August 23rd, 2022: Cabrera, Trivino, Hicks, Cortes, Trevino, Abreu, Effross, Prospects

The Yankees couldn’t win a game to save their lives the last three weeks or so, then they beat Alek Manoah and Max Scherzer on back-to-back days. This sport is so stupid sometimes. The Yankees are undefeated since the Yankee Stadium crowd showered Hal Steinbrenner with boos during Paul O’Neill’s number retirement ceremony Sunday. Coincidence? I think not. Let’s get to today’s post.

1. Weekend thoughts. Although they were able to salvage the series with a win Sunday, the weekend series was the sixth straight series loss for the Yankees. They hadn’t lost six straight series since Aug. 1995. The 1995 Yankees bounced back to go 25-6 in their last 31 games. Would be lovely if these last two games are a sign the 2022 Yankees are about to go on a similar run. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.

Where’s Oswaldo?

Third base on Wednesday, shortstop on Thursday, right field on Friday, third base on Saturday (after being in right field in the original lineup), shortstop on Sunday, and second base on Monday. Oswaldo Cabrera is the first player in Yankees history to start his first three games at three different positions, and also start his first six games at four different positions. He’s played them all well too. He’s not standing there and faking it.

• Friday: Robbed a homer in right field (video).
• Saturday: Lunging catch over the tarp at third base (video).
• Sunday: Jump throw at shortstop (video).
• Monday: Turned a double play with Cano-level coolness at second base (video).

Cabrera also collided with Marwin Gonzalez on a pop up in shallow right field Monday, which contributed to a two-run homer. He’s gotta let the outfielder take that ball. Otherwise Cabrera has been really good in the field while bouncing between four positions in six games. Really good with a flair for the dramatic.

"He's a player. Plays with a lot of confidence,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch about Cabrera over the weekend. “Good to see him out here showing off."

Cabrera hasn’t done much at the plate yet, going 3-for-22 (.137) with a walk and nine strikeouts through six games, though I think his at-bats have generally been okay. He went from 1-2 to a walk against Max Scherzer on Monday and he’s averaging a Judgian 4.30 pitches per plate appearance. His 13.4% swinging strike rate is not alarmingly high. I’m glad Cabrera has stayed in the lineup and the Yankees are giving him an honest to goodness chance (unlike poor Estevan Florial, who has started only one of the last four games).

At some point Oswaldo’s going to run into one (37 homers in 165 games between Double-A and Triple-A the last two years) and we’ll see more from him than flashy defense. For now, Cabrera looks like he has a chance to be the live-bodied super utility guy the Yankees have been seeking for years. Since the Joe Girardi era. He plays multiple positions well and the minor league track record says there’s pop in his bat. The kid’s been mighty fun so far, if nothing else.

“He’s turning himself into a really good player and I think he’s going to be a good player in this league for a long time,” Boone told Peter Botte. “But the intangible things are really special with him. It’s been good to see him come up here and handle himself really well.”

Trivino steps up

What an outing by Lou Trivino on Sunday. The Yankees had a 2-1 lead after six innings and I was thinking Scott Effross, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Wandy Peralta would be asked to get the last nine outs in some order. Little did we know Effross wasn’t available because of a stiff shoulder. Then Loaisiga and Peralta made a mess of the seventh inning and Toronto tied the game.

Trivino entered, got Vlad Guerrero Jr. to ground out with the bases loaded to preserve the 2-2 tie, then he recorded the final six outs after the Yankees regained the lead. Eight up, seven down. He set a new season high in innings (2.1) and tied season highs in pitches thrown (32) and batters faced (eight). Trivino got the win, though that was a “save” if I’ve ever seen one (video).

“We were just going to try and piece it together. I didn’t expect him to go 2+,” Boone told Zach Braziller after the game. “You can’t say enough about that effort from Lou. I thought he threw the ball great. Gets Guerrero in the biggest spot with the bases loaded to start things and then a real efficient inning that allowed him to go back out there for the ninth. As long as he was holding up, I was going to ride him until the end.”

I expected things to go sideways in the ninth when Boone elected to stick with Trivino against the lefties Raimel Tapia and Jackie Bradley Jr. even though Lucas Luetge was ready in the bullpen. I say that only because that’s how things have been going for the Yankees. I figured either Trivino would stay in and blow it, or Luetge would come in and blow it. Know what I mean? Anything that could go wrong has been going wrong.

Anyway, Trivino has allowed two runs (one earned) in nine innings with the Yankees and he’s a different pitcher now than he was earlier this season. I figured the Yankees would do something with him after the trade, though it should be noted Trivino began making changes with the Athletics. The Yankees have just allowed him to continue to evolve. His pitch selection:

Trivino replaced his curveball with a sweepy slider in May and is using it more and more as he gets comfortable with it. He’s also phased out his four-seamer and changeup, and is back to throwing his cutter as much as he did three years ago, before he put it on the shelf for a while. The sinker/sweeper/cutter pitch mix matches the Yankees’ preferences.

The bullpen is already short with Chad Green and Mike King hurt, Clay Holmes hurt and broken, Aroldis Chapman broken, and now Effross hurt. And that’s assuming Monday’s outing is an indication Loaisiga is back (like back back). Anyone who shows any semblance of reliability has a chance to climb the bullpen pecking order real quick, and Sunday’s performance is the kind of performance that can put Trivino firmly in the Circle of Trust™.

