RAB Thoughts

August 16th, 2022: Offense, Kiner-Falefa, Holmes, Chapman, Dominguez, Iglesias, Senga

Added 2022-08-16 12:01:03 +0000 UTC

Doesn’t it feel like the air is slowly being let out of the balloon? The Yankees peaked at 49-16 on June 18th and it’s been a slow – and worsening – slip down the winning percentage slide since. The Yankees are 23-28 since June 18th and that is one game better than the Rockies (22-29). The Rockies! The Rockies are the baseball equivalent of me spending 15 minutes looking for my glasses while wearing them. The Yankees have to go 28-18 to win 100 games and that a) is a very tall order right now, and b) is an unbelievable fall from where they were two months ago. Let’s get to today’s stupid post about the stupid Yankees.

1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees have scored eight runs in their last 62 innings (that would be a 1.16 ERA for a pitcher because all eight runs were earned) and it’s been 34 innings since someone other than Isiah Kiner-Falefa drove in a run. They’ve been shut out in back-to-back games for the first time since Sept. 2016, when they shut out in three straight games. We’ve gone from comparing this team to the 1998 Yankees to the mediocre as hell 2016 Yankees. A few thoughts on the last few games.

A struggling offense, yet no changes

The Yankees have reached a tipping point with the offense. Aaron Hicks has become untenable, Josh Donaldson has become untenable, and Kiner-Falefa has somehow been worse than both on a rate basis (84 wRC+ vs. 92 wRC+ vs. 99 wRC+). None of the injured regulars (Harrison Bader, Matt Carpenter, Giancarlo Stanton) are close to returning. The status quo can not remain.

I didn’t expect the Yankees to make any roster moves prior to Monday’s game because urgency always seems to be in short supply around these parts, but if there was ever a time to do it, that was it. They’d just wrapped up a pretty ugly 2-7 road trip during which they found a new way to lose seemingly every night. Consider:

The Yankees were shut out three times on the road trip. They were shut out three times in their previous 94 games.
Saturday’s win required the best game of Kiner-Falefa’s Yankees career and even then it was a nail-biter down to the final out.
They were held to two soft singles and a walk on national television Sunday night, and they didn’t get a runner to third base.
Aaron Judge is up to 17 walks in his last 14 games. Teams aren’t pitching to him, and why would they?

The Yankees have no obvious plan beyond “hope these guys play better,” which is fine in May. Not so much in August. How much longer do you wait for Donaldson and his nosediving contact quality to turn it around? How long do you wait for Hicks to do literally anything other than draw an occasional walk? The time for patience has come and gone.

I don’t have the highest hopes for Estevan Florial (those bad pitch recognition/high strikeout guys tend to get exposed quick) but we know Tim Locastro doesn’t do much. Don’t want to rush Oswald Peraza? Okay, well Oswaldo Cabrera is 31-for-92 (.337) with four doubles, two triples, and seven homers in 24 Triple-A games since coming off the injured list, and he’s played both middle infield positions and right field. What more does he have to do?

And you know what else? This is the perfect time to try the kids. Despite their best efforts, the Yankees still have a 10-game lead – they’re 26-28 in their last 54 games (exactly one-third of the season) and have lost zero games in the standings – and that cushion equals opportunity. With a one or two-game lead, forget it. That’s a tough time to break in kids. A 10-game lead is when you do it! The conditions couldn’t be better.

(The Braves called up Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom, their top two prospects, straight from Double-A. Harris is gonna win Rookie of the Year! Maybe we should be calling for Anthony Volpe and not just Peraza? The defending World Series champs can do it. Maybe follow their lead, Yankees.)

Monday was a perfect chance to reset after the road trip and bring in a few fresh faces for the homestand. The roster moves are easy: Locastro and Miguel Andujar out, Florial and Oswald(o) in. Instead the Yankees stuck with the status quo. Everything will be fine, we believe in our guys, etc. etc. Their Triple-A prospects are simultaneously too good to trade and not good enough to supplant some of the least productive hitters in baseball. I do not get this.

"We need a spark," Gerrit Cole told Greg Joyce following Monday's loss. "But it just seems to be tough to come by right now."

The offense has reached the “bunting runners up for Kiner-Falefa and Hicks” phase of their slump and that is a dark, dark place. The Yankees will come out of this eventually (right?) but I don’t feel great about the “the injured guys will come back and fix things” plan (there’s a reason all they talk about is Bader’s defense). The kids can surprise you. They can positively stink too, but they can surprise you. Right now, the guys in the lineup are not surprising us. They’re failing on the regular and we’re at the point where change is warranted.

