August 11th, 2022: Carpenter, Abreu, Judge, LeMahieu, Cortes, Taillon, Peraza, Mailbag

Self-promotion: I was asked to write a thing about why the Yankees are struggling at CBS, so give that a read if you’re so inclined. The Yankees are 1-7 in their last eight games and while we know they aren’t really that bad, this is one of these stretches where you watch them and say "okay, maybe they really are that bad.” Ugly, ugly baseball lately. Here is Friday morning’s post Thursday night since it’s an off-day and the Yankees can’t hurt us.

1. Carpenter injured. Can’t say I had “Matt Carpenter gets hurt in August and it’s a devastating loss” on my 2022 Yankees bingo card, yet here we are. Carpenter fouled a pitch into his left foot and suffered a fracture Monday night. He saw a specialist in Seattle and does not need surgery. He’ll see another specialist in New York in the coming days and the expectation is he’ll miss 6-8 weeks.

“I’ll be back this season. I feel good about it. We’ll see. We’ve checked everything and it’s the best we could hope for, given the situation. I’ve got a broken bone that takes time to heal.” Carpenter told Dan Martin after seeing the specialist. “They threw a number out there. I’m gonna do whatever I can to speed the process up and see how it goes. I don’t like to put restrictions or a timeline on it. When I feel like I can come back, I’m gonna be ready to go.”

The play seemed innocent enough. Sometimes a guy fouls a pitch into his foot and it’s a high velocity direct hit, and he immediately crumbles to the ground. Carpenter’s foul didn’t look that bad (video). We see players walk off much worse each year. I guess it just hit him in the wrong spot. There are so many small, easy to break bones in the foot, and he found one.

A broken foot has a wide range of recovery times and 6-8 weeks is a good outcome, all things considered. Chris Taylor broke his foot on July 4th and returned to the lineup Aug. 7th, and that’s pretty much the best case scenario. Ozzie Albies broke his foot June 13th and started baseball activities last weekend, and is still a few weeks away. That’s a bad (but not the worst) scenario.

Carpenter is hitting .305/.412/.727 (216 wRC+) with 15 home runs this year and, from the day of his Yankees debut to the day of his injury, only 11 players hit more homers. During that time he was 12th in homers and 233rd in plate appearances. Here’s a section of the WAR leaderboard from the day after Carpenter suffered his injury. I found it amusing (these are full season totals):

72. Jose Trevino: +2.5 WAR
73. Andrew Benintendi: +2.4 WAR
74. Matt Carpenter: +2.4 WAR
75. Josh Donaldson: +2.3 WAR
76. Matt Olson: +2.3 WAR
77. Jorge Mateo: +2.3 WAR
78. Anthony Rizzo: +2.2 WAR

Set the minimum to 150 plate appearances and Carpenter’s 219 OPS+ is the 17th highest in a single season in history. It’s the fifth highest in the Expansion Era (1961 to present):

1. 2002 Barry Bonds: 268 OPS+
2. 2004 Barry Bonds: 263 OPS+
3. 2001 Barry Bonds: 259 OPS+
4. 2003 Barry Bonds: 231 OPS+
5. 2022 Matt Carpenter: 219 OPS+

I set the bar nice and low at 150 plate appearances to catch all those outlier small sample performances, and Carpenter’s 2022 is still the fifth most productive in the Expansion Era. Yeah, it’s only 150 plate appearances, but when we fret over small sample sizes, it’s usually in the context of “will this last?” What Carpenter did is in the books. There’s no taking it away. It helped the Yankees win games.

Carpenter is scrap heap pickup royalty and he’s not just a feel-great comeback story. He’s a very important part of this team! He happily accepted a part-time role and thrived in it. The Yankees stuck him in the outfield and he held his own. He’s a plus in the clubhouse and oh so easy to root for. Carpenter went from “how does he fit?” to “what will the Yankees do without him?”

With Carpenter sidelined Rizzo is the Yankees’ only lefty who will regularly hit the ball out of the ballpark – Yankees lefties have 60 homers this year and Carpenter and Rizzo have 42 of them (Joey Gallo has 12 of the other 18) – so the lineup is back to being imbalanced. Benintendi is a productive hitter and Aaron Hicks will draw walks, but they don’t put runs on the board with one swing often. Lefty power is again a deficiency.

Miguel Andujar was called up to replace Carpenter and that’s temporary. He’ll go back down as soon as Giancarlo Stanton returns, though Stanton’s return isn’t imminent. The lineup these last few days has been pretty grim. The 4-9 spots behind DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, and (when healthy) Rizzo are really weak. Since Stanton’s last game on July 23rd:

• 1-3: .227/.405/.598 (184 wRC+)
• 4-6: .207/.273/.335 (75 wRC+)
• 7-9: .229/.284/.354 (84 wRC+)

Hopefully the specialist in New York confirms the 6-8 week time frame. That would put Carpenter on track to return in late September, giving him maybe a week or so of game action to shake off the rust. If the Yankees secure a Wild Card Series bye, it would buy him a few extra days to heal and prepare before the ALDS. The sooner Carpenter returns though, the better. The Yankees need this guy.