Trivino was a high leverage guy and occasional closer with the A’s the last few years, so he’s pitched in big situations plenty (you may remember him restoring order to the 2018 AL Wild Card Game with three scoreless innings). The Yankees need him in big situations now. Maybe not 2.1 innings every time out, but the opportunity is there to grab a late-inning job. Sunday was great. With any luck, it was the first of many clutch outings for the new addition.

“I’m up for anything,” Trivino told Braziller. “Honestly, whatever I can do to help this team win, I’ll do it.”

Hicks at the end of his leash

Sure feels like last Monday’s game was the final straw for Aaron Hicks. That night he misplayed a fly ball into a triple and banged into a 1-2-3 double play with the bases loaded. He’s started just one of the Yankees’ seven games since, and pinch-hit one other time. The writing has been on the wall since the Harrison Bader trade, but Hicks has forced the Yankees to pull the plug sooner.

“I mean, you can only struggle for so long, especially on a team like this. We’re struggling right now and to be a guy that is the one who is struggling the most, you could see it coming,” Hicks told Peter Botte about being benched. “For me, my season has not been what I wanted it to be. I know that I’m a better player than what I’m showing and I should be doing a lot more to help this team win. I’m just not doing it.”

In the last seven games Hicks has started in center field once, and Florial and Aaron Judge three times each. Judge had started three of his previous 19 games in center. I assume Florial is going down to make room for Giancarlo Stanton on Thursday*, at which point Judge will take over as the regular center fielder until Bader is activated. Maybe the Yankees surprise me and keep Florial around even after Stanton returns, but I'm not holding my breath.

“(Boone said) basically that I gotta figure out a way to get back in the lineup. That’s what it essentially comes down to,” Hicks told Botte. “When I get opportunities to play, get results. Basically, I just have to get better. Get better at hitting, defensively, and just gotta be able to put up competitive at-bats, every single time I’m out there. Whenever I get those opportunities, gotta be ready to go for them.”

* The Yankees should cut Marwin because Cabrera is a younger version of Marwin, but the Yankees hate parting with depth. I assume Florial’s lack of playing time (only one start in the last four games) means he’s the odd man out when Stanton returns.

Hicks being benched is not undeserved (he’s hit .152/.256/.152 and 27 wRC+ since the All-Star break) and the question is what now? What’s his role? Is he a strict fourth outfielder who starts once or twice a week? Or do the Yankees want to give him a shot at reclaiming the center field job, presumably with starts on the upcoming road trip? Do Boone and the Yankees even have something in mind, or are they in “let’s just win some games first” mode?

Cutting Hicks isn’t gonna happen. Not with Bader still an unknown and not when the offseason represents an opportunity to unload his contract, or at least part of it. Cut Hicks now and the Yankees have to eat all the money. That’s avoidable, and when in doubt, bet on the move that potentially saves the team the most money. For now, Hicks is a man without a defined role.

“As he and I have talked, baseball has a way of changing in a heartbeat. One big play, one big opportunity you take advantage of. All of a sudden you’re in there and you run with things,” Boone told Botte. “Just because you’re out now and it hasn’t gone exactly how we planned or he planned, it doesn’t mean you’re not going to be the central figure in the most important moment or game of the year. His job right now is to stay ready and go from there.”

Miscellany

It is Aug. 23rd and Nestor Cortes has a 2.68 ERA in 131 innings. He’s top 10 in the league in ERA and WAR (+3.4). With the caveat there’s still more than a month to play, Cortes has put himself in position to get down-ballot Cy Young votes. Incredible. Nestor faced the middle of the Blue Jays lineup in the sixth inning Sunday (his third time through the order) and struck out the 3-4-5 hitters authoritatively (video). Blew them all away with fastballs. All things considered, it might’ve been the most impressive inning of the season by a Yankees pitcher. This guy rules so much … Jose Trevino has started seven of the last eight games and he pinch-hit in the other game. He’s caught 65 of the team’s last 73 innings (89%). Trevino is 18-for-61 (.295) with three homers in August, so he’s not slowing down at all, and the Yankees are riding him hard. Hard to blame them. He’s been awesome, Kyle Higashioka has not, and the Yankees need as many wins as they can get right now. That requires putting your best players on the field as often as possible. Can’t say enough about the job Trevino has done this year … Remember when I said the Yankees had a chance to set a franchise record for pitchers with a save this season? They did it Monday. Loaisiga became the 11th different pitcher to record a save for the Yankees this year. The all-time record is 14 by the 2021 Rays. Find saves for Trivino (he got the win Sunday, not a save) and Ron Marinaccio, then maybe Zack Britton in September, and there you go, 14 different pitchers with saves. It's doable … And finally, I don’t think Alek Manoah hit Judge on purpose Sunday, but if you were going to hit a guy intentionally, that was a pretty good time to do it. First base was open and teams have pitched around Judge for weeks. The Yankees, specifically Gerrit Cole, were livid after Judge got plunked. That’s great. I’m pretty sure Manoah would squash Cole like a bug, but I’ll take anything that fires this team up right now.