(I know this is about the offense but holy hell get Ron Marinaccio back on the roster as soon as possible.)

The IKF Game

Judge and Kiner-Falefa have combined for 47 home runs this season! Kiner-Falefa finally got the monkey off his back Saturday night, swatting his first home run* as a Yankee in his 380th plate appearance as a Yankee (video). Only Cesar Hernandez (489) and Myles Straw (436) had more plate appearances without a home run at the time.

“It’s been a challenge so far,” Kiner-Falefa told Dan Martin after the game. “I’m working to do everything I can to prove myself.”

* The Yankees gave Kiner-Falefa the silent treatment after his home run and went the extra mile. He returned to an almost empty dugout because everyone hid in the tunnel (video). When you’re going through it like the Yankees are right now, anything that loosens the team up is a plus. Also, Kiner-Falefa got the ball. He said he wanted it because it was his first home run as a Yankee. He had to trade a signed Judge ball for it. “Who wouldn’t want a Judge ball, though?” he told Bryan Hoch.

I don’t think I’d call 372 feet a legit bomb, but Statcast says Kiner-Falefa’s dinger would have left every park except the new Camden Yards, so it wasn’t a wall-scraper either. Kiner-Falefa now has 17 career home runs: five against the Astros, four against the Red Sox, and eight against everyone else. He doesn’t go deep often, but he does tend to go deep against the right teams.

The home run was really important too! The Yankees are struggling offensively right now and Kiner-Falefa’s homer was a game-tying two-run shot in the fifth inning with the team’s ninth loss in 10 games only 14 outs away. The Yankees haven’t lost nine out of 10 since May 2015. Kiner-Falefa’s homer didn’t win the game, but it certainly gave the team some life.

Of course, you don’t get a game named after you for one play. It takes multiple clutch plays and Kiner-Falefa also drove in the game-winning run with a ninth squeeze bunt in the top of the ninth (video). The Red Sox defended it horribly – Kiner-Falefa laid down a good bunt more than a great bunt, I’d say – but all that matters is the run scored. Final score: IKF 3, Red Sox 2.

“It was a great call,” Kiner-Falefa told Hoch after the game. “Boonie is a great manager and he put me in a position to succeed right there against a tough pitcher on the mound. (John Schreiber) has been really good on righties, so it’s a tough matchup. I was going to try and spray something, but once I saw that, it was just, ‘Get the job done.’”

And let’s not forget the scoop at second base in the bottom of the ninth. Jose Trevino made an unbelievable play on Rafael Devers’ tapper in the front of the plate to get the force out at second. It wasn’t an easy play and Trevino made a bit of an awkward throw, and Kiner-Falefa bailed him out with the scoop (video). That’s what teammates are for. Great, great play on both ends.

It’s been a difficult season for Kiner-Falefa – he’s still hitting only .270/.318/.324 (84 wRC+) with okay at best defensive numbers – and it’s not wrong to want to see Peraza. There’s no indication the Yankees will make a change though, and if they were starting to think about making a change, Saturday likely bought Kiner-Falefa a longer leash, Stephen Drew style.

With any luck Kiner-Falefa will relax a bit now that he no longer has to look at the “0 HR” on the scoreboard each time he steps to the plate, and go on a hot streak. Either way, Saturday was his signature game as a Yankee and it was a long time coming. Props to him for a great game on both sides of the ball. The Yankees badly needed a lift and Kiner-Falefa provided it.

“It feels good to come through with the big homer and small ball, showing off both sides of my game,” Kiner-Falefa told Hoch. “I’m happy to come out with a win. We’ve been playing a lot of close games, so it feels good to finally pull one off. I’m glad I was finally able to do what I do. I can hit the ball around, bunt the ball, do the dirty work.”

A new franchise saves record, kinda

The IFK Game is The IKF Game because the Yankees won. Had they lost, it would have been the game Kiner-Falefa finally went deep, and that’s it. We would have forgotten all about it before long. The Yankees won because closer du jour Scott Effross was able to navigate through Devers and Xander Bogaerts with the tying run in scoring position in the ninth.

“Plenty of (adrenaline), honestly. Especially at the end, see the ball go in the glove, that was a pretty special moment,” Effross said after the game (video). “I tried my best to keep it simple and go one pitch at a time. Stay ahead of the guys and let the defense play. Obviously happy to get that opportunity.”