“He's just become such an important factor in that room,” Aaron Boone told Doug Miller. “And everyone loves him. So it's a blow, but hopefully we get him back at some point.”

2. Weekday thoughts. On the morning of June 19th the Yankees were 49-16 and nine games better than the Astros, who had the second best record in baseball. Now the Astros are 72-41 and the Yankees are 71-41. The nine-game lead is officially gone. And you know what the worst part is? The Astros are 8-9 in their last 17 games and they still caught the Yankees. Talk about giving it away, man. Still 50 games to play, but Houston has an easier remaining schedule (so much Angels and Athletics and Rangers), so finishing a game ahead of them and securing home field advantage will be a challenge. Then again, the Yankees have more important things to worry about than home field advantage against the Astros, like not looking like a team poised to go four-and-out in the ALDS. Anyway, a few thoughts on the last few games.

13-inning moronathan

Can you decline the automatic runner in extra innings? Asking for a team that managed to have only seven plate appearances in the 10th, 11th, and 12th innings Tuesday night. At one point this year the Yankees looked like an improved – legitimately improved – team on the bases. That is out the window. They’re back to making dopey baserunning mistakes seemingly every night.

“Just tough plays in tough situations,” Isiah Kiner-Falefa told Doug Miller after the game. “It's a good learning experience. (Trying to be aggressive on the bases) kind of backfired on us a little bit. It helped us win a lot of games earlier in the year, and tonight, it just didn't go our way.”

The Yankees made four outs on the bases in extra innings Tuesday (video), erasing the automatic runner in three of their four extra innings. Only one wasn’t an unforced error: Jose Trevino getting caught between second and third in the 12th inning. The pitcher, Matt Brash, threw his glove out and snagged a comebacker behind his back. That’s just bad luck.

Andrew Benintendi got caught wandering off second base in the 10th. Miguel Andujar didn’t freeze on a low line drive in the 11th. Then Kiner-Falefa got caught trying to go to second while Trevino was in a rundown in the 12th. Replays showed Kiner-Falefa just put his head down and ran hard to second base. He didn’t look to see whether going to second was even doable.

The baserunning was obviously atrocious and costly Tuesday. But the Yankees had three hits (all singles) in 13 innings*, and two hits in the final 12 innings. Only one of the final 18 batters they sent to the plate hit the ball out of the infield. It was garbage at-bat after garbage at-bat, none worse than Gleyber Torres and Andujar with the bases loaded in the 13th. Those were not competitive.

“I don't want to lose our aggression on the bases. We've been really successful,” Aaron Boone told Miller after the game. “But, you know, we've got to be a little smarter. And we've had a couple here in the last couple of weeks that have kind of hurt us. But you know, I think the biggest thing tonight is we just had a hard time getting hits.”

* The Yankees had 42 plate appearances in a 13-inning game, or four over the minimum. The automatic runner skews the numbers there, but that’s kind of the point? The automatic runner kept running into outs. Katie Sharp says 42 plate appearances in a full 13 innings (i.e. not including teams that walked off in the bottom half) is tied for the fewest in MLB history. Lord.

Much like last season, the Yankees have to beat the other team and also overcome their own costly mistakes these days. That wasn’t the case earlier this year. The Yankees were firing on all cylinders in all phases of the game. Now, not much is going right. DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge have been amazing. The best you can say about everyone else is they’ve been up and down.

The pitching was amazing Tuesday. The offense did everything it could to give that game away and the Yankees still pushed the Mariners to 13 innings. And as frustrating and mediocre as the Yankees have been the last few weeks (22-25 in their last 47 games), they’re playing .500-ish ball, and haven’t cratered to, say, 18-29. The AL East lead is still 10 games. It was 12 games at the start of the 22-25 stretch (way to capitalize, rest of the division).

That said, bad teams find ways to lose and the Yankees are finding new and interesting ways to lose these days. The baserunning mistakes Tuesday were undoubtedly terrible, but they covered for an ineffective offense that was shut out for the second time in four games after being shut out twice in the previous 66 games. So much about the Yankees must improve.

Abreu and the Moment of Truth

Albert Abreu has shown some promise in his second stint with the Yankees. He has! He had an 18.8% strikeout and a 25.0% walk rate with the Rangers and Royals earlier this year. With the Yankees, it’s 25.8% strikeouts and 5.6% walks. The 2.57 ERA (2.41 FIP) in 21 innings with the Yankees is legitimately good, albeit with small sample size caveats attached.

That all said, I’m not sure how things got to the point where Abreu is coming out of the bullpen to face a contender’s 4-5 hitters with a one-run lead and the go-ahead run at the plate in the seventh inning, as he did Wednesday. He inherited that situation Wednesday afternoon and eight pitches later the one-run lead was a one-run deficit. Finding a way to lose, that is.

