August 8th, 2022: Montas, Judge, Marinaccio, Schmidt, Holmes, Prospects, Waiver Targets, Bard

The Yankees are 9-16 in their last 25 games, including 6-15 against teams other than the Royals, and that’s with Aaron Judge playing out of his mind. I’d be less annoyed about this if the Yankees didn’t suddenly look so much like the 2021 Yankees and/or had shown the ability to get off the mat the last few years. When the Aaron Boone era Yankees slump, we tend to hear “we need to get it right and we know we can” until the clock strikes midnight. Anyway, here is Tuesday morning’s post Monday afternoon because the Yankees are in Seattle and West Coast night games don’t count.

1. Weekend thoughts. Who knew Joey Gallo was the straw that stirs the drink? The Yankees are 0-5 since trading Gallo and the Dodgers are 6-0 since getting Gallo. Maybe it’s the Curse of No. 13. They finally reissued Alex Rodriguez’s number and everything’s falling apart. Better retire it just to be safe. Anyway, a few thoughts on the last few games.

Montas roughed up

Admit it, it’s at least a little funny things have gone so poorly since the trade deadline. Andrew Benintendi replaced Gallo and has somehow been a downgrade. The Yankees didn’t get Luis Castillo and then got shut down by Castillo (and probably will again Tuesday). They traded away Jordan Montgomery and then got shut down by Montgomery. Then Frankie Montas got beat up in his Yankees debut and Scott Effross allowed the putaway homer. Not sure you could script it any worse.

“My mechanics weren’t in sync. I wasn’t having the best delivery today. I was all over the place. But my arm feels good and that’s what I care about,” Montas told Mark Saxon after his start. ”... I’m excited to be here. I wanted to go out there and show what I can do. That was not the case today, but this is not my last one. This is the first one.”

I don’t think you can pass any judgment on Montas after Sunday’s start. It was his first start in 11 days, it was an emotional week for him after his mother-in-law passed away, and he didn’t join the Yankees and get with the pitching coaches and catchers until Saturday. His location was erratic and he didn’t appear to have feel for his splitter, things you can reasonably attribute to the long layoff.

That said, the vibes around this team are wretched right now, and the top deadline pickup giving up five runs in three innings (while on a pitch count) is brutal. Montas faced 18 hitters Sunday, retired only nine, and six of the nine baserunners reached with two strikes. That includes going from 0-2 to a walk against end of the line Yadier Molina* to spark that five-run second inning.

* Molina is hitting .208/.228/.279 (43 wRC+) this year and yet he had two hits and two walks in the series (his third and fourth walks of the season!). Between that and Paul DeJong (up to .157/.254/.333 and 69 wRC+) getting the game-winning hit twice, it was a masterclass in getting beat by bad hitters.

Benintendi will be fine (as long as you’re not expecting him to hit .320 like he did with the Royals) and maybe those two hits Sunday are a sign he’s about to get going. He’s a ground ball singles hitter and those dudes tend to run hot and cold. Look at Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Feels like he’s either 15-for-30 or 2-for-25 at any given moment, with no in-between. Benintendi will (probably) be fine. It’s still okay to be annoyed he’s been a dud to date.

The Yankees are finding ways to lose like bad teams do. The All-Star closer blew a lead Friday, they pitched but didn’t hit Saturday, and they hit but didn’t pitch Sunday. The trifecta of suckiness right there. You’re never as good as you look when you’re playing your best and you’re never as bad as you look when you’re playing your worst, and that’s good news for the Yankees, because right now they look as bad as they’ve looked at any point this year. That the deadline didn’t give them a shot in the arm is icing on the crap cake.

“We’re definitely going through it right now. We’re frustrated with how we’ve played, but still feel really good about our team and how we’ve done this year as a whole,” DJ LeMahieu told Dan Martin after Sunday’s loss. “When we get a good pitching game, we don’t hit, and vice versa. “We’re in one of those (stretches). The last five games we’ve been grinding.”

Judge’s walks

With Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton hurt, Aaron Judge is the only reliable source of power in the lineup, and opponents know it. This graph is only gonna get more spikey:

“He does get pitched around some,” Aaron Boone told Martin over the weekend. “We’ve seen that more lately, teams blatantly pitching around him. He’s done a really good job of having quality at-bats … Eventually, they’ve got to pitch to guys. We’ve got a pretty formidable lineup.”

The Cardinals only pitched to Judge when they had to this past weekend – he hit with the bases loaded twice Sunday and drove in two runs each time – and there’s no way that will change. It won’t change even once Rizzo returns, because pitching around Judge started when Rizzo was healthy. Rizzo’s been good this year, but he’s not Judge, and other teams would rather face him.

