August 25th, 2022: Benintendi, Peralta, Bunts, 2023 Schedule, Mailbag

The Subway Series was fun this year, no? All four games were close and exciting. The Citi Field series was the first time the Yankees and Mets met while both being in sole possession of first place, and the Yankee Stadium series was the first time they met while each being at least 25 games over .500. I’d be up for a rematch in October. That would rule. Anyway, here is Friday morning’s post Thursday afternoon because the Yankees are out on the West Coast and I’m not waiting out a late night game. We’ll recap the Athletics series (and Nestor Cortes' groin injury once we know the severity, plus I don't have time to write about it today) next time.

1. Weekday thoughts. For the first time since taking two of three in Cleveland in early July, the Yankees won a series against a team with a winning record this week. They swept a two-game set against the Mets and have won three straight games overall. All three wins were by a 4-2 score too. The 2022 Yankees are the first team in American League history to win three straight games by exactly a 4-2 score. There’s your useless factoid of the day. A few thoughts on the last few games.

Benintendi awakens

It was only a matter of time until Andrew Benintendi’s high contact bat woke up and he went on a hot streak, and that hot streak is here. Benintendi hit the game-winning homer Sunday, drove in the game-winning run (plus an insurance run) Monday, and then drove in the game-winning run Tuesday (video). He is 18-for-58 (.310) with nine extra-base hits in his last 16 games.

“Benny is a hitter. He’s going to hit. I don’t worry about him so much,” Aaron Boone told Joe Trezza following Sunday’s game. “But still, he’s coming to a new team at the deadline, getting settled, and we’re going through this as a team. Even though he’s very low-key, it’s still a complete change in environment. Everyone takes some settling in. The at-bats have really started to pick up here.”

I don’t want to pick on Joey Gallo but it’s not unreasonable to say Benintendi has done more to help the Yankees in the last few days than Gallo did all season. Here are their best games this year (as Yankees) according to win probability added:

1. Benintendi vs. Blue Jays: +0.308 WPA on Aug. 21st
2. Benintendi vs. Mets: +0.164 WPA on Aug. 22nd
3. Gallo vs. Royals: +0.148 WPA on April 30th
4. Benintendi vs. Mariners: +0.142 WPA on Aug. 8th
5. Benintendi vs. Royals: +0.134 WPA on July 29th
6. Benintendi vs. Mets: +0.124 WPA on Aug. 23rd
7. Gallo vs. Cubs: +0.121 WPA on June 12th
8. Gallo vs. Tigers: +0.113 WPA on June 5th

As much as we’ve talked about calling up Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe, the Yankees are only going as far as the veterans take them. They need the guys on the roster to perform to snap out of this extended funk. Benintendi’s hitting now, Aaron Judge is launching balls halfway up the bleachers again, and Giancarlo Stanton returns Thursday. That’s a good start.

Next the Yankees need to get DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo going. They’ve been pretty quiet since their day-to-day injuries earlier this month (LeMahieu’s toe, Rizzo’s back). Gleyber Torres too. He gets some knocks here and there, but he’s still having too many noncompetitive at-bats. Getting Benintendi on track was a top priority and it’s happened, and he’s winning games now. Not a moment too soon either. Hooray for finally getting some production out of left field.

“Obviously when you come here you think about that short right field. It’s hard not to think about and I think my thought was too far to the right side, like almost dead right field opposed to right-center field. In the back of my mind I was thinking about it. I shouldn’t have been. But now I’m just trying to think about hitting it in the middle of the field, almost left-center,” Benintendi told Kristie Ackert earlier this week. “... I don’t want to use that as an excuse. I’ll just say I feel comfortable here, I have settled in and I am happy I am contributing.”

The return of Wandy’s slider

Wandy Peralta has a new toy. Well, no. It’s an old toy he’s playing with again. Wandy usually spams hitters with changeups (remember when he threw Freddie Freeman five straight changeups after falling behind in the count 3-1 with the bases loaded and a one-run lead?) but now he’s mixing in a slider. He threw Francisco Lindor three straight sliders Tuesday (video) before putting him away with changeups.