Abreu has allowed seven of 12 inherited runners to score this year (58%), including six of nine with the Yankees (67%). The MLB average is 32%. It’s a small sample (if Abreu comes in with the bases loaded and two outs and gets a quick ground ball tomorrow, suddenly his season rate is 47%) but still, Abreu has failed spectacularly to strand inherited runners this year.

Chad Green and Mike King (and Miguel Castro) are hurt, plus the Yankees played 13 innings the night before and presumably were without Aroldis Chapman and Clay Holmes after they pitched the previous two days, but didn’t they trade for Scott Effross and Lou Trivino specifically so they could take on some of the high leverage workload? Is Abreu really in the Circle of Trust™? I mean, his recent usage says he is.

“We’ve got to get a couple guys going but I absolutely feel (the bullpen) is in a good spot, especially when we’re set up,” Boone told Dan Martin. “... (Abreu’s) command has not been as good the last few times. We’ll keep getting him out there to be where he needs to be.”

Stepping back and taking a big picture view of things, I understand force feeding Abreu high leverage situations now to see how he fares, and I understand sending Ron Marinaccio and Clarke Schmidt down to preserve depth. The Yankees are struggling right now, bordering on reeling, but they’re still 10 games up in the AL East, and can afford to try a few things. I get it.

I understand it but I also don’t like it. Maybe I’m just being a dumb emotional fan who’s annoyed the Yankees are losing a bunch and Abreu blew a winnable game, but what the hell? Schmidt spent how many days on the MLB roster and he barely got a look in high leverage spots. Marinaccio should be getting a look in a high leverage spots now, but he’s in Triple-A. Groan.

Abreu can be maddening but his stuff is so obviously dynamic. 100 mph sinkers are rare. I also think the Yankees are focusing a little too much on maximizing team control and not fielding the best possible roster. As good as he’s been with the Yankees, Abreu’s control and execution still haven’t been great, and now he’s being asked to do heavy bullpen lifting. Still, the Yankees seem committed to him.

Like I said, I understand trying things out with a 10-game lead, and I give the Yankees credit for not panicking during this recent downturn and sticking to their plan (something like changing a reliever’s usage is an easy fix anyway). So, if the Yankees aren’t going to part with Abreu to call up Marinaccio or Schmidt, at least nail down some wins and get things moving back in the right direction before shoehorning him into King’s old role.

Two-man army

Last season Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were a two-man army that carried the Yankees offensively, particularly in the second half. The two-man army is back this year, only now it’s Judge and LeMahieu. They’ve been amazing. The rest of the Yankees have been stinky. The numbers in the second half:

• Judge: .400/.533/.986 (312 wRC+), 12 HR, 22.2 K%, 20.0 BB% in 90 PA
• LeMahieu: .302/.404/.513 (166 wRC+), 4 HR, 12.4 K%, 14.6 BB% in 89 PA
• Everyone else: .208/.281/.348 (~82 wRC+), 17 HR, 23.5 K%, 7.9 BB% in 597 PA

Judge has outhomered the Marlins since the All-Star break (12 to 11). The Yankees have scored 94 runs in the second half and Judge has either scored or driven in 37 of them, or 39%. I don’t know what more he could do for his team. Judge is having the best all-around season by a Yankee since Alex Rodriguez in 2007. LeMahieu’s been really great too, especially lately.

The rest of the Yankees? Nope. On the whole they’ve performed like Joey Gallo since the All-Star break (82 wRC+ as a Yankee), albeit with more batting average and fewer strikeouts. Gleyber Torres is in the middle of the most poorly timed slump of his career. Aaron Hicks (walks) and Kiner-Falefa (singles) are one-dimensional in low impact ways. Andrew Benintendi hasn’t really gotten going yet. Stanton is out. On and on it goes.

I am here to praise Judge and LeMahieu, not dump on everyone else (though they’ve certainly earned it). Judge and LeMahieu have been outstanding. Judge would win the MLB MVP if such a thing existed, nevermind just the AL MVP. As for LeMahieu, look at the AL position player WAR leaderboard. I know he’s been awesome lately, but this really snuck up on me:

1. Aaron Judge: +6.9 WAR
2. Yordan Alvarez: +4.8 WAR
3. DJ LeMahieu: +4.6 WAR
4. Jose Ramirez: +4.1 WAR
5. Rafael Devers: +4.1 WAR

LeMahieu is tenth among all players in WAR (pitchers and hitters, AL and NL). It’s kinda amazing the Yankees have been so bad (7-13 in the second half) while Judge and LeMahieu have been so good, and props to them for being as good as they’ve been. Things would be so much worse without them. The rest of the offense really needs to pick up the slack. Come on, dudes.

Playing shorthanded

Anthony Rizzo returned to the lineup Wednesday after missing the previous five games with a back issue. Rizzo has had back trouble his entire career and he misses a few games here and there every season. It’s nothing new. The Yankees playing shorthanded is also nothing new. They do this thing where they play 5-6 days shorthanded rather than put the player on the injured list. It’s been going on for years and is hardly unique to Rizzo.