Effross let out a yell and a fist pump (multiple yells and multiple fist pumps, really) after the final out (video) and I can’t lie, I thought the ball might drop in with the way things have been going, especially after Trevino bumped into Bogaerts and lost his balance for a moment. But the out was made and Effross recorded his first save as a Yankee (and second of his career).

And with that, Effross became the tenth different pitcher to record a save for the Yankees this season, setting a new franchise record (since saves became an official stat in 1969*). The previous record was nine set in 2016. Here is the Yankees’ saves leaderboard this year:

Clay Holmes: 17
Aroldis Chapman: 9
Clarke Schmidt: 2 (three innings in blowout wins on July 24th and 30th)
Manny Banuelos: 1 (three innings in a blowout win on June 12th)
Scott Effross: 1
Chad Green: 1
Mike King: 1
Lucas Luetge: 1 (3.1 innings in a blowout win on July 8th)
Wandy Peralta: 1
Ryan Weber: 1 (three innings in a blowout win on July 16th)

Pitch the final three innings and you get a save regardless of the margin of victory. The Yankees have five such saves this year. That’s the most in baseball. No other team has more than three. The all-time record is seven such saves by the 2001 and 2002 Red Sox. The Yankees have 46 games to break it. I believe!

The record for most pitchers with a save is 14 by the 2021 Rays. Can the Yankees match that? Probably not, but consider:

Albert Abreu, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Lou Trivino are on the active roster and don’t have a save for the Yankees this season (Trivino had 10 with the Athletics but they don’t count).
Zack Britton (elbow) and Miguel Castro (shoulder) are on the mend and could make it back in September. Neither has a save this year (Britton hasn’t pitched this year period).
Marinaccio is bound to resurface at some point. He could vulture a save.

Furthermore, the closer’s role is up in the air right now. Holmes has to get himself sorted out in lower leverage situations and, based on Saturday, Chapman will be used as the fireman in the game’s biggest moments rather than be held back for saves. It’s closer by committee for the moment, right? That opens the door for others to sneak in and get saves.

You can see a path to the Yankees finishing the season with a record number of save-getters. It probably won’t happen but maybe it will. And really, it’s not some great historic accomplishment. It’s just a fun little statistical quirk. The days of Mariano Rivera getting 40+ saves each year with one or two stray save chances going to others are long gone, eh?

* As noted, saves became an official stat in 1969. If you go back and calculate them retroactively, the Yankees also had 10 different players record a save in 1953, 1956, 1960, and 1964. The single-season record remains 14 different pitchers with saves by Tampa last year.

Holmes loses control

The writing has been on the wall the last few weeks and Holmes is officially out as closer. Not just out as closer, but out as a high leverage guy all together. Aaron Boone said he will look to find softer landing spots for Holmes moving forward, as he works to regain his control. Holmes blew the save Friday on two walks and a ground ball single. Nine of his 20 pitches were strikes, and at one point he threw four strikes in a 14-pitch span.

"I'll try to put him in the best positions to be successful. Some nights that will be the ninth, but we'll keep working with him. Got to get him consistent,” Boone told Brendan Kuty and Field Level Media. “... He’ll be ready. He’s onboard.”

Holmes has walked seven and hit three of the last 33 batters he’s faced (30.3%), and walked 11 and hit five of the last 60 batters he’s faced (26.7%). Prior to that he’d walked only nine and hit three of the 245 batters he’d faced as a Yankee (4.9%). With the Pirates in 2021, Holmes had walked or hit 15.3% of the batters he faced, so his control problems right now are far worse than anything he experienced with Pittsburgh. This is bad:

“I think it’s just a matter of getting back to what made me good, what I was doing then. I was being aggressive in the zone early. When I get ahead of hitters, they have to swing the bat and make different decisions,” Holmes to Hoch following Friday’s game. “... I don’t feel like I’m far off, but again, those walks hurt me. This can’t happen. It’s the walks that I’m just getting hurt on right now. Anytime you walk guys late in the game, you typically pay for it. It’s just something where I’ve got to get ahead of hitters. My stuff works a lot better in those counts.”

Boone, Holmes, and pitching coach Matt Blake have hinted at release point issues and release point inconsistency is hard to see in a graph because release points do vary game to game, and even at-bat to at-bat. Gerrit Cole is a machine and his release point wavers as much as three inches start to start. That said, here are Holmes’ sinker releases points by month as a Yankee:

All the way on the left is August 2021 and all the way on the right is August 2022. Holmes’ sinker release point is gradually drifting away from the third base side of the rubber and toward the first base side. The difference between August 2021 and August 2022 is close to five inches. More notably, the difference between April through June 2022 and August 2022 is nearly three inches.