And, obviously, this is 100% the correct move. Judge has been incredible this season and too much of the rest of the lineup won’t make you pay. Worst case is they’ll slap some singles. The Yankees went 9-for-31 (.290) with runners in scoring position in St. Louis, which is objectively very good, but the nine hits were seven singles and two doubles. Singles and doubles will only take you so far.

"I’ll take nine runs all the time,” Boone told Erik Boland following Sunday’s loss. “We’re swinging the bats well. We had one game where we got shut down yesterday. Otherwise, we’re having the right kind of at-bats. They kept us in the ballpark other than DJ there at the very end, and that’s the difference.”

Judge is having the best season by a Yankee since A-Rod in 2007 and opposing teams have responded accordingly. He’s getting pitched around frequently and Judge is disciplined enough to take those walks. He has an 18.4% walk rate in the second half and a 23.2% walk rate in the last 10 games. I could absolutely see it hovering around 20% the rest of the season.

Taking the bat out of Judge’s hands is the single best way to stifle the Yankees offensively and the Yankees can only do one thing to prevent it: get runners on base in front of him. Rizzo and Stanton returning likely won’t stop teams from pitching around Judge, but putting runners on base and giving the other team nowhere to put him will stop it.

Even after the 0-for-32 skid, Aaron Hicks is still running a .347 OBP, and he’s the perfect candidate to be the “second” leadoff hitter in the No. 9 spot. LeMahieu’s been great the last few weeks, so Hicks ninth and LeMahieu leadoff is the best way to get runners on base for Judge*. Either way, it’s imperative other guys in the lineup pick up the slack. Judge can only do so much and that goes double now that he’s being pitched around.

* I guess the Yankees could bump Judge down to third and hit Benintendi second, but eh, I’d rather bat Judge second to give him a better chance at that one extra at-bat in the ninth inning. Plus I’m not convinced the .380 OBP he put up with the Royals earlier this year is his true talent level. He had a .333 OBP in over 1,000 plate appearances from 2019-21, including a .324 OBP in 2021.

Marinaccio demoted

I totally understand why it happened but I don’t have to like it. Ron Marinaccio was sent down to Triple-A Scranton over the weekend to clear a roster spot for Montas. He is the rookie with no bullpen seniority and those are the guys who are sent out first, even though Marinaccio pitched very well after being recalled in May: 22.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 11 BB, 26 K, 1 HR.

Marinaccio and Clarke Schmidt have both pitched well for the Yankees this season and yet they find themselves in Triple-A because of the numbers crunch, and that has to be demoralizing. You pitch as well as you can, do everything asked of you (Schmidt in particular had to bounce between undefined roles), and it’s still not good enough to stick. It sucks.

“They also understand we’re not in a position right now to be getting rid of pitchers to make room,” Boone told Martin about Marinaccio and Schmidt. “Unfortunately for them, it’s the point in their careers they have options.”

Domingo German is apparently out of options. Sites that track this stuff had it listed incorrectly and people with the Yankees say he’s out of options and has to pass through waivers to go to the minors. The Yankees don’t want to do that and they seem intent on giving German a long leash. Only five pitchers on the big league staff have a minor league option(s) remaining:

• Nestor Cortes: Not going anywhere.
• Scott Effross: Not going anywhere. Sunday aside, he’s been great this year.
• Jonathan Loaisiga: Maybe he should’ve gone down? Not a crazy thought.
• Wandy Peralta: Has enough service time to refuse a demotion.
• Lou Trivino: The Yankees didn’t trade for him to demote him.

Like it or not, Aroldis Chapman isn’t going anywhere, so, realistically, the only two candidates to come off the roster are Albert Abreu and Lucas Luetge. Luetge has pitched well in a low leverage role (2.82 ERA and 2.88 FIP) and is the closest thing the Yankees have to a long man. With a 13-man pitching staff, someone will get stuck being the “the last guy in the bullpen who doesn’t pitch much” guy, and Luetge’s a good fit for that role.

Abreu has shown promise at times and obviously the Yankees want to see it through. Why he’s suddenly being asked to throw multiple innings in close games, which he’s done in three of his last four appearances, I do not know. Is the Mike King injury really enough to push Abreu directly into the Circle of Trust™ after like 15 encouraging innings? It seems so.

I understand sending Marinaccio down so you can keep the other out of options bullpeners and preserve depth, and I understand sending Schmidt down so he can remain stretched out as a rotation option*. There’s something to be said for putting your best players on the roster and not playing the numbers game though. Are Marinaccio and Schmidt two of the 13 best pitchers in the organization? If the Yankees believe the answer is yes, then put them on the roster.