“He executed every pitch,” Boone told Brendan Kuty about Peralta’s save. “Got ahead. Couple of good sliders. He kept making pitches. It’s not the greatest match up there, flipping him around. But just really kind of up against it there and he came in and executed and he was able to outlast him there and just a great job of execution from strike one to the last pitch.”

As noted, the slider is not new. There was a point earlier in Wandy’s career where the slider was his most frequently used pitch, and as recently as right before the trade last year, he threw the slider more often than the changeup. It wasn’t until Peralta got to the Yankees that he put the slider in his pocket, and went heavy on changeups. Now the slider is coming back.

In his last 15 appearances Peralta has thrown 65 sliders. He threw only 47 sliders in his first 32 appearances this year, and 58 sliders in his 46 appearances as a Yankee last year, so yeah, this is a definite thing. And it’s not like Wandy wasn’t getting it done with sinkers and changeups. He had a 2.27 ERA (2.78 FIP) with a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 54.5% ground ball rate in the first half.

Does Wandy need the slider? I don’t know, but generally speaking, you have to continue evolving to stay in this league (unless you’re Mariano Rivera). Peralta has changed the scouting report a bit. No longer can hitters sit sinker/changeup. Now they have to worry about the slider too, even righties. Wandy throws everything to everyone. He’s a sneaky fun pitcher (and supposedly the funniest guy on the team behind the scenes). Glad he escaped that jam Tuesday night.

“Thank god,” Peralta jokingly told Kuty when asked about getting that final out Tuesday. “The game is on the line but you’ve just got to execute and things worked out for us tonight. You can’t really pay attention to the situation or whatever is going on. You’ve got to execute your pitches. You’ve got to get the job done.”

The Bronx Bunters

The offense has been struggling (four runs in three straight games qualifies as a breakout) and, in an effort to get things going, the Yankees have broken out the sacrifice bunt. They successfully bunted Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. And by successfully, I mean they scored in the inning. I don’t mean they simply got the bunt down. That’s less than half the battle.

• Sunday: Marwin Gonzalez bunted Jose Trevino to second in the seventh inning of a 2-2 game. Benintendi followed with his two-run homer.
• Monday: Marwin bunted Isiah Kiner-Falefa to third in the fifth inning with a 2-0 lead. Benintendi then doubled in Kiner-Falefa.
• Tuesday: Kiner-Falefa bunted Oswaldo Cabrera to second in the seventh inning of a 2-2 game. Benintendi singled in Cabrera two batters later.

Three sac bunts in three games after three in the previous 56 games, and eight in the first 121 games of the season. It’s the first time the Yankees have laid down a sac bunt in three straight games since 2015. And remember, Kiner-Falefa had that squeeze bunt to score the go-ahead run in Boston two weeks ago. Bunting, it’s a thing again!

Obviously the bunts are tied to personnel. I praised Gonzalez a few weeks ago and he is 0-for-25 since, so blame me for his slump. Marwin hasn’t hit much the last few years and oftentimes the most productive thing he can do is bunt the runner up. Kiner-Falefa too. Did you know he’s tied for 12th in the league in double plays? Hitting so many weak grounders comes with a price.

I think the recent uptick in bunts has more to do with situations finding certain players than it is a concerted effort to bunt more. I mean, what are you supposed to do when Gonzalez bats with a runner on base and no outs in the late innings of a close game (other than pinch-hit)? The guys it is okay to bunt with are the guys bunting. I don’t think this is a philosophical shift. Just seems like the right situations have found the right guys lately.

Miscellany

We can laugh about it now but what in the world was that relay Tuesday night? Jeff McNeil shot a rocket into the gap and he and Pete Alonso wandered too far off second and third, respectively, yet Torres froze and Alonso scored the game-tying run. Look where everyone was when Gleyber received the throw and turned around to see what was happening on the infield:

What is Gleyber doing? What is Alonso doing? What is McNeil doing? What is Kiner-Falefa doing? Is he the backup cutoff man or something? Why isn’t he at second base? The Yankees have unquestionably improved their defense and base running this season, but they still do really dumb things now and then … Clarke Schmidt pitched well overall Tuesday, but, in the ninth inning, he went from 1-2 to a walk against Tyler Naquin and 0-2 to a walk against Starling Marte. They took some pretty good breaking balls just off the plate. Makes me think Schmidt might have been tipping his pitches. Some of those takes looked a little too comfortable in two-strike counts … Frankie Montas had his best start as a Yankee the other day, including a dominant stretch in the middle innings where he struck out five straight batters, though we still haven’t seen him at his best. His sinker command has been pretty crummy. His sinker locations (full-size image):