Is that significant? I don’t really know. Horizontal release point can change because the pitcher is standing somewhere different on the rubber, not because he changed his arm action. But the manager, the pitching coach, and the pitcher himself are all talking about release point issues, and there is the August 2022 release point all by itself on the right side of the graph, so maybe this is significant? I mean, a three or so inch change within a season seems like a big deal.

Whatever the problem, Holmes is battling extreme control issues right now and the Yankees have to get this sorted out. They need this dude to get back to being a dominator to have their best chance at being the last team standing in October. When he’s right, Holmes is on the short list of the game’s best relievers, but right now he’s not reliable enough for important innings.

So, Holmes is being shuttled down into low leverage work, the same way Chapman was earlier this year (Loaisiga too, and he’s looking better lately himself). And, with any luck, Holmes will get himself straightened out the same way Chapman appears to have gotten himself straightened out. Holmes suddenly being unable to locate his sinker really stinks though. It’s no fun being nervous when he takes the mound. I miss first half Clay.

Chappie back on track

I guess the 2022 Yankees aren’t allowed to have an effective Chapman and an effective Holmes at the same time. One must always be dealing with control problems. Chapman looks like the good version of Chapman again. His last nine games: 9.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K. It’s only 9.1 innings, but they’re the best 9.1 innings he’s thrown all season. Chapman is the anti-Holmes:

“He’s been locating his pitches well, attacking hitters, putting the pressure on them. And when you do that with the type of stuff he has, running it up to 100, you’re going to get good results,” Judge told Erik Boland on Saturday. “I think that’s the biggest thing. When you have the type of stuff he has and you’re getting into 0-1, 0-2 counts instead of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 counts, and letting hitters maybe gear up for a heater in certain counts, you’re kind of keeping them off-balance with 0-1, 0-2 counts. You’re going to have better results. It’s been fun to see so far. If we can get him back to doing what he normally does, we’re going to be in a good spot down the road.”

Chapman told Marly Rivera he went back to long tossing to get his mechanics in order. It forced him to extend his elbow and keep his arm loose, then his release point clicked and his fastball control (and confidence) returned. Isn’t it amazing a pitcher who throws as hard as Chapman can lose confidence in his fastball? It is to me, yet we’ve seen it countless times over the years.

It also should be noted Chapman has cut down on his slider the last few times out, and thrown more splitters. He gave up a three-run homer to Anthony Santander on a slider on July 22nd (that was the game King got hurt, when he pitched only because the homer cut the deficit to one) and he’s really scaled back on it since:

Chapman has been effective the last few times out and Boone has used him in a variety of roles too. He’s entered games in the sixth, seventh, and eight innings recently (but not the ninth), and he entered in the middle of an inning Saturday night too. Chapman hasn’t done that often in his career as a traditional closer. Credit to him for adapting to this fireman role.

I’m not sure I’ll ever fully trust Chapman again, but he seems to be back on track, and of course it happens right as Holmes goes in the tank. At least one of them has been effective at all times this year (more or less). Chapman is back to having confidence in his fastball, and when he has confidence in his fastball, he’s very effective. These are likely his last three months or so as a Yankee. With any luck he’ll finish with a flourish.

Miscellany

Much better second start as a Yankee for Frankie Montas. Frankie the Yankee allowed two runs in five innings while on a pitch count, and the two runs scored during a rather weak rally: walk, ground out, bloop single, walk, hit-by-pitch, sac fly. Montas hit Jarren Duran with a cutter. It was the third cutter he threw all night (60th pitch overall). Weird pitch selection, especially since Duran has had issues with velocity throughout his brief big league career. Well, whatever. Good bounce back outing for Montas. Now the Yankees just have to get him stretched back out and a) he threw 78 pitches Saturday, so he’s not far away from being fully stretched out, and b) the Yankees still have a 10-game lead in the AL East, so there’s no need to rush things. The rotation has been much better lately and that’s a welcome sight … Trivino is on the Scott Proctor workload plan. He’s pitched eight times in his 11 games on the active roster. Six of the eight appearances were partial innings and the Yankees had a few off-days in there, so it’s not as bad as it looks, but that’s a big workload by 2022 Yankees standards. Trivino hasn’t tweaked his pitch selection yet or anything like that, but maybe it’s coming. For now, he’s Everyday Lou … And finally, the Yankees did not score in the tenth inning Friday, though at least there was no dumb baserunning. That said, the Yankees have now failed to score in their last seven – seven! – extra innings. That’s the longest extra innings scoreless streak by any team since the automatic runner became a thing in 2022. History with an exclamation point.