2. Abreu and Effross to the injured list. Another two relievers down. Righties Scott Effross (shoulder strain) and Albert Abreu (elbow inflammation) were placed on the 15-day injured list over the weekend. The Yankees currently have a pretty good bullpen on the shelf:

• Closer: LHP Zack Britton (elbow)
• Setup: RHP Clay Holmes (back), RHP Mike King (elbow)
• Middle: RHP Miguel Castro (shoulder), RHP Scott Effross (shoulder), RHP Stephen Ridings (shoulder)
• Long: RHP Albert Abreu (elbow)

Abreu is not on the phantom injured list. It’s a legit injury. His velocity was down Saturday, more than 1 mph from other recent outings. It was his lowest average fastball velocity in a game since rejoining the Yankees. Also, the Yankees wouldn’t have put Abreu on the phantom injured list while Effross was banged up, and certainly not just to call up Luke friggin’ Bard.

“Obviously he’s on the 40-man roster,” Aaron Boone told Randy Miller about Bard. “He’s pitched better than his numbers down there (three runs in 4.2 innings with Triple-A Scranton) and he’s a guy that’s a strike thrower. He’s been getting swing-and-miss down there, as well. He’s a guy that throws the ball well and obviously we needed to fill a spot with Albert going down.”

I wonder how long Abreu’s elbow has been acting up. He’s exactly the kinda fringe roster guy who might pitch through things to stay on the roster. Speak up and you can go on the injured list and collect service time and big league pay, sure, but it also bumps you down the depth chart. At least if you’re on the mound, you can take matters in your own hands and show them they should keep you. I dunno. Athlete brains are weird.

Abreu had a promising stretch earlier this year when it looked like he made real improvement. It also could have been a 15-ish inning blip. Bad relievers pitch well sometimes. The injury may explain Abreu’s recent struggles, and if it does, great! He has talent, and if the Yankees can harness it, Abreu could be a real weapon. Hopefully this elbow issue is nothing and he can return and build on that little bit of success earlier this year. That would be ideal.

As for Effross, he was probably at the top of the high leverage pecking order given *points at everything going on in the bullpen* and now he’ll miss at least two weeks. He will be shut down 7-10 days, then reevaluated after that. Effross had that one bad game in St. Louis. Otherwise he’d been nails since the trade deadline, allowing one unearned run and striking out eight of the 27 batters he’d faced (29.6%) in his other seven appearances as a Yankee.

“Hopefully get him back in a few weeks here,” Boone told Greg Joyce about Effross’ injury. “Hopefully not something too serious.”

Aroldis Chapman can’t be trusted and Holmes isn’t eligible to return until next Monday (he threw a bullpen session over the weekend and everything went well, and he’s on track to return once his 15 days are up), and when he does come back, will his control be there? The Effross injury means Lou Trivino, who was so great Sunday, will see more high leverage work. Ron Marinaccio (and Clarke Schmidt?) too. The Yankees are having a hard enough time scoring runs. Protecting leads is going to be a challenge now as well.

“I think there are a lot of good things happening with our bullpen and the way a handful of those guys are throwing,” Boone told Brendan Kuty. “But that’s something that we need to sort out and declare and hopefully it is something that will declare itself over the next several weeks where guys can start to grab onto some rolls and we can get a little more defined as we unfold over here over the next few weeks.”

(FYI: There's a COVID outbreak in the Triple-A Scranton bullpen. Righties Jose Mujica, Carlos Espinal, and Jimmy Cordero have all been placed on the COVID list since Friday, and with the way these things go, more players could join them in the coming days. Hopefully those guys get well soon and hopefully the Yankees manage to stay healthy, because bullpen reinforcements are in increasingly short supply.)

3. Prospect thoughts. Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their post-trade deadline farm system rankings last week. The Yankees are No. 17. They always seem to sit in that No. 15-20 range, don’t they? I will say that, just eyeballing the bottom of MLB.com’s post-deadline top 30 Yankees prospect list, the system isn’t nearly as deep as it was a year ago. Makes sense after all those trades at the deadline. Here are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Spencer’s Statcast

Two weeks ago the Yankees moved OF Spencer Jones, this year’s first round pick, to Low-A Tampa, and he’s continued his assault on minor league pitching. Jones is 11-for-29 (.379) with two doubles, a homer, four walks, and five strikeouts in eight games with the Tarpons. His overall line: .410/.489/.641 (216 wRC+) with two homers, 11.1% walks, and 15.6% strikeouts in 11 pro games. He’s also 5-for-5 stealing bases. A very nice start, if nothing else.test

“It’s been awesome,” Jones told Brendan Kuty last week about his pro ball experience. “Ever since I’ve gotten here I’ve been able to meet a lot of really cool people within the organization, especially at Himes, the minor league complex. Getting to know a lot of the staff and all the things behind the scenes. I’m very impressed with how they operate things, how they run drills and do different things. There’s not a lot of wasted movement. Coaches and staff are really passionate about what they do. It’s been awesome and it’s been even better being able to play for them.”