* In hindsight, flipping Peralta or even Loaisiga for a prospect(s) at the trade deadline to further get the 40-man roster in order, replenish the prospect pipeline, and ensure a bullpen spot was available for Marinaccio or Schmidt wouldn’t have been a bad idea.

You know what else stinks? The Yankees (and every other team) can only call up one additional pitcher (and one additional position player) in September under the new roster expansion rules. It’ll be Marinaccio or Schmidt in September, not Marinaccio and Schmidt, and it might be neither if Zack Britton makes it back*. Why the MLBPA immediately agreed to only two extra roster spots instead of a gradual decline from, say, 40 to 30 to 34 to 30 to 28, I’ll never understand.

* FYI: Britton faced hitters in live batting practice in Tampa last week, as scheduled. He threw a bullpen session over the weekend and will face hitters again later this week.

Marinaccio turned 27 last month. Schmidt turns 27 in January and has thrown only 52.1 innings this year (Triple-A and MLB!). At some point you have to get this show on the road, you know? There’s a difference between preserving depth and wasting bullets, especially with a pitcher with Schmidt’s injury history, and the Yankees are dangerously close to wasting bullets with these two. I appreciate the depth. I also think Marinaccio and Schmidt can help the Yankees, and right now they're in the minors and aren’t being given that opportunity.

Miscellany

Clay Holmes blew the game Friday night but I thought he looked pretty good. I didn’t like the pitch selection to Tyler O’Neill on the walk preceding DeJong’s go-ahead double. 11 of his first 12 pitches were sinkers and he was pounding the zone, getting two grounders (including an infield single) and a strikeout against the first three batters. Then he went to his slider and missed a bunch to let O’Neill off the hook in a two-strike count. The sinker that ran back over the plate to DeJong was just a mistake. Holmes blowing games is happening at the worst possible time, but I don’t think he looked anywhere near as bad Friday as he did during his meltdowns against the Reds and Royals … And finally, good for Montgomery. He got traded and had to listen to all that stuff about the Yankees not believing he would be in their postseason rotation, and he responded by shutting them down in his first start with his new team. A week later, that trade still makes little sense. It was too cute by half.

2. Prospect thoughts. On June 8th, Triple-A Scranton got swept in a doubleheader in Syracuse to fall to 19-36. They have gone 35-14 since then and are back in the postseason race. Quite a turnaround for the RailRiders. Also, Double-A Somerset is a juggernaut. They’re 62-39 (.614) and have the third best winning percentage in a full season minor league. Now here are a few thoughts on a few prospects.

Volpe’s progress

SS Anthony Volpe’s slow start feels like a lifetime ago. He’s hitting .284/.374/.547 (146 wRC+) since June 1st to raise his season batting line to .246/.346/.469 (120 wRC+) through 405 plate appearances. Baseball America (subs. req’d) recently noted Volpe is the only player in the minors with 25 doubles, 15 homers, and 35 steals. Arbitrary numbers, but neat nonetheless.

The ability to hit the ball hard and run the bases well and play good defense is great, but the core of Volpe’s skill set is his strike zone command and his swing decisions. Splitting his season into thirds, we can see Volpe has really progressed in those areas as he’s gotten more experience against Double-A pitching:

• First 30 games: 25.4 K% and 13.8 BB%
• Middle 30 games: 15.9 K% and 6.8 BB%
• Last 30 games: 12.2 K% and 14.4 BB%

Look at the strikeout rate! There’s a pretty good correlation between minor league strikeout rate and MLB strikeout rate. Volpe has steadily cut down on his strikeouts while being three years younger than the average Eastern League player. Also, his 9.7% swinging strike rate is identical to what he did in his half-season in High-A last year. That’s very promising.

Through no fault of his own, there’s a lot of pressure on Volpe. The Yankees ignored all the top free agent shortstops last offseason and they took Volpe off the table in Luis Castillo trade talks. That, plus ranking as one of the game’s top 10 prospects, put the kid under a microscope. Then he started the season poorly. I’m sure that only put more pressure on Volpe.

To deal with all that attention and pressure, get off to a slow start, then shake it all off and excel is a hell of an accomplishment. It doesn’t mean Volpe will succeed long-term – hitting a big league slider is hard! – but the kid seems very mentally tough, and elite at making adjustments. We all want top prospects to cruise through the minors and dominate. Handling adversity is a huge part of this game and seeing a top prospect do it can be just as satisfying though, and Volpe did it this year.

Wells in Double-A

In his first four Double-A games last month C Austin Wells went 1-for-17 (.059) with eight strikeouts, and looked overmatched. In the 19 games since he’s hitting .311/.386/.500 (142 wRC+) with a 19.3% strikeout rate. That’s much more like it. Wells went deep in three straight games at one point and had recently had a 16-game hitting streak.

