph: June 22nd, 2022 vs. Yandy Diaz (maybe he just hates Yandy?)
3. 100.1 mph: June 26th, 2022 vs. Mauricio Dubon
4. 100.0 mph: June 2nd, 2022 vs. Shohei Ohtani
5. 100.0 mph: June 2nd, 2022 vs. Shohei Ohtani

The fastest pitch of his career by 1.4 mph. That’s nuts. The Yankees are struggling bad and Holmes was in the highest of high leverage spots, and he put everything he had into that 3-2 pitch. “I was just going to let it rip. If he was going to beat me, he was going to beat me on my best bullet. It came out pretty good,” Holmes told Hoch. Yeah, I’d say so.

Holmes did give up some loud contact that inning (he allowed five batted balls and all five were over 90 mph exit velocity) and it was certainly an escape job more than dominance, but a win is a win is a win. Props to Trevino for the frame job, props to Holmes for the execution, and props to Holmes again for throwing his hardest ever pitch (by 1.4 mph!) to secure a much-needed win.

Banged up LeMahieu

We might have to stop expecting DJ LeMahieu to contribute meaningfully down the stretch, huh. He is in a 2-for-38 (.053) skid and has hit .153/.222/.204 (24 wRC+) in the team’s last 30 games. Remember that ninth inning homer in the series finale in St. Louis (video)? That was LeMahieu’s last extra-base hit. It was Aug. 7th. The toe injury seems to be limiting him significantly.

"I don't think so,” Boone told Brendan Kuty when asked whether rest would help LeMahieu. “This is something that's probably going to be like an offseason kind of thing that kind of benefits him. But we'll keep monitoring it with him as far as just how he's doing. Try to continue to get him through this."

Boone also told Kuty the toe is sapping LeMahieu’s power and yeah, I’d say so. It’s been a month since his last extra-base hit and he’s running close to a 60% ground ball rate since then. There’s no ability to drive the baseball right now. Look at this (full-size image):

LeMahieu’s toe injury isn’t new. It’s been bothering him long enough that he received a cortisone shot during the All-Star break, according to Hoch. Leaving aside the fact the Yankees knew about LeMahieu’s toe, Anthony Rizzo’s career-long back issues, and Donaldson’s and Kiner-Falefa’s poor seasons and still didn’t add infield depth at the deadline, I’m not sure why we should expect LeMahieu’s bat to come around when it’s getting progressively worse, and he’s not healthy.

Things are getting to the point where, if the toe is hampering LeMahieu that much and his recent performance is more or less who he’s going to be the rest of the season, the Yankees have to consider putting him on the injured list. He’s not helping them at all, so get a healthy player in there. This isn’t Giancarlo Stanton still trying to find his timing. This is a player physically unable to perform. One the manager suggested will not return to full health until the offseason.

(Of course, the risk here is you put LeMahieu on the injured list and Rizzo’s back continues to act up, and the Yankees are stuck playing Gonzalez at first. I know he homered Monday, but no one wants Marwin in the lineup everyday.)

I’m not sure why I’m wasting my internet breath. The Yankees will obviously stick with LeMahieu like they stuck with him until the hernia became too much last year, and hope he resumes hitting (LeMahieu performed much better through the hernia last year than he is through the toe this year). This is very bad though. LeMahieu has been awful the last month and especially lately, the toe is a tangible reason to believe it’s more than the ebbs and flows of the season.

Miscellany

Excellent start by Frankie Montas on Sunday. A Kiner-Falefa error and some long at-bats limited him to five innings, but one hit and no walks with seven strikeouts works. Montas had a season high 23 swings and misses, including nine misses on 16 swings against the splitter. He was truly dominant. Let’s hope that wasn’t just his “Andrew Heaney against the Red Sox” game, and is a sign of better things to come … Stanton fouled a pitch into his foot Monday and limped off the field, but x-rays came back negative, Boone told Lindsey Adler. I’d bet on him sitting Tuesday. Stanton is 4-for-38 (.105) without an extra-base hit since returning from the injured list, and he’s getting blown away by fastballs. He’s missed with 32.7% of his swings against fastballs during that time, which is astronomical. The MLB average is 20.2% and last year that number was 25.8% for Stanton. His timing is completely out of whack. Giancarlo also has a knack for looking like he belongs in Triple-A one at-bat, then hitting a ball off the scoreboard and locking it in in his next at-bat. Still, the Yankees really needed Stanton to come back and hit right away, and he hasn’t. He’s done the opposite. He’s added to the offensive woes … And finally, Rizzo has not played since last Wednesday and he won’t work out – not play, just work out – until this Wednesday at the earliest. He received an epidural for his achy back over the weekend and we’re well into “this is dumb, just put him on the injured list and stop playing shorthanded” territory. Of course, you can only backdate injured list stints three days, so Rizzo would not be eligible to return before Monday. So the Yankees will continue to play down a man. Sigh. If Rizzo opts out after the season, the Yankees should probably just thank him for the last 1.5 years, and let him go. Giving multiple years to a 33-year-old with a history of back issues that seem to be worsening is a recipe for regret.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)