Now that Jones is with Tampa, we have Statcast data. Here are some numbers (small sample size caveats apply):

• Average exit velocity: 91.4 mph (MLB average: 88.4 mph)
• Max exit velocity: 110.6 mph
• Hard-hit rate: 45.8% (MLB average: 35.8%)
• Ground ball rate: 58.2% (MLB average: 42.8%)
• Chase rate: 20.4% (MLB average: 28.9%)
• Swinging strike rate: 9.4% (MLB average: 11.1%)

I don’t know what the Florida State League averages are, but I assure you they’re not as good as the MLB averages across the board. Low-A hitters aren’t as selective as big leaguers, and they don’t hit the ball as hard as big leaguers either. Jones’ numbers being better than MLB average means they’re way better than Low-A average.

Of course, we’re talking about 34 plate appearances and 24 batted balls, so this doesn’t mean a whole lot. Exit velocity is not something you can fake though (only a handful of Low-A hitters have hit a ball 110 mph this year), and it’s nice to see Jones has been disciplined at the plate. Whittle that ground ball rate down and he’ll really be cooking.

A good finish to the season with Low-A Tampa sets Jones up to begin next season with High-A Hudson Valley. The chase rate and swinging strike rates are the important numbers. We know he can hit the ball hard. He did it all throughout college. Is Jones swinging at the right pitches? And when he does swing, is he making contact? If he checks those boxes, he has a chance to be a middle of the order difference-maker. So far, so good through 11 pro games.

“Right now we’re just playing baseball and they’re letting me go ahead and attack the game how I’d like to, but there are obviously a lot of things I need to work on if I want to be Major League ready at some point,” Jones told Kuty. “That comes in all areas of the game, whether it be baserunning or getting better jumps in the outfield and throwing. Those different things. Pitch recognition. I feel like my strength is that I love to compete. I like to get out there and put it all out on the field when I’m there. And then development-wise, those are conversations that have yet to be had.”

(Jones has only played center field (and occasionally DH) so far. He’s very athletic for a 6-foot-7 player but the consensus is he’ll wind up in right field long-term. Aaron Judge is making it work in center at 6-foot-7. He’s also a massive outlier relative to the rest of baseball history and not a reasonable expectation for anyone.)

Salazar joins RailRiders

Three months ago the Yankees signed RHP Danny Salazar to a minor league contract. Still only 32, Salazar had not pitched anywhere since 2019 due to injuries and the pandemic. It's a shot in the dark signing. Salazar and pitching coach Matt Blake have a history dating back to their time with Cleveland, so bring him in and see what’s what. If it works, great. If not, no big deal.

Following an extended build up period in Tampa*, Salazar made his organizational debut with Triple-A Scranton on Sunday. It was his first official game action in 1,085 days. Salazar’s line: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR. He threw 18 of his 29 pitches for strikes (62%) and got six swings and misses (20.7%). Apparently Salazar sat around 92 mph with his heater. Here’s video.

* Officially, Salazar has been on the rookie Florida Complex League 60-day injured list these last few weeks. He wasn’t actually injured. It was just a paper move allowing him to build up at his own pace in non-game action without tying up an active roster spot.

The Yankees did a number on their pitching depth at the deadline, trading three Triple-A starters and seven pitching prospects total. Salazar isn’t stretched out, so he’s not rotation depth, but the Yankees are shockingly thin in the bullpen too now that Albert Abreu and Scott Effross are hurt. RHP Deivi Garcia is their only healthy 40-man roster pitcher in the minors, and he’s not an MLB option.

I’m not sure how many more injuries must occur for Salazar to get the call (Ryan Weber is still slinging sinkers with the RailRiders and Greg Weissert deserves a look at this point) but I’d rather not find out. Seems like Salazar is using this as an opportunity to get back in the game, and the Yankees are evaluating him to see whether there’s a role to be had in 2023. One outing in, things are going well, mostly because Salazar came out of it in one piece.

Fitts trying to fit in

A prospect to know coming into the season, RHP Richard Fitts was a considered a possible first round pick following fall workouts at Auburn in 2020, but his junior year wasn’t all that good, and he fell to the Yankees in the sixth round last summer. They paid him a $346,800 bonus.

Fitts doesn’t look like a first round talent these days but he is a prospect, and he’s allowed one run in 12.1 innings with High-A Hudson Valley since being promoted two weeks ago. The 4.62 ERA in 87.2 innings this season is unsightly. The 28.7% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate are much more promising. Some pitch data from his time with Low-A Tampa:

• Fastball: 92.6 mph (96.6 mph max) and 2,447 rpm
• Slider: 82.9 mph (87.2 mph max) and 2,361 rpm
• Changeup: 87.8 mph (90.6 mph max) and 1,762 rpm

The spin on the fastball is very good but the velocity is just okay. The slider is not the sweeper, it’s a traditional slider with sharper break (video), and Fitts has barely thrown the changeup this year. That’s a bit weird because it was touted as his best pitch in college. It’s a split-change hybrid and he’s thrown it less than 8% of the time. Fitts has been 56% fastballs and 36% sliders.

Fitts was alarmingly home run prone in college (10 homers in 41.1 innings last year) and that has continued in pro ball. He’s given up 14 homers in 87.2 innings this year (1.44 HR/9 and 14.6% HR/FB) and that is way too high. Even dudes who prove to be home run prone in the big leagues typically suppress homers in the minors because they overwhelm most hitters (Phil Hughes had a career 0.30 HR/9 in the minors).