The sinker is sailing in on righties and away from lefties. Historically, Montas has been at his best when he peppers the bottom of the zone (or even just below the zone) with the sinker. When he does that, the sinker and splitter look the same out of his hand. Tuesday was a solid outing and a step in the right direction. Once Montas gets his sinker command locked in, he’ll really take off … And finally, it’s hard to believe Cabrera played only three career games in right field in the minors (all this year) before being called up, no? He looks very comfortable out there. Oswaldo robbed a homer Friday and then threw a runner out at the plate Tuesday (video). He also worked a bases loaded walk after falling behind in the count 1-2. First Yankee to get his first career RBI on a bases loaded walk since Mariano Rivera. True story. Cabrera’s fun. Hopefully his bat really gets going once he runs into a homer and gets that monkey off his back.

2. 2023 schedule released. MLB released the 2023 schedule earlier this week and, for the first time ever, every team will play at least one series against every other team. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement includes a new, more balanced schedule with no rotating interleague play. Here’s what the new schedule means for the Yankees:

• 52 divisional games (down from 76): That’s 13 games against each of the other four AL East teams. Seven at home and six on the road, or vice versa.
• 64 intraleague games (down from 66): Against the AL Central and AL West, the Yankees will play four teams seven times and six teams six times.
• 46 interleague games (up from 20): Four games against the Mets plus one three-game series against each of the other 14 NL teams.

Can all five AL Central teams finish with a sub-.500 record with the more balanced schedule? I believe in them! In all seriousness, those 19 games against division rivals get tedious (doesn’t it feel like the Yankees and Blue Jays have played 50 times this season?), so I’m cool with scaling back on those and playing more interleague games. Waiting three years to see every team in the other league is a bit lame. One series a year is just right.

“The new balanced schedule will feature all 30 Clubs playing each other for at least one series in 2023,” MLB executive Chris Marinak said in a statement. “This new format creates more consistent opponent matchups as Clubs compete for Postseason berths, particularly in the recently expanded Wild Card round. Additionally, this fan-friendly format provides fans with the opportunity to see more opponent matchups, with a particular focus on dramatically expanding our most exciting Interleague matchups, and offers more national exposure to the star players throughout our game.”

Opening Day is Thursday, March 30th, and the Yankees will open at home against the Giants. So that means Aaron Judge will begin the new season in the Bronx even after Hal Steinbrenner refuses to up his offer, and Judge signs with his hometown-ish team. Kidding! Or am I? Here is the full 2023 schedule (full-size image, site link):

Back-to-back interleague series to begin the season, eh? I guess that was bound to happen one of these years with the new schedule format, and it just so happened to be the first year. That seven-day, six-game West Coast road trip against the Mariners and Dodgers at the end of May and start of June would make for a fun little baseball vacation. I’ve never been to T-Mobile Park. Maybe I should cross that one off the list next year.

The All-Star Game is in Seattle on Tuesday, July 11th, and the Yankees head to Colorado out of the break. Yankees All-Stars will go from the Bronx to Seattle to Denver to Anaheim in the span of nine days. The Yankees will play on Memorial Day (in Seattle) and on the Fourth of July (at home against the Orioles) next year. They weirdly had those two holidays off this season.

It’s far too early to know what the baseball landscape will look like in 13 months, but playing nine of the final 15 games against the Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Royals could be advantageous. Those three clubs figure to be pretty bad next year. If the Yankees are in a division or postseason race, that ostensibly soft part of the schedule could arrive at just the right time.

Anyway, there’s not much more to say about the schedule than that. It’s a schedule. I can only muster so many #takes. I’m looking forward to the new format with scaled back divisional play and more interleague play. A perfectly balanced schedule will probably never happen, but this is a step in that direction. It’s better than the status quo, I believe.