A backdated injured list stint would have started last Thursday, so two of Rizzo’s 10 days would have been off-days. By playing shorthanded, the Yankees had Rizzo available for three games more than they would have by putting him on the injured list. There were multiple times Sunday and Tuesday* where an extra bat would have come in handy. The Yankees had no one available for so many obvious pinch-hitting opportunities those two days.

* Kinda weird Rizzo was healthy enough to start at first base Wednesday afternoon but not healthy enough to pinch-hit Tuesday night, no? Some of those at-bats Tuesday were so bad that sending Rizzo up there and telling him not to swing might’ve been more productive because at least he could have drawn a walk (or gotten hit by a pitch). I’m not even joking.

Is having Rizzo available for three games (assuming he plays Friday and Saturday) worth not putting him on the injured list and playing shorthanded those other five games? Yeah, maybe, and I guess it depends who would replace Rizzo on the roster. Andujar? He wound up on the roster anyway because of Matt Carpenter’s injury. Estevan Florial? Oswaldo Cabrera? Burn a 40-man roster spot on Ronald Guzman?

I think that, once we begin talking about having a guy available for three extra games rather than five or six by not putting him on the injured list, it begins to defeat the purpose. The makeup of the bottom of the lineup means there are pinch-hitting opportunities every single night. I know I’m just wasting brainpower here. The Yankees have done the play shorthanded thing for years and there’s no reason to think they’ll stop. Doing it for three extra games just seems so silly.

Miscellany

Safe to say Nestor Cortes is over his midseason slump. He owns a 2.45 ERA (2.44 FIP) in his last five starts and has held hitters to a .185/.246/.233 batting line. Cortes has changed his pitch mix a bit the last few times out, throwing more four-seamers and sliders, and fewer cutters …

… and he’s also increased the number of sidearm deliveries and funky leg kicks. An attempt has been made to change the scouting report and give hitters different looks, and it’s working. For a while there it looked like the clock had struck midnight on Nestor’s dream season, but he’s made an adjustment, and is back to dominating. What a fun pitcher … Jameson Taillon walked three straight batters in the fourth inning Monday, including one with the bases loaded. He walked 12 batters in his first 18 starts (2.9%) and has now walked 12 batters in his last four starts (14.0%). Like everyone else in the rotation, Taillon caught a case of dingeritis the last few weeks, and his walk rate has risen with his home run rate:

Did the homers scare Taillon out of the strike zone? His zone rate has dipped in recent weeks as well, so perhaps the walks aren’t the product of being scared out of the zone, but rather the homers are the product of falling behind and having to come in the zone in more hitter’s counts? I dunno. Taillon wasn’t going to maintain a 2.9% walk rate all year – not counting the shortened pandemic season, no pitcher has thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title with a sub-3.0% walk rate since Josh Tomlin in 2016 (2.8%) – but walking as many batters in the last four starts as in the first 18 starts is not something I saw coming. Hopefully Taillon gets this under control. Actually, I’d rather he get the homers in check (10 in his last seven starts after eight in his first 15 starts). I can live with walks if you keep the ball in the park.

3. The pros and cons of calling up Peraza. The season is 112 games old, nearly 70% complete, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa firmly ranks among the least productive shortstops in baseball. His 79 wRC+ ranks 139th among the 149 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, and his +0.6 WAR ranks 24th among full-time shortstops. It’s been rough.

Kiner-Falefa was brought in as a stopgap because the Yankees a) didn’t want to shell out for a top free agent, and b) believe so much in Oswald Peraza and especially Anthony Volpe. Volpe’s having a very good season in Double-A. Peraza started slowly like Volpe, though he’s really picked it up of late, slashing .299/.372/.525 (137 wRC+) with 10 homers with Triple-A Scranton since June 1st.

“He’s putting together a strong season. Feel like he’s playing well after a little bit of a slow start. But we continue to be really excited about his future,” Aaron Boone told Brendan Kuty about Peraza last weekend. “He’s continued to build off what was a really strong 2021 season where he really established himself as a frontline prospect. He’s built on that and put together to this point another strong season, and it’s been better as it’s gone. That’s been encouraging. He’s putting himself in a position to certainly be in play if something comes up now, later in the year. But certainly another momentum-building season toward what we envision as part of our middle infield.”

By definition, a stopgap is a player holding down a position until someone better comes along, and Peraza might be better than Kiner-Falefa right now. We don’t know that for sure, but there’s only one way to find out. The Yankees don’t believe Peraza is big league ready (if they did, they’d call him up), but I think we’ve reached the point with Kiner-Falefa where alternatives must be considered. The trade deadline has passed. Peraza is the only alternative. In no particular order, here are the pros and cons of calling up Peraza to play shortstop.