“I just think I’ve gotten my rhythm back after missing time,” Wells told Cory Annan about missing a month following a foul tip to the groin. “It’s different going from rehab games to actual games in (Double-A), so it really just took me a few games to find my footing and I haven’t looked back since.”

Wells has hit everywhere the Yankees have sent him since being a first round pick in 2020, so he’s been as advertised at the plate. His work behind the plate is the big question and trying to get information on his defensive work is like pulling teeth. It sounds like he’s improving and making progress, but still isn’t good defensively.

At this point next season (possibly earlier) we’re going to be talking about Wells as a call up candidate. I don’t know where he’s ultimately going to play – Anthony Rizzo at first base in 2023 to Wells in 2024 lines up nicely, doesn’t it? – but the bat ensures he’s going to play somewhere. Wells can really hit. I just wish we had a little clarity on his long-term position.

Hermann rising

Breakout is too strong a word but RHP Sean Hermann, last year’s 14th round pick, is a prospect on the rise. The recently turned 19-year-old was dominant in the rookie Florida Complex League, throwing 33.1 innings with a 2.43 ERA (3.33 FIP) and very good strikeout (30.6%), walk (4.5%), and ground ball (54.2%) rates earlier this year.

Hermann has since been bumped up to Low-A Tampa (10.1 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 10 K), where he effectively took RHP Chandler Champlain’s rotation spot after Champlain was traded for Andrew Benintendi. It’s only two starts and 162 total pitches, but we have some pitch data now that he’s in Tampa. Hermann’s averages:

• Sinker: 90.7 mph and 2,180 rpm (topped out at 93.1 mph)
• Slider: 83.3 mph and 2,503 rpm
• Changeup: 86.2 mph and 1,827 rpm

Hermann is listed at 6-foot-0 and 160 lbs. and the hope is he’ll add velocity as he fills out and gets his fastball into the 92-94 mph range more consistently. The spin on his slider is very good and supposedly the changeup is his best pitch, at least in terms of how advanced it is and how comfortable he is throwing it. It’s three legitimate pitches.

The sinker is new – Hermann threw a traditional four-seamer in high school – and has run like a two-seamer and also a flat approach angle that causes hitters to swing under it like a four-seamer, which is unique. JP Sears has the same characteristics on his fastball, albeit from the left side. It has that two-seam run but is still effective up in the zone.

Squint your eyes and you can see a Mike King starter kit. And for a 14th round high schooler who wasn’t a top prospect (not among Baseball America’s top 500 draft prospects) and didn’t get a big bonus ($135,000), that would be an amazing outcome. Hermann needs to add a little to his fastball and continue refining his game overall, but the early returns are very promising.

Guzman trying to become a two-way player

Former Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzman, who is hitting .239/.346/.398 (102 wRC+) with Triple-A Scranton, is working to become a two-way player, reports Conor Foley. Guzman has been throwing bullpen sessions with the RailRiders and hopes to pitch in a game before the season lets out. Apparently he’s hit 96 mph too, which is especially notable because he’s a lefty.

“I really believe I can do both,” Guzman told Foley. “So, now that I’ve started doing pitching, I’m going to give it time. Obviously if I’m good enough – I believe I’m good enough – that’s the only question, if I’m going to be able to compete at a high level. I don’t want to be just a mediocre pitcher that plays first. I want to be elite (at) pitching, elite defender, and then pull some good at-bats and be an elite hitter too.”

Guzman turns 28 in October and he’s never hit much in the big leagues (career .207/.304/.414 and 84 wRC+), and it’s not like he’s tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A this season either. Maybe he should convert to pitch full-time if things start to come together on the mound? Being a two-way player is insanely hard (duh). Shohei Ohtani can do it because a) he’s outrageously talented, and b) he's worked at it and trained to do it his entire life.

A few years back Christian Bethancourt and Brett Eibner, two Quad-A types like Guzman, tried to become two-way players, and they wound up stinking at hitting and pitching. This far along in Guzman’s career, it might be best to give up hitting and focusing on pitching full-time rather than do both. Especially as a hard-throwing lefty. Those guys get a million chances.

The minor league season ends next month and I have no idea whether the Yankees intend to re-sign Guzman and see this two-way player thing through, but I hope it works out for him. It’s ambitious and no one has successfully make that transition this late in their career, but someone has to be the first. If nothing else, just opening the door to pitching could help Guzman carve out a second phase to his career.

Yankees sign Gerber

Last month the Yankees signed righty reliever Joey Gerber to a minor league contract, according to the minor league transactions log (and Gerber himself). An eighth round pick by the Mariners in 2018, Gerber missed 2021 with back surgery and the start of 2022 with a forearm strain. He threw one rehab inning in rookie ball before getting released in June.