The fastball velocity and infrequent changeup usage point to a possible future in the bullpen. If that gets him into the mid-90s consistently, and he can sharpen that slider a bit, Fitts could have a nice future in relief. He’s already missing bats and limiting walks, so the ingredients are there. Present day Fitts may not have the stuff to go through an upper level lineup multiple times. But, he’s still a Single-A kid, with plenty of developmental runway ahead of him.

Miscellany

Last year the Yankees helped several fringe infield prospects have breakout power seasons (Oswaldo Cabrera, Diego Castillo, Hoy Jun Park, etc.) and this year’s version is IF Jesus Bastidas. He’s hitting .253/.338/.448 (114 wRC+) with 14 home runs in 370 Double-A plate appearances. Bastidas came into the season with 11 homers in 737 career plate appearances. Bastidas turns 24 next month and is primarily a second baseman, and I can’t see the Yankees putting him on the 40-man roster after the season. Maybe another team takes him in the Rule 5 Draft. I dunno. Just wanted to acknowledge his breakout season … And finally, the Yankees released OF Pablo Olivares earlier this month. He's missed most of the season with an injury and went 2-for-19 (.133) in the rookie Florida Complex League before getting cut. Olivares had some prospect shine back in the day and was one of the few players remaining from the ill-fated but well-intentioned 2014-15 international signing class. As best I can tell only OF Estevan Florial and IF Wilkerman Garcia remain in the organization, and Garcia hasn’t actually played since 2019 because of injury and the pandemic (he is under contract with the Yankees though). For all intents and purposes, Florial and Clay Holmes are all that remain from that international class (Castillo and Park were part of that class, and they were traded for Holmes).

4. Arizona Fall League candidates. At some point in the coming weeks the 2022 Arizona Fall League rosters will be announced. Most of them, anyway. There are always a few TBA spots on the initial rosters, typically on the pitching side. Those spots are filled at a later date, once the MLB parent club gets their ducks in a row.

Yankees prospects will play alongside Athletics, Cubs, Marlins, and Rays prospects on the Mesa Solar Sox this fall. Unless things open up this year, Statcast data is made available from only one AzFL ballpark and it is not Mesa’s, so we’re out of luck there. The 2022 AzFL season begins Monday, Oct. 3rd. The Championship Game will be played Saturday, Nov. 12th.

MLB opened up AzFL eligibility a few years ago. Previously the AzFL was limited to Double-A and Triple-A players, with one Single-A player per MLB parent club. There were also limits on service time and international players whose home country have a winter ball league. Now pretty much anyone can go. The Yankees could send Aaron Judge to the AzFL! They won’t, but it is technically possible. Anyone can go now, as long as they accept the invitation.

That said, the AzFL is a development league and roster spots are finite. Each team can send a maximum of nine players: four pitchers (one starter and three bullpen guys), three full-time position players (exact positions are negotiated among the clubs), and two taxi squad position players (only eligible to play twice a week). Everyone who goes to the AzFL goes for a reason.

Because so many pitchers are up against their workload limits by the end of the regular season, the AzFL is a very hitter friendly league. The pitching is mostly second and third tier prospects (and below), or guys coming off injury and shaking off rust. Last year the AzFL average was a .269/.369/.417 line with a 22.7% strikeout rate. That qualifies as hitter friendly these days.

With the caveat that predicting AzFL rosters is damn near impossible (RHP Zach Greene was the only player in my mini-AzFL preview last year to actually go to the desert), here are a few players the Yankees could send to Arizona in October.

LHP Edgar Barclay

2022 stats: 1.84 ERA (2.80 FIP), 32.4 K%, 8.7 BB%, 37.4 GB% in 53.2 IP (Hi-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2022

Barclay entered the year as a Not Top 30 Prospect and he’s pitched very well this season (zero home runs allowed!), albeit in a lower profile swingman role. The 24-year-old sits in the low 90s and has a very good changeup and an improved slider. The fact Barclay is Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason might work against him. The Yankees are unlikely to add him to the 40-man roster, but other teams could have interest, and sending him to the AzFL would give them more opportunities to scout him. The Yankees may opt to hide Barclay, if that makes sense.

RHP Clayton Beeter

2022 stats: 5.03 ERA (4.68 FIP), 36.3 K%, 14.3 BB%, 37.8 GB% in 59 IP (AA)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2023

Acquired in the Joey Gallo trade, Beeter has pitched well since joining the Yankees (7.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 11 K) and the reason to send him to the AzFL would be innings. The Dodgers keep their pitching prospects on tight pitch counts and Beeter, despite working as a starter, has never thrown more than four innings or 69 pitches in a game in his pro career. He’s at 59 innings this year after throwing 52.1 innings last year. Beeter could finish the regular season with 75 or so innings, and the AzFL could get him to 100 (only a handful of pitchers throw even 20 innings in the AzFL each year). My guess is the Yankees will shut him down after the regular season with an eye on really turning him loose in 2023.

OF Jasson Dominguez

2022 stats: .271/.381/.450 (136 wRC+), 12 HR, 25.7 K%, 14.7 BB% in 443 PA (mostly Lo-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2023

The question is fatigue. Dominguez has played 101 games with 443 plate appearances this year, far and away the largest single-season workload of his life. I know he’s young and strong, but the season is a grind, and his body may not be up for another month of baseball. Mike Trout is built like a linebacker too and he was as good as any prospect ever at age 19 in 2011, yet he hit .245/.279/.321 with 33 strikeouts and five walks in the AzFL that year because he was out of gas.