3. Rapid fire thoughts. Earlier this week Angels owner Arte Moreno announced he is exploring a potential sale of the team, and historically, when an owner says he’s exploring a potential sale, the team gets sold. Moreno just turned 76 and he bought the club from Disney for $180M in May 2003. If the Mariners and Phillies make the postseason this year, the Angels will have the longest postseason drought in baseball (since 2014), and they will have had Mike Trout in his prime for the entirety of that drought. Crazy. Anyway, Shohei Ohtani’s future will be a hot topic now. The Nationals are also up for sale and there’s some thought they traded Juan Soto now so the new owner wouldn’t have to come in and be the bad guy who makes that trade (since the team is bad and Soto seems set on testing free agency), making the club more appealing to potential owners. Could the same happen with Ohtani, who is a year away from free agency and has said repeatedly he wants to win? We have all offseason to discuss this, but everything is falling into place for this to be The Winter of Ohtani. The trade rumors will run rampant and there’s no reason to think the Yankees won’t be in the middle of them … And finally, players are beginning to commit to the 2023 World Baseball Classic, though no Yankees have yet (big leaguers or minor leaguers). Andy Pettitte will be there though. He will serve as Team USA’s pitching coach, it was announced earlier this week. Other than some volunteer work in amateur showcase events a few summers ago, Pettitte has no coaching experience. I don’t think he’s using this to get his foot back in the door (a guy like him doesn’t need to do the WBC to get a job in baseball). I think it’s just a fun thing he signed up to do for a few weeks next spring. We’ll see how it goes. Here’s what Team USA’s roster looks like at the moment.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Dan asks: Do you think trading Jordan Montgomery negatively impacted the clubhouse and could be attributed, however small it may have been, to the awful stretch they’re going through?

Yeah, it’s possible. The Brewers are in a bit of a tailspin of their own (8-12 since the trade deadline) and Eric Lauer called out the front office for the Josh Hader trade. "It didn't send us the right message from the upstairs people trying to say, like, 'We're doing this and we're trying to put you guys in the best position and we're trying to win right now with you guys.’ It seemed more of a, 'We're trying to develop for the future,” Lauer said earlier this week.

I could see Yankees players having a similar sentiment following the Montgomery trade. “We’re trying to win and you traded a starting pitcher for an outfielder who might not play this year? Are you trying to put us in the best position to succeed or what?” That kinda thing. It’s only natural to feel a letdown when a good player and a friend are traded away like that.

I have three things to say about this. First, the tailspin started before the Montgomery trade. The Yankees went 9-11 in the 20 games prior to the deadline and 22-18 in the 40 games prior to the deadline. They played .500-ish ball for an extended period of time before the Montgomery trade, and were gradually getting worse. It’s not like they were humming along at a 116-win pace, then bam, Montgomery got traded and they went in the tank. This was building for a while.

Second, if the Yankees are so upset about a trade – an always shocking yet fairly routine piece of baseball business – that their season falls apart, then they weren’t going to win anything anyway. And third, the Yankees have struggled lately because of the offense, right? How close were the hitters to Montgomery that his absence derailed their game? Obviously they’re all pals and teammates, but generally the pitchers stick with the pitchers, and the position players stick with the position players. (Maybe the hitters are distraught over trading Joey Gallo?)

It was a weird trade at best and a terrible trade at worst because Montgomery is playing and Harrison Bader is not (and won’t for another few weeks), and therefore the Yankees will win fewer games this season. I’m sure there was some letdown in the clubhouse. It’s only natural. I think any contribution to the recent struggles would be quite small though. It’s an easy narrative to craft, but the Yankees had been trending down for several weeks before the trade.

A different Dan asks: Zack Britton is beginning a rehab assignment less than a year after TJS. Isn't the recovery time somewhere between 12-18 months? Even after that, doesn't it usually take longer for command to come all the way back for a pitcher? With all that said, is it really wise for Britton to rush his recovery so much?

Yeah, the typical Tommy John surgery rehab is 14-16 months these days. Britton had his Tommy John surgery last Sept. 9th, so he’s just short of 12 months out. He pitched in his first minor league rehab game with Low-A Tampa on Wednesday and retired both batters he faced (one ground out and one strikeout). Here are his pitch locations:

Statcast had Britton’s trademark sinker between 90.2 mph and 93.4 mph (averaging 92.0 mph), which is pretty good for the first post-Tommy John surgery rehab game. He was on a strict pitch limit and threw only 11 pitches (Aaron Boone said Britton would throw no more than 15 pitches), and by all accounts Britton came out of it in one piece. So far, so good.