Gerber, 25, allowed eight runs in 15.2 innings with the Mariners during the shortened pandemic season and he was a legitimate prospect not too long ago. Baseball America (subs. req’d) had him as the No. 21 prospect in Seattle’s system last spring. Here’s part of their scouting report (here’s video):

Gerber pitches with a funky, crossfire delivery that adds deception to an electric fastball. His stuff generally was down in the majors, with his fastball averaging 94 mph after sitting 96-98 mph in the minors. His heater has natural sink with armside run from a low three-quarters delivery that makes hitters uncomfortable, but also makes it difficult to command. Gerber's mid-80s slider has flashed plus, and he's shown the ability to command it better than his fastball. Overall his control is below-average … If he gets his velocity back up, he has potential to be a high-leverage reliever.

The spin on Gerber’s fastball was better than average in 2020 and he had a very flat approach angle, which is conducive to swings and misses up the zone. The ball stays on plane through the zone and hitters keep swinging under it. That was also two years and two major injuries ago, and who knows what Gerber looks like these days. The guy’s thrown 16.2 innings since 2019.

Gerber is a pure lottery ticket signing after all the injuries and lost time. He’s still only 25 though, and he had prospect pedigree not too long ago. Gerber strikes me as a candidate to show up to Spring Training next season looking like an entirely new pitcher. Maybe a sinker instead of a four-seamer, the sweeper, etc. The Yankees presumably signed him with things in mind.

The minor league regular season ends in six weeks and, if healthy, Gerber might get something like 10-15 innings in this year. There’s probably a 2023 component to his contract, either a guaranteed year or an option. So we’ll see where this leads. Gerber is not the typical minor league deal reliever. There’s a little upside here, depending what he looks like post-injuries.

Miscellany

OF Spencer Jones, this year's first round pick, is 5-for-10 with a double, a homer, a walk, and two strikeouts in three games to begin his pro career. He's in the rookie Florida Complex League tuning up (Vanderbilt's season ended June 6th) and I assume he'll join Low-A Tampa in a week so. At that point we'll get exit velocity data and all that fun stuff. For now, Jones has begun his pro career nicely ... RHP Greg Weissert has long been a high spin slider guy (high spin as in nearly 3,000 rpm) and he added a sinking two-seamer this season, according to Foley. The result is a 1.94 ERA (3.00 FIP) with a career high 37.1% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate that is his lowest since he was in High-A in 2018. Weissert is pitching well as Triple-A Scranton’s closer and he will be a minor league free agent after the season. Letting a reliever with Triple-A success and a top notch slider walk would be kinda silly. I think Weissert’s going on the 40-man roster, even if only so the Yankees can trade him and get something in return. That’s what they did with Nick Rumbelow a few years ago (Sears was one of the two prospects they got in return and the other, Juan Then, went back to the Mariners in the Edwin Encarnacion trade) … C Antonio Gomez, the best catching prospect in the system among players who are certain to catch long-term, started so poorly with Low-A Tampa (.179/.281/.232 and 57 wRC+) that the Yankees had to demote him to Extended Spring Training in May for a reset. In 52 games since rejoining the Tarpons: .279/.367/.397 (124 wRC+). Gomez hasn’t lit up Statcast with big exit velocities, but he’s a 20-year-old catcher. Catchers typically develop slowly because the position carries so much responsibility, and Gomez was able to turn his season around following that demotion to ExST. Not a great year for him, though it is nice to see Gomez work through some struggles and get on track so quickly … And finally, veteran UTIL Derek Dietrich was hit with a 50-game suspension over the weekend. He tested positive for a banned substance. Dietrich hit .244/.308/.402 (87 wRC+) in 41 games with Triple-A Scranton before going down with a knee injury last month. He hasn’t played since July 12th and he’s not going to play the rest of the season now. Seems like a possible “I have nothing to lose because my career might be over otherwise” gamble. Either way, Dietrich is done for the year. One fewer body for the RailRiders.

3. Waiver salary dump candidates. The trade deadline has passed and adding players from outside the organization is now much more difficult, though not impossible. Non-40-man roster players can be traded as long as they have not spent a single day on a 40-man roster this year. The Yankees can’t trade Miguel Andujar but they can trade Ronald Guzman. They could even trade Jasson Dominguez and Anthony Volpe, not that they would.

There’s also the “waiver salary dump” maneuver. The old August (and September) waiver trade system went away in 2019 and waivers became a way to dump salary. Waiver claims are now coordinated ahead of time. One team tells the other “we can’t trade you anything for that guy, but if you put him on waivers, we’ll claim him and you’ll save money.” The Yankees did this with Cory Gearrin in Aug. 2019, saving the last place Mariners about $300,000 in real money for a free agent-to-be reliever they weren’t planning to re-sign.