2. Postseason schedule announced. MLB announced the 2022 postseason schedule earlier this week and we’re guaranteed to have November baseball this year. World Series Game 4 is scheduled for Tuesday., Nov. 1st. Game 7 is scheduled for Monday, Nov. 5th. It would be the latest World Series game ever. Blame the lockout.

Because of said lockout, and because MLB has to squeeze the best-of-three Wild Card Series into the schedule, the postseason schedule is wonky this year. The regular season ends Wednesday, Oct. 5th, and the postseason begins two days later. I’m only going to post the dates potentially relevant to the Yankees. First, the Wild Card Series:

Game 1: Friday, Oct. 7th
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 8th
Game 3: Sunday, Oct. 9th (if necessary)

Three games in three days as the baseball gods intended. The Wild Card Series is straightforward. And, of course, the Yankees currently have a 10-game lead in the AL East and the same 10-game lead on the Wild Card Series bye, so hopefully we don’t have to think about this. The lead remains double digits and days keep coming off the calendar. Unless an AL Central team gets very hot, securing a bye is as simple as winning the division.

Now here is the best-of-five ALDS schedule. I mean, what even is this?

Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 11st
Game 2: Thursday, Oct. 13rd
Game 3: Saturday, Oct. 15th
Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 16th (if necessary)
Game 5: Monday, Oct. 17th (if necessary)

An off-day between Games 1 and 2, then another off-day between Games 2 and 3? And then Games 3-5 on three straight days? The NLDS doesn’t have the off-day between Games 1 and 2. They have just the one off-day between Games 2 and 3.

Thanks to this format an AL team could start its ace in Game 1 and then again in Game 3 on short rest. I don’t think any team will plan on that, but if you’re down 0-2 in the series and your back is against the wall, yeah, maybe it happens. At minimum, the ace can start Game 1 and then Game 4 on normal rest. The ace starts two of the first four games.

Now here’s the best-of-seven ALCS schedule:

Game 1: Wednesday., Oct. 19th
Game 2: Thursday, Oct. 20th
Game 3: Saturday., Oct. 22nd
Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 23rd
Game 5: Monday, Oct. 24th (if necessary)
Game 6: Tuesday, Oct. 25th (if necessary)
Game 7: Wednesday, Oct. 26th (if necessary)

An off-day between Games 2 and 3 … and that’s it. Game 3-7 will be played on five consecutive days, if necessary. Score one for the No. 5 starters. So much for Jordan Montgomery not getting a postseason start, eh? In all seriousness, this happened in 2020. There were no off-days in the LDS or LCS rounds that year. They were played straight through.

And do you remember what happened? There were no No. 5 starters. Teams used openers and bullpen games rather than send their version of Domingo German to the mound in a postseason game. I suspect the same thing will happen this year. Yeah, it would be nice to have Montgomery at least as a postseason option, but that’s true with or without the wonky schedule.

Also, this could lead to a travel nightmare. If the Yankees and Mariners meet in the ALCS and the series goes six games, they’re going to have to play Game 5 in Seattle one night and then Game 6 in New York the next night while losing three hours to the time change. The Mariners are the only West Coast team with a shot at the postseason in the American League, so hopefully this can be avoided.

Now here’s the thankfully normal World Series schedule:

Game 1: Friday, Oct. 28th
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 29th
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 31st
Game 4: Tuesday, Nov. 1st
Game 5: Wednesday, Nov. 2nd (if necessary)
Game 6: Friday, Nov. 4th (if necessary)
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 5th (if necessary)

It’s the usual 2-3-2 format with off-days between Games 2 and 3, and Games 5 and 6. MLB will play around with the schedule in the earlier rounds but not the World Series. I assume the the postseason schedule will go back to normal next season, but who knows with this league. Now, let’s get back on track and avoid that Wild Card Series, mmmkay Yankees?

3. Mining the news. There are a few bits of Yankees-related and potentially Yankees-related news floating out there, so let’s cover ‘em, shall we? Let’s get to it.

Yankees offered Dominguez for Castillo

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees offered Jasson Dominguez in trade packages for Luis Castillo. Anthony Volpe was off-limits and possibly Oswald Peraza as well. The Mariners gave up an enormous package for Castillo – they gave up their versions of Volpe and Peraza – so there was no real chance Dominguez plus other stuff was getting done.