Pro: The defense would improve. At least in theory. Kiner-Falefa is sitting on +6 DRS and -3 OAA, and while DRS tends to handle infielders a bit better than OAA, those numbers aren’t anything special for a glove-first guy hitting an empty .265. Also, Kiner-Falefa has had problems with routine plays, particularly short-hopping throws. You expect a glove-first guy to make routine plays routinely, and he hasn’t done that this year.

Peraza is billed a strong defensive shortstop – FanGraphs calls him a “good defender” while MLB.com goes with “smooth defender” – and Kiner-Falefa hasn’t set the bar that high. Make routine plays stress free and occasionally do something spectacular, and it’s an upgrade. The MLB game is much faster than the Triple-A game and it’s always possible Peraza gets eaten up by big league grounders. In that case, the Yankees can right back to Kiner-Falefa.

Con: There will likely be an adjustment period. There’s an adjustment period for just about every rookie. Wander Franco, Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, and Bobby Witt Jr. were the four best prospects in baseball over the last 18 months or so and all four needed several weeks to find their footing in the big leagues. The jump from Triple-A to MLB is a big one.

The book on Peraza coming into the season said he struggled against spin. He didn’t recognize breaking balls well and chased them out of the zone often. Improvement in that area is not something you can see in the box score, and his 23.1% strikeout rate since June 1st is good more than amazing. And even then it doesn’t tell us whether he’s chasing out of the zone or whiffing in the zone.

These days teams have a book on every player before he even makes his MLB debut. Peraza has had issues with spin throughout his career and opponents will look to exploit that as soon as he steps in the batter’s box. The old “make the rookie prove he can hit a fastball” thing is long gone. There is no mercy now. If elite prospects like Franco and Rodriguez needed a few weeks to figure things out, it’s fair to assume Peraza will as well, in which case how much of an upgrade is he really?

Pro: He’ll add power to the lineup. Again, in theory. Kiner-Falefa hasn’t hit a home run this season and he’s only hit 16 doubles too (zero triples), including only one double in his last 78 plate appearances. He ranks near the bottom of the league in average exit velocity (86.2 mph) and barrel rate (0.7%). Look at Kiner-Falefa’s spray chart. He rarely hits the ball over an outfielder:

Peraza has socked 15 homers this year, including eight in his last 29 games. We don’t have Statcast data for the Triple-A International League but we did see him hit a ball 107.8 mph in Spring Training (video). Kiner-Falefa’s done that three times on nearly 1,500 career batted balls. Here is what FanGraphs wrote about Peraza coming into the season:

Peraza seems to track pitches with his eyes extremely well and while his curt, top-hand-driven swing has a flat path, he still manages to hit a lot of line drives and fly balls. These three things in concert suggest that he has special feel for impacting the bottom half of the baseball, and not just for making frequent contact but for absolutely squaring it up.

Simply put, Peraza gives you a chance at more barreled up baseballs, and barreled up baseballs have a better chance to go for extra-base hits. It doesn’t have to be more homers*. More doubles would help too. Kiner-Falefa makes a lot of contact and that’s a valuable skill, but the contact he makes is poor and not all that productive. Peraza would be a contact quality upgrade.

* The Yankees lead baseball with 190 homers but Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton account for 95 of them, or 51%. Too much of the rest of the lineup is powerless.

Con: It puts a lot of pressure on the Peraza. I know we’d all say “they’re not expecting Peraza to be a savior,” but changing shortstops in August in the middle of an extended stretch of poor to mediocre play is going to put a lot of attention on the kid. It will be billed as the Yankees trying to give themselves a spark and maybe even panicking*. I don’t think it would be a panic move but I would certainly understand the sentiment. No doubt there would be a hint of desperation.

* A contender playing so poorly it needs a spark in August is a rough look. We reference Robbie Cano and Chien-Ming Wang coming up in 2005 and giving the Yankees a shot in the arm a lot around these parts, but a) there’s a reason we have to go back almost 20 years for a good example, and b) that turnaround had more to do with Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, and others starting to play up to expectations than it did the two rookies, even as good as they were.

To put it another way, is calling up Peraza now setting him up for success, or failure? Call him up when the team is rolling and it’s no big deal. He can be himself and go through any growing pains. Now though, the Yankees are struggling and the league is watching, and anything other than instant success will be a Very Big Deal. It’s not fair to Peraza, but he’s human, and he’ll be asked the questions and read the headlines.

Pro: Volpe can go to Triple-A. Peraza comes up to the big leagues and Volpe, who owns a .286/.383/.538 (147 wRC+) line since June 1st, makes the jump from Double-A Somerset to Triple-A Scranton behind him. The Yankees could promote Volpe right now anyway, a Peraza promotion isn’t necessary for a Volpe promotion, though it certainly makes things nice and easy. (The Yankees could also bump Trey Sweeney up from High-A Hudson Valley to Double-A behind Volpe.)

Con: It would start Peraza’s service time clock. Whooooo caaaaares. There is no service time reason to keep Peraza in Triple-A right now. He’s already been down long enough this year to push back free agency and avoid Super Two status. The only service time reason to keep Peraza down is making it easier to manipulate his service time next year, which the Yankees might be planning to do for all we know.