Dominguez has been incredible the last few months. He hit .281/.405/.480 (156 wRC+) with a 25.7% strikeout rate in is final 53 games with Low-A Tampa (the league average strikeout rate is 27.1%) and he owns a .286/.403/.480 (140 wRC+) line with strong strikeout (21.0%) and walk (16.0%) numbers through 26 games with High-A Hudson Valley. If he’s physically up for it, I say send Jasson to the AzFL and let him continue building on this success.

OF Deivi Garcia

2022 stats: 8.36 ERA (6.32 FIP), 21.6 K%, 11.1 BB%, 32.8 GB% in 42 IP (AA and AAA)
Rule 5 Draft status: Already on 40-man (in final minor league option year)

The Yankees brought Garcia out of hiding right before the trade deadline and he looked good with four scoreless and walkless innings in his first game back with Double-A Somerset. Since then he’s allowed 17 runs and 25 baserunners in 16.1 innings spanning four starts, so yeah, it’s still not happening. Garcia has pitched in winter ball in the Dominican Republic in the past and might do that again rather than go to the AzFL. Given his relatively light workload this year (only 42 innings) and the need to figure out what to do with him this offseason, I imagine the Yankees want Deivi pitching somewhere after the minor league season ends.

RHP Yoendrys Gomez

2022 stats: 1.95 ERA (3.00 FIP), 23.9 K%, 8.3 BB%, 34.7 GB% in 27.2 IP (mostly Hi-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Already on 40-man (has a minor league option for 2023)

Over the years I’ve learned there’s no such thing as an obvious AzFL candidate, but it feels like Gomez is an obvious AzFL candidate? COVID and an elbow injury limited him to 23.1 innings last season and he’s thrown only 27.2 innings since returning from his non-Tommy John elbow surgery a few weeks ago. This guy needs innings. Between injuries and the pandemic, Gomez has thrown only 155.1 innings since 2018. I know the Yankees really like him. So send him to the AzFL as a starter and let him make up for lost time.

“It’s just hard (to know what you have) when you haven’t gotten to see him pitch much,” director of pitching Sam Briend told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) about Gomez earlier this month. “... The rust and tightening up his secondary pitches will be the primary goal. I think he’s a mid-rotation starter, possibly better. I think his ceiling could be a top tier starter.”

OF Spencer Jones

2022 stats: .410/.489/.641 (216 wRC+), 2 HR, 15.6 K%, 11.1 BB% in 45 PA (Rk and Lo-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2025

The days of first round picks holding out all summer and making their pro debut in the AzFL are long gone thanks to the signing deadline. The last few years have been a bit weird because of the pandemic and no draftees have gone to the AzFL the year they were drafted since at least 2019, but it does happen. Jones played 61 games with Vanderbilt this spring and will finish the minor league season with 30 or so games. That enough for the year? Jones is a candidate to go to the AzFL the same way most quality position player prospects are candidates to go. There is no reason to send him beyond extra at-bats.

LHP Matt Minnick

2022 stats: 2.13 ERA (3.90 FIP), 27.7 K%, 9.4 BB%, 32.8 GB% in 50.2 IP (AA)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2022

The Yankees send a random reliever or two to the AzFL every year (last year it was RHP Blane Abeyta and RHP Clay Aguilar) and Minnick is my attempt at guessing that reliever this year. The 2019 23rd round pick is a low-90s fastball/breaking ball guy who has been effective against both righties and lefties this year. Minnick is exactly the kinda guy who winds up in the AzFL because the MLB parent club has to send someone, and better prospects have reached their workload limit for the season.

RHP Stephen Ridings

2022 stats: N/A (injured)
Rule 5 Draft status: Already on 40-man (has minor league options for 2023-25)

Ridings has yet to pitch this year because of a right shoulder impingement, though he did start throwing bullpen sessions earlier this month, and that puts him on track to pitch in actual games sometime next month. A few minor league regular season rehab outings leading into an AzFL stint to make up for lost time seems like a thing that can (and probably should) happen.

I should note Ridings is currently on the 60-day injured list. The AzFL is not a rehab league. All players must be active, so the Yankees would need to activate Ridings (and thus open a 40-man spot to accommodate him) to send him to the desert. That shouldn’t be an issue. It’s just a thing that has to happen.

1B T.J. Rumfield

2022 stats: .266/.368/.383 (109 wRC+), 3 HR, 21.4 K%, 13.2 BB% in 182 PA (mostly Hi-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2024

The Yankees acquired Rumfield in the Nick Nelson/Donny Sands 40-man roster cleanup trade with the Phillies last offseason and an injury* has limited him to 43 games this year. He returned in the middle of last month and has performed well enough with High-A Hudson Valley, albeit with very limited power. Seems like a candidate to get a few extra at-bats in the AzFL after missing more than two months with the injury.

* Rumfield broke a bone in his upper body. I know that much. How and which bone exactly, I do not know.