Does the Yankees making Dominguez available in a Castillo trade tell us anything? I guess it tells us they’d rather trade him than Volpe and Peraza, suggesting he ranks lower on their internal prospect rankings, which makes sense. I have Dominguez over Peraza but I seem to be in the minority. Also, Dominguez is further away than Volpe and Peraza. Keeping the kids close to the big leagues is something every team wants to do. Not sure this tells us much, honestly.

Dominguez has more than held his own since being promoted to High-A Hudson Valley, hitting .270/.402/.419 (128 wRC+) with two home runs and 10 steals in 11 attempts through 21 games. He also has nearly as many walks (17.4%) as strikeouts (21.7%). You have to give up something to get a pitcher of Castillo’s caliber, and if the Yankees take Volpe and Peraza off the table, who’s left? The Yankees offered just enough to not get it done.

Correa “likely” to opt out

In the least surprising news ever, Carlos Correa is “likely” to opt out of his contract with the Twins after the season, reports Heyman. Correa signed a three-year, $105.3M contract with two opt outs, so it’s essentially a one-year, $35.1M deal with a two-year, $70.2M insurance policy in case he had a disaster season or suffers a catastrophic injury. That hasn’t happened, so he’ll opt out.

Correa owns a .273/.355/.440 (128 wRC+) line with 14 homers and better than average strikeout (20.1%) and walk (11.1%) rates. His career batting line: .276/.355/.476 (128 wRC+) with 20.5% strikeouts and 10.8% walks. The only real difference between Astros Correa and Twins Correa is swapping out the Crawford Boxes for one of the worst ballparks for right-handed homers.

Heyman isn’t reporting anything new or shocking here – it was obvious the day Correa signed his contract that he’d opt out as long as he stayed healthy and had a typical Correa year, which he has – but it is making the rounds. Did the Yankees make a mistake not signing Correa last offseason? Yes. Will they double down on that mistake this offseason? Also yes.

Correa already did the one-year thing. Now he’s going to look for a long-term contract. And if the Yankees passed on one year of Correa, I have no reason to believe they’ll pursue him on a long-term contract, especially since Volpe (and Peraza) are closer to MLB-ready. Maybe they’ll have interest in fellow free agent shortstops Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson if they get backed into a one-year contract like Correa last offseason? Maybe, but I’m not gonna hold my breath.

It won’t happen but Correa would be such a great fit for the ascendant Orioles. Former Yankees prospect Jorge Mateo is having an okay season (+2.6 WAR with mostly defense) and shouldn’t stand in the way of Correa. Gunnar Henderson, baseball’s No. 1 prospect, is knocking on the door and is a shortstop himself, though there’s some thought he’ll wind up at third base. Figuring out how to make Correa and Henderson coexist is a “problem,” not a problem.

My guess is Correa winds up with the Cubs or maybe even back with the Astros since rookie Jeremy Pena, Correa’s replacement, is falling on his face (.229/.263/.373 and 81 wRC+ since June 1st). They have some money coming off the books in two years. Backload the contract and try to win while Jose Altuve and Justin Verlander are still performing at high levels, and there you go. Correa on a long-term deal just isn’t something I see the Yankees doing.

Yankees pursued Iglesias

One last nugget from Heyman: the Yankees were among the teams to pursue Raisel Iglesias at the trade deadline, though the Angels sent him to the Braves because they were willing to take on the entire $51M or so owed to him through 2025. Atlanta traded journeyman Jesse Chavez and lefty Tucker Davidson for Iglesias. The Yankees equivalent is something like Lucas Luetge and Matt Krook. It was a salary dump, basically.

Iglesias, 32, has a 3.70 ERA this year that is largely the result of three disaster appearances. He’s allowed 19 runs and nine have come in three appearances totaling 2.2 innings. Otherwise the 32.9% strikeout rate and 6.0% walk rate are excellent. The biggest downside with Iglesias is he’s home run prone (1.35 HR/9 and 15.6% HR/FB since 2018), which is a bad trait for a high leverage reliever.

The Yankees have four veteran relievers set to become free agents this offseason (Zack Britton, Miguel Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green) though none has been a significant contributor this year. They have an entire bullpen – the makings of a pretty good bullpen too – under control for 2023:

Closer: RHP Clay Holmes (arb-eligible)
Setup: RHP Scott Effross (pre-arb), LHP Wandy Peralta (arb-eligible)
Middle: RHP Albert Abreu (pre-arb), RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (arb-eligible), LHP Lucas Luetge (arb-eligible), RHP Ron Marinaccio (pre-arb), RHP Lou Trivino (arb-eligible)
Long: RHP Clarke Schmidt (pre-arb)
Injured?: Mike King (arb-eligible)

There is always room for improvement and there’s always room for another high-end guy in the late innings, especially if King does indeed need Tommy John surgery. Iglesias could have been that guy, and although the Yankees were unwilling to take him on at $16M a year from 2023-25, perhaps this is an indication they’ll spend money on a top reliever this winter?