Peraza is a good prospect. A very good one, in fact. He is not an elite prospect and almost no one considers him a future star. Manipulating this guy’s service time is too cute by half. The Yankees are in the race right now, in 2022, and worrying about any player’s 2029 (!) season is senseless. I don’t think the Yankees are keeping Peraza down for service time reasons. I think they believe in Kiner-Falefa and aren’t 100% certain Peraza is ready, but yeah, any service time reason to keep Peraza in the minors right now would be extremely stupid.

Pro: The Yankees can keep Gonzalez. When I sketched this out earlier this week, I had “the Yankees would lose Marwin Gonzalez” on my list of cons. Gonzalez would be the obvious candidate to drop from the roster for Peraza, and once you designate Marwin for assignment, he’s gone, and there’s no bringing him back. Gonzalez can play anywhere and is useful as the last guy on the bench. Dump him for Peraza and Peraza flops, you’re suddenly short on the bench.

The Matt Carpenter injury changed things. Now the Yankees can simply call up Peraza, send down Miguel Andujar, and keep Gonzalez on the bench. Keeping Gonzalez is not really a “pro.” It’s more like “not a con.” Point is, Carpenter’s unfortunate injury makes the roster move so much easier. There is a clear and easy path to calling up Peraza without disrupting anything.

Con: He could be a downgrade. “He can’t be worse” is a terrible reason to promote a prospect because he can always be worse. Peraza could come up, hit .150 with a 35% strikeout rate thanks to the magic of big league breaking balls, and take his offensive struggles out to the field and become error prone. The “better than Kiner-Falefa” bar is low, but there’s still a lot of room under it.

I suppose you can also argue Peraza could come up and fail, and in the process develop bad habits and/or crush his confidence to the point where it derails his career. That’s possible, but it’s a game of failure (a lot of failure), and if the first taste of failure at the big league level is enough to throw a player’s career off track, he probably wasn’t going to make it anyway. Mostly, I just want to point out “he can’t be worse” is forever wrong. It can always be worse.

* * *

Is Kiner-Falefa the biggest problem with the Yankees right now? No. I’d say it’s the rotation collectively crashing back to Earth. But Kiner-Falefa is a problem, and if you can fix a problem, shouldn’t you do it? There is no order of operations. You don’t have to fix your biggest problem before moving on to the next thing. The Yankees have a ready-made shortstop alternative. It’s an easy fix, in theory.

When it comes to determining a prospect’s MLB readiness, I am willing to defer to the team. Any team with any prospect, not just the Yankees with Peraza. Teams have a lot – a LOT – more information than us and know the player better than we ever will. Kiner-Falefa is the shortstop because the Yankee believe he is the best man for the job. They could be completely wrong, but that’s their reasoning. There’s a lot we don’t know.

That said, I’m at the point now where I’m fed up with Kiner-Falefa, who is far from a championship-caliber shortstop. Peraza might be worse, it is very possible, but he also might be better? I’m ready to find out. It’s easy for me to say while sitting behind a keyboard, but I’m ready to find out. Kiner-Falefa isn’t good. We know that definitively. We have years of data telling us that. Peraza might be good. He might not, but he might, and I’m ready to give him a shot.

4. Rapid fire thoughts. Two possible nightmare scenarios opened up earlier this week. First, Marc Topkin reported the Rays are planning to decline their $13M club option for Kevin Kiermaier after the season. He has not played since July 9th and recently had season-ending surgery to repair a torn hip labrum. And second, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said the team will release Jason Heyward after the season. Heyward has not played since June 24th due to a knee issue and won’t play again this season. Chicago will be on the hook for his $22M salary next year and any other team can sign him for the prorated minimum salary. I saw the Kiermaier and Heyward news at basically the same time and suddenly got “Brian Roberts replaces Robinson Cano” flashbacks. The Yankees wanted Heyward back in the day. Imagine Heyward coming in to be a cheap right field replacement for Aaron Judge? Like I said, nightmare scenario. I don’t think either Heyward or Kiermaier will happen, but man, who knows … And finally, the Tigers fired GM Al Avila earlier this week. The timing is a little weird (why wait until after the trade deadline?) but better late than never. When I wrote about Tarik Skubal as a possible trade target, I noted Avila has made some really terrible trades during Detroit’s rebuild, so much so that they might have to start a new rebuild this offseason. Tigers owner Chris Ilitch seems like the typical second generation owner who prioritizes profit margins over championships (ahem), and if he hires a payroll efficiency nerd to replace Avila, then yeah, Skubal could be available this winter. Maybe even Riley Greene? Man I’d love the Yankees to get their hands on that kid. A young lefty hitting MLB-ready outfielder with star potential is exactly what they need. Hopefully Ilitch hires someone who convinces him to start over and trade all his best players for quantity rather than quality to build farm system depth, the way Mike Elias did with the Orioles. Fingers crossed.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Neil asks: Is it time to overreact yet? The Yanks have gone from >.700 baseball in June to .500 in July and 2-7 start to August. Can it all be regression to the mean + injuries? Or are we seeing more of the "true talent" Yankees now than we did in April-June?