C Anthony Seigler

2022 stats: .242/.416/.390 (133 wRC+), 7 HR, 19.9 K%, 22.2 BB% in 356 PA (Lo-A and Hi-A)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2022

Not really sure what to make of Seigler’s season. It is easily his best and healthiest season, and he does have the 23rd best swinging strike rate (6.6%) among the 785 players with at least 300 plate appearances in the minors. That contact doesn’t appear to be all that hard, however, which jibes with the pre-2022 scouting reports. Seigler hit seven homers in his first 42 games this year and has gone deep zero times in 41 games since. The AzFL would give him a chance to continue building on an overall strong season, and also give the Yankees a little more time to evaluate him before having to make a 40-man decision.

C Austin Wells

2022 stats: .277/.384/.492 (140 wRC+), 14 HR, 21.0 K%, 13.6 BB% in 309 PA (Hi-A and AA)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2023

The Yankees sent Wells to the AzFL last year and he did what you’d expect him to do in a hitter friendly league (.344/.456/.578 in 18 games). Sending him back this year would be about making up at-bats (and innings behind the plate) after missing more than a month with a groin injury earlier this season. That’s really all there is to it with Wells.

SS Anthony Volpe

2022 stats: .251/.351/.465 (121 wRC+), 17 HR, 17.5 K%, 11.1 BB% in 464 PA (AA)
Rule 5 Draft status: Eligible Dec. 2023

Similar to Dominguez, it’s a question of workload. Volpe is about a week away from setting new career highs in games played and plate appearances, and there’s still another month to play in the minor league regular season. He could get to 130 games or so and the Yankees could say “nice job, go rest up and enjoy your offseason, and get ready for next year” rather than send him to the AzFL. Volpe started slowly but has been incredible the last few months. I’m not sure he needs an AzFL stint for developmental reasons. It's just an opportunity to get more at-bats, and his current workload says he doesn’t need them, so I dunno.

SS Oswald Peraza and C Ben Rortvedt

These two are in the same boat because they’re candidates to play in the big leagues this season (Rortvedt if a catcher gets hurt and Peraza if the Yankees make a change at shortstop). And, even if they don’t get called up, they’re next in line at their positions, in which case the Yankees could carry them on the postseason taxi squad. The MLB team is the priority and the Yankees won’t send possible depth guys to the AzFL because they might need them in the Bronx. Never say never (Rortvedt needs at-bats after missing so much time with injuries and Peraza is an AzFL candidate the same way Dominguez and Volpe are AzFL candidates), but the Yankees likely have bigger plans for these two.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Orioles designated Brett Phillips for assignment over the weekend and outrighted him to Triple-A on Monday, after he cleared waivers. The Yankees reportedly had interest in Phillips prior to the trade deadline and they could have grabbed him on waivers this weekend, but passed. That suggests they don’t like him that much, and are comfortable rolling with Estevan Florial as their speed and defense high-strikeout lefty hitting center fielder. Hooray for that. Phillips brings nothing to table Florial doesn’t. Let’s see what the kid can do already … And finally, I want to thank Yadier Molina for an all-time ridiculous story. Molina left the Cardinals for two days this past weekend for “business reasons,” according to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. Those business reasons: Molina returned home to Puerto Rico to watch a basketball team he owns compete for a championship (he admitted it). Could you imagine any other player leaving his team – his first place team – to do something like that, and have it go over as smoothly as this thing with Molina apparently has? No way. It’s been close to a non-story. St. Louis won their two games without Molina, so it didn’t hurt them on the field, but still, this dude left his team to go watch basketball! Amazing. Just imagine if, say, Alex Rodriguez did that. (For the record, the Cardinals placed Molina on the restricted list those two days, so he wasn’t paid while away from the team.)

6. Remembering a random Yankee: Andrew Velazquez. The Yankees are mired in their worst slump in several years and it coincides almost perfectly with the random Yankee series going on hiatus (58-21 before and 17-27 since). I’m doing my part and bringing the random Yankee series back this week as a slumpbuster, and hey, it must be working, because I wrote this Sunday morning, before the game. I expect a World Series ring and a postseason share. Here’s the random Yankee archive. There’s links back to everyone we’ve covered there.

Velazquez was born and raised in the Bronx (Morris Park, specifically) and attended Fordham Prep. He played baseball and ran track in high school, and passed up a full ride to Virginia Tech to turn pro after the Diamondbacks selected him in the seventh round in 2012. Arizona paid him a $200,000 bonus as the No. 243 pick.

A scouts’ favorite because he plays hard, Velazquez moved around quite a bit early in his career. The D’Backs traded him to the Rays in the Jeremy Hellickson deal in Nov. 2014, then Tampa sent him to Cleveland for international bonus money in July 2019. The next February, the Orioles claimed Velazquez on waivers.

Velazquez made his MLB debut with the Rays as a September call up in 2018 and he appeared in 68 games with Tampa, Cleveland, and Baltimore from 2018-20. He hit .157/.257/.219 while playing six positions in those 68 games. The O’s dropped Velazquez from the 40-man roster after the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He signed a minor league deal with his hometown Yankees on Jan. 5th, 2021.

There was never really a chance Velazquez would make the Opening Day roster, so he began 2021 with Triple-A Scranton. He was very productive with the RailRiders (everyone seemed to have a career year with the RailRiders in 2021), hitting .283/.367/.471 with seven home runs and 26 steals in 29 attempts in 70 games.