Here is the 2022-23 free agent class and here is the WAR leaderboard among full-time relievers scheduled to hit the open market this winter, just to use it as a starting point for a discussion (for what it’s worth, I am of the belief WAR underrates high leverage relievers):

Edwin Diaz: +2.6 WAR
David Robertson: +2.4 WAR
Anthony Bass: +1.9 WAR (Blue Jays hold a $3M club option for 2023)
Adam Ottavino: +1.7 WAR
Matt Moore: +1.5 WAR
Brad Hand: +1.3 WAR

Diaz is having a tremendous season, legitimately one of the greatest relief seasons ever (52.2% strikeout rate!), and he has a chance to become the first $20M a year reliever in history. The all-time reliever records are $18M per year (Liam Hendriks) and $85M in total dollars (Chapman). Gotta think Diaz breaks both. Can’t see the Yankees going there.

Toronto figures to pick up their option on Bass. Hand, Moore, and Robertson are one-year contract guys at this point in their careers, and I can’t see the Yankees reuniting with Ottavino. The free agent market behind Diaz lacks a reliever worth a big investment. Josh Hader would’ve been an obvious trade target had the Brewers not shipped him to the Padres. Alas.

One name not on that WAR leaderboard is Craig Kimbrel. He hasn’t been terrible this year (4.39 ERA and 2.46 FIP with 29.6% strikeouts) but he’s really struggled at times and has never truly dominated. The Yankees tried to get Kimbrel in the past. They love buying low on guys and fixing them up. A one-year deal for the soon-to-be 35-year-old Kimbrel could be a thing that happens.

It’s possible the Yankees made a run at Iglesias, realized they couldn’t get it done without taking on his entire contract, then pivoted to Effross and/or Trivino. We know they’re willing to spend big on great relievers (see: Britton and Chapman) and the interest in Iglesias shows they’re still open to it, at least to a certain point. With Hader presumably off the market and Diaz likely out of their comfort zone, I’m not sure which reliever they’d commit big dollars to this winter.

Senga expected to pursue MLB offers

Fukuoka Softbank Hawks righty Kodai Senga is expected to consider MLB offers this offseason, reports Jon Morosi. The 29-year-old will have enough service time to qualify for international free agency and won’t need to be posted. He'll be a regular old free agent. Senga is one year into a five-year contract that pays him $5.3M in 2022. He can opt out after the season to pursue an MLB deal.

"As a ballplayer, it's essential to live my life always aiming higher," Senga told the Kyodo News in December. "My thinking on that has not wavered. This was a big year for me. (Next year) I want to blow past all the numbers I've managed up to this point."

This season Senga owns a 2.05 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate in 105.1 innings. The league is pitcher friendly – the league averages are a 3.06 ERA and 20.0% strikeouts – and Senga is still well above average. He has a bit of an injury history (oblique strain in 2013, shoulder strain in 2014, ankle ligament issue in 2021) and has thrown more than 150 innings only twice.

Senga is one of the hardest throwers in Japan, averaging around 96 mph with his heater, and his moneymaker is a devastating forkball nicknamed the Ghost Fork. Here’s a fastball/forkball overlay (GIF via Rob Friedman):

The great Jim Allen provided a stathead friendly scouting report on Senga, complete with 20-80 scouting scale grades. Here’s a snippet of what Jason Coskrey (subs. req’d) wrote last year:

Senga’s ghost forkball remains a premier pitch and pairing it with his fastball makes it even nastier for opposing batters. He has a slider, a cutter and a two-seamer, and will mix in a curveball. If Tomoyuki Sugano isn’t the best pitcher in Japan then it’s probably Senga.

When he’s healthy, Senga is an MLB pitcher. He’s Japan’s premier strikeout pitcher and his forkball is a weapon in any league.

The injury history is a bit overblown. The oblique strain is whatever and the shoulder issue was nearly 10 years ago. Last year’s ankle injury was a bit of a fluke too. Senga tried to field a hard-hit comebacker, lost his balance, and hurt his ankle on the fall. That said, two 150-inning seasons in an 11-year-career (2022 would be the third) is what it is. This isn’t a workhorse.