Unless the Yankees turn things around soon, it won’t be long before this stretch of mediocrity (22-25 in their last 47 games) is as long as their stretch of dominance (49-16 in their first 65 games). The Yankees are 71-41, which is a 103-win pace, but I gotta say, going 29-21 the rest of the way to finish with 100 wins looks like it will be a challenge. Imagine starting that hot and then not winning 100 games? Oy vey.

I know this is an unsatisfying answer but the truth is somewhere in the middle. The Yankees are not the world-beaters they were earlier this year and they’re not the .500-ish club they’ve been the last few weeks. I pegged them as a 92-94 win team before the season, and Aaron Judge having a potentially historic season instead of a merely excellent season is kinda thing that can elevate a 92-94 win team to a 98-100 win team, which is probably where the Yankees will finish.

The Yankees aren’t truly a .500-ish team, I don’t think, but let’s not kid ourselves here. There are valid concerns with this team. The rotation has a bad case of dingeritis. Clay Holmes has been out of whack lately and Jonathan Loaisiga has been out of whack all season. There are too many unproductive hitters in the everyday lineup (and the Yankees seem unmotivated to make changes). The manager has a knack for getting outfoxed. These are things that can derail a season.

Is it time to panic? No, I don’t think we’re there yet as long the AL East lead is as big as it is. But we can not panic while also acknowledging troubling signs. The Yankees badly need Giancarlo Stanton to get healthy, Gleyber Torres to snap out of his slump, and Josh Donaldson’s recent hot streak to be something more than a few good games. And for the pitching to sort itself out. I’m worried, yeah. Not in panic mode yet, but worried. There are red flags aplenty.

Philip asks: Why, after being loudly proclaimed “The Yankees’ Center Fielder” by the media and the team, and saying he prefers to play center, has Aaron Judge been moved back to right? Showcasing Hicks for trade next year? Hicks’ recovering arm? Bad defensive metrics? Reduced wear and tear? Something doesn’t quite make sense. Possible the Yanks were “showcasing” Judge as part of a possible trade, maybe for Ohtani?

I’m a bit surprised the Yankees moved Aaron Judge back to right field following the Andrew Benintendi trade. They put Judge in center and Aaron Hicks in left earlier this year because they believed it was their best defensive alignment, and it was. Judge is a better center fielder than Hicks and Hicks is a better left fielder than he is a center fielder. I thought they’d stick Hicks in right after adding Benintendi, and keep Judge in center, but nope. Judge went back to right.

I think Hicks in center and Judge in right is 100% about preserving Judge. A few weeks ago he missed a little time with what the Yankees vaguely described as “lower body soreness,” and there’s much less running in right field. With a big division lead, the Yankees can afford to look at the big picture and weaken the outfield defense a bit in exchange for keeping Judge on the field. I assume that’s their thinking, anyway. If it is, I’m 100% onboard with it.

As for the showcasing stuff, nah. There was never a realistic chance the Yankees would trade Judge this year (they would’ve had to have been so far out of the race at the deadline to even consider it, and that was never gonna happen with the expanded postseason field) and a few extra games in center field in August and September won’t change Hicks’ trade value. I think it’s all about preserving Judge and not making him run around any more than necessary the rest of the way*.

* Matt Carpenter’s injury has thrown a wrench into things, but I gotta think the master plan for the postseason was Benintendi in left, Judge in center, Carpenter in right, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Hicks on the bench.

Jonathan asks: What do you think is really the plan for Florial? It seems like the Yankees keep acquiring players that mimic his floor.

It’s not crazy to say Harrison Bader, Tim Locastro, and especially Andrew Benintendi are better MLB players than Estevan Florial right now. Florial has cooled off the last few weeks (13-for-62 (.210) with 26 strikeouts since the All-Star break) and he still swings and misses so much that I’m not sure how much he’d contribute offensively at the big league level. He can really defend and run though, but so can those other guys. They allow the Yankees to keep Florial in Triple-A so he can get as many reps as possible in his final minor league option year.

I could see the master plan for 2023 being something like Aaron Hicks in left, Bader in center, and Aaron Judge in right with Florial on the bench as the frequently used fourth outfielder. The Yankees have to re-sign Judge, obviously, and they could look to move Hicks in the offseason (they tried to move him and Josh Donaldson at the deadline), in which case they’d need a new left fielder. That’s not the most difficult position to fill though.

I don’t think there’s any chance the Yankees install Florial as a starting outfielder on Opening Day 2023. It’s MLB or waivers next season, so he’ll either be on the big league roster or traded, but that doesn’t mean he has to start. Letting Florial begin his career as a fourth outfielder and then giving him more playing time as he earns it is a-okay with me. I’m not sure Florial makes it through the offseason with the Yankees. If he does, a fourth outfielder role to begin 2023 is most likely.