August waiver claims, specifically waiver claims involving established big league players, have increased since waiver trades were eliminated. Here are the number of waiver claims the last few Augusts (ignoring the shortened pandemic season):

• 2017: 15 (notables: Cameron Maybin)
• 2018: 12 (notables: Matt Adams, Rene Rivera)
• 2019: 22 (notables: Freddy Galvis, Kevin Gausman, Billy Hamilton, Jared Hughes)
• 2021: 32 (notables: Asdrubal Cabrera, Sean Doolittle, Jarrod Dyson, Jose Quintana)

Waiver trades went away in 2019 and the August waiver claim rate nearly doubled, with many more bona fide big leaguers being moved. You’re unlikely to get an impact player in a coordinated August claim – don’t hold your breath for Willson Contreras – but you can get depth players to help you down the stretch and even into the postseason.

The postseason-eligibility deadline remains 11:59pm ET on Aug. 31st. Players must be in the organization by then to be eligible for the postseason roster. They don’t have to be on the MLB roster, but they have to be in the organization. No exceptions. So, any coordinated waiver salary dumps must be completed within the next three weeks for the player to be eligible for October.

Here are a handful of players who could interest the Yankees in an August waiver salary dump. The players are listed alphabetically and they’ll all be free agents after the season.

C Tucker Barnhart, Tigers

2022 stats: .201/.262/.232 (43 wRC+), 0 HR, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB% in 210 PA
Remaining salary: $2.33M

The Yankees have shown no interest in changing their catching mix, and even if Kyle Higashioka or Jose Trevino got hurt, they have Ben Rortvedt waiting in Triple-A. Rob Brantly too. It would take multiple catching injuries for the Yankees to pursue a catcher from outside the organization, so consider Barnhart a long shot.

Barnhart, 31, went back to switch-hitting this year after exclusively hitting left-handed for a few seasons and the result is the worst year of his career, so that ain’t working. Barnhart is a good defender and that’s how he makes his money. He’s still owed enough money that the Tigers might let him go just to save a few bucks amid a lost season.

OF Ben Gamel, Pirates

2022 stats: .242/.338/.371 (104 wRC+), 4 HR, 25.2 K%, 12.0 BB% in 266 PA
Remaining salary: $559,800

Gamel, a former Yankee and Yankees prospect, is about as good a candidate to be moved in an August waiver claim as anyone. He does enough damage against righties (.259/.349/.412 and 115 wRC+ this year) and plays good enough defense in the corners to be a viable platoon bat. The Pirates are loaded with lefty hitting outfield prospects. Letting Gamel go to save a few bucks and get a look at the kids down the stretch seems very possible.

The Yankees aren’t hurting for outfielders right now, plus Harrison Bader is expected back in a few weeks and Estevan Florial is still in Triple-A. Like Barnhart, Gamel is someone they would only pursue in the event of multiple injuries. And I think, given who would have to get hurt for the Yankees to turn to someone like Gamel, it would be a disaster scenario and the Yankees would be doing little more than trying to bottle lightning.

LHP Rich Hill, Red Sox

2022 stats: 4.52 ERA (4.16 FIP), 18.8 K%, 7.3 BB%, 39.4 GB% in 73.2 IP
Remaining salary: $1.56M

The Red Sox – the last place Red Sox – have several waiver salary dump candidates, though some are more likely to move than others, and there’s also the question of whether the Red Sox would agree to something like this to help the Yankees. I guess it depends on the player, right? The Red Sox wouldn’t send Xander Bogaerts to the Yankees, but might be okay with Hill.

From 2016-21, the book on Hill was that he was a lock to miss time with injury each year, but the innings he gave his team would be excellent. Age is starting to catch up to him though and now those innings are just decent. Even Hill’s spin rates are down from elite to merely above average.

The Red Sox haven’t shown the ability to maximize pitching talent and perhaps Hill can turn back the clock a bit with a team that knows what it’s doing. As things stand, he’s more of an inventory arm, someone who can give innings late in the season when you’re lining up your postseason rotation. That’s what you’re going to find on waivers at this point of the season.

It’s worth noting Hill was born and raised in Boston and he still makes his home there. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection, though the Red Sox might run a possible waiver claim scenario by Hill before going through with it*, just as a professional courtesy. Hill doesn’t have a World Series ring yet and might be okay with it. He might also say he doesn’t want to leave his family. Dunno.

* There’s always a chance another team claims the player before he gets to you, in which case your plan falls through but the other team still dumps the money. The Red Sox could say okay, we’ll let the Yankees have Hill on waivers, but there’s nothing stopping another team lower in the waiver order from claiming him first. Hill might okay a move to the Yankees only to wind up with the Blue Jays or something.