I thought Velazquez was called up to the Bronx during one of the team’s many COVID outbreaks last summer, but that was not the case. He was called up on Aug. 9th because Gleyber Torres went on the injured list with a thumb injury, and the Yankees needed someone who could play shortstop. So, Velazquez got the call, and he initially shared shortstop duty with Tyler Wade.

“I’m excited to have him here. He played really well in spring for us. He lights up a room. We’ve said the word energy I feel like 1,000 times over the last month, but he’s another guy that brings just a positive energy to the clubhouse,” Aaron Boone told Kristie Ackert after Velazquez joined the team. “He’s having a really good year in Triple-A as a switch hitter, a guy that runs the bases extremely well, and is a really good defender at shortstop.

Velazquez didn’t begin his Yankees career in the Bronx. They were in Kansas City, then they went to Chicago, then they came home. He started three of the six games on the road trip. Velazquez made his first start at Yankee Stadium (he played three games in the Bronx prior to 2021, but zero starts) on Aug. 16th. It was a makeup game against the Angels. He went 0-for-3 with a strikeout in a 2-1 win.

“This is something I’ve thought about. I kind of feel like I manifested it since I was a child, so it’s amazing to me,” Velazquez told Ackert before playing his first game as a Yankee. “I used to have Yankee uniforms and when I was a kid, I used to go to the stadium all the time. So I mean this is where my love for baseball began.”

Velazquez’s biggest moments as a Yankee came during that homestand. He started again the day after the Angels game, going 1-for-3 with a two-run single against the Red Sox. Velazquez also made several nifty plays in the field (video). He started again the next day and went 2-for-4 with two run-scoring singles and more nice plays in the field (video). Three days later against the Twins, Velazquez swatted his first MLB home run with his his family in the stands (video).

“Some guy was screaming at me that I should hit my first one,” Velazquez told Bryan Hoch after the game. “Every at-bat I got on deck, he was screaming, ‘Hit your first one down the line!’ So I went 0-for-3 before that. The final one, I said, ‘Let me take his approach, because mine ain’t working.’”

That first homestand as a Yankee was a dream, and a cult hero was born. Velazquez went 6-for-17 (.353) with a home run in the seven games. He drove in six runs. Velazquez took over as the starting shortstop job and had a five-game hitting streak at one point, and even stuck around after Gleyber returned. His production slipped, however, and on Sept. 12th, the Yankees sent Velazquez to Triple-A because they needed a fresh long reliever.

On Oct. 2nd, the second to last day of the regular season, DJ LeMahieu’s hernia finally became too much, and he had to be placed on the injured list. There was talk he could return later in the postseason if the Yankees advanced, which of course they did not. Velazquez was called up to take LeMahieu’s roster spot and he resumed starting shortstop duties, pushing Gio Urshela back to third (it was LeMahieu at third, Gio at short, and Torres at second in September).

“I get it. I think everybody in there gets it. I think everybody who’s a baseball fan gets it, so everybody’s aware of what it’s going to be like, trying to stay where we are and where our feet are in one place at a time,” Velazquez told Ackert prior to the Wild Card Game in Fenway Park. It’s been an incredible experience. I mean, just being around these guys is an incredible experience, just seeing how they go about their business and handle big situations like this.”

Velazquez did indeed start the Wild Card Game at short but he didn’t stay in the game long. He flew out to left on the first pitch in his first at-bat, then was replaced by pinch-hitter Rougned Odor for his second at-bat. The Yankees were down 3-0 in the sixth inning at the time and needed offense. No longer could they prioritize defense. They went on to lose the game 6-2.

In 28 games as a Yankee in 2021, Velazquez hit .224/.235/.358 with the one home run in 68 plate appearances. Thanks to his glove he was a +0.0 WAR player in those 28 games, which is a minor miracle given how poorly he hit. Incredibly, Velazquez is the first and still only player born and raised in the Bronx to play for the Yankees. And yes, he lived with his parents while playing shortstop for the Yankees.

“Way closer than staying in Manhattan,” Velazquez told Ken Davidoff. “Cheaper too.”

The Yankees went into the 2021-22 offseason knowing they needed a shortstop, but there was never a chance it would be Velazquez despite his Bronx roots and cult hero status. He was dropped from the 40-man roster after the season and the Angels claimed him off waivers, and committed to him as their starting shortstop because they loved his defense.

“The opportunity to play in New York, my hometown, was amazing. A once in a lifetime experience. And the way the game works, you never know. Just enjoyed my time here, but really good opportunity in Anaheim,” Velazquez told Davidoff over the winter. “I try not to look at it (as the Yankees gave up on me) because it was such a good experience. I think it was good selfishly for me, but also just for the city. For people that I grew up with. Kids that are trying to become whatever they’re trying to become, in and out of baseball.”

Velazquez was Anaheim’s starting shortstop for much of the first half (he started 64 of their first 80 games at short) but didn’t hit at all, and is now primarily a backup to David Fletcher. He owns a .194/.236/.284 (46 wRC+) line in 298 plate appearances with the Angels after entering the season with 181 career plate appearances. Still only 28, there’s always a chance Velazquez makes his way back to the Yankees at some point. Baseball is a flat circle.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is going back on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)