Chris asks: With Marinaccio and Schmidt getting demoted, the Yankees have been unfairly abusing some players' MiLB options the last few months (years?). Looking back, they've done similar things with Andujar, Frazier, and others. My question is: if you were an international free agent, why would you want to come to the Yankees? Do you think international free agents will begin factoring that into their decision making, and do you think Cashman thinks about these optics as well? I know the large signing bonus is usually the biggest influencer for IFAs, but at some point their representatives will realize the path to the Majors (which equals higher pay and earlier free agency) is quicker through other teams, right? (I'm asking mainly about IFAs since they 1) don't have a draft, and 2) because that's where a sizable amount of our young talent has come from.)

Every team does this. It’s not just the Yankees. The Rays and Dodgers cycle through relievers at an even greater rate than the Yankees. That doesn’t make it fair or less exploitative. Optioning players out and employing a bullpen (or bench) shuttle isn’t against the rules though. The MLBPA is trying to curb it, hence the new five options per year rule, but I have no idea how to stop it entirely. Teams have to be able to send players down and make roster changes because sometimes players deserve to be sent down, and there's nothing more to it (service time, need a fresh arm, etc.).

Would this factor into my decision when picking a team? Yeah, I guess so, but good luck finding a team that won’t swap out optionable players. They all do it. It’s not against the rules but it still kinda sucks. Ron Marinaccio and Clarke Schmidt are MLB caliber pitchers who belong in MLB but are stuck in Triple-A because they have options remaining. There are no other reasons. The Yankees are hardly alone in doing this, but “every team is doing it” doesn’t make it okay. It’s still a pretty crummy way to treat players.

Jack asks: Ninth inning, must-win game. Yankees up by one, three outs away from victory. Right now, which reliever do you want coming in to get those final outs? I figure it's a good time to figure out who the closer is for a World Series contender.

Clay Holmes. He’s struggled a bit lately but he’s still the best reliever in the bullpen. I’m not gonna jump ship over what amounts to three bad appearances in the last month. I’m not even sure who would be next in line for me behind Holmes. I guess Scott Effross or Lou Trivino? Maybe Wandy Peralta? Yeah, I’d go with Magic Wandy as my backup plan right night. Holmes has struggled lately, no doubt about it, but it’s mostly poor location. It’s not like he’s getting smacked around the yard. Holmes got his control ironed out seemingly overnight when he joined the Yankees last year and there’s no reason he can’t do it again. Executing well and getting hit hard is much scarier to me than a guy losing the zone. I’m still in on Holmes.

Will asks: I am baking (feels like 107 according to my phone) in Busch Stadium right now. The first five innings have taken three hours. My kids are being good sports but I am acutely feeling the pace of play. What is the Yankees slow pace of play a reflection of?

Will, you deserve a steak dinner and a firm handshake for sitting through that game Sunday (with kids!). I watched at home in glorious air conditioning and I still felt miserable. That game was an absolute slog. One of the least enjoyable baseball watching experiences of my lifetime and that would have been true even if the Yankees managed to comeback and win.

The Yankees are averaging 3:14 per nine innings this season. That’s well above the 3:04 league average but below last year’s 3:19 mark, and essentially the same as their 3:13 mark in 2019, the last pre-pandemic season.  The Yankees have played 39 sub-three hours games this year and are on pace for 56. They played 41 last year and 55 in 2019.

There are certainly times a long game wears on you, but pace is the real killer. I can live with a four-hour game if it’s humming along and things are happening. When there’s a lot of standing around between pitches and whatnot, that’s when games can turn into a real drag. Here are the Yankees pace numbers over the years:

That’s the average time between pitches (in seconds) within an at-bat. PitchCom became a thing this season and Yankees pitchers are indeed working more quickly, and the league average is down quite a bit too. The league average is still higher than it was as recently as 2019 though. Not every team is all-in on PitchCom like the Yankees. As it catches on, hopefully the league-wide pace improves even more.

What is the slow pace a reflection of? I’m not entirely sure. A few hitters on the Yankees, namely Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, are very good at just staying in the box. They take a pitch and stand right there and wait for the next one. Others, like Aaron Hicks, take a pitch and then step out to adjust their batting gloves or whatever. Nestor Cortes is far and away the best on the staff at getting the ball and throwing the next pitch. He works very quickly.

Sunday was an outlier game with a lot of long at-bats (39 of 92* batters saw at least five pitches), a lot of walks (12 combined), a lot of strikeouts (20 combined), and five mid-inning pitching changes. I’m sure the heat at the ballpark made the pace even more unbearable. The pace of play around baseball is a bit better this year than last year, though it’s still slower than it was 3-4 years ago. I am pro-pitch clock. Speeding up the pace of play is a worthwhile endeavor.

* 92 batters in a nine-inning game? Good gravy. The Yankees sent 44 men to the plate Sunday. The Cardinals sent 48.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)