Utility man Enrique Hernandez and righty Nathan Eovaldi stand out as other potential Red Sox waiver claim candidates. Hernandez is a better version of Marwin Gonzalez, though he hasn’t played since June 7th because of a hip injury, and he recently had a setback. His status for the rest of the season is up in the air. The Red Sox can get a draft pick for Eovaldi after the season, so I imagine they’ll keep him.

SS Jose Iglesias, Rockies

2022 stats: .312/.354/.414 (104 wRC+), 3 HR, 12.8 K%, 4.4 BB% in 367 PA
Remaining salary: $1.56M

Iglesias is the obvious waiver claim target should Isiah Kiner-Falefa get hurt and miss significant time. The Rockies do weird things (like the Daniel Bard extension) and there’s no guarantee Iglesias would even be available, but the Yankees would have to at least ask. Iglesias offers the same defense-first/contact-heavy skill set as Kiner-Falefa. It’s basically a 1-to-1 swap.

Of course, the Yankees also have Oswald Peraza sitting in Triple-A, and calling him up would be a much easier (and much more popular) move than claiming Iglesias. That said, we’ve seen so many tippy top prospects (Wander Franco, Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, etc.) come up and struggle for a few weeks before finding their way as big leaguers. Iglesias as a veteran backup plan behind Peraza wouldn’t be a bad idea at all.

(My boring take is the Yankees should bring in Iglesias to replace Kiner-Falefa, but we all know that’s not going to happen.)

RHP Michael Lorenzen, Angels

2022 stats: 4.94 ERA (4.46 FIP), 18.1 K%, 9.9 BB%, 51.9 GB% in 71 IP
Remaining salary: $2.10M

The Angels use a six-man rotation because of Shohei Ohtani and they brought in pitchers who would also benefit from a six-man rotation last offseason, namely Noah Syndergaard (first year back from Tommy John surgery) and Lorenzen (transitioning from reliever to starter). It hasn’t worked like most things the Angels try, though I understand the plan.

Based on this season, Lorenzen belongs in the bullpen. His running the lowest swinging strike rate of his career and his fastball velocity has dipped 2 mph from the last two years. Also, Lorenzen got hurt. He’s currently on the injured list with a shoulder strain, though he did start a throwing program recently and is on the mend. Still, Lorenzen’s a few weeks away.

Injured players can be waived, though they must be activated within 72 hours of clearing or being claimed. Lorenzen went on the injured list July 1st and the Angels transferred him to the 60-day injured list this past weekend. The earliest he can be activated is Aug. 29th. Claim him right before the Aug. 31st postseason eligibility deadline and he must be active by Sept. 3rd.

At that point Lorenzen will still be owed about $1.27M in salary. Would the pitching needy Angels let Lorenzen go just to save that money in the season’s final month? I think it’s very possible. The season is lost and they have a few young pitchers they’re taking a look at down the stretch, and the six-man rotation means none have workload concerns.

Lorenzen is a power sinker guy and we know the Yankees love power sinker guys. Plus he has experience starting and relieving. If things get messy the next few weeks and the Yankees find themselves short on arms, yeah, Lorenzen would be a potential target to help cover innings. Not a great one target, mind you, but this is what’s available in August.

LHP Drew Smyly, Cubs

2022 stats: 3.97 ERA (4.48 FIP), 18.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 42.7 GB% in 65.2 IP
Remaining salary: $1.63M

I was a bit surprised no team bit on Smyly at the trade deadline. He’s affordable, he can start or relieve, and he still misses bats with his curveball. An oblique strain cost Smyly a few weeks earlier this summer, but he’s healthy now, and he fired 6.1 shutout innings against an admittedly weak Marlins lineup over the weekend. He’s a useful big leaguer.

The Yankees would pursue a waiver claim with Smyly for the same reasons they would pursue one with Lorenzen: things go sideways with the pitching staff the next few weeks and they begin to run short on arms. They would very likely be doomed in that case, but they’d still need guys to eat up innings, and there’s little reason for the Cubs to make Smyly off-limits.

Heck, letting the Yankees have Smyly would open a 40-man roster spot and a rotation spot for Hayden Wesneski, who the Yankees sent the Cubs in the Scott Effross trade. I’m sure Chicago wants to get a look at Wesneski at some point, so it would be a win-win. I hope it doesn’t come to this, but if the Yankees need a starter at some point, Smyly is probably as good as it gets.