The most apt comparison might be Kenta Maeda, who had his workload managed very carefully after coming over in 2016. The Dodgers often found an excuse to put him on the injured list in May to give him a breather, they used the All-Star break to give him another breather, and then they stuck him in the bullpen late in the season. Maybe that’s the Senga blueprint?

Jameson Taillon will be a free agent after the season and Luis Severino could be as well, though I think the Yankees are picking up his $15 club option (it’s a $12.25M decision once you factor in the $2.75M buyout). Severino would then join Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Frankie Montas in the 2023 rotation. Domingo German and Schmidt would be the No. 5 starter candidates.

You don’t have to try all that hard to see the Yankees bringing in another starter this offseason, especially since German and Severino have long injury histories and Schmidt will probably need his workload monitored to some extent. Senga appears to have real upside, so while he may not chew up innings, the innings he does give his team could be very, very good.

The Yankees have seriously pursued only two Japanese players since Kei Igawa: Shohei Ohtani and Masahiro Tanaka. Ohtani was 23 (and he wouldn’t listen to them) and Tanaka was 25. They were very young. Senga turns 30 in January. He’s not coming over for a one-year contract either. Multiple years for a 30-year-old with no MLB track record? Doesn’t seem very Yankees-like.

We have an entire offseason to discuss Senga. For now I’ll note a) the Yankees don’t give out multi-year contracts to free agent starters often (Cole, Tanaka, and J.A. Happ are the last three), and b) the shiny new toy is always appealing, but there are going to be 30-year-olds with MLB track records available. If Senga was 25 or 26, it would be a different story, but there will be others available with similar skill sets who are more known quantities (Carlos Rodon, etc.).

Mariners designate Torrens

Late last week the Mariners designated former Yankees prospect Luis Torrens for assignment. I thought his final act as a Mariner was the walk-off single against the Yankees in the 13th inning Tuesday, but nope. Turns out he started behind the plate the next day and went 0-for-2 before being removed from a pinch-hitter. Anyway, he cleared waivers and was sent to Triple-A.

Torrens, who turned only 26 in May, owns a career .224/.284/.346 (75 wRC+) batting line in 752 big league plate appearances, with -24 DRS and -15.8 framing runs behind the plate. That is: bad. I bring this up only because I can’t help but wonder what Torrens’ career would have looked like with a normal development path. This is not remotely close to normal:

July 2012 (age 16): Signed with the Yankees as international free agent ($1.2M bonus)
2013-14 (ages 17-18): 110 games in rookie ball and Low-A
2015 (age 19): Missed the season with shoulder surgery
2016 (age 20): 52 games in Low-A
2017 (age 21): 56 games in MLB as Rule 5 Draft pick with the Padres
2018 (age 22): 122 games in High-A
2019 (age 23): 97 games in Double-A and 7 games in MLB
2020 (age 24): 25 games in MLB plus time at alternate site, traded to Seattle at deadline
2021 (age 25): 19 games in Triple-A and 108 games in MLB
2022 (age 26): 46 games in MLB

The kid played 162 games in the low minors from 2013-16, including losing a full season to an injury, then spent a year as the third catcher on a 91-loss Padres team in 2017. Torrens then was sent to the minors to attempt a normal climb up the ladder. Then the pandemic happened and he again spent the season as a third catcher at the MLB level, and was traded at midseason. Poor kid didn’t have a chance to catch his breath.

I ranked Torrens the No. 10 prospect in the farm system in Spring Training 2016, his last season with the Yankees. The book on him at the time said he was a good bat-to-ball hitter with power potential and good defensive chops. Basically none of that held up, possibly because Torrens had such an atypical development path and was rushed up the ladder at a position with a steep learning curve. This would’ve been tough as an outfielder. As a catcher? He had no chance.

Of course, it’s entirely possible Torrens would have fizzled out and not reached the big leagues with a normal development path, in which case he’s come out way ahead. He has over three years of service time and my back of the envelope math puts his MLB earnings at a touch under $2.5M (he’s making $1.2M this year, his first year of arbitration as a Super Two).

Flaming out is the most likely outcome for any prospect. Torrens is probably fortunate, but damn, I wish I could see what he would have become with normal minor league development. He was a highly regarded all-around catcher and those are among the scarcest commodities in the game. Maybe in an alternate universe somewhere Torrens replaces Gary Sanchez behind the plate in 2020 or 2021, and the Yankees have one of the top young catchers in the game. Alas.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)