Britton’s rehab timetable is very aggressive by today’s standards. I also think that, if he wants to push his rehab, let him. Britton turns 35 in December and he’s made close to $90M in his career. He’s a smart guy and I’m sure he understands the risks. If he wants to push his rehab, then I say let him. This isn’t some young 20-something with his entire career ahead of him.

Now, coming back in September and pitching well in September are two different things, and control is typically the last thing to return following elbow reconstruction. Britton wasn’t blessed with great control to begin with (12.0% walks from 2017-20), and coming back from Tommy John surgery so soon could put his control in “Aroldis Chapman on a bad day” territory.

Britton’s not doing anything the doctors are saying he shouldn’t do. He’s made his money and is a veteran dude chasing a ring, so if he wants to rush through his rehab, let him. Hopefully it pays off and he can contribute to the Yankees down the stretch. I’m not expecting anything. I’m also open to being surprised.

(Britton’s 30-day rehab window began with Wednesday’s game, though teams can request a second 30-day rehab window for Tommy John surgery guys. The 30 days means Britton has to be activated by Thursday, Sept. 22nd. The Yankees will play their 149th game of the season that day. We’ll see what happens. Point is, Britton’s 30-day rehab window isn’t a hard 30 days.)

Jack asks: In your Tuesday post (two weeks ago), you wrote about Austin Wells and said: "Anthony Rizzo at first base in 2023 to Wells in 2024 lines up nicely, doesn’t it? – but the bat ensures he’s going to play somewhere. Wells can really hit. I just wish we had a little clarity on his long-term position." My question is: Do you really think Rizzo is our 1B next season? With his opt-out and the Yankees likely being in a precarious position during the off-season with Judge, it seems to me like a no-brainer that he opts out to at least try and squeeze the Yanks for an extra year or two. What do you think happens with Rizzo and 1B for 2023?

Are we sure Rizzo is opting out? He’s owed $16M next year, and he’s a just turned 33-year-old first base only guy with a troublesome back and a hitting profile that makes him susceptible to the shift. Did you know Rizzo has a .214 BABIP this year? Here are the lowest BABIPs among qualified hitters this century (ignoring 2020):

1. 2010 Aaron Hill: .196
2. 2022 Anthony Rizzo: .214
3. 2011 Vernon Wells: .214
4. 2022 Christian Walker: .215
5. 2022 Max Muncy: .216

Rizzo is slow and he pulls a lot of ground balls into the shift (and also hits more pop ups than the average hitter), so you’d expect him to post a low BABIP. He has a .235 BABIP in his last 1,300 plate appearances. This is who he is. Rizzo’s .222/.338/.487 (135 wRC+) line is above average overall but more 8-10 range among first basemen than top 3-5.

That isn’t to say Rizzo is bad. He’s been rock solid this year. I’m just not sure walking away from $16M is the smartest move given his age, his back trouble, and the way teams are steering clear of big money deals for non-elite first basemen. Also, the Yankees could slap the qualifying offer on Rizzo should he opt out, which could depress his market. He’d get a raise if he accepts it, but it’s still a one-year deal, which works well for the Yankees.

Rizzo had the opt out put into his contract for a reason and I expect him to try to leverage it into an extension, something CC Sabathia and Aroldis Chapman successfully did in recent years. The Yankees love Rizzo and Rizzo seems to love being a Yankee, so using the opt out to get an extension just might work. The qualifying offer thing makes me think there’s a chance, even if only a small one, the Yankees would call Rizzo’s bluff rather than cave and tack on additional years with an extension.

My guess is the Yankees will work out an extension with Rizzo, perhaps tacking another year at $16M onto his current deal. Add in the buyout of an option for another year and it could be $20M or so guaranteed. I’d bet on Rizzo being the 2023 first baseman. How exactly it happens (he doesn’t opt out, they work out an extension, etc.), I don’t know, but I think he’ll be back next year.