IF Donovan Solano

2022 stats: .298/.351/.446 (118 wRC+), 3 HR, 20.9 K%, 5.2 BB% in 134 PA
Remaining salary: $1.4M

Another former Yankee (nine games in 2016), Solano didn’t make his season debut until June 22nd because of a Spring Training hamstring injury that took a while to heal. He’s carved out a niche as a righty platoon bat (.323/.366/.472 and 126 wRC+ against lefties since 2019) and is good enough defensively. Shifts and good positioning help mask his range issues.

The downside here is Solano is close to a second base only guy. He’s played some third base this year but hasn’t played much shortstop at all at the MLB level. Pretty much the last thing the Yankees need is a righty hitting second baseman. If there’s an injury, Solano would be a solid fill-in, and I’m certain the Reds would give him away to shed thae money.

(The waiver order this time of year is reverse order of the standings by league, so Solano would have to go through the entire National League and most of the American League before the Yankees have a shot at him. Given his lefty mashing capabilities, he would probably get claimed before getting to the Yankees. He’d fit the Braves well while Ozzie Albies is hurt, for example.)

4. Yankees claim Bard. Over the weekend the Yankees claimed righty reliever Luke Bard from the Rays. This was not a salary dump situation like we just discussed. Bard was designated for assignment last week to open 40-man roster space and the Yankees grabbed him. They have to replenish their pitching depth a bit after trading away three Triple-A pitchers last week.

Bard, 31, is Daniel’s younger brother, and he allowed three runs in 14 innings with Tampa earlier this season. He owns a 4.50 ERA (5.07 FIP) with meh strikeout (20.5%) and walk (7.6%) rates in 80 big league innings, most with the Angels. Bard has a mid-90s fastball and a mid-90s breaking ball*, both with a ton of spin …

• Fastball: 2,565 rpm (MLB average: 2,267 rpm)
• Breaking Ball: 2,731 rpm (MLB average: 2,447 rpm)

… but, for whatever reason, doesn’t miss bats and gives up a lot of dingers. Even in Triple-A, he has a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 1.55 HR/9 in over 100 career innings. The Yankees deserve the benefit of the doubt with pitchers who can spin the ball, but Bard is in his fourth organization now, and the previous three all thought they could unlock him. Still, the Yankees will try.

More than anything, Bard gives the Yankees another arm for Triple-A. JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski were traded last week and Clarke Schmidt (sent down), Mitch Spence (promoted from Double-A), and Ryan Weber (had been in the bullpen) took their rotation spots. Bard takes Weber’s bullpen spot so the Yankees don’t have to promote a younger player they don’t want to promote just yet. Not much more to say than that.

* Bard can change the shape on his breaking ball so sometimes it looks like a curveball and sometimes looks like a slider, but it’s the same pitch. For all I know he might not even change the shape intentionally. It could just be a lack of consistency.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Aaron Judge needs 19 home runs in the Yankees’ final 53 games to reach 62 homers and break Roger Maris’ American League single-season record. FanGraphs ran the projections and gives Judge a 21.3% chance to get to 62 dingers. Pretty good odds, no? Better than a one in five chance he does it. They also give him a 0.43% chance to hit 74 homers and set a new MLB single-season record, and a 0.01% chance to hit 81 homers. Never tell me the odds! … In a notes column Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) says the Yankees did the Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader trade because they believe Bader will be more valuable this postseason and through 2023. I mean, duh. Why else would they do it? Rosenthal also says the Yankees pursued deals for Carlos Rodon and Tarik Skubal. I like Skubal and I wonder whether the Yankees will make another run at him after the season. Only problem is the offseason is precisely when a team like the Tigers can talk itself into contending next year, and thus keeping a guy like Skubal. I guess we’ll see … FanGraphs ranked the prospects traded at the deadline and they have Ken Waldichuk at No. 3, behind only Noelvi Marte (Luis Castillo trade) and CJ Abrams (Juan Soto trade). They are easily the highest on Waldichuk among the various scouting publications and have him as a top 35 prospect in baseball. Anyway, they rank new addition Clayton Beeter (Joey Gallo trade) a few spots higher than Hayden Wesneski (Scott Effross trade), just to give you an idea of what kinda prospect the Yankees got for Gallo. Better than I expected … And finally, a bit of a weird one to close out today’s post. Righty Alex Vizcaino, my No. 13 prospect last year and part of the Anthony Rizzo trade, never reported to Spring Training with the Cubs this year and is on the restricted list, and is home in the Dominican Republic. Last spring he told TUDN (translated article) his first love is basketball, and he only played baseball because his father pushed him to do it. Vizcaino missed a lot of time with a shoulder injury last season and pitched poorly when he was on the mound. Sounds like he might’ve just quit baseball altogether after that. Huh. Vizcaino was a small bonus signing with the Yankees back in the day (only $14,000), Hope he’s doing well with whatever he’s doing these days.

(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)