Brian asks: As a follow up to the arguments you set forth last week for and against promoting Volpe, at the very least, why wouldn't they promote him to AAA? Volpe and Peraza can split time at SS and 3b/2b which presumably will better prepare them for the bigs where they may have to move around. I just think it's clear at this point he has mastered AA and is ready for more of a challenge.

Speaking as an outsider, I don’t know why the Yankees haven’t promoted Anthony Volpe to Triple-A. He seems ready to me. The logical answer is the Yankees don’t believe he’s ready for Triple-A. They may want him to reach certain developmental milestones (the kind we can’t see in a box score) before moving him up. That is the easiest and most reasonable explanation.

As much as I’d like the Yankees to call up Volpe (or just promote him to Triple-A), they know him better than anyone. I’m fine deferring to the team when it comes to something like knowing when a prospect is ready for a promotion. Hopefully it happens soon. I imagine we’ll see Volpe in the Bronx at some point next year, and the sooner he gets to Triple-A, the sooner he has success at that level, and the sooner we could see him in the big leagues.

Seamus asks: During the Paul O’ Neill day broadcast, Michael Kay mentioned how lucky Torre and Girardi were to have Mariano because there was no second guessing. It was always Mo in the 9th and he was almost always automatic. Thinking ahead to next year, what are the Yankees’ options at closer both internally or via free agency/trade?

Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want Clay Holmes to be their 2023 closer. That requires getting healthy and getting back to All-Star form, but I think that’s the plan: Holmes as the closer next year. I’d say Jonathan Loaisiga is next in line among in-house options, with Scott Effross, Lou Trivino, and maybe Ron Marinaccio in some order behind him.

Edwin Diaz is the prize of the upcoming free agent class and he’s likely to get a record contract for a reliever. Beyond him there’s Kenley Jansen, who already did the one-year prove yourself contract thing this season and will probably seek multiple years. David Robertson on a one-year contract is always a possibility. Craig Kimbrel as a bounce back candidate? I can see it.

How about this: Zack Britton. He’ll be further removed from Tommy John surgery and he’s said he wants to finish his career as a Yankee, and at this point in his career he’s a one-year contract guy. Corey Knebel got one year and $10M this year after dealing with injuries last year. That set the market for Britton? He might even come in under that given how little he’ll pitch this year.

“I felt like the Yankees, (Brian) Cashman, took a shot on me and I want to hold up my end of the bargain,” Britton said last September. “... I wouldn’t mind finishing my career here. So I don’t even want to come back to show other teams I’m still the pitcher I was before. The Yankees put a lot of faith in me and I want to do right by them.”

I think Holmes is Plan A, a bounce back free agent like Britton or Kimbrel (or Taylor Rogers?) on a one-year deal is Plan B, and Plan C is all the other in-house candidates. The Yankees asked about Raisel Iglesias, but they weren’t willing to take on his entire contract, so they have a limit. They won’t trade quality prospects and spend big money on a closer. One or the other.

Vincent asks: Think there's anything to Josh Donaldson's extreme home and away splits?

They are extreme, aren’t they? Here are Donaldson’s numbers going into Thursday’s game:

2022 home: .168/.263/.272 (59 wRC+) in 198 PA
2022 road: .266/.338/.479 (133 wRC+) in 216 PA

Career at Yankee Stadium: .167/.262/.289 (59 wRC+) in 356 PA
Career everywhere else: .272/.369/.509 (139 wRC+) in 5,138 PA

Weird! I can’t explain it. More than half of Donaldson’s Yankee Stadium plate appearances have come this year, but even prior to 2022, he was a .167/.261/.312 (60 wRC+) hitter in the Bronx. Is this really a “Donaldson can’t handle New York” thing? He can handle being good enough to win an MVP and play over 1,300 big leagues games, but New York? Nope. That’s too much for him. Not sure I buy it.

Maybe Donaldson changes his approach (even subconsciously) in Yankee Stadium to use the short porch, and he gets him all out of whack? His pull and opposite field rates (and strikeout and walk rates) are close to identical at Yankee Stadium and elsewhere, so I’m not sure that’s it. I can’t explain this. Very unusual. Would be nice if road Donaldson showed up in the Bronx at some point.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)